1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is gradually emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market follows the market sentiment and weakens. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, and the iron ore market is under pressure from high shipments and high inventory, while pre - holiday restocking in the demand side supports the ore price. The first round of price increase for coke has been implemented, Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level, but there is an expectation of supply tightening for coking coal before the Spring Festival, and the futures market fluctuates sharply. There are disturbances in the glass supply, but the oversupply situation continues to limit the upside space of the glass futures market. Overall, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, there is pressure above the futures price, but the restocking intensity before the Spring Festival still exists, and the subsequent resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation, and the cost side still has support. It is expected that the sector will oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [1][2][5] 3. Summary of Each Category 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and arrivals continued to weaken. Due to the impact of weather, there is an expectation of supply disturbances. On the demand side, iron - making water production decreased slightly month - on - month, steel mills' profitability weakened, rigid demand was stable, and steel mills' restocking accelerated before the Spring Festival, but the support for prices may gradually weaken as restocking progresses. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and the overall inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [6][7] - **Scrap Steel**: Both supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As restocking nears the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and it is expected that the spot price will mainly follow the finished products [8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been fully implemented, and coking profits have improved significantly. The overall supply change is limited. On the demand side, steel - mill blast furnaces are in a state of both resumption and maintenance, and iron - making water production remains high, with strong rigid demand support. The inventory in steel mills has increased steadily. The supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel - mill resumption expectation still exists. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the fundamental bullish driving force is also limited. The spot is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost side (coking coal) [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The domestic supply is temporarily stable, and Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level. The downstream winter - storage restocking is still in progress, and the upstream coal - mine inventory is being continuously digested. As the winter - storage inventory gradually reaches the target, the spot - market sentiment has cooled down, and the online auctions show mixed results, with the overall coal price weakly stable. The futures market oscillates due to the impact of capital - sentiment fluctuations. Before the Spring Festival, domestic coal - mine production will gradually decline, the fundamentals will remain healthy, but the fundamental bullish driving force is limited. The spot is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuation of the futures - market sentiment remains to be observed [12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main contract will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw - material prices and the change in manufacturers' production - control intensity [15] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The supply - and - demand situation is weak, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The low trading activity before the Spring Festival suppresses the upside space of the futures market. It is expected that the futures price will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the production - control trends in the main production areas [16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has an expectation of disturbances, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Currently, the supply - and - demand situation is still in oversupply. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] - **Soda Ash**: The daily production is continuously at a high level, and restocking is nearing the end. The overall supply - and - demand situation is still in oversupply. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply situation will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [13]

黑色建材日报 2026-02-03 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3098 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 30 元/吨（-0.95%）。当日注册仓单 14841 吨, 环比减少 2442 吨。主力合约持仓量为 178.41 万手，环比增加 49987 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3230 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3261 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 27 元/吨（-0.82%）。 当日注册仓单 199447 吨, 环比增加 9124 吨。主力合约持仓量为 149.88 万手，环比减少 30859 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3260 元 /吨, 环比减少 30 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 地产链有望震荡向上 2026 年 02 月 02 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石峰源 执业证书：S0600521120001 shify@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2025/2/5 2025/6/4 2025/10/1 2026/1/28 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究 《继续看好地产链估值修复》 2026-01-26 《社融增速小幅回落，关注红利高股 息等方向》 2026-01-19 东吴证券研究所 1 / 19 ◼ 风险提示：地产信用风险失控、政策定力超预期。 东吴证券研究所 2 / 19 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 1、玻纤：（1）2025 年以来较强内需支撑下新增产能逐步消化，供给冲 击最大的阶段已经过去。行业盈利仍处历史低位，资本开支持续放缓， 中期新增产能有限。我们 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 地产链有望震荡向上 2026 年 02 月 02 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石峰源 执业证书：S0600521120001 shify@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2025/2/5 2025/6/4 2025/10/1 2026/1/28 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究 《继续看好地产链估值修复》 2026-01-26 《社融增速小幅回落，关注红利高股 息等方向》 2026-01-19 东吴证券研究所 1 / 19 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周（2026.1.23–2026.1.30，下同）：本周建筑材料板块（SW）涨跌幅 0.73%，同期沪深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为 0.08%、-1.59%，超 额收益分别为 0.65%、2.32%。 ◼ 大宗建材基本面与高 ...

Group 1 - Oil prices experienced fluctuations, with WTI March contract closing at $65.21 per barrel, a monthly increase of 14.51%, and Brent March contract at $70.69 per barrel, up 14.64% [2][41] - The overall trend in January showed a decline followed by a rebound, driven by geopolitical factors [2][41] - Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran remain a significant concern, with any diplomatic breakthroughs appearing unlikely [3][4] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a surplus in the global oil market this year, with supply exceeding demand by 3.85 million barrels per day, approximately 4% of global demand [5] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has adjusted its forecast for 2026 demand growth down by 90,000 barrels to 1.14 million barrels per day [5] - US crude oil production has decreased to 13.7 million barrels per day, with expectations of further declines in the coming weeks [5] Group 3 - Extreme weather events have significantly impacted US oil production, causing a temporary 15% drop in output and leading to price volatility [4] - The market is sensitive to supply disruptions, with risk premiums of $3 to $8 per barrel due to potential interruptions [4] - Current US crude oil inventories stand at 838.753 million barrels, with commercial stocks at 423.754 million barrels, reflecting a 2.08% increase year-on-year [5] Group 4 - The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil from Iran is expected to decrease, with January shipments estimated at 900,000 tons, down 300,000 tons month-on-month [7] - Demand for high-sulfur fuel oil in China is anticipated to increase significantly, with expected imports of 100,000 tons in January and 105,000 tons in February [7] - The geopolitical situation in Iran continues to influence oil supply dynamics, with recent disruptions affecting shipping volumes [8] Group 5 - The overall sentiment in the oil market is mixed, with geopolitical uncertainties providing some support for prices while high inventories limit upward movement [6][8] - The market is expected to remain volatile, with short-term fluctuations driven by geopolitical developments and supply-demand dynamics [6][8]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black series is currently in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate within a range, and the trend opportunity is not clear. Attention should be paid to inventory changes around the Spring Festival, the recovery of plate demand, and marginal adjustments to "dual - carbon" policies [2] - In the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bulls are expected to continue. However, in the short term, factors such as the sharp adjustment of precious metals, the appointment of the new Fed chairman, and the "technical shutdown" of multiple US federal government departments may suppress the overall market atmosphere [8][14] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products a. Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3128 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (- 0.91%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 17283 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.7341 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 51270 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3288 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.60%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 190323 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2655 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.5297 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 17466 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3290 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1] b. Strategy Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. Domestically, the policy tone was relatively stable. Overseas, the market's dovish expectations declined, and commodity prices cooled down. The rebar output remained high, the apparent demand declined seasonally approaching the Spring Festival, and the inventory started to accumulate but the overall amplitude was controllable. The demand for hot - rolled coils was relatively stable, the output was moderately high, and the inventory continued to decline slightly [2] Iron Ore a. Market Information - Last Friday, the main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 791.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.88% (- 7.00). The position changed by - 14164 lots to 541200 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 894300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.04 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.17% [3] b. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly. The shipment volume from Australia increased month - on - month, and that from Brazil remained stable. The shipments of three major Australian mines increased, while that of Vale decreased slightly. The shipments from non - mainstream countries declined from a high level. The recent arrival volume continued to decline. In terms of demand, the average daily hot metal output was 227.98 tons, a month - on - month slight decline. Some blast furnaces in certain regions were undergoing annual inspections, and the复产 of blast furnaces was mainly due to the end of maintenance. The profitability rate of steel mills declined slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past five years, which put pressure on the absolute price. The inventory of imported ore in steel mills continued to rise, and steel mills continued to replenish their stocks before the festival. In general, the overseas supply was entering the off - season, the supply pressure was gradually alleviating, the structural inventory problem was not resolved, and the pre - festival procurement by steel mills after price decline provided some support. The short - term iron ore price was expected to fluctuate mainly [4] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon a. Market Information - On January 30th, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed down 0.91% at 5872 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5780 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5970 yuan/ton on the futures market, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 98 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 1.32% at 5660 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 140 yuan/ton over the futures [7] - Last week, the prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon continued to fluctuate. The weekly weighted index of manganese silicon increased by 22 yuan/ton or + 0.38%, and that of ferrosilicon increased by 10 yuan/ton or + 0.18%. Technically, there was no obvious trend for both [7] b. Strategy Viewpoints - The recent sharp fluctuations in the commodity market were triggered by the appointment of the new Fed chairman, which led to expectations of a marginal tightening of the denominator. The previous strong - performing lithium carbonate also declined significantly, suppressing the overall commodity sentiment. However, the black sector was supported by the relaxation of the "three red lines" in the real estate industry and the successful extension of Vanke's debt. In the long - term, the commodity bulls were expected to continue. In the short - term, factors such as the adjustment of precious metals, the appointment of the Fed chairman, and the "technical shutdown" of US federal government departments might suppress the market atmosphere. For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern was not ideal, but most of these factors were already reflected in the price. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand structure was basically balanced and was gradually improving. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon would be affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - push factors for manganese silicon and supply - contraction factors for ferrosilicon [8][9] Coking Coal and Coke a. Market Information - On January 30th, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 0.82% at 1155.5 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1584.8 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1395 yuan/ton, with a premium of 239.5 yuan/ton over the futures. The price of medium - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1284 yuan/ton, with a premium of 128.5 yuan/ton over the futures. The price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1234 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1209 yuan/ton, with a premium of 53.5 yuan/ton over the futures [11] - The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 0.09% at 1721.5 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1725.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 4 yuan/ton over the futures. The price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1495 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1710.5 yuan/ton, with a discount of 11 yuan/ton to the futures [11][12] - Last week, the coking coal price continued to fluctuate widely, with a weekly increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or + 0.04%. The coke price continued to fluctuate, with a weekly decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton or - 0.03% [12] b. Strategy Viewpoints - Similar to the overall market situation, the sharp fluctuations in the commodity market affected coking coal and coke. The black sector had short - term emotional support. In the long - term, the commodity bulls were expected to continue, but in the short - term, market sentiment was suppressed. In terms of supply - demand, the supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke was gradually becoming looser. Although the downstream was still replenishing stocks, the inventory of coking coal in coking plants was approaching the level of the same period last year, and the willingness of downstream steel mills to replenish stocks was significantly weak. The short - term stock - replenishment was not expected to drive up prices strongly. However, the firm Australian coal prices and the US power shortage might have a positive impact on sentiment. In the context of global resource management, the "scarcity" premium of coking coal might be enhanced, providing some support for valuation. Overall, the short - term prices of coking coal and coke were expected to continue to fluctuate [13][14] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon a. Market Information - Industrial silicon: Last Friday, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8850 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.84% (- 75). The weighted contract position changed by - 13784 lots to 353139 lots. In the spot market, the price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 350 yuan/ton for the main contract. The price of 421 industrial silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis for the main contract was 0 yuan/ton after conversion [16] - Polysilicon: Last Friday, the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 47140 yuan/ton, with a change of - 4.45% (- 2195). The weighted contract position changed by - 710 lots to 76114 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 49 yuan/kg, down 0.5 yuan/kg from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 50.5 yuan/kg, down 1 yuan/kg from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 51.3 yuan/kg, down 1.2 yuan/kg from the previous day, with a basis of 4160 yuan/ton for the main contract [19] b. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: It showed a pattern of rising in the afternoon and then falling last Friday. In terms of supply, Sichuan's production enterprises maintained the furnace - shutdown state, and enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia reduced production, with the weekly output continuing to decline. In terms of demand, a leading polysilicon enterprise shut down completely, and some other enterprises reduced production. The demand for industrial silicon was generally weak. In February, the production - reduction plan of a large factory in Xinjiang entered the implementation period. If the plan was implemented as rumored, the supply - demand balance sheet in February was expected to improve, and the sustainability depended on the shutdown duration. Overall, there was an expectation of improved supply - demand in the short - term, and the supply contraction provided strong support for the price. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival and the weakening downstream, the price was expected to fluctuate mainly [17][18] - Polysilicon: In the spot market, the price negotiation was intense, and the market information was chaotic. The downstream's acceptance of high prices was low, and some enterprises tried to lower the prices. The actual transaction prices declined. The silicon wafer segment was also under pressure, and the price of silicon materials weakened, which reduced the cost support. The terminal component prices continued to rise, and the battery segment's price continued to rise due to non - silicon costs and overseas demand. The supply - demand pattern was expected to improve in the first quarter as a leading enterprise shut down and some other enterprises reduced production. Policy expectations were expected to provide support for prices. The futures position and liquidity of polysilicon had fallen to a relatively low level since listing, and the futures price was expected to be under pressure due to the weakening spot prices. Attention should be paid to the feedback of terminal demand and possible new policy adjustments [20] Glass and Soda Ash a. Market Information - Glass: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1087 yuan/ton, up 1.87% (+ 20) from the previous day. The price of large - size glass in North China was 1020 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day, and that in Central China was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On January 30th, the weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million cases, a month - on - month decrease of 651,800 cases (- 1.22%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 8027 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 69570 lots [22] - Soda ash: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1224 yuan/ton, up 2.17% (+ 26) from the previous day. The price of heavy - soda ash in Shahe was 1184 yuan, up 26 yuan from the previous day. On January 30th, the weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.5442 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,000 tons (+ 1.22%), including 716,100 tons of heavy - soda ash inventory, a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons, and 828,100 tons of light - soda ash inventory, a month - on - month increase of 3600 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 11413 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 8239 lots [24] b. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: As the Spring Festival approached, the downstream processing plants were approaching the end of work, the market demand was weakening, the trading activity was decreasing, and the procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The inventory - building was almost completed. In terms of supply, a production line was restarted and ignited recently, and there was no cold - repair plan, so the overall production capacity remained stable. The demand was limited due to the Spring Festival seasonality. Overall, the market lacked strong driving factors, the wait - and - see sentiment was strong, and manufacturers were not willing to adjust prices. Most of them aimed to maintain stable prices, promote sales, and reduce inventory. The float - glass market was expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 1025 - 1125 yuan/ton [23] - Soda ash: The supply in the industry remained loose. The short - stopped devices such as Jiangsu Huachang had resumed operation, and the new production capacity was gradually being released, with the supply continuing to show an increasing trend. The demand side remained weak, with downstream enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases. Only a few enterprises made appropriate inventory - building before the festival, and the overall wait - and - see sentiment was strong, with limited order growth. Overall, the current supply - demand structure of the soda - ash market was relatively loose, downstream purchasing was cautious, and the price lacked upward - driving force. The market was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly and steadily in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 1160 - 1250 yuan/ton [25]

Industrial Sector - Industrial production shows mixed recovery, with steel and building materials output increasing while cement and glass production rates are stabilizing[2] - The steel output for major varieties has increased, while apparent demand for steel building materials has decreased[7] - The operating rate for cement clinker has improved, while the operating rate for flat glass has also seen a seasonal recovery[11][13] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities have stabilized, with a year-on-year growth rate of 109.1% due to a low base last year[2] - The sales area of new homes in January has decreased by 23.8% year-on-year, but improved by 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index has decreased by 0.45%, with the decline narrowing by 0.48 percentage points from the previous value[25] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of passenger cars from January 1 to 18 have dropped by 28% year-on-year, with a slight expected increase of 0.3% for the entire month due to the Spring Festival timing[28] - Major home appliance retail sales have decreased by 27.9% year-on-year, but improved by 3.3 percentage points compared to the previous value[30] - The volume of postal express collection has increased by 3.7% year-on-year, showing a recovery trend[33] External Demand - Port cargo throughput has increased by 4.3% year-on-year, with container throughput rising by 7.7%[35] - The export container freight rate index has decreased by 2.7% this week, indicating a decline in shipping costs[35] - The manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone has improved to 49.4%, while the US manufacturing PMI has decreased to 51.8%[35] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Price Index has risen by 1.4%, while the black raw materials index has fallen by 0.2% and the non-ferrous metals index has decreased by 0.9%[36] - The agricultural product wholesale price index has increased by 0.2% week-on-week, indicating slight inflation in food prices[41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2]. Core Views - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from a new round of urban renewal, with significant potential in the consumer building materials segment as it shows resilience against the declining demand in the new housing market [2][9]. - The industry is witnessing a consolidation trend, with leading companies emerging from the profit trough, while smaller firms are being eliminated due to declining profitability [2][9]. - Price increases have been observed in various segments, including waterproofing, coatings, and gypsum board, as companies adjust their strategies post-downturn [2][9]. Summary by Sections Cement - The cement market is entering a traditional off-season, with demand expected to weaken. The average price is around 350 RMB per ton, showing a slight decrease of 2.7 RMB per ton [25][32]. - The average shipment rate for cement companies has increased by approximately 3 percentage points, reaching about 32% [27][32]. - Recommendations include companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, with a focus on potential new projects post-Chinese New Year [32]. Glass - The glass sector is also entering a demand lull, with the average price of float glass at 1,145 RMB per ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 6 RMB [34]. - Inventory levels have decreased, with a reported stock of approximately 4,927 million weight boxes, down by 1% week-on-week [34]. - Companies to watch include Qibin Group and Xinyi Glass, as the industry anticipates a stabilization point after recent downturns [34][46]. Fiberglass - The fiberglass market is expected to maintain stable prices in the short term, with a potential for price increases post-holiday due to stable demand in wind power and thermoplastic sectors [9][12]. - The price of electronic cloth is currently stable, with expectations for continued high demand in mid-to-high-end products [12]. - Key recommendations include China Jushi and International Composites, with a focus on their growth potential [9][12]. Carbon Fiber - Carbon fiber prices are stable, with the commercial aerospace sector expected to drive new demand growth in 2026 [12][15]. - The industry is currently facing profitability pressures, but the development of commercial aerospace may provide new opportunities [12][15]. - Companies to monitor include Zhongfu Shenying and Guangwei Composites, as they may benefit from this emerging demand [12][15].

Core Insights - The construction materials industry is currently at a low valuation level, with a focus on urban renewal and related opportunities. The allocation ratio for construction materials in Q4 2025 is 0.72%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points from Q3 2025, indicating significant potential for valuation recovery [6][15]. Group 1: Urban Renewal and Market Dynamics - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice on January 20, 2026, to support urban renewal actions, providing specific operational guidelines for the "14th Five-Year Plan" urban renewal strategy. This includes a focus on "two renewals and two new projects," emphasizing the construction of underground pipelines and comprehensive utility tunnels [24]. - Companies involved in urban renewal and the renovation of old neighborhoods, such as Dongfang Yuhong, Keshun Co., Sankeshu, Weixing New Materials, and China Liansu, are recommended for attention [24]. Group 2: Construction Materials Sector Overview - The construction materials sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with expectations for continued improvement in 2026. The supply-side adjustments and structural changes in demand are expected to support this recovery [37]. - The cement market saw a 0.8% decrease in prices week-on-week, with the national average price at 345 RMB/ton as of January 30, 2026. The industry is currently at a historical low valuation, with companies like Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and Shafeng Cement recommended for investment [6][38]. Group 3: Key Company Developments - Keshun Co. established a semiconductor company to explore a second growth curve, focusing on integrated circuit chips and related technologies [20]. - Weixing New Materials plans to acquire an 88.26% stake in Beijing Songtiancheng Technology Co., enhancing its capabilities in municipal pipeline systems and expanding its market reach [23]. - Leading companies in the construction materials sector, such as Sankeshu and Huaxin Cement, are expected to report significant profit growth in 2025, driven by strong operational resilience and strategic adjustments [25][27].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Three Gorges New Materials, anticipates a significant decline in net profit for the year 2025, projecting a loss between 45 million to 35 million yuan, compared to a profit of 12.56 million yuan in the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The expected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is projected to be between -45 million to -35 million yuan, a stark contrast to the previous year's profit of 12.56 million yuan [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is forecasted to be between -200 million to -150 million yuan, compared to -22.56 million yuan in the same period last year [1] Industry Context - The primary reason for the performance decline is the sluggish market in the float glass industry, which has led to falling product sales prices and a decrease in gross margins, resulting in losses from core business operations [1]