Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Unilateral - Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - commodity: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4][5] - Polysilicon: Unilateral - Short - term range trading; Inter - period: None; Inter - commodity: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [9] Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: The current fundamentals have little change, and the industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are policies to promote capacity reduction, the futures price may rise as the current valuation is low [3]. - Polysilicon: The new energy consumption index has a long - term positive impact but limited short - term influence. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and market reality, with large fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [9]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On September 16, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price opened high and closed low. The main contract 2511 opened at 9000 yuan/ton and closed at 8915 yuan/ton, a change of 0.85% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 287184 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49872 lots, a decrease of 33 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The prices in regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and Xinjiang rose. The 97 - silicon price was slightly adjusted upward. The willingness of northern silicon enterprises to sell was positive, and their quotes were more advantageous than those of spot - futures traders. The increase in spot trading was less than that of the futures market [1]. - **Consumption Side**: The price of organic silicon DMC was stable. After two weeks of low - level operation, downstream enterprises had completed rigid restocking. Monomer factories, supported by pre - sold orders, were more willing to increase prices to stimulate orders and repair profit margins [2]. Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On September 16, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 opened high and closed low, with wide - range fluctuations. It opened at 55600 yuan/ton and closed at 53670 yuan/ton, a 0.51% change from the previous trading day. The position was 127779 lots, and the trading volume was 316394 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, while the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 21.90 (with a 3.79% change), and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.55GW (a - 1.78% change). The weekly polysilicon output was 31200.00 tons (a 3.31% change), and the silicon wafer output was 13.88GW (a 0.73% change) [6][7]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery Chip, and Component Markets**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery chips, and components were relatively stable [7]. - **Policy Impact**: The new energy consumption standard for polysilicon was more stringent. In the long run, it could control production capacity, but in the short term, the impact on supply might be limited as it was only a draft for comments [8]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - The spot price followed the futures price and increased slightly. The current fundamentals had little change. The futures market was mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Attention should be paid to whether there were policies for capacity withdrawal. If so, the futures price might rise [3]. Polysilicon - The supply - demand fundamentals were average. The new energy consumption index had a long - term positive impact. The futures market was affected by policies and market reality, with large fluctuations. Participants should pay attention to risk management, follow the implementation of policies and the downward transmission of spot prices. In the medium - to - long - term, it was suitable to buy on dips [9].

| 象胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年9月17日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 9月16日 | 9月15日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 15150 | 15000 | 150 | 1.00% | | | 全乳基元 | -890 | -ddc | 105 | 10.55% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 15150 | 14950 | 200 | 1.34% | | | 非标价差 | -890 | -1045 | 155 | 14.83% | | | 杯胶：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 52.20 | 52.55 | -0.35 | -0.67% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 56.20 | 56.00 | 0.20 | 0.36% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 13200 | 13200 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of the industrial silicon industry shows a regional differentiation trend of "steady production increase in the northwest and capacity shrinkage in the southwest." The actual production progress of new capacity in Xinjiang needs to be tracked next week [2]. - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. The current industry inventory is still at a high level, and inventory digestion faces certain pressure [2]. - The spot price of industrial silicon continued to rise today, and it is expected to continue to rise in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices. If the price falls below 8,200 yuan later, one can consider medium - and long - term long positions at low prices [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,915 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 115 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 287,184 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 3,764 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 59,221 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 17,194 lots; the warehouse receipts of GIE were 49,905 lots [2]. - The closing price of the December contract for industrial silicon was - 370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the spread between the November and December contracts for industrial silicon was - 370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of the Si main contract was 385 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the DMC spot price was 11,020 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,860 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton [2]. - The average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 366,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,600 tons; the social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [2]. - The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.45 US dollars/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 US dollars/kg; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged from the previous week [2]. - The monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 24,908.89 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 861.29 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 72.71%, a week - on - week increase of 2.12 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.536 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 133,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. Industry News - The CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index tracked by the Photovoltaic Leading ETF (159609) rose 1.62%. Among the heavy - weight stocks, Canadian Solar rose 5.5%, Ginlong Technologies rose 3.8%, Deye Technology rose 3.6%, Junda Co., Ltd. rose 3.3%, Shangneng Electric rose 3.1%, Sungrow Power Supply rose 7.3%, LONGi Green Energy rose 1.0%, TBEA Co., Ltd. rose 0.3%, and Tongwei Co., Ltd. rose 0.8% [2]. - From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, as the wet season deepens, the electricity price advantage in the southwest region becomes more obvious, stimulating a significant acceleration in the resumption of production of silicon plants [2]. - On the demand side, the three major downstream industries of industrial silicon (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) have a flat total demand for industrial silicon [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for polysilicon; short - term range operation for polysilicon [5][7] - Inter - period: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][5][7] - Inter - commodity: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][5][7] - Spot - futures: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][5][7] - Options: None for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][5][7] Core View - Industrial silicon's short - term supply - demand fundamentals are average. The intraday sharp rise and then fall of the industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by the rise of coking coal. The short - term industrial silicon futures are affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are policies to promote, the futures may have room to rise as the current valuation is low [2] - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average. The current futures are affected by the anti - involution policy and weak reality. The policy is still in progress, and the futures fluctuate greatly. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to go long on polysilicon at low prices [7] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On September 15, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was strong. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,725 yuan/ton and closed at 8,800 yuan/ton, up 0.86% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 290,948 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49,905 lots, down 93 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,300 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was also 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai regions rose slightly, and the price of 97 silicon was slightly adjusted up [1] - The quotation of silicone DMC was 10,700 - 10,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The monomer factory's pre - sales orders were sufficient, and the inventory pressure was not large. Downstream enterprises' procurement rhythm remained unchanged, mainly replenishing stocks at low prices, with limited support for the market. Silicone is expected to stabilize in the short term [1] Polysilicon - On September 15, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 53,630 yuan/ton and closed at 53,545 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 132,212 lots (134,898 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 237,981 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 49.10 - 54.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 48.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 21.90 (a month - on - month change of 3.79%), the silicon wafer inventory was 16.55GW (a month - on - month change of - 1.78%), the weekly polysilicon output was 31,200 tons (a month - on - month change of 3.31%), and the silicon wafer output was 13.88GW (a month - on - month change of 0.73%) [4] - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.33 yuan/piece (up 0.05 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.68 yuan/piece (up 0.05 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.43 yuan/piece (up 0.05 yuan/piece) [4] - Silicon wafer enterprises may raise prices. N - type silicon wafers - 183mm may rise to 1.35 yuan/piece, N - type silicon wafers - 210R to 1.45 yuan/piece, and N - type silicon wafers - 210mm to 1.7 yuan/piece. The price increase of 183mm is likely to be accepted by downstream, while the other two sizes need to pay attention to the transaction situation [6] - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.32 yuan/W (up 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.31 yuan/W (up 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan/W [6] - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [6] Strategy Industrial Silicon - The spot price rose slightly following the futures. The short - term supply - demand fundamentals are average. The short - term industrial silicon futures are affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. Attention should be paid to whether there are policies for capacity withdrawal. If there are policies to promote, the futures may have room to rise [2] Polysilicon - The supply - demand fundamentals are average. The current futures are affected by the anti - involution policy and weak reality. Participants should pay attention to risk management. They need to continuously follow up on the implementation of policies and the downward transmission of spot prices. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to go long on polysilicon at low prices. Short - term range operation is recommended [7]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The fundamentals of natural rubber have changed little. The upstream cost side still provides support, while downstream players are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and the possible impact of the La Nina phenomenon on supply. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider short - selling; if not, the rubber price is expected to remain high [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 15, the price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from September 12. The full - latex basis decreased by 14.37%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 1.34%. The price of cup rubber in the international market decreased by 0.67%, while the price of glue increased by 0.36%. Some domestic raw material prices remained unchanged [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4.46%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 75.00%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.91% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, Thailand's production increased by 1.61%, Indonesia's by 12.09%, India's decreased by 2.17%, and China's decreased by 1.27%. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. Domestic tire production decreased by 8.16%, while tire exports increased by 10.51%. The total import of natural rubber increased by 2.47%, and the import of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 5.40%. The production cost of some dry rubbers in Thailand decreased, and the production margin of STR20 dry rubber increased by 16.72% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.64%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 1.30%. The inbound and outbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general - trade warehouses changed to varying degrees [1]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Soda Ash**: The overall sentiment of the commodity market has improved, and soda ash has rebounded due to macro - sentiment. However, the fundamental oversupply problem still exists. In the medium - term, downstream demand will remain at the previous rigid - demand level. After the traditional summer maintenance season, with high supply, if there is no actual production capacity exit or load reduction, inventory will face further pressure. It is advisable to short on rebounds [3]. - **Glass**: The glass market has rebounded due to the improvement of the macro - atmosphere. Last week, the spot market had good transactions and inventory decreased. However, the inventory in the middle reaches has not been significantly reduced. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and the industry needs to clear excess capacity. Short - term: stay on the sidelines; medium - term: pay attention to the actual demand in the peak season [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract increased by 0.16%, and the glass 2509 contract decreased by 2.12% [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract increased by 0.66%, and the soda ash 2509 contract decreased by 0.37% [3]. - **Supply**: The soda ash开工率 increased by 1.24%, and the weekly production increased by 1.25%. The float - glass daily melting volume increased by 0.38%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.33%, the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 1.35%, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 2.70%. The glass factory's soda ash inventory days remained unchanged [3]. - **Real - estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of new construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [3]. Group 3: Log Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The log market shows a pattern of "weak supply and demand, stable prices, and slightly decreasing inventory". The core contradiction lies in the game between weak demand and fluctuating supply. Prices are temporarily stable with cost support. Follow - up attention should be paid to the improvement of shipment volume in the seasonal peak season. Currently, the 09 contract has new registered warehouse receipts, and the spot market pressure has increased. It is recommended to go long on dips [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 15, the log 2509 contract decreased by 0.39%, the log 2511 contract increased by 0.81%, and the log 2601 contract decreased by 1.15%. The prices of some spot logs remained unchanged [4]. - **Supply**: In August, the port shipping volume decreased by 3.87%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 6.38%. As of September 12, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 302 million cubic meters, an increase of 8 million cubic meters from the previous week. The expected number of New Zealand log ships arriving at 13 Chinese ports this week decreased by 50% compared with last week, and the arrival volume also decreased by 50% [4]. - **Demand**: As of September 12, the daily log outbound volume was 6.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.17 million cubic meters from the previous week [4]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints The cost of industrial silicon is expected to rise as raw material prices increase and the electricity price in the southwest region will go up during the dry season. Although the current output of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance. Considering the possible impact of the polysilicon enterprise self - discipline meeting next week and the increasing demand for downstream replenishment before the National Day, the price of industrial silicon may rise slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips, but also be aware of the inventory and warehouse - receipt pressure. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Main - contract Basis**: On September 15, the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 12.09%. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 122.22%. The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon increased by 0.58%, and the basis decreased by 0.76% [5]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 99.77%, the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 1750.00%, the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 98.63%, the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 100.00%, and the 2602 - 2603 spread remained unchanged [5]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon output increased by 14.01%, Xinjiang's by 12.91%, Yunnan's by 41.19%, and Sichuan's by 10.72%. The national开工率 increased by 6.20%, Xinjiang's by 15.25%, Yunnan's by 44.09%, and Sichuan's by 19.83%. The output of organic silicon DMC increased by 11.66%, the output of polysilicon increased by 23.31%, the output of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 1.60%, and the export volume of industrial silicon increased by 8.32% [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.93%, the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.62%, the Sichuan factory - warehouse inventory remained unchanged, the social inventory increased by 0.37%, the contract inventory decreased by 0.19%, and the non - warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 0.86% [5]. Group 5: Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints In the short term, the market is more focused on the expectation of policy implementation in September, and the market is prone to rise and difficult to fall. Fundamentally, the overall supply reduction in September is not obvious as some factories resume production to make up for the supply reduction. The silicon wafer production schedule has increased slightly month - on - month, and there may be a slight inventory build - up in September. The downstream has accepted the price increase of polysilicon, and the spot transmission mechanism is smooth. In the future, the market pays less attention to fundamentals and more to policy expectations, so the price fluctuation risk is high. It is advisable to be cautious and follow the situation of the polysilicon enterprise self - discipline meeting next week [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On September 15, the average price of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type silicon wafer prices increased, with the 210mm silicon wafer increasing by 3.07% and the 210R silicon wafer increasing by 3.62%. Some battery and component prices remained unchanged [6]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract decreased by 0.12%. The spreads between different contracts changed significantly, such as the month - on - first - continuous spread increasing by 100.22% [6]. - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The weekly silicon wafer output increased by 0.73%, and the weekly polysilicon output increased by 3.31%. The monthly polysilicon output increased by 23.31%, the import volume increased by 40.30%, the export volume increased by 5.96%, and the net export volume decreased by 14.92%. The monthly silicon wafer output increased by 6.24%, the import volume decreased by 15.41%, the export volume increased by 11.37%, and the net export volume increased by 15.56%. The silicon wafer demand increased by 0.14% [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.79%, the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 1.78%, and the polysilicon contract increased by 0.38% [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The industrial silicon price is in high - level consolidation. The supply side has potential disturbances, and the short - term price may maintain high - level consolidation, but there is a risk of a price drop if polysilicon enterprises implement production cuts. The supply of polysilicon is expected to increase slightly, and the price is also in high - level consolidation. The high inventory of downstream raw materials makes it difficult to have concentrated restocking in the short term, which may suppress the price [1]. 3. Summary by Content Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) was stable at 9,500 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.63% to 8,800 yuan/ton. The prices of various types of industrial silicon in different regions (such as Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, and Sichuan) remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: As the silicon price rises, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise start - up rates. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, but some silicon material plants have复产 plans; the organic silicon market has supply fluctuations, and silicon alloy enterprises purchase as needed with low inventory - building willingness [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt range - bound operations, buy out - of - the - money put options, and consider participating in the reverse spread of contracts 2511 and 2512 [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.12% to 53,545 yuan/ton. The prices of N - type silicon wafers (210mm, 210R, 183mm) increased, while the prices of some battery cells and components remained flat [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Silicon material enterprises continue to cut production, but some may have new capacity put into operation, with a slight increase in expected output. The trading volume in the polysilicon market has increased significantly, and inventory has decreased. However, the terminal demand pressure is large, and the component price increase faces resistance [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, consider lightly buying on dips [1]. Industry News - On September 11, the IPO application of China Power Construction New Energy Group Co., Ltd. was accepted. The company plans to raise 9 billion yuan and drive a total investment of 48.481 billion yuan in wind and solar power projects, with an expected new installed capacity of 8.46 million kilowatts [1]. - On September 12, the Ningxia Development and Reform Commission solicited opinions on establishing a generation - side capacity price mechanism. The capacity price standards for coal - fired power units and grid - side new energy storage will be 100 yuan/kilowatt - year from October to December 2025 and 165 yuan/kilowatt - year from January 2026 [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability in the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as economic indicators, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper showed a positive line oscillation. Spot copper rose to 80,940 yuan, with premiums in Shanghai and Guangdong on the last trading day being 80 and 20 yuan respectively. The refined - scrap price difference widened to 2,000 yuan. SMM copper social inventory increased by 9,900 tons to 154,200 tons over the weekend. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and pay attention to the premium fluctuations of the call option with an exercise price of 82,000 yuan for the 2510 contract [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum slightly corrected today, with the spot discount widening in various regions. The downstream start - up continued to pick up seasonally, and the aluminum ingot inventory is likely to remain low this year. However, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not yet shown an inflection point, increasing by 11,000 tons compared to last Thursday. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, with oversupply and falling prices [2] Zinc - LME zinc inventory is at a low level of 50,500 tons, with a 0 - 3 month premium of $30.17 per ton. London zinc rebounded to the high - level range at the beginning of the year. Shanghai zinc is still dragged down by weak fundamentals and fluctuates narrowly above 22,000 yuan. The import loss of zinc compared to the spot exceeds 3,300 yuan per ton, and the expectation of zinc ingot exports is strengthening [3] Lead and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel oscillated at a low level. The short - covering retreat was triggered by the speculation of interest - rate cut expectations. The upstream price support of nickel has rebounded slightly, and the price level of the nickel industry chain has been pushed up. The pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 41,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 29,200 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 16,000 tons to 919,000 tons [6] Tin - Shanghai tin showed a positive line oscillation, with the spot tin price dropping to 273,300 yuan. Overseas, although the positions are still relatively concentrated, the position - volume risk has decreased. Domestic leading production capacity is under maintenance. Technically, there is resistance at 275,000 yuan for the domestic market and $35,000 for the overseas market. It is not recommended to chase long positions [7] Lithium Carbonate - The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 138,500 tons. The smelter inventory decreased by 3,200 tons to 36,000 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 58,000 tons. The price of lithium carbonate has a low - level support, and a short - term bullish view is taken [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon was boosted by coal - related news, reaching 9,000 yuan per ton during the day and then falling back to close at 8,800 yuan per ton. In September, the supply - side output is expected to increase by 5% month - on - month, while the downstream polysilicon and organic silicon industries are expected to have a slight decline in output. The short - term is expected to maintain a volatile operation [9] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon closed slightly down at 53,500 yuan per ton. Only a few enterprises have implemented production cuts, and the reduction range is limited. The main contract of polysilicon can be expected to oscillate in the range of 50,000 - 55,000 yuan per ton [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market conditions, important news, logical analysis, and trading strategies of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, casting aluminum alloy, electrolytic aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin. The market for each metal is influenced by factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and geopolitical events. The investment opportunities and risks vary among different metals, and specific trading strategies are proposed accordingly [3][8][12]. Summary by Metal Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed up 0.26% at $3643.06 per ounce, and London silver closed up 1.58% at $42.16 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.14% to 97.68, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.027%, and the RMB against the US dollar fell 0.09% to 7.1246 [3]. - **Important News**: US inflation expectations and consumer confidence index were released, and there were Trump administration dynamics and high probabilities of Fed rate cuts [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US labor market's vulnerability and inflation data have strengthened the market's expectation of multiple Fed rate cuts this year [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider reducing positions on rallies or taking profits near the 5 - day moving average; wait and see for arbitrage and options [6]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE copper 2510 contract closed at 80810 yuan per ton, up 0.19%. LME copper closed at $10064.5 per ton, up 0.07%. LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 15.39 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 653 tons to 31.04 million tons [8]. - **Important News**: There were Sino - US trade talks, and Grasberg copper mine had an accident [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US inflation and labor market data, along with supply disruptions and changes in inventory, have affected the copper market. The supply is tight, and the consumption shows a "not - so - prosperous peak season" [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider going long on dips, pay attention to the support at $10000 per ton; conduct inter - market positive arbitrage; wait and see for options [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2511 contract fell 11 yuan to 2897 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines [12]. - **Important News**: There were delays in Indian bauxite mining projects, changes in inventory, and cost and profit data [12][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus in the alumina market is becoming more obvious, with prices falling both at home and abroad. However, beware of the impact of "anti - involution" sentiment [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to continue to be weak; wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 10 to 20580 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [17]. - **Important News**: Policy changes affected the regenerative aluminum industry, and there were cost and inventory data [18][19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy changes have affected the supply of scrap aluminum, while the downstream demand is increasing. The market supply is tightening, and the price is expected to be stable and strong [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be strong; wait and see for arbitrage and options [21][22]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE aluminum 2510 contract rose 45 yuan to 21075 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [24]. - **Important News**: There were Sino - US trade talks, changes in inventory, and new electrolytic aluminum projects in Indonesia [24]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market's expectation of Fed rate cuts has strengthened, and the supply - demand shortage pattern supports the aluminum price [26][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short - term; conduct AL10 - 12 positive arbitrage; wait and see for options [29]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc rose 1.76% to $2956 per ton, and SHFE zinc 2510 rose 0.09% to 22300 yuan per ton [31]. - **Important News**: There were changes in zinc ore processing fees [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly, and the consumption is flat. Overseas, LME is in a de - stocking phase, which supports the LME zinc price [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price may be strong in the short - term; consider shorting on rallies in the medium - long term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [32][33]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead rose 1.18% to $2019 per ton, and SHFE lead 2510 rose 1.03% to 17140 yuan per ton [35]. - **Important News**: The operating rate of recycled lead smelters decreased [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The reduction in domestic recycled lead supply and the pre - holiday stocking demand may push up the lead price, but beware of the impact of lead imports [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price is expected to be strong in the short - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel rose $160 to $15380 per ton, and SHFE nickel rose 820 to 122010 yuan per ton [38]. - **Important News**: There were no major impacts on nickel mining operations in Indonesia, and there were new investment talks for nickel smelting projects [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is optimistic about the macro - environment, but the supply increase in the peak season and the increase in LME inventory put pressure on the price [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to be volatile and strong; wait and see for arbitrage and options [40]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The SS2511 contract rose 15 to 12945 yuan per ton [43]. - **Important News**: Stainless steel enterprises are undergoing low - carbon emission transformation, and there are new global green trade rules [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's possible rate cut, the "15th Five - Year Plan", and the approaching consumption peak season support the price [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless steel price is expected to be volatile and strong; wait and see for arbitrage [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures contract closed at 8745 yuan per ton, and the spot price rose 100 yuan per ton [47]. - **Important News**: There were changes in coal prices and industrial silicon production and inventory [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand balance will shift to a slight surplus, and the price may decline slightly but with limited amplitude [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline in the short - term; consider going long after a sufficient decline; sell out - of - the - money put options; conduct reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts [51]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: No specific market review information provided. - **Important News**: The cost and demand in the silicon wafer segment increased, and there were price increases [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: The long - term price trend is upward, but in the short - term, there are both positive and negative factors [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term; buy on dips in the long - term; conduct reverse arbitrage for 2511 and 2512 contracts; hold out - of - the - money put options [55]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The 2511 contract rose 500 to 71160 yuan per ton, and spot prices fell [57]. - **Important News**: There were policies to promote automobile consumption and a new lithium carbonate project in Argentina [57][59]. - **Logic Analysis**: The new automobile industry policy may boost the demand for lithium carbonate, but the price lacks strong driving forces [60]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be in a wide - range shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [61][62]. Tin - **Market Review**: SHFE tin closed at 274160 yuan per ton, up 0.48%. Spot prices rose, but the trading volume was low [62][63]. - **Important News**: There were Sino - US trade talks and Peruvian tin export data [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand improvement is slow. The inventory has increased [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term; wait and see for options [64].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on non - ferrous metals released on September 15, 2025, covering multiple non - ferrous metal varieties including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The overall macro - environment shows that the market has increased expectations for three interest rate cuts within the year due to factors such as the US CPI in August and weak non - farm payroll data. Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper supply is tight, while alumina is in an oversupply situation. [8] Group 4: Copper Market Review - The Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80,940 yuan/ton, up 0.35%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced positions by 1,572 lots to 520,900 lots. The spot market showed weakening procurement sentiment, with different regions having different changes in spot premiums. [2] Key Information - As of September 15, the national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.99 tons to 15.42 tons. The planned merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources may create the world's largest copper mine in the early 2030s. China's new energy vehicle production in August 2025 increased significantly year - on - year. The average export benchmark price of copper concentrate in Indonesia in the second half of September increased by 2.29% compared to the first half. [3][4][5] Logic Analysis - Macroscopically, the market expects interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, copper supply is tight due to production accidents and policies, and consumption shows a marginal weakening trend. [8] Trading Strategies - For single - sided trading, consider laying out long positions after a pull - back and pay attention to the support level of $10,000/ton. Hold cross - market positive arbitrage positions and stay on the sidelines for options. [8] Group 5: Alumina Market Review - The alumina 2601 contract rose by 13 yuan to 2,935 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions decreased. [10] Key Information - India postponed the approval of an alumina project, which may delay the second - phase project of a factory. The weighted average full cost of alumina decreased, and the industry average profit increased. The national alumina production capacity and inventory situation changed. [11][12][14] Logic Analysis - Alumina supply and demand remain in an oversupply situation, with a weak fundamental trend, but beware of the impact of "anti - involution" sentiment on prices. [15] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading is expected to continue the weak operation pattern. Stay on the sidelines for both arbitrage and options trading. [16][17] Group 6: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract rose by 5 yuan to 21,025 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions decreased. [19] Key Information - From January to August, real estate development data showed a decline. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and some overseas electrolytic aluminum projects had new developments. [19][21] Logic Analysis - Macroscopically, the market expects interest rate cuts, and overseas and domestic fundamentals support the price. Although there may be short - term inventory fluctuations, the annual supply - demand shortage pattern remains. [22] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and continue to be bullish on pull - backs. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [23][24] Group 7: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell by 25 to 20,545 yuan/ton. Spot prices in most regions increased. [26] Key Information - The policy of standardizing investment promotion affects the recycled aluminum industry, with some regions having more obvious impacts. The weighted average full cost of the ADC12 industry increased, and the theoretical profit expanded. The exchange will start the standard warehouse receipt generation business for cast aluminum alloy futures. [26][29][30] Logic Analysis - The policy affects the recycled aluminum industry, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and downstream demand is increasing. The alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and strong. [31] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Follow the upward trend of aluminum prices, and be bullish after pull - backs. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [32][33] Group 8: Zinc Market Review - The Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.13% to 22,310 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index reduced positions by 1,484 lots to 221,800 lots. The spot market had stable quotes and weak downstream demand. [35] Key Information - Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and Peru's zinc concentrate production in July 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. [36] Logic Analysis - In September, domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly, and consumption is weak. Overseas, LME inventory is decreasing, which supports the LME zinc price. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may rise. [39] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Zinc prices may be strong in the short term, and consider laying out short positions on rallies in the medium - to - long term. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [40] Group 9: Lead Market Review - The Shanghai lead 2510 rose 1.15% to 17,160 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index reduced positions by 3,021 lots to 91,400 lots. The spot market had different trading situations. [42] Key Information - Domestic lead ingot inventory increased, and the price of imported lead ore was at a loss. Some domestic smelters may advance winter storage plans. [43][44] Logic Analysis - Domestic secondary lead smelters are reducing production due to losses, and downstream pre - holiday stocking may support prices. However, if the lead ingot import window opens, prices may fall. [45] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The Shanghai lead price is expected to be strong in the short term, but beware of price drops after the inflow of imported lead ingots. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [47] Group 10: Nickel Market Review - The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2510 rose 1,390 to 122,580 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 690 lots. Spot premiums changed slightly. [49] Key Information - The land seizure incident in Indonesia had no major impact on nickel production. Vale Indonesia is in talks for three nickel smelter projects, and Zhongwei Co., Ltd.'s nickel smelting capacity in Indonesia is ramping up. [50] Logic Analysis - The market is concerned about the interest rate cut amplitude. Although it is the peak demand season, supply also increases, and LME inventory is rising, putting pressure on prices. [51] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [53] Group 11: Stainless Steel Market Review - The main SS2511 contract rose 155 to 13,070 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 3,671 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given. [55] Key Information - Many stainless steel enterprises are carrying out low - carbon emission transformation, and global green trade rules are being reconstructed. [56] Logic Analysis - Macro - factors and the rise in nickel prices support stainless steel prices. With the approaching of the consumption peak season, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. [56] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage trading. [57][58] Group 12: Tin Market Review - The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 273,960 yuan/ton, up 1,110 yuan/ton or 0.41%. The spot price decreased slightly, and the terminal consumption situation was different in different industries. [60] Key Information - China's new energy vehicle production in August 2025 increased significantly year - on - year. Indonesia's refined tin export volume in August decreased by 49% year - on - year. [61][62] Logic Analysis - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates. Tin ore supply is tight, and demand may be postponed. LME and domestic inventories are increasing. [63] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the increase in inventory restricts the upward space. Stay on the sidelines for options trading. [64] Group 13: Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures main contract rose 0.86% to 8,800 yuan/ton after an intraday high - low fluctuation. Spot prices in Xinjiang increased by 50 yuan/ton, while other regions remained stable. [65][66] Key Information - An important article will be published emphasizing the construction of a unified national market. The production and inventory data of industrial silicon and its downstream products are given. [67][69] Logic Analysis - As leading manufacturers resume production, the supply - demand of industrial silicon will change from tight balance to slight surplus. Although the price may pull back, the cost increase and low inventory will limit the decline. [69] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Buy on pull - backs. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options after a pull - back. Participate in reverse arbitrage for the 11 and 12 contracts. [70] Group 14: Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures main contract fell 0.34% to 53,545 yuan/ton. Spot prices had a certain range. [71] Key Information - The same important article about the unified national market construction is mentioned. The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, but there are short - term multi - empty factors. [72] Logic Analysis - The long - term price of polysilicon is likely to rise, but in the short term, there are factors such as the cancellation of 11 - contract warehouse receipts that may cause a deep pull - back. [74] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Fluctuate in the short term and buy on pull - backs in the medium - to - long term. Participate in reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Hold sold out - of - the - money put options. [75] Group 15: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2511 contract rose 1,640 to 72,680 yuan/ton, the index reduced positions by 652 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 338 to 38,963 tons. Spot prices remained stable. [76] Key Information - The Ministry of Commerce promotes automobile consumption, and Zijin Mining's lithium project in Argentina is put into production. The Brazilian federal prosecutor's office requires the review of lithium mining licenses. [77][78] Logic Analysis - The overall atmosphere is optimistic with the Fed's possible interest rate cut. Although demand is strong, long - term supply is also increasing, and prices need to fluctuate and consolidate. [81] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage trading. [82][83] Group 16: Price and Related Data - Multiple tables show the daily data of various non - ferrous metals, including spot prices, futures prices, spreads, industry profits, and inventory data from September 9 to September 15, 2025, as well as the comparison with the previous weekend and the end of the previous month. [85][86][87] Group 17: Charts - There are many charts showing the historical trends of various indicators of non - ferrous metals such as spot premiums, term structures, import and export profits, and inventory, providing visual references for price analysis. [96][100][104]

2012 31 2025-9-15 分析师：方富强 F3043701 Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 F3040017 Z0015788 助理分析师：陈宇森 F03123927 助理分析师：林静妍 F03131200 ITG国贸期货 目录 01 有色及新能源价格监测 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS） 03 碳酸锂 (LC) 01 PART ONE 有色及新能源价格监测 | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | 年涨跌幅 | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | | 美元指数 | 1973年3月 =100 | 97 6178 . | 0 09% . | -0 . | 12% | -10 01% . | 工业硅 | 元/吨 | 8745 | 0 06% . | -0 85% . | -20 39% . | ...