Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions, important information, logical analysis, and trading strategies of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, cast aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. Overall, the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies will bring inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is also unknown. Precious metals are expected to remain in a pattern of being easy to rise and difficult to fall. Other metals are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and market sentiment, showing different trends and investment suggestions [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold fell 1.3% to $3386.7 per ounce after three - day gains, London silver fell 0.12% to $39.216 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold futures fell 0.78% to 785.26 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures fell 0.36% to 9431 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index fell 0.18% to 97.214, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.39%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.21% to 7.1547 [3]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in trade negotiations between the US and other major economies, and the Federal Reserve's situation has eased market risk - aversion. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 37.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 61.2% [3]. - **Logical Analysis**: The uncertainty of US tariffs and policies will bring inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is also unknown. Precious metals are expected to remain in a pattern of being easy to rise and difficult to fall [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider holding long positions based on the 5 - day moving average for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [5][6][7]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 79680 yuan per ton, down 0.16%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 1404 lots to 513,000 lots. The overnight LME copper closed at $9933.5 per ton, up 0.36%. The LME inventory decreased by 25 tons to 125,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 418 tons to 244,000 tons [9][10]. - **Important Information**: The output of Vale and MMG's copper mines increased. Kazakhstan plans to double copper production by 2030, and a Canadian mining company hopes its project will be put into production in 2030. The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st, with a 50% tariff rate [13][14][15]. - **Logical Analysis**: The short - term market has increased expectations for a new round of supply - side reform and anti - deflation, and copper prices are running strongly. Supply is high, and it is in the consumption off - season, with limited upside potential [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to run strongly in the short - term for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [16]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session alumina 2509 contract fell 53 yuan to 3366 yuan per ton. The spot price in the north rose, and the national weighted index also increased [18]. - **Important Information**: Policies to eliminate backward production capacity are about to be released. There were spot transactions in Shandong and Vietnam. The alumina warehouse receipts on July 23 were 6922 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The production of some factories in Shanxi has changed [19][20][21]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market has optimistic expectations for policies, but details are yet to be determined. The current warehouse receipts are at a low level. If the increase in warehouse receipts is limited, the alumina price will still be supported above the full cost of high - cost production capacity [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Alumina prices will fluctuate widely in the short - term for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [23][24]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract rose 70 yuan per ton to 20960 yuan per ton. The spot price of aluminum ingots in different regions increased. The price of thermal coal also rose [26]. - **Important Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major markets increased, and the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The housing completion area decreased, and there were trade negotiations between the US and other countries. The output of some aluminum plants increased, and the export and import volume of aluminum products changed [27][30][31]. - **Logical Analysis**: The negotiation of tariffs has made progress, and the LME aluminum price has rebounded. Domestically, policies to eliminate backward production capacity are expected to boost aluminum prices. The aluminum rod production has decreased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots may increase slightly. The aluminum consumption off - season may not be too serious [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices will run strongly in the short - term for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [32]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 20140 yuan per ton. The spot price in different regions remained unchanged [35]. - **Important Information**: The weighted average full cost of the casting aluminum alloy industry in June increased, and the profit margin narrowed. The weekly production of casting aluminum alloy increased [35]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of alloy ingot enterprises is restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and the demand is affected by the off - season. The futures price is mainly affected by the cost and aluminum price. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of buying spot and selling far - month futures [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy prices will fluctuate at a high level following the aluminum price for unilateral trading; consider arbitrage when the spot - futures price difference is above 300 - 400 yuan; hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [37][38]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The overnight LME zinc rose 0.23% to $2860 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2509 rose 0.15% to 22940 yuan per ton. The spot trading in Shanghai was light, and the spot premium and discount were weak [41]. - **Important Information**: The zinc production of some companies changed. From January to May, the global zinc concentrate production increased, while the refined zinc production decreased, and there was a cumulative surplus [42][43]. - **Logical Analysis**: Zinc prices may rebound in the short - term, but in the long - term, the supply of the mine end is sufficient, and the consumption is in the off - season, with the domestic social inventory likely to increase [44][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and profitable long positions can consider partial profit - taking; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [46][47]. Lead - **Market Review**: The overnight LME lead rose 0.69% to $2028.5 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2509 rose 0.03% to 16910 yuan per ton. The spot price remained unchanged, and the trading was light [49]. - **Important Information**: The supply of waste lead - acid batteries is stable, and the import and export volume of lead - acid batteries changed [49][50]. - **Logical Analysis**: In the short - term, the supply of lead ingots may improve, and the consumption of lead - acid batteries is not good but has peak - season expectations [51][52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable long positions can leave the market temporarily, and try to go long lightly at low prices; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [53]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The overnight LME nickel rose to $15575 per ton, and the inventory decreased. The Shanghai nickel rose to 123660 yuan per ton. The premium of spot nickel changed [55]. - **Important Information**: There was a project adjustment plan for nickel powder production. The third - round Sino - US trade negotiations will be held, and relevant work has been carried out for the problems of key enterprises in the non - ferrous metal industry [56]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market has optimistic expectations for policies, but nickel supply and demand are in surplus, and it is in the off - season. The short - term price follows the macro - sentiment [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the macro - atmosphere in the short - term for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options for options [58][59][60]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main stainless - steel SS2509 contract fell to 12900 yuan per ton, and the spot price of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel was reported [62]. - **Important Information**: The purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Shanxi Taigang decreased, and the high - nickel pig iron in Indonesia was traded [63]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market has optimistic expectations for policies, but the actual demand is not good. The cost has changed, and the market pays attention to the overall atmosphere [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stainless - steel prices will be strong in a volatile manner for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [65][66]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures rose 0.58% after a sharp rise and fall, and the spot price rose [68][69]. - **Important Information**: A monomer enterprise in Shandong entered maintenance, and the supply decreased [70]. - **Logical Analysis**: The production of leading enterprises may decline in July, and there is a supply - demand gap before their resumption. The long - term trend depends on the resumption rhythm, and there is upward pressure in the short - term [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: Exit long positions for unilateral trading; hold put options for options; participate in reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts and positive arbitrage for the 11th and 10th contracts for arbitrage [72]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures rose 5.5% after a sharp callback, and the spot price increased [74]. - **Important Information**: The solar power generation capacity increased, but the new photovoltaic installation in June decreased [75]. - **Logical Analysis**: The increase in polysilicon prices can be transmitted to the downstream. The market has strong expectations for capacity integration, and the future trend depends on the number of warehouse receipts [76]. - **Trading Strategy**: Gradually exit long positions as the pressure on the market increases; buy protective put options for options; participate in reverse arbitrage for far - month contracts for arbitrage [77]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main lithium carbonate 2509 contract fell to 69380 yuan per ton, and the spot price increased [79]. - **Important Information**: The lithium concentrate export volume of Zimbabwe increased, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange raised the trading fee [80]. - **Logical Analysis**: Observe whether the trend changes after the increase in fees and warehouse receipts. There are concerns about supply reduction, and pay attention to relevant factors in the future [80]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the short - term trend for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options for options [80][81][82].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Pay attention to the point when the supply of circulating spot goods eases and the change in the overall long - short sentiment of commodities. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. Recently, the policy expectation of supply - side contraction has increased, the overall bullish sentiment in the commodity market is strong, and the low volume of alumina warehouse receipts registration has driven the short - term strength of futures prices. However, based on the current aluminum industry development plan and the energy consumption level of alumina equipment, it is expected that there will be no large - scale capacity elimination. Some device rectification plans may be implemented, but the impact on the supply side is expected to be limited. In the future, the implementation of supply - side policies still needs to be observed in the short term. The pattern of alumina over - capacity this year may still be difficult to change. With the continuous decline in the current warehouse receipt registration volume, there are uncertainties on both the long and short sides. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. In the future, it is necessary to mainly track the point when the supply of circulating spot goods eases and the change in the overall long - short sentiment of commodities, and wait for the opportunity to lay out short positions. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3200 - 3700 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to warehouse receipt registration, supply - side policies, and Guinea's ore policies [2][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 "Elimination of Backward Capacity" Policy Impact - The "anti - involution policy" introduced by relevant national departments has promoted a strong bullish sentiment in the commodity market, and the Wenhua Commodity Index has risen significantly out of the bottom shock range. The policy expectation has further strengthened, driving the alumina futures price to rise sharply with heavy volume on the night session of July 18. The current energy consumption standards for alumina plants are mainly based on the national standard GB21346 - 2022. Although some alumina production capacities have a long service life, most of them have been technically upgraded and replaced in recent years to meet the energy consumption benchmark level. For example, Chalco's alumina smelting energy consumption reached 100% of the energy - efficiency benchmark level in 2022, and Guangxi Guangtou's new project also has a very low comprehensive energy consumption. Weiqiao has also achieved low - energy consumption production through various measures. The "Aluminum Industry High - Quality Development Implementation Plan (2025 - 2027)" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology at the beginning of the year has also set new standards for alumina projects. Based on the current aluminum industry development plan and the energy consumption level of alumina equipment, it is expected that there will be no large - scale capacity elimination, and some device rectification plans may be implemented, but the impact on the supply side is expected to be limited [5][6][7]. 3.2 Excess Supply - Demand Structure and Scarce Circulating Spot Goods - As of July 18, the latest weekly output of alumina reached 1.792 million tons, and the output rebounded to a new high this year. The total social inventory of alumina increased by 39,000 tons to 3.989 million tons compared with the previous week. Affected by factors such as over - selling by previous holders, unstable product quality, and overdue long - term order delivery, the finished product inventory of alumina plants has been directly transferred to downstream aluminum plants as raw material inventory, and the logistics and transportation in the northern region has been blocked, resulting in obvious backlogs of in - transit inventory. Therefore, the circulating spot goods in the market have been continuously tight. Affected by this, the alumina warehouse receipt registration volume has decreased for two consecutive months, and the current registered warehouse receipt volume is only 6,900 tons, a significant reduction from the previous high of 299,000 tons. In addition, the current inventory in the delivery warehouse is only 44,700 tons, with a large outflow compared with the previous period. Although the supply - demand structure remains in excess, the scarcity of circulating spot goods has led to more premium transactions, and the low warehouse receipt registration volume has intensified the delivery game on the capital side, driving the continuous strengthening of futures prices. Looking forward, the implementation of supply - side policies still needs to be observed in the short term. The pattern of alumina over - capacity this year may still be difficult to change, but with the continuous decline in the current warehouse receipt registration volume, there are uncertainties on both the long and short sides. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. In the future, it is necessary to mainly track the point when the supply of circulating spot goods eases and the change in the overall long - short sentiment of commodities, and wait for the opportunity to lay out short positions. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3200 - 3700 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt registration, supply - side policies, and Guinea's ore policies [9][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent fluctuations in alumina prices, with a significant increase observed in July 2023, where prices rose by 8.39% on July 21 and 6.07% on July 22, reaching a peak of 3577 yuan/ton from 2818 yuan/ton in mid-June, marking an increase of nearly 27% over a month [1][2] - The domestic metallurgical-grade alumina spot price averaged 3204.9 yuan/ton on July 22, reflecting a 2.99% increase from early July, but a 17.99% decrease compared to the same period last year, indicating a mixed performance in the market [1] - Factors contributing to the recent price increase include tight domestic supply, disturbances in raw material mining, and improved macroeconomic sentiment, with many alumina companies maintaining a focus on long-term contracts due to reduced output from maintenance and production cuts [1][2] Group 2 - The electrolytic aluminum industry saw its profits reach a three-year high in June 2023, with an average complete cost of 16,200 yuan/ton and a theoretical profit of 4,372 yuan/ton, which expanded by 357 yuan/ton from the previous month, driven by rising aluminum prices and stable demand [2] - Despite the recent price recovery in alumina futures, analysts believe that the market will experience a supply surplus due to the commissioning of new projects, which may lead to weaker price performance in 2025 compared to the high levels seen in 2024 [2][3] - Short-term expectations indicate that tight alumina supply and optimistic policy-driven sentiment may support continued strong performance in spot prices, but a shift to a more balanced supply-demand dynamic is anticipated in the latter half of 2025 [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily morning observation of non - ferrous and precious metals on July 22, 2025, covering multiple metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, etc. [1][2] Group 2: Precious Metals Market Review - London gold reached a five - week high, closing up 1.4% at $3396.67 per ounce; London silver hit a one - week high, closing up 1.97% at $38.897 per ounce. Affected by the overseas market, Shanghai gold futures rose 0.76% to 785.76 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose 1.85% to 9420 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index fell 0.64% to 97.853, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.3802%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar strengthened, rising 0.07% to 7.1707. [2] Important Information - EU diplomats are exploring broader counter - measures against US tariffs but prefer negotiation; the US Treasury Secretary is more concerned about high - quality deals; Indonesia's 19% US tariff may take effect by August 1. A US Republican congressman accused Powell of perjury, and the Fed added a video tour of its headquarters renovation on its website. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 97.4% and in September is 41.4%. [2] Logic Analysis - With the approaching of reciprocal tariffs, market concerns resurfaced. Trump's pressure on Powell also increased market unease and loosened the expectation of the Fed maintaining high rates. [2] Trading Strategy - For the precious metals market, consider holding long positions for the unilateral strategy, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [4] Group 3: Copper Market Review - The night - session of SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 79770 yuan per ton, up 0.64%, and the SHFE copper index added 689 lots to 514,000 lots. LME copper closed at $9867 per ton, up 0.74%. LME inventory increased by 100 tons to 122,000 tons, and COMEX inventory rose by 1023 tons to 248,000 tons. [6] Important Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a growth - stabilizing plan for ten key industries. In June 2025, China's refined copper imports were 337,000 tons, up 15.15% month - on - month and 9.23% year - on - year; scrap copper imports were 183,244.238 tons, down 1.06% month - on - month but up 8.49% year - on - year. [6] Logic Analysis - The expected supply - side reform boosts market sentiment, but the current consumption is in the off - season, and the upside of copper prices is limited. [8][9] Trading Strategy - For copper, the short - term price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions for the unilateral strategy, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [12] Group 4: Alumina Market Review - The night - session of alumina 2509 contract rose 118 yuan to 3430 yuan per ton, up 3.56%. Spot prices in different regions also increased. The price of thermal coal at Jinzheng Northern Port also went up. [11] Important Information - The government will promote the construction of a unified national market and eliminate backward production capacity. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a growth - stabilizing plan for key industries. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for 10,000 tons of alumina, and the winning bid price was 3430 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan from last week. The alumina warehouse receipts on the SHFE were 6922 tons, unchanged from the previous day. A large - scale alumina enterprise in Shandong resumed production after maintenance, and a company in Guizhou will have a 10 - day maintenance. As of Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 112.92 million tons, with 93.85 million tons in operation, up 300,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 83.1%. [11][14][15] Logic Analysis - The expected policy of eliminating backward production capacity and low warehouse receipts drive up the futures price. The supply - demand of alumina remains in a tight balance, and attention should be paid to the import market after the futures price rises. [16] Trading Strategy - For alumina, the short - term price is expected to be strong but volatile. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high for the unilateral strategy, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [17] Group 5: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session of SHFE aluminum 2508 contract rose 100 yuan per ton to 20880 yuan per ton. On July 21, the spot prices in East, South, and Central China all increased. [19] Important Information - The national aluminum ingot inventory increased by 9000 tons from last Thursday. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 2804 tons to 63744 tons on July 21. From January to June, the completed floor area of housing decreased by 14.8%, and in June, it decreased by 2.15% year - on - year. New US tariffs may take effect in early August, and the EU is considering counter - measures. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a growth - stabilizing plan for key industries. In June, the export of aluminum products decreased, and the import of aluminum ingots decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. On July 20, a 50,000 - ton capacity of an electrolytic aluminum project in Baise entered the restart stage. [20][21][22] Logic Analysis - The new US tariffs in early August bring uncertainty, and domestic policy expectations are also a factor. The negative feedback in the fundamentals continues, but the demand in the off - season may not be too weak, and the market's optimistic sentiment about the domestic policy of eliminating backward production capacity supports the aluminum price. [22] Trading Strategy - For electrolytic aluminum, the short - term price is expected to be strong and volatile, and it is recommended to go long on dips for the unilateral strategy, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [23] Group 6: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session of cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 120 yuan to 20220 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions all increased. [25] Important Information - In June 2025, the weighted average full cost of the Chinese cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry was 19551 yuan per ton, up 14 yuan from May. The industry had a theoretical loss of 41 yuan per ton. As of July 17, the weekly output of cast aluminum alloy increased by 2300 tons to 142,500 tons, and the weekly output of ADC12 increased by 4000 tons to 79,400 tons. [26] Logic Analysis - The supply of alloy ingot enterprises is restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and the demand is supported by motorcycle parts orders but weak in automobile parts orders. The futures price is mainly affected by the cost and aluminum price, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity between the spot and futures. [26] Trading Strategy - For cast aluminum alloy, the price is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to consider spot - futures arbitrage when the price difference is above 300 - 400 yuan for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options. [27] Group 7: Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc market rose 0.73% to $2844.5 per ton, and the SHFE zinc 2509 contract rose 0.39% to 22875 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc index position decreased by 1896 lots to 236,500 lots. The spot market was weak, with low trading volume. [29] Important Information - As of July 21, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 92,700 tons, down 40 tons from July 14 and 80 tons from July 17. In June 2025, the import of zinc concentrates was 330,000 tons, down 32.87% month - on - month but up 22.42% year - on - year; the import of refined zinc was 36,100 tons, up 34.98% month - on - month and 3.24% year - on - year; the export of refined zinc was 1900 tons, with a net import of 34,100 tons. The export of galvanized sheets and die - cast zinc alloys increased, while the export of zinc oxide increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. [30][32][33] Logic Analysis - The zinc price may rebound in the short - term due to macro and capital factors, but in the long - term, the supply of zinc ore is sufficient, the supply of refined zinc is expected to increase, and the consumption is in the off - season, so the domestic social inventory may continue to accumulate. [33] Trading Strategy - For zinc, the short - term price may be strong, and it is recommended to go long in the short - term. After the macro sentiment fades, consider shorting at high prices according to the inventory accumulation. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [34] Group 8: Lead Market Review - The LME lead market rose 0.17% to $2015 per ton, and the SHFE lead 2509 contract rose 0.18% to 16995 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead index position decreased by 351 lots to 98,500 lots. The spot price of SMM1 lead increased by 100 yuan per ton, and the transaction improved. [37] Important Information - As of July 21, the SMM five - region lead ingot inventory was 71,300 tons, up 7900 tons from July 14 and 2300 tons from July 17. A large - scale secondary lead smelter in North China will resume production in early August, affecting the July output by about 2000 tons. In June 2025, the import of lead - acid batteries was 486,100 units, up 14.73% month - on - month and 8.51% year - on - year; the export was 18.7446 million units, down 6.69% month - on - month and 20.53% year - on - year. [38] Logic Analysis - In the short - term, the supply of lead ingots may improve, and the demand from downstream battery enterprises may increase in the traditional peak season. The lead price is supported by the cost and consumption expectations, and may be strong under the improving macro environment. [38] Trading Strategy - For lead, it is recommended to hold long positions for the unilateral strategy, sell put options for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options. [39] Group 9: Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel price rose 265 to $15510 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 300 to 207,976 tons. The SHFE nickel main contract NI2509 rose 1830 to 123,700 yuan per ton, and the index position increased by 6896 lots. The premiums of Jinchuan, Russian nickel, and electrowon nickel changed differently. [41] Important Information - Nornickel lowered its 2025 nickel production forecast to 196,000 - 204,000 tons. Lifezone Metals released a feasibility study report on its Kabanga nickel project, which is expected to produce 902,000 tons of nickel per year. In June 2025, China's unforged nickel imports were 17,200 tons, down 2.67% month - on - month but up 130.76% year - on - year; the refined nickel exports were 10,100 tons, down 27.41% month - on - month and 2.01% year - on - year. The net import of unforged nickel in June was 7072 tons. [42][43] Logic Analysis - The market is optimistic about the stimulus policy in the second half of the year. Nornickel's production cut helps relieve the oversupply. The fundamentals of nickel are not prominent, and the price may rebound in the short - term but the increase may be limited. [46] Trading Strategy - For nickel, the price may rise in the short - term following the macro environment. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and sell deep - out - of - the - money put options for options. [47] Group 10: Stainless Steel Market Review - The main SS2509 contract rose 35 to 12905 yuan per ton, and the index position increased by 5967 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range. [49] Important Information - In June 2025, Indonesia's exports of 300 - series stainless steel products to Taiwan region of China decreased sharply. The environmental assessment of an 80,000 - ton stainless steel cold - rolling project in Guangxi was approved. A project of Guangdong Guangqing Metal Technology Co., Ltd. to improve the quality of stainless steel and build a continuous casting machine will start construction in September 2025 and is expected to be put into operation in March 2026, with an annual output of 400,000 tons of 400 - series stainless steel billets. [49] Logic Analysis - The market is optimistic about the stimulus policy, and the stainless steel price is expected to be strong in the short - term. However, the actual demand is not optimistic, and the market is trading on the macro logic. [50] Trading Strategy - For stainless steel, the price is expected to rise in a volatile manner for the unilateral strategy, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage. [52] Group 11: Industrial Silicon Market Review - The main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 9260 yuan per ton, up 4.99%. Spot prices also increased significantly. [54] Important Information - A fire broke out at Shandong Zibo Dongyue Organic Silicon Material Co., Ltd., which has a methyl chlorosilane monomer production capacity of 600,000 tons per year. [54] Logic Analysis - Leading enterprises are reducing production, and the复产 capacity in the southwest is small - scale. There is a supply - demand gap in industrial silicon before the leading enterprises resume production. The inventory is mainly in the trading sector, and the futures price increase forms a positive feedback with the spot price. In the long - term, the market reversal depends on the leading enterprises'复产 rhythm. [54] Trading Strategy - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to take a long - biased approach for the unilateral strategy, buy protective put options for options, and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts and positive arbitrage for the 11th and 10th contracts for arbitrage. [55] Group 12: Polysilicon Market Review - No specific market review information is provided. Important Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a growth - stabilizing plan for key industries. The US solar manufacturing and trade alliance has filed an anti - dumping/anti - subsidy investigation against India, Indonesia, and Laos. [59] Logic Analysis - The polysilicon market is full of rumors, and the price increase can be transmitted to the downstream. The futures price is expected to fluctuate between 40,000 and 47,000 yuan per ton. The increase in industrial silicon price drives up the cost of polysilicon, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term until the number of warehouse receipts increases. [59][60] Trading Strategy - For polysilicon, it is recommended to pay attention to the number of warehouse receipts for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for options, and conduct reverse arbitrage for the far - month contracts for arbitrage. [60] Group 13: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2509 contract of lithium carbonate rose 1760 to 71,280 yuan per ton, and the index position increased by 17,000 lots. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 210 to 9969 tons. The spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate also increased. [62] Important Information

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant recovery in commodity prices, driven by policy support and improvements in supply-demand dynamics, indicating potential profitability recovery for companies in affected industries [1][2] - Recent price increases in commodities such as polysilicon, lithium carbonate, coking coal, and alumina suggest a positive shift in the market, with polysilicon futures rising over 28% in the last 10 trading days and lithium carbonate surpassing 70,000 yuan per ton [1] - The Chinese government's policies focusing on "anti-involution," "expanding domestic demand," and "stabilizing growth" are aimed at addressing low-price competition, enhancing consumption, and ensuring macroeconomic stability, respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The collaboration between "anti-involution," "expanding domestic demand," and "stabilizing growth" is essential for creating a conducive environment for economic recovery, with consumer spending contributing 52% to economic growth in the first half of the year [2] - The article suggests that with continued policy support, the commodity sector may transition from cyclical growth to sustainable growth, leading to a healthier industrial ecosystem and promoting high-quality economic development [2]

Group 1 - Recent surge in commodity prices, with polysilicon futures rising over 28% in the last 10 trading days, lithium carbonate futures exceeding 70,000 yuan/ton, and coking coal and glass futures increasing by 20.26% and 14.44% respectively [1] - The price recovery indicates an improvement in the supply-demand dynamics, suggesting potential recovery in corporate profitability [1] - Key drivers of this price increase stem from ongoing policy initiatives aimed at promoting economic stability and growth, including measures to combat disorderly low-price competition and enhance domestic demand [1] Group 2 - The policies of "anti-involution," "expanding domestic demand," and "stabilizing growth" are interrelated and mutually reinforcing, with each supporting the others [2] - In the first half of the year, final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth, indicating a continuous release of consumption potential [2] - With policy support, commodities may transition from cyclical growth to sustainable growth, leading to a healthier industrial ecosystem and promoting high-quality economic development [2]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide market is experiencing price increases driven by favorable policies, low inventory levels, and supply disruptions from Guinea, despite long-term oversupply concerns [2][10][15]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of aluminum oxide has surged due to multiple factors, including supply-side reforms expected from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which aims to stabilize growth in key industries [2]. - On July 18, aluminum oxide inventory dropped significantly to 6,922 tons, raising concerns about liquidity and potential short squeeze risks [2][7]. - The main contract for aluminum oxide reached a five-month high, with trading volume increasing to nearly 1 million lots [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Inventory - Guinea's rainy season is impacting bauxite supply, with a recent announcement of new reforms aimed at increasing transparency in bauxite pricing [4][5]. - Domestic bauxite inventory remains high, with port stocks at 27.04 million tons, despite a slight weekly decline [4]. - The overall supply of imported bauxite is under pressure, with a significant drop in shipments to China, down 36.8% week-on-week [5]. Group 3: Production and Capacity - Domestic aluminum oxide production capacity has increased, reaching a new high of 1.785 million tons as of early July, with production continuing to rise [11]. - New production capacities are expected to come online in the second half of 2025, potentially leading to a further oversupply situation [13]. - The overall inventory of aluminum oxide in China has increased to 3.989 million tons, indicating a trend of accumulation [13]. Group 4: Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy has positively influenced market sentiment, although its direct impact on the aluminum oxide sector may be limited due to the absence of significant outdated capacity [10]. - The current market dynamics suggest that while short-term prices may remain strong, long-term oversupply expectations could lead to price stabilization or declines [15].

Report Title - "Domestic 'Anti-Involution' Drives Market Sentiment Upward - Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report 2025.07.21" [1] Report Author - Liu Peiyang [2] Report Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views Copper - Macro: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non-ferrous metals, providing some support. Overseas tariff policies are fluctuating, and the Fed's interest rate cut path needs further observation [3]. - Fundamental: Although LME copper inventories have increased slightly, they remain at historical lows. Demand has weakened significantly as prices rebounded, showing a phased supply - demand weakness due to the traditional off - season [3]. - Overall: The impact of tariff shocks on copper prices is gradually digested. After prices stabilize, a bullish approach is recommended [3]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macro: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non-ferrous metals, providing some support. Overseas tariff policies are fluctuating, and the Fed's interest rate cut path needs further observation [5]. - Fundamental: With the release of supply increments and the suppression of the consumption off - season, the expectation of inventory accumulation is still strong [5]. - Overall: The improvement of domestic macro expectations significantly boosts industrial products. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [5]. Alumina - Macro: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non-ferrous metals, providing some support. Overseas tariff policies are fluctuating, and the Fed's interest rate cut path needs further observation [7]. - Fundamental: In the week of July 17, the operating capacity of alumina increased by 500,000 tons/year to 89.07 million tons/year, and the weekly inventory of alumina in electrolytic aluminum plants increased by about 25,800 tons, putting some pressure on spot prices [7]. - Overall: The expectation of supply - side reform and the decline of warehouse receipts to a low level. Alumina breaks through the low - level oscillation range upwards, and a bullish approach is recommended [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Weekly Price Changes**: Provided the weekly cumulative price change statistics of various metals from July 14 - 18 [14]. - **Weekly News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of ten key industries, including non-ferrous metals. In the first half of the year, the non-ferrous metal industry had positive growth in production, revenue, and profit, and its green - low - carbon level improved significantly. Chile will discuss the impact of US copper tariffs. LME's 8 Hong Kong approved warehousing facilities started operation. Kazakhstan plans to restrict the export of certain key products and cancel the export tariff on gallium [15]. 2. Macro Analysis - **Domestic**: In Q2 2025, GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year. In June, industrial added value increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 4.8% year - on - year. From January to June, fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% year - on - year. Exports supported industrial production, but real estate investment declined further [19]. - **Overseas**: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year. After the CPI release, the US dollar index and Treasury yields rose, and the expectation of interest rate cuts decreased slightly [22]. 3. Copper Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The processing fee TC remained weak [28]. - **Futures Market**: COMEX's net long positions increased [31]. - **Overseas Market**: The US dollar index rebounded from a low level [35]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, SMM's national mainstream copper inventories decreased by 4,300 tons to 143,300 tons compared to Monday, and were 231,800 tons lower than the same period last year [41]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis - **Domestic Market**: The spot premium widened [44]. - **Foreign Market**: The US dollar index rebounded from a low level [48]. - **Inventory**: The report provided data on electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod social inventories, as well as LME and SHFE aluminum inventories [50]. - **Downstream开工**: As of July 17, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing industries increased by 0.2 percentage points to 58.8%. Different sectors had different trends, and SMM expected the weekly operating rate to decline by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% this week [52]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: As of July 17, the SMM ADC12 price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 20,000 yuan/ton. The industry faced cost and demand challenges, and prices were expected to fluctuate narrowly [56]. - **Cost and Profit**: The report analyzed the relationship between the price of electrolytic aluminum and the prices of alumina, pre - baked anodes, and thermal coal [60]. 5. Alumina Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Spot prices remained stable [63]. - **Futures Market**: Inventory futures continued to decline [65]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply changed little, with some areas having tight supply due to maintenance. Demand increased as some electrolytic aluminum enterprises resumed production or transferred capacity [70]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of the week of July 17, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2,995.43 yuan/ton, and the average profit was 193.15 yuan/ton [71].

转自：新华财经 从整个商品市场来看，氧化铝供需矛盾并不突出，而且市场尚有盈利，但为何涨幅最大的是氧化铝？ 一德期货研报指出，近日市场传言部分行业老旧装置将加速淘汰，一份流传的统计表显示，氧化铝超10年装置占比高达45%，期货盘面表现来看，资金 是"按十大重点行业+老旧装置占比高+利润低"的特点筛选的。但是"45%的占比"这一统计结果准确性存疑，氧化铝厂可能会出现技术升级改造，但落后产 能或大幅低于此数值。 在陆俊杰看来，此前在"反内卷"预期下，钢铁、光伏等行业的上游品种已经持续上涨，而氧化铝涨幅显著落后于其他品种。在对政策的预期下，市场对氧 化铝行业的认知偏差导致其被错误类比于其他大涨的品种，进而造成快速拉涨。 氧化铝极低的持仓比也是资金参与交易的重要因素。据上海期货交易所数据，18日氧化铝仓单减少1.86万吨至0.69万吨，持仓比仅为0.09%。 新华财经北京7月21日电（记者 王小璐）21日，受宏观情绪提振，氧化铝期货主力合约盘中冲高至3405元／吨，一度触及涨停。 与期货市场的火热形成鲜明对比的是，现货市场尤为冷静。"如果说现在每吨卖到3200元，一些库存比较高的下游可能都不会去买。"上海钢联氧化铝资深 ...

金十期货热图 今日氧化铝期货盘中一度触及涨停！什么原因？后市能否继续看多？一图了解。 上述表态导致市场预期氧化铝行业将进行新一轮供给侧改革, 期货价格随之大涨。不过,行业虽然产能过剩,但不存在大量 落后产能,实际投产运行超过20年的装置较少,该消息的影响 更多集中在情绪层面。 E 中辉期货 将运行超20年的装置定义为"老旧装置",可能淘汰部分高成本 产能。事实上,因停工成本高,亏损企业更倾向"亏损卖现货" 而非停工，上述表态的直接影响有限，或影响400万~500万吨 产能,占比较少。 2氧化铝将在7月下旬开始检修? 有部分企业称,将在7月下旬开始检修。同时,当前西南部分电解 铝产能置换项目即将投产,区域内氧化铝需求有所抬升,现货供应 或收紧。不过,整体来看,氧化铝供应仍然过剩,近期全国库存持 续回升。 → 国信期货 尽管市场预期中长期供应过剩,但近期我国部分氧化铝企业进 入检修期,产量预计下降。现货市场上,氧化铝现货供应偏 紧,贸易商挺价心态较强。 3氧化铝期货会逼仓吗? 新商期货 上期所仓单库存在低位大幅去化,仓单库存降至历史极低值, 低仓单高持仓引发市场挤仓情绪。但当前卖交割窗口打开,后 续仓单库存仍存增 ...