Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend during the week of December 8-12, 2025, with increased trading volume. By December 12, major broad-based index timing indicators turned bullish [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.74%, indicating a mixed performance across different indices [4] - The central economic work conference in December boosted market confidence, suggesting potential for further upward movement in the market [4] Valuation Insights - As of December 12, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai 50 Index were classified as "danger" in terms of valuation percentiles, while the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext Index were deemed "moderate" [4] - In the CITIC industry classification, sectors such as coal, steel, building materials, and power equipment were categorized as "danger" in valuation percentiles, whereas food and beverage, and non-bank financials were classified as "safe" [5] Fund Flow Analysis - The top five stocks attracting institutional attention were Haiguang Information, Zhongke Shuguang, Anke Innovation, Jiangsu Bank, and Weichuang Electric, with the highest number of institutional surveys [6] - Southbound capital saw a net outflow of HKD 3.443 billion, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect experiencing a net outflow of HKD 9.381 billion [6] - Stock ETFs had a median return of 0.14% with a net outflow of CNY 2.974 billion, while commodity ETFs had a median return of 0.81% with a net inflow of CNY 241 million [6] Fund Concentration Trends - As of December 12, 2025, the degree of fund concentration among stocks increased compared to the previous week, with excess returns for concentrated stocks and funds rising [7]

Macro - The Biden administration's enhanced healthcare plan has become a political tool for both parties, significantly impacting the capital market. Currently, only three departments have reached a budget agreement, accounting for 11% of the total budget, while the remaining nine departments' budgets are set to expire on January 30, 2026. The recent vote on healthcare proposals has led to a bleak outlook for resolution before the Christmas holiday [5] Financial Engineering - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery with increased trading confidence, as evidenced by the rising volatility in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices. The Central Economic Work Conference has further boosted market sentiment, suggesting a potential transition from a liquidity-driven market to one driven by fundamentals. The focus remains on a "dividend + technology" investment strategy for the medium to long term [5] Steel Industry - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in December is expected to be lower than the same period last year. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has introduced new regulations aimed at phasing out outdated production capacity, which may lead to a recovery in steel sector profitability to historical average levels [7] Non-Ferrous Metals - Lithium prices have reached approximately 92,000 yuan per ton, with recommendations to focus on companies with cost advantages and resource expansion potential. Prices for cobalt and other related materials have increased, while tungsten prices remain at their highest levels since 2012. The price of neodymium oxide has reached a 19-month high [8] Petrochemical Industry - Sinopec Group is actively pursuing deep reforms and transformations, enhancing governance efficiency through world-class management benchmarks. The company is also improving its ESG performance and has established a clear path for carbon neutrality, attracting long-term capital investments [8] Electric New Energy and Environmental Protection - The Central Economic Work Conference has emphasized the application of green electricity and the promotion of a comprehensive green transition. Plans for 2026 include strengthening the national carbon emissions trading market and fostering new growth areas such as hydrogen energy and green fuels [8]

Group 1: Military Industry New Materials - The price of electrolytic cobalt this week is 406,000 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.5% week-on-week. The price ratio of electrolytic cobalt to cobalt powder is 0.78, down 1.0% [4] - The price of carbon fiber this week is 83.8 CNY/kg, with a gross profit margin of 9.61 CNY/kg [4] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Materials - The prices of electric carbon, industrial carbon, and battery-grade lithium hydroxide are 92,100 CNY/ton, 89,300 CNY/ton, and 82,200 CNY/ton, respectively, with changes of +0%, +0%, and -0.2% week-on-week. The price gap between electric carbon and industrial carbon is at its lowest since November 2024, indicating a potential weakening in lithium battery market conditions compared to the industrial sector [5] - The price of sulfuric cobalt this week is 90,200 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.86% [5] - The prices of lithium iron phosphate and 523-type cathode materials are 39,100 CNY/ton and 158,600 CNY/ton, with changes of +0% and +1.4% respectively [5] - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide is 578.74 CNY/kg, down 0.7% [5] Group 3: Photovoltaic New Materials - The price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon this week is 6.50 USD/kg, unchanged week-on-week [6] - The price of EVA is 9,800 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.0%, reaching a low level not seen since 2013 [6] - The price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass coating is 24.0 CNY/square meter, unchanged [6] Group 4: Nuclear Power New Materials - The prices of zirconium oxychloride, sponge zirconium, hafnium oxide, zirconium silicate, and zircon sand are 13,750 CNY/ton, 145 CNY/kg, 9,000 CNY/kg, 13,450 CNY/ton, and 14,012.5 CNY/ton, respectively, all unchanged week-on-week [7] - The uranium price for November 2025 is 62.24 USD/pound, down 2.7% [7] Group 5: Consumer Electronics New Materials - The price of tetracobalt oxide is 347,300 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.73% [8] - The price of lithium cobalt oxide is 381.0 CNY/kg, unchanged [8] - The price of silicon carbide is 5,300.00 CNY/ton, down 1.9% [8] - The prices of high-purity gallium, crude indium, and refined indium are 1,805.00 CNY/kg, 2,475.00 CNY/kg, and 2,575.00 CNY/kg, with changes of +0%, +2.9%, and +2.8% respectively [9] - The price of germanium dioxide is 8,950 CNY/kg, unchanged [9] Group 6: Other Materials - The prices of platinum, rhodium, and iridium are 440.00 CNY/g, 2,085.00 CNY/g, and 1,100.00 CNY/g, with increases of 3.8%, 4.5%, and 0% respectively [10]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 公司持续推进国企改革深化行动，通过"对标世界一流管理提升行动"优化治理效能，同步深化市场化经营机制 改革，全面推行经理层任期制与契约化管理，激发组织活力，为"提质增效"提供制度保障。在此背景下，公司 ESG表现持续提升，制定清晰的"双碳"实施路径，ESG评级位居同业前列，吸引长期资金积极配置。 风险分析： 上游资本开支增速不及预期、原油和天然气价格大幅波动。 发布日期： 2025-12-14 报告摘要 世界级石化龙头砥砺奋进，股份公司上市25周年再启航 中国石油化工集团有限公司是中国最大的成品油和石化产品供应商，世界第一大炼油公司、第二大化工公司， 加油站总数位居世界第二。公司主要包括四大业务板块，分别为油气和新能源板块、炼油和销售板块 ...

（张宇生/郭磊）2025-12-14 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【策略】新一轮政策部署护航，A股跨年行情可期——策略周专题（2025年12月第2期） 新一轮政策部署护航，A股跨年行情可期。一方面，未来国内经济政策有望持续发力，经济增长有望保持在合 理区间，进一步夯实资本市场繁荣发展的基础；另一方面，政策红利释放，有望提振市场信心，进一步吸引各 类资金积极流入；此外，历史来看，"十三五"和"十四五"开局之年A股市场均有不错的表现，历史上开局之年 的积极表现有望在2026年得到延续。 您可点击今日推送内容的第3条查看 【房地产】11月核心15城二手房成交面积环比+15%——光大核心城市房地产销售跟踪（2025年11月 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of policy coordination to stabilize and promote high-quality economic development, focusing on domestic demand, innovation, reform, and openness as key areas for 2025 [3][4][5] - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference outlined eight key tasks, including building a strong domestic market, enhancing innovation-driven growth, and promoting green transformation [3][4] - The article highlights the ongoing reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and the positive outlook for the "Three Oil Giants" (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) due to their strong production growth and contribution to energy security [4] Group 2 - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in its economic landscape as capital expenditure decreases and demand gradually improves, despite a recent decline in fixed asset investment [5] - The article notes that the semiconductor industry is experiencing growth driven by AI and data center expansion, which is increasing the demand for key materials such as photoresists and electronic chemicals [6] - The rapid development of the humanoid robot industry is creating new demand for high-performance materials, with specific materials like PEEK and MXD6 showing significant potential due to their lightweight and high-strength properties [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of market performance, highlighting the performance of various factors and strategies across different stock pools, indicating potential investment opportunities and trends in the market [4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Factor Performance - In the large-cap factor performance for the week of December 8-12, 2025, the size factor, beta factor, and non-linear market cap factor achieved positive returns of 1.18%, 0.91%, and 0.82% respectively, while the BP factor and liquidity factor recorded negative returns of -0.55% and -0.38% [4]. - In the CSI 300 stock pool, the best-performing factors included total asset growth rate (2.05%), quarterly ROA (1.71%), and turnover rate relative volatility (1.59%), while the worst-performing factors were logarithmic market cap (-1.00%), downside volatility ratio (-1.10%), and large net inflow (-1.14%) [5]. - In the CSI 500 stock pool, the top factors were quarterly EPS (1.61%), total asset growth rate (1.39%), and momentum spring factor (1.22%), with the worst being price-to-sales ratio TTM inverse (-2.49%), downside volatility ratio (-2.55%), and price-to-book ratio (-3.06%) [5]. - In the liquidity 1500 stock pool, the best factors were total asset growth rate (2.25%), quarterly revenue growth rate (2.05%), and quarterly ROA year-on-year (1.92%), while the worst were price-to-earnings ratio (-0.90%), downside volatility ratio (-0.95%), and price-to-book ratio (-0.97%) [5]. Industry Factor Performance - The net asset growth rate factor performed well in the telecommunications, comprehensive, and coal industries, while the net profit growth rate factor excelled in the telecommunications sector [6]. - The earnings per share factor showed strong performance in the telecommunications industry, and the residual volatility factor performed well in telecommunications and commercial trade sectors [6]. Strategy Performance - The PB-ROE-50 combination achieved significant excess returns across stock pools, with the CSI 500 stock pool gaining an excess return of 0.30%, the CSI 800 stock pool gaining 1.60%, and the overall market stock pool gaining 1.59% [7]. - Public fund research selection strategies and private fund research tracking strategies both yielded positive excess returns, with public fund strategies outperforming the CSI 800 by 1.79% and private fund strategies outperforming by 2.77% [8]. - The block trading combination experienced a relative excess return drawdown against the CSI All Index, with an excess return of -0.95% [9]. - The directed issuance combination also faced a relative excess return drawdown against the CSI All Index, with an excess return of -1.50% [10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a favorable cross-year trend supported by new policy deployments, with a focus on TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors, while defensive and consumer sectors may be considered if external factors lead to short-term market fluctuations [6][7]. Market Performance - Most major A-share indices saw gains this week, with the ChiNext Index, Sci-Tech 50, and CSI 500 leading in growth, while the Shanghai Composite, SSE 50, and CSI 300 experienced declines [4]. - The mid-cap growth style outperformed, with significant sector performance variation; telecommunications and defense industries showed strong gains, while coal and oil sectors faced declines [4]. Important Events Review - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized a "steady progress and quality improvement" approach, continuing with a "more proactive fiscal policy" and "moderately loose monetary policy" [5]. - Economic data showed a year-on-year growth of 8.5% in social financing stock by the end of November, with the CPI rising by 0.7% [5]. - Internationally, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and initiated a short-term Treasury purchase program, while Japan's GDP contracted by 2.3% year-on-year in Q3 [5][7]. Policy Outlook - The new policy measures are expected to bolster market confidence and attract various types of capital inflows, with historical trends indicating strong A-share performance during the initial years of the 13th and 14th Five-Year Plans [7].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 新房：1-11月光大核心30城住宅成交面积同比-16%，成交均价同比+1% 1 ） 2025 年 11 月 ， 光 大 核 心 30 城 商 品 住 宅 ( 不 含 保 障 ) 成 交 面 积 为 872 万 ㎡ ， 同 比 -47.4% ， 环 比-15.9%；其中，北上广深杭蓉成交面积281万㎡，同比-52.0%，环比-3.5%，余下二线24城成交面 积591万㎡，同比-44.9%，环比-20.8%。 2）2025年1-11月，光大核心30城商品住宅(不含保障)成交面积为1.15亿㎡，同比-15.6%；其中，北 上广深杭蓉成交面积3,622万㎡，同比-12.7%，余下二线24城成交面积7,861万㎡，同比-16.8%。 3 ...

本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周小结：宏观情绪改善，看好铜价继续上行 截至2025年12月12日，SHFE铜收盘价94080 元/吨，环比12月5日+1.40%；LME铜收盘价11553 美元/吨， 环比12月5日-0.96%。（1）宏观：美联储12月如期降息；国内中央经济工作会议强调明年政策"坚持稳中 求进、提质增效"，提出优化"两新"（大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新）政策，整体利好铜消费。（2） 供需：线缆企业开工率在铜价大涨后本周略有回落，但Q4电网旺季效应仍存；2025Q4空调排产同比下 降，但环比改善；供需仍将维持偏紧格局，继续看好铜价上行。 库存：国内铜社库环比+2.6%，LME铜库存环比+0.8% 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： （1）港口铜精矿库存：截至2025年12月 ...