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配置角度看,国债有望受全球资本青睐
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-26 01:06
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the asset allocation strategy from a macroeconomic perspective, highlighting the trend of currency depreciation and its impact on capital flows and asset prices since 2022, with a recent shift towards currency appreciation and potential foreign capital inflow into Chinese bonds [1][2][3] Group 1: Currency Trends and Capital Flows - Since early 2022, there has been a trend of currency depreciation leading to capital outflows from developing countries to developed ones, primarily due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes [1][2] - In July 2023, a shift occurred with the onset of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle and stabilization of the domestic economy, resulting in a trend of currency appreciation in China [2][3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Bonds - As the Chinese currency transitions from depreciation to appreciation, foreign capital is expected to flow into Chinese bonds, which are becoming increasingly attractive due to their relative stability and the country's fiscal discipline [2][3] - The global debt cycle and rising debt costs in other countries make Chinese government bonds a preferred asset for global capital seeking stability and potential appreciation [3][4] Group 3: Equity Market Outlook - The equity market is anticipated to experience a slow bull market, contrasting with previous rapid bull markets, leading to a more cautious approach to asset allocation [4] - In a slow bull market, investors are likely to rebalance their portfolios between equities and bonds, especially during periods of rapid equity price increases or corrections [4] Group 4: Specific Investment Products - The Ten-Year Government Bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as a valuable investment option, being the only product tracking the Shanghai Stock Exchange's ten-year government bond index, offering transparency and favorable trading conditions [5]
三季度债市为何调整?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-26 01:06
首先我们看一下三季度债券市场调整的主因,其实就是我们前面提到的随着权益市场上涨带来的市场风 险偏好的上行,其中会有部分资金去做大类资产配置的切换,进而从债券市场转向权益市场。在这个过 程中我们其实发现,不同于过往的几轮权益市场的牛市,在这一轮权益市场"慢牛"的行情中,居民的存 款搬家从固收类转向权益类的迹象不是特别明显。我们理解对于大部分居民而言,他其实寻找的更多的 还是稳定的、并且收益相对比较可观的资产,就导致在权益走慢牛的趋势下,其实很多资金还是更愿意 去配置在三季度调整过后相对有配置价值的债券类资产。 第二点就是在7月份中央财经委提到的反内卷政策下,三季度多种商品出现了触底反弹,包括定价国内 需求的一些黑色商品,也包括这两年相对产能比较过剩的一些光伏产业的上游资产。我们发现其实在三 季度反内卷政策推行的过程中,更多的是政策层对于供给层面的一些约束。我们看到光伏产业部分头部 的企业去注资成立公司,然后去做部分产能的收储,并且去淘汰一些落后的、过剩的产能。而在化工领 域、黑色领域部分限产也引发了上游原材料价格的上涨。 我们想强调的是,在经济转型的过程中,反内卷政策更多还是依托于供给侧去做一些产能方面的严控, ...
债市往后怎么看?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-18 01:47
我们来看一下财政的展望部分,我们还是判断明年会再次增发政府债券。为什么还会判断增发政府债 券?是因为我们基于前面对于经济整体判断,我们认为接下来9月份到四季度还是会面临一定的压力。 今年又应该说是稳增长比较重要的一年,所以说增发政府债券又是过去三年每年的下半年都发生的事 情,所以我们判断今年有可能再次提前发行像明年的特殊再融资债,或者是增加赤字,融一笔钱来解决 经济发展中遇到的困难。 货币政策这边我们预测还是会有总量的宽松,但是会遇到掣肘,我们央行的掣肘就是我们之前提过很多 次的金融稳定。金融稳定在今年以来在市场上很受到关注,其中核心关注的指标就是商业银行的加权净 息差。截止到二季度末,商业银行净息差已经降到了1.42%,持续低于满分的1.8%。应该说现在能达到 1.8%的银行已经很有限了。1.42%对应到银行的利润就是还能有一定的利润,但是利差如果进一步下行 到1.2%到1.3%,基本上银行所有的利润都要来补充资本,就没有办法产生真正意义上的利润了,就会 导致金融稳定出现问题。因为并不是所有的银行都是一样的净息差,一些银行如果显著低于这样的净息 差水平,它实际上就进入了利润下降的状态,对于央行非常关注的金融 ...
股债跷跷板?当前债市怎么看?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-19 01:15
风险提示: 投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行 长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的 风险,不能保证投资人获得收益,也不是替代储蓄的等效理财方式。 无论是股票ETF/LOF基金/联接基金,都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种,其预期 收益及预期风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票,会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风 险,提请投资者注意。 板块/基金短期涨跌幅列示仅作为文章分析观点之辅助材料,仅供参考,不构成对基金业绩的保证。 文中提及个股短期业绩仅供参考,不构成股票推荐,也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。 8月18日债券市场大幅走弱。截至17点00,10年国债收益率报1.7850%,上行4bps,30年国债收益率时隔 4个多月重回2%以上,报2.0500%。 近期,债市迎来较多逆风因素。权益市场持续走强,风险偏好显著提升,基本面逻辑弱化导致债市深度 回调。上周五央行发布二季度货币政策报告,再次提及防范资金空转,并删去买卖国 ...
下半年债市有哪些政策机会值得关注?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-15 01:36
Fiscal Policy - The government's net financing from bonds has reached 9.5 trillion, surpassing any year except 2023 and 2024, with an additional 4-5 trillion expected to be issued this year [1] - The issuance of government bonds is expected to accelerate, while special bonds will maintain a steady issuance pace similar to previous years [1] - There is a likelihood of additional government bond issuance in the second half of the year to support economic resilience, potentially through special treasury bonds or increased deficits [1] Monetary Policy - A prediction of stock liquidity easing in the second half of the year, but the overall impact may not be as significant as previously anticipated due to financial stability constraints [1] - The central bank is expected to restart bond purchases in the third quarter, primarily due to a lack of long-term liquidity tools [2] - The bank's net interest margin is a significant factor limiting the extent of interest rate reductions, with a focus on the sustainability of banks' profitability [2] Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is currently in a state of oscillation, with strategies suggested for gradually increasing long-term bond holdings at high yield points and reducing them at low yield points [3] - The yield curve is at a relatively high level compared to the year, indicating a neutral to low historical position, with financial stability being a key constraint on monetary policy [2][3]
重要会议稳定预期,债市拐点将至?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-11 02:07
债市方面,核心观点是八个字:利好支撑,中期向好。主要有三点原因:第一是需求现实,第二是政策 支持,第三是情绪超调。 第一是需求现实,当下的需求和供给错配并没有完全解决,PPI已经33个月为负。"反内卷"的一系列政 策体现的是政策制定者从对量到价的关注方向的转变。但供给侧改革其实是需要需求侧配合的,因为只 有这样,价格负反馈的螺旋才有可能提前结束。 第二是政策支持,近期召开的政治局会议对于货币政策方面进行了着重强调,比如其中提出:宏观政策 要持续发力、适时加力,要落实更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,充分释放政策效应;货币 政策要保持流动性充裕,促进社会综合融资成本下行,此外还提到了用好各项结构性的货币工具。都体 现了政策对债市的托底作用。 近期股债市场出现较大波动,很多投资者都在询问对债券市场、权益市场的看法,以下仅作参考。 (1)债市:利好支撑,中期向好 第二,当下是正常回调,短期的快速拉涨导致了获利盘和恐高情绪的集中释放。对于中国经济中长期的 信心,以及对于"反内卷"政策调整有望打破量价齐跌的负反馈螺旋这几点,市场已经形成了共识。这样 的共识其实并不容易轻易改变,因此这样的回调很容易形成加仓的良机。 ...
ETF主力榜 | 港股通创新药ETF(159570)获主力资金加速买入,国债ETF获主力关注-20250610
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-11 01:29
Core Insights - In June 2025, a total of 245 ETF funds experienced net buying from major funds, while 298 ETF funds faced net selling. Notably, 86 ETF funds had net purchases exceeding 10 million yuan, with the Ten-Year Treasury ETF (511260) leading with a net inflow of 3.234 billion yuan [1][3][5]. Group 1: Major Net Buyers - The top five ETFs with the highest net buying amounts include: 1. Ten-Year Treasury ETF (511260) with 3.233 billion yuan 2. National Development ETF (159650) with 1.521 billion yuan 3. 0-4 Year Local Debt ETF (159816) with 1.093 billion yuan 4. Treasury ETF (511010) with 909.9 million yuan 5. Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (513120) with 848.5 million yuan [1][3][5]. Group 2: Major Net Sellers - A total of 104 ETFs experienced net selling exceeding 10 million yuan, with the top five being: 1. Credit Bond ETF Guangfa (159397) with 522 million yuan 2. Credit Bond ETF (511190) with 480 million yuan 3. A500 Index ETF (159351) with 419 million yuan 4. Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) with 334 million yuan 5. Shanghai 50 ETF (510050) with 306 million yuan [5][7][9]. Group 3: Continuous Net Buying - Over the recent period, 168 ETFs have seen continuous net buying, with the leading ones being: 1. Entrepreneur Large Cap ETF (16 days) with 144 million yuan 2. Ten-Year Local Debt ETF (12 days) with 4.342 billion yuan 3. CSI 2000 ETF (12 days) with 341 million yuan 4. National Development ETF (11 days) with 1.689 billion yuan 5. Biotechnology ETF (11 days) with 23.4 million yuan [11][13]. Group 4: Continuous Net Selling - A total of 101 ETFs have experienced continuous net selling, with the top five being: 1. Transaction Currency ETF (13 days) with 32.37 million yuan 2. Bank ETF Preferred (9 days) with 20.5 million yuan 3. Dividend Low Volatility ETF (8 days) with 46.67 million yuan 4. CSI A500 ETF Morgan (7 days) with 123 million yuan 5. Data ETF (7 days) with 17.04 million yuan [15][16]. Group 5: Recent Trends - In the last five days, 62 ETFs have seen net buying exceeding 100 million yuan, with the top five being: 1. Credit Bond ETF Guangfa (159396) with 5.728 billion yuan 2. Credit Bond ETF (511190) with 5.450 billion yuan 3. Ten-Year Treasury ETF (511260) with 4.624 billion yuan 4. National Development ETF (159650) with 4.336 billion yuan 5. 5-Year Local Debt ETF (159972) with 4.034 billion yuan [18][20]. - Conversely, 19 ETFs have seen net selling exceeding 100 million yuan, with the top five being: 1. Yin Hua Daily ETF (511880) with 5.750 billion yuan 2. Hua Bao Tian Yi ETF (511990) with 3.822 billion yuan 3. Credit Bond ETF Tian Hong (159398) with 2.705 billion yuan 4. A500 ETF Fund (512050) with 825 million yuan 5. Shanghai Company Bond ETF (511070) with 823 million yuan [22][24].