0，PTA观点评分：0，PR观点评分：0）。 参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。本 免责声明： 宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构，已具备期货交易咨询业务资格。 本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不 保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供 | | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/22 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/7/21 | 美元/桶 | 67.20 | 67.34 | -0.21% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/7/21 | 美元/桶 | 69.21 | 69.28 | -0.10% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/7/21 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on July 21, 2025 - A-share market: The three major A-share indices strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.72% to 3559.79, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.86% to 11007.49, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.87% to 2296.88. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 128.9 billion yuan from last Friday [1]. - Index performance: The CSI 300 index closed at 4085.61, up 27.06 [2]. 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1. Coal Futures - Coke: The weighted coke index closed at 1614.2, up 79.5 [3]. - Coking coal: The weighted coking coal index closed at 1024.1 yuan, up 75.8 [4]. 2.2. Other Futures - Zhengzhou sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract oscillated slightly higher during the day and slightly lower at night [5]. - Rubber: Shanghai rubber oscillated slightly higher during the day and higher at night. As of July 20, the total inventory in Qingdao decreased by 0.28% [6]. - Palm oil: It showed a trend of rising and then falling, closing at 8910, up 0.6% [7][8]. - Shanghai copper: The price was boosted by policies, consumer demand, and supply concerns [8]. - Iron ore: The 2509 main contract rose 2.08% to 809 yuan [9]. - Asphalt: The 2509 main contract rose 0.27% to 3657 yuan [9]. - Logs: The 2509 contract reached a 4 - month high and then fell, with increased volume and reduced positions [9]. - Cotton: The night - session of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14165 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased by 31 lots [10]. - Steel: The rb2510 closed at 3224 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3394 yuan/ton, driven by policy benefits [10]. - Alumina: The ao2509 closed at 3386 yuan/ton, with the price rising due to policy and inventory factors [11]. - Shanghai aluminum: The al2509 closed at 20840 yuan/ton, supported by policies and demand expectations [13]. 3. Market Influencing Factors 3.1. Coal Market - Coke: Spot coking coal prices are rising, some coking plants may cut production, and a second price increase is expected next week. Steel mills' high profits support short - term coke demand [5]. - Coking coal: Domestic mines are复产 slowly, port customs clearance is low, and there is a risk of a large number of Russian coal arrivals in mid - to - late August [5]. 3.2. Other Markets - Zhengzhou sugar: Supported by Coca - Cola's formula change and domestic production data [5]. - Rubber: Affected by unfavorable weather for tapping in Southeast Asia and reduced inventory in Qingdao [6]. - Palm oil: Exports from Malaysia decreased from July 1 - 20 [8]. - Shanghai copper: Influenced by inflation, policies, consumer demand, and supply concerns [8]. - Iron ore: Global shipments decreased slightly, domestic arrivals increased, and steel mills' production remained high [9]. - Asphalt: The plant's operating rate decreased, social inventory was low, and demand improved [9]. - Logs: Import volume decreased, port shipments decreased, and spot trading was weak [10]. - Steel and non - ferrous metals: Supported by policies such as "anti - involution" and industry structure adjustment [10][11][13]

| 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6862 | 4780 | 4410 | 6432 | 512.3 | | 涨跌 | 6810 | 36 | 34 | 60 | -3.5 | | 涨跌幅 | 52 | 0.76% | 0.78% | 0.94% | -0.68% | | 月差 | PX9-1 | PTA9-1 | MEG9-1 | PF8-9 | SC8-9 | | 昨日收盘价 | 92 | 16 | 3 | 16 | 25.8 | | 前日收盘价 | 140 | 52 | 16 | 40 | 16.2 | | 涨跌 | -48 | -36 | -13 | -24 | 9.6 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PTA 华东（元/吨） | MEG 现货 | 石脑油 MOPJ | Dated 布伦特 (美 | | | 金/吨） | | | | 金/桶) | | 昨日价格 | 842.33 | 4782 | 4467 | 572.88 | 70 ...

| M | E | G | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 新 | 单 | 位 | 值 | 前 | ...

文字早评 2025/07/22 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 宏观消息面： 1、李强签署国务院令 公布《住房租赁条例》； 2、李家超：进一步促进股票市场流动性 吸引全球更多优质企业来港上市； 3、比亚迪：2024 年报拟 10 送 8 转 12 A 股股权登记日为 2025 年 7 月 28 日； 4、美媒爆美欧贸易谈判进展不顺 欧盟准备反击 或将前所未有启用"反胁迫工具"。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.27%/-0.51%/-1.27%/-1.89%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.89%/-1.72%/-3.76%/-5.60%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-1.16%/-2.25%/-5.07%/-7.46%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.04%/-0.04%/-0.09%/-0.09%。 策略：基本面看，二季度经济数据在关税扰动下维持韧性，6 月经济数据整体略超预期，出口受关税缓 和后外需回暖、抢出口及抢转口效应提振延续增长，此前 6 月 PMI 供需两端回升也指向 6 月经济数据不 弱，但往后看，抢出口效应可能边际弱化。资金情况而言，月中可能面临税期走款、政府债 ...

内容概要：近年来，平顶山市锚定"两个确保"，深入实施"十大战略"，紧扣"壮大新动能、奋进百强 市"目标，抢抓"两重""两新"机遇，落实落细存量政策和一揽子增量政策，全力以赴稳经济、育新质、 转动能、防风险、惠民生，克服了外部环境复杂多变、超出预料突发因素和风险的巨大挑战，经济运行 呈现稳中向好、好中向新的发展态势。平顶山市因地制宜加快发展新质生产力，塑造发展新动能，培育 壮大新兴产业、抢滩占先未来产业、加快工业数字化转型，不断加快构建现代化产业体系、提升区域创 新能力步伐，着力培育壮大7大产业集群12条制造业重点产业链，"7群12链"加快成势，产业体系日趋完 善，制造业的规模能级和整体竞争力持续提高，发展动能更加强劲。 上市企业：平煤股份（601666.SH）、神马股份（600810.SH）、东方碳素（832175.BJ）、平高电气 （600312.SH） 相关企业：神马实业股份有限公司、平顶山东方碳素股份有限公司、平顶山市锦华新材料科技有限公 司、神马屹立(河南)纤维有限公司、平顶山三信新材料科技有限公司、河南神马隆腾新材料有限公司、 平顶山奥峰新材料科技有限公司、平顶山旭阳新材料有限公司、河南平高电气股份 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade policy uncertainty is rising in the short - term, with the dollar index expected to decline; the stock market is in a capital - driven market with abundant liquidity, and the bond market will remain volatile until substantial bullish factors such as interest rate cuts materialize [15][18][21]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, power coal prices are expected to remain high in the short - term but face seasonal pressure after August; the price of some metals and energy - chemical products is affected by supply - demand, policies, and other factors [3][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury Secretary said trade negotiations are progressing steadily. Gold prices have risen strongly, and the short - term trend is volatile, facing a directional choice [11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - The US Republican accused the Fed Chairman of perjury, and the White House said Trump may issue more tariff letters before August 1. The dollar index is expected to decline in the short - term [13][15][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The 7 - month LPR remained unchanged, and the State Council announced the "Housing Rental Regulations". It is recommended to allocate various stock indexes evenly [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project started, and the central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation. Before interest rate cuts and other substantial bullish factors, the bond market will remain volatile. It is recommended to sell long positions when the futures rebound and continue to allocate medium - term long positions at low prices [20][21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is approaching 1 million tons, and the excellent rate of US soybeans has slightly decreased. The short - term futures price is expected to be volatile [22][23]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased from July 1 - 20, while the production increased. It is not recommended to over - short palm oil. Wait for the price to fall and then consider long positions [24][25][28]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The import of syrup and premixed powder decreased in June, and the net short position of ICE raw sugar decreased. The short - term Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 5900 [29][30][32]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The daily output of Indonesia's Dexin Steel exceeded 20,000 tons, and the investment in water conservancy construction increased in the first half of the year. Steel prices are strong in the short - term, but risks should be vigilant after August [33][34][36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The export of corn starch decreased significantly in June. Starch enterprises are expected to continue to operate at a loss or with low profits, and the opening rate is expected to remain low [37]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Wuhai is strong. The short - term coking coal futures price is expected to be volatile, waiting for changes in the supply side [38][39]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The auction volume of imported corn decreased on July 22. It is recommended to hold a small number of short positions in new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [40]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The social electricity consumption increased by 5.4% in June. The steam coal price is expected to remain high in the short - term, but seasonal pressure should be noted after August [41][42]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The investment in water conservancy construction increased in the first half of the year. The long - term upward pressure on iron ore prices is limited, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [43][44]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The export of Chinese photovoltaic modules decreased in June. It is recommended to go long at low prices, and the price is expected to run at a low level within the price limit [45][46][47]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The export of industrial silicon increased in June. The short - term industrial silicon is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang [48][49]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The import of copper ore, scrap copper, and refined copper changed in June. The copper price is expected to be volatile and strong, and it is recommended to wait and see [50][52][54]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Lifezone released a feasibility study report on its nickel project. The short - term nickel price may be strong, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [55][56][57]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The import of lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene decreased in June, and Yichun Yinli will conduct maintenance. It is recommended to stop profiting from long positions and consider reverse arbitrage [58][60][62]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount on July 18, and the export of lead - acid batteries decreased in June. It is recommended to buy at low prices in the short - term [63][64][65]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The export of die - cast zinc alloy and galvanized sheets increased, and the import of zinc concentrate increased in the first half of the year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in the near - month spread [66][67][69]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle - East frozen LPG decreased. The fundamentals are weak, and there is insufficient upward driving force [70][71][72]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Turkey will terminate the Iraq oil pipeline agreement in July 2026. The short - term crude oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range [73][74]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased locally on July 21. It is difficult for the caustic soda price to continue rising [75][77][78]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp increased. The upward space of the pulp price is limited due to unchanged supply - demand [79][80]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder increased. The PVC price may have limited upward movement due to inventory accumulation [81]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries decreased. It is recommended to wait and see as the asphalt price needs oil price as a driving force [82][83]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price increased slightly on July 21. The short - term PX price is expected to be volatile and strong [84]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The spot basis of PTA decreased significantly. The PTA price may be strong in the short - term following the domestic commodity market [85][86]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The export of urea increased in June. The urea price may be slightly strong, oscillating around 1700 [87][88]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The port inventory of styrene increased. The short - term styrene price is affected by macro factors, and the pure benzene price is expected to oscillate and repair [89][90]. 3.2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chip factories increased slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing fee of bottle chips by going long at low prices [90][91]. 3.2.28 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased. It is risky to short - sell in the short - term, and wait for policy guidance [92][93]. 3.2.29 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei increased on July 21. It is recommended to consider the cross - variety arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [94].

分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【金融工程】医药主题产品表现持续占优，被动资金加仓金融地产、红利主题 ETF—— 基金市场与 ESG 产品周报 20250721 权益市场持续上行背景下，本周权益类基金净值表现依旧领先，偏股混合型基金上涨 3.06%。行业主题基金来看，各赛道主题基金净值再度抬升，医药主题基金表现优势 显著；被动产品方面，港股医药、通信等主题产品净值表现占优。股票型 ETF 资金 呈现止盈，被动资金持续减仓大盘宽基 ETF，金融地产、红利等主题 ETF 资金流入明 显，港股 ETF 资金流入趋势不改。 【策略】【光大策略】偏股型基金持仓数据库-更新至 2025Q2 2025 年 7 月 22 日 晨会速递 规模与仓位：二季度偏股型基金整体仓位小幅提升，港股仓位抬升明显。 A 股配置： 偏股型基金加仓部分成长及金融，减仓消费。 重仓股：偏股型基金加成靠前个股多 为 TMT 及港股医药，而减仓靠前个股多偏消费。 行业研究 【环保】雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程正式开工，水电设备"双寡头"有望受益——碳中 和领域动态追踪（一百六十一）(买入) 雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程正式开工，工程总投资规模约 1.2 万亿元， ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 李卓雅 从业资格证号：F03144512 投资咨询证号：Z0022217 电话：021-68757827 邮箱：lizy@qh168.com.cn 彭亚勇 从业资格证号：F03142221 投资咨询证号：Z0021750 电话：021-68757827 邮箱：pengyy@qh168.com.cn 2025年7月22日 研究所晨会观点精萃 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 ...

首席点评 ： 商品多数上涨，重视政策决心 美国 10 年期国债收益率跌穿 200 日均线，报 4.35% ，日内当前跌约 6 个基点，处于连续第四个交易日 下跌之中。 20 年期美债收益率跌超 7.3 个基点，刷新日低、逼近 4.9% ； 30 年期美债收益率跌 7.3 个 基点，刷新日低、逼近 4.91% 。郑商所经研究决定， 2025 年 7 月 22 日丙烯期货首批上市交易合约 PL2601 、 PL2602 、 PL2603 、 PL2604 、 PL2605 、 PL2606 和 PL2607 的挂牌基准价为 6350 元 / 吨。 焦煤夜盘收涨超 6.3% ，纯碱、玻璃、焦炭涨超 3% ，铁矿石涨 0.7% 。 重点品种：股指、焦煤、黄金 股指： 美国三大指数上涨为主，上一交易日股指上涨，建筑材料板块领涨，银行板块领跌，市场成交 额 1.73 万亿元。资金方面， 7 月 18 日融资余额减少 19.90 亿元至 18891.67 亿元。 2025 年以来高息低 波的银行板块表现优异，在当前无风险利率较低的市场环境中成为资金配置的选择之一。当前美国重启 对各国加征关税，但市场对其敏感度有所下降。我们 ...