天风国际证券分析师郭明錤表示，苹果在2026年第二季度将面临与第一季度相似幅度的内存价格上涨， 而苹果的应对策略十分明确：利用市场混乱确保芯片供应、承担成本压力并抢占市场份额，随后通过服 务业务弥补损失。 这一判断基于三星电子和SK海力士近期成功将供应给苹果的低功耗DRAM价格较上季度提高近一倍的 事实。据华尔街见闻此前文章提及，1月27日，韩国媒体zdnet报道，三星电子一季度LPDDR芯片价格上 涨超过80%，SK海力士涨幅约为100%，苹果作为年出货量约2.5亿部iPhone的关键客户不得不接受这一 涨幅。 1月28日，"最懂苹果的分析师"郭明錤在社交平台X上发帖称，苹果能够在供应紧张环境下锁定内存供 应协议，充分展现其强大的议价能力。 他指出："对于大多数非人工智能品牌而言，即便你愿意支付高价，也无法保证一定能获得货源。苹果 能够达成这样的交易，足以证明他们拥有多么强大的议价能力。" 据华尔街见闻文章，市场数据显示，LPDDR5价格已在去年四季度上涨约40%。TrendForce预测，一季 度通用型DRAM价格将环比上涨55-60%。一位业内人士表示，一季度的涨幅更大，整体涨幅至少达到 60%。 如果 ...

Core Insights - Global commodity markets are experiencing significant capital inflows, with a focus on precious metals and agricultural products, leading to a record high in open interest value [1][4] - As of January 23, 2023, the total value of open interest in global commodity markets increased by nearly 6% week-over-week, reaching $1.83 trillion [1] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are attracting substantial investment, with gold alone seeing a net inflow of approximately $158 billion [4] Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metals are the primary beneficiaries of recent capital inflows, with a net inflow of about $36 billion in the week, and gold's price increased by approximately 8% [4] - The total value of open interest in the precious metals market surged by 16% week-over-week, amounting to $433 billion, making it the largest contributing sector [4] - The structural logic for gold remains clear, with analysts favoring gold over silver due to potential volatility in silver prices [5] Group 2: Energy and Natural Gas - The energy market's open interest value grew by 4.8% week-over-week, reaching $700 billion, driven by geopolitical factors and supply disruptions [8] - Despite a net outflow of about $2.5 billion in natural gas contracts, prices surged by approximately 70% due to severe cold weather in North America and Europe [8] - European natural gas inventory levels are historically low, contributing to rising prices amid increased heating demand [8] Group 3: Agricultural Products - The agricultural sector also saw increased investment, with open interest value rising by 2.4% to approximately $337 billion, driven by net inflows of $8.9 billion [11] - Price increases in grains, oilseeds, and livestock markets offset declines in soft commodities, indicating a robust interest in agricultural products [11] Group 4: Base Metals - The base metals market's open interest value increased by 2% week-over-week to $258.4 billion, although the sector experienced a net outflow of $400 million [15] - Despite inflows in copper and lead, overall outflows in other base metals led to a cautious outlook on copper prices due to rising inventory levels [15] - Investor positions in base metals are stabilizing, but some commodities are nearing "overheated" conditions, suggesting potential for a slowdown in buying momentum [15]

该系统的应用范围已超越传统自动化工具，开始涉及战略判断和时间管理等核心高管职能，为AI在企 业最高层的应用提供了实际案例。 AI系统整合全公司数据 周三，Coinbase首席执行官Brian Armstrong透露，他已部署一套内部AI系统充当公司"CEO"，该系统整 合所有Slack消息和Google文档，正在帮助他管理公司并提供战略建议。这一实践表明，人工智能取代 高管职能的前景可能比预期更快成为现实。 媒体此前持续报道人工智能将取代入门级工作，甚至取消一些中层管理职位。但Armstrong的做法显 示，AI取代首席执行官或部分高管职能的可能性正在加速到来。这套系统已从基础生产力工具演变为 战略顾问，在法务和财务等团队中广泛应用。 Armstrong在达沃斯接受"All-In"联合主持人Jason Calacanis采访时表示，他已从使用AI处理常规任务转 向更深层次的战略咨询，让AI主动提示他可能忽视的盲点。这种"反向提示"模式正在改变高管决策方 式。 从执行工具到战略顾问 Armstrong表示，他使用AI的方式已发生根本转变。"我现在不只是提示它'帮我写这份备忘录'之类 的，"他说，"作为CEO，我 ...

日本债券市场动荡正在演变为全球投资者的系统性风险，周三东京时间的40年期国债拍卖将成为关键考 验。 高市早苗本月提出的宽松财政政策引发日元和日债剧烈波动，40年期日债收益率上周一度突破4%的历 史高位，这一曾经难以想象的水平凸显投资者对日本债务可持续性的担忧。 日元兑美元汇率近期跌至接近160的水平，市场传言日本财务省可能已入场干预。本周日元反弹幅度高 达2%，但分析师警告单纯的货币干预效果有限。高盛首席外汇和新兴市场策略师Kamakshya Trivedi指 出，更成功的做法是日本央行加快加息步伐。 这场风波的影响正在外溢。日本是美国国债最大的外国主权投资者之一，持有2750亿美元机构抵押贷款 支持证券。如果日债收益率进一步上升，可能促使日本投资者将海外资金撤回国内，从而推高美国和欧 洲债券收益率，无论美联储是否继续降息。 Rosenberg Research创始人David Rosenberg周二早间表示，日元正接近潜在的破裂点，目前已测试154日 元附近的100日趋势线。 他强调："日本发生的事情不会仅停留在日本，全球债券市场和货币都在关注这场拉锯战。" 日元走势对多方利益产生直接影响。日元回升将使美国 ...

大宗商品的市场价格，开始系统性地包含一项新的组成部分——对供应安全的定价溢价。这意味着，即便价格看起来"偏贵"，也未必回到了过去那个可以轻 易回落的区间。 从"供给充裕"到"安全稀缺"：大宗商品定价逻辑的转变 过去几十年，大宗商品价格的核心假设是：只要价格足够高，供应总能在全球市场中被调配出来。但在区域化加速、国家安全优先的当下，这一前提正在失 效。 彭博宏观策略师Michael Ball指出，在一个以阵营划分、供应链被反复审视的世界里，关键金属已不再是普通周期品，而是战略资产。 更关键的是，当前大宗商品供给越来越受制于"物理资产负债表"——分离后的稀土、符合标准的电池化学品、变压器产能以及熟练冶金劳动力，都无法被资 本迅速复制。 Ball 认为，许多金属价格如果仍以过去"供应始终可得"的时代作为参照，确实显得被高估。但问题在于，这种参照本身已经不再适用。 在区域化和国家安全导向的世界中，大宗商品的清算价格，越来越多反映的是确保不断供的价值。这一溢价来自多个方面：采矿、加工和制造环节的结构性 瓶颈；关税和贸易政策；国家战略储备；以及企业层面"以防万一"的库存策略。 在这种背景下，关键金属的便利收益率（conv ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US dollar index has experienced a significant decline, dropping over 3% in the past six trading days, marking the largest six-day drop since April 2025. Goldman Sachs predicts that this depreciation is just beginning, with the dollar index potentially falling further to 92.75, a four-year low, in the coming months [1][2]. - Goldman Sachs' foreign exchange team highlights three main currencies—Yen, Renminbi, and Euro—that are moving in the direction of dollar depreciation. A key driver of this trend has been the New York Fed's inquiry into the dollar-to-yen exchange rate, signaling a stronger government involvement compared to previous years [1][2]. - The narrative of the "exceptionalism" of the US dollar is coming to an end, as various factors are aligning to prepare for the next round of declines. Reports of European pension funds reducing their exposure to US assets are increasing, contributing to the dollar index nearing a four-year low [3]. Group 2 - The US government's approach to the foreign exchange market is becoming more proactive, as indicated by the New York Fed's inquiry into the dollar-to-yen exchange rate, which reflects a heightened concern for exchange rate levels by the current administration [2]. - The weakening of the dollar is causing concerns about cross-asset correlations, which may lead investors to adjust their foreign exchange hedging ratios. Australian pension funds are currently at historical lows in their foreign exchange hedging ratios, prompting discussions about increasing these ratios [3].

"看着现在发生的一切，就像在看一部我在历史上看过很多次的电影。" 瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）用这句令人不寒而栗的开场白，以全球宏观投资者的视角宣告：美国已站在系 统性风险的悬崖边缘，正从"财务状况恶化"的第五阶段，跨入"内战与革命"的第六阶段。 2026年1月27日，随着美国明尼阿波利斯局势的急剧恶化，全球最大对冲基金桥水基金创始人达利欧发 表一篇长文《货币、内战与国际战争、明尼阿波利斯及更多——透视当下》。他不再含蓄，而是指出美 国正在他所定义的"债务大周期"中，逼近最危险的临界点。 达利欧所说的"债务周期"，并不仅仅指经济衰退或金融危机，而是一个通常持续数十年的"大周期"。在 这一周期中，债务累积、财富集中、政治博弈和社会情绪相互强化，经济周期的终局往往伴随着社会秩 序的剧烈重塑。 第五阶段的特征：有毒组合与规则崩塌 "对于《原则：应对变化中的世界秩序》一书的读者来说，现在应该很清楚，我们正处于大周期中从第 五阶段（现有秩序崩溃前）到第六阶段（现有秩序崩溃）的边缘。" 在第五阶段，宏观经济表面仍在运转，但内部张力已经显著上升：财政赤字失控、政府债务高企、贫富 差距扩大、政治极化加剧。这就是达利欧描述 ...

受到光通信鼻祖、老牌玻璃制造商康宁斩获Meta大单，再加上存储芯片涨价等因素影响，A股CPO、存储器等算力硬件股大幅拉 升。在美元跌至四年低位，以及地缘政治紧张局势持续之际，国际金价再度飙升，A股贵金属板块持续爆发。 1月28日，A股早盘走势分化，沪指小幅上涨，深成指、创业板指高开低走，纷纷转跌。CPO、存储器、芯片半导体等算力硬件股 拉升。贵金属板块持续爆发。 商品：国内商品期货涨跌不一，截至发稿，集运指数涨近5%，沥青、沪金涨超2%，燃油、氧化铝、沪银、沪铝、沪锡 涨超1%，橡胶、豆粕、菜籽、烧碱等小幅上涨。锰硅、纸浆、铂金、热轧卷板、螺纹钢、工业硅、玻璃、铁矿石、鸡 蛋、沪铜、多晶硅等下跌，焦煤、焦炭、钯金、不锈钢等跌超1%，碳酸锂、沪镍跌超2%。 港股走势较强，恒指早盘涨超1%，创下2021年以来新高，恒科指震荡上涨，科网股多数反弹，半导体、有色金属等板块活跃。 债市方面，国债期货震荡上涨，商品方面，国内商品期货分化，沪金涨超2%，碳酸锂跌超2%。核心市场走势： | 什么样 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Core Insights - The consumer survey conducted by Citi Research indicates that Pop Mart's user growth, repurchase loyalty, and IP appeal remain resilient despite market concerns about declining demand and secondary market price fluctuations [1][3]. Group 1: User Demographics and Behavior - 76% of respondents purchased Pop Mart products for the first time within the past year, with 45% being new customers in the last three months, particularly evident in markets like China and Japan [2]. - The survey shows that 34% of respondents buy Pop Mart products monthly, and 29% do so every three months, with 87% indicating they are likely to continue purchasing in the next three months [6][9]. - The average spending per respondent is highest in Australia at approximately $132, followed by China at $130, the US at $110, the UK at $108, and Japan at $95 [18]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Purchasing Channels - Only 9% of respondents have purchased Pop Mart products through secondary markets, with the figure being just 2% in China and 15% in the US, indicating that official channels dominate consumption [10][13]. - The survey highlights that the "blind box" mechanism is crucial, with 80% of respondents valuing the element of surprise in their purchasing experience [19]. Group 3: IP Appeal and Product Preferences - LABUBU remains the most attractive core IP, with 47% of respondents owning LABUBU products, while other IPs like Twinkle Twinkle and Skullpanda show higher appeal in overseas markets than previously expected [14][17]. - The survey indicates that 93% of respondents plan to continue purchasing Pop Mart products, with 26% intending to increase their purchase frequency, driven by new series launches and limited editions [6][14]. Group 4: Consumer Satisfaction and Future Intentions - The demographic profile shows that 41% of Pop Mart users are aged 18-34, with a balanced gender distribution [20]. - High satisfaction levels are reported, with 54% of respondents being "very satisfied" and only 7% indicating they would not purchase again, supporting the brand's long-term loyalty [20].

在贵金属市场一片沸腾之际，花旗将对白银的短期判断直接"拉满"。 据追风交易台，1月27日，花旗研究在最新发布的《MetalMatters》报告中，将未来0–3个月白银目标价 从100美元/盎司大幅上调至150美元/盎司。在此之前，这一100美元目标仅在两周前刚刚给出，而当前 银价已快速突破110美元关口。 花旗直言，在当前阶段，白银的表现已不再是"跟随黄金"，而更像是"打了兴奋剂的黄金 （goldonsteroids）"。 从"贵金属"到"资本配置资产"，白银正在复制黄金的定价逻辑 花旗认为，当前这轮白银行情的核心驱动力，并非传统意义上的工业需求或供给收缩，而是资本配置逻 辑的全面激活。 与黄金类似，白银正在被全球资金视为一种：对冲宏观不确定性的资产、对冲地缘政治风险的工具、 对"美联储独立性受损"风险的定价载体。 但与黄金不同的是，白银具备更高的弹性与更强的价格加速度。 过去两周，金价上涨约10%，而白银涨幅超过30%。花旗形象地将其描述为：白银不是黄金的"影子"， 而是黄金的"平方项"。 本轮白银牛市的"发动机"：中国主导、印度跟买 花旗明确指出，本轮自12月以来、白银价格"翻倍式上涨"的行情，呈现出高度 ...