1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - There is no clear core view presented in the provided content. The document mainly shows the Maike Futures basis statistics table, including the basis rate, spot price, and contract price of various futures products. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 100,860, with a主力基差率 of -0.19% and a change of -0.19% compared to the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price of SMM A00 aluminum is 25,410, with a主力基差率 of 0.24% [3]. - **Zinc**: The spot price of SMM 0 zinc is 24,285, with a主力基差率 of 0.64% [3]. - **Lead**: The spot price of SMM 1 lead ingot is 16,655, with a主力基差率 of -0.93% [3]. - **Tin**: The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 392,650, with a主力基差率 of 0.61% [3]. - **Nickel**: The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 140,950, with a主力基差率 of 0.22% [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price of SMM East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon brick is 8,682, with a主力基差率 of 5.93% [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of steel - linked high - quality battery - grade lithium carbonate is 158,250, with a主力基差率 of 1.63% [3]. - **Gold**: The spot price of AuT + D (Shanghai Gold Exchange) is 1,151.52, with a主力基差率 of -5.26 [3]. - **Silver**: The spot price of Ag(T + D) (Shanghai Gold Exchange) is 22,062, with a主力基差率 of -0.96% [3]. 3.2 Black Industry - **Steel Products** - **Rebar**: The spot price of HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3,230, with a主力基差率 of 3.53% [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The spot price of Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai is 3,275, with a主力基差率 of 1.04% [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of PB powder 61% in Qingdao is 821.5, with a主力基差率 of 3.26% [3]. - **Coke**: The spot price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,896.0, with a主力基差率 of -7.66% [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of main coking coal (Jixian, Mongolia 5) is 1,466.0, with a主力基差率 of 2.99% [3]. - **Power Coal**: The spot price of Shanxi Q500 at Qinhuangdao Port is 801.4, with a主力基差率 of -7.31% [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The spot price of FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 6,002, with a主力基差率 of -7.3% [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The spot price of FeMn68Si18 in Hebei is 5,920, with a主力基差率 of -0.72% [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of 304/2B 2.0*1219 from Angang Lianzhong in Wuxi is 14,495, with a主力基差率 of -0.50% [3]. 3.3 Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils** - **Soybean**: The spot price of domestic first - grade soybean in Harbin is 4,862, with a主力基差率 of -9.26% [3]. - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of ordinary protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,078, with a主力基差率 of 7.07% [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price of ordinary rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,470, with a主力基差率 of 4.74% [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang is 9,000, with a主力基差率 of 1.00% [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10,440, with a主力基差率 of 6.87% [3]. - **Peanut**: The spot price of Baisha peanuts (45% oil content, 9% water content) in Changtu is 9,200, with a主力基差率 of 13.66% [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,780, with a主力基差率 of 0.99% [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Corn**: The spot price of national - standard first - grade corn at Qishenquan Port is 2,405, with a主力基差率 of 0.38% [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The spot price of corn starch at the factory in Changchun is 2,734, with a主力基差率 of 0.91% [3]. - **Apple**: The spot price of red Fuji apples in Yantai Qixia and Shaanxi Luochuan is 8,530, with a主力基差率 of 1.87% [3]. - **Egg**: The spot price of eggs in Hebei Cangzhou is 3,861, with a主力基差率 of -0.48% [3]. - **Pig**: The spot price of external ternary pigs in Henan is 13,790, with a主力基差率 of -9.0% [3]. - **Cotton**: The spot price of cotton price index 328 in Xinjiang is 16,848, with a主力基差率 of 8.38% [3]. - **Sugar**: The spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou is 5,480, with a主力基差率 of 1.18% [3]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The spot price of methanol in East China is 2,850, with a主力基差率 of 4.55% [3]. - **Ethanol**: The spot price of ethanol in East China is 4,560, with a主力基差率 of -2.00% [3]. - **PTA**: The spot price of PTA in East China is 6,606, with a主力基差率 of 0.74% [3]. - **Polypropylene**: The spot price of Hangzhou Shaoxing Sanyuan T30S is 8,950, with a主力基差率 of 2.88% [3]. - **Ethylene Benzene**: The spot price of ethylene benzene in East China is 10,350, with a主力基差率 of 3.46% [3]. - **Short - Fiber**: The spot price of Shangfangxiang semi - bright natural white 1.56*38mm short - fiber is 8,070, with a主力基差率 of 0.52% [3]. - **Plastic**: The spot price of Yuyao Zhejiang Petrochemical 7042 is 8,650, with a主力基差率 of 4.46% [3]. - **PVC**: The spot price of East China SG - 5 Xinjiang Zhongtai mainstream is 5,633, with a主力基差率 of 5.40% [3]. - **Rubber**: The spot price of Thai - produced rubber at Qingdao Bonded Area is 17,685, with a主力基差率 of 1.61% [3]. - **20 - Number Rubber**: The spot price of Thai 20 standard rubber at Qingdao Bonded Area is 14,155, with a主力基差率 of 0.62% [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1,363, with a主力基差率 of -1.99% [3]. - **Urea**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Henan is 1,890, with a主力基差率 of -0.80% [3]. - **Paper Pulp**: The spot price of bleached softwood pulp (Silver Star, Chile) is 5,313, with a主力基差率 of 0.25% [3]. - **Crude Oil**: The spot price of Chinese Shengli crude oil in the Pacific Rim is 658.7, with a主力基差率 of -7.26% [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: The spot price of bonded marine fuel oil 380CST in Zhoushan is 3,879, with a主力基差率 of -3.88% [3]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong is 4,000, with a主力基差率 of 2.67% [3]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The spot price of 0.5% low - sulfur marine fuel oil in Singapore is 4,445, with a主力基差率 of 1195% [3]. - **LPG**: The spot price of LPG in Guangzhou is 6,098, with a主力基差率 of -3.85% [3]. 3.5 Stock Index Futures - **CSI 300**: The spot price is 4,687.6, with a主力基差率 of 0.25% [3]. - **SSE 50**: The spot price is 2,966.4, with a主力基差率 of 0.17% [3]. - **CSI 500**: The spot price is 8,359.5, with a主力基差率 of 0.70% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts on March 13, 2026, and the trend of continuous contracts in March 2026 [2][4]. - It also provides information on macro - news, trading tips, and commodity futures - related information that may affect the futures market [5][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Forecast 3.1.1 March 13, 2026 Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be weakly volatile. For example, IF2603 has resistance at 4659 and 4687 points, and support at 4627 and 4605 points [16]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold and silver futures are expected to be weakly volatile. AU2604 has resistance at 1152.0 and 1162.0 yuan/gram, support at 1132.0 and 1129.2 yuan/gram; AG2606 has resistance at 22400 and 22625 yuan/kilogram, support at 21547 and 21100 yuan/kilogram [2][33]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Copper is expected to fluctuate and consolidate; aluminum, nickel, and others are expected to be strongly volatile [2][41]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil, fuel oil, etc. are expected to be strongly volatile [2][85]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Some agricultural products like soybean meal and palm oil are expected to be strongly volatile [2][108]. 3.1.2 March 2026 Forecast for Continuous Contracts - **Stock Index Futures**: IF, IH, IC, and IM continuous contracts are expected to be weakly and widely volatile [4]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold and silver continuous contracts are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [4]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Copper continuous contracts are expected to be weakly volatile; aluminum continuous contracts are expected to be strongly volatile [4][41]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil and fuel oil continuous contracts are expected to be strongly volatile [4][86]. 3.2 Macro - news and Trading Tips - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress closed in Beijing on March 12, 2026, approving a series of reports and passing relevant laws [5]. - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [5]. - The Ministry of Justice will focus on optimizing the business environment and accelerating legislation in certain fields [5]. - The U.S. will launch trade investigations on 16 major trading partners, which may lead to new tariffs [6]. - Iran's statements on revenge and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz have affected the international oil price [7]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - On March 12, 2026, U.S. and Brent crude oil futures rose significantly, while international precious metals futures generally fell [9]. - London base metals showed mixed trends on March 12, 2026 [10]. - Fitch raised the target prices of 14 metals and minerals in 2026 [10]. - The IEA significantly lowered the global crude oil supply and demand growth forecasts for this year [10]. - Ping An Bank will gradually close its agency business of personal precious metals trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity futures market is affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, inflation expectations, and supply - demand dynamics in different industries. Different commodities show diverse trends and investment opportunities [1][2][4] - Geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation between the US, Iran, and related parties, have a significant impact on the prices of energy - related commodities and also influence the market sentiment of other commodities [1][2][8] Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Market Performance: Overnight, precious metals weakened across the board. International gold prices denominated in London gold fell 1.88% to $5078 per ounce, domestic gold exchange 9999 fell - 0.35% to 1146.45, and SHFE gold main contract fell - 0.34% to 1148.1 yuan per gram. International silver prices fell 2.29% to $85.74 per ounce [1] - Fundamentals: The US will launch a 301 investigation against 16 trading partners; the new leader of Iran stated non - abandonment of revenge and continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Rising oil prices dampened the market's expectation of Fed rate cuts. Domestic gold ETFs had a small inflow of 0.9 tons, and there were changes in inventories of various gold and silver products [1] - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions in gold due to continuous geopolitical tensions and the unchanged logic of central bank purchases and de - dollarization. For silver, short - term exit and wait - and - see are recommended due to a decline in domestic spot premiums and increased overseas arrivals [1] Base Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices fluctuated weakly [1] - Fundamentals: The conflict between Iran and the US - Israel intensified, increasing concerns about a long - term war. The supply of copper ore remained tight, with a low scrap - refined copper price difference [1] - Trading Strategy: Wait patiently for low - price buying points [1] Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased 0.10% to 25240 yuan per ton, with a 0 - 3 month spread of - 190 yuan/ton in the domestic market, and the LME price was $3536 per ton [1] - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [1] - Trading Strategy: Due to the repeated Middle East conflicts, the risk of a decline in overseas aluminum supply increases, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased 0.14% to 2865 yuan per ton, with a 0 - 3 month spread of - 204 yuan/ton [1] - Fundamentals: The operating capacity of alumina plants was relatively stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [1] - Trading Strategy: With the repeated Middle East conflicts, the market is mixed with overseas alumina price cuts and rising freight costs, and the price is expected to remain volatile [1] Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 8645 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton or 0.29% compared to the previous trading day, with a decrease in open interest and an increase in trading volume [2] - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces increased this week, and the operating rate was 25.13%. Social inventory decreased slightly. The production of polysilicon is expected to increase after March, and the prices of silicone and aluminum alloy increased [2] - Trading Strategy: The market is expected to fluctuate between 8100 - 9000. Consider short - selling on rallies if large factories still have复产 plans [2] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 156,980 yuan/ton, up 1.25% [2] - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate decreased, and the price of lithium carbonate decreased. Production increased, and demand for related materials also increased. Inventory decreased in Q1, and the number of inventory days decreased. The funds in the market increased [2] - Trading Strategy: Low inventory supports the price to fluctuate around 150,000 yuan. The decline in inventory in March is expected to narrow, and the subsequent upward driving force depends on the prosperity of the new energy vehicle terminal market [2] Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 42760 yuan/ton, up 0.40% compared to the previous trading day, with a decrease in open interest and a slight decrease in trading volume [2] - Fundamentals: Weekly production remained flat, and industry inventory increased by 4.2%. The prices of downstream products declined slightly, and the production schedules of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in March improved but were still relatively weak year - on - year [2] - Trading Strategy: Due to position limits, the liquidity of polysilicon futures contracts is limited. The market is expected to fluctuate between 40000 - 44000, and attention should be paid to the actual purchase order prices of downstream products [2] Tin - Market Performance: Tin prices continued to fluctuate weakly [2] - Fundamentals: The conflict between the US and Iran intensified, increasing oil prices and reducing the expectation of Fed rate cuts. The supply of tin ore remained tight [2] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [2] Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3138 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton compared to the previous night session [4] - Fundamentals: The apparent demand for rebar increased by 790,000 tons to 1.77 million tons, and production increased by 220,000 tons to 1.95 million tons. The spot market trading gradually recovered, and the short - term supply and demand were weak [4] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 3100 - 3160 for RB05 [4] Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 809 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton compared to the previous night session [4] - Fundamentals: The molten iron production decreased by 64,000 tons to 2.212 million tons, and port inventory increased by 7 million tons to 119 million tons. Coke prices were cut, and steel mill profits were poor [4] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 780 - 820 for I05 [4] Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1177.5 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton compared to the previous night session [4] - Fundamentals: The molten iron production decreased, coke prices were cut, and steel mill profits were poor. Supply at ports was high, and inventory was differentiated [4] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 1140 - 1210 for JM05 [4] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans were strong in the short term [5] - Fundamentals: There was an expected high yield in South America, and Brazil's harvest was over half. US soybean crushing was strong, and exports met expectations. The global supply - demand was expected to be loose [5] - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to macro - crude oil and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is also strong in the short term, but unilateral trading is more difficult [5] Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices were strong, and spot prices continued to rise [5] - Fundamentals: The grain sales progress was close to 70%, with low pressure and weak willingness. Port and downstream inventories were low, and downstream industries were in losses [5] - Trading Strategy: With little remaining grain and downstream restocking, the futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [5] Fats and Oils - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil was strong in the short term [6] - Fundamentals: Supply was expected to enter the seasonal increase period, and exports from Malaysia from March 1 - 10 increased by 38% [6] - Trading Strategy: Fats and oils follow crude oil to be strong in the short term, but unilateral trading is difficult. Pay attention to later crude oil and production in the producing areas [6] White Sugar - Market Performance: The 05 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5443 yuan/ton, up 0.17% [6] - Fundamentals: Rising oil prices may lead to a decrease in the sugar - making ratio in Brazil, and India's production increase was less than expected. Domestic production in Guangxi increased, and the market was affected by macro - funds, oil prices, and policies [6] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [6] Cotton - Market Performance: ICE US cotton futures prices rose and then fell overnight, and domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated strongly [6] - Fundamentals: US cotton export sales increased, and Australian cotton exports decreased in January. The domestic cotton textile PMI decreased in February [6] - Trading Strategy: Buy on dips, with a reference price range of 15300 - 15800 yuan/ton [6] Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices rebounded slightly, and spot prices were stable [6] - Fundamentals: Demand recovered, inventory decreased, but the supply was sufficient due to weak culling willingness in the breeding end [6] - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate with the recovery of demand [6] Hogs - Market Performance: Hog futures prices were weak, and spot prices continued to fall [6] - Fundamentals: The slaughter volume in March increased significantly, the slaughter weight was high, and demand was in the seasonal off - season [6] - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to strong supply and weak demand [6] Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market Performance: The main LLDPE contract rose slightly. The spot price in North China was 8050 yuan/ton, and the basis was weak [7] - Fundamentals: There were no new device put - ins in the first half of the year. Due to the US - Iran conflict, domestic production was expected to decrease, and imports were also expected to decline. Downstream demand improved [7] - Trading Strategy: In the short term, follow crude oil fluctuations, and pay attention to geopolitical conflicts. In the medium term, short on rallies as the supply - demand pressure increases [7] PVC - Market Performance: V05 closed at 5790, up 2% [8] - Fundamentals: PVC prices were boosted by oil prices, and the supply was stable. Downstream factories were resuming work, and social inventory was at a new high [8] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see due to balanced supply and demand and high valuation [8] Glass - Market Performance: Fg05 closed at 1136, up 2% [8] - Fundamentals: Glass prices were driven by the commodity market atmosphere. Supply decreased, inventory increased, and downstream processing enterprises resumed work late. The real estate market was weak [8] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to do a long - short spread trade due to reduced supply and balanced demand, with medium valuation [8] PP - Market Performance: The main PP contract rose slightly. The spot price in East China was 8230 yuan/ton, and the basis was weak. The export window was open [8] - Fundamentals: In the short term, new device put - ins decreased, and some devices may reduce production due to the US - Iran conflict. Downstream demand improved [8] - Trading Strategy: In the short term, follow crude oil fluctuations. In the long - term, the market will be in a range - bound state with a short - on - rallies strategy [8] Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil prices rose again due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf [8] - Fundamentals: Iran's oil production was 3.3 million barrels per day, and exports were 1.8 million barrels per day. Most of its production and exports were concentrated in specific areas and passed through the Strait of Hormuz [8] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to participate in the market through options to control risks, such as buying out - of - the - money call options for those worried about rising oil prices and buying out - of - the - money put options for those worried about falling oil prices [8] Styrene - Market Performance: The main EB contract fluctuated slightly. The spot price in East China was 10000 yuan/ton, and the trading atmosphere was average [9] - Fundamentals: The inventory of pure benzene was at a normal - to - high level, and the supply - demand of pure benzene and styrene improved in the short term due to the US - Iran conflict. Downstream enterprises' inventory was high, and the operating rate was improving [9] - Trading Strategy: In the short term, follow crude oil fluctuations and pay attention to geopolitical conflicts. In the long - term, the supply - demand will weaken as the conflict eases [9] Soda Ash - Market Performance: Sa05 closed at 1280, up 2% [9] - Fundamentals: Soda ash prices were driven by rising overseas natural gas prices. Supply recovered, inventory was relatively stable, and downstream demand was mixed [9] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see due to increased supply and weak demand, with medium valuation [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Amid the US - Iran conflict, global risk preferences are disrupted, with rising oil prices, weakened Fed rate - cut expectations, and a rapid rise in US Treasury yields. The domestic two - sessions continue with moderately loose monetary and more proactive fiscal policies. Attention should be paid to the war situation and risk control [4]. - The economic recovery's sustainability needs further observation, and there is still room for loose monetary policy. The Iran geopolitical conflict and rising inflation may put pressure on the bond market, and the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. - Gold prices are in a narrow - range shock. The US inflation was in a moderate decline before the Middle - East conflict, but the current rise in energy prices may increase price pressure, suppressing precious metal prices in the short term [10]. - The short - term uncertainty of the Middle - East war remains, but the probability of further escalation is low. Copper prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, while aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. Zinc prices may break downward, and lead prices are expected to stop falling and gradually recover. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate, and tin prices are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and alumina prices are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Stainless steel prices are expected to rise in a fluctuating manner, and casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain strong [13][15][17][18][20][22][23][26][27][29]. - The black - building materials sector's fundamentals are weaker than expected before the festival. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. Coking coal and coke prices may fluctuate or have a small - scale rebound in the short term, and are optimistic in the long term. Glass prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate with the coal - chemical sector. Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices may have short - term rebound opportunities. Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate [32][34][38][39][42][43][46][49][51]. - For the energy - chemical sector, rubber trading should be flexible. Crude oil recommends a short - term bearish strategic allocation. Methanol suggests taking profits at high prices. Urea suggests short - selling at high prices. Pure benzene and styrene suggest empty - position waiting. PVC and ethylene glycol may rebound in the short term but need to pay attention to risks. PTA, p - xylene, polyethylene, and polypropylene prices have their own characteristics and corresponding trading strategies [56][58][60][62][64][66][68][70][72][74][76]. - For the agricultural products sector, pig prices are expected to be weakly stable in the short term, egg prices may have a short - term rebound and then be sold short, bean - and - rapeseed meal prices suggest short - term waiting and seeing, oil prices are bullish in the medium term, sugar prices may rebound, and cotton prices may rise if downstream starts up well [79][81][83][85][89][91]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - Financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market News**: The IEA's 32 member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves. Trump said the military action against Iran was "almost over". The National Supercomputing Internet will distribute 10 million Tokens to each OpenClaw user for free for 2 weeks. The US February unadjusted CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 2.5% year - on - year [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: The basis annualized ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy View**: Pay attention to the war situation and control risks [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: On March 11, the winning yields of the Ministry of Finance's 2 - issue treasury bonds were higher than the ChinaBond valuations. The IEA proposed to release the largest - ever oil reserves. The central bank conducted 265 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 140 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy View**: The economic recovery's sustainability needs observation, and there is still room for loose monetary policy. The Iran conflict and rising inflation may put pressure on the bond market, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market News**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver prices all declined. The US February CPI and core CPI were stable for two consecutive months. Iran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, and the IEA will release 400 million barrels of oil reserves. The Trump administration will launch trade investigations [8][9]. - **Strategy View**: Gold prices are in a narrow - range shock. The US inflation was in a moderate decline before the conflict, but the current energy price rise may increase price pressure, suppressing precious metal prices in the short term. Be cautiously bearish on precious metals [10]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market News**: The Middle - East war led to copper price fluctuations. LME and domestic warehouse inventories changed, and the spot premium changed [12]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term uncertainty of the Middle - East war remains, but the probability of further escalation is low. Copper prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market News**: The Middle - East war led to concerns about aluminum supply, and aluminum prices were strong. Warehouse inventories and futures positions changed [14]. - **Strategy View**: The supply risk in the Middle - East remains, and domestic downstream resumption of work will reduce the inventory accumulation pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market News**: Zinc prices declined. Warehouse inventories, basis, and import and export data are provided [16][17]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic zinc industry is weak. The Iran conflict has little impact on zinc ore supply. Zinc prices may break downward and are expected to fluctuate widely [17]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market News**: Lead prices rose. Warehouse inventories, basis, and other data are provided [18]. - **Strategy View**: The lead industry has problems such as high inventory and low downstream start - up. Lead prices are expected to stop falling and gradually recover [18]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices rose slightly. Spot prices and cost data are provided [19]. - **Strategy View**: In the medium term, the RKAB quota reduction policy in Indonesia will support nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [20]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market News**: Tin prices declined slightly. Supply is tight, and demand has not fully recovered [21]. - **Strategy View**: The market is bullish on tin prices, but attention should be paid to the current situation of loose supply and demand and rising inventory. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely [22]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market News**: Lithium carbonate prices declined. Spot and futures prices and other data are provided [23]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial driving force is limited, and lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market News**: Alumina prices rose. Warehouse inventories, basis, and other data are provided [24]. - **Strategy View**: Maintenance increases and production delays reduce the inventory accumulation rate. The futures price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to potential driving factors [25][26]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless steel prices declined slightly. Spot prices, warehouse inventories, and other data are provided [27]. - **Strategy View**: The market procurement atmosphere has improved, and stainless steel prices are expected to rise in a fluctuating manner [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Casting aluminum alloy prices rose. Warehouse inventories, trading volume, and other data are provided [28]. - **Strategy View**: The cost is strong, and demand is expected to improve. Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain strong [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market News**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose. Warehouse inventories, trading volume, and other data are provided [31]. - **Strategy View**: The black - building materials sector's fundamentals are weaker than expected before the festival. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron ore prices rose. Warehouse inventories, basis, and other data are provided [33]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas iron ore supply fluctuates at a high level, and high inventory suppresses prices. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [34]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market News**: Coking coal and coke prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [36]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term US - Iran conflict drives up the market sentiment. Coking coal and coke prices may fluctuate or have a small - scale rebound in the short term, and are optimistic in the long term [38][39]. 3.3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: Glass prices rose, and soda ash prices rose. Warehouse inventories, trading volume, and other data are provided [41][43]. - **Strategy View**: Glass demand has improved slightly, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate with the coal - chemical sector [42][43]. 3.3.5 Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Market News**: Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and other data are provided [44]. - **Strategy View**: The US - Iran conflict drives up the market sentiment. Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron prices may have short - term rebound opportunities [46]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: Industrial silicon prices declined slightly, and polysilicon prices rose slightly. Warehouse inventories, trading volume, and other data are provided [48][50]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon supply and demand are expected to increase in March, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Polysilicon supply and demand are expected to increase, and prices are expected to fluctuate [49][51]. 3.4 Energy - Chemical 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices rebounded. Tire enterprise start - up rates, inventory, and spot prices are provided [53][54][55]. - **Strategy View**: Trade flexibly and set stop - losses. Consider opening or holding a long - NR and short - RU2609 position [56]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude oil and related refined oil prices declined [57]. - **Strategy View**: Adopt a short - term bearish strategic allocation for crude oil, and have corresponding trading strategies for spreads [58]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market News**: Methanol spot and futures prices changed [59]. - **Strategy View**: Take profits at high prices [60]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market News**: Urea spot and futures prices changed [61]. - **Strategy View**: Short - sell at high prices [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: Pure benzene and styrene prices declined. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [63]. - **Strategy View**: Empty - position waiting [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices rose. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [65]. - **Strategy View**: PVC prices may rebound in the short term but need to pay attention to risks [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [67]. - **Strategy View**: Ethylene glycol prices may rebound in the short term but need to pay attention to risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [69]. - **Strategy View**: PTA prices may have a short - term correction, and PXN may rise in the future, but pay attention to risks [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [71]. - **Strategy View**: p - Xylene prices are expected to decline in March, and may enter a de - stocking cycle. Pay attention to risks [72]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [73]. - **Strategy View**: Short - sell the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [74]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [75]. - **Strategy View**: PP prices are affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts and long - term production - matching issues [76]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Pigs - **Market News**: Pig prices were half - stable and half - falling. Supply and demand data are provided [78]. - **Strategy View**: Pig prices are expected to be weakly stable in the short term. Short - sell on rebounds for the near - end contracts and wait and see for the far - end contracts [79]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market News**: Egg prices were mostly stable with some narrow fluctuations. Supply and demand data are provided [80]. - **Strategy View**: Short - sell on rebounds for the near - end contracts and pay attention to cost support for the far - end contracts [81]. 3.5.3 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: Soybean import, production, and export data are provided [82]. - **Strategy View**: Wait and see in the short term [83]. 3.5.4 Oils - **Market News**: Palm oil production, export, and inventory data from Indonesia and Malaysia are provided [84]. - **Strategy View**: Bullish on oils in the medium term [85]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar production, export, and inventory data from India, Brazil, and Thailand are provided [86][88]. - **Strategy View**: Sugar prices may rebound. Participate in long positions at low prices [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton production, export, and inventory data are provided [90]. - **Strategy View**: Buy at low prices if downstream starts up well [91].

2026年03月11日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：周二夜盘贵金属走强，以伦敦金计价的国际金价上涨 0.98%,收报 5190.097 美元/盎司;国内方面， | | | | 金 | 金交所 9999 前一交易日上涨 0.39%，收于 1144.78;上期所沪金主力合约上涨 0.88%,收于 1150 元/克。 | | | | 属 | 基本面：伊朗称不会相信美国的任何承诺，"军事行动进入全新阶段"。国内黄金 ETF 继续大幅流入 2.5 | 吨； | | | | COMEX 黄金库存为 1017.6 吨，-6 吨；上期所黄金库存为 104.9 吨，维持不变；SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为 | | 1073 | | | 吨，+2.7 吨；伦敦黄金库存 2 月底 9208.6 吨，1 月底为 9155.8 吨；COMEX 白银库存为 10739 吨，-30 | 吨； | | | | 上期所白银库存为 259 吨，+6 吨；iShares 白银 ETF 持仓为 15664 吨，-56 ...

2026 年 3 月 10 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 原油将震荡偏弱 白银、锡期货将震 荡偏强 黄金、铜期货将偏强震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 【宏观资讯和交易提示】 1、2026 年度国家立法新看点出炉。其中，围绕构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制，将制定国有资产 法，修改企业破产法、税收征收管理法等。围绕加快建设金融强国，将制定金融法、金融稳定法，修改中 国人民银行法、银行业监督管理法。今年还将加强人工智能等领域立法研究。 2、春节假期因素叠加消费需求恢复，中国 2 月 CPI 同比上涨 1.3%，为近三年来最高，扣除食品和能 源价格的核心 CPI 同比上涨 1.8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly influenced by the Middle - East geopolitical situation, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, which impacts various commodities such as metals, energy, and agricultural products. Different commodities show different trends and trading strategies due to factors like supply - demand relationships, inventory changes, and cost fluctuations. [1][2][5][8] - Inflation may rise due to the tense Middle - East situation, but the logic of central banks' gold - buying and de - dollarization remains unchanged. [1] - The prices of many commodities are in a state of wide - range fluctuations, and trading strategies vary according to different market conditions, including holding long positions, short - term trading, and waiting and seeing. [1][2][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: On Monday, international gold prices denominated in London gold fell by 0.55% to $5139.57 per ounce. In China, the gold of 9999 in the Gold Exchange rose 0.09% to 1140.38, and the main contract of Shanghai gold in the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.07% to 1140 yuan per gram. [1] - Fundamental Factors: Trump said the US military action against Iran would end "soon" but not this week, and some sanctions would be lifted to stabilize oil prices. The G7 considered releasing 3 - 4 billion barrels of oil reserves. Domestic gold ETFs continued to flow in 0.7 tons, while COMEX and Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventories decreased. [1] - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions in gold; short - term long positions in silver are recommended. [1] Basic Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices oscillated weakly. [2] - Fundamental Factors: Trump said the Iran war was basically over, and metals turned up after the oil price dropped. The supply of copper ore was increasingly tight, and there were discounts in the spot market. [2] - Trading Strategy: Wait and see due to the possible recurrence of the Middle - East situation. [2] Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.95% to 24950 yuan per ton. [2] - Fundamental Factors: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate rose slightly. [2] - Trading Strategy: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely due to the dual - impact of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. [2] Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract increased by 2.58% to 2905 yuan per ton. [2] - Fundamental Factors: The operating capacity of alumina plants was stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. [2] - Trading Strategy: The alumina price is expected to oscillate due to the dual - impact of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. [3] Zinc and Lead - Market Performance: On March 9, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 24260 yuan/ton and 16775 yuan/ton respectively. Zinc inventories increased by 0.59 million tons, and lead inventories increased by 0.65 million tons. [3] - Fundamental Factors: In March, the supply and demand of lead ingots in China both increased, and the zinc market was under pressure from macro - risk aversion and high domestic inventories. [3] - Trading Strategy: Short - sell lead at high prices, and wait and see or short - term trade in the zinc market. [3] Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 8670 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [3] - Fundamental Factors: The number of open furnaces increased, social inventories decreased slightly, and the production of related industries increased. [3] - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to oscillate between 8100 - 9000 yuan/ton. Consider short - selling if large factories plan to resume production. [3] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 161,060 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.14%. [3] - Fundamental Factors: The supply increased, the demand of related materials increased, and the inventory decreased. [3] - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to oscillate around 150,000 yuan. The subsequent upward drive depends on the prosperity of the new - energy vehicle terminal consumption. [3] Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 42700 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.86%. [3] - Fundamental Factors: The weekly output was flat, the industry inventory increased, and the downstream prices declined slightly. [3] - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to oscillate between 40000 - 44000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the actual purchase order prices of downstream. [4] Tin - Market Performance: Tin prices oscillated strongly. [4] - Fundamental Factors: The supply of tin ore was tight, and the warehouse receipts decreased. [4] - Trading Strategy: Wait and see due to the possible recurrence of the Middle - East situation. [4] Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3118 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton. [5] - Fundamental Factors: Steel inventories increased, the spot market trading gradually recovered, and the supply - demand was short - term weak. [5] - Trading Strategy: Close long positions, and aggressive investors can try short - term short - selling. The reference range for RB05 is 3070 - 3130 yuan/ton. [5] Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 786 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. [5] - Fundamental Factors: The shipments of Australia and Brazil decreased, the iron ore supply - demand was neutral, and there was a structural contradiction. [5] - Trading Strategy: Wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 760 - 790 yuan/ton. [5] Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1160 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton. [5] - Fundamental Factors: The iron - making output decreased, the coke price was expected to be lowered, and the overall inventory was low. [5] - Trading Strategy: Close long positions, and aggressive investors can try short - term short - selling. The reference range for JM05 is 1110 - 1170 yuan/ton. [5] Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: The overnight CBOT soybean price rose and then fell. [6] - Fundamental Factors: South America had a good harvest expectation, and the US soybean demand was strong. [6] - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the macro - oil price and the realization of South American production. [6] Corn - Market Performance: The corn futures price rose and then fell, and the spot price in the Northeast continued to rise. [6] - Fundamental Factors: The grain - selling progress was slow, the downstream inventory was low, and the price was dominated by the producing area. [6] - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly. [6] Oils and Fats - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil rose. [6] - Fundamental Factors: The production in February decreased, and the export decreased. The inventory at the end of February was expected to decline. [6] - Trading Strategy: The short - term oils and fats are strong, but the single - side trading is difficult. Pay attention to the oil price and production. [6] White Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5453 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27%. [6] - Fundamental Factors: The international sugar price rose due to the expected decrease in the sugar - making ratio, and the domestic sugar production increased. [6] - Trading Strategy: Wait and see. [6] Cotton - Market Performance: The overnight ICE US cotton futures price oscillated strongly, and the international crude oil price continued to rise. [6] - Fundamental Factors: The Brazilian cotton export increased, and the domestic textile enterprise inventory decreased. [6] - Trading Strategy: Buy on dips, with a price range of 15100 - 15700 yuan/ton. [6] Eggs - Market Performance: The egg futures price rose and then fell, and the spot price rose. [7] - Fundamental Factors: It is the traditional off - season for egg demand, and the supply is sufficient. [7] - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly. [7] Pigs - Market Performance: The pig futures price rose and then fell, and the spot price continued to decline. [7] - Fundamental Factors: The supply pressure is large after the Spring Festival, and the demand is in the off - season. [7] - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly. [7] Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - Market Performance: The main LLDPE contract rose significantly. The spot price in North China was 8800 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed. [8] - Fundamental Factors: The domestic supply decreased, and the demand improved. [8] - Trading Strategy: Short - term follow the oil price, and mid - term short - sell at high prices. [8] PTA - Market Performance: The PXCFR China price was 1346 US dollars/ton, and the PTA East China spot price was 7200 yuan/ton. [8] - Fundamental Factors: The PX supply was affected by the conflict, and the PTA supply was high. The PX inventory decreased, and the PTA inventory increased. [8] - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions in PX, and wait and see for PTA. [8] PP - Market Performance: The main PP contract rose significantly. The East China spot price was 9000 yuan/ton, the import window was closed, and the export window was open. [9] - Fundamental Factors: The supply pressure decreased, and the demand improved. [9] - Trading Strategy: Short - term follow the oil price, and mid - long - term short - sell at high prices. [9] MEG - Market Performance: The MEG East China spot price was 4813 yuan/ton. [9] - Fundamental Factors: The domestic and overseas supply decreased, the inventory in East China ports increased, and the MEG inventory decreased significantly. [9] - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions in EG, but be aware of the risk of a sharp correction. [9] Crude Oil - Market Performance: The oil price fluctuated sharply. It rose first and then fell due to the news of the G7 releasing oil reserves. [9] - Fundamental Factors: Iran's oil production and export were affected by the conflict, and the passage through the Strait of Hormuz was severely restricted. [9] - Trading Strategy: Participate in trading through options to control risks. [9] Styrene - Market Performance: The main EB contract rose significantly. The East China spot price was 12000 yuan/ton, and the import window was closed. [10] - Fundamental Factors: The pure benzene and styrene inventories improved, and the downstream demand gradually recovered. [10] - Trading Strategy: Short - term follow the oil price, and mid - long - term the supply - demand will weaken. [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, inflation expectations, and supply - demand relationships. Different commodities have different trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals [1][2][3][4][5][6][8][9][10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Gold Market - **Market Performance**: International gold prices fell 1.12% to $5082 per ounce, and international silver prices fell 1.4% to $82.2 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: With the military action between the US, Israel and Iran entering the sixth day, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, causing a temporary 8% surge in WTI crude oil. The initial margin for COMEX 100 gold futures was reduced from 9% to 7%, and for COMEX 5000 silver futures from 18% to 14%. Domestic gold ETFs had a significant inflow of 3.1 tons [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold; reduce long positions in silver and wait and see [1]. Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated weakly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The short - term focus is on the US - Iran war. The expectation of stagflation due to rising oil prices and the delay of interest - rate cut expectations put pressure on metals. The large amount of copper delivered in London and the rapid accumulation of global visible inventories suppressed copper prices [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a buying point after stabilization [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.08% to 24,815 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the price of electrolytic aluminum was under pressure at night, there is still upward potential due to the systemic risk of the global aluminum supply chain caused by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.65% to 2800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants had both maintenance and复产, and the operating capacity continued to decline. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The alumina price is expected to fluctuate due to the intertwined influence of factors such as new capacity expansion expectations and the Middle - East geopolitical conflict [2][3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8565 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59%. The trading volume decreased by 31.81%, and the position decreased by 7.36% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of blast furnaces in operation increased by 19 this week, with an operating rate of 25%. Both weekly warehouse receipts and social inventories increased slightly. The production of polysilicon in February was within 80,000 tons, and it is expected to reach nearly 90,000 tons in March after resuming work [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the actual start - up of large factories. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 8600 yuan. If the duration of large - factory production cuts is limited, consider short - selling at high prices [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 155,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.8% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of SMM Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) increased by $25 to $2200 per ton. The SMM lithium carbonate price increased by 2000 yuan to 156,000 yuan/ton. The weekly production increased by 768 tons to 22,590 tons. SMM expects the production in March to be 106,390 tons, an 8.7% increase from January [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The low - inventory situation in the short - term off - season supports the price to fluctuate around 150,000 yuan. The subsequent upward driving force depends on the prosperity of the new - energy vehicle terminal consumption [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 42,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.19%. The trading volume decreased by 19.89%, and the position decreased by 1.94% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly production remained flat, and the industry inventory increased by 3.5% week - on - week. The warehouse receipts increased significantly last week. The prices of downstream products were stable, and some products of JinkoSolar will increase in price by 30 - 40% [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by factors such as the reduction of spot quotes by leading factories, the expectation of resuming production in March, and the unresolved position limit, the market sentiment is pessimistic. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly between 40,000 - 53,000 yuan [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices fluctuated weakly [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The US - Iran conflict and concerns about AI narratives dominate the market. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the resumption of production in Wa State is within expectations. The domestic warehouse receipts decreased by 418 tons, and the premium of deliverable brands is 1000 - 1500 yuan [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a buying point after stabilization [4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3067 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The apparent demand for rebar increased by 180,000 tons to 980,000 tons, and the production increased by 80,000 tons to 1.73 million tons. The inventory accumulation of steel products is slowing down seasonally, but the inventory level is at a record high. The supply - demand of building materials and hot - rolled coils shows different trends [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try short - selling rebar in the short - term. The reference range for RB05 is 3040 - 3100 yuan [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 760.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the production restrictions during the Two Sessions, the molten iron production decreased by 57,000 tons to 2.28 million tons. The port inventory of iron ore increased by 30,000 tons to 179 million tons. The steel mill profit is poor, and the blast - furnace production may decrease slightly. The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the inventory of mainstream iron ore at ports is at a historical low [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The reference range for I05 is 750 - 780 yuan [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1091.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.5 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the production restrictions during the Two Sessions, the molten iron production decreased by 57,000 tons to 2.28 million tons. The first round of coke price increase was implemented before the Spring Festival, and now steel mills are considering a price cut. The steel mill profit is poor, and the increase in blast - furnace production may be slow. The port customs clearance volume remains high, and the inventory at different links shows a differentiated pattern [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try short - selling coking coal in the short - term. The reference range for JM05 is 1050 - 1110 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in South America, and Brazil is in the middle of the harvest season. On the demand side, the US soybean crushing is strong, and the export expectation is also strong. Overall, the supply - demand of US soybeans is expected to improve, but the global supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the demand for US soybeans and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and pay attention to policies and South American production [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices were strong, and spot prices continued to rise [8]. - **Fundamentals**: More than 60% of the grain has been sold, and the selling pressure is not large, but the selling intention is not strong, and the progress is slow. The inventory at ports and downstream is low, and downstream industries are in losses. The spot price is still dominated by the production area [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The effective supply is limited, and downstream replenishment is expected. The futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [8]. Fats and Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose yesterday [8]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, MPOA estimates that the production in Malaysia in February decreased by 16% month - on - month, but it is expected to enter the seasonal production - increasing period in March. On the demand side, ITS shows that the export in February decreased by 21% month - on - month. The market estimates that the inventory at the end of February decreased by 6.5% to 2.63 million tons [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fats and oils market is in a weak cycle, but the recent sharp rise in crude oil has led to a rebound. Pay attention to the later crude oil price and production in the production area [8]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE US cotton futures prices fluctuated and fell overnight, and international crude oil futures prices fluctuated strongly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, as of the week ending February 26, the net export sales of US cotton in 2025/2026 increased by 150,400 bales, a 41% decrease from the previous week and a 50% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The cotton export from Brazil in February was 270,000 tons, a 2% decrease year - on - year. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated. The sharp increase in crude oil prices led to an increase in the prices of chemical fiber products. The PMI in China in February was 49%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips, with a price range of 15,000 - 15,600 yuan/ton [8]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices continued to fall [8]. - **Fundamentals**: It is the traditional off - season for egg demand. Although the catering and school sectors have some purchasing demand after resuming work and school, the impact on egg prices is expected to be limited. The overall supply is sufficient, and egg prices are expected to remain low [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The demand is weakening, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Hog futures prices were weak, and spot prices decreased slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Seasonally, the slaughter volume of the breeding side will increase as the upstream and downstream resume work. After the Spring Festival, the supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season. The futures and spot prices are expected to be weak. Pay attention to the recent slaughter volume and slaughter rhythm [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract rose slightly yesterday. The low - price spot price in North China was 7400 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract weakened. The overseas market price rose slightly, and the import window was closed [9]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, there are no new installations in the first half of the year, and some existing installations plan to reduce production or shut down due to the expected shortage of crude oil caused by the US - Iran conflict. The import volume is expected to decrease. On the demand side, downstream industries are gradually resuming work, and the demand is improving month - on - month. March and April are the peak seasons for agricultural film demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, the inventory in the industrial chain is slightly decreasing, and the basis is strengthening. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, but the upward space is limited by the import window. In the medium - term, as the US - Iran situation eases and new installations are put into operation, the supply - demand pressure will increase, and it is recommended to short at high prices [10]. PVC - **Market Performance**: v05 closed at 5016, an increase of 0.9% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Driven by the rise in crude oil prices, PVC prices continued to rebound. The domestic supply is stable, with an expected production of 2.148 million tons in January, a 0.49% month - on - month increase and a 2.46% year - on - year increase. The downstream factories are gradually resuming work. The real - estate market was weak in December, with a 25% year - on - year decrease in new construction and completion. The social inventory reached a new high [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is balanced and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. Overseas costs are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The CFR China price of PX was $1055 per ton, and the East China spot price of PTA was 5800 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 34 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX remains at a historical high. Some domestic and overseas PX installations are under maintenance. The supply of PTA has increased to a high level. The polyester factory load is at a seasonal low, and the comprehensive inventory pressure is not large. The profit of polyester products has improved [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: If the geopolitical conflict continues to ferment, it will affect the raw material supply. The PX long - spread position can be continued to hold, and it is recommended to wait and see for PTA due to the inventory accumulation pattern [10]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1055, an increase of 0.6% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass prices are under pressure due to high inventory. The supply has decreased significantly, and there are plans to resume production in North China recently. The inventory has accumulated again. The real - estate market was weak in December, with a 25% year - on - year decrease in new construction and completion [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is decreasing and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract rose slightly yesterday. The East China spot price of PP was 7450 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was strong. The overseas market price rose slightly, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [10]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the new installations in the first half of the year are reduced, and some installations plan to reduce production or shut down due to the shortage of raw materials caused by the US - Iran conflict. The supply pressure is significantly reduced, and the export window is open. On the demand side, the downstream is gradually resuming work, and the demand is improving month - on - month [10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, the inventory in the industrial chain is decreasing, the basis is strengthening, and the demand is improving month - on - month. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, but the upward space is limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long - term, as the US - Iran situation eases and new installations are put into operation, the supply - demand pattern will improve slightly but the contradiction will still be large. It is recommended to short at high prices [11]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The East China spot price of MEG was 4132 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 31 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In 2025, China imported about 1.05 million tons of MEG from Iran, accounting for 15% of imports and about 4% of apparent supply. From the Middle East, it imported 4.74 million tons, accounting for 61% of imports and about 17% of apparent supply. In March, MEG installations will have more maintenance, and polyester demand will pick up, leading to inventory reduction. However, the current social inventory is at a historical high [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 5, 2026, equity index futures rose, and most commodities showed high performances, with energy & chemicals leading the raise. Geopolitical tensions have a significant impact on the prices of crude oil and related chemical products, and the future price trends of these products are expected to be volatile due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation [11][13]. - The Chinese government has set the economic growth target for 2026 at 4.5% - 5%, and plans to issue RMB 1.3 trillion worth of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, with a deficit ratio of around 4%. These policies are expected to have an impact on the macro - economic and financial markets [39][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On March 5, equity index futures rose (IF rose 0.9% and IM rose 0.8%), and most commodities performed well, with energy & chemicals leading the increase. In CGB futures, TL dropped 0.05% and TF dropped 0.03%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Sodium Hydroxide (up 7.0% with open interest decreasing 5.8% month - on - month), Crude Oil (up 6.4% with open interest decreasing 10.9% month - on - month), and Benzene (up 6.2% with open interest increasing 8.8% month - on - month). The top three decliners were LPG (down 3.6% with open interest decreasing 3.8% month - on - month), Methanol (down 3.5% with open interest decreasing 12.5% month - on - month), and SCFIS(Europe) (down 3.4% with open interest decreasing 5.0% month - on - month) [11][12][13]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Crude Oil**: On March 5, the crude oil main contract hit the upward limit at one point but pulled back in the late trading session, closing up 6.4% at 664.1 yuan/barrel. U.S. crude oil inventories continued seasonal build - up at a slower pace. Geopolitical tensions led to reduced supply, and the future price is expected to fluctuate [17][18][20]. - **Benzene**: On March 5, the main contract of Benzene rose 6.2% to 7251 yuan/ton. Crude oil price fluctuations driven by geopolitical tensions are the key driver of benzene prices. Supply is affected by crude oil swings, and refineries may cut operating rates. Demand is affected by styrene maintenance and restart news. Although inventory pressure remains, Q1 fundamentals have improved month - on - month from Q4 [24][25][27]. - **Ethenylbenzene**: On March 5, the main contract of Ethenylbenzene rose 6.0% to 8656 yuan/ton. Geopolitical tensions boosted crude oil, which in turn lifted ethenylbenzene prices. Supply is expected to drop due to plant maintenance, and demand is recovering after the Spring Festival. It is expected to destock in March [31][32][34]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro - The Government Work Report stated that the main expected development goals for 2026 are economic growth of 4.5% - 5%, the urban surveyed unemployment rate kept at around 5.5% and over 12 million new urban jobs created, the consumer price index rising by about 2%, a basic balance of international payments, grain output reaching approximately 1.4 trillion jin, and a reduction of around 3.8% in carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP. The deficit ratio is projected at around 4% for the year, with a deficit scale of RMB 5.89 trillion, an increase of RMB 230 billion over the previous year. RMB 1.3 trillion worth of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will be issued [39][40]. 3.2.2 Trading - On March 5, 2026, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) adjusted the price limits and trading margin ratios for crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and fuel oil futures contracts [40][44][45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trend outlooks and fundamental analysis for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemical products. Geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on the prices and trends of many commodities. For example, the conflict in the Middle East has led to concerns about inflation, affecting the prices of gold, oil, and other commodities. Additionally, factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, and inventory levels also play important roles in determining the price trends of different commodities [5][8][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out, and the price is affected by factors such as inflation concerns and changes in the US dollar index. The trend strength is 1 [5]. - **Silver**: In a volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 1 [2]. - **Platinum**: Continues to be weak, with a trend strength of 0 [25]. - **Palladium**: High - frequency data is sluggish, and it is in a low - level volatile state, with a trend strength of - 1 [25]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The narrowing of the spot discount restricts the price decline. The trend strength is 0 [8]. - **Zinc**: In a range - bound pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [11]. - **Lead**: The reduction of overseas inventory restricts the price decline, with a trend strength of 0 [15]. - **Tin**: In a volatile adjustment, with a trend strength of 0 [18]. - **Aluminum**: A slight correction, with a trend strength of 0 [22]. - **Alumina**: In a sideways volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [22]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [22]. - **Nickel**: The reality of the Indonesian ore end is catching up, and beware of speculative attributes in March, with a trend strength of 0 [30]. - **Stainless Steel**: The contradiction at the ore end increases marginally, and the cost support center moves up, with a trend strength of 0 [30]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Although not specifically mentioned in detail, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to concerns about supply, pushing up oil prices [5][8]. - **Fuel Oil**: Maintains a retracement trend and short - term high - volatility, with a trend strength of - 1 [133]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In a weak adjustment, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels continues to decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [133]. - **Natural Gas**: Not specifically analyzed in detail, but geopolitical factors may affect its supply and price [91]. - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: In a wide - range volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [58]. - **Coke**: A first - round price cut has begun, and it is in a wide - range volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [57]. - **Steam Coal**: Market sentiment is weakening, and the short - term price fluctuates within a narrow range, with a trend strength of - 1 [62]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The spill - over of sentiment finally arrives, showing a short - term strong performance, with a trend strength of 1 [158]. - **Soybean Oil**: Supported by the cost of US soybeans, it may break through upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [158]. - **Soybean Meal**: Rebounds and fluctuates, and pay attention to the situation in the Middle East, with a trend strength of 0 [165]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable and slightly strong, and the futures price fluctuates in adjustment, with a trend strength of 0 [165]. - **Corn**: Fluctuates strongly, with a trend strength of 0 [168]. - **Sugar**: In a range - bound arrangement, with a trend strength of 0 [172]. - **Cotton**: Waiting for new drivers, with a trend strength of 1 [176]. - **Eggs**: Maintains a volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [180]. - **Hogs**: The inventory pressure is difficult to solve, and the weakness continues, with a trend strength of - 1 [183]. - **Peanuts**: Fluctuates, with a trend strength of 0 [188]. Chemical Products - **P - Xylene (PX)**: In a high - level volatile market, it is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA. The trend strength is 1 [68]. - **Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA)**: In a high - level volatile market, with a trend strength of 1 [68]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: In a high - level volatile market, with a trend strength of 1 [68]. - **Rubber**: Fluctuates weakly, with a trend strength of - 1 [78]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price center moves up, with a trend strength of 1 [81]. - **Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE)**: The expectation of cracking supply contraction continues, and pay short - term high attention to geopolitical factors, with a trend strength of 2 [85]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The C3 raw material remains strong, and the reduction of PDH devices continues, with a trend strength of 2 [85]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supported by strong export expectations, with a trend strength of 1 [90]. - **Paper Pulp**: Fluctuates, with a trend strength of 0 [95]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a trend strength of 0 [102]. - **Methanol**: In a high - level volatile pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [105]. - **Urea**: Fluctuates, with a trend strength of 0 [111]. - **Styrene**: Fluctuates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [115]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little, with a trend strength of 0 [117]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are strong, with a trend strength of 0 [122]. - **Propylene**: The cost end is affected by geopolitical factors, and the fundamentals remain tight, with a trend strength of 1 [122]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: In a range - bound pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [130]. Shipping Index - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Pay attention to geopolitical sentiment disturbances, with a trend strength of 0 [135]. Fibers - **Short - Fiber**: Geopolitical risks are not eliminated, and it is short - term strong, with a trend strength of 1 [148]. - **Bottle - Grade Chip**: Geopolitical risks are not eliminated, and it is short - term strong, with a trend strength of 1 [148]. Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a trend strength of 0 [150]. Aromatics - **Pure Benzene**: Fluctuates strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [155].