作为石油输出国组织（OPEC）重要成员及全球关键化工原料供应方，伊朗局势的变动牵动着原油、甲 醇等能化品种的市场神经。短期地缘溢价与中长期供需基本面的博弈，成为当前能化市场最鲜明的运行 特征。 彭海波认为，2026年一季度甲醇市场将呈现供需双弱格局。一方面，伊朗供应处于低位及潜在地缘风险 为价格提供支撑；另一方面，沿海MTO装置生产利润低迷压制需求，港口去库存压力较大。在此背景 下，预计甲醇价格整体维持宽幅震荡走势。 从全球视角来看，伊朗局势对能化市场的影响呈现显著区域分化。亚洲作为伊朗能化产品的主要进口区 域，受到的冲击最为直接。2025年1—11月，中国月均自中东进口甲醇80万吨，占国内贸易量的25%～ 30%，且当前港口库存处于往年同期低位，若伊朗供应中断，中国、印度等国将被迫调整进口结构，转 向沙特、俄罗斯等国寻找替代资源，替代成本的上升可能进一步传导至下游炼化产业链。 "伊朗局势可能引发贸易流重新定向、产能多元化等结构性变化。"赵若晨表示，整体而言，全球能化供 应链正加速重构，而伊朗紧张局势的持续时间、对能源运输通道的影响程度，将成为决定这场重构深度 与广度的关键变量。 展望后市，业内人士普遍认为， ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic policies aimed at strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand, while also focusing on the development of the real economy and the construction of a unified national market [1][2][5]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policies - The NDRC plans to formulate a strategic implementation plan for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, aligning with the trends of demand upgrades and technological revolutions [1]. - The focus will be on enhancing the quality of key industries and fostering emerging and future industries, particularly through initiatives like "Artificial Intelligence+" [1]. - The NDRC aims to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, with a key goal of promoting reasonable price recovery [2]. Group 2: Market Regulation and Competition - The NDRC intends to address "involution" competition by shifting from price competition to value competition, improving market access, and enhancing fair competition mechanisms [2]. - There will be a focus on regulating key industry prices and ensuring a healthy market order through the implementation of quality brand strategies [2]. - The NDRC plans to establish a national unified market construction regulation to standardize behaviors of local governments and enterprises [3]. Group 3: Energy Transition and Carbon Neutrality - The NDRC emphasizes the acceleration of energy transition by increasing the development of non-fossil energy and enhancing the capacity of the power grid [4]. - There will be a strong push for industrial upgrades towards green and low-carbon industries, including the promotion of zero-carbon parks and factories [4]. - The NDRC will implement comprehensive resource management and promote a circular economy to support carbon peak and neutrality goals [4]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The NDRC forecasts a continuous improvement in economic structure and development momentum, with significant potential in consumption, investment, technology, and regional development [5]. - The focus will be on combining policy support with reform and innovation to transform development potential into new economic growth [5].

谈及近期国际油价走高的主要原因，银河期货高级研究员赵若晨表示，此前中东地区局势紧张，伊朗作 为主要产油国，其设施遇袭引发更直接的供应担忧。同时，霍尔木兹海峡的航运安全一直是市场紧张的 焦点。此外，美联储降息预期升温导致美元走弱，也对以美元计价的原油价格构成支撑。 孟鹏预计，后期地缘风险依旧存在诸多不确定性，将持续对国际原油形成扰动，但宏观压力与产业过剩 压制油价上行动能，油市多空博弈加剧，预计国际油价难走出单边行情，将保持宽幅波动走势。 国内成品油迎来2026年第一次涨价，结束了2025年年末的"三连降"走势。据国家发展改革委最新消息， 自1月20日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格（标准品，下同）每吨均上调85元。折合升价后，92#汽油、95# 汽油及0#柴油每升均上调0.07元。 在上一计价周期（1月6日24时至1月20日24时）内，国际原油价格一度上涨，其波动逐步传导至国内成 品油市场，从而促成本次调价落地。卓创资讯成品油分析师孟鹏告诉期货日报记者，上一计价周期内中 东、南美地缘局势紧张引发供应担忧，推动国际原油价格连续5日上涨，累计涨幅逾10%。但后期随着 地缘风险降温，市场焦点转向供应端，油价随之明显回落， ...

Core Insights - The extreme weather conditions, including significant snowfall and temperature drops, have raised concerns about the supply and prices of essential goods such as grains, oils, meat, and eggs. However, the market is expected to remain stable due to sufficient material reserves and effective supply mechanisms [1][2]. Group 1: Market Supply and Stability - The national grain, oil, meat, and egg market is well-supplied, and prices are expected to remain stable due to strong production capabilities and ample inventory [1]. - China's grain production has consistently exceeded 1.4 trillion jin (approximately 700 million tons) for two consecutive years, with projections to reach 1.42975 trillion jin (approximately 714.875 million tons) by 2025 [1]. - The production of pork, beef, mutton, and poultry is projected to exceed 100 million tons, with an expected increase of 4.09 million tons in 2025 compared to 2024, marking a historical high in pork production [1]. Group 2: Local Response and Preparedness - Local agencies and residents have proactively implemented measures to address the impacts of severe weather, ensuring the smooth transportation of essential goods [2]. - The rapid dissemination of market information allows for effective coordination among transportation and agricultural sectors, ensuring that fresh agricultural products can be transported efficiently [2]. - Residents have increased their stockpiling of essential goods, such as grains and meats, to maintain stability in daily life during adverse weather conditions [2].

本报讯 中期协网站公布的2026年1月20日期货公司高管人员专业能力水平评价测试合格人员名单显示， 共有25人通过本次测试，包括董事层11人、经营层12人、首席风险官2人。根据《期货公司高管人员专 业能力水平评价测试须知》有关规定，本次测试合格有效期为2026年1月20日—2028年1月19日。（齐 宣） ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shaanxi Agricultural Development Supply Chain Management Group, emphasizes the importance of futures and derivatives in managing risks and optimizing operations in the volatile agricultural commodity market, particularly corn, which has seen significant price fluctuations. Group 1: Company Performance and Strategy - The company reported a potential loss of 1.6 billion yuan due to a drop in corn prices, highlighting the critical role of derivatives in mitigating such risks [1] - Over the past three years, despite a downward trend in agricultural prices, the company has achieved a net profit of 150-200 yuan per ton in corn trading through a futures-spot combination model [2][3] - The company has expanded its operational scale, achieving a total operational volume of 6.1973 million tons in 2024, a 67% increase from 2023 [7] Group 2: Risk Management and Operational Efficiency - The company employs a dual-track operational model with a clear separation of rights and responsibilities, enhancing decision-making speed and market responsiveness [6][8] - A comprehensive risk control system has been established, incorporating institutional constraints, technical monitoring, and position checks to ensure compliance and mitigate risks [9] - The company has developed a real-time monitoring system for futures and spot inventory, allowing for quick adjustments to trading strategies in response to market changes [9] Group 3: Industry Impact and Community Engagement - The company aims to share its successful risk management and operational strategies with other enterprises in the agricultural sector, enhancing the overall industry ecosystem [10][11] - Training programs have been conducted across multiple provinces, benefiting over 400 enterprises and 1500 individuals, promoting the adoption of risk management practices [11] - The company has extended its risk management tools to farmers, providing insurance and options to hedge against price fluctuations, thereby improving their financial stability [11]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Futures Company Asset Management Business Filing Management Rules" has led to a significant transformation in the futures industry, shifting from a reliance on channel business to a focus on high-quality, actively managed asset management that leverages the unique characteristics of futures and derivatives [1] Group 1: Industry Transformation - The futures asset management business is undergoing a profound change characterized by "quality improvement and quantity reduction," moving away from extensive channel-based development towards a model centered on active management [2][3] - As of the end of 2025, the number of existing futures asset management institutions is expected to decrease to 91, down from 110 at the beginning of the previous year, indicating a trend of license clearance and industry consolidation [2] - The shift towards higher entry barriers and reduced channel business scale is seen as beneficial for promoting professional and differentiated development within the industry [2][3] Group 2: Focus on Active Management - The industry is collectively moving towards active management, abandoning reliance on channel business, which is viewed as regulatory arbitrage [3] - Current transformations in futures asset management are primarily focused on areas such as Fund of Funds (FOF), Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA), macro hedging, multi-strategy arbitrage, and fixed income plus [3] - Companies like Jin Xin Futures and Zhe Shang Futures are developing distinctive product lines that cater to various risk-return preferences and investment strategies, emphasizing active management and the unique advantages of futures and derivatives [3][4] Group 3: Structural Adjustments and Competitive Focus - The asset management scale and competitive landscape in the industry are expected to undergo structural adjustments due to the ongoing removal of channel business and increased operational thresholds [5][6] - Active management product scales are anticipated to grow against the trend of overall asset management scale decline, with funds concentrating on high-performing managers [5] - The future will see a clearer differentiation in competition, with resources increasingly flowing towards leading and specialized institutions [6][7] Group 4: Future Directions - Institutions are encouraged to deepen their focus on commodity and derivative strategies, moving away from homogeneous competition to establish differentiated advantages [6][7] - The development of a core competitive edge through an integrated approach of research, risk control, and technology is deemed essential for future success in the futures asset management sector [7]

1月20日，中共上海市委金融委员会办公室、中国人民银行上海总部、国家金融监督管理总局上海监管 局、中国证券监督管理委员会上海监管局、上海市商务委员会联合印发《加强期现联动提升有色金属大 宗商品能级行动方案》（下称《方案》）。 全仓登相关负责人表示，目前已上线数字仓单登记系统，实现对铜、铝、铅、锌、锡、镍等基本有色金 属品种的现货仓单登记，同时已与商业银行合作落地仓单质押登记业务，并正在与上海清算所合作推进 仓单转让登记服务，持续拓展金融与贸易服务场景，旨在构建规范、可信的大宗商品仓单生态体系，助 力提升我国有色金属市场能级与产业链供应链协同发展。 从期货公司角度来看，混沌天成期货研究院院长李学智表示，《方案》为期货公司锚定了清晰的发展航 向，既能通过期—现—衍联动发展、新兴金属品种及指数衍生品研发，拓宽服务企业客户的深度与广 度，还能借助跨境交割、境外企业参与等制度开放，打开国际化业务的增量空间。此外，依靠区块链、 供应链金融等数字化基建赋能，期货公司可实现产品创新、客户拓展与全球化布局的协同推进，进而提 升自身的核心竞争力与市场影响力。 三是集聚市场主体，培育良好有色金属市场生态圈。培育具有综合竞争力的贸易 ...

廖岷表示，2026年，财政部门将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，概括起来就是"总量增加、结构更优、 效益更好、动能更强"。2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持必要水平，确保总体支出力 度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"。 本报讯（记者 肖佳煊） 1月20日，财政部等部门出台一揽子政策，分别从加力提振消费、扩大民间投资 两个方面，推动扩大有效需求。同日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，财政部副部长廖岷、综合司 司长李先忠、金融司司长于红介绍发挥积极财政政策作用，推动经济社会高质量发展有关情况，并答记 者问。 关于出口退税，李先忠表示，出口退税是一项重要的税收制度安排。长期以来，中国对大多数产品实行 出口退税政策，并结合经济社会发展需要适时进行调整。近期，财政部会同国家税务总局发布公告，明 确自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏、磷化工等产品的出口退税，并分两年取消电池产品出口退税。这是在 2024年12月下调光伏、电池等产品出口退税率的基础上，结合我国实际情况进一步作出的政策调整。当 前，中国的经济社会已经进入加快绿色化、低碳化的高质量发展阶段，此次出口退税政策的调整，有利 于促进资源的高效利用，减少环 ...

Group 1 - The main inflows in commodity futures yesterday were in gold, PTA, coking coal, palm oil, and copper, with inflows of 18.432 billion, 0.516 billion, 0.302 billion, 0.275 billion, and 0.249 billion respectively [1] - The main outflows were in lithium carbonate, iron ore, live pigs, rubber, and styrene, with outflows of 2.755 billion, 0.665 billion, 0.399 billion, 0.260 billion, and 0.208 billion respectively [1] - Overall, the commodity futures market experienced significant inflows due to the main contract rollover, with a notable focus on non-ferrous metals, particularly gold, copper, and silver, while observing outflows in lithium carbonate and tin [1] Group 2 - The agricultural, chemical, and black metal sectors showed outflows, with particular attention to the inflows in iron ore, live pigs, and rubber, while PTA, coking coal, palm oil, and ethylene glycol saw significant outflows [1] - The financial sector highlighted the focus on the CSI 500 index futures and 10-year treasury futures [1]