Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Bearish [6] - Polysilicon: Neutral (Suggested to wait and see) [7] - Lithium carbonate: Sideways [85] Core Views of the Report - The supply and demand of industrial silicon have both decreased, and with the strengthening expectation of polysilicon production cuts, the support below the price is weak [6]. - The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak, and the existing "anti-involution" measures may violate "anti-monopoly" regulations, leading to a revaluation of the polysilicon price. Future prices may continue to correct the previous policy expectations of "anti-involution." Due to the high speculative atmosphere in the polysilicon futures market and large price fluctuations, the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures, resulting in poor contract liquidity [7]. - In terms of demand for lithium carbonate, there are more production suspensions and maintenance in the material sector in January, and the scheduled production has decreased month-on-month, but the prosperity is higher than in previous years. In terms of supply, the scheduled production in January has decreased, and there is no sign of large-scale production increase. The weekly data shows a slight increase in production and a slight accumulation of inventory, indicating obvious off-season characteristics. Coupled with the large short - term increase and a large number of profit - taking positions, the lithium carbonate price may fluctuate in the short term [85]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: The national weekly production is 80,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77%; the number of open furnaces is 228, a week - on - week decrease of 3. The production in January is scheduled to be 377,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 24.26% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of polysilicon is 25,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.71%; the weekly production of silicone is 44,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90%. The production of both in January is scheduled to decline significantly [6]. - **Inventory**: The visible inventory is 512,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.65%; the industry inventory is 457,900 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the warehouse receipt inventory is 54,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.42% [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9,088 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03%; the gross profit per ton is - 97 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [6]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. The supply and demand of industrial silicon have both decreased, and the price support is weak [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bearish on single - side trading. Pay attention to the disturbances of large manufacturers' production cuts and restarts and changes in environmental protection policies [6]. Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply**: The national weekly production is 25,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.71%. The production in January is scheduled to be 107,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.67% and a year - on - year increase of 14.19% [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 10.26GW, a week - on - week decrease of 0.97%. The factory inventory is 26.23GW, a week - on - week increase of 13.11% [7]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 311,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.65%, with continuous inventory accumulation; the registered warehouse receipts are 13,290 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.93%, with continuous increase [7]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 42,795 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 0.71%; the gross profit per ton is 16,415 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 7,437 yuan [7]. - **News**: The State Administration for Market Regulation has required the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and the interviewed enterprises not to engage in monopolistic behavior and has asked them to submit written rectification measures by January 20 [7]. - **Investment View**: Wait and see. The weak fundamentals of polysilicon and the potential violation of "anti - monopoly" regulations by "anti - involution" measures have led to a revaluation of the price. The contract liquidity is poor, and investors are reminded to pay attention to price fluctuations and liquidity risks [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see on single - side trading. Pay attention to the disturbances of large manufacturers' production cuts and restarts and changes in "anti - involution" policies [7]. Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: The national weekly production is 22,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.51%. The production in January is scheduled to be about 98,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.24% and a year - on - year increase of 56.78% [85]. - **Import**: In November, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 22,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.64% and a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The import volume of lithium concentrate was 677,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.59% and a year - on - year increase of 40.42% [85]. - **Material Demand**: The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate is 99,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.34%; the weekly production of ternary materials is 18,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55%. The production of both in January is scheduled to decline [85]. - **Terminal Demand**: In November, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.88 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.10% and a year - on - year increase of 20.03%; the sales volume was 1.823 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.27% and a year - on - year increase of 20.59%. The cumulative winning bid power/scale of energy storage from January to November was 59.48GW/160.39GWh, a year - on - year increase of 70.53%/118.93% [85]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 10.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.31%; the lithium salt factory inventory is 18,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.05%; the downstream inventory is 91,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.41%. The warehouse receipt inventory is 25,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25.04% [85]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium mica for external ore purchase is 130,468 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 13.88%; the production profit is 2,792 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,340 yuan/ton. The cash production cost of lithium spodumene is 134,245 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 13.64%; the production profit is 2,351 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,619 yuan/ton [85]. - **Investment View**: Sideways. The lithium carbonate market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and the price may fluctuate in the short term [85]. - **Trading Strategy**: Sideways on single - side trading. Pay attention to the disturbances of ore production cuts, changes in environmental protection policies, and the disturbances of large power battery manufacturers [85].

Group 1: Macro Overview - The US non-farm employment population increased by 50,000 in December 2025, below the expected 60,000 and the previous value of 64,000 [18] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, compared to the expected 4.5% and the previous 4.6% [18] - The Federal Reserve report indicates that consumers expect prices to rise by 3.4% over the next year, up from 3.2% in November [18] Group 2: Copper Market Fundamentals - Domestic TC quotes for copper concentrate remain at historical lows, maintaining tight supply sentiment, supported by the ongoing strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile [19] - January electrolytic copper production is estimated at 1.1636 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% but a year-on-year increase of 14.7% due to tight copper concentrate supply [19] - In November, net imports of refined copper decreased by 58.16% year-on-year to 161,700 tons, while scrap copper imports increased by 5.87% month-on-month to 208,100 tons [19] Group 3: Inventory and Demand Dynamics - As of January 9, global visible copper inventory increased by 48,000 tons to 961,000 tons, with LME inventory decreasing by 8,450 tons to 138,975 tons [19] - Domestic refined copper social inventory increased by 34,900 tons week-on-week to 273,800 tons, indicating cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises [19] - The copper price has risen again, but downstream enterprises are purchasing cautiously, focusing on essential needs [19] Group 4: Policy Impact on Market - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, and a reduction in the VAT export rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% [20] - The market anticipates a rush to export in the first quarter, which may temporarily boost demand for certain commodities, making it difficult for prices to sustain a downward trend [20] - Overall, the market is expected to remain in a volatile upward trend before the Spring Festival, with a focus on feedback regarding the new policy [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - series commodities are in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, sensitive to news changes. The actual terminal demand for steel is still weak, and in the short - term, the macro level is in a policy vacuum period. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, the strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their marginal impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. - For iron ore, the supply is entering the off - season, and after the resumption of iron - making, the supply - demand is expected to improve marginally. The price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of steel mill restocking and iron - making production [6]. - For silicon iron and manganese silicon, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment, cost push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contraction for silicon iron [10][11]. - For coking coal and coke, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The static supply - demand structure is balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short - term [16][17]. - For industrial silicon, it is under inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure, with attention to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [20]. - For polysilicon, the price is expected to consolidate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. - For glass, the price is boosted by production line cold - repairs and cost increases, but limited by high inventory and weak terminal orders. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. - For soda ash, the supply pressure persists, demand is weak, and the overall weak pattern remains unchanged [27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3144 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (- 0.75%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 55,633 tons, with no change from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 1.7149 million lots, a decrease of 66,939 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3294 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (- 0.69%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 112,237 tons, an increase of 3536 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.4171 million lots, a decrease of 23,805 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, demand continued to weaken, and inventory decreased slightly. Rebar production increased against the season, demand declined, and inventory accumulated slightly. The black - series is in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, sensitive to news, and attention should be paid to hot - rolled coil de - stocking and "dual - carbon" policies [3]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 814.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.18% (+ 1.50). The position changed by + 3210 lots to 639,900 lots. The weighted position was 963,700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 826 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 63.83 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 7.27% [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Supply: The year - end shipping rush of mines ended, and the overseas shipping volume decreased. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil both declined, and the shipping volume from non - mainstream countries also decreased. The near - end arrival volume increased. Demand: The average daily pig iron output continued to rise, some blast furnaces resumed production, and the utilization rate of previously resumed blast furnaces recovered. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly. Inventory: Port inventory continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventory increased but was still at a low level, with some restocking demand [6]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Market Quotes** - On January 9, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed up 0.20% at 5904 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5740 yuan/ton, with a basis of 26 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF603) closed down 0.64% at 5632 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 168 yuan/ton [8]. - Last week, the manganese silicon price fluctuated sharply, and the silicon iron price also fluctuated greatly, and both finally declined [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still loose, and that of silicon iron is basically balanced with marginal improvement. The future market is affected by the overall market sentiment, cost push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contraction for silicon iron [10][11]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Quotes** - On January 9, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed up 0.46% at 1195.5 yuan/ton. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 0.96% at 1748.0 yuan/ton. Different spot prices and their basis with the main contracts are provided [13]. - Last week, the coking coal price rose significantly, and the coke price also rose [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The rise of coking coal last week was driven by the positive commodity market atmosphere and the news of production capacity reduction. The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but the short - term high - volatility risk should be guarded against. The static supply - demand structure is balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short - term [16][17]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes** - On Friday, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8715 yuan/ton, up 2.11% (+ 180). The weighted contract position decreased by 13,806 lots to 379,975 lots. The spot prices of different grades remained unchanged, with corresponding basis [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The production in December was stable, the number of open furnaces in the southwest was at a low level, and the supply improvement was limited. The polysilicon production plan in January continued to decline, and if the production cut of a leading enterprise is implemented, it will impact the demand for industrial silicon. The demand from organic silicon is relatively stable. The price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [20]. Polysilicon - **Market Quotes** - On Friday, the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 51,300 yuan/ton, down 4.31% (- 2310). The weighted contract position decreased by 7303 lots to 97,286 lots. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon decreased, with a basis of 3700 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - The anti - monopoly meeting minutes and market adjustment affected the price. The spot price increased before the Spring Festival, but the downstream is waiting and watching. If the production cut of a leading enterprise is implemented, the supply pressure will be relieved. The price is expected to consolidate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes** - Glass: On Friday, the main contract of glass closed at 1144 yuan/ton, down 1.63% (- 19). The inventory of float glass enterprises decreased by 2.37%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions [24]. - Soda Ash: On Friday, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1228 yuan/ton, down 0.89% (- 11). The inventory of soda ash enterprises increased by 2.37%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their positions [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoints** - Glass: The daily melting volume decreased, and the cost increased, boosting the price. However, the terminal orders are weak, and the high inventory restricts the price increase. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. - Soda Ash: The supply is stable, the demand from downstream glass industries decreased, the inventory continued to accumulate, and the market is still weak [27].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The polysilicon market was affected by anti - monopoly regulatory policies, which may restrict the volume and price of leading silicon enterprises and drag down the fundamental demand for industrial silicon in the short term [2][5][8]. - The supply side continued to converge. Xinjiang's开工率 dropped to around 80%, the production in Southwest China was weak during the dry season, and the production in Inner Mongolia and Gansu was stable. The demand side also showed a weak trend. Polysilicon supply entered a convergence state, with significant production cuts in some parts of Southwest China, and the output in December was expected to drop to 110,000 tons. The production cuts of silicon wafer enterprises effectively relieved the inventory pressure, but the overall market shipments were limited. The capacity release of battery cell enterprises did not change significantly, and the second - and third - tier enterprises controlled the shipment rhythm. The rising silver price significantly pushed up the production cost, which was expected to drag down the production plan. Near the end of the year, the demand for components was weak, and enterprises mostly produced based on sales to control inventory, with the mainstream TOPCON182 transaction price maintained at 0.66 - 0.72 yuan/watt. The social inventory of industrial silicon dropped to 553,000 tons last week, and the spot market of industrial silicon remained stable overall due to the weakening of futures prices [2][5][8]. - Overall, the sudden anti - monopoly regulatory policy on polysilicon dampened market confidence, and the seasonal off - peak consumption at the end of the year dragged down the inventory removal rhythm of silicon materials, causing the market sentiment in the industrial products sector to cool down significantly. Technically, the main contract temporarily found support at the 8550 level, but the short - term upward space might be limited, and the futures price of industrial silicon was expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust [2][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data | Contract | 1/9/25 | 12/31/24 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial Silicon Main Contract | 8715 | 8860 | - 145 | - 1.64% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - containing 553 Spot | 9250 | 9250 | 0 | 0% | Yuan/ton | | Non - oxygen - containing 553 Spot | 9200 | 9200 | 0 | 0% | Yuan/ton | | 421 Spot | 9650 | 9650 | 0 | 0% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 Spot | 10350 | 10350 | 0 | 0% | Yuan/ton | | Organic Silicon DMC Spot | 13600 | 13600 | 0 | 0% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon Dense Material Spot | 54 | 52 | 2 | 3.85% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial Silicon Social Inventory | 55.3 | 56.1 | - 0.8 | - 1.43% | 10,000 tons | [3] Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro aspect: China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year in December, the highest in 34 months. The effect of consumption - boosting policies continued to appear, and the prices of communication tools, mother and baby products, cultural and entertainment durable consumer goods, and household appliances all rose, with the increase ranging from 1.4% to 3.0%. Affected by the rise in international gold prices, the price of domestic gold jewelry increased by 5.6%. Energy prices dropped by 0.5%, with domestic gasoline prices dropping by 1.2% due to international oil price changes, affecting the CPI to drop by about 0.04% month - on - month. Food prices increased by 0.3%, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.05% month - on - month. Before the festival, the demand for fresh fruits and shrimp and crab increased, with prices rising by 2.6% and 2.5% respectively. The price of fresh vegetables rose by 0.8%, with the increase lower than the seasonal level by 3.3%. The production capacity of pigs was relatively sufficient, and the price of pork dropped by 1.7% [6]. - Policy aspect: The national regulatory authorities clearly put forward rectification requirements, including comprehensively sorting out the coordinated actions carried out and submitting a complete description including investment agreements and meeting minutes. The rectification plan should strictly prohibit the agreement on production capacity, production and sales volume, and sales quota, strictly prohibit market division and profit distribution, and at the same time, prohibit coordination on information such as price and cost. Enterprises and associations are required to establish an anti - monopoly mechanism and submit written rectification measures by January 20th. If they violate the regulations again in the future, law enforcement will be initiated [6][7]. - Inventory aspect: As of January 9th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon dropped to 553,000 tons, remaining flat month - on - month. The terminal consumption slowed down as the social inventory rose again. The registered warehouse receipt volume in the exchange continued to increase. As of January 9th, the warehouse receipt inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose to 10,888 lots, totaling 54,000 tons. After the expiration of the exchange's warehouse receipts, they were re - registered and stored again. After the exchange implemented the new warehouse receipt delivery standard, the current mainstream 5 - series goods became the main delivery model in the exchange. The 5 - series warehouse receipts that meet the new delivery standard are actively registered and stored, forming a new source of warehouse receipt inventory. Currently, the number of 5 - series warehouse receipts registered and stored is increasing day by day. The warehouse receipt inventory has remained around 50,000 tons recently mainly because the positive effect of the photovoltaic industry in responding to the national call for anti - involution has strengthened the enterprise production cut expectation [7]. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued an announcement on adjusting the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and other products. Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and starting from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate for battery products will be cancelled. For the products subject to consumption tax among the above - mentioned products, the export consumption tax policy will remain unchanged, and the consumption tax refund (exemption) policy will continue to apply. The export tax rebate rate applicable to the products listed in this announcement is determined by the export date indicated on the export goods declaration form [9]. - Recently, Jiangsu Institute of China Energy Engineering Group won the bid for the survey and design service of the 1.5 - million - kilowatt photovoltaic desert control project of the Western Inner Mongolia Tuoketuo Power Transmission Phase II of Tuoketuo New Energy Division of Inner Mongolia Company. This project is the third batch of large - scale wind and solar power base projects in the country, located in Dalate Banner, Ordos City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, with a planned installed capacity of 1.5 GW. The project integrates photovoltaic power generation and desert control, using forms such as photovoltaic desert control and grass - light complementarity to strengthen sand prevention and fixation measures, curb desert expansion, and promote the efficient use of land resources, with good ecological, economic, and social benefits. After the project is completed, it can provide 2.6 billion kWh of clean electricity to the power grid on average every year, save more than 790,000 tons of standard coal, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by more than 2.16 million tons, effectively increasing the proportion of "green electricity" in the regional power grid [10]. - In the face of the complex overseas market barriers, China's photovoltaic industry is at a critical turning point in going global. The Polaris Solar Photovoltaic Network conducted in - depth research on many leading enterprises in the industry and launched a special series of analyses on overseas markets, focusing on the Middle East. According to the development plans announced by various countries, by 2030, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Jordan, and Egypt plan to increase the proportion of renewable energy power generation to 50%, 35%, 31%, and 42% respectively, and Oman's goal is to reach 30%. In addition, the UAE aims to increase the installed capacity of renewable energy to 14.2 GW by 2030, and Oman has also set a photovoltaic power generation installed capacity target of 4.5 GW. Chinese enterprises have played a crucial role in this process. Incomplete statistics show that since this year, Chinese engineering enterprises represented by China Energy Engineering Group and Power Construction Corporation of China have signed, started, and connected more than 15 photovoltaic projects in the Middle East, including ten "GW - level" major projects [11]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on industrial silicon production, export volume, domestic social inventory, Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory, weekly production in major production areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon, polysilicon spot price, and organic silicon spot price, with data sources from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [13][14][15].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货工业硅、多晶硅周报 将取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税 20260111 作者：陈小国 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03100622 交易咨询号：Z0021111 审核：萧勇辉，从业资格号：F03091536,交易咨询号：Z0019917 2 行业格局 3 期现市场 4 库存 1 周度观点及热点资讯 8 进出口 5 成本利润 6 供给 7 需求 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及热点资讯 热点资讯 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。自2026年 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term (1 - 3 months), medium - term (3 - 6 months), and long - term (6 - 12 months) ratings for both industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon are "oscillation" [1][5] Core Viewpoints - The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026, will lead to a significant rush of exports in Q1 2026, but it is a negative factor for demand in the whole - year perspective. After the rush - export period, the entire industrial chain will face greater pressure [2][11][12] - In the short term, leading polycrystalline silicon enterprises will maintain price - holding strategies, but the possibility of price - testing at lower prices by second - and third - tier enterprises increases. Polycrystalline silicon prices may oscillate between 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [2][16] - The supply - demand situation of industrial silicon depends on the demand side. In the short term, industrial silicon may operate between 8,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to interval operation opportunities [3][18][19] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2605 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 145 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8,715 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 remained flat at 9,250 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The PS2605 contract of polycrystalline silicon decreased by 6,620 yuan/ton week - on - week to 51,300 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re - feeding materials from the Silicon Industry Association increased by 5,300 yuan/ton week - on - week to 59,200 yuan/ton [9][10] 2. Polycrystalline Silicon - There were many industry news this week, including rumors of production cuts by leading polycrystalline silicon enterprises, the market supervision department's interview with the photovoltaic industry association and leading enterprises, and the cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026 [11] - It is expected that there will be a significant rush of exports of photovoltaic products in Q1 2026. The expected domestic component production in Q1 2026 is revised upwards to 125GW, a 31% increase from the previous expectation. After April 2026, the annual component export volume is expected to decline by 5 - 10%, and the annual component production will be reduced to about 468GW, a 3% decrease from the previous expectation [12] - During the rush - export window period, downstream sectors have the hope of price increases, but in the whole - year view, the profit pressure on downstream enterprises is greater. After the window period, the cancellation of the export tax rebate will intensify the losses of component enterprises [13] - During the rush - export window period, polycrystalline silicon prices still depend on the price alliance. After the window period, the entire industrial chain will face greater pressure [14] 3. Industrial Silicon - This week, the number of furnaces in Xinjiang increased by 1, Shaanxi increased by 1, and Qinghai decreased by 1. Yunnan's operation rate remained low. An integrated large - scale enterprise may cut industrial silicon production in Sichuan to zero by the end of the month [17] - The improvement of the supply - demand situation of industrial silicon depends on the demand side. The reduction of polycrystalline silicon production is expected to match that of industrial silicon, having no marginal impact on the supply - demand of industrial silicon. The organic silicon price is expected to rise further, and the supply side may adjust due to the cancellation of export tax rebates. The supply and demand of industrial silicon will be in a tight balance from January to February, and there will be significant inventory accumulation after March if the Xinjiang large - scale enterprise resumes production [18] 4. Hot News Compilation - On January 9, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026 [20] - A leading enterprise raised the silicon wafer quotation, but no other silicon wafer enterprises followed, and downstream battery enterprises did not accept the price increase. Market sentiment is becoming more wait - and - see [20] 5. High - frequency Data Tracking of the Industrial Chain 5.1 Industrial Silicon - Relevant data charts include China's oxygen - blown 553 spot price, 99 - silicon spot price, national and regional industrial silicon weekly output, and social and factory inventories [22][24][28] 5.2 Organic Silicon - Relevant data charts include China's DMC spot price, weekly profit, factory inventory, and weekly output [30][31] 5.3 Polycrystalline Silicon - Relevant data charts include China's polycrystalline silicon spot price, weekly gross profit, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly output [36][39] 5.4 Silicon Wafers - Relevant data charts include China's silicon wafer spot price, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly output, as well as profit calculations [41][43][45] 5.5 Battery Cells - Relevant data charts include China's battery cell spot price, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly output, as well as profit calculations [46][47][49] 5.6 Components - Relevant data charts include China's component spot price, component finished - product inventory, and enterprise monthly output, as well as profit calculations [53][56][58]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The market is influenced by Indonesian policy news, with differences in expectations between the secondary market and the industry. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and stainless - steel prices may also show wide - range fluctuations. The key lies in the implementation of Indonesian policies in the first quarter [4][8][9]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon inventory has decreased, and attention should be paid to downstream production cuts. Polysilicon is expected to see a boost in sentiment, with the supply - demand situation showing a pattern of weak supply and strong demand. It is recommended to short industrial silicon at high levels [28][34][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The "rush - to - export" demand may boost off - season demand, and lithium prices are likely to remain strong. It is recommended to use options for hedging [65][66][68]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is in a bottom - range oscillation, with a potential short - term reaction of negative news being digested after the MPOB report. Soybean oil is in a range - bound operation, waiting for the resonance of themes in the first quarter [99][100][102]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: The price fluctuations of soybean meal and soybean No.1 mainly depend on the USDA report. If the report is positive, soybean meal prices are expected to rise; otherwise, they will remain in a low - level oscillation [113][114][119]. - **Corn**: The corn market is expected to be oscillating strongly. Although there are some negative factors, the price decline before the Spring Festival is expected to be limited [133][134][138]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a low - level consolidation, and the domestic market maintains a weak basis expectation. Attention should be paid to Brazilian production and export rhythms, Indian production and policies, and domestic import policies [157][159][184]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton followed the Chinese cotton price and then declined. The domestic cotton market lacks new drivers, and it is recommended to wait until after the Spring Festival to consider trading based on demand [185][186][201]. - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs is expected to be weakly oscillating, and the futures price of the LH2603 contract is under pressure in the near - term [203][204][206]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is oscillating. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking by oil mills, and after the festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure [220][221]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Influencing Factors**: News mainly includes the 250 million - ton nickel ore quota target in Indonesia, the consideration of including associated minerals in the pricing and taxation system, and fines for illegal mining [4][5]. - **Market Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely due to the confrontation between industrial and secondary - market funds. Stainless - steel prices may follow nickel prices and are also affected by cost and fundamental factors [8][9]. - **Inventory Situation**: Refined nickel, new - energy, and nickel - iron - stainless - steel inventories have different trends. For example, on January 9, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 3,306 tons [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon prices fell from high levels, and polysilicon prices adjusted downward [28]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon supply decreased marginally, and demand was weak. Polysilicon supply decreased, and demand increased. The overall industry inventory showed different trends [29][30][33]. - **Market Outlook**: Industrial silicon is recommended to be shorted at high levels, and polysilicon is expected to be in a certain price range [34][35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: Futures and spot prices continued to rise [65]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly, and demand was uncertain. Inventory increased [66][67]. - **Market Outlook**: Lithium prices are likely to remain strong, and it is recommended to use options for hedging [68]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Situation**: Palm oil was supported in the short - term, and soybean oil followed the range - bound operation of the oil and fat sector [99]. - **This Week's Outlook**: Palm oil may have a short - term reaction of negative news being digested, and soybean oil is waiting for the resonance of themes in the first quarter [100][102]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Previous Week's Situation**: U.S. soybean prices fluctuated, and domestic soybean meal and soybean No.1 prices showed different trends [113][114]. - **This Week's Outlook**: Price fluctuations depend on the USDA report [119]. Corn - **Market Review**: Spot and futures prices rose in the week of January 9. The basis of the main contract weakened [133][134]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn rose, wheat prices fell, and corn starch inventory increased. The price decline before the Spring Festival is expected to be limited [135][136][138]. Sugar - **This Week's Review**: International and domestic sugar prices showed different trends. Fund positions and production data in different countries changed [157][158]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The international market is in a low - level consolidation, and the domestic market maintains a weak basis expectation [159][184]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton followed the Chinese cotton price and then declined. Domestic cotton prices also fluctuated [185][186]. - **Market Outlook**: It is recommended to wait until after the Spring Festival to consider trading based on demand [201]. Hogs - **This Week's Review**: Spot prices were strong and oscillating, and futures prices were oscillating. The basis of the LH2603 contract increased [203][204]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Spot prices are expected to be weakly oscillating, and the futures price of the LH2603 contract is under pressure in the near - term [205][206]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices fell [220]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is oscillating. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking by oil mills, and after the festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure [221].

Report Information - **Report Title**: Energy and Chemical Weekly - **Date**: January 9, 2026 - **Research Team**: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The oil market is affected by geopolitical events such as the US takeover of Venezuela's oil industry and the turmoil in Iran. Crude oil supply has an increasing expectation, and the market faces a large inventory accumulation pressure in Q1 2026. Oil prices still have a risk of decline [7][10]. - The asphalt market has relatively balanced supply and demand, and the raw material end has certain support. It is expected that asphalt prices may run strongly. It is recommended to consider going long on asphalt and short on crude oil [30][31]. - The polyester market is in a demand - off season. PTA is expected to transition from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, and its price may decline slightly. Ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a concentrated inventory accumulation before and after the Spring Festival, and its price may have a small - scale callback [57][58]. - The price of polyester staple fiber is expected to decline due to weakening cost and poor supply - demand structure [66]. - The polyolefin market is expected to rise first and then fall under the drive of supply recovery and demand entering the off - season inventory digestion cycle [84]. - The polysilicon market has an upward price but no improvement in fundamentals. The downstream is in a cycle of production reduction, and the terminal demand is in an off - season [118]. - The industrial silicon market has a neutral performance. The supply is at a seasonal low, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [138]. - The pulp market has limited fundamental changes and is expected to operate in a volatile adjustment [154]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI crude oil closed at $58.28/barrel, up 1.66%; Brent crude oil closed at $62.79/barrel, up 3.27%; SC crude oil closed at 432.7 yuan/barrel, up 0.12%. The US takeover of Venezuela's oil industry and the turmoil in Iran have affected the oil price. The market faces inventory accumulation pressure in Q1 2026, and oil prices have a risk of decline [7]. 2. Fundamental Changes - The US takeover of Venezuela's oil industry and the turmoil in Iran have affected the supply and demand of the oil market. The US crude oil inventory decreased, but the refined oil inventory increased. The inventory accumulation speed in Q1 2026 slowed down slightly [10]. Asphalt 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The BU2603 contract closed at 3171 yuan/ton, down 4.45%. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China all increased. The supply of asphalt may decrease, and the demand is divided between the north and the south. It is recommended to go long on asphalt and short on crude oil [30][31]. 2. Fundamental Changes - The cost is affected by the oil market. The domestic asphalt device maintenance loss increased, and the average operating load rate decreased. The production profit increased. The demand is divided between the north and the south, and the inventory increased [33][34][35]. Polyester 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The cost support for PTA is weakening, and the demand is decreasing. It is expected to transition from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, and the price may decline slightly. Ethylene glycol is expected to maintain inventory accumulation, and the price may have a small - scale callback [57][58]. 2. Main Driving Forces - The downstream consumption demand is decreasing. The supply of PTA is expected to decrease, and the price may decline. The ethylene glycol industry's operating load rate decreased, the inventory increased, and the profit increased slightly [59][60][62]. Polyester Staple Fiber 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market declined last week. This week, the cost support is weak, the supply is loose, and the demand is in an off - season. It is expected that the price will decline [66]. 2. Main Driving Forces - The downstream consumption demand is weakening. The operating load rate of the polyester staple fiber industry is stable, and the supply is loose. The cost and supply - demand factors drag down the price [67][68]. Polyolefin 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The futures and spot prices of polyolefin increased last week. The supply pressure of polypropylene decreased, and the supply pressure of plastics increased slightly. The demand is in an off - season, and it is expected to rise first and then fall [76][84]. 2. Fundamental Changes - Polypropylene has more temporary maintenance, and the production decreases. The production of polyethylene increases slightly. The production profit of different raw materials has different changes. The inventory of two - oil companies decreased, and the downstream operating rate is divided [85][90][99]. Polysilicon 1. Market Review and Outlook - The price of polysilicon increased, but the fundamentals have no improvement expectation. The downstream is in a cycle of production reduction, and the terminal demand is in an off - season [118]. 2. Overview of the Photovoltaic Industry's Fundamentals - The market supervision department has taken regulatory measures. The prices of the photovoltaic industry chain are running strongly, but the supply exceeds demand, and the inventory removal resistance is large [119][121]. Industrial Silicon 1. Futures Review and Outlook - The price of industrial silicon futures declined, and the trading volume and open interest increased. The supply is at a seasonal low, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [138]. 2. Overview of the Industrial Silicon's Fundamentals - The prices of the industrial silicon industry chain are running strongly. The production of industrial silicon is at a seasonal low, the demand is weak, the export is stable, and the inventory is slowly accumulating [139][140][141]. Pulp 1. Pulp Market Review and Outlook - The price of pulp futures declined slightly. The spot prices of imported pulp mostly increased. The fundamentals of pulp changed little, and it is expected to operate in a volatile adjustment [153][154]. 2. Fundamental Changes - The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries decreased in November. China's pulp import volume increased in November. The global pulp inventory days increased, and the domestic and European port inventories decreased. The downstream market is stable [155][161][168].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, at the crucial start of the 15th Five - Year Plan, the central bank will use reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently, continue expansionary fiscal policies to boost domestic demand, integrate technological innovation with industrial upgrading, promote green energy transformation and upgrading, and pursue high - quality development. In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, high - tech manufacturing profit growth accelerated, and CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, showing signs of stabilizing and recovering domestic demand [3][50]. - On the supply side, the operating rate in Xinjiang remains at 80%, but some enterprises have routine maintenance and production cuts at the beginning of the year. Production in Sichuan and Yunnan drops significantly during the dry season, and production in Gansu and Inner Mongolia is generally stable. The supply shows a marginal decline, and social inventory is at a high level [3][50]. - On the demand side, anti - monopoly supervision in the polysilicon industry dampens market sentiment. Under the background of silicon wafer price cuts to reduce inventory, both volume and price continue to weaken. Battery manufacturers face increased cost pressure due to rising silver prices and their price - increase attempts are resisted by downstream customers. Component leaders mostly produce based on sales, gradually increasing production cuts to reduce inventory backlogs. Demand for centralized projects shows marginal cooling at the end of the year, with most projects on hold or postponed. Traditional industries such as organic silicon and aluminum alloy face downward consumption pressure. It is expected that in January 2026, the demand side will face downward pressure in the off - season, and the anti - monopoly policy in polysilicon may drag down consumer confidence. Overall, the industrial silicon price in January 2026 is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range, with the price center likely to move down compared to December [3][37][50]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 2025 December Industrial Silicon Market Review Industrial Silicon Futures Price Fluctuated within a Range - In December 2025, industrial silicon showed a trend of first falling and then rising. The main 2512 contract operated in the range of 8120 - 9240 yuan/ton, with the price center lower than the previous month. The manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and industrial enterprise profit growth remained stable. A polysilicon anti - involution platform was launched. On the supply side, the operating rate in Xinjiang remained above 80%, production in the southwest was low during the dry season, and production in Inner Mongolia and Gansu increased. On the demand side, polysilicon manufacturers planned price adjustments, silicon wafer prices were close to the cash cost line, battery manufacturers signaled price increases due to cost pressure, and component manufacturers' price - increase attempts were resisted by downstream customers. The short - term sharp decline in polysilicon futures prices dragged down the industrial silicon price [8]. The Spot Market Remained Stable with a Slight Decline - In December 2025, the number of operating furnaces in the three major industrial silicon producing areas in China was 240, with an overall operating rate of 30.1%. Electricity prices in the southwest increased during the dry season, raising production costs. The operating rate in Xinjiang rose above 80% but decreased slightly at the end of the month due to production cuts by some large factories. Production in Sichuan and Yunnan decreased due to high electricity prices, and production in Gansu and Inner Mongolia was stable. Domestic production in December decreased slightly to 39.7 million tons. By the end of December, social inventory decreased slightly to 55.3 million tons. Mainstream 553 grade spot prices fluctuated moderately. It is expected that in January 2026, the prices of domestic mainstream grades will continue to fluctuate within a range, and the spot market is expected to operate stably [11][12]. Macroeconomic Analysis In December, the Manufacturing PMI Returned to the Expansion Range, and High - Tech Manufacturing Profit Growth Accelerated - In December 2025, China's official manufacturing PMI was 50.1, the first expansion since April. Large - scale enterprise PMI was 50.8, up 1.5% month - on - month, and medium - sized enterprise PMI was 49.8, approaching the boom - bust line. The production index was 51.7, indicating accelerating manufacturing production; the new order index was 50.8, showing improved market demand; the raw material inventory index was 47.8, with a narrowing decline in raw material inventory; the employment index was 48.2, indicating a decline in employment sentiment; and the supplier delivery index was 50.2, indicating faster delivery times. In November 2025, industrial enterprise profits decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, and the cumulative profit from January to November increased by 0.1% year - on - year, maintaining positive cumulative growth for the fourth consecutive month. From January to November, high - tech manufacturing profits increased by 10.0% year - on - year, 2.0 percentage points faster than from January to October, and 9.9 percentage points higher than the average of all large - scale industrial enterprises [16][17]. Fundamental Analysis Northern Production Declined from a High Level, and Production in the Southwest was Low during the Dry Season - In 2025, China's industrial silicon production showed fluctuations. From January to November, the cumulative production was 3.868 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. Xinjiang's production showed a pattern of low at first and high later, with a cumulative production of 1.9248 million tons from January to November, accounting for 52.03%. Production in Sichuan and Yunnan increased from the dry season to the wet season. The new production capacity in Gansu, Inner Mongolia and other places was limited. Overall, in the context of anti - involution policies, China's industrial silicon supply showed a contraction trend [21][22]. In November, Industrial Silicon Exports Increased by 22% Month - on - Month - From January to November 2025, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 661,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. In November, the export volume was 54,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. China's industrial silicon exports are mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia. With the recovery of foreign trade exports and the development of the photovoltaic industry in emerging markets, the export scale of industrial silicon is expected to continue to grow, and the export volume in January 2026 is expected to be between 50,000 and 70,000 tons [25]. In December, Social Inventory was at a High Level, and Warehouse Receipt Inventory Faced Centralized Cancellations - By December 31, 2025, the national industrial silicon social inventory decreased slightly to 5.53 million tons, still at a high level. The warehouse receipt quantity on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 10,231 lots, equivalent to 51,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68.9%. After the implementation of the new warehouse receipt delivery standard, mainstream 5 - series products became the main delivery models. It is expected that in January 2026, China's social inventory will continue to rise [28]. The Anti - Involution of the Photovoltaic Industry Entered a Crucial Stage, and the Consumption of Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy was Relatively Sluggish - **Polysilicon**: Anti - monopoly supervision was strengthened, and a new platform for capacity clearance was established. From January to November 2024, the cumulative production of polysilicon was 1.206 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.3%. The anti - monopoly policy hit market confidence and led to a sharp decline in futures prices. - **Silicon wafers**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative production was 607,000 tons. Facing over - capacity and high inventory, many enterprises cut production in the fourth quarter, and the overall operating rate dropped to about 45%. - **Battery cells**: The price showed a downward trend throughout the year. In the third quarter, the overseas orders of 183N battery cells decreased, and the domestic demand for 210N battery cells weakened. - **Components**: The demand for distributed projects was weak, while the centralized market improved slightly in the fourth quarter. Most component enterprises produced based on sales and increased production cuts to reduce inventory. - **Organic silicon**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of DMC was 2.272 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The industry faced over - capacity and weak terminal consumption in the first half of the year. After the implementation of anti - involution policies in the fourth quarter, enterprises jointly cut production and raised prices, and the price rebounded to 13,600 yuan/ton. It is expected that in January 2026, the organic silicon market will remain stable in terms of volume and price. - **Aluminum alloy**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative production was 17.456 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.8%. In December, the processing fee of aluminum rods in the Foshan market showed a short - term increase but then declined. It is expected that in January 2026, the production of aluminum alloy will decline slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum rods will face pressure [30][32][34][35][37]. Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, in 2026, at the start of the 15th Five - Year Plan, the central bank will implement expansionary policies, and domestic demand shows signs of recovery. - On the supply side, production in Xinjiang may decline due to maintenance, production in Sichuan and Yunnan will be low during the dry season, and production in Gansu and Inner Mongolia will be stable. Supply will show a marginal decline, and inventory will remain high. - On the demand side, the demand for the photovoltaic industry and traditional industries such as organic silicon and aluminum alloy will face downward pressure in the off - season. - Overall, the industrial silicon price in January 2026 is expected to fluctuate weakly within a range, with the price center likely to be lower than in December [50][51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon futures prices dropped significantly, with the SI2605 contract price at 8,535 yuan/ton and a decline of 4.53%. After the sharp decline, the net long - position increased, and considering the stable spot price, the downward space is limited. It is expected to continue the convergent oscillation between 8,200 - 9,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices tumbled. The SI2605 contract price was 8,535 yuan/ton with a 4.53% decline, trading volume was 666,115 lots, and the position was 260,531 lots, with a net increase of 15,797 lots. The top twenty long - positions had a net increase of 13,580 lots, and short - positions had a net increase of 6,535 lots [4]. - Spot prices remained stable. Sichuan 553 was priced at 9,300 yuan/ton, Yunnan 553 at 8,900 yuan/ton, Sichuan 421 at 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 at 9,550 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 421 at 9,550 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Outlook - The sentiment of the strong varieties ebbed. Although coking coal and coke were running strongly, the daily limit of polysilicon in the intraday trading drove industrial silicon to accelerate its decline in the afternoon. The fundamentals of industrial silicon are relatively neutral compared to strong varieties, and policies have no imagination space. The spot price is stable and has not yet opened up the upward space [4]. 3.3 Market News - On January 08, the industrial silicon warehouse receipts volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 10,792 lots, a decrease of 7 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In the 4th week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 456,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 24.08% [5]. - In the 4th week of December, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 81,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.68% and a year - on - year increase of 9.35% [5].