A股三大指数早盘集体下跌，截至午间收盘，沪指跌0.56%报3949.83点，深成指跌0.43%，创业板指跌 0.43%，北证50指数跌2.14%。沪深京三市半日成交额12962亿元，较上日放量179亿元，全市场超1300 只个股上涨。盘面上，电池、煤炭、化工板块跌幅居前，AI语料、文化传媒板块走强。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is promoting electricity demand-side management in the industrial sector by collecting typical case studies nationwide, with 34 companies and 30 products/technologies proposed for inclusion in the "National Typical Cases of Electricity Demand-Side Management in the Industrial Sector (2025)" list [1][4]. Summary by Sections Case Collection and Evaluation - The MIIT has initiated a nationwide collection of typical cases for electricity demand-side management in the industrial sector, involving preliminary reviews by local authorities and expert evaluations by the China Electricity Council [4]. Proposed Companies and Technologies - A total of 34 companies and 30 products/technologies are proposed for inclusion in the 2025 list, showcasing various management and technical measures aimed at improving energy efficiency and reducing electricity consumption [4][5]. Implementation Results - Companies like Hebei Changan Automobile reported direct electricity savings of 13.45 million yuan in 2024 through various energy efficiency measures, including upgrading distribution networks and promoting the use of electric vehicles [6]. - Jilin Linglong Tire achieved a direct electricity savings of 9.31 million kWh in 2024 by improving power factor and utilizing distributed solar power [6]. - Budweiser (Jiamusi) implemented a series of energy optimization measures, resulting in a reduction of 491,900 kWh in electricity consumption in 2024 compared to 2023, alongside a 15% increase in production efficiency [7]. Management and Technical Measures - Companies are establishing dedicated energy management teams and systems to oversee electricity demand-side management, with many implementing advanced technologies such as smart energy management platforms and distributed energy systems [8][9]. - The use of renewable energy sources, such as solar power, is being emphasized, with companies like Jiangdong Hengkang New Materials planning significant solar and energy storage projects to enhance green development [8]. Public Participation and Feedback - The MIIT has opened a public consultation period for stakeholders to provide feedback on the proposed list of companies and technologies, encouraging transparency and community involvement in the electricity demand-side management initiative [4].

宏观日报 | 2025-11-18 中游开工延续分化 中观事件总览 生产行业： 1）1-10月装备制造业增加值同比增长9.5%，贡献率超过一半，成为拉动工业增长的主引擎。在能源与 关键原材料领域，煤炭等优质产能持续释放以保障能源供应；但另一方面，受全球AI热潮影响，芯片出现供应短 缺和大幅涨价，部分价格较9月上涨高达60%，这为下游相关制造业带来了成本压力。 服务行业： 1）国家外汇管理局公布2025年10月银行结售汇和银行代客涉外收付款数据，统计数据显示，2025年 10月，银行结汇15194亿元人民币，售汇13940亿元人民币。2025年1-10月，银行累计结汇147941亿元人民币，累计 售汇142201亿元人民币。（2）财政部发布2025年1—10月财政收支情况。1—10月，全国一般公共预算收入186490 亿元，同比增长0.8%；全国一般公共预算支出225825亿元，同比增长2%。全国政府性基金预算收入34473亿元， 同比下降2.8%；全国政府性基金预算支出80892亿元，同比增长15.4%。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）有色：镍价格回落，铝价格小幅回升。2）黑色：玻 ...

一位参与PMI调查的化工行业受访者表示："对于关税政策如何影响业务，我们的态度已从'期待'转 为'担忧'。多数部门订单量下降，我们已下调2025年财务预期。"另有化工企业补充道："当前业务依旧 艰难。受全球经济环境不确定性及关税政策频繁变动影响，客户不断取消或减少订单。" 美国供应管理协会PMI商业调查委员会主席苏珊·斯彭斯指出，8月新订单增长与9月产量改善带来的短 期利好似乎并未转化为制造业的持续增长。斯彭斯表示："四大需求指标(新订单、新出口订单、未完成 订单、客户库存指数)均有所改善，但仍处于收缩区间，其中客户库存指数收缩速度放缓。" 中化新网讯 近日，ICIS发布最新报告显示，10月美国化学品产量出现下降，受制造业整体低迷影响， 企业对关税的担忧日益加剧，纷纷反馈相关疑虑。 美国供应管理协会(ISM)发布的最新采购经理人指数(PMI)显示，10月美国制造业产量较9月进一步恶 化，PMI降至48.7点，陷入更深的收缩区间。ISM指出，尽管10月化学品产量下滑，但化工产品销售价 格有所上涨。与此同时，塑料与橡胶行业产量从9月的收缩状态回升，实现扩张。 ...

证券代码：002408 证券简称：齐翔腾达 淄博齐翔腾达化工股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：20251117 投资者关系活动 类别 ☑ 特定对象调研 □ 分析师会议 □ 媒体采访 □ 业绩说明会 □ 新闻发布会 □ 路演活动 □ 现场参观 □ 电话会议 □ 其他 参与单位名称及 人员姓名 申万宏源 刘子栋 城通基金 贾宗霖 国泰海通 周志鹏 时间 2025 年 11 月 17 日 地点 公司会议室 上市公司接待人 员姓名 董事会秘书 姜能成 证券事务代表 车俊侠 投资者关系活动 主要内容介绍 一、公司董事会秘书姜能成先生就公司生产经营情况进行 介绍。 二、调研的主要问题： 1、2025 年前三季度公司业绩相对低迷，公司认为何时能迎 来转机？ 回复：公司今年的业绩整体呈现出前高后低的走势。上半年， 公司整体维持盈利状态；但第三季度出现了较大幅度的亏损，这 主要归因于第三季度主要化工产品价格持续下滑以及供需错配 的双重影响。目前，随着国家反内卷政策的逐步实施，新增和扩 建产能已逐渐得到控制，从上市公司披露的三季度在建工程数据 可以明显看出，多数上市公司的资本支出是减少的。随着市场对 新增产能的逐步消化，行 ...

11月17日，孚日股份在集合竞价阶段即封住涨停，该股已连续拉出8个涨停板，股价飙升至12.72元/股的历史新高，总市值突破120亿元，近一个月累计涨 幅高达106.43%。 值得注意的是，网传截图中后半段关于风险的表述，与公司真实公告的原文也并不一致，甚至有添油加醋的嫌疑。真实公告的原文为"可能存在非理性炒 作"和"存在短期下跌的风险"；而网传截图则将其篡改为"资本存在恶意炒作情况"和"散户存在短期下跌的风险"，用词更为严厉，指向也更明确。 就在市场亢奋之际，一张"7连板孚日股份：目前没有俘虏日军计划"的截图在刚刚过去的周末迅速发酵。 记者查证：官方渠道查无此文 网传截图 这张在网上流传的截图中，孚日股份于"11月16日电"发布公告称，"公司目前没有俘虏日军计划"，并罕见提示"资本存在恶意炒作情况"及"散户存在短期 下跌的风险"。 但记者通过所有法定信息披露渠道，均未查到孚日股份发布过上述内容的公告。 记者发现，网传截图日期"11月16日电"，与孚日股份当晚真实发布的《关于公司股价异常波动的公告》(临2025-065.落款11月17日)时间相近。 在这份真实公告中，与网传截图对应的原文是："孚日新能源目前暂无 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended to sell call options [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for short - term range trading; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips; Nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][10][11][18]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; Soda ash 01 contract short - sellers are advised to exit and wait [1][20][22][25][31]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is in low - level oscillation; Apples are expected to be slightly bullish; Jujubes are expected to be slightly bearish [1][34][35]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs' price rebounds are under pressure; Eggs' price increases are limited; Corn is in the process of bottom - building; Soybean meal is for range trading; Oils' price rebounds are limited [1][38][40][42]. Core Views - A - share market has hot - spot rotation, and the main line is unclear. Index futures may trade sideways. For Treasury bonds, the possibility of using aggregate monetary policy tools this year is relatively limited, and the market is in a range - trading pattern [5]. - In the black building materials market, the coal market is weak, and steel prices may trade at low levels. Glass demand is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions [7][8]. - Non - ferrous metals are affected by macro and fundamental factors. Copper is in high - level oscillation, aluminum is in high - level trading with uncertainty, nickel has an oversupply situation in the medium - long term, and tin and precious metals are in range trading [11][12][17][18]. - Energy chemicals generally face supply - demand imbalances, with most products expected to trade sideways or weakly. Soda ash may have limited downside space [20][22][25][33]. - In the cotton textile industry chain, cotton and cotton yarn are under pressure due to loose supply - demand, PTA is in low - level oscillation, apples may be strong due to reduced production and quality, and jujubes' prices are weakening [34][35][37]. - In the agricultural and livestock market, pigs' supply is large in the short - to - medium term, egg supply is sufficient, corn is in the bottom - building process, soybean meal is in range trading, and oils' price rebounds are limited [38][40][42][46][53]. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: A - share market has个股涨跌互现, with hot - spot rotation. 1 - 10 national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 2%. Index futures may trade sideways in the short term and are long - term bullish [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The third - quarter monetary policy report maintains a prudent and loose tone. The possibility of using aggregate monetary policy tools this year is limited, and the market is in a range - trading pattern, waiting for policy signals from the December Central Economic Work Conference [5][6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is in a downward trend, with weak demand and widespread price cuts. Market participants are waiting and seeing [7]. - **Rebar**: Futures prices are below cost, with low static valuation. Macro利好 has been realized, and demand may decline. Steel mills may increase production cuts. Short - term steel prices are expected to trade at low levels, with the 01 contract focusing on the range of 3000 - 3100 [7][8]. - **Glass**: The main contract's open interest hits a new high. Supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 01 contract and sell call options [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is in high - level oscillation, affected by US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and economic data in China. Fundamentally, raw material supply is tight, and consumption is average. Long - term demand is optimistic, but short - term risks exist. The main contract may trade in the range of 85000 - 88000 [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: Bauxite prices are stable, and alumina production capacity has decreased slightly. Aluminum production capacity is basically stable, and demand is affected by the off - season. Inventory has increased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy brings uncertainty. Nickel supply is expected to be loose in the medium - long term, with an oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [17]. - **Tin**: Domestic production has increased, and imports have decreased. The semiconductor industry is recovering, and inventory is at a medium level. Supply is expected to improve, and demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading [18]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by US government policies and Fed policy expectations, prices are in range trading. There is support from interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand [18][19]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Cost is under pressure, supply is high, demand is weak, and exports may slow down. It is expected to trade weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4700 pressure level [20][21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, the price is under pressure. It is expected to trade weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2400 pressure level [22][23]. - **Styrene**: Cost and supply - demand factors lead to a weak outlook. It is expected to trade weakly, focusing on the 6500 pressure level [23][25]. - **Rubber**: Raw material prices are high, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak. It is expected to trade in a range, focusing on the 15000 support level [25][26]. - **Urea**: Supply has increased, demand is diversified, and inventory is high. It is expected to trade in a wide range [27][28]. - **Methanol**: Supply has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has accumulated. It is expected to trade weakly. Key factors to watch include macro changes, device maintenance, and coal prices [28]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and costs are under pressure. PE is expected to trade in a range, focusing on the 6800 support level; PP is expected to trade weakly, focusing on the 6500 support level [29]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to contract, and demand is stable. The 01 contract short - sellers are advised to exit and wait [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global supply - demand is loose, and downstream consumption is weak. Prices are under pressure [34]. - **PTA**: Oil prices are weak, supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and prices are in low - level oscillation, focusing on the 4400 - 4700 range [34][35]. - **Apples**: Production and quality have decreased, and prices may remain strong [35]. - **Jujubes**: Acquisition prices are falling, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to decline [37]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: Short - term prices are in a narrow range, and medium - long - term supply is large. It is recommended to hold short positions in 01, 03, and 05 contracts and pay attention to the 05 - 03 spread arbitrage [38][39][40]. - **Eggs**: Supply is sufficient, and price increases are limited. The 12 - contract is recommended to short on rallies, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in a range [40][41]. - **Corn**: Short - term prices are supported by reduced supply, and medium - long - term supply - demand is relatively loose. The 01 contract is recommended to short on rallies, and attention should be paid to the 3 - 5 spread arbitrage [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is in a wide - range oscillation. Domestic supply may improve in December. The M2601 contract is for range trading, and spot enterprises can fix prices at low points [46][47]. - **Oils**: Short - term price rebounds are limited, and it is recommended not to chase the rise but to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to the rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread and palm oil 1 - 5 spread arbitrage [47][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies suggest constructing option combination strategies mainly as sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil SC2601 is 462, with a price increase of 1 and a price change rate of 0.24% [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The report provides the volume and open interest PCR data of various energy - chemical options, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and whether the underlying market has a turning point. For example, the open interest PCR of crude oil options is 0.80, indicating a relatively weak recent crude oil market [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the exercise prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the report determines the pressure and support levels of various energy - chemical option underlying assets. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 540 and the support level is 460 [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The report shows the implied volatility data of various energy - chemical options, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 24.12%, and the weighted implied volatility is 26.46% with a change of - 0.17% [6] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: - **Fundamentals**: US crude oil inventories showed different trends, with an overall increase in total, strategic, and commercial inventories, and a decrease in Cushing area inventories. - **Market Analysis**: The price showed a complex trend of rise and fall from August to November. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated above the average, open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a weak market, and the pressure and support levels were 540 and 460 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **LPG**: - **Fundamentals**: The LPG market was relatively strong, with a rebound in the external market and a marginal tightening of the domestic fundamental situation. - **Market Analysis**: The price showed a trend of decline, rebound, and then consolidation from August to November. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility dropped significantly to below the average, open interest PCR was around 0.80, indicating a weak market, and the pressure and support levels were 4500 and 4250 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: - **Fundamentals**: Supply was expected to increase, and inventory might accumulate slightly. - **Market Analysis**: The price showed a weak downward trend from August to November. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated around the historical average, open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a weak and volatile market, and the pressure and support levels were 2500 and 2000 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bear spread strategy for direction, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Ethylene Glycol**: - **Fundamentals**: Production increased slightly, and port inventory increased significantly. - **Market Analysis**: The price showed a weak downward trend from August to November. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated below the average, open interest PCR was around 0.70, indicating strong short - side power, and the pressure and support levels were 4500 and 4050 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bear spread strategy for direction, a short - volatility strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: - **Fundamentals**: Production increased, and capacity utilization rose. - **Market Analysis**: The price showed a weak downward trend from August to November. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility dropped to around the average, open interest PCR was around 0.70, indicating a weak market, and the pressure and support levels were 7000 and 6300 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bear spread strategy for direction, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: - **Fundamentals**: Tire production capacity utilization showed different trends, and inventory turnover days changed. - **Market Analysis**: The price showed a weak consolidation trend from August to November. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility rose sharply and then dropped to below the average, open interest PCR was below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels were 16000 and 15000 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility [11] 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: - **Fundamentals**: Some PTA plants had production adjustments, and the operating rate changed. - **Market Analysis**: The price showed a trend of decline, rebound, and then consolidation from August to November. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated above the average, open interest PCR was around 0.70, indicating a volatile market, and the pressure and support levels were 4700 and 4300 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility [11] 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: - **Fundamentals**: The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda plants decreased slightly, with different trends in different regions. - **Market Analysis**: The price showed a weak downward trend from August to November. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility was at a relatively high level, open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a weak and volatile market, and the pressure and support levels were 3000 and 2200 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bear spread strategy for direction, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12] - **Soda Ash**: - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased year - on - year. - **Market Analysis**: The price showed a weak consolidation trend from August to November. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility was at a relatively high historical level, open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong short - side pressure, and the pressure and support levels were 1860 and 1100 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a bear spread strategy for direction, a short - volatility combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12] 3.5.7 Other Options - **Urea**: - **Fundamentals**: Enterprise inventory decreased, and port inventory increased. - **Market Analysis**: The price showed a trend of wide - range fluctuation, decline, and then rebound from August to November. - **Option Factors**: Implied volatility fluctuated slightly around the historical average, open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong short - side pressure, and the pressure and support levels were 1800 and 1600 respectively. - **Strategies**: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]

一、全市场概况 截至上周末，全市场权益类ETF总规模48557.73亿元，过去一周场内总规模减少44.35亿元，总份额增加226.30亿份，资金净流入283.21亿元。 从大类来看，行业&主题板块ETF净流入居前，达+185.41亿元，主要人工智能板块的流入；四个大类板块本周均表现为资金净流入。 二、资金加减仓方向 具体到细分板块，宽基&策略板块ETF中，净流入前三大板块依次为：科创50、策略-红利、自由现金流；净流出前三大板块依次为：上证50、沪深300、中 证A500。 | | | 当周净流入前三及后三的宽基&策略板块 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | | 本周流入资金 本周规模变动 | 本年流入资金 本年规模变动 | | 基金规模 | | 科创20 | 35.32 | -32.90 | -701.93 | -116.75 | 1.731.94 | | 策略-红利 | 33.98 | 50.32 | 364.60 | 496.68 | 1,637.15 | | 自由现金流 | 10.38 | 12.62 | 16.69 | 46.73 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-11-18 地缘动荡⽀撑油价，甲醇和⼄⼆醇累库 速度超预期 俄罗斯一关键港口恢复运营的迹象，与影响油价的广泛地缘政治风险 相互作用，原油价格延续震荡整理。上周五，因俄罗斯新罗西斯克港设施 遇袭，曾促使原油价格上涨超2%。11月16日已有两艘油轮停靠该港口，这 表明港口运营活动已逐步恢复。交易商同时也在密切关注特朗普政府针对 委内瑞拉的相关计划，特朗普周日表示，不排除与委内瑞拉政府展开谈判 的可能性。随着针对俄罗斯两大主要石油生产商的新一轮制裁即将生效， 近日俄罗斯石油的交易价格已大幅折价。据Argus的数据显示，目前其油 价处于两年半以来的最低水平。 板块逻辑： 原油：过剩预期强化，地缘扰动仍存 沥青：美委局势降温，沥青期价弱势震荡 高硫燃油：燃油期价弱势震荡 低硫燃油：低硫燃油弱势震荡 甲醇：高库存现实压制，海外扰动尚不显著，甲醇震荡偏弱 尿素：下游逢低跟进，期价震荡看待 乙二醇：装置扰动增多，新装置投产逐步兑现 PX：二甲苯货源充足，短期内调油对其分化有限，PX负荷持稳 PTA：情绪发酵告一段落，关注装置变化节奏 短 ...