1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global market is currently in an observational phase with no clear consensus-driven trends. The short - term market is unlikely to have a unilateral trend, and the Fed's interest - rate cut narrative may be the next potential catalyst [2]. - The RMB exchange rate has shown strength. Short - term strategies for export and import enterprises are proposed, such as export enterprises locking in forward exchange settlement and import enterprises adopting a rolling purchase strategy [3][4]. - The stock index is expected to be bullish, while the bond market should focus on the Two Sessions' news [5][6]. - The container shipping market for the European route is expected to be weak in the short term, with a shift in trading logic [7][10]. - In the new energy market, the speculative sentiment of lithium carbonate is strong, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of weak supply and demand [12][15]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, aluminum and its related products are expected to fluctuate and consolidate, zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly, nickel - stainless steel is expected to fluctuate at a high level, tin is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and lead is expected to fluctuate and adjust [18][22][23][25][27][28]. - In the oil and fat feed market, oilseeds have strong expectations but weak reality, and oils are expected to improve [29][31]. - In the energy and oil and gas market, high - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure, low - sulfur fuel oil is strong, and asphalt prices may decline [34][35]. - In the precious metal market, platinum - palladium is expected to be in a long - term bull market, and gold - silver is strategically bullish in the short term [38][40][41][43]. - In the chemical market, pulp and offset paper are expected to fluctuate at a low level, pure benzene - styrene should pay attention to geopolitical trends, LPG is affected by geopolitics, PX - PTA is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, MEG - bottle chips are expected to fluctuate widely, methanol can consider a positive spread strategy, plastics PP are expected to fluctuate and decline, and rubber is expected to fluctuate in a range [45][47][50][52][56][59][61][64]. - In the black market, rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be weak, iron ore may recover seasonally, coking coal and coke need to focus on the resumption rhythm, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese should wait for the hedging opportunity [79][80][81][84]. - In the agricultural and soft commodity market, the price of live pigs may continue to decline, cotton is recommended to go long on dips, sugar's rebound space is limited, eggs may fluctuate at a low level in the short term and rise in the medium term, apples are supported by delivery contradictions, dates are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and logs can be observed [85][88][91][92][100][102][103]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The indirect negotiation between Iran and the US ended with "significant progress". The US initial jobless claims were 212,000, the Bank of Korea maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, and the Bank of Japan may consider raising interest rates [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore and off - shore RMB against the US dollar both broke through the 6.84 mark. Short - term strategies for export and import enterprises are provided [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to be bullish, with attention on the sustainability of trading volume [5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is bearish, and attention should be paid to the news of the Two Sessions [5][6]. - **Container Shipping for European Route**: The market is weak, with a shift in trading logic from expecting price increases to facing price cuts in the off - season [7][10]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The speculative sentiment is strong, and upstream enterprises are recommended to hedge by shorting at high prices [12][14]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: They are in a situation of weak supply and demand. Short - term prices may break through the support level, and medium - term strategies are to go long at low prices [15][16]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and different trading strategies are proposed [18][21]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different products [22][23]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback of tariff news [23][24]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: They are expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to US tariff and Indonesian supply - side factors [25][26]. - **Tin**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the approval progress in Indonesia and the actual resumption progress in Myanmar [27]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and interval operations are recommended [28]. Oil and Fat Feed - **Oilseeds**: They have strong expectations but weak reality. After the market returns to fundamentals, shorting and reverse - spread opportunities can be considered [29][30]. - **Oils**: They are expected to improve, and long - position opportunities at low prices can be considered for palm oil [31][32]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure, and low - sulfur fuel oil is strong. The market shows a differentiated pattern [34]. - **Asphalt**: Prices may decline, especially when the demand after the Spring Festival is lower than expected [35]. Precious Metals - **Platinum - Palladium**: They are expected to be in a long - term bull market, but attention should be paid to various risk factors [38][40]. - **Gold - Silver**: They are strategically bullish in the short term, and long - position strategies on dips are recommended [41][43]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: They are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and interval trading strategies are recommended [45][46]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Attention should be paid to geopolitical trends, and long - position strategies on dips are recommended for styrene [47][49]. - **LPG**: It is mainly affected by geopolitics, and the short - term pricing is dominated by the Iran - US situation [50][51]. - **PX - PTA**: They are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and long - position strategies on dips and short - spread strategies for processing fees are recommended [52][55]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: They are expected to fluctuate widely, and short - selling is not recommended in the short term [56][58]. - **Methanol**: A positive spread strategy for the 5 - 9 contract can be considered, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors [59][60]. - **Plastic PP**: They are expected to fluctuate and decline, and attention should be paid to the demand after the resumption of work by downstream enterprises and the inventory removal speed [61][63]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate in a range, and different trading strategies are recommended for different types of rubber [64][71]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to buy at a low price, and the market price is expected to rise steadily [72]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash is expected to fluctuate with limited price movement, and glass prices are restricted by supply recovery and high inventory in the middle - stream [74][75]. - **Propylene**: It is affected by cost and supply - demand factors, and the market is still supported fundamentally [76][77]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to be weak, and although the market may hype up expectations near the Two Sessions, the fundamentals are still weak [79]. - **Iron Ore**: It may recover seasonally, and low - buying opportunities or positive - spread strategies can be considered at low valuations [79][80]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They need to focus on the resumption rhythm of mines and steel mills after the Spring Festival, and the price may face short - term supply - demand mismatch or downward pressure [81][83]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are affected by manganese ore news, and hedging opportunities after the emotional release can be waited for [84]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The price is expected to continue to decline, and a sell - call option strategy is proposed [85][87]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand and US trade policy [88][90]. - **Sugar**: The rebound space is limited, although there is some upward driving force [91]. - **Eggs**: They may fluctuate at a low level in the short term and rise in the medium term [92][93]. - **Apples**: The short - term demand is weak after the Spring Festival, but the delivery contradiction provides support [100][101]. - **Dates**: They are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the post - festival replenishment demand [102]. - **Logs**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and an observation strategy is recommended [103].

金融期货早评 宏观：美日联手干预汇率 【市场资讯】1）美国总统特朗普威胁将韩国商品的关税提高至 25%，理由是他所称的该国 立法机构未能将两国去年达成的贸易协议编纂成法。2）中国人民银行召开 2026 年宏观审 慎工作会议。3）日本首相高市早苗：如果执政联盟在众议院选举中无法获得多数席位，我 将立即辞职。4）欧盟将于 2027 年 1 月全面禁止进口俄液化天然气，同年 9 月底全面禁止 进口俄管道天然气。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】人民币方面，央行邹澜明确以香港为离岸核心枢纽，通过扩容离 岸资产供给、翻倍香港人民币流动性安排完善金融生态，这一布局适配人民币从贸易结算 向投资储备的国际化升级，既解决外资人民币资产配置需求，也能为 A 股引入长期资金， 对接国内科技产业的估值与发展需求。日元的困境远超汇率层面，纽约联储的询价动作与 日本官员的干预表态虽短期拉动日元反弹，但美日利差、结构性资本外流仍在，叠加首相 高市早苗将汇率与大选绑定的政治风险，反弹缺乏基本面支撑。更关键的是，其削减消费 税的言论引发市场对财政纪律松弛的担忧，直接导致日债长端利率攀升、收益率曲线熊市 走陡，彻底颠覆全球固收市场逻辑，债券从避险工具变为 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures**: China's central bank has introduced eight structural optimization policies, signaling a shift from chasing liquidity to focusing on economic fundamentals and corporate earnings. The RMB exchange rate maintains two - way flexibility, and the central bank has room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. China's exports are expected to remain resilient, and the monetary policy will stay moderately loose. For RMB exchange rates, the willingness of enterprises to settle foreign exchange has increased significantly, and the RMB is expected to appreciate moderately against the US dollar before the Spring Festival [1][3]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous regulatory actions mainly caused short - term fluctuations without changing the medium - to - long - term trends. After the release of multiple favorable policies by the central bank, the stock index is more likely to strengthen again [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank's use of structural tools to support the real economy has a certain boosting effect on the bond market, but the scope of the market may be limited. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and not chase short - term highs [6]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market logic has shifted from trading geopolitical risk premiums to trading pre - Spring Festival spot price cuts. The futures are expected to be in a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [6][8][9]. - **Commodities** - **New Energy**: For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to gradually realize profits in the short term and wait for opportunities to go long on dips. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, pay attention to polysilicon production resumption and shutdown dynamics in the short term, and consider long positions on dips for industrial silicon in the medium - to - long term [12][15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper, do not build new positions above 100,000 yuan; for aluminum, it is expected to be oscillating and strengthening; for alumina, it is expected to be oscillating and weakening; for zinc, it is expected to be oscillating strongly; for nickel and stainless steel, they are expected to be oscillating and adjusting; for tin, it is recommended to go long on dips; for lead, it is expected to be oscillating strongly [17][19][22]. - **Oils and Fats and Feeds**: For oilseeds, the external soybean market will be weakly oscillating, and the domestic soybean meal will be strong in the near term and weak in the far term. For oils, the short - term market will continue to rebound in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to reduce positions in the M3 - 5 long spread and short positions in rapeseed meal [24][25][27]. - **Energy and Oil and Gas**: For fuel oil, beware of geopolitical fluctuations and consider the 5 - 9 long spread after a correction. For asphalt, pay attention to long spread opportunities. The short - term price is expected to oscillate with limited upside and downside [29][30][33]. - **Precious Metals**: Platinum and palladium are expected to continue their bull market in the medium - to - long term. Gold and silver are in an upward - biased pattern, and it is recommended to add long positions on dips while controlling positions [35][36][38]. - **Chemicals**: For pulp and offset paper, it is recommended to wait and consider long positions on dips. For LPG, follow geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance. For PTA - PX, do not chase long positions at high valuations. For MEG - bottle chips, it is in a weak pattern, and it is recommended to wait for macro - policy changes. For methanol, do not short. For PE, it is expected to decline. For pure benzene - styrene, styrene is running strongly. For rubber, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider long positions in the RU - BR spread on dips [39][42][55]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and glass is facing high inventory pressure. Caustic soda is expected to be weakly oscillating [57][58][59]. - **Propylene**: It fluctuates with costs, and pay attention to geopolitical impacts on costs and PDH device changes [59][60]. - **Black Metals**: For steel products, the downside is limited, but the upside lacks drivers, and the price will oscillate. For iron ore, the price is expected to decline in the short term. For coking coal and coke, the supply - demand structure is still in surplus, but the inventory may improve [61][62][64]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities**: For live pigs, the market is oscillating, and it is recommended to sell call options on the 03 contract around 13,000. For cotton, there is a short - term callback risk, but the decline may be limited. For sugar, the short - term price is oscillating strongly with increasing pressure. For rubber, it oscillates and it is recommended to wait and see. For apples, it may continue to strengthen after a short - term adjustment. For red dates, the price will oscillate at a low level in the short term and be under pressure in the medium - to - long term. For logs, the price will oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to consider short positions around 800 [65][67][75]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Categories Financial Futures - **Macro**: The central bank has introduced eight measures, including a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools and a reduction of the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans to 30%. The US initial jobless claims were lower than expected, and the Fed's stance on interest rates is divided. The US is facing multiple issues such as stagflation, institutional disputes, and geopolitical conflicts. China's exports in 2025 maintained medium - to - high - speed growth, and the full - year social financing increment exceeded 35 trillion yuan [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The willingness of enterprises to settle foreign exchange has increased significantly. The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately against the US dollar before the Spring Festival, and its appreciation is affected by the US dollar index and the central bank's regulation [1][3]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous regulatory actions mainly caused short - term fluctuations. After the release of multiple favorable policies by the central bank, the stock index is more likely to strengthen again. The impact of external factors on A - shares is limited [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank's use of structural tools to support the real economy has a certain boosting effect on the bond market, but the scope of the market may be limited. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and not chase short - term highs [6]. Container Shipping to Europe - **Market Logic**: The market logic has shifted from trading geopolitical risk premiums to trading pre - Spring Festival spot price cuts. The futures are expected to be in a weakly oscillating pattern in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [6][8][9]. - **Risk Factors**: Pay attention to the rhythm and amplitude of pre - Spring Festival price cuts by shipping companies, geopolitical fluctuations, and the guidance of shipping companies' February opening prices and actual shipment volume data in late January [14]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market is in a "not - so - off - season" state. The futures volatility is at a historical high. It is recommended to gradually realize profits in the short term and wait for opportunities to go long on dips [12]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: In the short term, pay attention to polysilicon production resumption and shutdown dynamics. In the medium - to - long term, consider long positions on dips for industrial silicon [13][15]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The decline in copper prices is limited due to the small amount of available goods. Do not build new positions above 100,000 yuan. Enterprises in need of spot procurement can consider constructing option strategies [16][17]. - **Aluminum and Its Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillating and strengthening; alumina is expected to be oscillating and weakening; casting aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. Pay attention to the impact of policies such as tariffs and export tax rebates [18][19]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to be oscillating strongly. Although the fundamentals have the potential to go long, there is significant hedging pressure above [19]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They are expected to be oscillating and adjusting. The quota issuance rhythm is the core factor, and the new energy demand may be favorable [20][21]. - **Tin**: It may still have upward momentum after a short - term callback. It is recommended to go long on dips [22]. - **Lead**: It is expected to be oscillating strongly. The price is expected to be range - bound in 2026 [23]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The external soybean market will be weakly oscillating, and the domestic soybean meal will be strong in the near term and weak in the far term. Pay attention to the progress of Chinese soybean purchases and the supply situation of Brazilian soybeans [24][25]. - **Oils**: The short - term market will continue to rebound in a wide - range oscillation. Pay attention to origin information and international relations. It is recommended to reduce positions in the M3 - 5 long spread and short positions in rapeseed meal [25][26][27]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: Supply is affected by sanctions, and high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors at the bottom. Consider the 5 - 9 long spread after a correction [29][30]. - **Asphalt**: The cost is affected by geopolitical factors, and the spot price has a certain bottom support. Pay attention to long spread opportunities. The short - term price is expected to oscillate with limited upside and downside [31][33][34]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The US tariff policy has changed, and geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The medium - to - long - term bull market foundation remains. Pay attention to international market prices [35][36]. - **Gold and Silver**: The price fluctuates greatly. The medium - to - long - term trend is upward. It is recommended to add long positions on dips while controlling positions [36][37][38]. Chemicals - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: The pulp market is bearish, but there is a possibility of a rebound at a low level. The offset paper market is neutral - bearish. It is recommended to wait and consider long positions on dips [39][40][41]. - **LPG**: The market is affected by geopolitical factors and domestic device maintenance. Pay attention to supply and demand changes [42]. - **PTA - PX**: PTA's over - supply situation has been alleviated, but the upside of processing fees is limited. PX is in a tight supply - demand situation in the first half of 2026. Do not chase long positions at high valuations [43][44][45]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The demand - side negative feedback is intensifying, and the market is in a weak pattern. Wait for macro - policy changes [45][46]. - **Methanol**: The geopolitical logic continues. Although the MTO side's shutdown weakens the fundamentals of the 05 contract, do not short [47]. - **PE**: The market is turning to a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. It is expected to decline [48][49]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation and follows cost fluctuations. Styrene is running strongly due to export news and downstream buying [50]. - **Rubber**: The market is affected by macro and geopolitical factors. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider long positions in the RU - BR spread on dips [50][54][55]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The new production capacity is being released, and the market is in an over - supply situation. The price is restricted by high inventory [57]. - **Glass**: There are still some production line cold - repairs to be realized before the Spring Festival. The market is facing high inventory pressure [58]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is in a weak state, and the demand side is expected to weaken further. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [59]. Propylene - It fluctuates with costs. Pay attention to geopolitical impacts on costs and PDH device changes. The supply - demand situation is still relatively loose, but the pressure has improved [59][60]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: The downside is limited, but the upside lacks drivers. The price will oscillate. The short - term price range of the rebar 2605 contract is expected to be between 3050 - 3200 yuan, and that of the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract is expected to be between 3200 - 3350 yuan [61]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are weakening. The price is expected to decline in the short term, but the downside is limited [61][62]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply - demand structure is still in surplus, but the inventory may improve. Pay attention to changes in macro - sentiment [63][64]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The market is oscillating. It is recommended to sell call options on the 03 contract around 13,000 [65][66]. - **Cotton**: There is a short - term callback risk, but the decline may be limited. Pay attention to downstream imports and orders [66][67]. - **Sugar**: The short - term price is oscillating strongly with increasing pressure. Pay attention to the trend of raw sugar [67][69]. - **Rubber**: It oscillates and it is recommended to wait and see, and consider long positions in the RU - BR spread on dips [70][74][75]. - **Apples**: It may continue to strengthen after a short - term adjustment. Pay attention to the Spring Festival stocking situation [75][76]. - **Red Dates**: The price will oscillate at a low level in the short term and be under pressure in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to downstream procurement [77][78]. - **Logs**: The price will oscillate strongly. The upside is limited by the lowest warehouse - receipt cost in Shandong. Consider short positions around 800 and option double - selling strategies [78][79][80].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro & RMB Exchange Rate**: The criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell reveals the core dilemma of global macro - policies and the risk of stagflation. The Fed's policy space is narrowing and its independence is being eroded, which has led to a re - balance of global capital. The recent strengthening of the RMB is driven by both external and internal factors, and it is an early signal of global capital's re - allocation. The future trends of the Powell event and the RMB will be intertwined [1][2]. - **Equity Index**: The previous trading day's equity index continued to rise with heavy volume, and the trading volume of the two markets reached a record high. However, the sustainability of the trading volume is limited, and the index may face a technical adjustment. The spring rally may continue in February, and any potential correction is expected to be temporary [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market showed resilience on Monday. Although the bond market lacks bullish drivers and the overnight interest rate has risen, if the A - share market cools down, the bond market may rebound further. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and gradually take profits on short - term long positions [5]. - **Container Shipping (European Routes)**: The container shipping futures on European routes are expected to show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Near - term contracts are supported by high spot indices and the expectation of PV cargo rush, but their upside is limited. Long - term contracts are more affected by the resumption of shipping expectations [7][9][11]. - **New Energy (Carbonate Lithium)**: The downstream of carbonate lithium is in the process of restocking. The futures price of carbonate lithium rose, and the spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain performed well. The demand for carbonate lithium is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the long - term value support is still solid [13]. - **New Energy (Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon)**: In the short - term, the rush to export PV products will drive the demand for industrial silicon and polysilicon, but the high inventory of polysilicon restricts the demand transmission. In the medium - term, the demand for polysilicon may decline significantly after the rush - export period. It is recommended to focus on the production resumption of polysilicon enterprises and consider long positions at low prices in the long - term [14][15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: Affected by the overall strength of the metal sector, the center of gravity of copper futures has shifted upwards. The second - quarter contracts have higher valuations, and the forward contracts show a BACK structure. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different price ranges [16][17][18]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Aluminum Industry Chain)**: For aluminum, the medium - to long - term price is bullish, but short - term tariff issues may put pressure on the price. For alumina, the medium - term trend is weak, and it is recommended to short at high prices. For cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [19][20]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: Zinc is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short - term [20]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Tin)**: Tin prices may continue to rise in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long on dips [21]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate in a narrow range [22]. - **Oils & Fats (Oilseeds)**: The external soybean market is expected to be weak, while the domestic soybean meal market will be near - term strong and long - term weak. Rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the progress of Australian rapeseed crushing and China - Canada negotiations [24]. - **Oils & Fats (Palm Oil)**: Palm oil is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term within the sector [24]. - **Oils & Fats (Soybean Oil)**: The global soybean supply is abundant, and the domestic soybean oil market should pay attention to the supply increment from reserve sales [24]. - **Oils & Fats (Rapeseed Oil)**: The global rapeseed supply is abundant, and attention should be paid to the results of the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China [24]. - **Energy & Oil & Gas (Fuel Oil)**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is tight due to sanctions, and the high - sulfur crack spread is falling. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is improving, and its upward drive is limited [27][28]. - **Energy & Oil & Gas (Asphalt)**: The asphalt market is affected by cost fluctuations. The winter storage policy provides some support, and it is recommended to pay attention to positive spreads, 03 basis, and crack long - allocation opportunities [29]. - **Precious Metals (Platinum & Palladium)**: Platinum and palladium are expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - to long - term. However, short - term risks of correction should be noted due to index parameter adjustments [30][31]. - **Precious Metals (Gold & Silver)**: Gold and silver reached new highs. The precious metals market is in a pattern of being easy to rise and hard to fall. It is recommended to pay attention to support levels and use dips as opportunities to add long positions [32][33]. - **Chemicals (Pulp - Offset Paper)**: The pulp futures price fell as expected, and the current market is slightly bearish. The offset paper futures price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies in the short - term [34][35]. - **Chemicals (LPG)**: The LPG market is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is relatively tight, and attention should be paid to the maintenance situation of PDH plants [35][36]. - **Chemicals (PTA - PX)**: The PTA - PX supply - demand structure has improved, but the upward drive of PTA is weakened by downstream negative feedback. PX is expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation in the first half of 2026. It is not recommended to chase high prices [36][37][39]. - **Chemicals (MEG - Bottle Chips)**: The demand for ethylene glycol is under negative feedback, and the supply - demand situation is difficult to reverse without macro - policy support. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40][41]. - **Chemicals (Methanol)**: The geopolitical logic in the methanol market continues. Although the MTO shutdown weakens the fundamentals of the 05 contract, shorting is not recommended [41][42]. - **Chemicals (PP)**: The PP market is expected to show a pattern of supply and demand reduction. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of plant maintenance [43][44]. - **Chemicals (PE)**: The PE market is shifting to a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and its upward space is limited [45][46]. - **Chemicals (Pure Benzene - Styrene)**: Pure benzene is in an oversupply situation in the short - term and follows the strength of styrene. Styrene is running strongly, but caution should be exercised when chasing high prices [47][48][50]. - **Chemicals (Rubber)**: Natural rubber is under supply pressure, and synthetic rubber is affected by cost and demand factors. Rubber is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [50][52][53]. - **Chemicals (Urea)**: The price of urea is expected to rise in the 05 contract, but a short - term correction may occur. It is recommended to hold long positions [54][55]. - **Chemicals (Soda Ash & Caustic Soda)**: Soda ash is facing over - supply expectations, and glass has high inventory pressure. Caustic soda is expected to oscillate widely with weak fundamental drivers [55][57][58]. - **Chemicals (Propylene)**: Propylene prices are mainly affected by cost. The supply is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the impact of cost changes [58][59]. - **Black Metals (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Rebar demand is seasonally weakening, and the supply of steel products is increasing. However, the downside space is limited due to support from raw materials. Steel prices are expected to oscillate [60][61]. - **Black Metals (Iron Ore)**: The iron ore price is deviating from its fundamentals. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is not recommended to chase high prices [61][62]. - **Black Metals (Coking Coal & Coke)**: Some coking enterprises have initiated a price increase. The supply of coking coal and coke is stable, and the demand is expected to increase. However, the macro - sentiment is the key factor affecting the price [63][64]. - **Black Metals (Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese)**: The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is under pressure, but they are supported by cost. They are expected to oscillate at the bottom after a correction [64]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Hogs)**: The hog market is in a situation of both decreasing supply and demand. The price is expected to oscillate narrowly with limited upside [65][66]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Cotton)**: The price of cotton has risen, but there are risks of short - term correction due to factors such as squeezed spinning profits and the price advantage of imported yarns [67][68]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Sugar)**: The sugar price is oscillating under pressure. Attention should be paid to the trend of raw sugar [68][69]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Eggs)**: The egg price is rising during the pre - holiday peak season and is expected to remain strong until the Spring Festival [70]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Apples)**: The apple futures price is under pressure at high levels. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday stocking situation [74][75]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Jujubes)**: The jujube price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term and will be under pressure in the long - term due to loose supply - demand [76]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Logs)**: The spot price of some log specifications has increased, but the futures market is dull. The inventory may have reached a turning point, and the upside of the price is limited [77][78][79]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Exchange Rate - **Market Information**: Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran; the Fed's investigation of Powell has caused market turmoil; Trump may interview a BlackRock executive for the Fed chair position [1]. - **Core Logic**: The criminal investigation of Powell reflects the core dilemma of global macro - policies and the risk of stagflation. The Fed's policy independence is being challenged, which has led to a re - balance of global capital. The RMB's appreciation is driven by both external and internal factors [1][2]. - **Exchange Rate Performance**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose in the previous trading day, and the RMB central parity rate was also adjusted upwards [1]. 3.2 Equity Index - **Market Review**: The previous trading day's equity index continued to rise with heavy volume, and the trading volume of the two markets reached a record high. The futures index also showed different trends [4]. - **Important Information**: The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into the Fed chair [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The sustainability of the trading volume is limited, and the index may face a technical adjustment. The spring rally may continue in February, and any potential correction is expected to be temporary [4]. 3.3 Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The bond market showed resilience on Monday, with most bond prices rising. The money market tightened slightly, and the yield of some bonds declined [5]. - **Important Information**: Relevant departments announced plans to focus on technological research and development in certain fields during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Although the bond market lacks bullish drivers and the overnight interest rate has risen, if the A - share market cools down, the bond market may rebound further. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and gradually take profits on short - term long positions [5]. 3.4 Container Shipping (European Routes) - **Market Review**: The container shipping futures on European routes rose across the board on the previous trading day, with near - term contracts performing strongly. The spot index also increased significantly [7][8]. - **Market Information**: The market is affected by multiple factors, including the expected PV cargo rush, the resumption of shipping by Maersk, and the approaching Spring Festival [9][10]. - **Market Outlook**: The container shipping futures on European routes are expected to show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Near - term contracts are supported by high spot indices and the expectation of PV cargo rush, but their upside is limited. Long - term contracts are more affected by the resumption of shipping expectations [7][9][11]. 3.5 New Energy 3.5.1 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Review**: The futures price of carbonate lithium rose, and the trading volume decreased. The inventory of carbonate lithium futures increased [13]. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain performed well, with prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, and cathode materials rising [13]. - **Market Outlook**: The downstream of carbonate lithium is in the process of restocking. The demand for carbonate lithium is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the long - term value support is still solid [13]. 3.5.2 Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends. The trading volume and inventory of both also changed [14]. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of the industrial silicon and PV industries performed generally. The prices of some products remained stable, while others increased slightly [14][15]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the rush to export PV products will drive the demand for industrial silicon and polysilicon, but the high inventory of polysilicon restricts the demand transmission. In the medium - term, the demand for polysilicon may decline significantly after the rush - export period. It is recommended to focus on the production resumption of polysilicon enterprises and consider long positions at low prices in the long - term [14][15]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Copper - **Market Review**: The futures prices of copper in different markets rose. The basis and the ratio of Shanghai and London copper also changed [16]. - **Industry Information**: The inventory of copper in different exchanges showed different trends, and the spot price of copper increased. Morgan Stanley changed its forecast for the Fed's interest rate policy [16][17]. - **Market Outlook**: Affected by the overall strength of the metal sector, the center of gravity of copper futures has shifted upwards. The second - quarter contracts have higher valuations, and the forward contracts show a BACK structure. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different price ranges [16][17][18]. 3.6.2 Aluminum Industry Chain - **Market Review**: The futures prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy rose. The trading volume and inventory of each also changed [19]. - **Core Logic**: For aluminum, Trump's tariff decision and the change in the PV export tax policy may affect the price. For alumina, it is affected by the performance of related varieties and is in an over - supply situation. For cast aluminum alloy, it follows the trend of aluminum and has certain support [19][20]. - **Market Outlook**: The medium - to long - term price of aluminum is bullish, but short - term tariff issues may put pressure on the price. Alumina is expected to be weak in the medium - term, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Cast aluminum alloy is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [19][20]. 3.6.3 Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of zinc rose. The trading volume and inventory also changed [20]. - **Core Logic**: The supply of zinc is relatively loose in the long - term, but the short - term supply is affected by the tightness of raw materials. The demand is weak, and the inventory situation is different at home and abroad [20][21]. - **Market Outlook**: Zinc is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short - term [20]. 3.6.4 Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of tin rose strongly. The trading volume and inventory also changed [21]. - **Market Outlook**: Tin prices may continue to rise in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long on dips [21]. 3.6.5 Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of lead oscillated narrowly. The spot price also remained stable [22]. - **Core Logic**: The supply of lead is affected by the tightness of raw materials, and the demand is weak. The inventory situation is different at home and abroad [22]. - **Market Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate in a narrow range [22]. 3.7 Oils & Fats 3.7.1 Oilseeds - **Market Review**: The report data of oilseeds were bearish, and the domestic粕类 is expected to open lower. The market will be near - term strong and long - term weak [24]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: For imported soybeans, the supply pressure from Brazil in the second quarter of

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current commodity futures market rally is mainly driven by funds rather than fundamental improvements. The market may remain strong in the short - term but the upward pace will slow and volatility will increase. In the long - run, different sectors have different outlooks [2]. - The RMB exchange rate's upward trend is marginally slowing. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 7.02, while import enterprises are advised to adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 6.96 level [5]. - The upward momentum of the stock index is weakening, and it may adjust in the short - term, but the overall trend is expected to be strong this month [6]. - Treasury bonds still need to find a bottom in the short - term, and mid - term long positions can continue to be held [7]. - The spot price of container shipping to Europe shows signs of weakness, and the futures price is expected to be in a weakening and volatile pattern in the short - term [11]. - For lithium carbonate, beware of price fluctuations caused by long - position profit - taking in the short - term, but there are still opportunities for long - term layout [14]. - For industrial silicon, beware of cost - side price fluctuations and short - term correction risks; for polysilicon, pay attention to the sustainability of price increases and terminal bid - winning situations [16]. - For copper, hold long positions in the 90,000 - 100,000 range, and do not recommend new long positions above 100,000. For zinc, it will maintain high - level volatility in the short - term. For nickel - stainless steel, it may be strong in the short - term but beware of supply - side risks. For tin, it will maintain high - level volatility. For lead, it will fluctuate [19][21][23][24][25]. - For oilseeds, the outer market is weakly volatile, and the inner - market near - month contracts may rebound. For oils and fats, they will be in wide - range fluctuations in the short - term [27][28]. - For asphalt, short - term cracking may be strong due to supply disturbances [30]. - For platinum and palladium, the long - term bull market foundation remains, but beware of short - term correction risks. For gold and silver, they are in a high - level volatile pattern, and the long - term trend is upward [34][36]. - For pulp and offset paper, the current market is neutral - to - bullish, and it is advisable to wait and see or try light - position long - buying strategies [38][39]. - For LPG, pay attention to overseas events and domestic PDH maintenance. For PTA - PX, the supply - demand pattern is good, but do not chase high prices. For MEG - bottle chips, the market is difficult to break downward in the short - term but is under long - term over - supply pressure. For methanol, it is likely to start an upward - trending and volatile phase. For PP, the short - term fundamentals are improving. For PE, the bottom is rising, but pay attention to the approaching Spring Festival. For urea, consider buying long - term contracts. For soda ash, glass, and caustic soda, they are affected by sentiment and have different fundamentals. For propylene, the price may rise due to cost support but pay attention to risks [41][45][47][49][52][55][57][58][59][60][61]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the price will fluctuate, and it is strongly volatile in the short - term. For iron ore, the short - term price is overbought, and it is advisable to reduce long positions. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the winter storage inventory transfer. For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, they are affected by news and are strongly volatile in the short - term [63][65][67][70]. - For live pigs, the price will fluctuate narrowly. For cotton, pay attention to policy adjustments and consider long - position layout at low prices. For sugar, the short - term price is strongly volatile. For eggs, the price may remain strongly volatile. For red dates, the price will be in low - level fluctuations. For logs, use a range - trading strategy [73][76][78][80][81][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market Information**: The PBOC has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months. The SHFE has adjusted the trading margin ratio and price limit range of silver futures. The US ADP employment data in December is lower than expected, while the ISM services PMI is at a high level. The preliminary value of the Eurozone CPI in December 2025 slows to 2% [1]. - **Core Judgments and Conduction Logic**: The current commodity market rally is mainly driven by funds. The market may remain strong in the short - term, but different sectors have different long - term outlooks [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate's upward trend is marginally slowing. Export and import enterprises are given different exchange - rate management strategies [3][5]. - **Stock Index**: The upward momentum of the stock index is weakening, and it may adjust in the short - term, but the overall trend is expected to be strong this month [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds still need to find a bottom in the short - term, and mid - term long positions can continue to be held [6][7]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The spot price shows signs of weakness, and the futures price is expected to be in a weakening and volatile pattern in the short - term [8][11]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: Beware of short - term price fluctuations caused by long - position profit - taking, but there are still long - term layout opportunities [14]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: For industrial silicon, beware of cost - side price fluctuations and short - term correction risks; for polysilicon, pay attention to the sustainability of price increases and terminal bid - winning situations [16]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price has fallen from a high level. Hold long positions in the 90,000 - 100,000 range, and do not recommend new long positions above 100,000 [19][20]. - **Zinc**: It will maintain high - level volatility in the short - term [21]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It may be strong in the short - term but beware of supply - side risks [23]. - **Tin**: It will maintain high - level volatility [24]. - **Lead**: It will fluctuate [25]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The outer market is weakly volatile, and the inner - market near - month contracts may rebound [26][27]. - **Oils and Fats**: They will be in wide - range fluctuations in the short - term, and pay attention to the results of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China for rapeseed oil [28]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Asphalt**: Short - term cracking may be strong due to supply disturbances [30]. Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The long - term bull market foundation remains, but beware of short - term correction risks [33][34]. - **Gold & Silver**: They are in a high - level volatile pattern, and the long - term trend is upward [35][36]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The current market is neutral - to - bullish, and it is advisable to wait and see or try light - position long - buying strategies [38][39]. - **LPG**: Pay attention to overseas events and domestic PDH maintenance [41]. - **PTA - PX**: The supply - demand pattern is good, but do not chase high prices [45]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The market is difficult to break downward in the short - term but is under long - term over - supply pressure [47]. - **Methanol**: It is likely to start an upward - trending and volatile phase [49]. - **PP**: The short - term fundamentals are improving [52]. - **PE**: The bottom is rising, but pay attention to the approaching Spring Festival [55]. - **Urea**: Consider buying long - term contracts [57]. - **Soda Ash, Glass, and Caustic Soda**: They are affected by sentiment and have different fundamentals [58][59][60]. - **Propylene**: The price may rise due to cost support but pay attention to risks [61]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coils**: The price will fluctuate, and it is strongly volatile in the short - term [63]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term price is overbought, and it is advisable to reduce long positions [65]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: Pay attention to the winter storage inventory transfer [67]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are affected by news and are strongly volatile in the short - term [70][71]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The price will fluctuate narrowly [73]. - **Cotton**: Pay attention to policy adjustments and consider long - position layout at low prices [76]. - **Sugar**: The short - term price is strongly volatile [78]. - **Eggs**: The price may remain strongly volatile [80]. - **Red Dates**: The price will be in low - level fluctuations [81]. - **Logs**: Use a range - trading strategy [83].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The US military action in Venezuela is an upgrade of the "Monroe Doctrine 2.0" strategy, which has led to a sharp increase in global risk aversion and a short - term strengthening of the US dollar index. However, in the long - term, it may accelerate the erosion of the US dollar's credit. The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately against the US dollar, but the trend is non - linear [4]. - The domestic PMI in December exceeded expectations, driven by the recovery of supply and demand and price stabilization. The overseas market focuses on the next Fed chair nominee. For silver, it's recommended that holders take profits and non - holders wait for a pullback [2]. - Short - term stock index is expected to be strong but with limited upside due to multiple factors. Treasury bonds are expected to open higher today, and medium - term long positions can be held [5][6]. - Platinum and palladium prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term due to geopolitical risks and index adjustments, but the long - term bullish foundation remains. Gold and silver are in adjustment in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. Copper prices are expected to be affected by volume and price changes. Zinc, tin, lead, and other metals have different market outlooks based on their fundamentals [9][13][15]. - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile. Iron ore prices are expected to be in a neutral pattern and fluctuate. Coking coal and coke prices are affected by inventory and demand. Ferroalloys may correct but are supported by cost [26][27][30]. - Pulp and offset paper prices are in a neutral situation and can be observed first. LPG may be supported in the short - term by geopolitical factors. PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips are affected by supply and demand and cost. Methanol is likely to start an upward - trending phase. PP and PE are in a supply - demand double - reduction pattern. Asphalt may be strong at the opening. Urea has a price increase expectation for the 05 contract. Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to fluctuate [32][34][39]. - Hog prices are expected to be supported in the short - term by consumption and supply changes. Oilseeds show a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Oils may strengthen slightly. Cotton prices may correct in the short - term and rise in the long - term. Sugar prices are expected to open slightly lower. Apples may wait for a pullback to go long. Red dates are expected to be in a low - level shock [65][67][68] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - Macro: Pay attention to geopolitical risks such as the US attack on Venezuela and the situation in Iran. The reset of the commodity benchmark index poses a selling risk to gold and silver [1]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The US military action in Venezuela has led to an increase in global risk aversion. The US dollar may show a short - long and long - short pattern, and the RMB is expected to appreciate moderately against the US dollar [4]. - Stock Index: The post - holiday capital environment supports the stock index, but there are many factors restricting its upside, and it is expected to be strong but with limited space in the short - term [5]. - Treasury Bonds: The new regulations on bond fund redemption fees are beneficial to the bond market, and the US military action in Venezuela may also benefit the bond market. Treasury bonds are expected to open higher today [6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Platinum & Palladium: Prices were volatile last week. In the short - term, they will be affected by the US military action in Venezuela and index adjustments. In the long - term, the bullish foundation remains. It's recommended to be vigilant against callback risks in the short - term [9][13]. - Gold & Silver: They are in adjustment in the short - term. Gold should pay attention to the support levels, and silver has adjustment pressure. They are bullish in the long - term [14][15]. - Copper: The external copper price was stable during the holiday. The US - Venezuela event has limited impact on the domestic opening. It is recommended to hold long positions and conduct high - selling and low - buying operations [16][18]. - Zinc: The upper space is limited, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term [19]. - Tin: The high - price negative feedback has come, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [20]. - Carbonate Lithium: In the short - term, the price is driven by market sentiment, but there is a risk of large fluctuations. In the long - term, it has the opportunity to go long on dips [20][22]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, and it has the value of long - term position building on dips. Polysilicon prices are rising, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the rise [22][24]. - Lead: It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17600, with strong support at 16500 [24]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot Rolled Coil: Steel production has slightly increased, and the market is in a weak shock pattern. The price range of rebar 2605 is expected to be between 2900 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil 2605 is between 3000 - 3400 [26]. - Iron Ore: The inventory continues to accumulate. The high supply and rigid demand balance each other, and the price is expected to fluctuate [27]. - Coking Coal & Coke: The fourth round of coke price cuts has been fully implemented. The coking coal inventory structure has improved, and the future price depends on the domestic mine resumption. The coke supply - demand structure may improve if the steel mills' production increases [28][29]. - Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese: They may correct in the short - term, but the cost provides support below [30]. Energy and Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The pulp market is neutral, and the offset paper price is affected by cost and supply - demand. It is recommended to observe first [32][33]. - LPG: Geopolitical factors may provide short - term support. Attention should be paid to overseas events and domestic PDH maintenance [34][35]. - PTA - PX: They fluctuate with cost. PX is expected to be in short supply in the second quarter, and PTA processing fees are expected to rise with limited space [36][39]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The demand is weakening, and the inventory is high. The valuation is under pressure before the macro - narrative is realized [40][43]. - Methanol: It is likely to start an upward - trending phase, and attention should be paid to factors such as inventory and MTO profit [44][45]. - PP: The supply and demand are both decreasing. The core concern is the scale of January's device maintenance [46][48]. - PE: Geopolitical conflicts may cause short - term disturbances. The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand is weakening [48][50]. - Asphalt: The short - term cracking may be strong due to supply disturbances caused by the US - Venezuela conflict [51][52]. - Urea: The 05 contract has a price increase expectation, and it is recommended to try to buy the far - month contract [54][55]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: Soda ash has an oversupply expectation, glass has high inventory pressure, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate widely with weak fundamentals [56][57][59]. - Logs: The price has limited fluctuation space, and it is recommended to observe or use a small - interval grid strategy [60][61][62]. - Propylene: The domestic supply is loose, and the price may be affected by cost in the short - term with limited upward space [63]. Agricultural Products - Hogs: The approaching Spring Festival and the decrease in average出栏 weight may support the price in the short - term [65][67]. - Oilseeds: They show a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The supply rhythm of imported soybeans affects the price, and the supply of domestic bean粕 and菜粕 has different situations [68][69][70]. - Oils: They may strengthen slightly after the holiday, and palm oil is relatively strong within the sector [71]. - Cotton: The price may correct in the short - term due to factors such as weak downstream demand, but it has an upward space in the long - term [72][73]. - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to open slightly lower, suppressed by the decline in the external market [74][75]. - Apples: The consumption slowdown causes short - term pressure, and it is recommended to wait for a pullback to go long [76][77]. - Red Dates: They are in a low - level shock in the short - term, and the price will be under pressure in the long - term due to oversupply [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - Overseas: The US GDP in Q3 grew by 4.3% year - on - year, and the job market recovered with the initial jobless claims falling to 214,000 last week, which weakened the rate - cut expectation [1]. - Domestic: The government will continue a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. The key task in 2026 is to expand domestic demand, but the domestic demand in November was weak [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - In the short term, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate may approach and briefly break through 7.0. In 2026, it is expected to break through 7.0 and depreciate moderately, driven by factors such as the narrowing of the monetary policy cycle gap, the strengthening of domestic economic fundamentals, and the inflow of international capital [3]. Stock Index - The upward drive of the stock index has strengthened, but there is still pressure above. It is expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the short term [4]. Treasury Bonds - Maintain a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term bond market, and use a mid - line strategy to bet on monetary policy support. Adopt a band - trading strategy for short - term trading. Hold mid - term long positions and consider taking profits on short - term long positions [5]. Container Shipping on the European Line - The spot price increase has encountered resistance, and the futures price has fallen under pressure. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and the future trend is uncertain [5][6]. Commodities - **Platinum and Palladium**: In the medium - long term, the bull market foundation of platinum remains. In the short term, beware of adjustment risks due to the rapid expansion of the spot - futures price difference [9][10]. - **Gold and Silver**: In the short term, gold and silver are oscillating at high levels. Gold is still in a relatively strong state, while silver has high price risks. In the medium - long term, they are expected to rise [11][12]. - **Copper**: The multi - empty game in the 96,000 - 97,000 range has intensified. Consider different trading strategies according to different situations [12][13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the medium term; alumina is in an oversupply situation; casting aluminum alloy is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [14][15]. - **Zinc**: It will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term [15]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: They are operating strongly, but beware of the height [16]. - **Tin**: It will be in a wide - range oscillation, and use an interval - trading strategy [18]. - **Lead**: It will oscillate in the range of 16,700 - 17,500 in the short term [19]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are oscillating at a low level, with support below and pressure above [20]. - **Iron Ore**: The price fluctuation has decreased, and it will run in an interval [20][21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The inventory structure of coking coal is expected to improve, and the downside space of the coking coal futures is limited. The valuation repair drive of coke may weaken [22]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They are expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the short term, but the upward space is limited [22]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The current market is slightly bullish. Consider short - term low - buying operations [24][25][26]. - **Crude Oil**: The tense situation between the US and Venezuela has brought upward drive to short - term oil prices [26][27][28]. - **LPG**: The near - term is supported, while the expectation is under pressure [29][30]. - **PTA - PX**: PX has a good supply - demand pattern and is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. PTA's processing fee is expected to rise, but the space is limited [31][33]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand balance has improved slightly, but the inventory and cost factors still suppress the valuation [35][36]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are mixed, with a near - term weak and far - term strong expectation [37]. - **PP**: The supply pressure is expected to be relieved in January, and it can be considered to go long at a low price [39][40]. - **PE**: The supply pressure may be relieved, and the spot price has rebounded [42][43]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an oversupply situation, and styrene is oscillating [43][44]. - **Asphalt**: The market is oscillating and bullish in the short term, and pay attention to the winter - storage policy and geopolitical factors [44][45][46]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price is oscillating under the influence of emotions, and the overall fundamental pressure is high [47]. - **Urea**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support below and pressure above [50]. - **Soda Ash and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is waiting for supply variables, glass needs to digest inventory, and caustic soda is expected to oscillate weakly [50][51][53]. - **Log**: It is in an oscillatory market, and consider double - selling strategies [53]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level before more overhauls occur [55]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: In the long - term, it can be bullish, but in the short - to - medium term, focus on the fundamentals. The near - month has high supply pressure [57]. - **Oilseeds**: The outer - market soybean will oscillate in the short term, and the inner - market soybean meal depends on the reserve - release supply [58][59]. - **Oils and Fats**: They are in a wide - range oscillation, with palm oil being relatively strong [59][60]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the hedging pressure on cotton prices is being digested. In the long - term, the supply - demand may be tight, and pay attention to pre - holiday orders [61][62][63]. - **Sugar**: The short - term basis has been repaired, and the domestic price may oscillate [63][64]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and the price is under pressure. Consider light - position long positions for rebound [64]. - **Apples**: The near - term is strong, and the far - term is weak. Wait for the retracement to go long [65][66]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term price is oscillating at a low level, and pay attention to pre - holiday procurement. The long - term supply - demand is loose, and the price is under pressure [67]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US job market has recovered, and the GDP in Q3 grew strongly. In China, the government will continue a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, but the domestic demand in November was weak [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central bank's fourth - quarter meeting emphasized maintaining the stability of the capital market [2]. Stock Index - The stock index was generally strong except for the Shanghai 50 index. The Beijing property - market policy is beneficial to the real - estate sector, but the index still faces pressure above [4]. Treasury Bonds - The trading volume of treasury bonds decreased, and the rebound momentum was not sustained. Adopt a mid - line strategy for the medium - term and a band - trading strategy for the short - term [5]. Container Shipping on the European Line - The futures price of the container shipping on the European line fell under pressure. There are positive factors such as the Spring Festival capacity reduction plan and negative factors such as the poor implementation of the price increase [5][6]. Commodities - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices of platinum and palladium fluctuated, and the trading of futures was affected by factors such as the Fed's policy and the supply - demand fundamentals [9]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver were oscillating at high levels. The market was affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate expectation and the supply - demand situation [11]. - **Copper**: The price of copper was in a multi - empty game in the 96,000 - 97,000 range, and different trading strategies were recommended [12][13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be stable in the short term, alumina is in an oversupply situation, and casting aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up with aluminum [14][15]. - **Zinc**: The price of zinc was oscillating widely, affected by factors such as the LME inventory and the supply - demand situation [15]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel were rising, but the fundamental improvement was limited [16]. - **Tin**: The price of tin was oscillating widely and was under pressure at night. It is expected to be in an interval - trading range [18]. - **Lead**: The price of lead was rebounding slightly, affected by factors such as the LME inventory and the supply - demand situation [19]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil were oscillating, affected by factors such as the cost of raw materials and the demand [20]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore was oscillating, with supply pressure and demand support [20][21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production of coking coal is expected to decline, and the demand for coke is weakening. The inventory structure of coking coal is expected to improve [22]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were oscillating, affected by factors such as the supply - demand situation and the cost [22]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The prices of pulp and offset paper were oscillating at a low level. The supply of pulp was affected by factors such as the Indonesian flood, and the demand for offset paper was expected to improve [24][25][26]. - **Crude Oil**: The price of crude oil was affected by the tense situation between the US and Venezuela, and it is expected to rise in the short term [26][27][28]. - **LPG**: The LPG price was affected by the supply - demand situation and the international market, with a near - term support and a far - term pressure [29][30]. - **PTA - PX**: The supply - demand situation of PX and PTA was complex, and the prices were expected to be affected by factors such as the production capacity and the demand [31][33]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand balance of MEG and bottle chips has improved slightly, but the inventory and cost factors still suppress the valuation [35][36]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals of methanol were mixed, with a near - term weak and far - term strong expectation [37]. - **PP**: The supply pressure of PP is expected to be relieved in January, and the price is expected to rise [39][40]. - **PE**: The supply pressure of PE may be relieved, and the spot price has rebounded [42][43]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an oversupply situation, and styrene is oscillating [43][44]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt market is oscillating and bullish in the short term, affected by factors such as the winter - storage policy and geopolitical factors [44][45][46]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price is oscillating under the influence of emotions, and the overall fundamental pressure is high [47]. - **Urea**: The urea market is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support below and pressure above [50]. - **Soda Ash and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is waiting for supply variables, glass needs to digest inventory, and caustic soda is expected to oscillate weakly [50][51][53]. - **Log**: The log market is oscillating, and double - selling strategies can be considered [53]. - **Propylene**: The propylene price is expected to oscillate at a low level before more overhauls occur [55]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The price of pigs is affected by factors such as the supply - demand situation and policies. The long - term is bullish, and the short - to - medium term focuses on the fundamentals [57]. - **Oilseeds**: The outer - market soybean is oscillating, and the inner - market soybean meal depends on the reserve - release supply [58][59]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats are oscillating widely, with palm oil and rapeseed oil rebounding [59][60]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is affected by factors such as the supply - demand situation and policies. Pay attention to pre - holiday orders [61][62][63]. - **Sugar**: The short - term basis of sugar has been repaired, and the domestic price may oscillate [63][64]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and the price is under pressure. Consider light - position long positions for rebound [64]. - **Apples**: The near - term apple price is strong, and the far - term is weak. Wait for the retracement to go long [65][66]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term red - date price is oscillating at a low level, and pay attention to pre - holiday procurement. The long - term supply - demand is loose, and the price is under pressure [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, the RMB is likely to be moderately strong against the US dollar, mostly in a low - volatility range with limited trading value. Key factors include clear policy support, enhanced independent exchange - rate fluctuations, and a resonance of internal and external environments. However, potential risks such as high long - position inventories of USD/HKD and the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hikes should be noted [3]. - The entry of the national team only boosts the market sentiment in the short term. The stock index is expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term, and the small and medium - cap stock indexes may face pressure [4]. - For the bond market, it is not pessimistic in the medium term. Mid - term long positions can be held, while short - term long positions can consider taking profits [5]. - In the container shipping European route, there is a bull - bear mix. The price is expected to be supported in January due to shipping companies' price - holding intentions, but factors such as weak economic data, sufficient shipping capacity, and the expected resumption of Red Sea routes may bring pressure [6]. - For platinum and palladium, the long - term bullish foundation for platinum remains. In the short term, attention should be paid to the risk of adjustment due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. For gold and silver, be cautious about short - term callbacks, and maintain a long - term bullish view. For copper, the market sentiment is high, but the price increase did not meet expectations. For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly. For zinc, it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term. For nickel and stainless steel, they had a short - term correction, and attention should be paid to the supply and demand situation. For tin, it is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips. For lithium carbonate, the short - term price may fluctuate more widely, and there are opportunities for long positions in the long term. For industrial silicon, it is in a supply - demand weak situation, and for polysilicon, the trading logic is mainly technical [9][11][13][16][19][20][22][23][24][26]. - For steel products, the price is expected to fluctuate. The price range of the rebar main contract 2605 is likely between 2900 - 3300, and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract 2605 is likely between 3000 - 3400. For iron ore, the downward space is expected to be limited. For coking coal and coke, if the upward trend continues, it may drive a new round of terminal restocking. For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, the market is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and there may be a short - term rebound [30][31][32][33][34][36]. - For pulp and offset paper, the short - term strategy is mainly to wait and see. For crude oil, the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation may drive up short - term oil prices. For LPG, the near - term is still supported. For PTA - PX, there is no obvious driver, and it will fluctuate with the cost side. For MEG - bottle chips, the short - term downward driving force is weakened, but the medium - and long - term situation is still under pressure. For methanol, it is recommended to maintain a reverse spread. For PP, the cost side provides strong support, and there may be a short - term rebound. For PE, the spot side is weak, and the supply - demand pressure is large. For pure benzene - styrene, pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. For asphalt, if the US does not directly declare war on Venezuela, the upward space is limited. For rubber, both natural and synthetic rubber are expected to maintain a wide - range shock. For urea, the 01 contract is expected to continue to fluctuate. For soda ash, it is waiting for unexpected supply changes. For glass, the near - month 01 will follow the delivery logic, and the far - month is affected by production line cold repairs. For caustic soda, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For logs, the current price has limited trading value. For propylene, it is expected to maintain a shock pattern [38][40][42][44][45][46][47][49][50][52][53][54][55][57][58][60][61][62][63][65][67][68][70][71][72][75][76][78][79][80]. - For oilseeds, the external soybean market will focus on demand in the short term and is expected to fluctuate around the cost line in the medium term. The domestic soybean meal will continue the long - spread trend in the short term, and the medium - term supply depends on reserve releases. For oils, the short - term trend is wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to production and biodiesel information. For cotton, it is recommended to build long positions on dips, paying attention to downstream orders and hedging pressure. For sugar, the price will remain weak. For apples, the strategy is mainly to buy on dips. For red dates, the short - term downward space may be limited, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday procurement [81][82][83][84][85][86][87][88][89]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates in December, the US employment market cooled, and the UK's CPI decline increased the expectation of an interest - rate cut. Domestically, policies are "seeking progress while maintaining stability," and in November, industrial production was resilient but domestic demand was weak [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. Key information includes China's fiscal revenue growth, the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, and the UK's CPI decline. The RMB is expected to be moderately strong in the short term, with potential risks [2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose collectively in the previous trading day. The entry of the national team boosted market sentiment, but the index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and small and medium - cap indexes may face pressure [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rose on Wednesday. The market sentiment improved, and it is not pessimistic in the medium term. Mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can consider taking profits [4][5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The night - session prices of platinum and palladium rose to new highs this year. The price is affected by factors such as the Fed's policy, supply - demand fundamentals, and EU policies. In the long term, the bullish foundation for platinum remains, and short - term adjustment risks should be noted [9][10]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices rose. Silver shows a long - squeeze phenomenon. The short - term focus is on callback risks, and the long - term view is bullish [11][12]. - **Copper**: The copper price rebounded. The market sentiment was high, but the increase did not meet expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure around 93500 - 94000, and downstream enterprises can consider buying futures on dips for hedging [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly. The fundamentals of aluminum are relatively stable, alumina is in a supply - surplus situation, and cast aluminum alloy has strong support [16][17][18]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices had support at the bottom and rebounded slightly at night. In the short term, it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock, and there may be entry opportunities [19][20]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They had a short - term correction. The nickel ore market is expected to be stable and strong, and the stainless - steel market is affected by export regulations. Attention should be paid to the supply and demand situation [20][21]. - **Tin**: Tin prices were strong. It is recommended to enter the market on dips, and the short - term view is not to short [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price rose sharply. The short - term price may fluctuate more widely, and there are opportunities for long positions in the long term. Attention should be paid to supply shocks and demand declines [22][23]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak situation, and polysilicon's trading logic is mainly technical. The long - term price of industrial silicon has limited downward space, and polysilicon's fundamentals are ineffective [24][26]. - **Lead**: Lead prices were weakly volatile. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500, with strong support around 16500 [27]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices rebounded slightly but faced pressure above. After the central economic work conference, the pricing of the steel market returned to fundamentals. Supply may slow down the reduction, demand is seasonally weak, and inventory is in a de - stocking trend. The price is expected to fluctuate [28][30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: The price rebounded. After macro events, the trading logic returned to fundamentals. Supply is relatively restrained, demand is in a bottom - grinding stage, and the price is supported by coking coal [32]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal price may be affected by winter restocking, and the coke price may continue to decline. If the upward trend continues, it may drive a new round of terminal restocking [33][34]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: The market is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. Supply is likely to continue to decline, demand is expected to decrease, and inventory is at a high level. There may be a short - term rebound [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp prices fluctuated, and offset paper prices were weakly volatile. The Crofton pulp mill's shutdown was postponed, and the pulp port inventory is still high. The short - term strategy for both is to wait and see [38][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices stopped falling and rebounded. The US - Venezuela tension may drive up short - term oil prices, and attention should be paid to the development of the situation [42][43][44]. - **LPG**: The near - term is still supported. The supply increased slightly, demand remained stable, and attention should be paid to marginal changes [45][46]. - **PTA - PX**: There is no obvious driver, and it will fluctuate with the cost side. PX supply is expected to be high, PTA supply and demand are in a tight - balance situation in December, and the polyester demand is expected to decline seasonally in December [47][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The short - term downward driving force is weakened, but the medium - and long - term situation is still under pressure. Supply has shown initial signs of support, and demand is expected to decline seasonally in December [50][52]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to maintain a reverse spread. Factors such as commodity trends and unloading problems have affected the price, and the unloading problem will be resolved in the future [53][54]. - **PP**: The cost side provides strong support, and there may be a short - term rebound. Supply may be relieved in January, and demand has some support [55][57]. - **PE**: The spot side is weak, and the supply - demand pressure is large. Supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing, especially in the agricultural film sector [58][60]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The supply of pure benzene is slightly decreasing, and the demand is weak. The supply of styrene has increased, and the demand is stable [60][61]. - **Asphalt**: If the US does not directly declare war on Venezuela, the upward space is limited. The supply and demand have changed slightly, and the US - Venezuela situation may affect the supply of heavy oil [62]. - **Rubber**: Both natural and synthetic rubber are expected to maintain a wide - range shock. Natural rubber is affected by supply - side disturbances and weak demand. Synthetic rubber has limited fundamental improvement, and the upward space is restricted [63][65][67]. - **Urea**: The 01 contract is expected to continue to fluctuate. High supply pressures the price, but export policies relieve the pressure, and the inventory is in a de - stocking trend [68][70]. - **Soda Ash, Glass, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is waiting for unexpected supply changes, glass's near - month 01 will follow the delivery logic, and the far - month is affected by production line cold repairs. Caustic soda prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to supply pressure and weakening demand [71][72][75]. - **Logs**: The current price has limited trading value. It is in a position - shifting market, with the inventory decreasing and the spot price falling [76][78]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to maintain a shock pattern. The supply is relatively loose, demand is stable, and it is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [79][80]. Agricultural Products - **Oilseeds**: The external soybean market will focus on demand in the short term and is expected to fluctuate around the cost line in the medium term. The domestic soybean meal will continue the long - spread trend in the short term, and the medium - term supply depends on reserve releases. The rapeseed meal is in a supply - demand weak situation [81][82]. - **Oils**: The short - term trend is wide - range shock. Palm oil is affected by supply pressure, soybean oil is affected by soybean auctions, and rapeseed oil is affected by global supply. Attention should be paid to production and biodiesel information [82][83]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to build long positions on dips. The downstream shows resilience, but short - term pressure exists. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and hedging pressure [84]. - **Sugar**: The price will remain weak. Global sugar production and trade data affect the price, such as India's high production and Brazil's high exports [85][86]. - **Apples**: The strategy is mainly to buy on dips. Consumption is sluggish, and inventory is slowly decreasing [87][88]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term downward space may be limited. New - season production is slightly reduced, and new - product supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to pre - holiday procurement [89].

Group 1: Financial Futures Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a more dovish tone. The US employment market is cooling, and the domestic economy continues the "seeking progress while maintaining stability" policy. The RMB exchange rate is likely to be moderately stronger in the short term, but there are potential risks. The stock index is in a shrinking adjustment, and the bond market can be bullish in the medium - term [2][5][6]. Summary by Directory - **Macro**: The US unemployment rate reached a four - year high. Investment and consumption growth are expected to recover next year, and the real estate supply side should control incremental and revitalize inventory [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and it is likely to be moderately stronger in the short term, supported by policies, exchange rate characteristics, and internal - external environment. However, there are potential risks such as high long - positions in the USD/HKD market and the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike [3][5][6]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index fell collectively, and the US non - farm data had limited impact. The market is expected to stabilize and rebound after continuous adjustments, but the upward drive is insufficient [6][7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is weak, but there is no need to be pessimistic from the fundamental perspective. Mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term trading should control positions [8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a long - short tug - of war, with positive factors such as spot price increases and seasonal cargo volume, and negative factors such as the expectation of resuming navigation and future supply - demand pressure [9][10][11]. Group 2: Commodities Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The prices of precious metals are expected to rise in the medium - long term, with short - term high - level fluctuations. Base metals have different trends, and energy - chemical products are affected by various factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitics [15][18][20]. Summary by Directory - **Precious Metals** - **Platinum & Palladium**: The prices rose at night, and are expected to be boosted by central bank gold purchases and investment demand in the medium - long term. Attention should be paid to the internal - external price difference [13][14][15]. - **Gold & Silver**: The prices were in high - level fluctuations. The US non - farm data had limited impact on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Short - term high - level fluctuations are expected, and it is bullish in the medium - long term [16][17][18]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The price was in high - level adjustment. The non - farm data had little impact, and it is necessary to wait for the recovery of trading volume to determine the trend [19][20]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be in shock - strengthening, alumina in weak operation, and cast aluminum alloy in shock - strengthening. The macro - drive is suspended, and the fundamentals are different [23][24]. - **Zinc**: The downstream receiving capacity is limited, and it is in weak operation, with short - term wide - range fluctuations expected [28]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The prices fell sharply due to market sentiment. The fundamentals of nickel are complex, and stainless steel is affected by export regulations [28][29]. - **Tin**: The price was in technical adjustment, and it is expected to be in wide - range fluctuations in the short term, with opportunities to enter the market on dips [30][31]. - **Lead**: The price was under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 in the short term, with strong support around 16500 [36]. - **Energy - Chemical Products** - **Paper Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp spot price fell, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The offset paper is affected by the pulp price and supply [46][47][48]. - **Crude Oil**: The price hit a new low this year, and it is expected to be in weak fluctuations in the short term, with attention paid to EIA inventory [49][50]. - **LPG**: The price was stable while crude oil fell. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was stable [51][52]. - **PTA - PX**: There is no obvious upward drive, and it will fluctuate with the cost side. The downstream polyester demand is expected to be high in the short term, but the negative feedback will be transmitted in December [53][54][55]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The supply negative feedback appears, and the price is under pressure in the long - term, with the short - term valuation fluctuating with the macro - sentiment [56][57]. - **Methanol**: Maintain the reverse spread strategy [59]. - **PP**: The cost side provides strong support, and the supply pressure may be relieved in January, with potential for a short - term rebound [60][61][62]. - **PE**: The supply is increasing while the demand is decreasing, and the upward space is limited. The PP supply - demand expectation is better than that of PE [63][64]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [66]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking is weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to rise [67][68]. - **Asphalt**: The bottom space is limited, and it is in shock in the short term, with attention paid to the winter - storage policy [69][70]. - **Rubber**: The price center is moving up in shock. Natural rubber is in a wide - range shock, and synthetic rubber is running strongly with limited upward space [73][74]. - **Urea**: The market is in the range between fundamentals and policies, with the 01 contract expected to continue to fluctuate [75][76]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is waiting for new supply variables, glass is affected by cold - repair and inventory, and caustic soda is expected to be in weak fluctuations [76][77][78]. - **Log**: The price is in low - level shock, with high uncertainty in trading [79][80][81]. - **Propylene**: It is in shock, with a loose supply situation and unchanged supply - demand pressure [81][82]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The supply - demand situations of different agricultural products vary, with some having short - term pressure and others having long - term potential [84][86][89]. Summary by Directory - **Hogs**: The supply - demand in the peak season needs verification. The long - term can be bullish, but the short - term is based on fundamentals [83][84]. - **Oilseeds**: The outer market is weak, and the domestic soybean meal is in a positive spread in the short term. Wait for low - buying opportunities [85][86]. - **Oils**: The delay of the US biofuel policy makes the oils market weak [87]. - **Cotton**: The domestic downstream shows resilience, and it may rise in the medium - long term, with short - term pressure. Consider buying on dips [89]. - **Sugar**: The price is in weak decline [90][91]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is excessive, but there is a short - term rebound opportunity. Be cautious with long positions [92]. - **Apples**: The price stops falling and rebounds. Consider buying on dips [93][94]. - **Jujubes**: The new jujube harvest is almost completed. The short - term price may have limited downward space, and pay attention to downstream pre - holiday procurement [95].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a more dovish tone than expected. The subsequent non - farm data will affect the direction of interest rate cut expectations. Domestically, the government will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, with expanding domestic demand as the primary task for next year [2]. - In the short term, the RMB is likely to be moderately strong against the US dollar, with low - volatility trading. The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the bond market sentiment is weak, but the downside of the index is limited. The container shipping market for the European route will continue to see a tug - of - war between bulls and bears [5][8][9]. - For commodities, precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - long term and volatile in the short term; base metals have different trends, such as copper showing an internal - weak and external - strong pattern, aluminum being oscillatingly strong, and zinc having short - term wide - range fluctuations; energy and chemical products also have diverse trends, like crude oil being weakly volatile, and LPG being oscillating; agricultural products have different outlooks, for example, the supply - demand situation of pigs in the peak season needs verification, and the oil market is weakly operating [16][19][20][23][43][44][83] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Pay attention to the release of the US non - farm payroll report. The Fed's interest rate cut decision and domestic economic data, such as the industrial production in November showing resilience while consumption and investment facing pressure, are important factors affecting the market [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: It continues the callback trend. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on the previous trading day. In the short term, it is likely to be moderately strong against the US dollar, supported by policy, seasonal factors, and the external environment [3][5]. - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day's stock index closed down, and the trading volume decreased. The fundamentals are still weak, and the market sentiment is cautious. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [6][8]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market closed down on Monday, and the market sentiment is weak. The economic data in November shows weakening economic momentum, but the market focus is not on the fundamentals. The policy focus on expanding domestic demand has not yet formed a clear impact on the bond market [8][9]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase is less than expected. The market is in a tug - of - war between the support of spot prices and the expectation of future capacity release. In the short term, the market will continue this situation, and different contracts need to pay attention to different factors [9][10][12] Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The prices rose sharply at night. The Fed's expected loose monetary policy and the EU's relaxation of the fuel - vehicle ban are beneficial to the demand for platinum and palladium in automobile catalysts. It is recommended to pay attention to the internal - external price difference of platinum [14][16]. - **Gold & Silver**: The prices are in a high - level shock. Focus on the release of the US non - farm payroll report tonight. In the short term, it is expected to be in a high - level shock, and bullish in the medium - long term [17][18][19]. - **Copper**: The fixed - asset investment growth rate declined, and the copper price shows an internal - weak and external - strong pattern. Pay attention to the high - level adjustment risk and support at 90,000 [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The trends are different. Aluminum is expected to be oscillatingly strong in the medium term; alumina is weakly operating; cast aluminum alloy is oscillatingly strong [22][23][24]. - **Zinc**: It is in short - term wide - range fluctuations. The macro environment is favorable, and the fundamentals show tight supply at the mine end and support from inventory de - stocking [25][26]. - **Tin**: It is in a technical correction. Although the supply at the mine end is tight, the downstream demand has not increased significantly. It is expected to enter a wide - range shock stage [26]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is oscillatingly strong. In the short term, it is driven by market sentiment, and in the medium - long term, it has a long - value support from the demand side [27][28]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has limited downside space in the medium - long term; polysilicon is in a wait - and - see situation, with the trading logic mainly based on technical aspects [29][30]. - **Lead**: The inventory accumulation exerts pressure. The price is in a weak shock, and it is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,500 in the short term [31]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are oscillatingly weak. After the central economic work conference, the market pricing returns to the fundamentals. The supply may slow down in the reduction, and the demand is seasonally weak. The prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range [32][33]. - **Iron Ore**: The price first fell and then rose. The trading logic returns to the fundamentals. The supply is relatively stable, the demand is in a bottom - grinding stage, and the price is expected to have limited downside space [34]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are in a weak consolidation. The supply of coking coal has limited marginal changes, and the demand is weak, resulting in a marginal oversupply. The supply of coke may increase in the future, and the price is likely to continue to decline [36][37]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They face a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with limited upside space. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is at a high level [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price is in an oscillating state. The high - price pulp has poor sales, and the demand is weak. The offset paper is affected by the pulp price and supply factors. It is recommended to wait and see [40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The price hit a new low this year due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. It is weakly oscillating in the short term, and attention should be paid to the potential support of Brent crude oil at $60 per barrel [42][43]. - **LPG**: It is oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is relatively stable. The external market is in an oscillating pattern, and the domestic spot is relatively strong [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: There is no obvious driving force, and it fluctuates with the cost side. The supply of PX is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the demand for polyester will decline in the later stage. The PTA processing fee has limited repair space [46][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The supply negative feedback appears, but it is difficult to reverse the situation. The demand is declining, and the supply has some support signals. The short - term downward driving force is weakened, but the long - term oversupply situation remains [50][52]. - **Methanol**: Maintain the reverse - spread view. The 1 - 5 spread shows a positive - spread pattern, mainly due to market trends and unloading problems. It is recommended to add positions in the 1 - 5 reverse - spread [53][54]. - **PP**: The cost side still has strong support. The supply pressure may be alleviated in January, and the demand has some support. It is necessary to pay attention to the spot situation [56][57]. - **PE**: Pay attention to the spot situation. It shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The supply pressure is large, and it is difficult to form strong support [58][59]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Styrene's inventory decreased on Monday. Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [60][61][62]. - **Fuel Oil**: The cracking is weak. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the high - sulfur cracking is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [63]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cracking is rising. The supply is tightening, and the cracking has an upward driving force. It is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. - **Asphalt**: The bottom - space is limited, and the winter - storage policies are gradually introduced. The supply is slightly reduced, the demand is weakening, and the cost side is weakly oscillating. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [65][66]. - **Rubber**: The macro atmosphere is warm, but the fundamental benefits are limited. The supply of natural rubber is slightly tightened, the downstream demand support is weakening, and the inventory is still accumulating. It is expected to oscillate [68][70]. - **Urea**: The futures and spot prices tend to converge. The supply is high, and the price is under pressure, but the export policy weakens the downward driving force. It is expected to oscillate [71][72]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: They fluctuate at a low level. Soda ash has an increasing over - supply expectation, and glass may have some production - line cold - repairs in the future. Caustic soda has weak fundamentals and is expected to decline weakly [73][74][75]. - **Log**: The short positions left the market intensively, and the price rose and then fell. The price is in a game state, with limited trading value [76][78][79]. - **Propylene**: It is weakly oscillating. The cost pressure is increasing, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is not strong. It will remain in a weak state before more maintenance [79][80]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: The supply - demand situation in the peak season needs verification. The policy may affect the long - term supply, and the short - term is mainly based on fundamentals. The near - month has an over - supply pressure, and the far - month is stronger [82][83]. - **Oilseeds**: The customs - clearance time is extended. The import soybean buying sentiment is reduced, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different supply - demand situations. The external market of soybeans is weakly oscillating, and the domestic soybean meal is in a positive - spread trend in the short term [84][85][86]. - **Oils**: They are weakly operating. Palm oil is under supply pressure, soybean oil is affected by soybean auctions, and rapeseed oil is affected by market news. The short - term price center of gravity is moving down [87][88]. - **Cotton**: Pay attention to downstream orders. The domestic cotton supply - demand is expected to be tight in the long term, and the price is relatively strong, but there is short - term pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips [89]. - **Sugar**: The price hits a new low. Affected by the high - supply situation in major producing countries, the sugar price is in a weak state [90][91][92]. - **Eggs**: The chicken culling is in progress. The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, but there is a turning point. It is recommended to participate in long positions lightly if betting on a rebound [93]. - **Apples**: The price has a large retracement. The consumption is not smooth, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is recommended to buy on dips [94][95]. - **Jujubes**: The new - product supply is sufficient. The new - season jujube production is expected to decrease slightly, and the short - term price has limited downside space. Pay attention to downstream pre - holiday purchases [96][97].