| 铅锌日评20250630：反弹持续性有限 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/30 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | | | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 17,000.00 0.00% | | | | | | | | 沪铅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,125.00 -0.58% | | | | | | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -125.00 100.00 | | | | | | | | 元/吨 升贴水-上海 -35.00 - 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -22.14 -0.74 | | | | | | | | -58.00 -0.30 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 价差 | | | | | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -50.00 -15.00 | | | | | | | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 -20.00 -15.00 铅 | | | | | | | | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 - 5.00 | | | | | | | | 期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is in a tight balance with low inventory and a high risk of squeezing. After the S232 investigation results are released, the market logic may reverse [1]. - The aluminum market has a short - term stable fundamental situation, with supply and demand expected to be balanced in July. Attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. - The zinc market maintains a short - selling strategy, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets can be held [2]. - For nickel, continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [5]. - The lead market is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, with a slight decrease in supply and weak demand in July [7]. - The tin market can hold long positions cautiously in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - to - long term [10]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to be strong in the short term and will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the medium - to - long term [13]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to continue to face supply surplus and price pressure next week, but the "anti - involution" competition policy may affect sentiment [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 45, the LME inventory decreased by 1,800 tons, and the LME cash - 3M spread changed significantly [1]. - **Market Situation**: The S232 investigation on copper is pending. The US has siphoned a large amount of electrolytic copper, leading to low inventory and a high risk of squeezing. After the investigation results are released, the market logic may change [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 280, and the social inventory remained stable [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increased slightly in 1 - 5 months. Demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July. The market is in a balanced state in terms of supply and demand, and attention should be paid to low - inventory arbitrage opportunities [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the zinc price fluctuated upward. The domestic TC increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the import TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton. The LME inventory decreased by 625 tons [2]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to increase in July. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is also weak. The short - selling strategy remains unchanged, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets can be held [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From June 23 - 27, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 450, and the LME inventory increased by 78 tons [4]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remains high, and the demand is weak. The inventory in overseas nickel plates is stable, and the domestic inventory decreases slightly. Continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The price of waste stainless steel remained stable from June 23 - 27. The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly, and the exchange warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - **Market Situation**: The supply decreased due to production cuts in some steel mills since late May. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [5]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the lead price rebounded from a low level. The LME inventory increased by 175 tons [7]. - **Market Situation**: The supply side has some problems, and the demand side is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,800 - 17,300 next week, and there is a risk of a price - support cycle if the price remains above 17,200 [7]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the tin price fluctuated upward. The LME inventory increased by 60 tons [10]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is affected by the situation in Myanmar, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand in the first half of the year. Cautiously hold long positions in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities in the medium - to - long term [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The base difference strengthened, and the warehouse receipts decreased. The production of leading enterprises decreased significantly, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction [13]. - **Market Situation**: The production of leading enterprises decreased significantly, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, it will be mainly based on the bottom operation of the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: This week, the lithium carbonate price increased due to sentiment speculation. The base difference weakened, and the registered warehouse receipts decreased [15]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to continue to be in surplus next week, and the price is under pressure. However, the "anti - involution" competition policy may affect sentiment [15].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-06-30 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 关注央行季度例会的变化，删除"择机降准降息" 观点分享： 6 月 27 日，央行发布 2025 年二季度货币政策委员会例会通稿，与一季度相比，通稿的 一些变化值得关注。在政策基调上，例会删去了"把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性 改革有机结合起来"，并增加了"把做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位置，统筹好总供给和 总需求的关系"这一表述。；在货币政策思路上，删去了"择机降准降息"，增加了"灵活 把握政策实施力度和节奏的表述"；汇率表述上，删去了"加强市场管理，坚决对市场顺周 期行为进行纠偏，坚决对扰乱市场秩序行为进行处置"的表述。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★★★★ | 铜：价格上涨，主要因微观和宏观形成阶段性共振。铜现货依然偏紧，国内库存低位，LME 库存快速回落，现货持续升水。海外逻辑对价格拉动作用更加明显，美国经济存在底部支 撑，且特朗普对铜存在加征关税的预期，推动 COMEX 铜价涨幅明显，与 LME 铜价差扩大 至 1400 美元/吨附 ...

锌周报 2025 年 6 月 30 日 宏微观共振 锌价低位反弹 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价低位反弹。宏观面看，以伊停火，中东 地缘紧张局势缓和。美国经济就业数据走弱，叠加美联储 官员释放鸽派言论，增强 7 月降息预期，降息及避险回落 影响下，美元跌势不止，利好金属。国内股市持续走强， 且第三批以旧换新资金 7 月下发提振耐用品消费预期，市 场情绪偏好。 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/ 8 基本面看，受罢 ...

2025年06月30日 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 | | --- | 观点与策略 | 铜：美元弱势，支撑价格 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 锌：短期高位，关注量价 | 5 | | 铅：存旺季预期，支撑价格 | 6 | | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 7 | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 7 | | 碳酸锂：基本面承压叠加仓单矛盾，高波动或延续 | 9 | | 工业硅：减产消息扰动，关注上方空间 | 11 | | 多晶硅：关注市场情绪发酵 | 11 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 13 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 14 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 14 | | 硅铁：现货情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 锰硅：港口报价提振，宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 焦炭：震荡偏强 | 18 | | 焦煤：检查扰动持续发酵，震荡偏强 | 18 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 20 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 对二甲苯：供应收缩，月差偏强 | 23 | | PTA：月差反套 | 23 | | MEG：单边偏弱 | 23 ...

首席点评： 美国通胀可能卷土重来 纯碱 ：玻璃期货整理运行。基本面，盘面目前在千元下方逐步止跌，横盘震荡。不过，整体而言市场 依然关注宏观托底背景下微观层面供需消化的成效。数据方面，上周玻璃生产企业库存 5900 万重箱， 环比增加 7 万重箱。纯碱期货反弹。数据层面，上周纯碱生产企业库存 179.3 万吨，环比下降 152 万 吨。综合而言，国内，玻璃纯碱都处于库存承压消化的周期，由于生产利润不佳，目前的去库进程需要 时间。不过，随着国内消费需求的提振，继续关注玻璃纯碱自身的供需消化过程，同时关注商品整体的 回暖对于地产链的需求带动。纯碱而言，总体供给仍有一些变化，后市聚焦于供需的平衡过程，尤其是 供给端的调节能否有助于库存的进一步消化。 一、当日主要新闻关注 1 ）国际新闻 美国总统特朗普表示，他认为自己不需要延长此前为各国设定的 7 月 9 日最后期限，以促使它们与美国 达成协议，从而避免更高的关税。特朗普指责美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔人为地把利率维持在高位，并 表示利率应当只有当前水平的一半甚至更低。 2 ）国内新闻 海关总署公告称，在持续开展针对日本福岛核污染水排海的长期国际监测和中方独立取样监测且结 ...

锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 日期：2025年6月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：中性 锌：中长期基本面偏空，短期关注量价变动 下游开工边际下调 社库低位企稳 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 % 镀锌 压铸锌 氧化锌 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-10 10-22 11-03 11-14 11-26 12-08 12-19 12-31 万吨 ...

铅锌产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-6-27 | 目 | 录 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0 0 1 1 | 报 报 | 告 告 | 摘 摘 | 要 要 | | 0 0 2 2 | 多 多 | 空 空 | 焦 焦 | 点 点 | | 0 0 3 3 | 数 数 | 据 据 | 分 分 | 析 析 | | 4 4 0 0 | 后 后 | 市 市 | 研 研 | 判 判 | | | | 多空焦点 PART 02 多空因素分析（锌） | 利 | 多 | 素 | 利 | 空 | 素 | 因 | 因 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美 | 指 | 数 | 会 | 库 | 存 | 微 | 增 | 明 | 跌 | 社 | 元 | 下 | | | | | | 锌 | 锭 | 放 ...

金属铅概念资金流入榜 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅 | 今日换手率 | 主力资金流量（万 | 主力资金净流入比率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （%） | （%） | 元） | （%） | | 000960 | 锡业股 份 | 5.95 | 4.85 | 18347.12 | 15.00 | | 600711 | ST盛屯 | 4.06 | 2.84 | 5979.69 | 11.19 | | 600961 | 株冶集 团 | 10.05 | 6.85 | 4936.49 | 8.67 | | 603132 | 金徽股 份 | 10.01 | 0.73 | 3426.46 | 37.62 | | 600338 | 西藏珠 峰 | 4.86 | 5.21 | 3105.09 | 5.94 | | 000603 | 盛达资 源 | 2.91 | 3.59 | 2984.22 | 8.22 | | 000426 | 兴业银 | 3.95 | 3.87 | 2836.59 | 2.58 | 截至6月27日收盘，金属铅概念上涨2.55%，位居概念板块涨 ...

Group 1 - 株冶集团 (600961) experienced a trading halt today with a daily turnover rate of 6.85% and a transaction amount of 569 million yuan, showing a fluctuation of 8.78% [2] - The stock was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange due to a daily price deviation of 10.75%, with institutional investors net selling 5.82 million yuan and the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect net selling 619,400 yuan [2] - The top five trading departments accounted for a total transaction amount of 201 million yuan, with a net buying amount of 12.08 million yuan [2] Group 2 - As of June 26, the margin trading balance for the stock was 218 million yuan, with a financing balance of 218 million yuan and a securities lending balance of 238,800 yuan [3] - Over the past five days, the financing balance increased by 14.99 million yuan, representing a growth of 7.39%, while the securities lending balance decreased by 28,140 yuan, a decline of 54.09% [3] - The company's Q1 report indicated a revenue of 4.803 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.50%, and a net profit of 277 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.07% [3]