进入12月，焦煤期货价格再度开启跌势。截至12月12日午盘收盘，焦煤期货主力2605合约报1016.5元／ 吨，较11月初的阶段性高点累计下跌超20%，单周跌幅为10.83%，创下年内单周最大跌幅。12月12日夜 盘虽出现尾盘短暂上翘，但难改整体空头格局。究其原因，是基本面变化、政策导向与市场情绪共振的 结果。 需求疲弱的负反馈直接传导至煤焦环节。焦化厂焦煤库存可用天数已升至12.32天，采购节奏明显放 缓，主产区坑口竞拍流拍率从11月的15%升至当前的38%，山西吕梁主焦煤坑口价单周下跌90元／吨。 更值得关注的是，焦炭第二轮提降已于12月12日落地，累计降幅达110元／吨，焦企利润被压缩，进一 步削弱其对焦煤的采购意愿与议价能力。 上下游环节均处于累库状态 在下游采购节奏放缓的背景下，上游矿山库存11月中旬出现拐点，近期其精煤累库呈现加速趋势。中游 流通环节成为累库核心，北方主要港口焦煤库存连续4周回升，目前至286万吨，其中蒙煤占比超60%， 港口堆存已接近警戒水平，部分贸易商被迫降价抛货。下游虽未大幅累库，但焦化厂和钢厂的焦煤库存 可用天数正在攀升，其采购节奏明显放缓。 后市展望 年底进口煤通关放量 ...

原油市场上，在OPEC+持续增产的同时，美国原油产量处于高位，且俄乌地缘冲突结束预期增强，油 价承压。不过，美国对委内瑞拉原油的制裁以及俄乌和谈结束前冲突不断等对油价存在一定支撑。 PX市场上，12月，亚洲PX装置检修不多，供应整体维持偏高水平。截至12月12日，国内PX装置负荷稳 定在88.1%。沙特Satorp和日本出光的装置重启，加之越南NSRP装置的负荷恢复，亚洲PX装置负荷提升 至79.3%。不过，12月以来，PX取价周期转向明年1—2月，且华东PX大厂降负预期较强，PX基本面预 期好转。 PTA供应上，11月，英力士年产能110万吨、能投年产能100万吨、逸盛宁波年产能220万吨的装置检 修，PTA装置负荷维持在75%以下，供应减量明显。12月，PTA无新增检修装置。 PTA需求上，聚酯装置在内外需支撑下，降负节点延后，叠加印度BIS认证取消后，PTA及下游聚酯产 品出口预期增加，聚酯装置负荷维持偏高水平。12月截至目前，聚酯装置平均负荷仍在91%的偏上水 平，超出此前预期。 综合分析，12月，PTA平衡表可能去库20万吨。在此过程中，PTA基差持续走强，自11月中旬的-75元／ 吨运行至当前的- ...

经历了2024年的低速增长后，PVC行业在2025年再度迎来投产高峰。截至目前，年内已新增产能220万 吨，增速接近8%，行业有效总产能也随之突破2900万吨。预计年底前，浙江嘉化30万吨乙烯法产能有 望投产。展望2026年，预计国内仅有嘉化这30万吨产能有望实现量产，并无其他新增计划；国外方面， 预计也仅有阿联酋35万吨产能计划于2026年底投产。综合来看，全球PVC产能扩张进程已步入尾声。 从实际产量看，2025年1—11月，国内PVC累计产量达2232万吨，同比增长4.35%。其中，电石法产量累 计同比增长1.95%，乙烯法产量则大幅增长11.48%。由于年内新增产能主要集中于乙烯法装置，因此供 应端增量压力也主要来自乙烯法装置。尽管PVC单产品亏损有所扩大，但在氯碱板块整体尚有利润的情 况下，2025年以来，PVC行业平均开工率维持在中性偏高水平，且整体高于去年同期。 PVC需求主要集中在房地产与基建领域，其中与房地产的关联尤为紧密。今年1—10月，全国房地产开 发投资完成额同比下降14.7%；房屋施工面积同比下降9.4%，新开工面积下降19.8%，竣工面积下降 16.9%；商品房销售面积同比下降6. ...

Core Viewpoint - The corn prices have shown an unusual upward trend since mid-October, contrary to the typical seasonal decline due to increased supply from new harvests, primarily driven by significant changes in domestic and international corn supply-demand dynamics [1]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The reduction in imported corn due to global trade tensions has led to a tightening supply situation, with domestic old grain stocks continuing to decline [1]. - The quality of new corn is subpar, particularly in North China due to persistent rainy weather, while Northeast corn quality is relatively better, adding regional supply pressure [1]. - There has been a notable increase in demand from the livestock sector, with significant year-on-year growth in pig and poultry inventories, driving up feed demand [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - Recent price corrections in corn futures were attributed to reduced profit margins for deep processing enterprises, leading to decreased purchasing willingness as previous inventory replenishment phases concluded [1]. - The market sentiment shifted towards reluctance to sell, compounded by profit-taking activities, resulting in a significant price pullback [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that corn prices will remain in a high-level oscillation pattern leading up to the New Year, with potential downward pressure post-New Year due to traditional selling peaks as farmers seek to repay loans and purchase new agricultural supplies [3]. - Despite short-term upward momentum potentially weakening, factors such as tight supply, increased winter logistics costs, and growing feed demand will continue to support prices [3]. - The acceptance of high-priced corn by downstream sectors remains low, and the price advantage of imported substitutes in southern markets may limit the upward potential for corn prices [3].

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities plans to increase capital for its subsidiary Dongwu Futures, highlighting the ongoing "capital increase wave" in the futures industry over the past two years [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Increase Details - Dongwu Securities announced a capital increase of 500 million yuan for Dongwu Futures, raising its registered capital from 1.0318 billion yuan to 1.5318 billion yuan [2]. - The capital increase will be conducted in proportion to existing shareholdings, with Dongwu Securities contributing 403.3 million yuan (80.66% of the total), while Suzhou Transportation Investment Group and Suzhou Yingcai Investment Group will contribute 14.71% and 4.63%, respectively [5]. - The purpose of this capital increase is to enhance net capital levels, expand business scale, and strengthen market position, aligning with the strategic development of modern securities holding groups [5]. Group 2: Industry Trends - Since the introduction of the "Futures Company Supervision Management Measures (Draft for Comments)" in 2023, at least nine futures companies have completed capital increases, predominantly among leading firms [6]. - The current "capital increase wave" is driven by regulatory requirements and proactive strategies from futures companies to strengthen their positions [7]. - The new regulations have raised the net capital thresholds for high-risk businesses, compelling shareholders to inject capital before obtaining licenses [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The capital increase trend is expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace, with potential mergers and acquisitions among futures companies anticipated [10]. - By 2026, the capital increase wave may intensify, while a slowdown could occur in 2027, particularly if adverse market events arise [10]. - The industry is likely to see a shift in business focus from traditional brokerage to capital-intensive operations, with a growing emphasis on technology and integrated solutions for clients [11].

Core Viewpoint - The corn market is experiencing an unusual price increase in October, contrary to the typical seasonal decline due to increased supply from new harvests. This anomaly is attributed to significant changes in domestic and international corn supply and demand dynamics [1]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The reduction in imported corn due to global trade tensions has led to a decrease in domestic corn inventory, resulting in a tight supply-demand situation even after the new harvest [1]. - The quality of new corn is subpar, particularly in North China due to adverse weather conditions, which has further pressured prices. In contrast, the Northeast region has better quality corn, increasing regional supply pressure [1]. - There has been a notable increase in demand from the livestock sector, with significant growth in the number of pigs and poultry, driving up feed demand [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - Recent price corrections in corn futures were observed due to reduced profit margins for deep processing enterprises, leading to decreased purchasing intentions. The demand pull effect has weakened as companies completed their inventory replenishment [1]. - Analysts predict that the Northeast region is unlikely to see large-scale grain sales in late December, as farmers are reluctant to sell due to favorable storage conditions and supportive pricing policies [3]. - The corn price is expected to remain in a high-level fluctuation pattern leading up to the New Year, with potential downward pressure post-New Year due to traditional selling peaks and increased supply [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced an adjustment to the trading fee for the tin futures contract SN2601, effective from December 17, with a new fee set at 6 yuan per hand [1]. Group 1 - The trading fee for the tin futures contract SN2601 will be adjusted to 6 yuan per hand starting from December 17 [1].

Group 1 - The core activity focuses on enhancing the service capabilities of futures companies to better support the real economy, particularly in the context of high precious metal prices [1] - The event highlights the shift from traditional hedging to refined management practices among local enterprises, emphasizing the importance of training in hedging business [1][2] - The Hunan Nonferrous Metals Association and the Hunan Futures Association have been promoting hedging training competitions for three consecutive years to improve risk management and practical skills in the industry [1] Group 2 - Hunan Mineral Resources Group, a leading enterprise in the local nonferrous and ferrous metals sector, has a complete production chain from exploration to delivery, with subsidiaries like Hunan Gold and Hunan Silver being publicly listed [2] - The company produces 4 to 5 tons of gold annually from its own mines and purchases an additional 50 to 60 tons, involving multiple companies in the production and delivery process [2] Group 3 - The rising gold prices have concentrated profits at the mining end, while the refining and smelting sectors receive limited benefits, primarily earning processing fees [3] - Hunan Gold Jewelry Company, a subsidiary, focuses on gold refining and processing, with significant revenue coming from the price difference between recovered gold and the Shanghai Gold Exchange benchmark [3] Group 4 - Following the gold tax reform in November, the cost of non-investment gold products has increased, while investment gold bars have seen a sales increase of over 200% month-on-month [4] - The group has been engaged in hedging activities for over a decade, with a focus on gold, silver, lead, and zinc [4] Group 5 - The group employs a segmented hedging management approach, with each segment (mining, smelting, refining) conducting its own hedging activities [5] - The company aims to manage risks while achieving operational goals, adjusting its hedging strategies based on market conditions and price forecasts [5] Group 6 - The use of options in hedging strategies has been explored, allowing the company to lower transaction costs and potentially earn premiums [6] - The event indicates a growing recognition among enterprises of the importance of refined risk management using futures and options, which is becoming essential for maintaining operational safety amid price fluctuations [6]

在"期货大家谈——2025期货业盘点"系列访谈第三期节目中，首创期货总经理助理孙伏鲲以"趋势、反 转与波动"三大维度为纲，系统性复盘2025年期货市场十大经典案例，深度拆解热门品种每一轮涨跌背 后的宏观推手、产业矛盾与资金博弈，为交易者勾勒出一幅清晰的市场认知地图。 以多晶硅为代表的新能源金属品种，上演了从"熊"到"雄"的逆转。在基本面供大于求、库存高企的背景 下，多晶硅行情反转主要源于"反内卷"政策驱动。后续需关注仓单注册进度，新仓单周度增量若大幅增 长，将缓解交割品紧张预期；相反，若仓单注册量低于预期，多空博弈可能加剧。中期来看，"反内 卷"政策若能明确产能上限或设立价格协调机制，多晶硅价格有望进一步上涨。 工业硅与碳酸锂同样受"反内卷"政策预期影响。工业硅当前估值较低，但产能过剩严重，消费端没有明 显驱动。碳酸锂则需关注供给弹性、需求预期以及行业成本情况。 "趋势之王"：宏观叙事与产业瓶颈共振 孙伏鲲表示，2025年的"趋势之王"是那些在宏观大势与产业深层矛盾共同作用下，走出持续性单边行情 的品种。 黄金价格在2025年超预期上涨。孙伏鲲认为，其上涨逻辑较为坚实：地缘冲突频发推升避险需求；美联 储降息改 ...

早上好，先来关注下地缘局势和特朗普的最新表态。 泰国军队称空袭柬埔寨两处军事目标 据央视新闻消息，泰国陆军第一军区13日在社交媒体发文说，当地时间13日16时09分，该军区陆军部队 联合空军对柬方两处军事目标实施空袭，成功摧毁一处弹药库和一处防空通信系统。 泰国海军发言人13日表示，海军舰队于当天凌晨在泰国湾开展军事行动，旨在削弱并遏制柬方在戈公省 一带的军事能力，保障泰国湾沿岸民众的生命与财产安全。 另据泰国国防部发言人及卫生部官员13日在有关泰柬边境局势的新闻发布会上通报，此轮泰柬冲突已造 成15名泰国士兵死亡、超过270名士兵受伤。截至当天上午，7名平民死亡，民众转移超26万人。 此外，当地时间12月13日下午，泰国总理阿努廷回应了马来西亚总理安瓦尔关于13日22时泰柬边境停火 的说法。 阿努廷表示，目前尚未收到相关消息，现在各种信息传播很多，建议以泰国军方发布的正式声明为准。 阿努廷还表示，目前尚未开始任何停火谈判，也还未到那个阶段。 此前，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上表示，他当天早上分别与泰国总理阿努廷和柬埔寨 首相洪玛奈通话，讨论两国边境冲突的最新情况。特朗普称，两国领导人已同意从当 ...