Group 1 - The overall equity market experienced adjustments during the week from March 2 to March 6, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.93% to close at 4124.19 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index declining by 2.22% to 14172.63 points [9][11] - The convertible bond market also saw a decline, with the China Convertible Bond Index dropping by 2.07% and the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index decreasing by 2.21% during the week [16] - The bond market showed a general strengthening trend, with the 1-year China government bond yield decreasing by 3.58 basis points, and the 10-year yield down by 0.67 basis points [20] Group 2 - In the commodity market, performance was mixed, with WTI crude oil rising significantly by 35.63%, while COMEX gold and silver fell by 2.17% and 10.27% respectively [10][28] - The South China Commodity Index overall strengthened, with a 6.43% increase, driven by strong performance in energy and chemical sectors, which rose by 15.45% [28] - The market saw active trading in both convertible bonds and underlying stocks, with transaction volumes of 3674.49 billion and 7711.56 billion respectively, indicating a recovery in trading activity [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides individual ratings for various financial instruments: - Bullish: 3-year AAA medium and short-term notes, 10-year Treasury bonds, 2-year Treasury bonds, Wind All A Index, CSI Dividend Total Return Index, Wind Microcap Index, COMEX Gold, IPE Brent Crude Oil [2][5] - Adjustment: Hang Seng Tech Index, STAR 50 Index [2][5] - Sideways: 30-year Treasury bonds, China Securities 2000 Index [2][5] Core View - The report presents the model's forecasts and multi - directional views on various financial instruments, including bonds and stock market indices. It provides the original signals and MA5 values for each instrument, along with the corresponding model views and the duration of the signals [2][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Quant Daily Report: Bonds Show Adjustment Signals - Bullish on 3-year AAA medium and short-term notes, 10-year Treasury bonds, 2-year Treasury bonds, Wind All A Index, CSI Dividend Total Return Index, Wind Microcap Index, COMEX Gold, and IPE Brent Crude Oil [2][5] - Adjustment for Hang Seng Tech Index and STAR 50 Index [2][5] - Sideways for 30-year Treasury bonds and China Securities 2000 Index [2][5] - Details of original signals, MA5 values, model views, and signal durations for each instrument are provided [2][5][6] 2. Forecast Probabilities and Multi - directional Views of Various Instruments in the Past 10 Trading Days - For 30-year Treasury bonds and 3-year AAA medium and short-term notes, data on yields, single - day timing signals, timing signal MA5, and model multi - directional views for each trading day in the past 10 days are presented [6] - Similar data is provided for 10-year Treasury bonds, 2-year Treasury bonds, Wind All A Index, CSI Dividend Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, STAR 50 Index, Wind Microcap Index, China Securities 2000 Index, COMEX Gold, and IPE Brent Crude Oil [6]

Core Viewpoint - The military conflict between the U.S.-Israel alliance and Iran has escalated significantly, with no signs of a ceasefire, leading to widespread market volatility and potential investment opportunities amidst the chaos [1]. Group 1: Global Market Impact - The conflict has permeated global markets, particularly affecting energy, finance, and commodities, with Brent crude oil prices soaring nearly 13% to $82.37 per barrel, and WTI crude reaching $75.33 per barrel [2]. - Iran's threats of oil prices reaching $200 per barrel and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have led to significant disruptions in global oil and LNG trade, affecting approximately 27%-30% of maritime oil transport and 20% of LNG trade [2]. - The conflict has resulted in a supply gap due to damage to Iranian energy facilities, which could interrupt daily exports of 1.5 million barrels [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Safe-haven assets like gold have surged, while global stock markets have experienced significant declines, particularly in South Korea, where the index fell over 6%, triggering a trading halt [3][4]. - The volatility in global currencies has intensified, with emerging markets facing increased capital outflow pressures as investors seek safety [4]. - The rising oil prices have escalated production costs for aluminum and other metals, with Iran's aluminum production capacity being over 800,000 tons per year, representing 2% of global capacity [4]. Group 3: Underlying Factors of Market Volatility - The rigid dependency on Middle Eastern energy and the monopolistic control of the Strait of Hormuz have amplified the conflict's impact on global markets, as many countries rely heavily on this route for energy imports [5]. - The rapid escalation of the conflict has led to a significant release of risk-averse sentiment among investors, resulting in a cycle of panic selling and further market declines [6]. - The inherent vulnerabilities in global supply chains and energy systems have allowed the conflict's effects to spread quickly, highlighting the reliance on Middle Eastern resources [7]. Group 4: Opportunities Amidst Challenges - The ongoing turmoil reflects a deep adjustment in global economic, energy, and financial landscapes, presenting both challenges and new opportunities for investors [8]. - The upcoming Changbai Mountain Forum aims to address these market changes, focusing on investment empowerment and the integration of tourism and culture, while providing insights into the long-term impacts of the conflict on the global economy [8][9]. - The forum will gather key industry figures to discuss strategies for navigating the evolving market landscape and leveraging potential growth areas in the context of the current geopolitical climate [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the market trading narrative shifts from geopolitical risks to inflation risks and economic recession concerns. Due to high uncertainty in the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the downside space for precious metal prices is limited, and they are expected to maintain high volatility. Long - term, the underlying logic for the precious metal bull market is solid. With the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainty, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand from global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies suggest buying on dips [4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 3.1 Price Data - On March 3, 2026, London gold spot was at $5306.69/oz, London silver spot was at $85.08/oz, COMEX gold was at $5319.80/oz, and COMEX silver was at $85.12/oz. Compared with March 2, they decreased by 1.5%, 10.4%, 1.5%, and 10.7% respectively. AU2604 was at 1182 yuan/g, and AG2604 was at 21645 yuan/kg, with decreases of 1.3% and 11.4% respectively [3] - The price difference and ratio data also showed significant changes. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference changed from - 3.42 yuan/g on March 2 to - 2.2 yuan/g on March 3, a decrease of 35.7% [3] 3.2 Position Data - As of March 2, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1101.33 tons (unchanged from February 27), and the silver ETF - SLV was 15902.23557 tons, a decrease of 0.56%. COMEX gold and silver non - commercial long and short positions also had different degrees of decline [3] 3.3 Inventory Data - On March 3, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 105060 kg (unchanged from March 2), and SHFE silver inventory was 307484 kg, a decrease of 0.63%. COMEX gold and silver inventories also decreased compared with previous periods [3] 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market Data - On March 3, 2026, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate was 6.91, a decrease of 0.21% compared with March 2. The US dollar index was 98.55, an increase of 0.93% compared with February 27. The 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields also increased, and the VIX index and NYMEX crude oil price also had significant increases [3] 3.5 Market Review - On March 3, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.9% to 1182 yuan/g, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures fell 7.23% to 21405 yuan/kg. In the European and American sessions, precious metal prices further declined. London spot silver once fell more than 10%, and London spot gold once fell more than 4% and broke through the $5100/oz mark. Shanghai gold and silver night sessions also dropped significantly [3] 3.6 Impact Analysis - As the impact of geopolitical conflicts weakens marginally and risk - aversion fades, the continuation of geopolitical conflicts and the fermentation of the Strait of Hormuz issue lead to a continuous sharp rise in energy prices, reigniting market inflation concerns and economic recession concerns, causing a global stock market slump and a liquidity risk, which also affects precious metals. Rising energy prices increase US inflation risks, weakening the Fed's interest rate - cut trading expectations this year. The Fed Chairman nominee's statement on slow - paced balance - sheet reduction boosts the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, suppressing precious metal prices. The reduction of the COMEX silver March short - squeeze risk and the greater impact of economic recession on industrial attributes lead to a larger decline in silver prices [4] 3.7 Future Market Analysis - The short - term market trading focus shifts from geopolitical risks to inflation and economic recession concerns. Due to high geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, the downside space for precious metal prices is limited, and they will maintain high volatility. In the long run, the bull - market logic for precious metals remains strong. With possible Fed interest rate cuts, global geopolitical uncertainty, and the US debt promoting de - dollarization, the allocation demand for precious metals from global entities will continue, and long - term strategies suggest buying on dips [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the rating criteria for industries are as follows: within six months after the report's release, a "bullish" rating means the industry outperforms the relevant market benchmark index; a "neutral" rating means it performs in line with the index; and a "bearish" rating means it underperforms the index. The A - share market uses the CSI 300 index as the benchmark, the Hong Kong market uses the Hang Seng Index, and the US market uses the S&P 500 index [12]. Core Viewpoints - The report is bullish on 10 - year Treasury bonds, 2 - year Treasury bonds, the Wind All - A Index, the CSI Dividend Total Return Index, the Wind Micro - cap Index, the China Securities 2000 Index, COMEX gold, and IPE Brent crude oil; it suggests an adjustment for the Hang Seng Tech Index and the STAR 50 Index; and it indicates a sideways trend for 30 - year Treasury bonds and 3Y AAA medium - short - term notes [1][2][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Quant Daily Report: Bonds Show Adjustment Signals - **Bullish Instruments**: 10 - year Treasury bonds (original signal 45.96%, MA5 27.25%, signal lasting over 10 days), 2 - year Treasury bonds (original signal 2.16%, MA5 9.68%, signal lasting over 10 days), Wind All - A Index (original signal 44.75%, MA5 18.88%, signal lasting over 10 days), CSI Dividend Total Return Index (original signal 36.05%, MA5 20.84%, signal lasting 7 days), Wind Micro - cap Index (original signal 82.54%, MA5 22.43%, signal lasting over 10 days), China Securities 2000 Index (original signal 87.35%, MA5 33.40%, signal lasting over 10 days), COMEX gold (original signal 2.86%, MA5 11.22%, signal lasting over 10 days, not yet closed, one - day delay), IPE Brent crude oil (original signal 8.26%, MA5 19.21%, signal lasting over 10 days, not yet closed, one - day delay) [2][5]. - **Instruments for Adjustment**: Hang Seng Tech Index (original signal 91.63%, MA5 93.74%, signal lasting over 10 days), STAR 50 Index (original signal 98.07%, MA5 95.39%, signal lasting 5 days) [2][5]. - **Instruments in Sideways Trend**: 30 - year Treasury bonds (original signal 82.73%, MA5 44.57%, signal lasting 5 days), 3Y AAA medium - short - term notes (original signal 77.61%, MA5 48.59%, model view changed from "bullish" to "sideways", signal lasting 1 day) [2][5]. 2. Chart: Model Timing Results in the Past 10 Trading Days - **30 - year Treasury Bonds and 3Y AAA Medium - short - term Notes**: The model view for 30 - year Treasury bonds has been "sideways" for 5 days as of March 3, 2026, with an original signal of 82.73% and MA5 of 44.57%. The model view for 3Y AAA medium - short - term notes changed from "bullish" to "sideways" on March 3, 2026, with an original signal of 77.61% and MA5 of 48.59% [7]. - **10 - year Treasury Bonds and 2 - year Treasury Bonds**: The model view for both 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds has been "bullish" for over 10 days as of March 3, 2026. For 10 - year Treasury bonds, the original signal is 45.96% and MA5 is 27.25%; for 2 - year Treasury bonds, the original signal is 2.16% and MA5 is 9.68% [7]. - **Wind All - A Index and CSI Dividend Total Return Index**: The model view for both indices has been "bullish". The Wind All - A Index has an original signal of 44.75% and MA5 of 18.88%, with the signal lasting over 10 days; the CSI Dividend Total Return Index has an original signal of 36.05% and MA5 of 20.84%, with the signal lasting 7 days [7]. - **Hang Seng Tech Index and STAR 50 Index**: The model view for both indices is "adjustment". The Hang Seng Tech Index has an original signal of 91.63% and MA5 of 93.74%, with the signal lasting over 10 days; the STAR 50 Index has an original signal of 98.07% and MA5 of 95.39%, with the signal lasting 5 days [7]. - **Wind Micro - cap Index and China Securities 2000 Index**: The model view for both indices is "bullish". The Wind Micro - cap Index has an original signal of 82.54% and MA5 of 22.43%, with the signal lasting over 10 days; the China Securities 2000 Index has an original signal of 87.35% and MA5 of 33.40%, with the signal lasting over 10 days [7]. - **COMEX Gold and IPE Brent Crude Oil**: The model view for both is "bullish", with signals lasting over 10 days (not yet closed, one - day delay). COMEX gold has an original signal of 2.86% and MA5 of 11.22%; IPE Brent crude oil has an original signal of 8.26% and MA5 of 19.21% [7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The A-share market showed a "front suppression and back rise" trend post-Spring Festival, with significant capital inflow into the technology growth sector, particularly in TMT, where transaction volume exceeded 50% [2] - The bond market experienced a downward trend in yields, influenced by the central bank's liquidity measures and geopolitical tensions, with the 10-year government bond yield around 1.78% [4] - Commodity prices were affected by geopolitical events, with Brent crude oil stabilizing above $72 per barrel and gold prices rising significantly, reflecting a strong demand for safe-haven assets [6] - Macro policies indicated a focus on stimulating the silver economy and easing housing purchase restrictions in Shanghai, aiming to boost demand [8] - International markets faced increased volatility, with U.S. stock indices declining due to geopolitical tensions and fears surrounding AI's impact on traditional business models [10] Market Overview - The A-share market saw a notable performance with the Shanghai Composite Index at 4163, up 1.98% for the week and 22.87% year-on-year [13] - The bond market showed mixed results, with the overall bond index slightly down by 0.07% [13] - Commodity indices reflected varied performances, with the South China Commodity Index up 3.56% for the week [13] Sector Performance - The technology sector demonstrated strong performance, with significant capital inflow and high sensitivity to marginal positive news, while the media sector showed signs of profit-taking with a weekly decline of 5.10% [2] - The small metals sector experienced a remarkable weekly increase of 17.72%, indicating a revaluation of strategic resources under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] Upcoming Focus - The upcoming Two Sessions will be critical for policy expectations, particularly regarding GDP growth targets and fiscal deficit rates, which could influence market sentiment [11] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, will be closely monitored for their potential impact on commodity prices and market stability [11] - The release of February's official PMI data will be significant for assessing the economic recovery's foundation, with potential implications for bond market support and cyclical sectors [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the performance of various asset classes in the week from February 24th to February 27th, 2026. The equity market showed overall recovery, the convertible bond market declined, the bond market mostly weakened, and commodity futures mostly strengthened. Different market segments were affected by various factors such as policy changes, external trade environment, and geopolitical risks [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Performance of Major Asset Classes - The equity market showed overall recovery. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.98% to 4162.88 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.8% to 14495.09 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.05% to 3310.3 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges totaled 9.69 trillion yuan. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.82% to 26630.54 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.41% to 5137.84 points [9]. - The convertible bond market declined. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.24% in the past week, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index fell 0.34%. In the past month, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.9%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.26% [9]. - The bond market mostly weakened. The yields of 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, and 30-year China Bond Treasury bonds increased by 0.71bp, 0.84bp, 1.33bp, 2.36bp, and 4.36bp respectively, while the 10-year yield decreased by 0.22bp [9]. - Commodity futures mostly strengthened, with silver performing strongly. COMEX gold rose 3.24%, COMEX silver rose 11.61%, LME copper rose 2.28%, LME aluminum rose 1.16%, WTI crude oil rose 0.81%, SHFE rebar rose 0.98%, CBOT soybeans rose 1.41%, and CBOT corn rose 1.88% [10]. 3.2 Performance of the Equity Market - Stocks - The equity market rose this week, with small and medium-cap stocks outperforming. Most industries rose, with cyclical sectors such as steel and non-ferrous metals leading the gains. The media, consumer services, and non-bank financial sectors led the declines. The media sector fell 5.21%, consumer services fell 4.14%, and non-bank financials fell 3.21%. The steel sector rose 9.52%, and the comprehensive financial sector rose 2.17% [14]. - Market rotation was still active this week. The market style switched again. Benefiting from post-holiday resumption of work and production, cyclical and resource sectors led the gains, while the consumer sector was relatively weak. In addition, technology growth sectors such as semiconductors and chips also performed well [14]. - The reasons for the market performance are that the trading volume increased in the first week after the holiday, and the trading activity improved. Since the beginning of this year, the prices of many commodities have continued to rise. On the one hand, driven by the expansion of AI-related demand, the prosperity of sub - sectors such as chips and electronic cloth has increased, and prices have strengthened. On the other hand, the prices of resources such as gold and silver have also risen to varying degrees. Under the combined effect of rising product prices and improved profit expectations, relevant fields have strengthened synchronously. In the steel sector, many steel enterprises announced a "good start" in production in the first month of this year, and the production and sales indicators of some steel enterprises performed well, enhancing the investment confidence in the sector [14]. 3.3 Performance of the Equity Market - Convertible Bonds - The equity market rose this week, while the convertible bond market fell. As of February 27, 2026, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.24%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index fell 0.34%. In the past month, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.9%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.26%. The trading volumes of convertible bonds and underlying stocks this week were 2945.06 billion yuan and 5968.85 billion yuan respectively, and the trading activity of both underlying stocks and convertible bonds declined compared with before the holiday [16]. - The convertible bond market was weak this week, lagging behind the overall stock market performance. The resource and pro - cyclical sectors of A - shares showed obvious upward trends, while some high - valuation technology and growth stocks were under pressure. At the same time, the trading volume of convertible bonds decreased, which may have had a certain impact on the convertible bond market [16]. 3.4 Performance of the Fixed - Income Market - The bond market yields generally increased this week, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreasing. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 30 - year China Bond Treasury bonds increased by 0.71bp, 0.84bp, 1.33bp, 2.36bp, and 4.36bp respectively, while the 10 - year yield decreased by 0.22bp [18]. - During the Spring Festival, the US tariff policy fluctuated again, increasing the uncertainty of the external trade environment and affecting the market risk appetite, which had a certain impact on the short - term bond market. On February 25th, Shanghai issued the "Seven Measures for Shanghai" real estate optimization policy, which adjusted the purchase restrictions, housing provident fund use, and property tax, etc. The policy was aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and expectations. Affected by the policy's boost to the real estate chain sentiment, the risk appetite for equities was marginally repaired, and the bond market was under pressure [18]. - In terms of the capital side, on February 25th, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of MLF operations. From the perspective of the operation intensity and reverse repurchase scale, the monetary policy continued to be relatively loose, and the attitude of maintaining liquidity was stable. Especially before the Two Sessions, the policy orientation of stabilizing the capital side is expected to continue, and the capital price is likely to remain in a reasonable range and be generally stable. In the future, although the bond market sentiment has improved compared with before, there are not enough incremental factors to drive the yield to break through the oscillation range effectively. Before there is a new dominant variable, the market's long and short forces are still relatively balanced, and the bond market is expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [19]. 3.5 Performance of the Commodity Market - The Nanhua Commodity Index strengthened overall this week, with precious metals performing strongly. The index rose 3.56% in total. Precious metals led the gains, rising 8.55% compared with the week before the Spring Festival. Metals rose 3.06%, industrial products rose 2.47%, energy and chemicals rose 2.14%, and agricultural products rose 1.19% [27]. - The gold price continued to rise this week and remained at a high level. The uncertainty of the US - Iran situation and the variable policy orientation of the Trump administration have increased the external geopolitical risk premium. At the same time, the short - term rebound of international oil prices and the creation of a new stage high have strengthened the market's re - pricing expectations for inflation and the energy supply - demand pattern, driving the precious metal and energy sectors to strengthen synchronously. In the future, the evolution of the geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and there are also significant differences in the Fed's policy path. It is expected that gold will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term [28][30].

Asset Overview - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven up prices of precious metals and crude oil during the period from February 13 to February 27, with COMEX silver leading at a 19.8% increase, significantly outperforming gold at 5.0%[7] - Brent crude oil rose by 7.0% and WTI crude oil by 6.6% due to supply concerns stemming from the geopolitical situation[7] Equity Markets - The South Korean stock market has shown strong performance, with the KOSPI index increasing by 13.4%, marking a year-to-date gain of 48.2%[16] - Emerging markets have outperformed developed markets, with the MSCI global index rising by 1.3% during the same period[16] - A-shares performed well, with the Wind All A index up by 2.7%, and small-cap stocks like the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 both rising by 4.3%[16] Bond Markets - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bear flattening" trend, with the yield curve shifting upward and the 10Y-2Y spread narrowing to 0.42%[24] - In the U.S., the bond market showed a "bull flattening" trend, with the yield curve moving downward and the 10Y-2Y spread also narrowing[24] Commodity and Currency Trends - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.6%, while the Dow Jones fell by 1.1% during the same period[16] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.8%, with the Chinese yuan appreciating by 0.8% against the dollar, while the Japanese yen depreciated by 2.2%[7] - The South China commodity index increased by 3.6%, with significant gains in precious metals and crude oil[7] Risk Indicators - The correlation between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks has slightly decreased from 0.73 to 0.72, while the correlation between U.S. stocks and Hong Kong stocks has increased from 0.33 to 0.37[7] - The report highlights potential risks including data timeliness, significant macroeconomic changes, and unexpected asset price movements[7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall trends of both Shanghai gold and silver futures are in an upward channel, but they may be approaching the end of the trend. For gold, short - term market may continue to oscillate in the current range to digest the gains, and in the long - term, the weakening US dollar index and potential geopolitical policy risks provide upward space for gold prices. For silver, in the short - term, it may oscillate strongly in the range of 22,500 - 23,500 yuan/kg, and in the long - term, the price center is expected to rise due to the expanding supply - demand gap and the weakening US dollar [7][33] 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel and may be near the end of the trend. Last week, the gold main contract rose 3.52% driven by the US tariff policy adjustment and the weakening US dollar. Then, it sorted in the range of 1,146 - 1,151 yuan/g. The market volatility narrowed, trading was active, and long - position funds continued to increase positions. In the short - term, the market may continue to oscillate, and in the long - term, the weak US dollar and geopolitical risks provide upward space. It is necessary to pay attention to the US dollar trend, US tariff policy, and main position changes [7] - The mid - line strategy suggestion is to wait and see [8] 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The Shanghai gold contract 2604 was in short - term high - level oscillation, with the upper pressure at 1,200 - 1,220 yuan/g and the lower support at 1,080 - 1,100 yuan/g. It was recommended to buy on dips [10] - This week's strategy suggestion: The Shanghai gold contract 2604 is expected to run strongly at a high level, with the upper pressure at 1,200 - 1,220 yuan/g and the lower support at 1,080 - 1,100 yuan/g. It is recommended to buy on dips [11] 3.1.3 Related Data Situation - Multiple data charts are provided, including the price trends of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [19][21][23] Silver Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in an upward channel and may be near the end of the trend. Last week, the main contract rose 12.84% driven by the US tariff policy adjustment and the weakening US dollar. Then, it stabilized in the range of 22,600 - 23,000 yuan/kg. The trading volume increased significantly, and the short - side did not dominate. The continuous supply shortage of global silver and the significant reduction of COMEX inventory provide fundamental support. In the short - term, it may oscillate strongly in the range of 22,500 - 23,500 yuan/kg, and in the long - term, the price center is expected to rise. It is necessary to pay attention to the COMEX silver price, inventory changes, and Fed policy signals [33] - The mid - line strategy suggestion is to wait and see [34] 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The silver contract 2604 was in high - level oscillation, with the upper pressure at 21,000 - 23,000 yuan/kg and the lower support at 17,000 - 19,000 yuan/kg. It was recommended to buy on dips [38] - This week's strategy suggestion: The silver contract 2604 is expected to run strongly at a high level, with the upper pressure at 24,000 - 27,000 yuan/kg and the lower support at 18,000 - 21,000 yuan/kg. It is recommended to buy on dips [39] 3.2.3 Related Data Situation - Multiple data charts are provided, including the price trends of Shanghai silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [47][49][51]

Domestic Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a monthly closing high, achieving a three-week upward trend, with a weekly increase of 1.98%[26] - The resource sectors, including coal, steel, and chemicals, saw significant growth, with the steel sector leading at a weekly increase of 12.27%[26] - The bond market showed a "see-saw" effect, with the 10-year government bond yield rising after an initial decline[8] - The RMB appreciated against the USD by 0.80%, closing at 6.8559, supported by favorable macroeconomic factors[29] Global Market Insights - Brent crude oil prices surged above $73 per barrel due to escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran[10] - The US stock market experienced a downturn, with the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 indices falling by 1.31%, 0.95%, and 0.44% respectively[27] - The AI sector shifted focus from software and hardware to infrastructure, with the TYG ETF rising by 2.5%[10] Economic Data and Policy Review - Industrial park resumption rates exceeded 60% post-holiday, indicating strong economic recovery[11] - The steel mill operating rate continued to improve, reflecting a robust industrial recovery trend[11] - The Chinese government is implementing supportive policies for the aging population and real estate market, including adjustments to housing regulations in Shanghai[19] Commodity Market Performance - Precious metals performed well, with COMEX silver rising by 13.30% and gold increasing by 3.29%[28] - Domestic black commodities faced pressure, with coking coal and coke prices dropping by 3.35% and 2.60% respectively[28] Risk Factors - Potential escalation of geopolitical conflicts could lead to increased volatility in commodity prices[46] - Domestic policy measures may not meet expectations, potentially slowing economic growth[46]