近期，黄金与白银价格在短暂调整后重拾强势，特别是周四白银表现亮眼：沪银价格创下上市新高，外 盘银价也一度逼近前期高点。期货日报记者了解到，这是宏观经济预期与品种自身基本面因素共振的结 果。 据金瑞期货研究所贵金属研究员吴梓杰介绍，贵金属强势上行最核心的驱动力，源于市场对美联储货币 政策即将转向的强烈预期。近期披露的一些非官方经济数据，例如降温的劳动力市场和持续疲软的消费 者信心指数，被市场普遍解读为美国经济活力放缓的明确信号，这极大地强化了投资者对美联储将在不 久后降息以应对潜在衰退风险的判断。 吴梓杰表示，在此背景下，美国政府"停摆"的终结成为了一个关键的催化剂，其利好效应体现在多个层 面：首先，政府恢复正常运作后，积压的官方经济数据（尤其是就业数据）将得以发布，市场普遍预期 这些数据会进一步证实经济走弱的趋势，从而为美联储在12月降息提供更坚实的数据支持；其次，政府 重新"开门"意味着财政支出有望重回扩张轨道，并且可能伴随着财政部一般账户（TGA）流动性的重新 释放，这将共同为市场注入更多流动性；最后，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克即将退休的消息，也被市场 解读为美联储内部可能进一步"转鸽"的信号，进一步巩固了 ...

而根据路透社12日公布的最新调查结果，80%的经济分析师预计美联储12月将再次降息25个基点，这一 比例较上月略有上升。 围绕降息与经济，美联储高官也接连表态。 明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，数据表明，自10月会议以来情况基本保持不变。目前尚未明确决 定在12月降息。 早上好！先来看隔夜市场概况。 11月13日纽约尾盘，现货黄金跌0.54%，报4172.84美元/盎司，北京时间11月13日20:59刷新日高至 4245.23美元/盎司，北京时间11月14日02:23出现一波短线跳水——从4200美元/盎司关口跌至4145.55美 元/盎司。COMEX黄金期货跌0.96%，报4173.00美元/盎司。 截至今晨收盘，美股三大股指普跌，道指跌1.65%，纳指跌2.29%，标普跌1.65%。英伟达跌超3%，谷 歌跌超2%，特斯拉跌超6%，甲骨文跌超4%。热门中概股收盘普跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.59%。 消息面上， 据新华社报道，国际货币基金组织（IMF）发言人朱莉·科扎克13日表示，美国联邦政府"停 摆"将对经济产生负面影响，预计今年四季度美国经济增速将低于此前预测的1.9%。 美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特表示 ...

Market Overview - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, with spot gold closing at $4172.84 per ounce, down 0.54%, after reaching a high of $4245.23 earlier in the day [1] - The U.S. stock market saw declines across major indices, with the Dow Jones down 1.65% and the Nasdaq down 2.29%, reflecting a negative sentiment in the market [1] Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicated that the U.S. government shutdown would negatively impact the economy, predicting a lower GDP growth rate for Q4 than the previously forecasted 1.9% [1] - The White House's economic advisor projected a 1.5 percentage point decrease in GDP growth due to the shutdown, highlighting the potential for interest rate cuts [1][2] Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December are mixed, with probabilities slightly below 50% according to various derivatives [2] - A significant majority of economists (80%) anticipate a rate cut in December, reflecting a growing consensus on the need for monetary easing [2] Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Federal Reserve officials have expressed caution regarding interest rate decisions, with some indicating the need for continued tightening to combat inflation [3][4] - The potential lack of key economic data due to the government shutdown could hinder the Fed's decision-making process [5][7] Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Recent trends show a resurgence in gold and silver prices, driven by expectations of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [8] - The end of the government shutdown is seen as a catalyst for the release of delayed economic data, which may support the case for a rate cut [9] Silver Market Fundamentals - Silver prices are supported by a tight supply-demand dynamic, with decreasing inventories reported on major exchanges [10] - The industrial demand for silver, particularly in renewable energy sectors, is expected to drive long-term price increases [14] Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks have accelerated gold purchases, with net buying totaling 220 tons in Q3, reflecting a strategic diversification of reserves [12][13] - This trend indicates a shift towards gold as a stable asset amid fluctuating economic conditions, reinforcing its role as a long-term value reserve [14] Geopolitical and Economic Considerations - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures are increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [15] - The resolution of the government shutdown is expected to restore the release of critical economic data, influencing future monetary policy decisions [15]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in the prices of pure benzene and styrene futures, both rising over 2%, has sparked market interest, raising questions about whether this is a short-term recovery or a signal of a trend reversal, especially given the backdrop of declining oil prices and unchanged fundamentals [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The rebound in "two benzene" prices is attributed to a mismatch in supply and demand, with pure benzene operating at over 80% capacity while downstream utilization has dropped to 69.39%, indicating a weak demand environment [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the rebound is driven by short-term factors, including a reduction in short positions and a temporary supply contraction due to high maintenance levels in styrene production, alongside a low inventory situation post-holiday [2][3]. Cost Factors - The cost support for "two benzene" prices is expected to weaken, as the previous rise in oil prices was largely due to geopolitical risks, and the global economic recovery remains sluggish, limiting oil demand growth [3][4]. - The expectation of increased supply from new refining capacities and imports in the coming months suggests that the long-term supply pressure on pure benzene will persist, despite short-term reductions in production [3][4]. Market Sentiment - Market participants are currently optimistic due to low inventory levels and a potential seasonal increase in styrene production in December, which may support pure benzene demand [4]. - However, the overall sentiment remains cautious, with analysts indicating that the current price rebound does not signify a sustainable change in the supply-demand dynamics, which continue to favor a weak market [5].

Core Insights - The event, the 8th Voice and Color Industry Chain Salon, focuses on the non-ferrous metal market and aims to provide insights and strategies for navigating uncertainties in the industry [1][2] - The salon features closed-door forums with industry elites to facilitate in-depth discussions on critical issues within the non-ferrous metal sector [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The salon adopts a closed-door format, inviting key industry players and experts for focused discussions on industry pain points [1] - The event emphasizes the importance of deep thinking and precise connections in overcoming market challenges [1] Group 2: Key Topics and Speakers - Topic 1: Derivatives Breakthrough - Reshaping Risk Management in the Copper Industry - Speaker: Zhang Jiefu, Chief Analyst at Zhengxin Futures, will provide insights on risk management strategies for enterprises facing market volatility [3][5] - Speaker: Xu Jing, General Manager of Shanghai Zhengxin Tongchuang, will discuss practical applications of derivative tools for enhancing risk resilience [4][5] - Topic 2: Exploration of Futures and Spot Integration - Speaker: Hu Nan, Director of Futures and Spot Center at Jiangsu Xinbu Group, will share methods for leveraging futures to secure processing profits in the current market environment [6][7] - Topic 3: Outlook on the Non-Ferrous Metal Market under New Macroeconomic Context - Speaker: Yuan Tao, Risk Investment Director at Shanghai Dengran Industrial Co., will analyze macro policies and global liquidity's impact on the non-ferrous metal market over the next three to five years [7] Group 3: Cultural Experience - The event is hosted at the Kaiyuan Jing She Hotel in Yixing, surrounded by scenic areas, enhancing the overall experience [8] - Participants will have the opportunity to explore the cultural heritage of Yixing, particularly the ancient Zisha culture, which symbolizes the relationship between industry and culture [8]

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a downward trend in prices due to an oversupply situation, with both domestic and Indonesian refined nickel production on the rise, leading to increased supply pressure [1][2][4]. Group 1: Nickel Price Trends - As of November 12, the Shanghai nickel index closed at 118,870 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 0.55%, while London nickel prices fell below 15,000 USD/ton, marking a new low for the period [1]. - The overall nickel supply remains high, with domestic refined nickel production in October reaching 35,900 tons, an increase of 300 tons month-on-month [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Cumulative refined nickel production from January to October reached 335,200 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.37% [2]. - Global nickel inventory as of October 31 stood at 303,400 tons, an increase of approximately 95,000 tons compared to the beginning of the year, and up 120,000 tons year-on-year, reaching a five-year high [2]. Group 3: Nickel Ore Supply - Indonesia's nickel ore supply is projected to be around 300 million wet tons by 2025, with demand estimated at 260 million wet tons, indicating a shift from a tight to a loose supply situation [3]. - Domestic nickel ore imports in September totaled 6.11 million tons, a slight decrease of 3.6% month-on-month but a year-on-year increase of 33% [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The supply-demand imbalance is expected to drive nickel prices lower, but the downward potential may be limited due to support from nickel ore prices and seasonal factors affecting mining capacity in the Philippines [4]. - The Indonesian government has adjusted its mining approval process from a three-year to a one-year system, which may introduce uncertainties in nickel ore supply [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points has led to increased market expectations for further rate cuts due to evident signs of economic slowdown in the U.S. [1] Economic Indicators - A series of data indicates a clear slowdown in the U.S. economy, prompting market speculation about additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The potential resolution of the U.S. government "shutdown" crisis is expected to improve overseas liquidity [1] Gold Market Dynamics - Strong physical demand for gold persists, with central banks continuing to purchase gold, providing long-term support for gold prices [1] - Short-term gold and silver prices may continue to rebound, influenced by upcoming economic data releases [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - The U.S. monetary policy remains in a loose cycle, which may exacerbate stagflation risks [1] - The expansion of U.S. government debt could negatively impact the global dollar credit system, maintaining the long-term investment value in precious metals [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the domestic high-sulfur fuel oil futures are experiencing wide fluctuations due to supply disruptions and seasonal demand weakness, with prices expected to maintain a weak trend in the future [1][4] - The recent strengthening of the US dollar, driven by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, is expected to suppress global economic growth expectations and, consequently, the demand for dollar-denominated commodities, including fuel oil [2][4] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the tightening of supply from Russia due to ongoing attacks on energy facilities and increased sanctions, are significantly impacting the high-sulfur fuel oil market [3][4] Group 2 - The tightening supply from Russia, which has seen a 20% decline in refining capacity since the beginning of the year, is a critical factor supporting price stability in the high-sulfur fuel oil market [3] - In the Middle East and Latin America, supply pressures are also evident, with maintenance periods in Saudi Arabia and production cuts in Mexico affecting high-sulfur fuel oil availability [3] - Domestic refiners are increasingly turning to high-sulfur fuel oil as a feedstock for delayed coking processes, providing new demand support for the market [4]

Core Points - The G7 foreign ministers meeting in Canada reached a consensus on the Russia-Ukraine issue and are preparing to increase pressure on Russia [1] - A joint statement reaffirmed strong support for Ukraine and called for an immediate ceasefire from both sides [1] - The U.S. Secretary of State did not specify new pressure tactics but emphasized discussions on strengthening Ukraine's defense capabilities and pursuing diplomatic solutions for lasting peace [1] Summary by Categories Economic Measures - G7 ministers are increasing the economic costs on Russia and preparing sanctions against countries and entities funding Russia's war efforts [1] Diplomatic Efforts - The meeting focused on enhancing Ukraine's defense and encouraging Russia to seek diplomatic avenues for direct dialogue with Ukraine [1] Support for Ukraine - The G7 reiterated its unwavering support for Ukraine and called for an immediate ceasefire [1]

Core Points - The White House warns that the federal government shutdown may permanently affect the release of October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment data, leading to incomplete information for the Federal Reserve's decision-making [1][2] - The temporary funding bill passed by Congress is set to expire at the end of January, indicating that the risk of another government shutdown remains [1] Group 1 - The White House press secretary stated that even if the government shutdown ends, the October CPI and employment data may be irreparably compromised, resulting in the Federal Reserve being "in the dark" during critical decision-making periods [1] - During the shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was largely inactive, affecting its data collection and reporting functions, which delayed the release of September's employment data and led to a rushed compilation of CPI data [1] - The Labor Statistics Bureau had to recall some employees who were on unpaid leave due to the shutdown to complete the necessary reports [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold a monetary policy meeting in the second week of December, and if the October CPI and employment data are not released, the Fed may have to make decisions based on incomplete information [2]