风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 数据显示，周四外国投资者净卖出价值4.99万亿韩元（34亿美元）的韩国首尔综指成分股，创纪录最 高。机构投资者也净卖出2.07万亿韩元的韩国首尔综指成分股。韩国首尔综指收盘下跌3.9%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street's attitude towards OpenAI is experiencing a dramatic reversal, with previously favored OpenAI-related stocks facing sell-offs, while Alphabet, Google's parent company, emerges as a major winner with a stock price increase of approximately 36% since last October [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment Shift - Analysts indicate a narrative shift favoring Google over OpenAI, with concerns about OpenAI's financial sustainability leading to a decline in stock prices for companies like Oracle and Microsoft, which are closely tied to OpenAI [2][5]. - Oracle's stock has plummeted about 49% since last October, heavily reliant on its contracts with OpenAI, while Microsoft's stock has dropped over 20% during the same period [2]. - The market's preference for Alphabet is evident, as software companies associated with OpenAI are seeing diminished investor appeal [7]. Group 2: Alphabet's Financial Performance - Alphabet has gained Wall Street's confidence through robust financial returns from its AI investments, marking a turnaround from being perceived as lagging in the AI race [8]. - CEO Sundar Pichai reported that Google Gemini applications have surpassed 750 million monthly active users, up from 650 million in the previous quarter, indicating significant user engagement [8]. - Google Cloud revenue surged by 48% in the December quarter, exceeding Wall Street expectations, contributing to Alphabet's strong financial outlook [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Tech Sector Analysis - Deutsche Bank's report highlights a "cleansing" phase in the AI investment frenzy, suggesting that the S&P 500's performance is largely supported by Alphabet alone [4][10]. - The report notes a decisive shift in market sentiment from a belief that all tech stocks are winners to a more brutal reality of clear winners and losers [10]. - Alphabet's stock has increased nearly 25% in the past three months and 75% over the last six months, translating to approximately $1.7 trillion in market value growth [10][11].

谷歌母公司Alphabet第四季度业绩强劲，云业务和搜索广告双双加速增长，证明其在人工智能领域的大 规模投资正在开花结果。 Alphabet表示将在今年将资本支出翻倍至1750亿至1850亿美元，以建设更多计算能力。这一支出规模已 超过其业务在2025年产生的1647亿美元现金。公司已经增加了债务，按照这一速度，未来将不得不借入 更多资金。公司已经削减了股票回购支出。 谷歌云业务的表现证明其已成为一项真正的业务。基于第四季度营收，该业务年化收入达710亿美元， 这对一个2021年营收不足200亿美元的业务而言是非凡成就。作为对比，行业领导者亚马逊云服务AWS 截至第三季度的年化收入为1320亿美元。 30%的运营利润率虽然仍低于规模更大的竞争对手，但谷歌云终于证明自己是一项可持续的业务。科技 行业中能够同时在消费者和企业市场取得成功的公司并不多，亚马逊是少数几家之一，而谷歌看起来将 成为另一家。 此外，搜索业务的增长应该能够平息投资者一两年前的担忧，即AI聊天机器人会削弱谷歌的搜索业 务。首席商务官Philipp Schindler在分析师电话会议上表示，AI正在帮助谷歌提高广告效果，并使其能 够在比过去更复 ...

Core Insights - Sony Group has reported strong profit growth despite rising memory chip costs, driven by favorable exchange rates and a diversified business portfolio, while facing supply chain cost challenges in its core gaming hardware business [1][4]. Financial Performance - For the December quarter, Sony's operating profit surged 22% year-on-year to 515 billion yen, exceeding market expectations of 468.9 billion yen. Revenue reached 3.71 trillion yen (approximately 23.68 billion USD), slightly above the forecast of 3.69 trillion yen, marking a 1% year-on-year increase [1]. - Following the earnings report, Sony raised its full-year operating profit forecast to 1.54 trillion yen, an increase of 110 billion yen or 8% from previous estimates. The annual revenue forecast was also raised by 300 billion yen to 12.3 trillion yen, a 3% increase, while maintaining the estimated loss from U.S. tariffs at 50 billion yen [1]. Gaming Business Challenges - The gaming and network services segment reported sales of 1.613 trillion yen, a decrease of 68.7 billion yen year-on-year. This segment, which includes the popular PlayStation console brand, is Sony's largest revenue driver [4]. - Despite benefiting from the transition to digital game purchases and growth in PlayStation Plus subscriptions, hardware shipment growth remains sluggish, with expectations of rising component costs impacting the hardware business this year [4]. Cost Risks from DRAM Prices - The PlayStation console relies on dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips, which are currently in short supply due to surging demand from AI and data center operators. According to TrendForce, traditional DRAM contract prices are expected to rise by 90% to 95% this quarter compared to the previous three months [6]. - A leading semiconductor CEO indicated that the memory chip shortage is expected to persist until 2027, adding further cost pressures for Sony [6]. Other Business Segments - Strong performance in the music and imaging segments partially offset the pressures in the gaming business. Sony's music segment saw a 12.6% year-on-year revenue increase, driven by live events, merchandise sales, and streaming services [6]. - The imaging and sensing solutions segment experienced over 20% revenue growth, focusing on the development and manufacturing of semiconductor-based imaging and sensing technologies [6].

误读"鹰派"：沃什的真实意图是为降息铺路 研报指出，市场看到沃什提名后的第一反应是紧缩恐慌，但这忽略了他政策主张的完整性。沃什虽然强调美联储必须缩减其臃肿的7万亿美元资产负债 表，但这并不是为了扼杀经济。 市场再一次对美联储的动作做出了膝跳反射式的误读。2026年1月30日，特朗普正式提名凯文・沃什为下任美联储主席。华尔街的第一反应是恐慌：美 元飙升，美股下挫，贵金属遭遇抛售。原因很简单，市场给沃什贴上了"鹰派"的标签。 2月4日，申银万国在研报中分析称，市场正在犯下过快定价的错误。沃什并非传统的鹰派，他的核心政策主张是"缩表+降息"的混合体——通过缩减资 产负债表来抑制长期通胀预期，从而为大幅降息打开空间。对于投资者而言，这意味着短期内的流动性恐慌可能是错杀。在2026年中期选举的政治压力 和美国财政利息支出的沉重负担下，降息大概率会先于缩表落地。投资者不应被短期波动吓退，而应关注美股风格切换（大盘向小盘）、贵金属波动率 回归后的入场机会，以及原油价格由于地缘政治可能带来的二次通胀风险。 相反，沃什认为当前的高利率没有考虑到AI带来的生产力提升。他的逻辑闭环是：只有通过缩表消除了"美联储看跌期权"和长期通胀 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong demand for Japan's 30-year government bonds in the recent auction alleviated short-term concerns about long-term debt, leading to a decline in yields ahead of the upcoming elections [1][3]. Group 1: Auction Results - The bid-to-cover ratio for the 30-year bonds reached 3.64, significantly higher than the previous auction's 3.14 and above the 12-month average of 3.35, indicating increased investor interest [4]. - The yield on the 30-year bonds fell by 5 basis points to 3.585%, while the 10-year bond yield decreased by 1.5 basis points to 2.23%, reflecting a positive market sentiment [1][4]. - Over 23% of the bonds were purchased by two large domestic companies, which is expected to support stable trading in the secondary market [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Political Context - Despite concerns over rising fiscal spending, the auction results suggest that higher yield levels are attracting buyers, indicating a potential increase in demand as political uncertainties diminish [3][4]. - The upcoming House of Representatives election on February 8 will determine future fiscal spending, adding complexity to the current market environment [5]. Group 3: Currency and Monetary Policy Considerations - The depreciation of the yen has become a focal point, with hedge funds resuming short positions ahead of the elections, indicating concerns over currency volatility [6]. - Investors are closely monitoring how the election results may influence the Bank of Japan's interest rate path, as Prime Minister Kishi Sanae is known for advocating monetary easing [7].

2026年的春节年货大战正酣，直播电商的战火也正热烈，但这次的硝烟不在叫卖声震天的抖快直播间， 而是在以"慢"著称的小红书。 近日，久未露面的女演员薛佳凝在小红书开启了一场以"文玩珠宝"为主题的直播。没有激昂的"321上链 接"，也没有助播声嘶力竭的倒计时，在这场充满禅意与静气的直播中，单场销售额悄然突破1亿元大 关。 从流量到审美 复盘薛佳凝与吴千语的破亿战报，我们会发现一个有趣的共性：她们都不是传统意义上的"顶流鲜肉"， 但都拥有极具辨识度的生活方式标签。 在传统电商逻辑里，GMV=流量×转化率。但在小红书，这个公式变成了GMV=审美×信任×高客单价。 薛佳凝的这场直播，核心客单价高达7500元，售卖的是非标品的文玩珠宝。这类商品在抖快平台极难起 量，因为缺乏瞬间的视觉冲击力和价格诱惑。 但薛佳凝多年来"带发修行""淡然处世"的公众形象，恰好为这些高客单文玩提供了最强的信用背书。用 户买的不仅仅是珠串，更是对她那种"不争不抢"生活状态的向往。 同样，吴千语的1.5亿神话，建立在她作为"顶级名媛风向标"的人设之上。她在直播间布置成自家客 厅，像闺蜜一样分享松弛感穿搭和家居好物。这种"老钱风"的选品逻辑，精准 ...

Core Viewpoint - Coherent reported strong financial results for Q2 FY2026, with adjusted EPS of $1.29 and revenue of $1.69 billion, driven by significant demand from AI data centers, although the stock fell 2% post-announcement due to profit-taking pressures [3][11][52]. Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS of $1.29 exceeded market expectations of $1.22, marking a 35% year-over-year increase [11][52]. - Revenue reached $1.69 billion, surpassing expectations and setting a quarterly record, with a year-over-year growth of 22% [11][52]. - Non-GAAP gross margin improved to 39%, reflecting operational efficiencies and cost reductions [52][53]. Demand and Orders - The company experienced a "step-function increase" in orders, particularly in the data center sector, with a book-to-bill ratio exceeding 4 [11][41]. - Demand for 1.6T transceivers is accelerating, with expectations for significant growth in both 800G and 1.6T products throughout 2026 [22][62]. - Most of the 2026 calendar year capacity has been booked, with orders extending into 2027 and even 2028 for some major clients [15][61]. Production and Capacity Expansion - Coherent achieved breakthroughs in 6-inch indium phosphide (InP) production, increasing wafer output by over four times and reducing costs by approximately 50% [6][26]. - The company plans to double its internal InP capacity by the end of this year, with current wafer starts reaching 80% of the target [23][58]. - The strategic shift to 6-inch wafers is expected to enhance supply capabilities and pricing power in the market [27][75]. Product Development and Market Opportunities - Coherent secured a significant CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) order from a leading AI data center client, indicating a shift from concept to substantial deployment [28][45]. - The OCS (Optical Circuit Switching) platform has gained traction, with over 10 clients and a growing backlog, suggesting a market opportunity exceeding $2 billion [32][46]. - The transition from 800G to 1.6T in AI data centers is expected to drive demand for high-bandwidth, low-power interconnect solutions [21][18]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued strong revenue growth in the upcoming quarters, driven by robust demand and capacity expansion [36][49]. - Guidance for Q3 FY2026 projects revenue between $1.7 billion and $1.84 billion, with non-GAAP gross margins expected to range from 38.5% to 40.5% [15][60].

日经225指数小幅下跌0.73%至53898.35点，但涵盖范围更广的Topix指数上涨0.23%，创下历史新高，成为亚太地区唯一收涨的主要指数。 软银集团盘中大跌下挫6.39%，因旗下芯片设计公司Arm第三财季授权销售未达预期。 比特币在科技股抛售潮中同步走弱，下跌超过3%，盘中一度跌破73000美元关口后进一步下跌。 周四，亚太市场普遍下跌，延续华尔街科技股抛售势头，芯片股成为重灾区。韩国Kospi指数领跌主要市场，三星电子和SK海力士均跌超 4%。贵金属跳水，现货白银日内跌超15%。 隔夜，美国芯片制造商AMD第一季度业绩预测未达部分分析师预期，股价暴跌17%，引发亚洲科技股连锁反应。Broadcom和Micron Technology分别下跌3.8%和9.5%。 AT Global Markets首席市场分析师Nick Twidale分析表示，亚洲市场正受到华尔街隔夜抛售的冲击，不确定是否可以说科技股已经见顶，但市 场还有进一步回调的空间，这是传统的"抛售科技股、转向防御性板块"的操作。 韩国市场承压最重，Kospi指数跌3.68%。三星电子和SK海力士分别下跌4.14%和4%。 持续更新中 国内市场 ...

2026年刚刚过去一个多月，美股却已经反复上演同一种情景：盘中急跌、情绪失控、但收盘前迅速修 复，甚至重返高位。 据追风交易台，德意志银行在最新报告中指出，仅1月以来，标普500指数已经出现至少5次"快速下挫— 迅速反弹"的典型案例。 这些波动往往伴随着地缘政治、关税威胁、科技股恐慌或AI竞争叙事，但几乎都未对大盘造成实质 性、持续性的破坏。 在德银看来，这并非偶然，而可能是当前美股正在形成的一种"新常态"。 五次"假摔"：风险事件频发，但市场拒绝深跌 德银宏观策略师Henry Allen梳理了2026年初以来几次具有代表性的快速回撤： 1月中旬地缘政治风险升温：标普500在1月12日创出新高后，因市场担忧美国可能介入 伊朗局势、叠加有关格陵兰岛的政治表态，指数盘中一度下跌逾1%。但恐慌迅速消 散，当日跌幅明显收窄，随后两天再度反弹。 1月下旬关税威胁引发抛售：美国提出对部分欧洲国家征收关税的可能性，导致标普 500单日大跌逾2%。然而，随着谈判框架浮现，指数在接下来两个交易日连续反弹， 几乎完全修复跌幅。 1月底科技股Capex担忧：微软财报显示资本开支高于预期，引发市场对AI投资回报周 期的担忧，软件板块 ...