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黑色建材日报-20251110
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 02:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel demand has officially entered the off - season. Hot - rolled coil inventory risk still exists, and future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. With the implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. The steel consumption side may gradually recover in the future. Although demand is still weak in the short term, it is expected to turn around with policy implementation and macro - environmental changes [2]. - For the iron ore market, due to environmental protection restrictions and declining steel mill profits, iron ore demand continues to weaken, and inventory pressure remains. After the macro - events are realized, the iron ore fundamentals are weak, and the short - term ore price is still running weakly [5]. - For the manganese silicon and silicon iron market, the black - sector pricing has recently returned to fundamentals. The market is trying a "negative feedback" trade, but it is considered a temporary shock with limited downside space. It is more cost - effective to look for callback positions to do long rather than short. The subsequent upward height depends on the introduction and strength of stimulus policies [9][10]. - For the industrial silicon market, supply and demand are both weak, and the cost support is stable. The price is expected to consolidate and wait for new drivers [13]. - For the polysilicon market, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited. The price increase depends on the actual progress of the platform company [15]. - For the glass market, the short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and local prices can be flexibly adjusted. For the soda ash market, it is expected to maintain a stable and volatile operation in the short term [18][19]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3034 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2399 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 59467 lots. The Tianjin aggregate price of rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregate price remained unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3245 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1490 tons, and the main - contract open interest increased by 240 lots. The Lecong aggregate price of hot - rolled coil decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregate price remained unchanged [1]. 3.1.2 Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar supply and demand both decreased, and inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance. Hot - rolled coil demand declined significantly, with inventory accumulating against the season. Overall, steel demand has entered the off - season, and attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 760.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.19% (- 17.00). The open interest increased by 21913 lots to 55.94 million lots. The weighted open interest was 97.96 million lots. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.82 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.41% [4]. 3.2.2 Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased, but it was still at a high level. In terms of demand, the daily average pig - iron output decreased, and steel mills increased maintenance. The port inventory increased, and the steel - mill inventory also rose. Fundamentally, iron ore demand continued to weaken, and inventory pressure remained. In the short term, the ore price was expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 750 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron 3.3.1 Market Information - On November 7, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.66% at 5760 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 110 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed down 1.07% at 5526 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5580 yuan/ton, with a basis of 54 yuan/ton [7]. - Last week, the manganese - silicon price fluctuated, with a weekly decline of 8 yuan/ton (- 0.14%). The silicon - iron price also fluctuated, with a weekly increase of 34 yuan/ton (+ 0.62%) [8]. 3.3.2 Strategy Viewpoints - In November, the black - sector pricing returned to fundamentals. The market was trying a "negative feedback" trade, but it was considered a temporary shock. It was more cost - effective to look for callback positions to do long. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese - ore situation. For silicon iron, it followed the electricity - price changes with low operational value [9][10]. 3.4 Industrial Silicon 3.4.1 Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 9220 yuan/ton, up 1.71% (+ 155). The open interest increased by 35423 lots to 435728 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China remained unchanged, with a basis of 80 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 remained unchanged, with a basis of - 320 yuan/ton [12]. 3.4.2 Strategy Viewpoints - In October, industrial - silicon production increased. In November, Southwest production was expected to decline. Demand from polysilicon decreased, and organic - silicon production was expected to be stable. Inventory was at a high level, and the price was expected to consolidate [13]. 3.5 Polysilicon 3.5.1 Market Information - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 53215 yuan/ton, down 0.34% (- 180). The open interest increased by 3207 lots to 228759 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of - 1015 yuan/ton [14]. 3.5.2 Strategy Viewpoints - In November, polysilicon production decreased, and downstream silicon - wafer production was also expected to decline. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but short - term de - stocking was limited. The price increase depends on the progress of the platform company [15]. 3.6 Glass and Soda Ash 3.6.1 Market Information - Glass: The main contract closed at 1101 yuan/ton, up 0.36% (+ 4). The North China large - plate price remained unchanged, and the Central China price increased by 20 yuan. The weekly inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 265.40 million cases (- 4.03%) [17]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1207 yuan/ton, up 1.00% (+ 12). The Shahe heavy - soda price increased by 12 yuan. The weekly inventory of sample enterprises increased by 1.22 million tons (4.03%) [18]. 3.6.2 Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: The short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and local prices can be flexibly adjusted. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and production - capacity changes [18]. - Soda ash: The domestic market was stable, and the short - term market was expected to maintain a stable and volatile operation [19].
2025 年三季报综述:淡季调整,优秀企业延续改善
Investment Rating - The report suggests investment opportunities in the glass fiber and cement industries, with a focus on selecting stocks in the consumer building materials and early-cycle sectors [3][4]. Core Insights - The construction materials industry saw a narrowing revenue decline of 3.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 4,322.5 billion yuan. Net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 27.8% to 244.4 billion yuan, marking a shift from profit decline to growth [2][9]. - The cement industry demonstrated significant profit elasticity, with sample companies achieving a total revenue of 1,812.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 8.4%, but a net profit increase of 148.8% to 91.3 billion yuan [20][27]. - The glass fiber sector reported robust growth, with total revenue of 492.1 billion yuan, up 23.5% year-on-year, and net profit soaring by 121.4% to 48.7 billion yuan [4][35]. - The consumer building materials segment faced pressure, with a revenue decline of 0.9% to 1,107.5 billion yuan and a net profit decrease of 6.9% to 82.1 billion yuan, although some companies showed strong performance [4][5]. - The early-cycle sector remains under pressure, but leading companies like Subote have achieved revenue and profit growth through strategic project expansions [5][9]. Summary by Sections Cement Industry - The cement industry is experiencing a gradual recovery, with a total revenue of 1,812.3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, down 8.4% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 148.8% to 91.3 billion yuan. Major players like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement continue to dominate profit contributions [20][27]. - The overall profit margin for the cement sector improved, with a gross margin of 22.4%, up 2.76 percentage points from the previous year [27][29]. Glass Fiber Industry - The glass fiber sector has shown strong performance, with total revenue of 492.1 billion yuan, a 23.5% increase year-on-year, and net profit rising by 121.4% to 48.7 billion yuan. The recovery in pricing and the growth of specialty fabrics are key drivers of this improvement [4][35]. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials segment reported a revenue of 1,107.5 billion yuan, down 0.9% year-on-year, with net profit decreasing by 6.9% to 82.1 billion yuan. Companies like Keda Manufacturing and Sankeshu are leveraging unique channel advantages to drive growth [4][5]. Early-Cycle Sector - The early-cycle sector remains challenged, but companies like Subote have successfully increased both revenue and profit by focusing on major engineering projects in the western regions [5][9].
非金属建材行业周报:回顾美元加息对非洲的影响,钙钛矿发展关注TCO玻璃-20251109
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-09 12:27
Investment Rating - The report highlights a positive outlook for investment in Africa, particularly in Egypt, due to external support and potential for industrial development [1][10]. Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of US dollar interest rate changes on African economies, using Egypt as a case study, where economic growth has declined from 6.6% in FY 21/22 to 2.4% in FY 23/24 due to external pressures [1][10]. - Egypt's net international reserves reached a record high of $49.03 billion in July 2025, reflecting improvements in foreign exchange availability and investment attraction [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the need for African countries to develop local industries and supply chains to mitigate the negative impacts of external economic fluctuations [1][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Discussion - The report examines the growth potential in Africa amidst a backdrop of US dollar interest rate changes, focusing on Egypt's economic challenges and recovery efforts [1][10]. - It notes significant investments from the UAE and the World Bank to support Egypt's economy, totaling $35 billion and $6 billion respectively [1][10]. 2. Sectoral Linkages - Cement prices averaged 351 RMB/t, down 74 RMB/t year-on-year, with a national average shipment rate of 45.9% [2][13]. - Float glass prices decreased slightly to 1197.22 RMB/ton, with inventory levels showing a reduction [2][13]. - The report indicates a mixed performance across various materials, with cement and glass showing signs of price stabilization amidst fluctuating demand [2][13]. 3. Market Performance - The construction materials index increased by 1.51%, with glass manufacturing showing a notable rise of 4.41% [16]. - The report highlights the performance of specific companies in the construction materials sector, indicating a positive trend for certain stocks [16][18]. 4. Price Changes in Construction Materials - Cement prices showed a slight decline of 0.1% this week, with regional variations in price adjustments [24][25]. - Float glass prices remained stable, with some regions experiencing minor increases due to supply constraints [33][49]. - The report notes that the fiberglass market is stable, with prices holding steady and slight year-on-year increases observed [55].
能源化工玻璃纯碱周度报告-20251109
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-09 12:16
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Glass: Short - term is volatile and weak, medium - term is a volatile market. The short - term pressure mainly comes from the under - expected production cut. Although the market transaction was good this week, the futures market was still weak. In the long - term, the policy factors of anti - deflation and anti - involution are not clearly falsified, so the long - term trend should not be overly bearish. [2] -纯碱: The trend is weak. The problems of high production and high inventory in the soda ash industry have not slowed down but increased. It depends on either large - scale production cuts in soda ash or continuous improvement in the glass industry to drive positive market feedback. [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Supply - This week, there were slight changes in the float glass production lines. Four production lines in Shahe were shut down, and one in Dalian was put into production. As of November 6, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines in China (200,000 tons per day), with 222 in production and 74 cold - repaired and shut down. The daily output of national float glass was 159,100 tons, a 1.33% decrease compared to 30 days ago. [2] - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines was 11,680 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of ignited production lines was 13,910 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of potentially newly ignited production lines was 14,790 tons per day; the total daily melting volume of potentially restarted old production lines was 10,030 tons; and the total daily melting volume of potentially cold - repaired production lines was 7,950 tons per day. [6][7][8] - After the production cut in Shahe, the further production cut space within the year is limited. Currently, the in - production capacity is about 159,000 tons per day, and the peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons per day. [11] Demand - As of October 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 10.8 days, a 4.0% increase month - on - month and a 16.1% decrease year - on - year. The deep - processing orders were differentiated, with a slight increase in the north and flat or decreased orders in the south. [2] Inventory - As of November 6, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.654 million heavy boxes month - on - month (4.03% decrease) and a 29.05% increase year - on - year. The inventory days were 27.1 days, a decrease of 0.9 days from the previous period. [2] - The production cut in Shahe drove the improvement of spot transactions and a slight decrease in inventory. This year, the inventory reduction started in the third quarter and the intensity in the fourth quarter was not strong, different from the previous years when the main inventory reduction period was in the fourth quarter. [29][32] Price and Profit - Some manufacturers slightly increased prices, while most remained unchanged. The price in Shahe was around 1,120 - 1,140 yuan/ton; in Hubei, central China, it was 1,100 - 1,140 yuan/ton (some increased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton); in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, eastern China, the price of some large manufacturers was around 1,250 - 1,280 yuan/ton. [14][18] - The spot price changed little, but the futures price dropped more, and the basis strengthened. The profit of petroleum coke was about - 1.77 yuan/ton, and the profits of natural gas and coal - fired fuels were about - 72 and 78 yuan/ton respectively. [19][22] Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - The recent market transactions have started to weaken, and this situation is expected to continue. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was 12.5 - 13 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels was 19.5 - 20 yuan/square meter, both unchanged month - on - month. [40][42] Capacity and Inventory - The market transactions have started to weaken, and the inventory is expected to increase seasonally later. There were 406 photovoltaic glass production lines in production in China, with a total daily melting volume of 87,000 tons per day, a 1.36% decrease month - on - month and an 11.64% decrease year - on - year. The sample inventory days were about 24.06 days, a 6.43% increase month - on - month. [44][49][53] Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash plants had phased maintenance and reduced production. The overall maintenance volume in the fourth quarter is generally low. The capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 85.6%, down from 86.9% last week. The current weekly output of heavy soda ash was about 414,800 tons per week. [59][61] Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was about 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 12,200 tons (0.72% increase) from last week. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 814,600 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons month - on - month; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 899,600 tons, an increase of 13,200 tons month - on - month. [64][66] Price and Profit - The low - end price in Shahe was 1,155 yuan/ton. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei were around 1,155 - 1,400 yuan/ton. The enterprise quotations changed little. The profit of the combined - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) was - 174 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda method in North China was - 43 yuan/ton. [76][77][84]
克服“基础级”现状,中国显示产业布局“共链行动”
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-11-09 11:17
Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the Glass New Materials Industry Chain Supply Chain Alliance aims to enhance the safety and stability of the industry chain, prioritizing security over efficiency in the face of increasing risks [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Developments - The Glass New Materials Industry Chain Supply Chain Alliance was launched during the second Glass Industry Development Conference in Bengbu, Anhui, marking a shift towards a more systematic and ecological collaborative approach in China's glass new materials industry [1]. - By 2025, China's share of the global display materials output is expected to reach 48%, yet domestic companies hold less than 10% market share in the substrate/glass sector, dominated by the top three global manufacturers with over 90% market share [1]. Group 2: Challenges and Strategies - The risks in the industry are increasing, with a call for greater emphasis on the security of the industry chain rather than just efficiency, as the current level of self-control in the industry is still at a "basic level" [1]. - Domestic companies are encouraged to adopt a dual approach, focusing on technological breakthroughs while also building market alliances to expand demand [2]. - The recent increase in "337 investigations" by the U.S. against China's display industry is seen as a strategy to create market uncertainty and protect existing patents while hindering competitors' development [2].
建筑材料行业专题研究:Q3建材板块延续利润改善趋势,消费建材板块前三季度收现比同比改善
East Money Securities· 2025-11-09 10:22
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector [2] Core Views - The construction materials sector continues to show a trend of profit improvement in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase in net profit despite a decline in revenue [5][39] - The overall revenue for the construction materials sector in the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 463.64 billion, a decrease of 4.98% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 18.79 billion, an increase of 28.19% year-on-year [5][39] - The report identifies key factors for profit improvement, including a decrease in raw material costs and an improved supply-demand balance for certain construction materials [5][39] Summary by Sections 1. Construction Materials Sector Overview - The construction materials sector's revenue in Q3 2025 was CNY 162.16 billion, down 6.0% year-on-year, with a net profit of CNY 6.99 billion, up 9.2% year-on-year [5][39] - The sector's overall gross margin improved to 19.64%, up 1.58 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 4.18%, up 1.19 percentage points year-on-year [44] 2. Cement Sector - The cement sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 269.04 billion, down 7.79% year-on-year, while net profit was CNY 7.82 billion, up 158.8% year-on-year [46][52] - Despite a decrease in cement prices, profit margins improved due to lower costs of coal and other key inputs [46] 3. Glass Sector - The glass sector faced price pressures, with revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 at CNY 34.41 billion, down 11.28% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 0.27 billion, down 84.22% year-on-year [55][59] - The average price of float glass continued to decline, impacting profitability [55] 4. Fiberglass Sector - The fiberglass sector saw a revenue increase of 23.54% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, totaling CNY 49.21 billion, with a net profit of CNY 4.87 billion, up 121.37% year-on-year [5][39] - Price increases initiated in September contributed to the sector's profit recovery [5] 5. Consumer Building Materials Sector - The consumer building materials sector reported a revenue of CNY 110.76 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, down 5.56% year-on-year, with a net profit of CNY 5.84 billion, down 24.01% year-on-year [5][39] - The sector's cash collection ratio improved to 97.38%, indicating better cash flow management [5][39] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the consumer building materials sector, such as "Three Trees" and "Oriental Yuhong," which have shown resilience and growth potential [9] - It also suggests looking at companies with strong dividend yields and those actively expanding overseas, such as "China National Building Material" and "Conch Cement" [9]
Q4重点关注基本面反弹的消费建材龙头以及出海水泥、高端电子布
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-11-09 05:24
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [4] Core Views - The construction materials sector has shown a 1.62% increase, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.8 percentage points, with glass and ceramics performing relatively well [2][10] - Cement demand continues to weaken due to seasonal factors, with shipment rates down 8% year-on-year as of the latest week [2] - Despite some positive sentiment in the glass market due to production line shutdown news, high inventory levels continue to pressure the market [2] - The real estate sector is stabilizing, with some leading consumer building materials companies showing early signs of revenue improvement in Q3 [2] - The report recommends leading consumer building materials companies and high-growth overseas targets, highlighting the potential for valuation recovery in the sector [2] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.82% while the construction materials sector increased by 1.62%, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [10] - Notable stock performances included Hainan Development (27.4%), Jinjing Technology (24.8%), and Sichuan Jinding (15.3%) [10] Key Recommendations - The recommended stocks include Western Cement, Huaxin Cement, Keda Manufacturing, China National Building Material, Honghe Technology, China Jushi, Rabbit Baby, Qibin Group, and Dongpeng Holdings [3][9] - The report emphasizes the potential for traditional building materials to recover as the industry approaches a cyclical bottom, with specific recommendations for cement and glass companies [16] Price Trends - The report notes that the national cement market price has decreased by 0.1% week-on-week, with regional price fluctuations observed [15] - The average price of float glass has decreased slightly, indicating a stable but cautious market environment [15]
高频数据 | 工业相关数据涨跌分化
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-08 05:55
Core Viewpoint - This week, the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index experienced fluctuations downward, while international crude oil prices declined; industrial-related data showed mixed trends in prices and supply [3] Agricultural Products - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index fluctuated upward, with international crude oil prices declining; agricultural product prices generally increased [4] - Specifically, Brent crude oil decreased by $1.62 per barrel, and WTI crude oil fell by $1.14 per barrel; average wholesale prices for vegetables rose by 0.09 yuan per kilogram, while pork and beef prices increased by 0.43 yuan and 0.56 yuan per kilogram, respectively, but lamb prices dropped by 0.19 yuan per kilogram [5] Industrial Data - Industrial-related data showed mixed trends: the Nanhua Industrial Products Index fluctuated downward, with glass prices slightly rising and coking coal prices declining [15] - Glass futures closed up by 8 yuan per ton, while coking coal futures fell by 16 yuan per ton; the blast furnace operating rate was recorded at 83.15%, slightly up from last week and higher than the historical average [15] Real Estate Investment - Investment-related data in real estate remained weak; land transaction area in 100 major cities increased to approximately 24.89 million square meters, while commodity housing transaction area in 30 major cities rose to about 2.02 million square meters, still significantly below the historical average [24] - The index for second-hand housing listing prices declined, with the decrease rate increasing compared to the previous week; the cumulative value of completed housing area increased but remained below historical levels [24] Travel Consumption - Travel consumption data mostly increased, aligning with seasonal trends; subway passenger volumes in major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen rose, with growth rates of 0.52%, 0.11%, 1.62%, and 1.22%, respectively [34] - Movie box office revenue slightly decreased, falling below the same period in 2024, 2023, and 2021; retail sales of passenger cars surged, exceeding historical levels, while the number of domestic flights executed slightly declined but remained above historical averages [34]
央地产学研“链动” 玻璃新材料产业共议转型发展
Core Viewpoint - The conference highlighted the urgent need for the inorganic non-metallic materials industry chain to enhance collaboration and accelerate transformation, particularly in the glass sector, which is pivotal for emerging industries like display panels and semiconductors [1][2][3]. Industry Overview - The inorganic non-metallic materials industry is foundational to modern industrial development, impacting eight major sectors of the national economy and encompassing 34 strategic emerging industries [2]. - The industry is currently undergoing a critical optimization and transformation phase, facing challenges such as the need for a more complete industrial ecosystem and the large-scale application of new technologies and products [2][3]. Technological and Strategic Initiatives - The industry is encouraged to form innovation alliances led by major enterprises, collaborating with universities and research institutions to tackle key technologies and enhance the low-carbon inorganic non-metallic materials supply chain [3][4]. - The focus is on aligning industrial development with national strategic needs and leveraging opportunities presented by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [4]. Regional Development and Collaboration - Bengbu, known as the "Glass Capital," aims to position itself as a global hub for glass new materials, emphasizing smart, green, and integrated development [5]. - The establishment of the Glass New Materials Industry Chain Alliance, involving 12 organizations, aims to foster collaboration across various sectors, including photovoltaic and automotive glass [6]. Innovation and Market Opportunities - The conference introduced 46 supply-demand lists and 25 new technologies, products, and equipment in the glass new materials sector, providing better options for the industry [6]. - The focus on sustainable growth in the glass new materials industry is expected to create a "second growth curve," targeting applications in semiconductors, housing, new energy, and automotive glass [5].
玻璃期货日报-20251107
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 14:44
Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Futures Daily Report - Date: November 7, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Analyst: An Zhiyuan [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On November 6, 2025, the glass futures market was active but prices were under pressure. The glass market is in a stage of game between "supply contraction expectations and weak demand reality." Short - term sentiment is boosted by cold - repair expectations in the Shahe area, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals face triple pressure of over - capacity, high inventory, and weak terminal demand. Future trends will depend on policy implementation and inventory reduction speed [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On November 6, 2025, the glass FG2601 contract fluctuated throughout the day, closing with a small decline of about 0.45% at 1101 points. The trading volume was 1,741,879 lots, and the open interest was 1,707,110 lots, an increase of 18,149 lots from the previous day [2]. 3.1.2 Variety Prices - The prices of 12 glass futures contracts showed a mixed trend. Except for a small increase in the FG2511 contract, all other contracts had small declines. The total open interest of the variety was 2,149,502 lots, an increase of 36,742 lots from the previous day, with the open interest of the active FG2601 contract increasing by 18,149 lots [5]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - For the active glass FG2601 contract, the basis remained relatively stable at 27 yuan/ton on the day [7]. 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The total number of warehouse receipts today was 219, a decrease of 34 from the previous day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - This week, the average operating rate of the float glass industry decreased by 0.43% to 75.92%, and the average capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.2% to 80.42%. From October 31 to November 6, the national float glass output was 1.1261 million tons, a decrease of 0.25% month - on - month and an increase of 1.87% year - on - year. As of today, the national float glass daily output was 159,100 tons, the lowest in 15 weeks [9][10]. 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - The glass FG2601 contract showed a similar trend to soda ash, with a small - scale fluctuation today. It is still in a post - rebound oscillatory technical pattern. Today's K - line closed as a positive line, and the daily K - line was close to the middle track of the BOLL line, with the BOLL line showing a narrowing pattern [11]. 3.4 Market Outlook - On November 6, the main glass futures contract closed at 1,101 yuan/ton, a 0.45% decline from the previous trading day. The market was active but prices were under pressure. The glass market is in a game stage, and future trends depend on policy implementation and inventory reduction [12].