Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model 1: Commodity Term Structure Model - **Construction Idea**: This model captures the state of commodity contango and backwardation using the roll yield factor, dynamically going long on commodities with high roll yields and short on those with low roll yields[23][24] - **Construction Process**: - Identify the roll yield for each commodity - Rank commodities based on their roll yields - Go long on commodities with the highest roll yields and short on those with the lowest roll yields - **Evaluation**: The model has shown good performance recently, particularly in the industrial metals and agricultural products sectors[23][24] Model 2: Commodity Time Series Momentum Model - **Construction Idea**: This model captures medium to long-term trends in domestic commodities using multiple technical indicators, dynamically going long on assets with upward trends and short on those with downward trends[23][24] - **Construction Process**: - Use technical indicators to identify trends in commodity prices - Rank commodities based on their trend strength - Go long on commodities with the strongest upward trends and short on those with the strongest downward trends - **Evaluation**: The model has underperformed recently, with significant losses in the black and energy chemical sectors[33][35] Model 3: Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model - **Construction Idea**: This model captures changes in the domestic commodity fundamentals using the inventory factor, dynamically going long on assets with decreasing inventories and short on those with increasing inventories[23][24] - **Construction Process**: - Identify inventory levels for each commodity - Rank commodities based on their inventory changes - Go long on commodities with the largest inventory decreases and short on those with the largest inventory increases - **Evaluation**: The model has shown mixed performance, with significant losses in the agricultural products sector[39][41] Model Backtesting Results Commodity Term Structure Model - **Recent Two-Week Return**: 1.69%[26] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 3.09%[28] - **Top Contributors**: Glass (1.27%), PVC (0.32%), Rubber (0.31%)[30] - **Top Detractors**: Sugar (-0.16%), PTA (-0.24%), Methanol (-0.25%)[30] Commodity Time Series Momentum Model - **Recent Two-Week Return**: -1.22%[26] - **Year-to-Date Return**: -3.17%[33] - **Top Contributors**: Soybean Oil (0.26%), LPG (0.16%), Soybean Meal (0.07%)[37] - **Top Detractors**: Rebar (-0.28%), Soda Ash (-0.30%), Cotton (-0.33%)[37] Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model - **Recent Two-Week Return**: -0.56%[26] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 3.42%[39] - **Top Contributors**: Corn (0.54%), Polypropylene (0.27%), Nickel (0.22%)[43] - **Top Detractors**: PVC (-0.26%), Cotton (-0.39%), Soybean Oil (-0.46%)[43]

Group 1: Gold Market - The initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending August 2 reached 226,000, slightly above market expectations and previous values, indicating a weak employment market [1] - President Trump has nominated Stephen Moore as a temporary Federal Reserve governor, with a dovish stance likely to influence future monetary policy [1] - Analysts suggest a high probability of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts due to recent weak economic data [1] - Technical indicators show a sideways trend for gold, with resistance at $3424 and support at $3360 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Geopolitical tensions are expected to ease, with potential U.S.-Russia talks scheduled, which may reduce supply disruption risks and could lead to the lifting of secondary sanctions on Russia [2] - Despite the easing tensions, U.S. oil demand remains high, supported by a significant drop in EIA crude oil inventory data [2] - Saudi Arabia's unexpected increase in official crude oil prices indicates a positive outlook for future oil demand, limiting potential price declines [2] - Technical analysis shows a bearish trend for oil prices, with resistance at $65 and support at $62.51 [2] Group 3: U.S. Dollar Index - The nomination of Stephen Moore and the potential appointment of a dovish Federal Reserve chair are likely to put pressure on the U.S. dollar [3] - Market expectations indicate a 92.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for the dollar, with risks of further declines towards the 97.92 level [3] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown strong performance recently, with support found at the 62-day moving average [5] - The index is in an upward trend, with potential for further gains if it breaks above previous highs [5] Group 5: Copper Market - Copper prices have been relatively stagnant following a significant drop at the end of July, entering a phase of technical correction [6] - The market remains under bearish pressure, with prices fluctuating between $4.28 and $4.44 [6]

Group 1 - The overall consumer price index (CPI) in May showed a slight decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a widening growth margin of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][3] - Energy prices fell by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall CPI decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.1% [1][2] Group 2 - Food prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with fresh vegetable prices dropping by 5.9%, while prices for eggs, pork, and poultry showed slight declines [2] - The demand for services increased, with service prices rising by 0.5% year-on-year, driven by higher travel and accommodation costs [3] - Industrial producer price index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, but some sectors showed positive price trends [3][4] Group 3 - The hospitality and tourism sectors experienced price increases of 4.6% and 0.8% month-on-month, respectively, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [3] - High-tech industries, including integrated circuits and wearable devices, saw price increases of 3.6% and 3.0% year-on-year, reflecting a shift towards high-end and innovative production [4] - The prices of photovoltaic and lithium battery manufacturing showed a narrowing decline, with decreases of 12.1% and 5% year-on-year, respectively [4]

1. PVC and Caustic Soda Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Caustic soda market is in the off - season, with production increasing month - on - month and spot prices generally stable with a weakening trend. There is an expected increase in supply in August, but potential supply reduction in late August may support prices. The overall expectation is neutral to weak [2]. - PVC prices are expected to continue to face pressure, with increasing inventory and limited improvement in demand. New capacity releases will add pressure to the supply side, and the downstream shows no sign of improvement [2]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's folded - 100% price dropped by 2.4%, and Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda's folded - 100% price dropped by 0.8%. The price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.2%, and the price of ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged. Futures prices also showed a downward trend [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 1.7%, and the PVC industry's operating rate decreased by 3.4%. The profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 12.3%, while the profit of northwest integrated production decreased by 2.2% [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of the caustic soda downstream alumina industry decreased by 4.1%, and the operating rate of PVC downstream products showed mixed trends. The pre - sales volume of PVC increased by 7.3% [2]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda's factory and warehouse inventories decreased, while PVC's total social inventory increased by 4.9% [2]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The supply - demand situation of pure benzene is expected to improve in the third quarter, and its price is slightly strong, but the rebound space is limited. The supply - demand of styrene is still weak, but short - term price support comes from the improvement of the domestic commodity atmosphere and the relatively strong pure benzene [5]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) dropped by 0.7%, and CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.9%. The price of pure benzene in East China increased by 1.2%, and the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.1% [5]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 4.1%, and styrene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 3.0% [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.5%, and the domestic pure benzene operating rate increased by 2.6%. The operating rates of downstream products showed mixed trends [5]. 3. Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The supply of PX is expected to weaken marginally in August, with limited upward and downward space. PTA's short - term price has some support, but the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be weak. Ethylene glycol's supply is turning loose, and short - term prices are boosted by the commodity market. Short - fiber's supply - demand pattern is weak, and bottle - chip's processing fee has limited upward space [8]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil (October) dropped by 0.7%, and CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.9%. Most polyester product prices showed a downward trend [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: PX's supply is stable, and PTA's supply and demand are expected to improve in the short term but weaken in the medium term. Ethylene glycol's supply is increasing, and short - fiber's supply - demand is weak. Bottle - chip's demand is not strong [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of various products in the polyester industry chain showed different degrees of decline [8]. 4. Polyolefins Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and the downstream operating rate is at a low level. However, as the season turns to the peak season, there are potential restocking conditions. The overall valuation is moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant [11]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of LLDPE and PP showed a downward trend, and the spot prices of some products also decreased slightly [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of PP and PE is increasing, and the downstream demand is weak, but there is potential for restocking [11]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP are increasing [11]. 5. Methanol Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The inland methanol production is at a high level, and the port inventory has increased significantly this week. The downstream demand is weak due to low profits, and the 09 contract has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation. The 01 contract may benefit from the seasonal peak season and potential production cuts in Iran [14]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of methanol decreased slightly, and the spot prices showed different trends in different regions [14]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol decreased by 9.5%, and the port inventory increased by 14.48% [14]. - **Operating Rate**: The domestic upstream operating rate increased by 2.28%, and the operating rates of some downstream products showed different trends [14]. 6. Crude Oil Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - Recently, oil prices have been weak due to the reduction of geopolitical risk premiums and the expectation of loose supply. Although there is some demand support, the overall situation still puts pressure on the market. It is recommended to adopt a band - trading strategy [17]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: Brent crude oil dropped by 0.69%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 0.06%. The prices of refined oil products also showed a downward trend [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, but the decline in US EIA crude oil inventory and refinery processing increases show some demand support [17]. 7. Urea Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - The main logic of the urea market this month is the Indian tender news. After the news was realized, the market gave back its gains due to lower - than - expected volume. The supply remains high, and the demand from the agricultural sector weakens. The export has limited support for the market, and the price returns to the oscillation range [22]. Summaries by Directory - **Prices**: The futures prices of urea showed a downward trend, and the spot prices in different regions also decreased slightly [21]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea increased, and the operating rate of production enterprises also increased. The domestic urea inventory showed different trends [21][24].

Group 1 - The U.S. has imposed a 25% punitive tariff on India, primarily targeting oil purchases from Russia, leading to an overall tariff rate of 50% on Indian exports [1] - India has reduced its oil imports from Russia by 2% year-on-year, importing 380.5 million barrels from January to July, while increasing imports from the U.S. by 50% to 60.7 million barrels [1] - The increase in tariffs may disrupt India's key supply chains, particularly in the gem and jewelry sector, which exports $10 billion to the U.S., accounting for 30% of its total exports [2] Group 2 - Modi's government is facing pressure due to Trump's demands for India to open its dairy and genetically modified corn markets, which are critical to Indian agriculture [2] - The potential increase in import costs from Gulf countries could rise by $5 billion, risking domestic inflation [1] - Brazil is also affected by the tariffs and is in discussions with India on how to collectively respond to U.S. tariffs [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is influenced by overseas rate - cut expectations and tariff policies, while China's July import and export data exceeded expectations. The equity market may enter a shock - consolidation phase after rising and shrinking in volume, and bond market opportunities are worthy of attention [2][3]. - Precious metals are boosted by the increasing expectation of the Fed's rate cut, and their prices are expected to remain in a shock - upward trend in the short term [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to remain in a strong - shock trend in the short term due to China's strong trade data, the return of overseas supplies, and the expected rate cut by the Fed [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are in a shock state due to the game between the macro - positive and the general fundamentals [8][9]. - Alumina prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term, and the center of gravity may gradually shift down in the medium term [10]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain an external - strong and internal - weak pattern due to overseas liquidity concerns and the decline of the US dollar [11]. - Lead prices lack continuous positive stimuli and turn to a shock state after the optimistic sentiment is digested [12][13]. - Tin prices follow macro - news, with an external - strong and internal - weak pattern in the short term [14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a strong - shock trend in the short term due to the uncalmed anti - involution sentiment [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices are cautiously bullish in the short term, but the drag of resource disturbances subsiding on prices should be vigilant [17][18]. - Nickel prices may be dragged down by the weakening macro - expectations in the short term [19][20]. - Crude oil prices are in a weak - shock state as the risk of sanctions cools down [21]. - Steel prices are expected to maintain a shock trend due to continuous inventory accumulation [23]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be in a weak - shock trend, and the impact of northern military - parade production restrictions should be focused on in the medium term [24]. - Soybean meal prices may shock and strengthen, but the upward momentum is relatively weak [25][26]. - Palm oil prices may shock and adjust [28]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump nominated Milan as a Fed governor, and the selection of the Fed chairman has started. The reciprocal tariffs have come into effect, and the EU maintains a 15% tariff cap on US chip exports. The US dollar index fell below 98, US bond yields rose slightly, the US stock market opened high and closed low, the gold price exceeded $3400, the copper price rose, and the oil price fell due to the expectation of US - Russia negotiations [2]. - Domestic: In July 2025, China's exports and imports denominated in US dollars both exceeded expectations, with a trade surplus of $98.2 billion. Exports to the EU and ASEAN increased, partially offsetting the decline in exports to the US. The A - share market was in a narrow - range shock, and the bond market rose. The central bank announced a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures continued to rise. The increasing expectation of the Fed's rate cut, weak employment data, and Trump's nomination of a dovish Fed governor have strengthened the rate - cut expectation, boosting precious metals. It is expected that precious metal prices will maintain a shock - upward trend in the short term [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly, and LME copper encountered resistance and fell after failing to break through $9700. China's July copper ore imports increased significantly. Due to the strong trade data, the return of overseas supplies, and the expected rate cut by the Fed, copper prices are expected to remain in a strong - shock trend in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 0.73%, and LME aluminum fell 0.42%. The macro - positive supports aluminum prices, but the fundamentals are general, with inventory remaining flat this week and consumption in the off - season. Aluminum prices are in a shock state [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures fell 0.34%. There are short - term supply disturbances, and the exchange's warehouse receipts have increased rapidly. The consumption side suppresses the price. In the short term, the price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate, and the center of gravity may gradually shift down in the medium term [10]. 3.6 Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated narrowly during the day and shifted down at night, while LME zinc rose. The LME inventory has decreased, and there are signs of a short squeeze. The domestic market is in the off - season with inventory accumulation. Zinc prices are expected to maintain an external - strong and internal - weak pattern [11]. 3.7 Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated narrowly during the day and horizontally at night, and LME lead rose. The social inventory has decreased slightly, but the global visible inventory is high, and the demand is weak. Lead prices lack continuous positive stimuli and are in a shock state [12][13]. 3.8 Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated strongly during the day and horizontally at night, and LME tin rose. The market's rate - cut expectation has pushed up the price, and the inventory shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Tin prices follow macro - news, with limited short - term supply - demand contradictions [14]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the main contract of industrial silicon fluctuated narrowly. The inventory has increased slightly due to the increase in production in the southwest during the wet season. The anti - involution sentiment is still fermenting, and industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a strong - shock trend in the short term [15][16]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Thursday, the price of carbonate lithium futures fluctuated strongly. The market focuses on resource disturbances at home and abroad, but the domestic lithium ore supply is abundant. The spot market is in a wait - and - see state. The short - term price is driven by expectations, but the drag of resource disturbances subsiding should be vigilant. It is cautiously bullish in the short term [17][18]. 3.11 Nickel - On Thursday, nickel prices fluctuated. The US labor market shows signs of cooling, and new tariff disturbances have emerged. The supply of nickel ore is increasing, and the demand for nickel iron is weak. Nickel prices may be dragged down by weakening macro - expectations in the short term [19][20]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil prices fluctuated weakly. Saudi Arabia raised oil prices for Asian customers, and the expectation of a US - Russia summit has cooled the market's concern about supply disturbances. Crude oil prices are in a weak - shock state [21]. 3.13 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel: On Thursday, steel futures fluctuated. The output increased slightly, the apparent demand declined, and the inventory accumulated. Due to the expected production restrictions for the military parade, the inventory pressure is not large, and steel prices are expected to maintain a shock trend [23]. - Iron Ore: On Thursday, iron ore futures fluctuated. The supply is stable, the demand is still resilient, and the export of steel products continues to contribute to the increase. It is expected to be in a weak - shock trend, and the impact of northern military - parade production restrictions should be focused on in the medium term [24]. 3.14 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the soybean meal contract rose, and the rapeseed meal contract fell. The drought - affected area of US soybeans decreased, and the export sales slightly exceeded expectations. The supply of distant - end soybeans is expected to be tight, and Brazilian discounts are rising. Soybean meal prices may shock and strengthen, but the upward momentum is relatively weak [25][26]. 3.15 Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil contract fell, and the soybean oil contract was flat. The production of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia has increased, but the implementation of Indonesia's B40 biodiesel policy provides support. Palm oil prices may shock and adjust [28]. 3.16 Metal Main Varieties' Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. on August 7 [29]. 3.17 Industrial Data Perspective - The report shows the price changes, inventory changes, and other data of metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, etc. from August 6 to August 7 [31][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: Market bets on Fed rate cuts decreased in the early part of the week, but the July non - farm payrolls data triggered concerns about US employment and economic downturn, increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data on August 12, Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting from August 21 - 23, and August non - farm payrolls [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable economic progress in the first half of the year, the tone of the July Politburo meeting focused on using existing policies more effectively, with limited incremental policies. The July composite PMI remained above the critical point, and the progress of US negotiations with China, Mexico and other economies should be monitored [5]. - Asset views: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic will be strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, which is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: Market bets on Fed rate cuts fell in the first half of the week due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting, and rising PCE in June. However, the July non - farm payrolls data was disappointing, with significant downward revisions in May and June, and a rising unemployment rate under a declining labor participation rate, increasing expectations of US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts [5]. - Domestic: The July Politburo meeting emphasized using existing policies effectively, with limited new policies. The July composite PMI was above the critical point, and attention should be paid to US economic negotiations [5]. - Asset: Domestic assets offer structural opportunities, with stronger policy - driven logic in the second half of the year and higher probability of incremental policies in Q4. Overseas, concerns about US economic slowdown boost gold. The long - term weak US dollar trend continues, and non - US dollar assets should be watched [5]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: After event settlement, capital congestion eases. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [6]. - Stock index options: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure, and it is expected to move sideways [6]. - Treasury bond futures: The market continues to digest Politburo meeting information. It is expected to move sideways, affected by factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [6]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: With the US fundamentals weakening and the restart of the rate - cut cycle logic, precious metals are expected to rise in a volatile manner, influenced by Trump's tariff policy and Fed's monetary policy [6]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. It is expected to move sideways, affected by tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [6]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: With strong anti - cut - throat competition sentiment, the futures market is firm. It is expected to move sideways, depending on special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot - metal production [6]. - Iron ore: With a slight decrease in small - sample hot - metal production, the price moves sideways, affected by factors such as overseas mine production, domestic hot - metal production, weather, port inventory, and policies [6]. - Other products (coke, etc.): All are expected to move sideways, affected by factors such as production, cost, and macro - sentiment [6]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Affected by disappointing US non - farm payrolls data, the price is under pressure and expected to decline in a volatile manner, influenced by supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and demand recovery [6]. - Other metals: Most are expected to move sideways, affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and macro - risks [6]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: With geopolitical expectations fluctuating, it is expected to move sideways, affected by OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [9]. - Other chemical products: All are expected to move sideways, affected by factors such as supply, demand, cost, and policies [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Most agricultural products: Are expected to move sideways, affected by factors such as weather, supply, demand, and policies [9]. - Logs: Are expected to decline in a volatile manner, affected by shipment and delivery volumes [9].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The logistics and transportation industry maintains a growth trend. In the first seven months of this year, China's total goods trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year. Exports to ASEAN, the EU, Africa, and Central Asia increased by 9.4%, 3.9%, 17.2%, and 16.3% respectively [1]. - International oil prices dropped significantly compared to the previous day, and egg prices declined [2]. - The PTA operating rate decreased [3]. - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities decreased seasonally and are at a near - three - year low. The box office of popular summer movies increased [3]. Group 2: Industry Credit Spreads - The industry credit spreads of various sectors such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, mining, chemical, and others showed different trends. For example, the industry credit spread of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery decreased from 85.16 last year to 45.21 this week [47]. Group 3: Key Industry Price Indicators - The prices of various products in different industries showed different trends. For example, the spot price of corn was 2324.3 yuan/ton on August 7, a year - on - year decrease of 0.37%; the spot price of WTI crude oil was 64.4 dollars/barrel on August 7, a year - on - year decrease of 8.07% [48].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The stock market may experience increased short - term volatility after continuous previous gains, but the general approach is to go long on dips. The bond market is expected to have a downward trend in interest rates in the long run, with a possible short - term return to a volatile pattern. Precious metals prices are supported by Trump's influence on the Fed, and it is advisable to buy on dips. Base metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products each have their own supply - demand and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [3][5][6]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The central bank will conduct a 7000 - billion - yuan repurchase operation on August 8th. Huawei may launch a triple - folding eSIM phone, and eSIM services are resumed. Seven departments aim to make breakthroughs in brain - computer interface technology by 2027. Apple will invest 6000 billion dollars in the US in the next four years [2]. - **Basis Point Ratios**: The basis point ratios of different contracts for IF, IC, IM, and IH are provided. The trading logic is to go long on dips in the long - term despite short - term volatility [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Quotes**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different increases. - **News**: China's July exports and imports increased year - on - year. The central bank will conduct a 7000 - billion - yuan repurchase operation. The central bank had a net withdrawal of 1225 billion yuan on Thursday [4]. - **Strategy**: Interest rates are expected to decline in the long run, but the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - **Quotes**: Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver all rose. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.23%, and the US dollar index is 98.00 [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Trump's influence on the Fed supports precious metals prices. It is recommended to buy on dips, with reference price ranges provided for Shanghai gold and silver [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Quotes**: LME copper closed down 0.04%, and Shanghai copper closed at 78360 yuan/ton. - **Industry**: LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to have a limited upside in the short term, with reference price ranges provided [9]. Aluminum - **Quotes**: LME aluminum closed down 0.42%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 20670 yuan/ton. - **Industry**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory is relatively low, but the short - term upward movement is difficult, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Zinc - **Quotes**: Shanghai zinc index rose 0.97%. - **Industry**: Zinc ore inventory is increasing, and domestic zinc ingot inventory is accumulating. The short - term consumption is weakening, and the price decline risk is rising [11][12]. Lead - **Quotes**: Shanghai lead index rose 0.19%. - **Industry**: Lead ore inventory is decreasing, and lead ingot supply is tightening. The short - term price is expected to be strong [13]. Nickel - **Quotes**: Nickel price rebounded slightly. - **Industry**: Nickel price is still anchored to nickel iron price. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges provided [14]. Tin - **Quotes**: Shanghai tin rose 0.38%. - **Industry**: Tin supply and demand are both weak in the short term, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak, with reference price ranges provided [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - **Quotes**: The spot index was flat, and the futures contract rose 3.85%. - **Industry**: The supply is increasing, and the inventory is rising. The price is affected by capital games, with a reference price range provided [17]. Alumina - **Quotes**: The index fell 0.62%. - **Industry**: The supply is expected to be in excess. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a reference price range provided [18]. Stainless Steel - **Quotes**: The futures contract rose 0.50%. - **Industry**: The social inventory decreased, and the short - term price is expected to be strong [19]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Quotes**: The contract rose 0.3%. - **Industry**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Quotes**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices declined. - **Industry**: The supply and demand of rebar increased, and those of hot - rolled coil decreased. The inventory is rising, and the price may return to the supply - demand logic. It is recommended to pay attention to demand and cost [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Quotes**: The futures contract fell 0.19%. - **Industry**: The supply is affected by overseas shipments, and the demand is related to iron water production. The short - term trend is not strong, and attention should be paid to demand and possible production restrictions [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price was flat, and the inventory increased. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the long - term trend depends on real estate policies [27]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price fell, and the inventory increased. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short on rallies in the long term [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Quotes**: Manganese silicon fell 0.52%, and ferrosilicon fell 1.25%. - **Industry**: The short - term price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see for investment positions and choose hedging opportunities for hedging positions [29]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures contract fell 0.52%. The supply is in excess, and the demand is insufficient. The price is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to relevant initiatives [33][34]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures contract fell 2.41%. The price is affected by capacity policies and is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to be cautious [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded and then oscillated. - **Industry**: The tire industry has different operating rates. The rubber price is recommended to be traded with a slightly long - biased and fast - in - and - out strategy [38][39][41]. Crude Oil - **Quotes**: WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures all fell. - **Industry**: The fundamentals are healthy, but the seasonal demand will limit the upside. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a target price [42]. Methanol - **Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 8 yuan/ton. - **Industry**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It can be considered as a short - position variety in the sector [43]. Urea - **Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 13 yuan/ton. - **Industry**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips [44]. Styrene - **Quotes**: The spot and futures prices rose. - **Industry**: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may follow the cost to rise after the port inventory is reduced [45]. PVC - **Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 5 yuan. - **Industry**: The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. Ethylene Glycol - **Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 18 yuan. - **Industry**: The supply and demand are changing, and the inventory is expected to increase. The short - term valuation may decline [48]. PTA - **Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 36 yuan. - **Industry**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is about to end the off - season. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [49]. p - Xylene - **Quotes**: The 09 contract fell 38 yuan. - **Industry**: The load is high, and the inventory is expected to decrease. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [50]. Polyethylene PE - **Quotes**: The futures price fell. - **Industry**: The price is affected by cost and supply - demand. It is recommended to hold short positions [51]. Polypropylene PP - **Quotes**: The futures price fell. - **Industry**: The price is expected to follow crude oil to rise in July, affected by supply and demand [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Quotes**: The domestic pig price continued to fall. - **Industry**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to focus on the spread opportunities [54]. Eggs - **Quotes**: The egg price was mostly stable. - **Industry**: The supply is large, and the price is expected to be stable in the short term. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil export and production data, and Brazilian soybean planting area forecast are provided [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: The palm oil price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to go long on dips for soybean meal and expand the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [58][61]. Sugar - **Quotes**: Zhengzhou sugar futures fell. - **Industry**: The import supply is increasing, and the price is expected to continue to fall [62][63]. Cotton - **Quotes**: Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to oscillate. - **Industry**: The downstream consumption is average, and the price is expected to be short - term bearish [64].

Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside, and a short - term target price of WTI at $70.4/barrel is given. It is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits, and to position for the Russian geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane - induced supply disruption season when oil prices drop significantly [2]. - Methanol's valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure. It can be considered as a short - position variety within the sector [4]. - Urea's overall valuation is low, and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to going long at low prices and wait for potential positive factors [6]. - For natural rubber, after a significant decline, the price rebounds. A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy with quick entry and exit is recommended, and a long - short spread trading between RU2601 and RU2509 can be considered [10]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - For benzene - ethylene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price may follow the cost side to fluctuate upward [13]. - For polyethylene, the price in the short - term will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - For polypropylene, the cost side will dominate the market, and the price in July is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil [16]. - For PX, it is recommended to pay attention to short - term long - position opportunities following crude oil at low prices [19]. - For PTA, it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX at low prices [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the short - term valuation has a downward pressure [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.45, a 0.70% decline, at $63.82; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.55, an 0.82% decline, at $66.41; INE main crude oil futures closed down 4.90 yuan, a 0.97% decline, at 501 yuan [1]. - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.26 million barrels to 13.01 million barrels, a 2.02% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.22 million barrels to 8.67 million barrels, a 2.54% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 1.65 million barrels to 26.32 million barrels, a 6.69% increase; total refined oil inventories increased by 2.12 million barrels to 48.00 million barrels, a 4.63% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 7, the 09 contract fell 8 yuan/ton to 2388 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 6 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 6 [4]. - **Analysis**: Domestic methanol production resumed its decline this week, but corporate profits remained high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventories are increasing faster due to faster unloading and shutdown of port MTO units. Inland inventories are decreasing due to olefin procurement, with relatively low pressure [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 7, the 09 contract fell 13 yuan/ton to 1737 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of + 42 [6]. - **Analysis**: Domestic urea production continued to decline, and corporate profits were still at a low level but are expected to bottom out and rebound. Overall supply is relatively abundant. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and subsequent demand will mainly come from compound fertilizers and exports. Current domestic demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU rebounded and then fluctuated [8]. - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to rubber production cuts, and the price usually turns upward in the second half of the year. Bears think that macro - expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected. As of August 7, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from last week but up 8.72 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 4.21 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire factories have inventory pressure [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 5 yuan to 5046 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4910 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 136 (- 5) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 126 (+ 12) yuan/ton [10]. - **Analysis**: The cost of calcium carbide increased, the overall operating rate of PVC was 76.8%, up 0.05%. The downstream operating rate was 42.1%, up 0.2%. Factory inventories were 34.5 (+ 1.2) million tons, and social inventories were 72.2 (+ 3.9) million tons. The overall situation is strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern [10]. Benzene - Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices of benzene - ethylene rose, and the basis strengthened [12]. - **Analysis**: The macro - market sentiment is good, and there is still support on the cost side. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large upward repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the operating rate of benzene - ethylene continues to rise. Port inventories are decreasing significantly, and the short - term BZN spread is expected to repair [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The market is expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there is still cost support. The spot price remained unchanged, and the valuation has limited downward space. Trade inventories are at a high level and have a weak supporting effect on prices. In August, there is a large planned production capacity release. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene fell [16]. - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover. The downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. In August, there is only a small planned production capacity release. Under the background of weak supply and demand, the cost side will dominate the market, and the price in July is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 38 yuan to 6756 yuan, and PX CFR fell 4 dollars to 840 dollars. The basis was 152 (- 1) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 46 (- 4) yuan [18]. - **Analysis**: PX operating rates in China and Asia increased. Some PTA units had short - term maintenance, but PTA inventories are low, and the negative feedback pressure on PX is small. New PTA units are being put into production, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventories. The current valuation is at a neutral level [18][19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 36 yuan to 4688 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4690 yuan, the basis was - 20 (+ 1) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 38 (- 8) yuan [20]. - **Analysis**: The PTA operating rate increased. Downstream operating rates also increased slightly. Supply is expected to increase due to new unit launches, but demand from the polyester and terminal sectors is about to end the off - season. The inventory level is low, and the negative feedback pressure is small [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 18 yuan to 4396 yuan, the East China spot price fell 5 yuan to 4486 yuan, the basis was 73 (- 7) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 34 (- 13) yuan [21]. - **Analysis**: The production of ethylene glycol decreased slightly. Downstream operating rates increased slightly. Import arrivals are expected to increase, and port inventories are expected to gradually increase. The current valuation is relatively high compared to the same period, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken [21].