Core Viewpoint - The oil sector experienced a rise on Tuesday, with several major companies showing significant stock price increases [1] Company Performance - Houston Energy (HUSA.US) rose over 1.8% [1] - ExxonMobil (XOM.US) increased by more than 1.7% [1] - Total (TTE.US) saw a slight increase of 0.17% [1] - Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US) surged over 3.6% [1] - ConocoPhillips (COP.US) climbed more than 2.3% [1] - Schlumberger (SLB.US) experienced a modest rise of 0.37% [1] - Marathon Oil (MRO.US) increased by over 2.4% [1]

Group 1 - The certainty of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is increasing, leading to an appreciation of the RMB and an accelerated inflow of foreign capital into Chinese assets [1][2] - Domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth, particularly in the real estate sector, are expected to improve the external environment for equity assets, suggesting a bullish outlook [1][2] - Recommended sectors include media, computer technology, electrical equipment, non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical biology [1][2] Group 2 - In the bond market, the recent marginal tightening of the funding environment has not significantly impacted the resilience of the equity market, with expectations of continued support from the central bank [2] - The basic economic indicators show a continuation of weak fundamentals, but the central bank's actions indicate a commitment to maintaining liquidity [2] - The A-share market is expected to benefit from the anticipated interest rate cuts and the favorable external environment [2] Group 3 - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is likely to create a favorable financial condition for non-U.S. markets, including Hong Kong stocks [3] - Weak demand for crude oil is projected for 2025, with ongoing supply releases putting downward pressure on oil prices [4] - The anticipated easing of financial conditions before the Federal Reserve's rate cut is expected to positively influence gold performance [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillating weakly [3][7] - Asphalt: Oscillating weakly [3][8] - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [3][8] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating weakly [3][11] - PX: Oscillating [12] - PTA: Oscillating [12][13] - Pure benzene: Oscillating [13][15] - Styrene: Oscillating [15][17] - MEG: Oscillating [17][19] - Short fiber: Oscillating [19][20] - Bottle chip: Oscillating [20][21] - Methanol: Oscillating [23][26] - Urea: Oscillating weakly [24] - LLDPE: Oscillating [27] - PP: Oscillating [28][29] - PL: Oscillating [29] - PVC: Oscillating [31] - Caustic soda: Oscillating [31][32] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors have led to a slight increase in oil prices, and domestic macroeconomic factors have boosted the prices of chemical products. The future trend depends on whether there are actual supply reduction policies [1][2][3]. - The prices of chemical products have been lifted by macro - sentiment, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be actual supply reduction in the later stage [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook - **Crude oil**: The port attacked on September 12 has resumed operation, but refineries are still frequently attacked, and the international diesel market supply is tightening. Under the background of OPEC + accelerating production increase, the supply - demand pattern shows a weak reality. The oil price is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances [7]. - **Asphalt**: The 3500 position of options has concentrated holdings, and the battle between bulls and bears is fierce. The high valuation of asphalt is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8]. - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: Russian fuel oil exports have reached a record high, and the demand outlook has deteriorated. Geopolitical upgrades have only a short - term impact on prices [8]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: It follows the oscillation of crude oil. It is facing supply increase and demand decline, and is expected to maintain low - valuation operation [11]. - **PX**: Supply has reached a high level. In the short term, it oscillates following costs and sentiment. It is necessary to pay attention to the support around 6600 [12]. - **PTA**: The return of maintenance devices has hindered the upward expectation of polyester load. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the support around 4600 [12][13]. - **Pure benzene**: Affected by styrene devices and macro factors, it rose on the day. If styrene maintenance occurs in September - October, the pattern will return to oversupply [13][15]. - **Styrene**: Affected by macro and device factors, it rebounded. In the short term, it may oscillate with a small rebound, but the inventory suppresses the increase [15][17]. - **MEG**: The port has a small inventory build - up, and it is difficult to see continuous build - up in the month. It is expected to oscillate in a range, and attention should be paid to the support around 4200 [17][19]. - **Short fiber**: It fluctuates following costs, and the demand is average. In the short term, it oscillates and sorts [19][20]. - **Bottle chip**: It has limited driving forces and follows passively. It oscillates, and the absolute value follows raw materials [20][21]. - **Methanol**: There are still contradictions between the near and far months. The futures price oscillates. There may be low - buying opportunities from September to October [23]. - **Urea**: Affected by spot quotes, the futures rebounded. The fundamentals are still loosely supplied, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [24]. - **LLDPE**: Supported by the previous low and downstream replenishment before festivals, it oscillates in the short term. The downward rhythm of oil price depends on geopolitical risks and overseas inventory accumulation [27]. - **PP**: Slightly rebounded due to increased maintenance and rising oil prices. It oscillates in the short term [28][29]. - **PL**: Supported by PDH maintenance, it oscillates in the short term [29]. - **PVC**: With weak reality and strong expectation, it oscillates. The pressure comes from long - term fundamentals, and the support comes from rising dynamic costs and improved market sentiment [31]. - **Caustic soda**: The spot price is under pressure to decline, and the futures is cautiously weak. The downward space is limited considering the alumina production expectation in the far - month [31][32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent (M1 - M2: 0.41, - 0.04), Dubai (M1 - M2: 1.75, 0.54), etc. [33] - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis, change values, and warehouse receipt numbers, like asphalt (basis: 127, - 35; warehouse receipts: 67360) [34] - **Inter - variety spreads**: There are various inter - variety spread values and changes, for example, 1 - month PP - 3MA: - 222, 2 [36] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific content for each variety (methanol, urea, styrene, etc.) is mentioned, no detailed and summarizable data or analysis is provided in the given text.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - The market is in a state of "supply reduction and demand increase" with no obvious core contradictions. For PP, due to strong propylene and propane prices, PDH and external propylene procurement profits are suppressed, leading to more unplanned maintenance and inventory decline, but the basis is still weak due to new device commissioning. For PE, current maintenance remains at a relatively high level, resulting in low short - term supply pressure, rising basis, and inventory depletion. However, attention should be paid to the supply rhythm as maintenance volume may gradually decrease from mid - September. Current new orders for demand are poor, and attention should be paid to downstream replenishment before the Double Festival [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is the market's concern about the interruption of refined oil and crude oil supply from Russia due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply has heated up, which may drive the crack spread to strengthen. At the macro level, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates soon, and the weakening of the US dollar also provides additional upward momentum for oil prices. The current market trading focus has shifted from the easing expectation to the spot supply risk dominated by geopolitical factors, and the futures price is likely to run along the upper edge of the shock range in the short term. It is recommended to mainly wait and see on the single - side, with the upper pressure of WTI at [65, 66], Brent at [68, 69], and SC at [500, 510]. Wait for opportunities to expand the spread on the option side [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the futures price has stabilized and rebounded. From the supply side, there are maintenance plans in the northwest and northeast this week, and the operating rate is expected to decline. From the demand side, the main alumina enterprises have good receiving, but the alumina itself is in an oversupply pattern, and the price has shown a downward trend recently, and most alumina plants have sufficient raw material inventory days. The non - aluminum end demand has improved in the peak season, but the support for the caustic soda price is limited. Overall, the Shandong region has significantly accumulated inventory, but the main buyers have good willingness to receive, and the spot price may tend to be stable. Therefore, the downward space of the futures price may be limited. For PVC, the futures price has shown signs of stabilizing and stopping falling. On the supply side, there are many maintenance enterprises this week, and the output is expected to decline. On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream products has increased slightly, and some enterprises are preparing inventory for the National Day. The overall supply - demand pattern shows a marginal improvement trend. The supply tension of raw material calcium carbide has gradually eased, and the price has a narrow downward trend, while the ethylene price is weakly stable, and the cost side maintains bottom support [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - For p - xylene (PX), as domestic and foreign PX maintenance devices resume operation and short - process benefits are good, PX supply gradually increases to a relatively high level. Although the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation still exists, the polyester and terminal loads are slowly recovering, providing some short - term support for demand. However, the expectation for new orders and load peaks in the future is limited. The PX supply - demand is expected to be relatively loose in September, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price has support at the low level. This week, the PX price has shifted to November and December. Under the scenario of downstream demand transfer in the fourth quarter, the positive support for PX is limited. It is expected that PX will fluctuate strongly with the oil price in the short term, but the rebound space is limited. For PTA, the PTA supply - demand is expected to be tight in September as device maintenance is still concentrated. However, due to the good liquidity in the spot market and the sales of some mainstream suppliers, the overall spot basis is weak. The demand side has some support, but the basis and processing fee repair drive are limited under the weak medium - term supply - demand expectation, and the absolute price follows the raw material fluctuation. For ethylene glycol, the supply pattern is strong in the near term and weak in the long term. The import expectation is not high in September, and as it enters the peak demand season, the polyester load increases, and the rigid demand support improves, resulting in low port inventory and a strong basis. However, the supply - demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to new device commissioning and device restart, and ethylene glycol will enter the inventory accumulation channel, with the price under pressure. For short - fiber, the short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply continues to increase, and although there is still the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" expectation, new order follow - up is insufficient, and the peak season this year is not expected to be very prosperous. Currently, short - fiber factory inventory is low, and it has relatively strong support compared to raw materials. Overall, it mainly follows the raw material fluctuation. For bottle - grade polyester chips, in September, device restart and shutdown coexist, and supply increases slightly. Considering the decline in soft drink and catering demand as the weather turns cooler, demand may decline, and inventory is expected to increase slowly. The price mainly follows the cost side, and the processing fee has limited upward space [13]. Methanol Industry - In terms of supply and demand, the inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some devices are expected to resume production in mid - September. With continuous external procurement by some olefin plants in the inland and unexpected maintenance, the inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports the price. The demand side is weak due to the off - season of traditional downstream industries. Some previously shut - down MTO plants at the port restarted last week, slightly relieving the port inventory pressure. In terms of valuation, the upstream profit is neutral, the MTO profit is marginally weakening, and the traditional downstream profit is still weak, with the overall valuation being neutral. The port is continuously accumulating a large amount of inventory, and the import volume remains high in September. The futures price fluctuates between trading the current high inventory and weak basis and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [19]. Urea Industry - The futures price of urea has rebounded, mainly due to short - covering driving the improvement of low - end spot transactions, rather than the substantial improvement of supply and demand. Device restart has brought the daily output back above 190,000 tons, and there will be further increments in the future, so the supply pressure continues to accumulate. On the demand side, it is the off - season for agriculture, the industrial demand is rigid, and the export is marginally weakening. The fundamentals do not provide continuous upward momentum. This rebound is more of a result of capital game and sentiment repair, and the upward height is limited by the dual pressures of supply expansion and export profit contraction. Attention should be paid to the restart and maintenance implementation rhythm of devices such as Henan Xinlianxin and Shanxi Tianze [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - For pure benzene, due to the unplanned maintenance of a reforming device in East China, the supply in September is lower than expected. On the demand side, most downstream products are in a loss state, and some products' secondary downstream inventories are high. In addition, the maintenance plan of downstream styrene devices increases from September to October, so the demand - side support weakens. The supply - demand of pure benzene in September is still expected to be relatively loose, and the price driving force is weak. However, in the short term, with the strong oil price and the improvement of the domestic commodity macro - atmosphere, the price center of pure benzene is expected to be supported. For styrene, the overall operating rate of downstream 3S has declined. Some styrene devices are under planned maintenance, and some have reduced their loads due to accidents, resulting in a continuous decline in the high - level port inventory. With the short - term strong oil price, the driving force of styrene is expected to strengthen, but the rebound space is still limited by the high port inventory [30]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all increased, with increases of 0.88%, 3.11%, 0.77%, and 2.65% respectively. The prices of spot products such as East China PP raffia and North China LDPE film also increased slightly [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 3.11% to 78.0%, while PE downstream weighted operating rate increased by 2.70% to 42.2%. PP enterprise inventory and trader inventory increased by 8.06% and 14.74% respectively. PP device operating rate decreased by 3.9% to 76.8%, while PP powder operating rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5% [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Changes**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices all increased, with increases of 0.67%, 0.03%, and 0.82% respectively. The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil also showed different degrees of increase [4]. - **Market Logic**: The overnight oil price increase was mainly due to geopolitical conflicts, including Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, which threatened the output of refined oil and the export capacity of crude oil. The market's expectation of tight diesel supply heated up, and the US pressured its allies to stop buying Russian oil, further amplifying the supply - side risk premium. At the macro level, the expected Fed interest rate cut and the weakening US dollar provided upward momentum for oil prices [4]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and SH2509 decreased, while the prices of East China calcium carbide - based PVC and V2509 increased significantly, with increases of 1.3% and 13.2% respectively [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: For caustic soda, the operating rate is expected to decline due to maintenance, and the demand from the alumina industry is good but the price is falling. For PVC, the supply is expected to decrease due to more maintenance enterprises, and the demand from downstream products has increased slightly [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR China PX increased, while the prices of some downstream polyester products such as POY150/48 and FDY150/96 decreased [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of most products in the polyester industry chain changed slightly. For example, the PTA operating rate increased by 4.0% to 76.8%, and the MEG comprehensive operating rate increased by 2.0% to 74.9% [13]. Methanol Industry - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 increased, with increases of 0.71% and 6.59% respectively. The basis and spread also changed significantly [17]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Methanol port inventory increased by 8.59% to 155.0 tons. The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.97% to 72.75%, and the downstream external MTO device operating rate decreased by 12.37% to 69.06% [17][18][19]. Urea Industry - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts all increased, with increases of 1.20%, 0.76%, and 11.46% respectively [24]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea has returned above 190,000 tons due to device restart, and there will be further increments. The demand side is in the off - season for agriculture, with rigid industrial demand and marginal weakening export [25]. Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Price Changes**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in the spot and futures markets all increased slightly [30]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, with decreases of 6.9% and 9.9% respectively. The operating rates of some products in the industry chain, such as Asian pure benzene and styrene, decreased [30].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The market risk appetite has rebounded due to the consensus reached on the TikTok issue between China and the US, and the US dollar continues to be weak. The A-share market is oscillating and differentiating, with the index attempting to rise but encountering resistance, and the market trading volume slightly shrinking. The futures of corn have broken through the support level and declined. The terminal demand for building materials remains weak, but the steel price continues to oscillate. The supply disturbance of lithium carbonate has temporarily ended, and the market will return to the fundamental logic. [1][2][3][4][57] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump nominee for Fed governor Milan passed the Senate's procedural hurdle. Trump pressured Powell to cut interest rates significantly, which pushed gold prices up. The short - term gold price fluctuations increase, and investors should pay attention to risks. [12][13][14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US will start imposing a 15% tariff on Japanese cars. Milan's nomination as Fed governor is likely to be confirmed. The consensus on the TikTok issue between China and the US has boosted market risk appetite, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term. [15][16][17] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The market regulator is conducting an anti - monopoly investigation on Nvidia. The US has lowered the import tariff on Japanese cars. CoreWeave has received a $6.3 billion order from Nvidia. The AI industry's capital expenditure continues to expand, and the US stock market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger under the expectation of interest rate cuts. [19][20][22] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The economic data in August showed a decline. The A - share market is oscillating and differentiating, with high - level characteristics. It is recommended to reduce long positions to cope with the high - level oscillating pattern. [23][25][26] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The economic data in August was worse than expected. The central bank conducted a 280 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market still lacks the momentum to strengthen, and investors should remain cautious. [27][28][30] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean planting rate is 0.12%. NOPA members crushed 189.8 million bushels of soybeans in August. The good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased by 1%. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills increased. The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain oscillating, and investors should pay close attention to the results of China - US talks. [31][32][34][35] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Floods in Malaysia's Sabah state have affected palm oil production. The export volume of palm oil from Malaysia from September 1 - 15 increased by 2.55% month - on - month. India's palm oil imports in August increased by 15.75% month - on - month. The short - term oil market is expected to remain oscillating and slightly stronger. [36][37][38] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in Guangzhou Ruyifang Market has stabilized. The main contract of red date futures has declined significantly. The supply and demand of red dates have not changed significantly recently, and it is recommended to wait and see. [41][42] 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the East China market has remained stable. The supply of coking coal has returned to normal, and the demand is fair. The price of coking coal is expected to continue to oscillate and adjust in the short term. [43][44] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch has continued to decline. The cost support is insufficient, and the profit of starch enterprises is differentiated. The medium - and long - term fundamentals are not favorable for the price difference between corn and starch. [45][46] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - There are rumors that the import corn auction will increase the supply. The futures price of corn has declined significantly. Before the selling pressure is realized, the 11 and 01 contracts are expected to have some support at 2150, but the medium - term view is bearish. [47] 2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The infrastructure investment from January to August increased by 2.0% year - on - year. The production of crude steel in August decreased by 0.7% year - on - year. The real estate development investment from January to August decreased by 12.9% year - on - year. The steel price is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term. [48][49][52] 2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The production of raw coal in August decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. The pit - mouth coal price has been rising recently, but the increase is limited due to the high inventory of power plants. The short - term coal price is expected to be slightly stronger. [54] 2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The daily output of crude steel in August decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The iron ore price is expected to remain oscillating, and the impact of the meeting organized by the Steel Association is limited. [55][56] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zijin Mining's 20,000 - ton lithium carbonate project in Argentina has been put into operation. Sigma Lithium denies the accusations of improper behavior in the Brazilian lithium project. The market will return to the fundamental logic. The price of lithium carbonate may decline after the demand inflection point. [57][58][59] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Dianzhong Non - ferrous's electrolytic plant has produced the first batch of copper sulfate. QB and Collahuasi copper mines plan to be integrated. The copper price is expected to oscillate and be slightly stronger in the short term. [60][61][62] 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia has seized 321.07 hectares of illegal nickel mines. The short - term focus is the Fed's interest rate meeting. The price of nickel ore is expected to rise in Q4, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips. [63][64] 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME0 - 3 lead is at a deep discount. The social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The short - term demand has improved slightly, but the long - term view is slightly bullish. It is recommended to wait and see on the sidelines and consider going long on dips. [65][66] 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Peru's zinc concentrate production in July decreased by 4.2% month - on - month. The LME0 - 3 zinc is at a premium. The domestic zinc inventory has increased. It is recommended to wait and see on the sidelines and pay attention to the mid - term positive spread opportunity. [67][68][69] 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US is considering more severe sanctions against Russia. The oil price is expected to be affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term. [70][71] 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle East frozen cargo has risen. The domestic LPG price is expected to follow the overall energy - chemical sector, and the fundamentals do not support a trend - like market. [72][73][74] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The refinery and social inventories of asphalt have decreased. The asphalt futures price is expected to remain weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see. [76][77] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The downstream demand of polyester is weak. The PX price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and it is recommended to try the positive spread between November and January contracts on dips. [78][79][80] 2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price has increased, and the basis has weakened. The terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the PTA price is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the short term. [81][82][83] 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chip factories has increased slightly. An East China polyester bottle chip plant has shut down. The demand for bottle chips is turning to the off - season, and the processing fee is difficult to improve. [85][86][87] 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has decreased. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The caustic soda spot price is expected to turn down, but the downward space is limited. [88][89][90] 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp has shown mixed trends. The pulp market is expected to oscillate and weaken due to poor fundamentals. [91][92] 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea production load has decreased. The domestic demand is weak, and the urea price is expected to continue to decline in the medium term. The potential rebound driver depends on the release of off - season storage demand and the improvement of market sentiment. [93][94] 2.24 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price has oscillated and increased. The fundamentals are under short - term pressure, but the downward space is limited due to low valuation. [95] 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The port inventory of styrene has decreased. The supply has decreased, and the demand has some resilience. The short - term accumulation pressure has been relieved, but the long - term inventory contradiction needs to be resolved. [96][97] 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 174.71 million tons. The soda ash price is expected to be sold short on rallies, and investors should pay attention to supply disturbances. [98][99] 2.27 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market has changed slightly. The spot market is in the off - season, and the 01 contract premium is high. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on glass 2601 and short on soda ash 2601. [100][101] 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The SCFIS index shows that the European line index has declined, and the US West index has increased. The freight rate may stop falling in mid - October, and investors can hold short positions in the 10 - contract and consider going long on the 12 - contract if it falls to around 1500 points. [103][104]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the given content. 2) Report's Core View - The crude oil market is expected to run strongly. In the short - term (within a week), medium - term (two weeks to a month), and intraday, the crude oil 2511 contract shows an overall trend of shock, with an intraday bias towards strength. The main reason is the enhanced geopolitical risks and the improvement of macro - sentiment [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract closed slightly up 1.31% to 494.9 yuan/barrel on the night session of Monday, and it is expected to maintain a shock - biased - strong trend on Tuesday [5]. Core Logic - Recently, Ukrainian drones attacked an important crude oil export hub in the Russian Baltic Sea. The port loads about 330,000 barrels of diesel - type fuel and 1.15 million barrels of crude oil per day. Coupled with the positive progress of the Sino - US economic and trade talks, the macro - sentiment has improved, leading to a slight rebound in domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on the night session of Monday [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the medium - and long - term strategy for the stock index is to buy on dips as policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [3]. - In the bond market, with weak domestic demand recovery and expected loose funds, interest rates may decline, but the short - term outlook is for a volatile recovery, considering the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]. - The current macro background is favorable for precious metals, especially silver. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - Most non - ferrous metals are expected to show a strong or volatile - strong trend. For example, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, etc. are affected by factors such as Fed policy expectations, industry fundamentals, and supply - demand relationships [8][9][11]. - In the black building materials sector, although the short - term prices may have a callback risk due to weak real - time demand, in the future, with overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the opening of domestic policy space, the sector may gradually have multi - allocation value [31]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different trends. For example, crude oil is recommended for multi - allocation, while methanol and urea have different strategies based on their supply - demand and inventory situations [42][43]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products such as pigs, eggs, and grains have different supply - demand situations, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on these situations [55][56]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **News**: Articles by General Secretary Xi Jinping were published, NVIDIA is under investigation, black - series futures rose, a press conference on service consumption policies is upcoming, and Tesla's stock price reached a new high [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided. After a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have diverged, and the short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the medium - and long - term strategy is to buy on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. Economic data in August showed a slowdown, and the central bank conducted net capital injections [4]. - **Strategy**: With weak domestic demand recovery and expected loose funds, interest rates may decline, but the short - term bond market is expected to recover in a volatile manner [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver rose, while COMEX gold slightly declined and COMEX silver rose. Trump's remarks and the expected Fed policy have increased the market's expectation of a dovish Fed stance. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market**: Affected by factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's expected policy, copper prices rose. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [8]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with the reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract being 80600 - 82000 yuan/ton [8]. Aluminum - **Market**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, but aluminum prices rose. Downstream consumption is in the peak season, and aluminum prices are expected to continue to be strong [9]. - **Outlook**: The reference range for the domestic main contract is 20960 - 21200 yuan/ton [9]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices showed a short - term strong trend. Zinc concentrate inventory increased, and the import window closed. The short - term outlook is for a strong trend [10][11]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices broke through the shock range. Lead concentrate is in short supply, and downstream demand is improving. The short - term outlook is for a strong trend [12][13]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices fluctuated. Refined nickel inventory pressure is significant, but in the medium - and long - term, nickel prices are supported by policies. It is recommended to buy on dips [14]. - **Outlook**: The reference range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton [14]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices fluctuated. Supply decreased, and demand improved marginally. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [15]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market**: Carbonate lithium prices rose. Demand expectations are optimistic, and lithium prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [16]. - **Outlook**: The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2511 contract is 71000 - 74600 yuan/ton [16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices rose. The supply - side has an over - capacity situation, but the Fed's expected policy may drive the non - ferrous sector. It is recommended to wait and see [17]. - **Outlook**: The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices rose. Raw material prices recovered, and it is recommended to be bullish on stainless steel [18][19]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices were at a high level. Downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and prices are expected to remain high [20]. - **Outlook**: The reference range for the AD2511 contract is 20450 - 20650 yuan/ton [20]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly. The overall commodity market atmosphere improved, but steel prices showed a weak trend. Rebar demand is weak, while hot - rolled coil demand is relatively strong [22][23]. - **Outlook**: If demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may decline further [24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices fluctuated. Supply increased, and demand was supported in the short - term. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Glass prices rose. Industry supply increased slightly, and inventory decreased. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash prices rose. Industry supply decreased slightly, and demand was mainly for rigid needs. It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. They are expected to follow the black sector, but their independent strong trends are difficult to form [29][30]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [30]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Industrial silicon prices rose. Supply increased, and demand improved marginally. The short - term valuation is neutral, and it is necessary to pay attention to industry policies [33][34]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon prices fluctuated. Supply was high, and demand was mainly for rigid needs. The short - term market is affected by policies [35][36]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices rebounded. Supply and demand factors coexist, and the medium - term outlook is bullish, while the short - term outlook is neutral [38][39]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or trade quickly [41]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil prices rose. Geopolitical premiums have disappeared, but OPEC's actions are seen as a market pressure test. It is recommended for multi - allocation [42]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices rose. Port inventory is high, but demand is expected to improve marginally. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider 1 - 5 positive spreads [43]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices rose. Domestic inventory is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips [44]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market**: Spot prices fell, and futures prices rose. BZN spreads are expected to repair, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the pure benzene US - South Korea spread [45][46]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose. Supply is strong, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of upward fluctuations [47]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply is high, and inventory is expected to increase in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of risks [48]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices rose. Supply is affected by unexpected maintenance, and demand is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [49][50]. p - Xylene - **Market**: p - Xylene prices rose. Supply is high, and demand from downstream PTA is affected by maintenance. It is recommended to wait and see [51]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: PE futures prices rose. Cost support exists, and demand is expected to improve. Prices are expected to fluctuate upward [52]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: PP futures prices rose. Supply pressure is high, and demand is recovering seasonally. The short - term trend is not clear [53]. Agricultural Products Category Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices fell. Supply is abundant, and demand is general. It is recommended to pay attention to potential rebound opportunities and short - sell after rebounds [55]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were stable with some increases. Supply is stable, and demand is normal. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long positions in the distant month after a decline [56]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans fell slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices fell. Supply is abundant, and demand is uncertain. It is recommended to trade within a range [57][58]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Three major domestic oils fluctuated. Supply and demand factors coexist, and the medium - term outlook is bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips after a decline [60][61]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices fluctuated. Domestic and foreign markets are bearish, and the overall outlook is bearish [62][63]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices fluctuated. Supply and demand factors coexist, and short - term prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [64][65].

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: September 16, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish approach for the crude oil market, indicating limited bullish factors [7] Core View - The crude oil market has limited bullish factors, and a bearish trading strategy is recommended [7] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Trading Recommendations - **Market Performance**: WTI's opening price was $61.79, closing at $62.11, with a high of $63.40, a low of $61.20, a gain of 0.42%, and a trading volume of 13.85 million hands. Brent opened at $65.88, closed at $66.45, with a high of $67.71, a low of $65.36, a gain of 0.67%, and a trading volume of 37.02 million hands. SC opened at 486.6 yuan/barrel, closed at 488.1 yuan/barrel, with a high of 491.2 yuan/barrel, a low of 483.3 yuan/barrel, a gain of 1.86%, and a trading volume of 8.2 million hands [6] - **Supply Analysis**: In August, OPEC+ increased production by 510,000 barrels per day. After the latest compensatory production cuts, except for Kazakhstan over - producing by 280,000 barrels per day, the crude oil production of the other 7 member countries was basically within the quota. On the 8th, OPEC announced updated compensatory production - cut plans, mainly reducing the production - cut intensity this year and strengthening it in 2026. The supply side has marginal negative factors. Weekly data shows that U.S. crude oil and refined products are accumulating inventory, and both EIA and IEA have raised the inventory - accumulation amplitude for the fourth quarter [6] 2. Industry News - U.S. President Trump stated that he would impose major sanctions on Russia when all NATO countries stop buying Russian oil. U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent informed G7 partners that they should join the U.S. in imposing tariffs on countries buying Russian oil to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Trump also threatened new economic sanctions on Moscow due to the受阻 in Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, U.S. gasoline consumption, and U.S. diesel consumption [10][11][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil as the current oil price is undervalued, and the fundamentals support the price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [3] - For methanol, expect the fundamentals to gradually improve, and suggest paying attention to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [5] - For urea, due to weak demand and limited export support, the price is expected to move in a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions at low prices [7] - For rubber, take a long - term bullish view, and a neutral short - term view, suggesting waiting and watching or quick in - and - out operations [11][12] - For PVC, with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, it is advisable to consider short - position opportunities at high prices, while being cautious about upward movements [12] - For pure benzene and styrene, expect the long - term BZN to repair, and suggest going long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [14] - For polyethylene, expect the price to oscillate upwards in the long term [17] - For polypropylene, with high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, it is recommended to consider long positions at low prices [18] - For PX, with high load and limited inventory accumulation, the valuation has support, and it is suggested to wait and watch [21] - For PTA, although the de - stocking pattern continues, the processing fee is suppressed, and it is recommended to wait and watch [22] - For ethylene glycol, with high supply and expected inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, it is advisable to consider short - position opportunities at high prices [23] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 8.90 yuan/barrel, or 1.86%, to 488.10 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 66.00 yuan/ton, or 2.41%, to 2799.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 87.00 yuan/ton, or 2.65%, to 3375.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 3.83 million barrels to 213.37 million barrels, a 1.83% increase; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.67 million barrels to 90.76 million barrels, a 1.88% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.93 million barrels to 103.23 million barrels, a 0.91% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 2.60 million barrels to 193.99 million barrels, a 1.36% increase [2] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 15, the 01 contract rose 17 yuan/ton to 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 101 [5] - **Fundamentals**: The high - inventory pattern at ports remains unchanged, and the market structure is weak, but most of the negative factors have been realized. Supply is sufficient, and demand is expected to improve marginally. The inventory at ports has reached a new high, while that of inland enterprises is relatively low. The fundamentals are expected to gradually improve [5] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 15, the 01 contract rose 20 yuan/ton to 1683 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 53 [7] - **Fundamentals**: Domestic enterprise inventory is slowly rising, and the overall inventory level is high. Domestic agricultural demand is in the off - season, and compound fertilizer production has increased but is still in the seasonal decline stage. Demand is weak, and export support is limited [7] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Industrial products generally rose, and NR and RU rebounded [9] - **Fundamentals**: The expected rainfall in Thailand in the next 7 days is decreasing, reducing the supply - side positive factors. There are different views among bulls and bears. Bulls focus on weather, seasonality, and demand expectations, while bears are concerned about macro uncertainties and weak demand [9][10] - **Operation Suggestion**: Take a long - term bullish view and a neutral short - term view, suggesting waiting and watching or quick in - and - out operations [11][12] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 45 yuan to 4921 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4740 (+60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 181 (+15) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 303 (0) yuan/ton [12] - **Fundamentals**: The cost of calcium carbide and ethylene has increased, and the overall PVC operating rate has risen. The downstream operating rate has also increased. However, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a high level, and the valuation pressure is large. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the export expectation is weak [12] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5920 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the spot price of styrene was 7100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7087 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton; the basis was 13 yuan/ton, weakening by 117 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 134.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan/ton; the EB non - integrated plant profit was - 420.8 yuan/ton, up 30.25 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton [15] - **Fundamentals**: The BZN spread is at a low level and has room for upward repair. The supply of pure benzene is abundant, and the operating rate of styrene is rising. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the demand for three S products is oscillating downward [14][15] - **Operation Suggestion**: Expect the long - term BZN to repair, and suggest going long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread at low prices [14] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract was 7232 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7190 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 42 yuan/ton, weakening by 63 yuan/ton [17] - **Fundamentals**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost has support. The supply capacity is limited, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand for agricultural film raw materials has started to stockpile, and the overall operating rate has stabilized at a low level [17] - **Outlook**: The long - term contradiction has shifted, and the price is expected to oscillate upwards [17] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The closing price of the main contract was 6966 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6875 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 91 yuan/ton, weakening by 53 yuan/ton [18] - **Fundamentals**: The supply capacity is under pressure, and the downstream operating rate has rebounded seasonally. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there are no prominent short - term contradictions [18] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 40 yuan to 6752 yuan, the PX CFR rose 4 dollars to 836 dollars, the basis was 95 yuan (- 3), and the 11 - 1 spread was 46 yuan (0) [20] - **Fundamentals**: The PX load is at a high level, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance operations in the short term. The PTA new plant has been put into operation, and the PX inventory accumulation is limited. The polyester data are gradually improving, and the valuation has support at the bottom [20][21] - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and watch [21] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 24 yuan to 4672 yuan, the East China spot price rose 25 yuan to 4600 yuan, the basis was - 80 yuan (- 7), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 44 yuan (- 4) [22] - **Fundamentals**: The PTA load has increased, and the downstream load has also increased slightly. The social inventory has decreased. The supply - side unexpected maintenance volume is still high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure are low, but the terminal recovery is slow [22] - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and watch [22] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract rose 16 yuan to 4288 yuan, the East China spot price fell 8 yuan to 4378 yuan, the basis was 102 yuan (- 1), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 45 yuan (+2) [23] - **Fundamentals**: The supply - side load is at a high level, and the downstream load has increased slightly. The port inventory has increased. The cost of ethylene has risen. The domestic supply is high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter [23] - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - position opportunities at high prices, while being cautious about the non - realization of weak expectations [23]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The global economy is experiencing slow growth, with a forecasted increase of 3% in 2025, up by 0.2 percentage points from previous predictions [2] - The IMF has slightly upgraded the growth forecasts for the US, China, and the Eurozone, with expected growth rates of 1.9%, 4.8%, and 1% respectively [2] - The OECD has revised its 2025 global growth forecast down from 3.1% to 2.9%, and the US GDP growth forecast down from 2.2% to 1.6% [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% in August, marking the sixth consecutive month of unchanged rates [3] - Following comments from Fed Chair Powell indicating an openness to rate cuts, market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September surged to over 90% [3] Group 3: Oil Supply and OPEC+ Policies - Global oil supply is expected to grow, with an increase of 2.6 million barrels per day projected for 2025, reaching a historical high [5] - OPEC+ has decided to gradually exit the voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023, with an increase of 137,000 barrels per day starting in October [6] - OPEC+ aims to balance production increases with oil price stability, having already restored 2.2 million barrels per day of production ahead of schedule [6][7] Group 4: US Oil Production Trends - US oil production has declined slightly to approximately 13.5 million barrels per day as of early September, primarily due to capital constraints and low oil prices [8] - The largest 20 shale oil producers have cut their capital expenditures for 2025 by about $1.8 billion, a decrease of 3% [8] - The number of active oil rigs in the US has decreased by 15% since the beginning of the year, limiting production growth [8] Group 5: Geopolitical Factors Impacting Oil Supply - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Russia regarding sanctions, have created uncertainties in global oil supply [9][10] - Russia's oil refining capacity has been reduced by 17% due to drone attacks and sanctions, affecting its export capabilities [9] - The stagnation of ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine poses further risks to Russian oil supply [10] Group 6: Global Oil Demand Projections - Global oil demand growth forecasts have been frequently revised downwards, with EIA, IEA, and OPEC lowering their projections by 200,000 to 400,000 barrels per day [11] - The US is expected to see only a modest increase in oil consumption of 30,000 barrels per day this year, impacted by economic slowdowns and tariff policies [11] - Domestic oil consumption in China has also shown weakness, with gasoline and diesel consumption declining by 7.11% and 4% respectively in the first seven months of the year [12] Group 7: Market Surplus Expectations - Energy agencies have raised their expectations for oil market surplus, predicting a surplus of 2 million barrels per day in Q3 and exceeding 2 million barrels per day in Q4 [14] - The overall surplus for the year is expected to surpass 1.7 million barrels per day, indicating a significant imbalance between supply and demand [14] - The combination of increasing supply from OPEC+ and weakening demand forecasts suggests that the oil market will face ongoing surplus pressures [14]