Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are consolidating at a high level, and attention should be paid to LME delivery risks. The borrow strategy for copper can continue to be held, and options should be on the sidelines [6][7][8]. - Alumina supply and demand are expected to return to an excess situation, and it is advisable to short on rallies. Arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [13][14][15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate widely. After the correction, attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment. Consider the 9 - 12 positive spread for arbitrage, and options should be on the sidelines [19][20][22]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate widely with aluminum prices. Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between -200 and -1000 yuan, and options should be on the sidelines [26][28][29]. - Zinc prices may decline as inventories accumulate. Consider shorting distant - month contracts on rallies, and be wary of macro - risks. Arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [33][34][36]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate within a range. Consider buying a small amount of distant - month contracts on dips, and arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [39][40]. - Nickel prices are oscillating downward. Consider selling call options, and arbitrage should be on the sidelines [44][46][48]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to be weak and decline. Arbitrage should be on the sidelines [52][53][56]. - Tin prices face pressure at the 60 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to the resumption of tin mine production, and options should be on the sidelines [59][60][61]. - Industrial silicon supply and demand remain in an excess pattern. Short - term short positions can avoid emotional rebounds, and consider selling out - of - the - money call options and Si2511, Si2512 reverse spreads [66][67]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to decline. Short - term short positions can be considered, and arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [70][72][73]. - Lithium carbonate prices have limited upside. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies and do not bottom - fish. Arbitrage should be on the sidelines, and consider selling out - of - the - money call options [76][77][79]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2507 contract closed at 78,290 yuan/ton, up 0.14%, with the Shanghai Copper Index reducing positions by 5,943 lots to 525,200 lots [2]. - Spot: Spot premiums declined in Shanghai, Guangdong, and North China [2]. - **Important Information** - In May, China's scrap copper imports were 185,200 tons, down 9.55% month - on - month and 6.53% year - on - year. Refined copper imports were 292,700 tons, down 2.49% month - on - month and 15.64% year - on - year [3][4]. - As of June 23, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 16,300 tons to 129,600 tons [3]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Pay attention to LME delivery risks [7]. - Arbitrage: Hold the borrow strategy [8]. - Options: On the sidelines [9] Alumina - **Market Review** - Futures: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 11 yuan to 2,906 yuan/ton, with weighted positions decreasing by 4,632 lots to 430,300 lots [10]. - Spot: Spot prices in various regions declined [10]. - **Related Information** - In June, India had a 30,000 - ton alumina transaction at an FOB price of 366 dollars/ton. - It is expected that the operating capacity of alumina will reach 9.35 - 9.4 billion tons by the end of the month [11]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short on rallies [14]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [15]. - Options: On the sidelines [15] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 50 yuan/ton to 20,365 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 18,755 lots to 665,800 lots [17]. - Spot: Spot prices in East, South, and Central China declined [17]. - **Related Information** - In May, China's photovoltaic new - installed capacity was 92.92GW, up 388.03% year - on - year [18]. - On June 23, China's aluminum ingot spot inventory was 462,000 tons, up 12,000 tons from last Thursday [18]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Pay attention to downstream inventory replenishment after the price correction [22]. - Arbitrage: Consider the 9 - 12 positive spread [22]. - Options: On the sidelines [22] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review** - Futures: The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract fell 15 yuan to 19,380 yuan/ton, with weighted positions decreasing by 130 lots to 9,714 lots [24]. - Spot: Spot prices in various regions remained flat [24]. - **Related Information** - In May, China's automobile production and sales increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and new - energy vehicle production and sales also increased significantly [24]. - On June 23, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by 19 tons [25]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely with aluminum prices [28]. - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage when the price difference is between -200 and -1000 yuan [29]. - Options: On the sidelines [29] Zinc - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 rose 0.18% to 21,780 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Zinc Index increasing positions by 258 lots to 259,600 lots [31]. - Spot: Spot prices in Shanghai were stable, and the premium was stable, but downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [31]. - **Related Information** - As of June 23, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 77,800 tons, down 1,000 tons from June 16 and 1,800 tons from June 19 [32]. - Some zinc smelters in South China were affected by heavy rain over the weekend, and transportation was restricted [32]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short on rallies for distant - month contracts, be wary of macro - risks [34]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [36]. - Options: On the sidelines [36] Lead - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2508 rose 0.39% to 16,930 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Lead Index reducing positions by 3,480 lots to 81,000 lots [35]. - Spot: The average price of SMM 1 lead remained flat, and the supply of recycled lead was scarce [38]. - **Related Information** - As of June 23, SMM's five - region lead ingot social inventory was 55,700 tons, down about 700 tons from June 16 [38]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Consider buying a small amount of distant - month contracts on dips [40]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [40]. - Options: On the sidelines [40] Nickel - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2507 fell 1,340 to 117,440 yuan/ton, with the index increasing positions by 11,384 lots [42]. - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased, while that of Russian nickel remained flat [42]. - **Related Information** - PT Gag Nickel will resume operations in West Papua. The Qing Shan Industrial Park in Indonesia will strengthen environmental compliance management [43]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price is oscillating downward, pay attention to macro and nickel ore changes [46]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [47]. - Options: Consider selling call options [48] Stainless Steel - **Market Review** - Futures: The main SS2508 contract fell 145 to 12,390 yuan/ton, with the index increasing positions by 25,926 lots [50]. - Spot: Cold - rolled and hot - rolled prices are given [50]. - **Related Information** - Indonesia's first professional anti - corrosion stainless - steel factory was put into operation [51]. - In May, China's stainless - steel imports from Indonesia decreased, and exports to Vietnam increased [51]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The price is expected to decline weakly [53]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [56]. Tin - **Market Review** - Futures: The main Shanghai Tin 2507 contract closed at 263,300 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton or 0.05%, with positions decreasing by 524 lots to 49,660 lots [55]. - Spot: Spot prices declined, and the market trading was light [57]. - **Related Information** - In April 2025, the global semiconductor sales were 57 billion dollars, up 2.5% from March 2025 and 22.7% from April 2024 [58]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Pay attention to the resumption of tin mine production [60]. - Options: On the sidelines [61] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 7,420 yuan/ton, down 0.2% [62]. - Spot: Downstream procurement improved, and spot prices were stable [63]. - **Related Information** - In May, the total social electricity consumption was 809.6 billion kWh, up 4.4% year - on - year [64]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short - term short positions can avoid emotional rebounds [67]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [67]. - Arbitrage: Participate in the Si2511, Si2512 reverse spreads [67] Polysilicon - **Market Review** - Futures: The main polysilicon futures contract fell 3.33% to 30,615 yuan/ton [68]. - Spot: Spot prices declined [68]. - **Related Information** - From January to May 2025, China's new - installed photovoltaic capacity was 197.85GW, up 150% year - on - year [69]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short - term short positions [73]. - Options: On the sidelines [73]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [73] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review** - Futures: The main 2509 contract fell 460 to 59,120 yuan/ton, with the index increasing positions by 9,340 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreasing by 1,014 to 26,779 tons [74]. - Spot: Spot prices declined [74]. - **Related Information** - In May 2025, China's lithium spodumene imports were about 605,000 tons, slightly down 2.9% month - on - month [75]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short on rallies, do not bottom - fish [77]. - Arbitrage: On the sidelines [78]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [79]

从美联储最新点阵图来看，预计2025年利率中枢为3.75-4.00%，较当前利率水平低50BP，因此年内美联 储还有降息可能。仍然看好金价在降息周期的表现。 ▌铜、铝：下游需求走弱，供应偏紧，铜铝仍以震荡走势为主 国内宏观：中国5月CPI同比今值-0.1%，前值-0.1%。中国5月PPI同比今值-3.3%，前值-2.7%。中国5月 进口同比(按美元计)今值-3.4%，前值-0.2%。中国5月出口同比(按美元计)今值4.8%，前值8.1%。中国广 义货币(M2)余额325.78万亿元，同比增长7.9%。狭义货币(M1)余额108.91万亿元，同比增长2.3%。流通 中货币(M0)余额13.13万亿元，同比增长12.1%。2025年前五个月人民币贷款增加10.68万亿元。2025年 前五个月社会融资规模增量累计为18.63万亿元，比上年同期多3.83万亿元。 铜：价格方面，本周LME铜收盘价9652美元/吨，环比6月13日+79美元/吨，涨幅0.82%。SHFE铜收盘价 77990元/吨，环比6月13日-360元/吨，跌幅0.46%。库存方面，LME库存为99200吨（环比6月13日-15275 吨，同比-627 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is driven by factors such as the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, inflation concerns, and the uncertainty of monetary policy, but the intraday risk - aversion sentiment has declined [3]. - Copper prices are likely to oscillate around 78,000 yuan per ton in the short - term, with greater upward pressure and relatively weaker downward support due to the possible weakening of demand [14]. - Aluminum's fundamentals show sufficient supply and gradually weakening demand. Low inventory and continuous de - stocking are the core factors supporting aluminum prices in the short - term, and it may maintain high - level oscillations in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - to - long - term [30]. - Zinc's supply is gradually becoming looser, but the transmission from ore to ingot needs time. Demand remains stable, and short - term focus is on macro data and market sentiment [59]. - For nickel, potential audits in Indonesia may affect production. Nickel ore is expected to stabilize, nickel - iron prices are down, stainless - steel demand is weak in the off - season, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are low and stable [72]. - Tin prices are expected to remain stable in the next week, with support from low inventory and under - recovery of upstream mines, and pressure from weakening downstream demand [89]. - Lithium carbonate's mid - term fundamentals are bearish, with high inventory suppressing price increases, and it is expected to be in a weakly oscillating state recently [104]. - The silicon industry chain has a relatively loose supply and slightly improved demand. The southwest region's industrial silicon enterprises'复产 expectations are being realized, and downstream demand varies [114]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Factors**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, inflation concerns, and monetary policy uncertainty drive funds into the gold market [3]. - **Price Data**: Various price charts of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, and their relationships with factors like the US dollar index and US Treasury real interest rates are presented [4][9] Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term oscillation around 78,000 yuan per ton, with upward pressure and weak downward support [14]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are provided [15]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of copper spot in different regions, as well as import profit and loss and other data are given [19][23] - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of SHFE and LME copper, and their changes are presented [27][28] Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Supply is close to the industry ceiling, demand is gradually weakening, low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short - term, and it is bearish in the medium - to - long - term [30]. - **Alumina**: Guinea's Axis mine may have short - term production suspension, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation and price oscillation [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cost is strongly supported, supply is excessive, demand growth may slow down, and it may oscillate strongly in the short - term with a BACK structure [32]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of aluminum and alumina futures and spot are provided [34][52] Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Supply is gradually loosening, but the transmission to the ingot end is not complete. Demand is stable, and short - term focus is on macro data and inventory [59]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of zinc futures and spot are provided [60][68] Nickel - **Industry Impact**: Indonesian audits may affect nickel intermediate products and stainless - steel production. Nickel ore is stable, nickel - iron prices are down, stainless - steel demand is weak, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are low and stable [72]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of nickel and stainless - steel futures and related raw materials are provided [73][79] Tin - **Price Outlook**: Prices are expected to remain stable, with support from inventory and mine supply, and pressure from weakening demand [89]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of tin futures and spot are provided [90][98] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: Mid - term fundamentals are bearish, with high inventory suppressing price increases, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating recently [104]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of lithium carbonate futures and spot are provided [105][111] Silicon Industry Chain - **Industry Conditions**: Supply is relatively loose, and demand is slightly improved. The southwest region's industrial silicon enterprises'复产 expectations are being realized, and downstream demand varies [114]. - **Price and Production Data**: The latest prices of industrial silicon spot and futures, and production - related data such as output and capacity utilization rate are provided [117][138]

Group 1: Copper Industry - In May, domestic air conditioner sales increased by 2.3%, while production decreased by 1.8%. The copper industry is facing supply disruptions, with both domestic production and imports of scrap copper declining in May. Demand for air conditioning is weaker than expected, leading to potential risks in copper demand. Short-term copper prices are expected to remain volatile, with a gradual increase anticipated following domestic stimulus policies and potential interest rate cuts in the US [4]. Group 2: Oil and Gas Industry - The ongoing military conflict between Israel and Iran continues to dominate the crude oil market. On June 22, the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities, marking its formal involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the medium to long-term supply-demand dynamics for crude oil remain favorable, with a continued positive outlook for major oil companies and related services [5]. Group 3: Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - The "618" shopping festival results indicate a significant growth in the pet economy, with over 400 pet brands reporting sales increases of over 100% year-on-year. The number of pet transaction users grew by 32%, and new pet owners increased by 39% [6]. Group 4: Coal Industry - The coal market is experiencing a supply contraction and a rebound in demand, suggesting that coal prices may have reached a temporary bottom. Port coal prices are stable, and there has been an increase in iron and steel production. Coal inventories at Qinhuangdao Port have decreased and are now lower than the same period last year [8]. Group 5: Renewable Energy and Environmental Protection - The wind power sector is advised to focus on wind turbine manufacturers, as second-quarter performance may be under pressure. The solid-state battery sector is seeing increased capital expenditure due to advancements in production lines and policy support. The photovoltaic sector is expected to benefit from upcoming supply and demand policies, with a focus on integrated companies with lower production costs [9]. Group 6: Retail Industry - The recent promotional period concluded with stable results, as e-commerce platforms reported a cumulative sales figure of 855.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.2% year-on-year increase. Instant retail sales reached 29.6 billion yuan, up 18.7% year-on-year. This year, platforms are focusing more on ecosystem building and consumer experience, with instant retail gaining traction [10]. Group 7: Pharmaceutical Industry - The review process for innovative drugs is accelerating, with the National Medical Products Administration seeking opinions on optimizing clinical trial approvals. This is expected to enhance the value of quality pipelines and improve market sentiment towards the innovative drug sector. Long-term, the policy aims to support the transition of Chinese innovative drugs from a combination of imitation and innovation to global original research [11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - Precious metals are expected to perform well in the long term despite a recent pullback, with a recommendation to overweight this sector [5] - Copper prices are expected to remain strong, with a support level around 9,350 USD per ton, influenced by macroeconomic factors and trade dynamics [6] - Aluminum prices are anticipated to trend upward, supported by easing trade tensions and a decrease in inventory levels [6] - Rare earth prices are projected to rise following a significant drop in export volumes, with expectations of increased demand due to recent diplomatic agreements [7] - Uranium prices have seen a significant increase, with expectations for a new upward trend in the second half of the year [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4,846.95, with a weekly high of 5,047.03 and a low of 3,700.9 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price changes: Copper up 0.13%, Aluminum up 2.34%, Zinc up 0.86%, Lead up 0.13%, and Tin down 0.27% [20] - Precious metals experienced declines: Gold down 1.98%, Silver down 1.15%, while Platinum and Palladium saw increases of 4.08% and 1.69% respectively [20] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventories showed a decrease in Copper by 12,511 tons, Aluminum by 5,439 tons, and Zinc by 5,004 tons, while Lead saw an increase of 18,731 tons [34]

Group 1: Geopolitical Situation - The U.S. President Trump announced that Iran's nuclear facilities have been "completely destroyed," aiming to eliminate Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities to curb nuclear threats [1] - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned of severe retaliation against U.S. interests in the Middle East, and there are discussions in Iran's parliament about potentially closing the Strait of Hormuz [1][5] - The market is concerned about escalating tensions in the Middle East due to U.S. involvement, leading to a bullish opening in Middle Eastern stock markets on June 22 [1] Group 2: Financial Market Overview - U.S. stock indices predominantly declined, with small-cap stocks weakening, while China's major indices remain at low valuation levels, suggesting a favorable long-term investment environment [2][9] - The financing balance in China decreased by 7.479 billion yuan to 1.80918 trillion yuan as of June 19 [2] Group 3: Oil Market Insights - Oil prices rose approximately 2.5% following U.S. attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, with Iran's parliament agreeing to potentially block the Strait of Hormuz [3][11] - The number of active oil drilling rigs in the U.S. fell to 438, the lowest since October 2021, down by one from the previous week and down by 47 year-on-year [3][11] Group 4: Precious Metals Analysis - Gold and silver prices continued to retreat amid escalating Middle Eastern tensions and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which has not yet made significant moves despite ongoing inflation concerns [4][17] - The market is currently anticipating a potential easing of trade conflicts, but the ongoing geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to provide long-term support for gold prices [4][17] Group 5: Industry-Specific News - The domestic gold jewelry processing industry faces long-term challenges due to declining marriage and birth rates, which are expected to reduce the rigid demand for gold jewelry [8] - The overall demand for gold jewelry, driven by weddings and childbirth, accounts for over 30% of the domestic gold jewelry market, and a continued decline in this demand could lead to overcapacity in the industry [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risk has significantly increased after the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to a short - term strengthening of the US dollar index. The situation in the Middle East is moving towards escalation, and the market is closely watching Iran's retaliatory actions [12]. - The Fed may cut interest rates as early as July, but the impact on the US stock market is uncertain due to the unclear situation in the Middle East. The US stock market is expected to oscillate weakly [15][16]. - Gold prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the Middle East conflict amplifying market volatility [18][19]. - A - share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly to cope with fluctuations [24][25]. - In the bond market, the curve of treasury bond futures is expected to continue to steepen, and long positions can be held [27][28]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, the overall price of edible oils has a strong bottom support; sugar prices have limited rebound space; cotton prices are expected to oscillate; and the prices of some metals and energy - chemical products are affected by supply - demand relationships and geopolitical factors [30][36][40]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities, and the geopolitical risk has increased. The short - term US dollar index is expected to strengthen [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Iranian parliament may close the Strait of Hormuz. The US may revoke exemptions for some semiconductor manufacturers. The Fed may cut interest rates as early as July. The US stock market is under pressure, but the market's reaction is limited for now [13][14][15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US military strike on Iran has intensified the geopolitical situation. Gold prices are expected to oscillate, affected by both the increase in risk - aversion sentiment and the strengthening of the US dollar [17][18]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Overseas conflicts have led to a decline in global risk appetite. The A - share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [20][24][25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The 6 - month LPR remains stable. The curve of treasury bond futures is expected to continue to steepen, and long positions can be held [26][27][28]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, but the price increase is hindered by India's order cancellation. The overall price of edible oils has a strong bottom support [29][30]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan plans to import 750,000 tons of sugar. The external market of sugar may rebound weakly, while the internal market has limited rebound space [31][35][36]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - China's textile and clothing exports have increased. The US cotton export has shown changes. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate, with both upward and downward space limited [37][39][40]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory of cassava starch in domestic ports is high. It is recommended to wait and see the CS - C spread [41]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The wheat price first rose and then fell. The 09 - contract of corn is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling the 11 and 01 contracts in the future [42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The import of steam coal has increased. The short - term price is expected to be stable, but the downward trend has not ended. Attention should be paid to the hydropower and daily consumption in July [43][44]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China's automobile exports have increased. The iron ore market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, and it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [45]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA's weekly export sales report is better than expected. The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the USDA area report on June 30 and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas [46][48][49]. 2.9 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to use the strategy of hedging on the spot side when the price rebounds [51][52]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The geopolitical situation has a complex impact on copper prices. The short - term volatility of the copper market may increase, and it is recommended to wait patiently for opportunities [57]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The nickel price is oscillating weakly at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the strategy of short - selling at high prices in Q3 [59][60]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The import of lithium carbonate has decreased. The short - term pressure on the lithium carbonate market is high, and it is not recommended to short - sell at the current point [61][62][63]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The export of polysilicon has increased. Before the leading enterprises cut production, the market is bearish. It is recommended to consider short - term short and long - term long strategies [64][65]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The inventory of industrial silicon has decreased, but the supply is still greater than the demand. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to short - sell lightly after the price rebounds [66][67][68]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The export of lead - acid batteries has decreased. The lead price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and buy on dips [70]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The export of die - cast zinc alloy has decreased. The zinc market is expected to be bearish. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices and consider positive - spread arbitrage strategies [75]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has decreased slightly. The EU carbon price is expected to have greater short - term fluctuations [76][77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle East conflict may further escalate, and the oil price is expected to oscillate strongly [78][79][80]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market is weakening, but the downward space of the 09 contract is limited [81][82]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market price is weak. It is expected to oscillate due to the impact of the Middle East conflict [83][84]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC spot price has increased, but the increase is expected to be limited due to its weak relationship with crude oil [85]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories plan to cut production in July, which will relieve the supply pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing margin by buying at low prices [87]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weak. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices in the medium term [89]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price is affected by the increase in crude oil prices and policy expectations. However, due to the seasonal decline in demand, the price may decline. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable [90][91].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][108]. Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to unresolved negotiations for long-term contracts, with recent price changes of +0.83% for London copper, -0.03% for Shanghai copper, and +1.74% for New York copper. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring financial aspects such as U.S. import investigations and economic data [5][25]. - Aluminum prices are also fluctuating, with a decrease in alumina prices by 3.35% to 3170 CNY/ton, while electrolytic aluminum prices are stable at 20525 CNY/ton, supported by ongoing inventory depletion [5][36]. - Lithium prices are stabilizing at the bottom, with carbonate lithium prices down 0.41% to 60400 CNY/ton, and the report suggests waiting for supply-side reductions and seasonal demand support [5][77]. - Cobalt prices are expected to rebound due to an extended export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may lead to raw material shortages in Q4 [5][90]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector has underperformed, with the Shenwan non-ferrous index down 3.57%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.07 percentage points [11]. - The report notes that the U.S. retail sales for May fell by 0.9%, which was below expectations, while initial jobless claims were in line with forecasts [9]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - London copper prices increased by 0.83%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 0.03%. The report indicates a significant drop in London copper inventory by 13.34% [25]. 2.2 Aluminum - The report states that aluminum prices are experiencing high volatility, with a recent increase in aluminum profits by 3.60% to 4383 CNY/ton [36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices saw a slight increase of 0.23% in London, while zinc prices rose by 1.91% in London [48]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have shown minor fluctuations, with London tin prices up by 0.08% and Shanghai tin prices down by 1.26% [62]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices are under pressure, with carbonate lithium down 0.41% to 60400 CNY/ton, and the report suggests that the market is waiting for supply-side adjustments [77]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are stable domestically, with a slight decrease in MB cobalt prices by 0.32% to 15.63 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices remain unchanged at 23.50 CNY/ton [90].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][72]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: Geopolitical issues abroad are escalating, and gold is expected to maintain a strong trend. As of June 20, the COMEX gold futures contract fell by 1.98% to $3,384.4 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 1.0% to 950.2 tons. The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in June, aligning with market expectations. Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are anticipated due to U.S. policies, trade negotiations, and geopolitical uncertainties, but the demand for safe-haven assets will continue to support gold prices. In the medium to long term, macroeconomic uncertainties abroad will amplify gold's safe-haven attributes, and the weakening of the dollar's credibility is becoming increasingly evident, leading to a positive outlook for gold in the long term [3][6]. - Industrial Metals: Both copper and aluminum inventories are at low levels, and price centers are expected to rise. As of June 20, the LME copper futures contract rose by 0.1% to $9,660.5 per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 145,900 tons as of June 19, with a slight increase of 100 tons. LME copper inventory stood at 99,200 tons, nearing historical lows. Despite being in the traditional off-season for downstream demand, the accumulation of inventory has been slow since June. Global visible inventory has further decreased since May, and the available days of global electrolytic copper continue to decline. Supply tightness is expected to become more pronounced, and the macroeconomic environment suggests that copper prices may gradually rise [4][5]. - Aluminum: As of June 20, the LME aluminum futures contract increased by 2.3% to $2,561.5 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 449,000 tons as of June 19, with a decrease of 11,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory continued to decline, and global electrolytic aluminum inventory levels are decreasing. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains high, with no immediate expectations for new projects. The rising aluminum water ratio may significantly impact the electrolytic aluminum spot market, leading to a downward trend in aluminum ingot inventory. In the medium term, the supply-demand gap is expected to widen, supporting a positive outlook for aluminum prices [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Nonferrous Metal Index Trends - As of June 20, 2025, the nonferrous metal index closed at 5,262.3 points, down 3.0% from the previous period. The precious metal index closed at 18,255.64 points, down 5.3%, while the industrial metal index closed at 1,925.73 points, down 3.2%. The energy metal index closed at 1,521.54 points, down 2.9%. During the same period, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.45% [9]. 2. Precious Metals - Gold is expected to maintain a strong trend due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and macroeconomic factors [3][6]. 3. Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum inventories are low, with expectations for price increases due to supply-demand dynamics [4][5][6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, the recommendation is to pay attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. For copper, the focus is on Zijin Mining. For aluminum, the recommendation is to consider Tianshan Aluminum [6][70].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry [4] Core Views - The escalation of the Middle East situation is likely to increase the allocation to gold as a safe-haven asset, with recommendations to focus on companies such as Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [1][35] - The demand outlook for copper remains uncertain, with prices experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical uncertainties and tariff disruptions, while global copper inventories have increased slightly [1] - The aluminum market is expected to see short-term price strength due to decreasing social inventories, despite an increase in supply expectations [1] - The lithium industry is facing a continued inventory build-up, leading to a weak price outlook in the short term, with a slight increase in production but weak demand from downstream material manufacturers [2] - The silicon metal market is experiencing a loose supply-demand balance, with prices expected to remain under pressure due to increased supply and limited demand growth [2] Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metal sector has generally seen a decline this week, with prices across various non-ferrous products also decreasing [12][21] - The report highlights that the copper price is currently at 77,990 CNY/ton, showing no change week-on-week, while aluminum is at 20,465 CNY/ton, also stable [23] Industrial Metals - Copper: The demand outlook is unclear, with a slight increase in global copper inventories to 519,000 tons, and a year-on-year production increase of 1.1% in Q1 2025 [1] - Aluminum: The production capacity remains stable at 43.89 million tons, with expectations of increased supply but also a potential weakening in market transactions [1] Energy Metals - Lithium: The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has decreased by 2.0% to 64,000 CNY/ton, with a production increase of 2% to 18,500 tons this week [2] - Silicon Metal: The average cost of metal silicon has decreased by 5.6% to 10,767.4 CNY/ton, with a weekly production of 36,600 tons [2] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining for gold, and companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and China Hongqiao for aluminum [1][7]