Market Overview - The A-share market showed a general upward trend today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.63% to close at 3913.72 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.13% to 13760.37 points. The ChiNext Index rose by 0.71% to 3295.88 points, while the STAR Market 50 Index increased by 0.93% to 1300.76 points. Overall, 4335 stocks rose while 1070 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 1853.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 90.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][10]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the leading sectors included pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, beauty care, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, with respective increases of 3.70%, 2.88%, 2.55%, 1.86%, and 1.81%. Conversely, the utilities, telecommunications, banking, coal, and household appliances sectors experienced declines, with decreases of 0.78%, 0.56%, 0.50%, 0.23%, and 0.05% respectively [1][12]. Concept Sector Performance - The concept sectors that saw the highest gains today included lithium mining, lithium battery electrolytes, lithium extraction from salt lakes, innovative drugs, Contract Research Organizations (CRO), generic drugs, antibiotics, Tibet revitalization, weight loss drugs, biotechnology, selected medical services, vitamins, small metals, medical supplies exports, and semiconductor materials [2][11].

Market Performance - The market opened lower but rebounded, with the Shenzhen Component Index rising over 1% [1] - By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.13%, the ChiNext Index by 0.71%, and the STAR Market Index by 1.54% [1] - The trading volume in both markets was below 2 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, with today's volume at 1.85 trillion yuan, a decrease of 90.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Over 4,300 stocks in the market experienced gains [1] Sector Performance - The lithium battery industry chain saw significant growth, with over ten constituent stocks hitting the daily limit, including Rongjie Co., which achieved four consecutive limit-ups, and Shida Shenghua with two consecutive limit-ups [1] - The pharmaceutical sector also performed well, with Keta Bio hitting the daily limit at a 20% increase, and Minophagen achieving five limit-ups in six days [1] - The chemical sector was active, with stocks like Suli Co., Lubnorth Chemical, and Jinzhengda reaching the daily limit [1] Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - A report from Dongxing Securities indicated that as a major oil importer, China faces cost pressures from high oil prices, which could impact the manufacturing export environment [3] - Rising energy prices may alter the Federal Reserve's monetary policy pace, delaying expected interest rate cuts and strengthening the dollar, which could suppress global capital markets [3] - The easing of conflicts is expected to improve market risk appetite, with a potential new market bottom forming around the 3,900-point level [4] - The core logic for the A-share market remains focused on domestic economic recovery, monetary policy, and industrial upgrades, with growth stocks being a key focus area [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower but closed higher, with the Shenzhen Component Index rising over 1% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.85 trillion, a decrease of 903 billion compared to the previous trading day [1][5] - More than 4,300 stocks in the market experienced gains, indicating a broad-based rally [1] Sector Performance - The lithium battery industry chain saw significant gains, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, including Rongjie Co., Ltd. with four consecutive limit-ups and Shida Shenghua with two consecutive limit-ups [1] - The pharmaceutical sector also performed well, with Keta Bio hitting the daily limit and several other stocks showing strong upward momentum [1] - The chemical sector was active, with stocks like Suli Co., Ltd. and Luban Chemical hitting the daily limit [1] Declines - In contrast, several stocks in the green energy sector experienced declines, with Liaoning Energy hitting the limit down and other companies like Jieneng Wind Power and Hunan Development also facing significant drops [2] Closing Statistics - At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.13%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.71% [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products on March 27, 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC. All products are rated as "oscillating", and the geopolitical situation is the main factor affecting the market [1][3][5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices moved higher. WTI April contract closed up $4.16 to $94.48 per barrel, a 4.61% increase. Brent May contract closed up $5.79 to $108.01 per barrel, a 5.66% increase. SC2605 closed at 744.6 yuan per barrel, up 16.2 yuan per barrel, a 2.22% increase. Market sentiment towards the geopolitical situation is cautious. The supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a loss of 13 - 14 million barrels of oil per day, but the duration is uncertain [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.18% at 4,393 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 closed down 1.34% at 5,066 yuan per ton. The fundamentals of both low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets remain strong. The short - term crack spreads of high and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to remain high [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2606 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 4.17% at 4,543 yuan per ton. The expected domestic asphalt production in April 2026 is 1.527 million tons, a decrease of 22.4% month - on - month and 33.3% year - on - year. The short - term asphalt price is expected to remain high [3][5] - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6,778 yuan per ton, up 2.82%. EG2605 closed at 5,058 yuan per ton, up 0.44%. PX futures main contract 605 closed at 9,774 yuan per ton, up 2.86%. The short - term polyester price will fluctuate widely following the cost [5] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2605 rose 30 yuan per ton to 16,460 yuan per ton. The spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber may continue to widen [5][6] - **Methanol**: The inventory has started to decline. The supply from Iranian plants may gradually recover, which may suppress the price increase, but the Iranian situation is unclear [6] - **Polyolefins**: The market is in a de - stocking rhythm, but the short - term geopolitical risk pushes up the cost, compressing the downstream profit margin, and the subsequent demand growth may be hindered [6][7] - **PVC**: The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, while the profit of the calcium carbide - based method has strengthened rapidly. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand will gradually recover, maintaining a de - stocking rhythm [7] Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy and chemical products on March 26 and 25, 2026, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, linear low - density polyethylene, polypropylene, etc. [8] Market News - Market sentiment towards the geopolitical situation is cautious. The negotiation process between the US and Iran is difficult. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, it may lead to a loss of 13 - 14 million barrels of oil per day. The export volume of Yanbu Port and Fujairah Port has rebounded recently [10] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report shows the historical closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [12][13][14][15][17][18][21][22][24][26][28] - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the historical basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [30][32][34][36][39][40][41] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: It shows the historical spread charts of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [44][46][49][52][53][56][58] - **Inter - variety Spread**: It provides the historical spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, PP - LLDPE, natural rubber - 20 - number rubber, etc. [60][62][64][68] - **Production Profit**: It shows the historical production profit and processing fee charts of various energy and chemical products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, ethylene - based ethylene glycol, etc. [70][72] Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy and chemical research team, including Deputy Director Zhong Meiyan, Research Director Du Bingqin, Analyst Di Yilin, and Analyst Peng Haibo, along with their professional backgrounds, honors, and research areas [75][76][77][78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - EG main port continued to accumulate inventory this week, and the inflection point should be noted [1] - EG load continued to decline, and port inventory started to decrease [1] - From March, the inventory will start to decrease, and the expected decline in April will increase. With the import volume reaching a low level and the increase in overseas exports, the depletion of ethylene glycol social inventory will significantly accelerate [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 5,058 yuan/ton (a change of +22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a range of +0.44%), the spot price in the East China market of EG was 4,988 yuan/ton (a change of +125 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a range of +2.57%), and the basis of EG East China spot was -45 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of +2 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene-based EG was -290 US dollars/ton (a month-on-month decrease of -8 US dollars/ton), and the production gross profit of coal-based syngas EG was 136 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of -391 yuan/ton) [1] - Due to concerns about the stability of upstream raw material supply, the domestic ethylene glycol load decreased; currently, the overseas load is at a low level, and China's import of EG from the Middle East accounts for a relatively large proportion. Under the influence of the situation in Iran, there is an expectation of further reduction in imports [2] International Price Difference - The international price difference of ethylene glycol: US FOB - China CFR. However, no specific price difference data is provided [21] Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The polyester and weaving loads are difficult to continue to increase, and downstream acceptance of high-priced raw materials is low. The voices of production cuts are increasing. Recently, the sales of filament have been continuously sluggish, and the inventory of filaments and staple fibers has rapidly accumulated. The polyester load is lower than that of the same period last year. If the downstream continues not to replenish inventory, the load may decline [2] Inventory Data - According to the data released by CCF every Monday, the inventory of the MEG East China main port was 1.039 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 28,000 tons); the main port slightly accumulated inventory last week [1] - According to CCF data, the total planned arrivals at the East China main port this week are 117,000 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary port are 10,000 tons. The inventory is expected to remain stable [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low levels. Pay attention to the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz and the changes in ethylene glycol plants [3] - Inter-period: 5 - 9 positive spread under the influence of supply [3] - Inter-variety: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillation [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillation [2][3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillation [4][5] - Thermal Coal: No strategy provided [6] Core Views - Steel: The market sentiment is poor, and steel prices maintain an oscillatory trend. The current price fluctuations mainly depend on raw material prices, and the cost support from steel mills is strong [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price shows relative strength in the short - term, but in the long - term, a large release of liquidity may cause the price to fall. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and negotiation progress [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the prices are oscillating. The coke market is supported by coking coal costs, and attention should be paid to international situations, energy prices, and seasonal demand for finished products [4][5]. - Thermal Coal: The demand is stable, and the coal price in the production area is running strongly. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3128 yuan/ton and 3305 yuan/ton respectively. The spot trading is generally weak, with low - price trading being acceptable. The overall basis has slightly expanded, and the national building materials trading volume is 89110 tons [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply - demand of building materials has seasonally improved, and the inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing. The production and sales of plates have significantly improved, but the inventory is still at a high level, suppressing the price. The price fluctuations mainly depend on raw material prices, and the cost support from steel mills is strong due to rising energy prices [1]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is oscillatory, and no strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [1]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The futures price of iron ore has slightly rebounded. The spot trading volume at the main ports has decreased by 19.33% to 68.97 tons, while the trading volume of forward - looking spot has increased by 96.15% to 51 tons [2]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The arrival volume at 47 ports and 45 ports has slightly increased. The blast furnaces are being restarted as planned, and the molten iron output is rising. The port inventory is still at a historical high. In the short - term, the iron ore price is relatively strong, but in the long - term, a large release of liquidity may cause the price to fall [2]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is oscillatory, and no strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the coking coal and coke futures are oscillating. The coke spot market is supported by coking coal costs, but the terminal's high - price acceptance is weak, and the trading at the port has weakened. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is stable at around 1160 - 1170 yuan/ton [4]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: After the Two Sessions, coal mines in the production area are resuming production steadily. The import of seaborne coal is tight due to the inverted price difference. The profit of coke by - products has increased, and the coke profit is at a good level. Attention should be paid to international situations, energy prices, and seasonal demand for finished products [4][5]. - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke trading are oscillatory, and no strategies are provided for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: The coal price in the main production areas is running strongly. The demand from metallurgy and chemical industries is good, and the price at the port and for external purchases has increased. The coal mine inventory is low, and the market sentiment is positive. The port market is also strong, with increased non - power demand and high arrival costs. The import coal market is also strong, with high costs [6]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The downstream demand is good, and the coal price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [6]. - Strategy: No strategy is provided [6].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - There are various events and trends in different industries. In the production industry, there are significant achievements in RISC - V technology and diplomatic discussions on the Iran nuclear issue. In the service industry, the establishment of a long - term care insurance system is being promoted. Upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries show different price and operation trends [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Production Industry - At the RISC - V ecological technology forum of the Zhongguancun Forum Annual Conference, the Chinese Academy of Sciences announced important achievements in RISC - V and started the joint R & D of the next - generation chip and operating system. Dozens of units will collaborate across the chip, operating system, terminal, and application chains [1] - On March 26, 2026, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi talked with Canadian Foreign Minister Anand, stating that the Iran nuclear issue should be resolved through dialogue [1] Service Industry - On the 26th, eight departments including the National Healthcare Security Administration issued an implementation plan to accelerate the establishment of a long - term care insurance system [2] Upstream Industry - In the non - ferrous sector, aluminum prices are continuously falling. In the agricultural sector, egg prices are rising. In the energy sector, international crude oil prices are fluctuating, and liquefied natural gas prices are rising [3] Mid - stream Industry - In the chemical industry, PX operating rate is falling, PTA operating rate is rising, and polyester operating rate is at a low level. In the energy industry, power plant coal consumption is decreasing. In the infrastructure industry, the operating rate of road asphalt is at a low level [3] Downstream Industry - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are seasonally falling. In the service sector, the number of domestic flights is at a medium level [4] Price Index - On March 26, various industries' price indexes showed different trends. For example, the spot price of corn increased by 0.18%, the spot price of eggs increased by 4.06%, and the spot price of aluminum decreased by 3.97% [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not available in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, etc. It evaluates the short - and medium - term trends of each commodity, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and cost changes [2][5][10] - For most commodities, the report gives a short - term or medium - term trend judgment, and provides corresponding trading strategies and risk warnings 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Short - term in a volatile market, medium - term still bullish. PXN remains at a low level, China's PX operating rate drops to 84%, PTA demand increases, and it is expected to accelerate inventory depletion in April. The operation suggestion is to go long on dips [5][8][10] - **PTA**: Short - term correction, medium - term still bullish. PTA operating rate rises to 84.5%, polyester operating rate drops to 86.8%. PTA spot sales are difficult, and the basis is low. It is recommended to hold a long PX and short PTA position [5][8][10] - **MEG**: Short - term pressure, medium - term bullish. The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate drops from 80% to 66%, and there are many overseas plant shutdowns. Polyester operating rate drops, and short - term sales are difficult. The strategy is to operate in the 4500 - 6000 range and conduct a 5 - 9 spread long [5][8][10] Rubber - Wide - range volatile. Market sentiment turns to more divergent views between bulls and bears. The domestic Yunnan production area has entered trial tapping, and Hainan and Vietnam are about to start tapping. The social inventory of natural rubber is still at a high level, which restricts the upward space of prices [11][12][14] Synthetic Rubber - Intra - day wide - range volatile with the price center rising. The domestic butadiene inventory is decreasing, and the inventory of synthetic rubber sample enterprises is also decreasing. The basic situation is relatively strong, but the downstream is resistant to high prices [15][16][17] LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: Operating rate continues to decline, and raw material prices correct under negative feedback. The supply of PE is affected by new production and maintenance, and the cost is rising. The demand for mulch film is in line with the season, and the packaging film operating rate is rising [18][19] - **PP**: C3 raw materials fluctuate greatly, and the basis is weakly stable. C3 is affected by supply disturbances from Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the cost support is strong. The supply - demand game of existing stocks intensifies, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of cracking and PDH devices [18][19] Caustic Soda - Wide - range volatile. The 32 - alkali price in Shandong has increased. The short - term basis will converge due to the approaching delivery of the 04 contract. In the long - term, the supply and demand situation will be affected by the Middle East situation [22][23][24] Pulp - Oscillating. The average spot price of imported pulp has decreased slightly this week. The market is relatively calm, and the demand is mainly based on rigid needs. The port inventory is increasing, which drags down the pulp price [27][30][32] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The domestic float glass market price shows a trend of falling in the north and rising in the south, but the overall fluctuation range is limited, and the market transaction is generally average [33][34] Methanol - Wide - range volatile. The port methanol market price is high and volatile, and the inventory continues to decline. The price of inland methanol has increased, and the market sentiment is optimistic. The price is expected to be affected by international energy prices and the domestic basic situation [36][39][40] Urea - Ranging. The domestic urea enterprise inventory is decreasing, and the industrial demand is increasing. The basic situation is neutral to strong, but the price is restricted by policies [42][43][44] Styrene - High - level volatile. The supply of pure benzene in Asia is expected to decrease, and the export of styrene is increasing. The downstream is actively replenishing inventory. The current valuation has room to move up [45][46][47] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is stable and oscillating, the enterprise devices are operating stably, and the downstream demand is not strong [51] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Geopolitical risks still exist, and supply disturbances occur frequently. The price of CP paper goods has decreased, and there are many domestic PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [53][58][59] - **Propylene**: Affected by geopolitics at the cost end, the supply is expected to decrease. The operating rate of PDH has decreased [53] PVC - Wide - range volatile. The PVC social inventory is increasing. In the short - term, the high inventory needs time to digest, and the downstream is resistant to high prices. In the long - term, the market will be supported by the spill - over of the Middle East situation and cost increases [61] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Narrow - range volatile during the day and a slight rebound at night [64] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Relatively weak in the short - term, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to decline [64] Container Freight Index (European Line) - The spot is under pressure, and the market pays attention to geopolitical disturbances. The near - and far - month contracts show different trends. The supply in April and May is increasing, the demand is recovering seasonally, and the freight rate is expected to decline slightly [66][76][77] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: Short - term volatile. The short - fiber futures are rising, the spot price is stable, and the sales rate has decreased [82] - **Bottle Chip**: Short - term volatile. The upstream raw material futures are rising, the factory price is mostly stable, and the market transaction is acceptable [83] Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see. The price in the Shandong and Guangdong markets is stable, the demand is weak, and the supply - demand contradiction still exists [85][86][88] Pure Benzene - High - level volatile. The port inventory of pure benzene is decreasing, and the price is rising. The cracking device reduces the load, which is beneficial to the port inventory depletion [89][90]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content available. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The OECD expects the global economic growth rate to be 2.9% in 2026 and rise slightly to 3% in 2027. The US economic growth rate is expected to slow from 2% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, and the inflation rate in the US this year will reach 4.2%, much higher than the Fed's expectation. The eurozone economic growth rate is expected to drop to 0.8% in 2026 and rebound to 1.2% in 2027. The uncertainty in the Middle East situation poses a test to global economic resilience. If energy prices remain high for a long time, it will significantly increase corporate costs, push up the inflation level, and drag down the global economic growth outlook [5][18]. - The Chinese government's work report in 2026 sets an annual economic growth target range of 4.5% - 5% and requires efforts to achieve better results in actual work. The overall labor productivity needs to be higher than the GDP growth rate, and R & D investment is used to drive the improvement of total factor productivity to offset the decline of the demographic dividend. The urbanization rate target is raised to 71.0%, with the focus shifting to quality improvement, and domestic demand potential is released through citizenization. It is expected that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield will tend to fluctuate within a narrow range at a low level due to the downward - shifting growth target, and the growth of labor productivity provides a lower - bound support through the wage - inflation spiral [26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - GDP in Q4 2025 grew by 4.5% year - on - year, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 49.2% in the previous month and 50.2% in the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, the same as the previous month but down from 50.4% in the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the monthly value of social financing scale was 2385.5 billion yuan, down from 2492.6 billion yuan in the previous month but up from 2233.1 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, M0, M1, and M2 increased by 14.1%, 5.9%, and 9.0% year - on - year respectively, higher than the previous month and the same period last year. The new RMB loans of financial institutions in February 2026 were 900 billion yuan, up from 390 billion yuan in the previous month but down from 1010 billion yuan in the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, up from 0.7% in the previous month and - 0.7% in the same period last year; PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.2% in the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.8%, up from - 2.6% in the previous period but down from 4.1% in the same period last year; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 2.8%, down from 4.0% in the previous period and the same period last year [1]. - In February 2026, the monthly export amount increased by 39.6% year - on - year, up from 5.9% in the previous month and - 3.1% in the same period last year; the monthly import amount increased by 13.8% year - on - year, up from 1.9% in the previous month and 1.6% in the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The Ministry of Commerce will promote the implementation of policies to stimulate inbound consumption and expand service exports. It is expected that China's foreign trade will maintain a stable and positive trend, and efforts will be made to attract foreign investment [2]. - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange has set trading limits and margin ratios for the EC2703 contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures [2]. - On March 26, 34 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 35 had negative basis. Among them, Shanghai tin, Shanghai nickel, and Zhengzhou cotton had the largest basis, while apples, strong wheat, and common wheat had the smallest basis [3]. - US President Trump will visit China from May 14 to 15, 2026, and the two sides are in communication about this [3][16]. - Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to 8 p.m. on April 6, 2026, US Eastern Time. Iran responded to the US cease - fire proposal with four conditions [4][16]. - The US Department of Defense is formulating a so - called "final blow" military option against Iran, and Iran has organized over one million people for ground combat and warned of opening a new front [5][16]. 3.2.2 Metals - In the two weeks after the Iran war, the Turkish central bank sold and swapped about 60 tons of gold, putting downward pressure on gold prices. The Turkish gold reserve decreased by 6 tons in the week of March 13 and 52.4 tons in the week of March 20 [6]. - In January 2026, there was a surplus of 17,000 tons in the global refined copper market [6]. - On March 25, the inventory of aluminum, zinc, tin, copper, nickel, lead decreased, while the inventory of aluminum alloy and cobalt remained stable [6]. - As of the week of March 20, Russia's central bank gold and foreign exchange reserves were 776.8 billion US dollars, down from 803.2 billion US dollars in the previous period [7]. - In February, Hong Kong's gold exports to the Chinese mainland were 63.818 metric tons, up from 36.544 metric tons in January [7]. - On March 25, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose by 4960 yuan to 152,500 yuan per ton, rising for two consecutive days [8]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In February 2026, China exported 783.8 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%, and the export average price was 729 US dollars per ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.7% [9]. - The Indian steel ministry is seeking help from the petroleum ministry to deal with the liquefied petroleum gas shortage in steel mills [9]. - A new large - scale light rare - earth mine was discovered in Sichuan, with an additional rare - earth resource amount of 966.6 million tons in the Maoniuping mining area [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The fuel surcharge for domestic airline tickets will increase on April 5, 2026 [10]. - The BASF (Guangdong) integrated base has been fully put into operation, with 18 sets of equipment, 32 production lines, and more than 70 products [10]. - As of the week of March 20, the US natural gas inventory was 182.9 billion cubic feet, a decrease of 5.4 billion cubic feet from the previous week, an increase of 9 billion cubic feet from the same period last year, and an increase of 1.4 billion cubic feet from the five - year average [11]. - The Trump administration is reported to be studying the economic impact of oil prices soaring to 200 US dollars per barrel, but the White House denies this [11]. - Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq has to cut oil production, and the output of its southern main oil fields has dropped by 80% to about 800,000 barrels per day [11]. - Two major Russian oil shipping ports in the Baltic Sea were attacked by Ukrainian drones, and about 40% of Russia's crude oil export capacity has been suspended [12]. - Barclays Bank warns that if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lasts for more than a few weeks, the global oil market may lose up to 14 million barrels of supply per day [12]. - The US diesel market shows signs of supply shortage, and the average diesel price in California has exceeded the historical high [12]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of March 25, 2026, the import of Australian beef has reached 50% of the annual quota, and a 55% tariff will be imposed thereafter [13]. - The domestic pig price is expected to remain low in the first half of 2026 and may strengthen around July. The supply of standard pigs will be concentrated from March to July 2026, and the market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [13][14]. - The EU Commission predicts that the available output of EU common wheat in the 2026/27 season will be 125.9 million tons, down from 134.2 million tons in the 2025/26 season [14]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On March 26, the central bank conducted 224 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 211 billion yuan [15]. 3.3.2 Key News - Trump will visit China from May 14 to 15, 2026, and the two sides are in communication [3][16]. - Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities, and Iran responded to the US cease - fire proposal [4][16]. - The US Department of Defense is formulating a military option against Iran, and Iran has made preparations for ground combat [5][16]. - The central budget in 2026 has added 49 specific projects, and the disclosure of departmental budgets and budget performance targets has been strengthened [17]. - Eight departments including the National Healthcare Security Administration have issued a plan to establish a long - term care insurance system, with a total premium rate of about 0.3% [17]. - The OECD released an economic outlook report, predicting global and regional economic growth rates and warning of the impact of the Middle East situation on the global economy [5][18]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation held a symposium on fair competition among enterprises and will strengthen antitrust supervision and support enterprises to expand overseas markets [18]. - The South Korean Ministry of Finance will repurchase 5 trillion won of national bonds in two batches to stabilize the bond market [19]. - There are major events in the bond market, including new defaults, changes in controlling shareholders, mergers, and bond redemptions [19]. - Credit rating agencies have made ratings and rating adjustments for some domestic and foreign entities [19]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The inter - bank bond market in China has warmed up, with the yields of major interest - rate bonds falling, and the bond futures rising. The money market is generally loose, and the short - term interest rates show different trends [20][21][22]. - The exchange bond market has mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling [20]. - The convertible bond index has fallen, with some convertible bonds rising and some falling [20][21]. - The yields of European and US bonds have generally risen [23][24]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down on March 26, and the RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was depreciated. The US dollar index rose, and non - US currencies generally fell [25]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the government work report in 2026 has set an economic growth target, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate at a low level [26]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On March 27, 179 bonds will be listed, 134 bonds will be issued, 163 bonds will be paid, and 320 bonds will pay principal and interest [27]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The A - share market fell with shrinking trading volume. The battery industry chain rose, while insurance stocks and some technology - related sectors fell [28]. - The Hong Kong stock market fell, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index both dropping significantly. Consumer and technology stocks were hit hard, and southbound funds had a net inflow [28].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹产量环比下降，表观需求继续增加，库存进入去化阶段。螺纹总体供需相对平衡， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 华东库存仍偏高。国内政策预期不强，但外部扰动较强，原料端波动较大，另外偏高的 | | | | 形成一定支撑，钢材短期或震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需环比上升，库存小幅下降，绝对水平仍偏高，供需总体相对平稳。目前 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 行情受外部扰动影响较大，铁矿也带来成本支撑，短期或震荡反复。 | | 铁矿石 | | 铁水产量环比继续增加，库存去化，基本面整体好转，但矛盾不明显。价格震荡偏弱运 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 行。原油系大幅波动或对资金情绪造成影响，谨慎操作。 | | | | 焦企利润有所改善，开工持稳，部分地区受环保限产影响有所减产。从需求来看，铁水产量 | | 焦炭 ★ | 谨慎看空 | 环比继续增加，补库积极性增加，焦企库存维持去化状态。整体供需相对平衡，跟随焦煤 | | | | 区间运行。 | | | | 国内煤矿日产继续回升，从需求来看，近期线上竞拍成交 ...