Group 1: General Information - Report date: November 04, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different products such as industrial silicon [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices opened low, then trended lower, and finally rebounded weakly. The Si2601 contract closed at 9140 yuan/ton, down 0.38%, with a trading volume of 226,808 lots and an open interest of 228,268 lots, a net decrease of 297 lots [4] - The price range of 553 industrial silicon is 8900 - 9300 yuan/ton, and the price range of 421 is 9550 - 9950 yuan/ton [5] Outlook - Industrial silicon enterprises have insufficient willingness to actively cut production. Supply in October will exceed about 430,000 tons, and there is no incremental demand. The loose supply - demand situation means there is no inventory reduction drive, and social inventory still exceeds 440,000 tons [5] - Spot prices have limited guidance on short - term futures prices. The expected support in the fourth quarter mainly comes from rising costs in the southwest and active production cuts, but the effectiveness of the positive factors remains to be seen [5] - The industrial silicon market has limited strong drivers. The futures price is still within the adjustment range since August. In November, warehouse receipts need to be concentrated for cancellation and delivery, which will intensify short - term price fluctuations, but the upside resistance is still obvious [5] Group 3: Market News - On November 03, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 46,161 lots, a net decrease of 1,092 lots from the previous trading day [6] - On October 31, the industrial silicon market inventory was 447,700 tons, a weekly increase of 0.58% and a year - on - year increase of 43.59% [6] - In September, the export volume of industrial silicon was 70,232.72 tons, a decrease of 8.36% from the previous month but a year - on - year increase of 7.73%. From January to September, the cumulative export volume was 491,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.55%, with an average monthly export volume of 61,500 tons [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, with the arrival of the dry season, the industrial silicon market further reduced production. The demand for polysilicon was highly uncertain, while the demand for silicone and aluminum alloy was relatively stable. Cost provided support for the price floor, but high inventory restricted the upward price movement. Today, industrial silicon bottomed out and rebounded but still closed lower. Overall, the bottom support strengthened, and it is expected to continue oscillating. The operation suggestion is to buy on dips and pay attention to operational risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9,140 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the position of the main contract was 228,268 lots, down 297 lots; the net position of the top 20 was -56,668 lots, up 770 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 46,161 lots, down 1,092 lots; the closing price of the December contract for industrial silicon was -430 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts for industrial silicon was -430 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 310 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,800 yuan/ton, up 525 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 2,110 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons; the weekly output of silicone DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 21,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.85 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.5 US dollars/kg, down 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC was 68.56%, down 1.49 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.776 million tons, up 141,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Hesheng Silicon Industry (603260.SH) released its Q3 2025 report, with operating income of 5.43 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 23.51%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of 75.6675 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 84.12%. Although still showing negative year - on - year growth, the single - quarter profit index turned positive compared to the loss in the first half of the year. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. China will adjust its counter - measures accordingly, and both sides agreed to extend some tariff exclusion measures [2] 3.7 Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, as Sichuan and Yunnan transition from the wet season to the dry season in October, production costs for manufacturers increased, and some enterprises with exhausted raw materials stopped production. As November approached, the scale of production cuts in the dry season expanded further. In Xinjiang, with stable and low - cost power supply, some manufacturers actively increased production, with an increase in the number of open furnaces and continuous release of production capacity. On the demand side, the downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in silicone, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy. For silicone, inventory was lower than the historical average, production profit was flat, and it provided certain rigid - demand procurement support for industrial silicon. For polysilicon, inventory reached 282,600 tons, higher than the historical average. Rising silicon wafer prices were beneficial for polysilicon demand, but production cuts in the dry season were expected to have a negative impact on industrial silicon demand. For aluminum alloy, the operating rate of enterprises remained stable, the demand for industrial silicon remained high, and the demand performance was relatively stable, but its marginal impact on the price of industrial silicon was limited [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices reached a record high this week and then declined. Although the long - term demand outlook for copper is optimistic due to factors such as tight copper concentrate supply and increasing demand from computing power construction, short - term high prices are suppressing downstream demand. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Copper operating in the range of 85,000 - 89,000. It is recommended to exit long positions at high levels or conduct short - term trading within the range [2]. - Aluminum prices are in a high - level upward oscillation. However, as the rainy season in Guinea ends and alumina prices weaken, there is downward pressure on ore prices. The operating capacity of alumina has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly. It is recommended to reduce positions and take profits at high levels for aluminum - related products [2]. - Zinc prices are in a relatively strong oscillation. Although the processing fees of zinc ore have decreased, the production enthusiasm of smelters is high, and the output of refined zinc is expected to remain at a high level. Terminal consumption is weak, and inventory is at a high level. It is expected that Shanghai Zinc will maintain an oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 21,800 - 23,000, and it is recommended to conduct range trading [2]. - Lead prices are in a sideways oscillation. Supply is decreasing, but downstream procurement is cautious due to high prices. Considering the strong production and consumption demand and the temporary truce in the Sino - US trade war, lead prices may continue to rise after consolidation. It is recommended to go long at low levels within the range of 17,100 - 17,800 [2]. - Nickel prices are in an intra - range oscillation and decline. The cost of the nickel industry is relatively stable, but the nickel market remains in a surplus situation, with continuous inventory accumulation. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels, with the main contract of Shanghai Nickel operating in the range of 119,000 - 123,000; for stainless steel, it is also recommended to hold short positions at high levels, with the main contract operating in the range of 12,400 - 12,900 [3]. - Tin prices are in a high - level oscillation and overall upward trend. Although tin ore supply is expected to improve, downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference operating range of the Shanghai Tin 12 contract being 275,000 - 295,000, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. - Industrial silicon prices are in an oscillatory adjustment. The production and inventory of industrial silicon and related products such as polysilicon and organic silicon have changed. It is recommended to conduct range trading or wait and see, and pay attention to the implementation of the polysilicon storage platform and production reduction [3]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and downstream demand is strong. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the progress of mining certificates in Yichun and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - From October 27th to November 2nd, important economic data were released. China's industrial enterprise profits in September increased by 21.6% year - on - year, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing showed good growth. The Sino - US leaders held a meeting, and the Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus on tariff and export control measures. China's official manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 49, while the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the eurozone's GDP in the third quarter increased by 0.2% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding expectations. The US Senate passed a resolution to terminate Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, but it is expected to face difficulties in the House of Representatives [11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. 3.2 Copper - Price trend: Reached a record high and then declined, expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply of copper concentrate is tight, but short - term high prices are suppressing downstream demand, and inventory is accumulating [2]. - Investment advice: Exit long positions at high levels or conduct short - term trading within the range [2]. 3.3 Aluminum - Price trend: High - level upward oscillation, with the oscillation range broken through [46]. - Fundamental factors: The rainy season in Guinea ends, alumina prices weaken, the operating capacity of alumina decreases, and the inventory increases. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increases slightly, and downstream demand is affected by the transition from peak to off - peak season [2]. - Investment advice: Reduce positions and take profits at high levels [2]. 3.4 Zinc - Price trend: Relatively strong oscillation [2]. - Fundamental factors: Zinc ore processing fees have decreased, smelter production enthusiasm is high, terminal consumption is weak, and inventory is at a high level [2]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading [2]. 3.5 Lead - Price trend: Sideways oscillation [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is decreasing, downstream procurement is cautious due to high prices, but production and consumption demand are strong [2]. - Investment advice: Go long at low levels within the range [2]. 3.6 Nickel - Price trend: Intra - range oscillation and decline [3]. - Fundamental factors: The cost of the nickel industry is relatively stable, but the nickel market is in a surplus situation, with continuous inventory accumulation [3]. - Investment advice: Hold short positions at high levels [3]. 3.7 Tin - Price trend: High - level oscillation and overall upward trend [3]. - Fundamental factors: Tin ore supply is expected to improve, but downstream consumption is weak [3]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading [3]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - Price trend: Oscillatory adjustment [3]. - Fundamental factors: The production and inventory of industrial silicon and related products have changed, and the production of polysilicon is expected to decrease in November [3]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading or wait and see [3]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - Price trend: Wide - range oscillation [3]. - Fundamental factors: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, downstream demand is strong, and there are uncertainties in mining certificates [3]. - Investment advice: Trade cautiously [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 01 contract showed an upward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 8950 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 9100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.68%. It is expected that next week, the supply-side production schedule will increase, demand recovery will be at a low level, cost support will rise, and the market will likely experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [4]. - For polysilicon, the 01 contract also showed an upward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 52510 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 56410 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 7.43%. It is expected that next week, the supply-side production schedule will continue to decrease, overall demand will show a continuous decline, cost support will remain stable, and the market will likely experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 100,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99%. The sample enterprise output was 48,725 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.36%. The expected monthly operating rate is 69.23%, an increase of 7.29 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - **Demand**: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 87,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.44%, and demand remained weak. In terms of polysilicon, the inventory was 261,000 tons, at the same level as the historical average. In terms of organic silicon, the inventory was 56,300 tons, lower than the historical average, and the production was in a loss state. In terms of aluminum alloy, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots was 73,500 tons, higher than the historical average [5]. - **Cost**: The production loss of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 3144 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory was 558,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.18%. The weekly sample enterprise inventory was 168,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.24%. The weekly major port inventory was 124,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.81% [10]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 28,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.40%. The forecasted production schedule for November is 120,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.37% from the previous month [7]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 14.24GW, a month-on-month decrease of 3.32%. The battery cell output decreased month-on-month, and the component production was profitable but also showed a downward trend [7]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N-type polysilicon in the industry was 37,990 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 14,260 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 261,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.16%, at a neutral level compared to historical periods [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the SI main contract basis, the price difference between East China 421 and 553 silicon, etc., reflecting the price relationship between the spot and futures markets and different grades of silicon [15]. - **Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory, including delivery warehouse and port inventory, SMM sample enterprise inventory, and registered warrant volume, which helps to understand the supply and demand situation in the market [17]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon production, monthly production by specification, and capacity utilization rate, as well as the operating rate trends of sample enterprises in different regions, reflecting the production status of the industry [20]. - **Cost - Sample Region Trends**: It shows the historical trends of cost and profit for 421 silicon in Sichuan, 421 silicon in Yunnan, and oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang, reflecting the cost - profit situation of different regions and specifications [27]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables for industrial silicon, showing the supply, demand, import, export, and balance situations, which helps to understand the overall supply - demand relationship in the market [29][32]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Organic Silicon**: It includes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, etc., reflecting the operating conditions of the organic silicon industry [35][37]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (related to the automotive and wheel hub industries) trends of aluminum alloy, reflecting the operating conditions of the aluminum alloy industry [44][48]. - **Polysilicon**: It includes the price, production, inventory, supply - demand balance, and the trends of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and related accessories, reflecting the operating conditions of the polysilicon industry and its downstream industries [52][55]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - **Industrial Silicon (SI)**: The main 01 contract showed an upward trend this week. Technical indicators such as moving averages were used, and it is expected that next week, the market will likely experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [74][75]. - **Polysilicon (PS)**: The main 01 contract showed an upward trend this week. Technical indicators such as moving averages were used, and it is expected that next week, the market will likely experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment [76][77].

Group 1: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the post - National Day price has been weakly oscillating, with low demand and obvious over - supply. The mid - term demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid level. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions and wait for shorting opportunities on rebounds. [1] - For glass, the weekend news of production line shutdown in Shahe may have a positive impact on the market sentiment. Although there is still some peak - season demand expectation in November, the industry still needs capacity clearance in the long - term. It is recommended to close previous short positions and look for short - term long opportunities. [1] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot prices in different regions remained unchanged on November 3, 2025. Glass 2505 decreased by 0.88%, and Glass 2509 increased by 0.08%. Soda ash 2505 decreased by 0.60%, and Soda ash 2509 increased by 0.08%. [1] - **Supply**: Soda ash's weekly output decreased by 1.71% to 75.76 tons, and its operating rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89%. Floating - glass daily melting volume remained unchanged, while photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 0.84%. [1] - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory increased by 4.72% to 65790,000 weight - cases, soda ash factory inventory increased by 2.54% to 1.702 million tons, and soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 3.18% to 676,900 tons. [1] - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area increased by 0.09%, construction area decreased by 2.43%, completion area decreased by 0.03%, and sales area decreased by 6.50%. [1] Group 2: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, rubber prices are under pressure due to the Fed's hawkish stance on December's interest - rate cut. The prices may decline further if raw - material supply is smooth; otherwise, they are expected to oscillate between 15,000 - 15,500. [2] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Most natural rubber spot prices decreased on October 31, 2025. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 6.67%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 22.22%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 16.67%. [2] - **Fundamentals**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 0.43%, Indonesia's decreased by 4.30%, India's increased by 11.11%, and China's increased. Tire production in August increased by 9.10%, and tire exports in September decreased by 10.65%. [2] - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.20%, and natural - rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory increased by 4.73%. [2] Group 3: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Although the log futures price is at a relatively low level and the import cost provides some support, the market is still expected to oscillate at the bottom due to the weak supply - demand situation. [3] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, 2025, most log futures prices changed slightly. The 11 - 01 spread decreased by 22.0, and the 11 - 03 spread decreased. [3] - **Supply**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports increased by 33% week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased by 19%. [3] - **Demand**: As of October 24, the national coniferous log inventory decreased by 80,000 cubic meters week - on - week, and the daily log delivery volume increased by 120,000 cubic meters. [3] Group 4: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In November, the industrial silicon market still faces inventory pressure. Although supply may decline slightly and demand may remain stable, the flow of warehouse receipts to the spot market will increase supply. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with a main range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. [5] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, 2025, most industrial silicon spot prices remained stable or increased slightly. The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 8.86%, and the 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 300.00%. [5] - **Fundamentals**: In October, the national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46%, the national operating rate increased by 10.86%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 0.29%, and polysilicon production increased by 3.08%. [5] - **Inventory Changes**: Most industrial silicon inventories decreased slightly, with the social inventory decreasing by 0.18% and the warehouse - receipt inventory decreasing by 0.33%. [5] Group 5: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In November, the polysilicon market is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with a high - level range - bound oscillation. Investment strategies include short - term long positions in futures, selling put options, and buying ETFs or related stocks. [6] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 31, 2025, polysilicon spot prices decreased slightly, and the futures price increased by 2.66%. The month - to - month spreads changed to varying degrees. [6] - **Fundamentals**: Weekly silicon - wafer production decreased by 3.33%, and polysilicon production decreased by 4.41%. Monthly polysilicon production increased by 3.08%, and the net export volume decreased by 56.83%. [6] - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.16%, silicon - wafer inventory increased by 2.49%, and polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 2.79%. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak last Friday, with the prices of finished steel products showing a volatile trend. With the gradual implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and the positive signals released by the Sino-US summit, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. The steel consumption side may gradually recover in the future, but the demand is still weak in the short term [2]. - For the black sector, the report maintains a non - pessimistic view. It believes that finding callback positions to do rebounds may have higher cost - effectiveness than shorting. The current macro factors are more important price - influencing factors than the weak fundamentals [11]. - Regarding manganese silicon, if the black sector strengthens, pay attention to potential disturbances in the manganese ore end, which may drive the manganese silicon market. Otherwise, it is expected to follow the black sector's trend. Silicon iron is also likely to follow the black sector, with low operational cost - effectiveness [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Products 3.1.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3106 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 124,240 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 1.87945 million lots, a decrease of 15,466 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3230 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3308 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton (- 0.30%). The registered warehouse receipts were 98,537 tons, a decrease of 298 tons. The main contract position was 1.470219 million lots, a decrease of 3067 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the Shanghai aggregated price was 3330 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.1.2 Strategy Views - The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. The demand for hot - rolled coils continued to recover, but the production was still high, and the inventory, although decreasing, remained at a relatively high level [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 800.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.31% (- 2.50). The position changed by - 11,268 lots to 540,300 lots. The weighted position was 921,900 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 803 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 54.36 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.36% [4]. 3.2.2 Strategy Views - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to increase, with Australia remaining flat, Brazil increasing, and non - mainstream countries slightly decreasing. The near - end arrival volume was at a low level this year. On the demand side, the average daily hot metal output decreased, the number of overhauled blast furnaces was much larger than that of restarted ones, and the steel mill profitability reached a new low this year. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory declined. The iron ore demand continued to weaken, and the inventory pressure remained [5]. 3.3 Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron 3.3.1 Market Quotes - On October 31, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 1.20% at 5772 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a converted basis of 5890 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and a premium of 118 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. - The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed down 0.90% at 5500 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5530 yuan/ton, with a premium of 30 yuan/ton over the futures [9]. 3.3.2 Strategy Views - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are still not ideal and lack major contradictions. Potential drivers may come from the manganese ore end. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions and drivers and are likely to follow the black sector's trend [11]. 3.4 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 3.4.1 Market Quotes - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 9100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% (- 55). The weighted contract position changed by - 16,059 lots to 408,543 lots. The spot price of non - oxygenated 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 421 market price was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 200 yuan/ton for the main contract [13]. - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 56,410 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.66% (+ 1460). The weighted contract position changed by + 9166 lots to 258,099 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.25 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 4160 yuan/ton for the main contract [16]. 3.4.2 Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure persists. Although the production in the southwest region is decreasing during the dry season, the production in the northwest region is increasing. The demand support is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [14]. - For polysilicon, with some production capacity starting maintenance, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The policy expectations have a strong impact on prices [17]. 3.5 Glass and Soda Ash 3.5.1 Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 1083 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 0.73% (- 8). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1130 yuan, unchanged; the price in Central China was 1120 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 65.79 million cases, a decrease of 823,000 cases (- 1.24%) [19]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1225 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 0.81% (- 10). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1175 yuan, a decrease of 10 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (- 1.24%), with the heavy soda ash inventory decreasing by 48,100 tons and the light soda ash inventory increasing by 48,000 tons [21]. 3.5.2 Strategy Views - For glass, the supply is loose, the enterprise inventory is accumulating, the demand recovery is slow, and the price is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the production line operation in the Shahe area [20]. - For soda ash, affected by the weak glass market, the price is under pressure. The cost increase forms a certain bottom support, but the de - stocking process is slow. It is expected to continue a narrow - range shock in the short term [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, industrial silicon prices fluctuated upwards. The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes accelerating the speed and comprehensiveness of green transformation, and the polysilicon industry conference discussed high-quality development in the photovoltaic industry next year, leading to optimistic market expectations for new polysilicon platforms. Supply side saw a marginal contraction as Xinjiang maintained over 80% capacity utilization, while Yunnan dropped to 54% due to the approaching dry season, and Sichuan's output also declined. On the demand side, the polysilicon industry conference boosted market optimism, but silicon wafer prices slightly decreased due to reduced overseas battery demand, and photovoltaic cells continued to weaken. Component demand improved, and inventory pressure eased. Industrial silicon social inventory decreased slightly to 55.8 million tons, and spot prices stabilized and rebounded with the upward fluctuation of futures contracts. Overall, prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [2][6][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From October 24th to October 31st, the industrial silicon主力 contract rose from 8,920 yuan/ton to 9,100 yuan/ton, a 2.02% increase; the oxygenated 553 spot rose 1.07% to 9,450 yuan/ton; the non-oxygenated 553 and 421 and 3303 spot prices remained unchanged; the organic silicon DMC spot fell 0.90% to 11,000 yuan/ton; the polysilicon dense material spot remained unchanged at 52 yuan/ton; and the industrial silicon social inventory decreased 0.18% to 55.8 million tons [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro aspect**: In September, China's above-scale industrial enterprise profits increased 21.4% year-on-year, and from January - September, they increased 3.2% year-on-year, the highest cumulative growth rate since August last year. Profits in industries such as electricity, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture increased, while those in textiles and petroleum extraction decreased [7]. - **Supply and demand aspect**: As of October 30th, the weekly industrial silicon output was 98,700 tons, a 0.18% week-on-week and 3.34% year-on-year increase. The number of open furnaces in the three major production areas decreased to 312, with an overall capacity utilization rate of 39.2%. Xinjiang's open furnace number remained at 151, Yunnan decreased by 6 to 40, Sichuan and Chongqing decreased by 5 to 47, and Inner Mongolia increased by 4 to 32. On the demand side, the polysilicon industry conference boosted optimism, but silicon wafer prices declined, photovoltaic cells weakened, and component demand improved. The final list of photovoltaic specifications was released, with 129 enterprises passing verification, expected to lead the industry into a new supply - demand balance cycle [8]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of October 31st, the national industrial silicon social inventory decreased to 55.8 million tons, a 0.1 million - ton week-on-week decrease. High inventory was due to slowed terminal consumption. The exchange's registered warehouse receipts decreased to 47,253 lots, equivalent to 236,000 tons. After the exchange's new delivery standard, 5 - series warehouse receipts meeting the standard were actively registered, and the warehouse receipt inventory remained around 50,000 tons due to expected production cuts in the photovoltaic industry [9]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the list of 129 enterprises meeting the photovoltaic manufacturing industry standards, which is a dynamic management of the previous twelve batches [11]. - TCL Zhonghuan, a leading photovoltaic silicon wafer enterprise, saw a significant reduction in losses in Q3 this year compared to the same period last year, benefiting from the rebound in the upstream photovoltaic industry chain prices. In Q3, it achieved an operating income of 8.174 billion yuan, a 28.34% year-on-year increase, and a net loss of 1.534 billion yuan, a significant reduction from last year's 2.998 billion yuan loss. The photovoltaic industry chain upstream prices rose in Q3, and silicon wafer prices also increased. Although the short - term silicon wafer market is expected to be weak, the medium - to - long - term outlook is not pessimistic [12].

Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [5] Core Viewpoints - After the previous hedging, the price decline of industrial silicon is unlikely to cause production cuts or shutdowns in the short term, but the price needs to exceed 10,000 yuan/ton to bring significant supply increments during the dry season or the next wet season. Therefore, it is more cost-effective to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [4]. - In November, polysilicon officially enters the critical point of the game between policy and fundamentals. Currently, policy trading may still outweigh fundamental trading. Those who hold long positions can continue to hold, while those chasing long positions face greater risks. They can consider buying call options to participate in the subsequent policy game [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2601 contract of industrial silicon increased by 180 yuan/ton to 9,100 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygenated 553 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,450 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,800 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon increased by 4,105 yuan/ton to 56,410 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N-type re-feeding material of polysilicon remained unchanged at 53,200 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Industrial Silicon Cost Increase, Polysilicon Focus on Storage Progress - **Industrial Silicon**: This week, the main futures contract of industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. Xinjiang opened 1 new furnace, while Yunnan and Sichuan reduced 3 and 6 furnaces respectively. Northern large factories may continue to resume production, while southern silicon factories are expected to significantly reduce production at the end of October. It is estimated that the number of operating furnaces in Yunnan will drop to about 20 and that in Sichuan will drop to only 18 in November. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons month-on-month, while the sample factory inventory increased by 0.04 million tons. Downstream maintains rigid demand purchases. When the market declines, aluminum factories actively place orders, and the basis of low-grade industrial silicon has strengthened. During the rising stage, it is in the state of inventory consumption. After updating the balance sheet, it is estimated that industrial silicon will have difficulty in destocking in November and will destock about 1 million tons in December [2][13]. - **Organic Silicon**: This week, the price of organic silicon decreased slightly. Some devices of several companies were under maintenance or shut down. The overall enterprise start-up rate this week was 68.63%, the weekly output of organic silicon was 45,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.89%, and the inventory was 44,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.56%. It is expected that the price of organic silicon will fluctuate weakly [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, the main futures contract of polysilicon rose significantly. Spot prices are under pressure. Leading manufacturers maintain the price of dense re-feeding material above 53 yuan/kg, and downstream mainly purchase special doping materials at 49 - 50 yuan/kg. Considering the coming dry season, it is estimated that the polysilicon production schedule will drop to 115,000 tons in November. As of October 30, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 261,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3,000 tons, and the raw material inventory of downstream crystal pulling factories was 218,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4,000 tons. In November, polysilicon officially enters the critical point of the game between policy and fundamentals. If the platform company is successfully established and the storage details are implemented, the polysilicon price is expected to stabilize or even rise. Otherwise, the spot price may be under pressure [3][15]. - **Silicon Wafer**: This week, the price of silicon wafers decreased. The decline is related to overproduction. It is estimated that silicon wafer enterprises will reduce production from November. Whether the silicon wafer price can stabilize depends on whether the silicon material on the cost side continues to strongly support the price and the production reduction plan in November [16]. - **Battery Cell**: This week, the price of battery cells decreased. Overseas demand declined, and the mainstream transaction price of M10 battery cells continued to drop. The production schedule decline is not obvious. Due to the exemption of basic tariffs in India for Southeast Asian origins, the M10 battery is under pressure. The high price of G12 batteries has not been widely accepted by the component side, and the price is expected to decline. The G12R model continues to have an oversupply situation, and the future price is still not optimistic. Battery factories are under increasing cost pressure due to the sharp rise in silver paste prices and are now near cash losses [17]. - **Component**: This week, the component price remained basically stable. Some centralized procurement projects have a demand for high-power components above 700W, and leading component factories have raised their quotes. It is estimated that the domestic component production schedule will be 44.4GW in November, a month-on-month decrease of 1GW. There are concerns that the component production schedule will drop significantly in December. It is expected that the component price will fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether there are demand-side policies in the future [18]. 3. Investment Advice - **Industrial Silicon**: After the previous hedging, it is more cost-effective to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [4][19]. - **Polysilicon**: Those who hold long positions can continue to hold, while those chasing long positions face greater risks. They can consider buying call options to participate in the subsequent policy game [4][19]. 4. Hot News Summary - **Hoshine Silicon Industry**: On October 30, it released its Q3 2025 report. The company achieved an operating income of 5.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.51%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 75.6675 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 84.12%. Although it is still in negative growth year-on-year, the single-quarter profit index has turned positive compared with the loss situation in the first half of the year [20]. - **Daqo New Energy**: In Q3, the company achieved an operating income of 1.7726423 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.75%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 73.479 million yuan. Based on the current market dynamics, product prices, and market trends, combined with the progress of the annual routine maintenance plan, the company expects the polysilicon production in Q4 to be 39,500 - 42,500 tons, and the expected annual production in 2025 to be 121,000 - 124,000 tons [20]. - **Longi Green Energy**: On October 30, it released its Q3 2025 report. The company's operating income in the first three quarters of 2025 was 50.914 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.10%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 3.403 billion yuan [21]. 5. Industry Chain High-Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon**: Relevant charts show the spot prices, weekly production, and inventory data of industrial silicon [23][26][29]. - **Organic Silicon**: Relevant charts show the spot price, weekly profit, factory inventory, and weekly production data of DMC in organic silicon [33][34]. - **Polysilicon**: Relevant charts show the spot price, weekly gross profit, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production data of polysilicon [36][39]. - **Silicon Wafer**: Relevant charts show the spot price, profit calculation, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production data of silicon wafers [41][46]. - **Battery Cell**: Relevant charts show the spot price, profit calculation, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production data of battery cells [47][52][53]. - **Component**: Relevant charts show the spot price, profit calculation, finished product inventory, and enterprise monthly production data of components [55][61][62].

Report Overview - Report Title: Industrial Silicon Monthly Report - Date: November 01, 2025 - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core Viewpoint: Industrial silicon lacks continuous policy support. The supply-demand imbalance persists, with high inventory levels. The price of the 01 contract is expected to operate cautiously and strongly in the range of 8,500 - 10,000 yuan/ton, but the resistance to rebound above 9,000 yuan/ton increases. Unilateral operation has an unfavorable risk-reward ratio, so it is advisable to wait and see [5][20][21]. 1. Industrial Silicon Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Market Review - Price Fluctuations: The fluctuations in industrial silicon futures and spot prices have significantly decreased. Without policy support, the prices have reached a stalemate. In October, the spot prices remained stable, and the futures prices fluctuated within a range. The monthly closing price of Si2511 was 8,700 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.69%, and the trading volume was 2.444 million lots, with an open interest of 7,516 lots. The monthly closing price of Si2601 was 9,100 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 1.45%, and the trading volume was 2.616 million lots, with an open interest of 229,000 lots, a net increase of 135,000 lots [19]. 1.2 November Outlook - Policy and Demand: Industrial silicon lacks continuous policy support, and the anti-"involution" production cuts in polysilicon are actually negative for the demand side of industrial silicon. The production cuts in the later fourth quarter need further observation [20]. - Supply and Demand: In October, the expected production of industrial silicon was 420,000 tons, while the total demand was 400,250 tons. The supply-demand imbalance has not been reversed. As of the end of October, the industry inventory was 447,700 tons, and the futures inventory was 237,000 tons, totaling 684,700 tons. High inventory accumulation is difficult to reverse [20]. - Price Forecast: The 01 contract price is expected to operate cautiously and strongly in the range of 8,500 - 10,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance to rebound above 9,000 yuan/ton increases. It is advisable to continue using the idea of bottom support and rebound at the lower edge of the range, but unilateral operation has an unfavorable risk-reward ratio [20][21]. 2. Supply Side - Production Statistics: From January to September 2025, the cumulative production of industrial silicon was 2.9345 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 16.89%, with an average monthly production of 326,100 tons. The northern regions, except Xinjiang, showed a significant production increase trend, while the southwestern regions continued to reduce production [23]. - Profit and Production Willingness: The profit window for industrial silicon has opened, and enterprises have a strong willingness to increase production. In October, the single-ton cost was 9,093.38 yuan/ton, and the single-ton profit was 179.71 yuan/ton, a slight increase from the previous month. The power price in the southwestern regions is about to rise, which will support the silicon price [23]. - October Production: In October, industrial silicon production continued to grow. The anti-involution policy did not lead to the elimination of backward production capacity. As of the end of October, the total number of furnaces was 796, the number of operating furnaces was 320, and the operating rate was 40.20%. The weekly production gradually increased, mainly due to the resumption of production in large factories in Xinjiang [24]. 3. Demand Side 3.1 Import and Export - Export: In September, the export volume of industrial silicon decreased slightly. From January to September, the cumulative export volume was 561,600 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.55%, with an average monthly export volume of 62,400 tons [37]. - Import: From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 8,601.55 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 63.55% [37]. 3.2 Organic Silicon Demand - Industry Status: In 2024, the effective production capacity of organic silicon reached 3.53 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.72%; the production was 2.5213 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.75%, and the capacity utilization rate was 71.43%. The supply-demand imbalance in the organic silicon market has not been reversed, and the spot price is still below the cost line [38]. - Demand for Industrial Silicon: The demand for industrial silicon from the organic silicon market remains stable. From January to September, the cumulative production of organic silicon (DMC) was 1.978 million tons, and the demand for industrial silicon was 1.0286 million tons. The monthly production in October is expected to remain at around 220,000 tons, with little change in the overall demand for industrial silicon [39]. 3.3 Polysilicon Demand - Profit and Production: Since the end of June, policy support has opened up profit margins for polysilicon enterprises. In October, the average production cost of polysilicon was 41,443 yuan/ton, and the theoretical net profit per ton was as high as 9,157 yuan/ton. High profits and industry self-discipline may weaken the actual effect of anti-involution production cuts [48]. - Production Forecast: From January to October, the cumulative production of polysilicon was 1.0839 million tons. In October, the domestic polysilicon production is expected to reach 137,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.2%. According to the enterprise production plan, the monthly production in November - December is expected to fall back to 125,000 - 130,000 tons [48][49]. - Inventory Situation: The supply-demand mismatch in the polysilicon market persists, and the spot market continues to accumulate inventory. As of October 30, the spot inventory was 273,040 tons, a 13.33% increase from the previous month. It is expected that the inventory accumulation speed will slow down in November and December, but the industry inventory at the end of 2025 is likely to exceed 400,000 tons [49].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific trading suggestions for different sectors and varieties: - **Financial Sector** - **Equity Index Futures**: Try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread for follow - up upside potential [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Go long on pullbacks for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy for the cash - futures strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: For gold, there is pressure for a further decline; for silver, it is in a volatile consolidation. Trading suggestions are based on price trends [3]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Steel**: Reduce long positions appropriately and hold the long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Close long positions and observe, and consider the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Go long on pullbacks and hold the long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: Pay attention to the support around 87,000 [3]. - **Tin**: Adopt a low - buying strategy on pullbacks [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Go short in the short term [3]. - **Urea, PX, PTA, etc.**: Adopt different strategies such as reducing long positions, short - selling on rallies, and spread trading according to different varieties [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Soybeans**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract may test the support at 8,800 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: It is in a bottom - oscillating state around 5,400 [3]. - **Cotton**: It is in a range - bound and upward - trending state, paying attention to the pressure around 13,800 [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors** - **Glass**: Look for short - term long opportunities based on the spot market [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in a relatively strong state, with the main contract reference range of 83,000 - 87,000 [3]. 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: Key factors such as the meeting between Chinese and US leaders, the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, and the clarification of bond - fund redemption fees have an impact on the market. Risk - preference - enhancing factors are gradually materializing, and uncertainties in the market are decreasing [3]. - **Sector - specific Views** - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations; treasury bond futures are on an upward trend as negative factors are gradually digested; precious metals are affected by geopolitical and trade factors [3]. - **Black Metals Sector**: Supply and demand factors such as production, transportation, and inventory levels affect the price trends of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector**: Prices are affected by factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and technical levels [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Supply - demand expectations, cost support, and inventory levels are the main factors affecting prices [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Factors such as procurement, supply pressure, and seasonal characteristics affect the price trends of various agricultural products [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors**: Macro - events and fundamental factors affect the price trends of glass, rubber, and new - energy products [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Financial Sector** - **Equity Index Futures**: After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan draft, the market has a short - term pullback after reaching a high. It is recommended to try light - selling put options or constructing a bull call spread [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: As negative factors such as bond - fund redemption fees and central - bank bond - buying uncertainties are gradually digested, the bond market sentiment is improving. It is recommended to go long on pullbacks and consider the positive arbitrage strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is under pressure to decline due to factors such as the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and geopolitical concerns; silver is in a volatile consolidation [3]. - **Black Metals Sector** - **Steel**: The increase in apparent demand and the alleviation of inventory pressure lead to suggestions of reducing long positions and holding arbitrage positions [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The decline in shipping and arrivals, the increase in port inventory, and the sharp drop in molten - iron production lead to suggestions of closing long positions and considering arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The strength of coking - coal prices and the cost support provided by coking coal lead to suggestions of going long on pullbacks and holding arbitrage positions [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Sector** - **Copper**: After the realization of positive expectations, the price is in a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to the support level [3]. - **Tin**: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate outlook, it is recommended to buy on pullbacks [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Although the macro - sentiment has eased and inventory has decreased, the increase in OPEC production limits the rebound height. It is recommended to go short in the short term [3]. - **Urea, PX, PTA, etc.**: Due to weak supply - demand expectations and limited cost support, different trading strategies are recommended for different varieties [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Soybeans**: Supported by China's increased confidence in purchasing US soybeans, hold long positions [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract may test the support level [3]. - **Sugar**: It is in a bottom - oscillating state due to abundant overseas supply [3]. - **Cotton**: With the solidification of new - cotton costs, it is in a range - bound and upward - trending state [3]. - **Special and New Energy Sectors** - **Glass**: Affected by macro - events, pay attention to short - term long opportunities based on the spot market [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: With the upward shift of the price center and the realization of demand benefits, it is in a relatively strong state [3].