编辑：吴郑思 新华财经北京9月24日电 工业和信息化部、自然资源部、生态环境部、住房城乡建设部、水利部、农业 农村部日前联合印发《建材行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》。其中明确，严格水泥玻璃产能调 控。严禁新增水泥熟料、平板玻璃产能，新建改建项目须制定产能置换方案。严禁从非大气污染防治重 点区域向大气污染防治重点区域转移水泥熟料、平板玻璃产能。水泥企业要在2025年底前对超出项目备 案的产能制定产能置换方案，促进实际产能与备案产能统一。发挥质量、环保、能耗、安全等综合标准 作用，依法依规淘汰水泥、平板玻璃落后产能，推动环保绩效低的企业逐步退出。加快光伏压延玻璃产 能风险预警由项目管理向规划引导转变。鼓励骨干企业联合社会资本，探索设立绿色低碳转型基金，以 市场化运作方式加快低效产能退出。 ...

基本面为锚，关注预期驱动 曹璐 资深分析师(化工) 从业资格号：F3013434 投资咨询号：Z0013049 行情回顾 曹璐 化工资深分析师；从业资格号：F3013434；投资咨询号：Z0013049 u 7月份开始，玻璃盘面一度大幅拉涨。"反内卷"引发了市场对玻璃行业落后产能淘汰的猜测，商品市场多 头情绪高涨，玻璃期价表现强势。 u 7月下旬至8月底，随着"反内卷"交易情绪告一段落， "供给侧改革"预期落空，基本面压力下，玻璃盘 面大幅下挫，基本跌回本轮上涨起点。 u 9月以来，玻璃走势再度偏强，在此期间宏观和基本面均较为利多玻璃：一方面反内卷交易仍时有扰动；另 一方面，地产基本面持续走弱，政策存在继续加码预期。此外金九银十旺季背景下，玻璃终端需求存在边 际改善预期。但随着盘面升水现货幅度扩大，加上市场多头情绪降温，9月下半月以来，盘面再度有所回调。 基本面分析——供给端 玻璃期现货价格 全国各主要区域浮法玻璃市场价 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 24/01 24/03 24/05 24/07 24/09 24/11 ...

人民财讯9月24日电，工信部等六部门印发《建材行业稳增长工作方案(2025—2026年)》，其中提出， 严格水泥玻璃产能调控。严禁新增水泥熟料、平板玻璃产能，新建改建项目须制定产能置换方案。严禁 从非大气污染防治重点区域向大气污染防治重点区域转移水泥熟料、平板玻璃产能。水泥企业要在2025 年底前对超出项目备案的产能制定产能置换方案，促进实际产能与备案产能统一。发挥质量、环保、能 耗、安全等综合标准作用，依法依规淘汰水泥、平板玻璃落后产能,推动环保绩效低的企业逐步退出。 加快光伏压延玻璃产能风险预警由项目管理向规划引导转变。鼓励骨干企业联合社会资本，探索设立绿 色低碳转型基金，以市场化运作方式加快低效产能退出。 ...

每经AI快讯，9月24日，工业和信息化部、自然资源部、生态环境部、住房城乡建设部、水利部、农业 农村部印发《建材行业稳增长工作方案(2025—2026年)》，严格水泥玻璃产能调控。严禁新增水泥熟 料、平板玻璃产能，新建改建项目须制定产能置换方案。严禁从非大气污染防治重点区域向大气污染防 治重点区域转移水泥熟料、平板玻璃产能。水泥企业要在2025年底前对超出项目备案的产能制定产能置 换方案，促进实际产能与备案产能统一。发挥质量、环保、能耗、安全等综合标准作用，依法依规淘汰 水泥、平板玻璃落后产能,推动环保绩效低的企业逐步退出。加快光伏压延玻璃产能风险预警由项目管 理向规划引导转变。鼓励骨干企业联合社会资本，探索设立绿色低碳转型基金，以市场化运作方式加快 低效产能退出。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the building materials industry for 2025, highlighting investment opportunities in the fiberglass and cement sectors, while suggesting stock selection in consumer building materials and early-cycle segments [2][3]. Core Insights - The building materials industry has shown signs of recovery, with a narrowing revenue decline and improved profitability in the cement and fiberglass sectors. The overall revenue for sample companies in the first half of 2025 was 277.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 4.1%, which is a 10.7 percentage point improvement compared to the entire year of 2024. Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 14.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.9% [5][15]. - The cement industry is experiencing a gradual recovery, with significant profit improvements. In the first half of 2025, the cement sector achieved a revenue of 118.8 billion yuan, down 7.5% year-on-year, but net profit surged by 1110.5% to 5.4 billion yuan. This recovery is partly due to a low base effect from 2024 and favorable pricing conditions [6][28]. - The fiberglass sector reported robust growth, with sample companies generating a total revenue of 31.1 billion yuan, a 20.9% increase year-on-year, and net profit rising by 127.0% to 3.29 billion yuan. The recovery in pricing and the growth in specialty fabric business are contributing factors [7][19]. - Consumer building materials showed a smaller revenue decline of 2.7%, with total revenue of 68.76 billion yuan and net profit down 13.2% to 4.35 billion yuan. Companies like Keda Manufacturing and Sankeshu are demonstrating strong alpha characteristics due to their unique market positions [6][7]. - The glass sector remains under pressure, with a revenue decline of 17.0% to 24.6 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 60.3% to 1 billion yuan, primarily due to high base effects and weak demand in the construction sector [5][19]. - Early-cycle industries are still facing challenges, but leading companies like Subote have reported revenue and profit growth by expanding into major engineering projects [8][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Revenue Decline Narrowing, Cement and Fiberglass Perform Well - The building materials industry is categorized into six segments: cement, glass, fiberglass, early-cycle, consumer building materials, and new materials. The overall revenue decline has narrowed, and profitability has improved, particularly in the cement and fiberglass sectors [15][19]. 2. By Industry: Cement and Fiberglass Recovery, Consumer Building Materials Seek Alpha 2.1 Cement: Recovery Certainty Gradually Realized - The cement industry is showing signs of recovery with improved profitability. The first half of 2025 saw a revenue of 118.8 billion yuan, down 7.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.4 billion yuan, up 1110.5% [28][34]. 2.2 Fiberglass: Profitability Out of Undervaluation, Steady Recovery Expected - The fiberglass sector has shown significant growth, with a total revenue of 31.1 billion yuan, a 20.9% increase year-on-year, and net profit rising by 127.0% [7][19]. 2.3 Consumer Building Materials: Revenue Stabilizing, Some Companies Show Profit Alpha - The consumer building materials segment experienced a revenue decline of 2.7%, totaling 68.76 billion yuan, with net profit down 13.2% to 4.35 billion yuan. Certain companies are demonstrating strong alpha characteristics [6][7]. 2.4 Glass: Photovoltaic Glass Phase Improvement, Building Glass Still Under Pressure - The glass industry is under pressure, with a revenue decline of 17.0% to 24.6 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 60.3% to 1 billion yuan [5][19]. 2.5 Early Cycle: Overall Pressure, Leading Companies Recover First - Early-cycle industries are still facing challenges, but leading companies like Subote have reported revenue and profit growth by expanding into major engineering projects [8][19].

玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面震荡下行，成交较为活跃。截至收盘，主力2601合约跌幅2.39%。现货方面，下游观 望情绪浓厚，以节前补库为主。 黑色建材日报 | 2025-09-24 市场预期转弱，钢价震荡偏弱 玻璃纯碱：供需矛盾仍存，玻碱震荡偏弱 市场分析 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供应大体持稳，消费受到投机性需求和下游补库影响，刚需整体变化有限，盘面大幅升水 刺激期现拿货，带动厂库去化。玻璃盘面价格容易受到消息影响，然而基本面对于价格依旧形成压制，持续关注 宏观政策的变化及玻璃旺季需求表现。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡下行，成交较为活跃。截至收盘，主力2601合约跌幅2.6%。现货方面，下游交 投情绪降温，以节前刚需补库为主。 供需与逻辑：目前纯碱供需矛盾依旧存在，同时伴随远兴二期点火，后续纯碱供给压力将进一步提升。关注纯碱 投机性需求有无减弱，或将进一步激化纯碱的供需矛盾。目前纯碱盘面升水，压制纯碱价格，后期关注新产能投 产进度和库存变化情况。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱产线检修和库存变化等。 双硅：宏观情绪转弱，合金震荡盘整 市场分析 硅 ...

招商证券国际发布研报称，数据显示，传统行业物价自9月以来有所恢复，物价上行趋势是否可以持续 将影响投资方式，新能源行业恢复更持续，因为下游需求更强。该行表示，现在的市场环境是股票上 升，不过债券疲弱。 传统行业中，过去半个月，华东地区水泥价格累计上涨6元/吨，达到428元/吨；西南地区水泥价格自8 月第2周以来保持上涨趋势，累计上涨36元/吨，达到479元/吨。钢价格同样录得环比改善，例如螺纹钢 价格指数转入正值区间，上周上涨23元/吨至3312.2元/吨。浮法玻璃价格连续三周上涨，上涨13元/吨至 1163元/吨。同时，炼焦煤和焦炭价格自2025年第三季以来呈上涨趋势，炼焦煤价格上涨268元/吨至 1452元/吨，焦炭物价指数截至上周上涨236元/吨。 新能源行业中，光电产品综合价格指数自7月中旬以来持续上涨3.29个百分点，达到15.2%。光伏级多晶 硅价格扭转今年以来的下跌趋势，截至上周上涨55%至6.54美元/千克；国内多晶硅价格上涨41.1%至6.9 美元/千克；碳酸锂价格上涨20.5%至72400元人民币/吨。 ...

2023年起，玻璃行业陷入"价格跌、库存高、利润薄"的困境。在基差走弱、波动率加大的市场环境下， 传统经营模式难以应对"低估值+现货亏损"的双重压力。在前期的市场走访中，期货日报记者了解 到，"期货+期权"组合策略成为众多玻璃企业破局的关键。 产业下行周期： 传统套保陷多重困境 调研中，玻璃市场人士武延民向记者反映，玻璃行业产能错配与需求不足双重压力叠加，行业竞争加 剧。 这份对行业困境的感知，在河北正大玻璃有限公司（下称正大玻璃）期货部负责人崔彰那里也得到了验 证。"2024年玻璃行业景气度持续下行，价格与利润双降，库存却大幅增加；2025年预计供应同比下降 7%，但需求将随房地产竣工周期下行持续下滑。更关键的是，玻璃原片生产受窑炉特性与寿命限制， 供应端存在刚性，企业不愿放弃产能指标的心态加剧了产能过剩。"崔彰称。 武延民提到，在产业下行的特殊环境中，当企业已陷入亏损、玻璃现货价格屡创新低时，企业普遍顾 虑"价格是否已触底"，担心套保后行情反弹（不仅未能规避风险，反而错失后续盈利机会），导致套保 决策陷入犹豫。 河北望美实业期货部负责人霍东凯也表示，当前下行周期中，"不套保，现货价格下跌将直接冲击利 润； ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - In August, new construction and completion in the real estate sector continued to hit bottom, with ongoing pressure on sales volume and prices. The new construction area from January to August decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, with a 20.3% decline in August alone. Cement production also saw a year-on-year decline of 4.8% from January to August, with a 6.2% drop in August [5][6] - The report recommends focusing on special fabrics and the African supply chain, with leading companies in the existing market being the main investment theme for the year [2][9] Summary by Sections Real Estate Market - The real estate market continues to face downward pressure on sales volume and prices, with national commodity housing sales amount and area decreasing by 7.3% and 4.7% year-on-year respectively from January to August. The decline in sales accelerated in August, with sales amount and area down by 14.0% and 10.6% respectively [6][7] Cement Market - Cement shipments showed a slight recovery in September, with an average shipment rate of approximately 48%, up by 1.6 percentage points month-on-month but down by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. The average price of cement increased by 0.5% month-on-month as companies pushed for price increases to enhance profitability [7][24] Glass Market - The domestic float glass market experienced mixed price movements, with slight improvements in shipments but overall cautious price adjustments. The inventory levels remain high, and the market sentiment is generally cautious, with production capacity pressures persisting [8][40] Recommended Companies - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in special fabrics such as China National Materials Technology and in the African supply chain like Huaxin Cement and Keda Manufacturing. These companies are expected to benefit from domestic demand recovery and overseas expansion [9][10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The futures of olefins and polyolefins continued to decline. The supply pressure from the restart of northern acrylonitrile plants is emerging, and the market sentiment is bearish. The demand for raw material replenishment by terminal enterprises and the release of upstream production capacity are in a multi - short game, showing a weakening trend. The supply of polyolefins is expected to increase, while the demand support is limited [2]. - The price of pure benzene continued to fall, with a slight narrowing of the decline in East China. The actual fundamentals are okay, but the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market. The supply, demand, and inventory of styrene are expected to increase, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase, so the price trend is weak [3]. - The supply - demand strong expectation of PX is weakened, and the valuation is under pressure. The processing margin and basis of PTA have been repaired, but the industry profit is still poor. The price of ethylene glycol has been falling, with weak expectations. The short - fiber price has followed the raw materials and the external sentiment to decline, and the near - month contract can be allocated bullishly. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, and the expected processing margin repair space is limited [4]. - The methanol futures hit a new low. The high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the price increase. The urea market is in a situation of oversupply and may continue to be under pressure [5]. - The PVC price followed the macro sentiment to decline, with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure. The caustic soda price dropped sharply, with a weak current situation and a strong future expectation [6]. - The soda ash industry is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is falling. The glass market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with a high - level decline in price [7]. Summaries by Categories Olefins - Polyolefins - Acrylonitrile futures continued to decline. The supply pressure from the restart of northern plants is emerging, and the market sentiment is bearish. There is a multi - short game between terminal demand and upstream production capacity release, showing a weakening trend [2]. - Polyolefin futures continued to decline. The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the demand support is limited. The supply of polypropylene is also expected to increase, while the demand is weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene continued to fall, with a slight narrowing of the decline in East China. The actual fundamentals are okay, but the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market [3]. - Styrene futures declined. The supply, demand, and inventory are expected to increase, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase, so the price trend is weak [3]. Polyester - The supply - demand strong expectation of PX is weakened, and the valuation is under pressure. The processing margin and basis of PTA have been repaired, but the industry profit is still poor. Pay attention to the possibility of polyester inventory reduction due to downstream stocking [4]. - The price of ethylene glycol has been falling, with weak expectations. The short - fiber price has followed the raw materials and the external sentiment to decline, and the near - month contract can be allocated bullishly. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, and the expected processing margin repair space is limited [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures hit a new low. The high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the price increase [5]. - The urea market is in a situation of oversupply and may continue to be under pressure [5]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - The PVC price followed the macro sentiment to decline, with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure [6]. - The caustic soda price dropped sharply, with a weak current situation and a strong future expectation [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash industry is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is falling. Look for opportunities to short at high prices, but be cautious near the cost [7]. - The glass market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with a high - level decline in price. Wait and see before the festival and look for opportunities to go long near the cost later [7].