本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【国内白卡纸价格上涨，纸浆市场多因素交织】截至10月23日，国内白卡纸市场均价达4054元/吨，较9 月底上涨1.38%。 10月23日，上期所纸浆仓库期货仓单220002吨，环比减少267吨；纸浆厂库期货仓单 6000吨，环比持平。 海关数据显示，2025年9月我国纸浆进口295万吨，环比增11%，同比增10%。 国 投安信期货认为，目前国内港口库存同比偏高，纸浆供给宽松。虽海外阔叶浆报价上行，针阔价差缩窄 支撑针叶浆，但需求一般，下游缺乏旺季支撑，订单跟进不足，操作上建议观望。 南华期货指出，供 给商Eldorado Brasil Celulose于10月20 - 31日检修，供应压力稍减。下游用纸开工率涨跌互现，现货市场 放量平缓，等待旺季支撑。纸浆期价震荡上行，胶版纸下跌中继，受纸企提价和招标需求支撑，但市场 预期悲观，短期涨势或延续，期价上方有制约。 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：关注四中全会与 APEC 峰会 【市场资讯】1）美国政府停摆进入第 22 天，创史上第二长纪录，失业率或临时性上升！ 2）特朗普称取消与普京在布达佩斯的会面。报道称美国解除乌克兰用远程导弹关键限制。 特朗普上任后首次，美国对俄两大石油公司实施制裁。油价盘中大涨 4%。3）印媒：印度 与美国接近达成贸易协议，关税从 50%降至 15%。 【核心逻辑】国内层面，中美贸易局势缓和的预期有所升温，后续需将中美贸易谈判进程 作为核心关注方向，但短期内对谈判成果不宜抱有过高期待。数据方面，三季度 GDP 同比 增速如期边际放缓，而 GDP 平减指数则呈现边际回升态势；从 9 月经济数据来看，生产端 韧性仍存，需求端则出现一定回落。近期财政发力托底经济的意图十分明确，后续经济复 苏的关键将取决于内需层面的修复节奏与力度。海外方面，美国政府停摆致数据真空，市 场对经济担忧暂缓但风险仍存，预计美联储 10 月降息 25 个基点，然因市场提前定价，实 际影响或有限。关注美国后续发布的就业、通胀数据。 人民币汇率：人弃我取，人取我予 【行情回顾】前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 7.1245，较 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The packaging paper price increase trend continues, with leading paper companies like Nine Dragons and Shanying announcing price hikes, indicating a strong demand and cost transmission effect in the paper industry [3][4] - The pulp market inventory is decreasing, with the average price of domestic bleached softwood kraft pulp dropping by 96.25 yuan/ton, easing cost pressures for paper companies [3][10] - Policies and corporate initiatives are accelerating the industry's transformation towards "green, intelligent, and integrated" production, with several companies achieving significant milestones in water efficiency and resource utilization [3][5][22] - The valuation and fundamentals of the paper sector are resonating positively, with many companies listed among the top 500 manufacturing enterprises in China, indicating strong cash flow and performance certainty [3][5] Summary by Sections Industry News - Hebei province has included the paper industry in its carbon offset program, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while promoting sustainable practices [4] - Multiple paperboard manufacturers are passing on cost pressures to downstream packaging companies, indicating a sustained price increase trend for raw paper [4] High-Frequency Data - The average inventory of pulp futures has decreased to 229,000 tons, down by 3,123.75 tons week-on-week, while the average closing price has slightly increased to 4,818 yuan/ton [6] Company Events and Announcements - Asia Pacific Forestry and Paper has been recognized as a leading water-efficient enterprise in Shandong, achieving a 95.98% industrial water recycling rate [22] - Guangxi Jianhui Paper's first batch of wood chips has successfully entered the factory, marking a significant step in its integrated supply chain [22] - The 220 billion yuan integrated forestry and paper project by Liansheng has commenced full production, significantly altering the regional paper industry landscape [22] Investment Strategy - The current phase of the paper sector is characterized by deepening price increases and policy support, with a focus on the packaging paper price increase and the upcoming demand from the Double Eleven shopping festival [23]

南华纸浆产业周报 2025年10月19日 ——弱势维持 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 国内纸浆市场情绪延续偏弱态势，现货成交清淡，价格承压运行。当前市场呈现出"弱现实"与"强预期"相互博 弈的格局，其运行逻辑受到多重因素的制约。 从基本面来看，供应压力持续是主要特征。港口库存持续处于200万吨以上的高位，仓单消化缓慢，直接制约 了近月价格的表现。同时，外盘市场出现分化态势：针叶浆价格面临下行压力，而阔叶浆供应商则表现出挺 价意愿，形成"针弱阔稳"的局面。 在终端需求方面，则表现出"旺季不旺"的特点。尽管进入传统季节性旺季，但下游成品纸厂依然面临高企的库 存和低迷的生产利润，这使得企业缺乏主动大幅补库的动力，采购行为多以满足刚性生产需求为主。 综合来看，高库存和疲弱的现实需求是抑制浆价上行的最主要因素。预计短期內纸浆市场难有趋势性行情， 将以震荡偏弱运行为主。未来市场的关键转折点在于库存能否有效去化，以及后续节假日带来的季节性需求 能否切实拉动下游补库，从而带动市场情绪的改善。 *近端交易逻辑 仓单持续 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the paper industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The paper industry is experiencing a peak season with stable prices, supported by a healthy supply-demand balance, which is expected to continue [4] - The cost pressures on paper companies are easing due to a reduction in paper pulp futures inventory and stable pricing, creating favorable conditions for profit recovery [4] - Multiple favorable policies are driving the industry's transformation towards high-end and green development, with significant initiatives such as the establishment of the Printing Paper Working Committee and strategic collaborations to enhance digitalization and branding [4][6][7] - The current valuation of the paper sector is at a historical low, with three supporting factors: stable peak season prices, alleviated costs, and policy-driven transformation, indicating clear improvement in the fundamentals [4] - The report highlights the strong cash flow and performance certainty of leading companies in the sector, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [4] Summary by Sections Industry News - Four paper companies, including Chenming and Nine Dragons, were listed in the "2025 China Top 500 Enterprises" [5] - A strategic partnership was formed between JD.com and the Baoding government to promote the digital and brand transformation of the paper industry [6] - The establishment of the Printing Paper Working Committee aims to enhance quality and fair competition in the industry [7] High-Frequency Data - As of September 19, 2025, the average inventory of paper pulp futures decreased to 244,800 tons, while the average closing price was 4,995.6 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight price adjustment [8] - Domestic paper prices remained stable, with whiteboard paper at 4,000 CNY/ton and corrugated paper at 3,040 CNY/ton, among others [20] Company Events and Announcements - Sichuan Xianhe New Materials announced a project to add 200,000 tons/year of household paper capacity [30] - Jindong Paper was recognized for its smart manufacturing initiatives, marking a milestone in its digital transformation [31] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors with stable peak prices and new capacity releases, particularly in packaging and specialty paper, while also considering companies with strong policy support and technological advancements for long-term growth [33]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term bullish factors are exhausted, sentiment falls, and pricing will return to fundamental - led during the policy vacuum period. The market has an expectation gap with the statement of the Politburo meeting. Fundamentally, pulp supply and inventory are at high levels, production profit and operating rate of four major papers are low, with new production capacity put into operation, and there is no long - term significant increase in demand expected. Although there is a seasonal boost in demand in August, the downstream purchasing intention is not positive. The price is expected to fluctuate after a decline, and it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and to wait and see [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Paper Pulp Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 19.03%, and the current volatility's 3 - year historical percentile is 58.0% [3] Paper Pulp Hedging Strategy - For inventory management, when the coniferous pulp inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, enterprises with long spot exposure can short pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - For procurement management, when the inventory of papermaking enterprises is low and they want to purchase according to orders, enterprises with short spot exposure can buy pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [3] Core Contradiction - The main contract closed at 5232 (-134), a decline of - 2.5%. Spot prices in Shandong, such as for Silver Star, Russian Needle, and Goldfish, all decreased. The policy vacuum period is coming, and pricing will return to fundamentals. There is an expectation gap in the Politburo meeting statement. Currently, pulp supply and inventory are high, production profit and operating rate of four major papers are low, and there is new production capacity. Although there is a seasonal boost in demand in August, the downstream purchasing intention is not positive. The price is expected to fluctuate after a decline, and it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and to wait and see [4] 利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) - A significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate [5] 利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) - Overseas pulp quotes continue to decline [5] Paper Pulp Quote Related - Futures contracts such as SP2509, SP2511, and sp2601 all showed price declines on July 30 - 31, 2025. CFR quotes for coniferous and broad - leaf pulp had different changes. Domestic spot prices of various types of pulp and domestic finished paper average prices also had different degrees of price changes [6][9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The main contract closed at 5374 (-48) today, a decline of -0.89%. Technically, it's a retracement after a breakout [3] - The paper pulp's own fundamentals are not optimistic, with high supply and high inventory. The comprehensive production profit of the four major types of paper is low, the operating rate is low, and there is new production capacity coming online. There is a large short - term surplus pressure. The demand side cannot foresee a long - term significant increase [4] - Seasonally, after entering August, it gradually becomes the downstream consumption peak season, which will boost the demand for paper pulp to some extent. But currently, the downstream procurement willingness is not positive [4] - The previous rise in commodity sentiment drove up the futures and, to some extent, the spot prices. There will be a policy window period, and it will take time for specific policies to be implemented. The relatively weak fundamentals will restrain the rebound height. Technically, after retracing to the support level, one can go long with a light position [4] Group 3: Key Points from Different Sections Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for paper pulp is 4900 - 5400, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 19.03%, and the current volatility's 3 - year historical percentile is 58.0% [2] - For inventory management, when the softwood pulp inventory is at a high level and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises can short paper pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 5200 - 5300 to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] - For procurement management, when the inventory of papermaking enterprises is low and they want to purchase according to orders, they can buy paper pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 4900 - 5100 to lock in procurement costs in advance [2] Market Quotes - On the spot side, the quotes in Shandong are: Silver Star at 5920 yuan/ton (+0), Russian Needle at 5450 yuan/ton (+0), and Goldfish at 4150 yuan/ton (+0) [3] - The futures quotes show different prices and changes for contracts like SP2509, SP2511, and sp2601 on July 29 - 30, 2025 [5] - The CFR quotes for softwood pulp and hardwood pulp on July 28, 2025, are 870 dollars/ton and 820 dollars/ton respectively [5][8] - Domestic spot prices of various types of pulp and finished paper have different price levels and changes on different dates [8] Industry Initiative - The Guangdong Paper Association issued an initiative to promote high - quality development in the paper industry by resisting malicious competition, optimizing capacity structure, and shifting to value - based competition, which has regional demonstration significance [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp futures have been rising recently due to the boost of the macro - atmosphere, despite the weak fundamentals and lack of confidence in chasing the rise. The current demand peak season has not arrived, and the domestic anti - involution has not affected the paper - making industry, so the upward movement of the futures price is weak. The market is at a critical point of breakthrough. If it can break through effectively, it is advisable to cautiously follow up on the long side [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.03% and a historical percentile of 58.0% over 3 years [2]. 3.2 Pulp Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high coniferous pulp inventory worried about price drops, they can short pulp futures (sp2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton [2]. - **Procurement Management**: Paper - making enterprises with low inventory can buy pulp futures (sp2509) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The main contract closed at 5368 (+40) today, with a 0.75% increase. In the spot market, the price of Shandong Yinxing is 5920 yuan/ton, Shandong Russian Needle is 5300 yuan/ton, and Shandong Goldfish is 4100 yuan/ton, all unchanged. The trading activity in the pulp spot market is low, and prices remain stable. The futures price is mainly driven up by macro factors [3]. 3.4利多解读 (Likely a typo, should be "Positive Factors Analysis") - The factors that are favorable for the pulp market are the significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate and the implementation of macro - policies [4]. 3.5利空解读 (Likely a typo, should be "Negative Factors Analysis") - The continuous decline of overseas pulp quotes is a negative factor for the market [5]. 3.6 Pulp Price Quotes - **Futures Contracts**: On July 22, 2025, SP2509 was at 5368 yuan/ton, SP2511 was at 5326 yuan/ton, and sp2601 was at 5502 yuan/ton, with different price changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [5]. - **CFR Quotes**: On July 21, 2025, the CFR quote for coniferous pulp was 870 US dollars/ton, and for broad - leaf pulp was 800 US dollars/ton, both unchanged [5]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: On July 22, 2025, domestic spot prices of various types of pulp and finished paper showed different price trends, with some remaining stable and some having slight changes [7].

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pulp industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Core View - The SP2509 contract rebounded with a decrease in positions today, closing at 5076, up 0.56%. From a supply - demand perspective, the weakness persists. The falling external quotes and high - fluctuating imports suppress price increases. High port inventories and weak demand in the off - season make de - stocking difficult and create large inventory pressure. Although there will be a peak demand season after August with some stocking needs, it hasn't started yet. However, the current absolute price is at a low level, and continuous price drops may touch the upper edge of overseas pulp mills' cost lines, which will resist further price declines. With the policy influence of the meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1st, the commodity has short - term upward rebound momentum due to sentiment. The strategy suggests short - term waiting and seeing [4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 20.91%, and its historical percentile in the past 3 years is 68.0% [3] Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For those with high coniferous pulp inventories worried about price drops, they can short pulp futures (sp2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 5200 - 5300 [3] - **Procurement Management**: For papermaking enterprises with low inventories aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy pulp futures (sp2509) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4900 - 5100 [3] Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: A significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate and macro - policy support [5] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Continuous decline in overseas pulp quotes [5] Price Quotes - **Futures Contracts**: On July 2, 2025, SP2507 was at 5048 yuan/ton (down 0.24% week - on - week), SP2509 was at 5072 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week), and SP2511 was at 5068 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week) [5] - **CFR Quotes**: On July 1, 2025, coniferous pulp was at 870 dollars/ton (unchanged week - on - week), and broad - leaf pulp was at 800 dollars/ton (unchanged week - on - week) [5] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Various types of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp in different regions showed price changes on July 2, 2025, with most showing slight declines [5] - **Domestic Finished Paper Average Prices**: Copper - plate paper was at 6600 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week), white - card paper was at 4410 yuan/ton (up 1.15% week - on - week), tissue paper was at 5900 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week), and offset paper was at 5700 yuan/ton (down 1.72% week - on - week) [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The core view is that inventory remains at a high level, and demand shows a weak feedback. Last week, the pulp futures price declined, with a decrease in open interest and dominant long - position reduction. The SP2507 main contract dropped by 52 yuan/ton, a 0.96% decline, closing at 5362 yuan/ton. Domestic coniferous pulp and broad - leaf pulp spot prices also decreased [5]. - In March 2025, European chemical pulp consumption was 86.57 tons, a 3.24% year - on - year decrease; inventory was 70.73 tons, a 6.24% year - on - year increase, and inventory days were 26 days, up 1 day from the same period last year. China's pulp imports in March were 324.9 tons, a 0.9% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year increase, with a cumulative 963.9 tons and a 5.0% cumulative year - on - year increase. China's machine - made paper and cardboard production in March was 1455.3 tons, a 3.6% year - on - year increase, with a cumulative 3819.0 tons and a 3.8% cumulative year - on - year increase [6]. - The core logic is that last week, pulp futures and spot prices declined slightly. The basis of Silver Star strengthened, while that of Russian Needle weakened, and the brand price difference continued to widen. Since February, the price difference between coniferous pulp brands and between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp has been widening. Weak demand and weak expectations have led to a downward trend in pulp prices. In the second quarter, demand is still insufficient. On the supply side, the volume of pulp shipped from overseas mills to China increased in March, but due to low acceptance of high - priced foreign pulp from March to April, the long - term contract orders decreased, and it is expected that the future arrival volume will decline. There is new domestic production capacity for broad - leaf pulp, which will put pressure on its price. Coniferous pulp prices will have a bottom - finding and bottom - building process. Domestic pulp port inventory remains at a high level, and the demand side feedback is weak [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Data Review - Futures prices: SP2505 rose by 12 yuan/ton, a 0.22% increase; SP2507 dropped by 52 yuan/ton, a 0.96% decline; SP2509 fell by 128 yuan/ton, a 2.32% decline [8]. - Foreign offers: Coniferous pulp (Silver Star) and broad - leaf pulp (Star) remained unchanged [8]. - Domestic spot prices: Coniferous pulp (Shandong Silver Star) was unchanged; coniferous pulp (Shandong Russian Needle) rose by 50 yuan/ton, a 0.93% increase; broad - leaf pulp (Shandong Star) dropped by 50 yuan/ton, a 1.12% decline [8]. - Domestic finished paper average prices: White cardboard rose by 7.5 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase; tissue paper dropped by 50 yuan/ton, a 0.79% decline; offset paper rose by 50 yuan/ton, a 0.86% increase [8]. 2. Industry Data: Inventory and Supply - Price differences: The basis of Silver Star - main contract increased by 46 yuan/ton, a 4.88% increase; the spread between 05 - 09 contracts rose by 140 yuan/ton; the difference between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp (Silver Star - Goldfish) increased by 60 yuan/ton, a 3.35% increase [9]. - Finished paper production: White cardboard production dropped by 0.5 tons, a 1.6% decline; tissue paper production decreased by 0.3 tons, a 1% decline; offset paper production increased by 0.27 tons, a 1.4% increase [9]. - Finished paper profits: White cardboard profit rose by 20.7 yuan/ton, a 3.54% increase; tissue paper profit dropped by 57.3 yuan/ton, a 20.38% decline; offset paper profit decreased by 12.5 yuan/ton, a 6.83% decline [9]. - Inventory: Qingdao port inventory increased by 4.6 tons, a 3.51% increase; Changshu port inventory rose by 2.2 tons, a 4.44% increase [9].