Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Cautiously long [1] - Silver: Stabilize and test long [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Resistance on rallies [1] - Tin: Resistance on rallies [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Cautiously long [1] 2. Core Views - The weak US data has increased the expectation of interest rate cuts and the risk of stagflation, leading to an inflow of safe - haven funds and a significant increase in gold prices. The long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged in the long term [3][4]. - For copper, short - term supply - demand contradictions are due to seasonal factors and inventory pressure, while long - term contradictions lie in demand uncertainty and potential demand growth. After the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, the dollar index weakened, and copper prices rebounded [8][9]. - Zinc supply is abundant, and demand is weak during the off - season. It is recommended to hold short positions and seize opportunities to short on rallies [10][12]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to downstream weakness and inventory accumulation [13][15]. - Nickel prices face pressure due to weak supply - demand and inventory accumulation, and stainless steel also faces over - supply in the off - season [17][19]. - Lithium carbonate inventory has decreased, and with potential supply risks and improved demand, it is recommended to go long on dips [21][23]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Weak US data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the risk of stagflation reappeared. Safe - haven funds flowed in, causing a significant increase in gold prices [3]. - **Basic Logic**: US data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts; "reciprocal tariffs" are about to take effect; global gold demand is growing strongly. The long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged in the long term [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around 770 for gold in the short term. For silver, it has fallen back to the previous range, and it is recommended to enter long positions after stabilization [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and fluctuated narrowly [8]. - **Industry Logic**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are related to seasonal factors and inventory pressure. Medium - term contradictions are the coexistence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. Long - term contradictions are between demand uncertainty and potential demand growth [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, the dollar index weakened, and copper prices rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term and be bullish on copper in the long term. Pay attention to the price range of Shanghai copper [77500, 79500] and LME copper [9650, 9850] [9]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuated weakly [11]. - **Industry Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant, processing fees are rising, and demand is weak during the off - season [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold previous short positions and take partial profits. Seize opportunities to short on rallies in the long term. Pay attention to the price range of Shanghai zinc [21800, 22600] and LME zinc [2650, 2850] [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina also showed a downward trend [14]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, costs have decreased, inventory has increased, and downstream demand is weak. For alumina, supply is abundant, and inventory is accumulating [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20000 - 20700] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then fell [18]. - **Industry Logic**: Nickel supply - demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Stainless steel has over - supply issues in the off - season [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel and pay attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118000 - 121000] [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduced positions for five consecutive days, with a significant decline in trading volume and a gain of over 1% [22]. - **Industry Logic**: The inventory has stopped increasing, and the supply - demand situation may improve. The compliance risk of mining licenses is a key factor [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are still expectations of supply speculation. It is recommended to go long on dips in the range of [68000 - 71500] [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For nickel, the multi - empty game intensifies, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly at a low level. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the disk margin follows macro - sentiment changes [4]. - For stainless steel, as the macro influence fades and it returns to the fundamentals, steel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Although there are some positive factors, high inventory and high supply elasticity may drag down steel prices [5]. - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to pay attention to the resumption progress of upstream factories. The market is affected by upstream resumption expectations, and the price shows a weak trend [27]. - For polysilicon, there may be a short - term correction, and it is recommended to hold positions cautiously. The market is policy - driven, and prices may return to the fundamentals in the short term [27]. - For lithium carbonate, the "sports - style anti - involution" cools down, and it is necessary to focus on the progress of mineral license approvals in Jiangxi. The price has dropped significantly, and the unilateral price will fluctuate widely before the event is clearly defined [61]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel 3.1.1 Fundamentals - **Nickel**: The influence of macro - sentiment on the fundamentals is marginal, and the fundamentals determine the elasticity. After the contradiction in the ore end fades, the smelting end logic leads to a narrow - range shock judgment. The global refined nickel inventory is increasing, and the low - cost supply increment in the long - term drags down the disk. Although the inventory of the ferronickel link has decreased, the boost to nickel prices is limited [4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro influence fades, and it returns to the fundamentals. In August, the production schedule has increased slightly, but the inventory is still high, and the high inventory and high supply elasticity may drag down steel prices. However, the weak upstream profit provides some cost support [5]. 3.1.2 Inventory Changes - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons. The nickel - iron inventory decreased by 10% month - on - month but increased by 56% year - on - year [6][7][8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The national stainless steel social total inventory decreased by 0.66% week - on - week. The raw material nickel - iron inventory decreased by 10% month - on - month but was still 56% higher year - on - year [5][8]. 3.1.3 Market News - There are multiple events such as Canada's potential suspension of nickel exports to the US, the trial production of an Indonesian nickel - iron project, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, and Indonesia's plan to shorten the mining quota period [9]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 3.2.1 Price Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures market showed a weak shock, and the spot price declined. The SMM - reported Xinjiang 99 - silicon price was 9,050 yuan/ton (down 450 yuan week - on - week), and the Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon price was 9,350 yuan/ton (down 400 yuan week - on - week) [27]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures market rose first and then fell. The spot market had weak transactions, and the Friday closing price was 49,200 yuan/ton [27]. 3.2.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply side saw a marginal increase in weekly production. Sichuan's production increased, while Xinjiang's decreased. The overall industry inventory decreased again. The demand side had stable short - term demand from downstream polysilicon and silicone [28][29]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term weekly production continued to increase. The upstream inventory decreased, and there was speculative replenishment demand from the downstream. The demand side saw a slight increase in silicon wafer production, but the price transmission was not smooth [29][31]. 3.2.3后市 Views - **Industrial Silicon**: It is recommended to go short on rallies. The expected price range next week is 8,200 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the resumption progress of upstream factories [32][33]. - **Polysilicon**: There may be a short - term correction. The expected price range next week is 46,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. It is a policy - driven market, and it is recommended to be cautious when holding positions [32][33]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate 3.3.1 Price Trends - The futures contract prices of lithium carbonate decreased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 68,920 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11,600 yuan/ton; the 2511 contract closed at 69,240 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9,920 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased by 1,550 yuan/ton to 71,350 yuan/ton [61]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand Fundamentals - **Supply**: The price of lithium concentrate decreased from 810 US dollars/ton to 755 US dollars/ton, and the hedging profit of purchased - ore decreased significantly. The weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased by 1,362 tons to 17,268 tons, a decrease of 7.31% [62]. - **Demand**: Due to the significant strengthening of the basis and end - of - month purchases, the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises increased significantly. The sales volume of new - energy passenger cars increased by 10.28% week - on - week and year - on - year [62]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased. The upstream inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory increased. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,757 tons to 11,996 tons [63]. 3.3.3后市 Views - It is recommended to hold positions cautiously. The expected operating range of the futures main - contract price is 55,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton. It is not recommended to conduct arbitrage or hedging. The unilateral price will fluctuate widely before the event is clearly defined [64][65][66].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Volatility [6] - Polysilicon: Volatility [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti-involution" sentiment has declined, but polysilicon still has policy support. The industrial silicon market may see marginal improvement, and it's difficult to reach previous low prices. The polysilicon spot price increase provides a lower limit for the futures market, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2509 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 1,225 yuan/ton to 8,500 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price of SMM's East China oxygenated 553 decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 9,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 9,000 yuan/ton. The PS2509 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1,825 yuan/ton to 49,200 yuan/ton. The transaction price of N-type reclaimed feedstock increased by 300 yuan/ton to 47,100 yuan/ton [10] 2. "Anti-involution" Sentiment Declines, Polysilicon Still Has Policy Support - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main industrial silicon futures contract dropped significantly this week. The weekly output was 78,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.59%. The social inventory increased by 5,000 tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 6,000 tons. Xinjiang's large factories have unstable operations, and production is expected to increase slightly. Sichuan and Yunnan's silicon factories are also expected to have a small increase. The 7 - month industrial silicon balance sheet is estimated to have a de - stocking of about 30,000 tons, and it may still de - stock in August [12] - **Organosilicon**: The price of organosilicon fluctuated this week. The overall enterprise operating rate was 72.26%, the weekly output was 47,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.82%, and the inventory was 46,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.41%. The price is expected to fluctuate [12][13] - **Polysilicon**: The main polysilicon futures contract first rose and then fell this week. The average spot transaction price increased. The main prices of silicon materials this week were 42 - 47 yuan/kg for dense materials, 45 - 50 yuan/kg for dense reclaimed materials, and 43 - 46 yuan/kg for granular silicon. As of July 31, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 229,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons month - on - month. The production in August is expected to reach 125,000 - 130,000 tons, resulting in a monthly surplus of 20,000 - 30,000 tons [14] - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of silicon wafers increased as expected this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers were 1.20/1.35/1.55 yuan/piece, with an average increase of 0.1 yuan/piece. The price is expected to increase slightly [15] - **Battery Cells**: The price of battery cells increased as expected this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 battery cells were 0.29/0.285/0.285 yuan/watt, with increases of 0.02/0.015/0.015 yuan/watt respectively. The price should continue to rise, but the acceptance of the component end needs to be considered [16] - **Components**: The price of components fluctuated this week. The price of centralized components was stable, and the price of distributed components increased but with low trading volume. The component production in August is not expected to decrease significantly. The short - term component price is expected to fluctuate [17] 3. Investment Advice - **Industrial Silicon**: The "anti - involution" trading declined rapidly, and the industrial silicon futures price fell. In the short term, the decline sentiment has not been fully released, but the fundamentals have improved marginally. There may be a second "anti - involution" trading. Short positions can consider gradually taking profits, and then consider long positions after the macro - sentiment stabilizes. The risk lies in the resumption of production of large factories [19] - **Polysilicon**: The increase in the average spot transaction price provides a lower limit for the futures price. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term. The overall strategy is to be bullish on dips, and one can consider selling out - of - the - money put options [20] 4. Hot News Sorting - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added three polysilicon futures designated quality - inspection institutions on August 1. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits of some contracts of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures on August 1 [21] 5. Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon**: Includes data on spot prices, weekly production, and inventory of industrial silicon in China [22] - **Organosilicon**: Covers data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventory, and weekly production [31] - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on polysilicon spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [36] - **Silicon Wafers**: Contains data on silicon wafer spot prices, average net profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [40] - **Battery Cells**: Includes data on battery cell spot prices, average net profits, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production [45] - **Components**: Covers data on component spot prices, average net profits, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly production [53]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market's bullish sentiment has receded, but there is strong support below the 70,000 yuan mark. Downstream demand remains cautious, and there are concerns about weakening long - term demand. However, short - term inventory reduction and demand - side restocking may support prices [4][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Affected by the Politburo meeting and exchange announcements, the market is driven by news. With the recovery of production and uncertain inventory trends, the market may fluctuate, and the policy support effect is yet to be verified [6][7]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term speculative sentiment is high, and the market is driven by news. There is a possibility of price regression to fundamentals, and short - term price correction risks should be watched out for [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Spot Prices 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium 09 | News - driven market | 65,000 - 66,000 | 78,000 - 83,000 | Oscillate strongly | Seize selling hedging opportunities, downstream cathode material enterprises focus on low - level stocking or buying hedging [15] | | Industrial Silicon 09 | News - driven market | 8,500 - 8,600 | 9,900 - 10,000 | Bidirectional fluctuation | Consider selling put/call options at low/high levels [15] | | Polysilicon 09 | News - driven market | 45,000 - 46,000 | 55,000 - 56,000 | Bidirectional fluctuation | Consider selling put/call options at low/high levels [15] | 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 68,280 | - 3.29% | 521,849 | 229,368 | - 43,385 | 5,545 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,760 | - 5.65% | 410,371 | 212,932 | - 29,745 | 50,644 | | Polysilicon | 49,130 | - 7.81% | 565,838 | 126,989 | - 37,501 | 3,200 [16] | 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: This week, the production of carbonate lithium was 17,268 tons, a decrease of 1,362 tons from the previous week. The total sample inventory decreased by 1,444 tons to 141,726 tons, the first decrease after eight consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation [4]. - **Downstream**: Downstream inquiry activity has increased, but actual transactions have not increased proportionally. Downstream buyers are still cautious, mainly making purchases for rigid demand [4]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: The resumption of production by manufacturers is accelerating, and production is expected to continue to rise. Short - term inventory has decreased due to improved transactions, but future inventory trends depend on transaction volume and production reduction implementation [6]. - **Downstream**: Not specifically mentioned in detail in the report. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory**: Terminal demand is weak, and enterprise inventories are at a high level, which will form selling hedging pressure on the market. The full - cost "policy red line" provides strong support [8][9]. - **Downstream**: Not specifically mentioned in detail in the report.

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-01 反内卷情绪降温，工业硅多晶硅盘面回落 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-07-31，工业硅期货价格大幅回落，主力合约2509开于9090元/吨，最后收于8760元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-585） 元/吨，变化（-6.26）%。截止收盘，2509主力合约持仓212932手，2025-07-31仓单总数为50644手，较前一日变化 798手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格下跌。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9700-9900（-200）元/吨；421#硅在9900-10400 （-100）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格9100-9200（-200）元/吨，99硅价格在9000-9200（-200）元/吨。 根据SMM市场交流，2025年7月份工业硅产量在33.83万吨环比增加3.2%同比减少30.6%。2025年1-7月份工业硅累 计产量在221.12万吨，同比下降20.0%。 SMM统计7月31日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54万吨，较上周环比增加0.5万吨。其中社会普通仓库11.9万吨，较 上周减少0.1万吨，社会交割仓库42.1万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较上 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The A-share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. Short-term risk of a pullback after a sharp rise should be vigilant, while the entry of insurance funds in the medium to long term is expected to enhance market stability. [2] - The WTI crude oil main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound, with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. The overall medium to long-term price center of crude oil is moving down. [3] - Gold prices have dropped to a three - week low. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce, and the potential boost to risk aversion sentiment from core PCE data and Sino - US trade negotiations should be monitored. [4][5] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level for silver, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] - Most chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, PVC, PP, plastic, etc. are expected to have short - term volatile operations, with attention to relevant influencing factors such as cost, policy, and market sentiment. [7][8][10][11] - For agricultural products, corn, peanut, and cotton futures prices are expected to be weak in the short term, while egg prices have limited downward space, and soybean meal may have a wide - range shock, and soybean oil may be strong in the short term. [18][19][20][21][25][26] - For metals, most metal products such as copper, aluminum, etc. have complex market situations, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different varieties. [27][28] - For black commodities, stainless steel may have a short - term correction, while hot - rolled coils, rebar, and iron ore may have short - term volatile operations, and coking coal and coke may be strong in the short term. [33][34][35][37][39] Summary by Directory Macro - The Politburo meeting released multiple signals, including activating the capital market, expanding domestic demand, and supporting innovation. The long - cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds has been implemented, and the proportion of equity investment is expected to increase. The lithium - battery industry's "anti - involution" policy is deepening. [2] - The A - share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. [2] Crude Oil - Summer demand supports oil prices, but OPEC's production increase plan, Fed meetings, and trade negotiations bring instability. The WTI main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. [3] - The IEA has raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.1 million barrels per day, and OPEC + may increase production in July and August, leading to a relatively weak oil price in the medium to long term. [3] Gold - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the probability of a September rate cut, pushing up the dollar index and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. [4] - Gold prices dropped to a three - week low, but institutional willingness to buy on dips still exists. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce and relevant influencing factors. [4][5] Silver - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, suppressing the attractiveness of silver as a non - income asset. Trump's tariff on semi - finished copper indirectly dragged down silver. [6] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] Chemical - **PTA**: The spot price decreased, the processing fee was at a low level, the overall supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation. [7] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply became more relaxed, the inventory was at a low level, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation, with attention to macro - policies. [8] - **PVC**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand improved slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve significantly, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [10] - **PP**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [11] - **Plastic**: The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply decreased, the demand increased, the inventory decreased, the fundamentals had limited driving force, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [13] - **Glass**: The supply fluctuated slightly, the demand weakened, the inventory decreased, the supply - demand change was limited, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [14] - **Methanol**: The supply increased, the demand had contradictions, the inventory increased, the cost had support but the profit was difficult to sustain, and the futures price was expected to be weak in the short term. [17] Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The global and US yields are at high levels, but the ending inventory has decreased. The domestic market is in a state of alternating old and new grains, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term. [18][19] - **Peanut**: The estimated planting area is expected to increase. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [20] - **Cotton**: The global and US cotton production and ending inventory are expected to increase. The domestic supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to be weak in the short term. [21] - **Pig**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may oscillate in the short term. [22] - **Egg**: The production capacity is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the futures price has limited downward space. [24] - **Soybean Meal**: The international price is driven by tariffs and weather. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price may have a wide - range shock in the short term. [25] - **Soybean Oil**: The international market focuses on weather. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the futures price may be strong in the short term. [26] Metals - **Copper**: The US copper tariff event led to a decline in US copper prices. The domestic support policies are strong, and the copper market has complex game situations. [27] - **Aluminum**: The Fed maintained interest rates, the supply is close to the ceiling, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may be weak in the short term. [28] - **Alumina**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait for macro - guidance. [29] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost provides support, the supply is excessive, the demand is in the off - season, and it is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate. [30] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the price fluctuates greatly due to market sentiment. [31] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is expected to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [32] - **Polysilicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [33] Black - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support is weakening, the supply may decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and it may have a short - term correction. [34] - **Rebar**: The "anti - involution" policy is being implemented, the cost support is weakening, the demand has a slight recovery, and it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [35] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Similar to rebar, it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [36] - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, the demand is supported, the inventory is at a low level, and it may oscillate in the short term. [37][38] - **Coal**: Coking coal supply may shrink, and coke prices may be strong due to cost and demand, but relevant risks need to be monitored. [39]

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is the Industrial Silicon August Monthly Report, dated July 31, 2025, and is a research report on the non - ferrous sector [14][25][34] Group 2: Price Data Industrial Silicon Spot Prices - As of July 29, 2025, the East China oxygen - blowing 553 spot price was 9,800 yuan/ton, down 2.97% from the previous weekend and up 15.98% from the end of last month; the Kunming oxygen - blowing 553 spot price was 9,800 yuan/ton, down 2.00% from the previous weekend and up 15.29% from the end of last month; the Tianjin oxygen - blowing 553 spot price was 9,650 yuan/ton, down 3.02% from the previous weekend and up 15.57% from the end of last month; the East China 421 spot price was 10,150 yuan/ton, down 1.93% from the previous weekend and up 15.34% from the end of last month; the Kunming 421 spot price was 10,200 yuan/ton, down 0.97% from the previous weekend and up 3.03% from the end of last month; the Tianjin 421 spot price was 10,100 yuan/ton, down 1.46% from the previous weekend and up 14.12% from the end of last month [14] Other Important Spot Prices - The Tianjin 99 - silicon price was 9,600 yuan/ton, down 3.03% from the previous weekend and up 16.36% from the end of last month; the Xinjiang 99 - silicon price was 9,100 yuan/ton, down 3.70% from the previous weekend and up 15.19% from the end of last month [14] Downstream Product Prices - The price of polycrystalline silicon N - type dense material was 45.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous weekend and up 35.82% from the end of last month; the DMC price was 12,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous weekend and up 19.14% from the end of last month; the aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,100 yuan/ton, down 0.50% from the previous weekend and unchanged from the end of last month [14] Warehouse Receipt Data - The registered warehouse receipt volume was 49,846 sheets, up 0.27% from the previous weekend and down 5.01% from the end of last month [14] Group 3: Supply and Demand Data 2025 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2025, the supply and demand of industrial silicon showed fluctuations. For example, in January, the supply was 35.52 tons, and the consumption was 35.52 tons, with a balance of 0.00 tons; in February, the supply was 32.69 tons, the consumption was 32.78 tons, with a balance of - 0.09 tons; in July, the supply was 37.65 tons, the consumption was 37.61 tons, with a balance of 0.04 tons [15] July Regional Production - In July 2025, Xinjiang's production was 154,300 tons, accounting for 45.01% of the total, with a year - to - date cumulative production of 1,199,480 tons; Yunnan's production was 40,150 tons, accounting for 11.71%, with a year - to - date cumulative production of 117,730 tons; Sichuan's production was 50,760 tons, accounting for 14.81%, with a year - to - date cumulative production of 141,790 tons; Inner Mongolia's production was 43,700 tons, accounting for 12.75%, with a year - to - date cumulative production of 296,760 tons [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, recent price fluctuations are due to rising raw material coal prices and changes in supply - demand. The market is expected to remain volatile with a neutral stance on the single - side strategy [1][2][3]. - For polysilicon, the futures market is affected by the anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry, with a certain deviation from the spot fundamentals. There is a risk of chasing high prices, and the recommended strategy is to sell - hedge at high prices and buy put options [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 30, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose. The main contract 2509 opened at 9500 yuan/ton and closed at 9285 yuan/ton, a change of 200 yuan/ton (2.20%) from the previous settlement. The closing position of the 2509 main contract was 242,677 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 49,846 lots, a change of - 236 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices increased. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9900 - 10100 (200) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 10100 - 10400 (100) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in multiple regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and Xinjiang also rose, while the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1]. - Affected by the rising price of raw material coal, the cost of silicon coal was strongly supported, driving up the prices of silicon coal in many regions. For example, the price of non - caking silicon coal in Xinjiang increased by 50 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, it increased by 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 12100 - 12700 (- 50) yuan/ton. The supply in the silicone market was contracting, and manufacturers' willingness to maintain prices increased significantly [2]. - **Strategy** - The recent market fluctuations have increased, but the fundamentals have changed little. It is expected that the market will remain volatile. - Single - side: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 30, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures rose significantly, opening at 51,800 yuan/ton and closing at 54,705 yuan/ton, a change of 8.87% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 164,490 lots (140,638 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 565,243 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. N - type material was 44.00 - 49.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [4]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased, while silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 24.30, a month - on - month change of - 2.41%, and the silicon wafer inventory was 17.87GW, a month - on - month change of 11.55%. The weekly polysilicon output was 25,500.00 tons, a month - on - month change of 10.87%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.20GW, a month - on - month change of 0.90% [4]. - In terms of silicon wafers, domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.20 (0.05) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.55 (0.05) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.35 (0.05) yuan/piece [4]. - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (- 0.01) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (- 0.01) yuan/W [5]. - According to the data released by the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feeding materials this week was 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 47,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.64%. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 44,000 - 45,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 44,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.68% [6]. - From the perspective of supply and demand, the total polysilicon output in July is expected to be close to 110,000 tons, and there is still a large possibility of growth in August. In July, the start - up of silicon wafer factories was relatively weak. With the rise in silicon wafer prices, some enterprises had preliminary plans to start furnaces, and the implementation needs further observation. The supply - demand fundamentals were weak [6]. - According to the exchange announcement, non - futures company members or customers' single - day opening volume on the polysilicon futures PS2509 contract should not exceed 500 lots, and on the PS2510, PS2511, PS2512, and PS2601 contracts, it should not exceed 2,000 lots respectively [6]. - **Strategy** - Currently, the polysilicon futures market is mainly affected by the anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry, and there is a certain deviation from the spot fundamentals in the short term. The industry's acquisition and merger plan is still being promoted, and there is no clear conclusion yet. The futures are easily affected by news. From a valuation perspective, a price of 55,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton already gives the industry good profits, and the risk of chasing high prices is relatively large. The market fluctuations are large, and the futures position is large. After the exchange's position limit, the change in position can also easily cause market fluctuations. Investors need to pay attention to risk management. - Single - side: Sell - hedge at high prices; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: Buy put options [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities on July 31, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity's trend is affected by factors such as macro - economic policies, geopolitical events, and supply - demand relationships [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: FOMC's decline releases hawkish expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][5][10] - **Silver**: Experiences a high - level decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][5][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: The implementation of US copper import tariffs puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12][14] - **Zinc**: Shows a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][15][17] - **Lead**: An increase in inventory puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18][19] - **Tin**: Ranges within an interval, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][21][25] - **Aluminum**: Experiences a slight oscillation; Alumina's price weakens; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum's trend strength is 0, alumina's is - 1, and casting aluminum alloy's is 0 [2][27][29] - **Nickel**: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, and fundamentals limit the elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][34] - **Stainless Steel**: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][34] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Has a wide - range oscillation, and the mine - end disturbance has not materialized, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][35][37] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sentiment weakens, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38][40] Energy - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, shows a relatively strong oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][41] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The sentiment is realized, with a wide - range oscillation. Both have a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55] - **Power Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, and the price stabilizes with an oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][57][60] - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend continues, and it remains strong in the short - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's futures price shows a relatively strong oscillation, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rise [2][4][52] Chemicals - **PTA**: Supported by cost, with a positive spread in monthly contracts [2] - **MEG**: The unilateral trend remains weak, with a reverse spread in monthly contracts [2] - **Rubber**: Oscillates [2][32] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Weak in the short - term, but the downside space narrows [2][34] - **Asphalt**: Follows the strong upward trend of crude oil with small - step increases [2][36] - **LLDPE**: The trend still faces pressure [2][38] - **PP**: The spot price oscillates with light trading volume [2][39] - **Caustic Soda**: Attention should be paid to delivery pressure [2][40] - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates weakly [2][41] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet remains stable [2][43] - **Methanol**: Oscillates under pressure [2][44] - **Urea**: The pressure gradually increases [2][46] - **Styrene**: Profits are compressed [2][48] - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [4][49] - **PVC**: Weakly oscillates in the short - term [4][50] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Supported in the short - term by the positive sentiment of crude oil and macro - economy [4][59] - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillates at a high level, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade progress [4][59] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans close lower, limiting the rebound of domestic soybean meal [4][61] - **Soybean**: Oscillates weakly [4][61] - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [4][63] - **Sugar**: Oscillates within an interval [4][65] - **Cotton**: The sentiment cools down, and Zhengzhou cotton futures decline [4][66] - **Eggs**: The spot price weakens [4][68] - **Hogs**: Attention should be paid to whether the early - month spot expectations can be realized [4][69] - **Peanuts**: The old crop has support at the bottom [4][70] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Hold 10 short positions [4][53] - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: Oscillate in the short - term [4][56] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillates at a low level with limited upward momentum [4][57] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillates relatively strongly [4][58] - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly [2][61]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][2][3][4][5] Core Views Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract opened higher and then followed the coking coal futures to fluctuate lower. Spot prices gradually increased by 100 - 200 yuan per ton. Considering potential policies and production - cut plans, prices may rebound. It is advisable to buy slightly out - of - the - money call options. Also, pay attention to the impact of environmental inspections on production and control positions in the 09 contract [1] Polysilicon - Although polysilicon prices have risen, the current reality does not support a significant price increase. Attention should be paid to future production - cut plans to reach supply - demand balance. When volatility is low, consider buying straddles/put options and control positions in the 09 contract [2] Glass and Soda Ash - The soda ash market is in an obvious oversupply situation, and there is no growth expectation for demand. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and upstream factory load regulation. The glass market is in the off - season, with weak demand. The industry needs capacity clearance, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and control risks [4] Logs - The log futures market is affected by weak demand and fluctuates repeatedly. Last week, inventory decreased, but this week's expected increase in arrivals will still put pressure on the spot market. The market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy expectations [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis - On July 30, the prices of various types of industrial silicon increased, with the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon rising to 10,000 yuan per ton, a 2.04% increase; the basis also increased, with the basis of oxygen - passing SI5530 increasing by 58.89% [1] Inter - monthly Spreads - The spreads between different contracts changed significantly. For example, the spread between 2508 - 2509 increased by 90.91% [1] Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production decreased by 12.10% to 30.08 tons. Production in Xinjiang decreased by 20.55%, while production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 9.35% and 145.65% respectively. Organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and recycled aluminum alloy production all increased [1] Inventory Changes - Xinjiang and Yunnan's inventories increased, while Sichuan's inventory decreased. Social inventory decreased by 2.19% to 53.50 tons, and warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 0.47% [1] Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 44,500 yuan per ton. The basis of N - type material decreased by 90.59% [2] Futures Prices and Inter - monthly Spreads - The main contract of polysilicon opened higher and fluctuated up, with some contracts hitting the daily limit. The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the spread between "continuous one - continuous two" decreasing by 76.00% [2] Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly polysilicon production increased by 10.87% to 2.55 tons. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10% to 10.10 tons, imports increased by 16.59%, and exports increased by 5.96% [2] Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory decreased by 2.41% to 24.30 tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 11.55% [2] Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 increased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 16.95% [4] Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of soda ash in various regions remained unchanged. The price of soda ash 2505 increased slightly, while the price of soda ash 2509 decreased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 10.64% [4] Production and Sales Volumes - Soda ash production decreased by 1.28% to 72.38 tons, the float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.76% to 15.90 tons, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 1.47% to 90,490 tons [4] Inventory - Glass factory inventory decreased by 4.70% to 6189.00 ten - thousand cases, soda ash factory inventory decreased by 2.15% to 186.46 tons, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 21.86% to 30.05 tons [4] Real Estate Data - New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50% [4] Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures fluctuated. The price of the 2509 contract decreased by 0.60% to 825 yuan per cubic meter. The spot prices of main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged [5] Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged, and the import theoretical cost remained unchanged [5] Supply (Monthly) - Port shipments increased by 2.12% to 176.0 ten - thousand cubic meters, and the number of departing ships decreased by 8.62% [5] Inventory (Weekly) - National log inventory decreased by 3.65% to 317.00 ten - thousand cubic meters [5] Demand (Weekly) - The average daily log出库 volume increased by 3% to 6.41 ten - thousand cubic meters [5]