Market Performance Overview - The domestic equity market showed mixed performance during the week of December 8 to December 12, 2025, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.74% [4] - In terms of sectors, telecommunications, national defense and military industry, and electronics sectors led the gains, while coal, oil and petrochemicals, and steel sectors experienced the largest declines [4] Fund Product Issuance - A total of 28 new funds were established in the domestic market this week, with a combined issuance of 18.218 billion units. This includes 9 bond funds, 10 stock funds, 4 FOF funds, 3 mixed funds, 1 international (QDII) fund, and 1 money market fund [5] - Overall, 38 new funds were issued across the market, categorized as 13 stock funds, 8 FOF funds, 8 bond funds, 8 mixed funds, and 1 international (QDII) fund [5] Fund Product Performance Tracking - The defense and military industry theme funds outperformed this week, while cyclical theme funds saw a net value correction. As of December 12, 2025, the net value changes for various theme funds were as follows: defense and military industry (3.39%), TMT (3.17%), industry balanced (1.08%), industry rotation (0.50%), new energy (0.12%), pharmaceuticals (-0.42%), financial real estate (-0.66%), consumption (-0.67%), and cyclical (-1.12%) [6] ETF Market Tracking - Stock ETFs experienced a slight outflow of funds this week, primarily from TMT, financial real estate, and ChiNext theme ETFs, while large-cap broad-based ETFs saw significant inflows from passive funds. Hong Kong stock ETFs also experienced notable inflows [7] - The median return for stock ETFs this week was 0.19%, with a net outflow of 2.974 billion yuan. In contrast, Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of -1.42% and a net inflow of 8.865 billion yuan. Cross-border ETFs had a median return of -0.11% with a net inflow of 1.115 billion yuan, while commodity ETFs had a median return of 0.81% and a net inflow of 241 million yuan [7] Broad-based ETF Insights - Broad-based ETFs saw a significant net inflow of 9.058 billion yuan this week. Additionally, the new energy theme ETFs also experienced notable net inflows totaling 778 million yuan [8] ESG Financial Products Tracking - This week, 28 new green bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 29.152 billion yuan. The domestic green bond market has steadily developed, with a cumulative issuance scale of 5.12 trillion yuan and a total of 4,396 bonds issued as of December 12, 2025 [8] - As of December 12, 2025, there were 211 ESG funds in the domestic market, with a total scale of 150.981 billion yuan. The median net value changes for various ESG fund types this week were as follows: active equity funds (0.60%), passive stock index funds (-0.01%), and bond funds (0.05%). Funds focused on low-carbon economy, carbon neutrality, and social responsibility performed well [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent developments in the pharmaceutical industry, particularly focusing on the acquisition of a multi-trace element injection asset group by Zhaoli Pharmaceutical, which is expected to enhance its product portfolio and market position [4][5][6]. Group 1: Legal and Financial Developments - Zhaoli Pharmaceutical's subsidiary, Qinghai Zhuofeng Pharmaceutical, won a lawsuit against Huadong Pharmaceutical, with the court dismissing all claims from Huadong and ordering it to bear the legal costs of 598,732 yuan [4]. - Zhaoli Pharmaceutical signed an agreement to acquire a multi-trace element injection asset group for a total price of 356 million yuan, which includes both marketed and in-development products [5]. Group 2: Product and Market Insights - The acquired products, including "Multi-trace Element Injection (I)" and "Multi-trace Element Injection (II)," are classified as Category B drugs under national medical insurance and have been recommended in various clinical guidelines, indicating their efficacy and safety [6]. - The market for multi-trace element injections is projected to reach approximately 1.8 billion yuan by 2024, with stable growth in sales volumes for both products from 2020 to 2024, showing a compound annual growth rate of 12.44% for Injection (I) and 35.58% for Injection (II) [7]. Group 3: Financial Projections and Competitive Landscape - The asset group is expected to generate a net profit of approximately 60 million yuan for the full year of 2025, enhancing Zhaoli Pharmaceutical's profitability [8]. - The acquisition is valued at about 6 times the price-to-earnings ratio, indicating a favorable cost-benefit ratio, and the payment will be made in stages to alleviate cash flow pressure [8].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The central bank is likely to raise interest rates in December 2025, but the impact of carry trades may be less significant than in July 2024 due to a smaller scale of carry trades and a lower number of non-commercial short positions [5] - Current US economic conditions do not indicate a recession risk, reducing the likelihood of accelerated unwinding of carry trades [5] - The sentiment towards the Japanese yen is not concentrated, and the potential for policy rate increases in Japan is limited, adding uncertainty to the yen's outlook [5] Group 2: Fund Market Trends - The domestic equity market showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.74%, while defense and military-themed funds outperformed [6] - A total of 28 new funds were established in the domestic market, with a combined issuance of 18.218 billion shares [6] - There was a slight outflow of funds from stock ETFs, primarily from TMT, financial real estate, and ChiNext-themed ETFs, while large-cap broad-based ETFs saw significant inflows from passive funds [6] Group 3: Economic Data and Bond Market - Key economic indicators showed further decline in November 2025, with industrial production growth slowing year-on-year but improving month-on-month [6] - Fixed asset investment saw an expanded year-on-year decline, although the month-on-month decline narrowed in November [6] - The consumer spending growth rate continued to decline, with month-on-month growth weaker than seasonal trends; the bond market is expected to become more optimistic as the funding environment remains loose [6] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Microelectrophysiology (688351.SH) is a leading domestic player in cardiac electrophysiology, achieving revenue of 413 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.51%, and a net profit of 52 million yuan, up 815.36% [7] - Zoli Pharmaceutical (300181.SZ) plans to acquire a range of trace element injection assets from Future Pharmaceutical, enhancing its product structure and leveraging complementary advantages for potential revenue growth [7]

Core Viewpoint - The economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a mixed performance in industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales for November 2025, suggesting underlying economic challenges and a need for cautious optimism in investment strategies [4][5][6][7]. Industrial Production - In November 2025, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a slight decrease from 4.9% in October. However, the month-on-month growth rate improved to +0.44%, indicating a positive trend in short-term production [5]. - Among the three major sectors, the mining industry saw an increase in year-on-year growth, while the manufacturing and utilities sectors experienced a decline [5]. Fixed Asset Investment - From January to November 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6%, marking a widening decline. However, the month-on-month growth rate for November showed a smaller decline of -1.03% [6]. - Investment in real estate, manufacturing, and broad infrastructure remained weak, contributing to the overall decline in fixed asset investment [6]. Retail Sales - The year-on-year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales in November was 1.3%, down from 2.9% in the previous month. The month-on-month growth rate was -0.42%, which was weaker than seasonal expectations [7]. - Sales growth across different types of consumer goods also showed a decline compared to the previous month [7]. Bond Market Insights - Since August 2025, the yield on government bonds has shown a clear divergence, with short-term yields remaining stable and declining, while long-term yields, particularly the 30-year yield, have been on an upward trend, resulting in a steeper yield curve [8]. - The current liquidity in the market is relatively loose, and despite weak fundamentals, there is a growing optimism among investors regarding the bond market, with expectations for the 10-year government bond yield to stabilize around 1.75% [8]. - In the convertible bond market, as of December 12, 2025, the performance of convertible bonds has lagged behind the equity market, with a year-to-date increase of 16.5% compared to 21.8% for the broader index. However, convertible bonds are still considered relatively high-quality assets in the long term [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rapid growth and opportunities in the domestic electrophysiology market, driven by favorable policies and technological advancements, with a focus on the company's comprehensive solutions in cardiac electrophysiology [4][5]. Industry Overview - The domestic electrophysiology market is experiencing a high growth period, with significant increases in traditional radiofrequency and cryoablation technologies, as well as new pulse ablation technologies injecting vitality into the market [5]. - The market share of foreign brands like Johnson & Johnson is decreasing, with the industry's CR5 dropping from 93% in 2020 to 72% in 2024, indicating a shift towards domestic alternatives [5]. - Policies such as the "14th Five-Year" medical equipment industry development plan are key drivers for market growth, while DRG and volume-based procurement are opening up channels for domestic products [5]. Company Performance - The company, established in 2010, specializes in electrophysiological intervention and ablation treatment, achieving a revenue of 413 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.51%, and a net profit of 52 million yuan, up 815.36% year-on-year [4]. - The company has a complete product line covering two-dimensional and three-dimensional series, with a leading matrix of measurement, ablation, equipment, and accessories [7]. - The company's ablation catheter products are deeply compatible with the core Columbus three-dimensional mapping system, creating synergistic advantages [7]. Technological Advancements - The company is driving breakthroughs in multiple fields through independent research and development, creating several domestically innovative products that cover key areas such as radiofrequency, cryoablation, pulse ablation, and three-dimensional mapping [7]. - The company has achieved over 1100 hospital coverage for three-dimensional surgeries, with a cumulative total of over 70,000 cases by 2024 [7]. - The company is also making strides in emerging fields, with the PulseMagic catheter for pulse ablation expected to be approved in November 2025, and a self-developed catheter for renal artery treatment [7].

Core Viewpoints - The ongoing expansion of the interest rate differential between the US and Japan since 2022 has led to an increase in the scale of yen carry trades, raising concerns about potential market impacts due to the reversal of these trades [4][5]. Group 1: Yen Carry Trade Activity - The activity level of yen carry trades can be observed through both on-balance and off-balance sheet banking operations. On-balance sheet metrics include the volume of yen-denominated loans issued by global banks and the scale of internal accounts held by foreign banks in Japan. Off-balance sheet observations can be made through the foreign exchange swap market, particularly by monitoring the net short positions in non-commercial yen futures [5]. Group 2: Bank of Japan's Interest Rate Decisions - The probability of the Bank of Japan raising its policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75% in the December meeting is considered high. This is attributed to two main factors: the rapid depreciation of the yen could exert inflationary pressure domestically, and there are expectations of higher wage growth in Japan next year, which poses a risk of a "wage-inflation" spiral [6]. Group 3: Impact of Current Carry Trades on Financial Markets - The current impact of carry trades on financial markets is expected to be less significant than in 2024. The scale of current carry trades is only 40% of the levels seen in July 2024. Additionally, the macroeconomic environment in the US does not indicate a recession risk, which reduces the likelihood of unexpected scenarios leading to accelerated unwinding of carry trades. Furthermore, the potential for an increase in Japan's policy rate is limited, and the sentiment towards the yen is not concentrated, suggesting that any appreciation of the yen will have a minimal market impact. The conflicting goals of Japan's large-scale fiscal stimulus and the central bank's inflation control measures may lead to further selling pressure on Japanese government bonds [7].

Overall Viewpoint - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to adhere to "dual carbon" goals by 2026, promoting a comprehensive green transition and advancing energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformations in key industries [4] - The conference also highlights the importance of developing a national carbon emissions trading market and fostering new growth points such as hydrogen energy and green fuels, along with the establishment of zero-carbon parks and factories [4] - The investment opportunities in the green energy sector, including hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, green electricity, and energy storage, are expected to remain strong in 2026 [4] Group 1: Domestic Energy Storage - In November, domestic energy storage installations saw significant growth, with a total new installed capacity of 4.51 GW/13.03 GWh, representing a month-on-month increase of 57.14% (power) and 74.66% (capacity), and a year-on-year increase of 45.95% (power) and 49.6% (capacity) [5] - The independent energy storage bidding in 2026 is anticipated to maintain a favorable level, supported by the development of the industry and the establishment of a complete revenue model through energy markets [5] - The rapid increase in compressed air energy storage is noted in the recent bidding results [5] Group 2: Hydrogen, Ammonia, and Wind Power - The central economic meeting indicates a focus on cultivating hydrogen energy and green fuels as new growth points, with plans to build zero-carbon parks and factories [6] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to benefit from both China's future industries and the EU carbon tariff, making hydrogen and ammonia promising directions for investment [6] Group 3: Lithium Batteries - The retail sales of new energy vehicles in the first week of December reached 185,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 17% and a month-on-month decrease of 10%, indicating high policy sensitivity among consumers [7] - The central economic work conference's deployment to optimize "two new" policy implementations suggests the continuation of national subsidy policies to stimulate automotive consumption [7] - The lithium battery supply chain is expected to see a trend of improvement, with companies launching large capacity storage battery solutions aimed at cost reduction [7]

报告摘要 1、金融时序预测和神经网络模型 针对金融时间序列的预测，经历了从传统计量模型、到传统机器学习模型、再到深度学习模型的三个主要 发展阶段。深度学习模型能够较好适应金融时间序列的非平稳、非线性、高噪声和长记忆性等复杂特征， 是当前主流的金融时序预测方法之一。 神经网络模型（Neural Networks，NN）是一种模仿人脑神经元连接结构设计的机器学习模型，也是深度 学习的基础结构。循环神经网络（RNN）及其变种模型，如长短期记忆神经网络（LSTM），是专为处理 序列数据而设计的网络，具备记忆性和参数共享等优势。LSTM是为解决传统RNN的长期依赖问题而专门 设计的模型，通过引入特有的"门控机制"和记忆单元，不仅有效缓解了传统RNN的梯度消失/爆炸问题，而 且能够过滤序列中的噪声与无关信息，增强对不规则数据的鲁棒性。在进行债券收益率预测时，LSTM的 上述优势使其能够有效处理长时期的时间序列，同时过滤噪声，精准捕捉收益率的动态变化规律。 2、基于堆叠LSTM模型的国债收益率预测 本报告采用了三层堆叠LSTM+Dropout正则化的经典稳健架构来构建十年期国债收益率预测模型，初步探 索深度学习模型在固收量 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, Biden's enhanced healthcare becomes a political tool for both parties, significantly impacting the capital markets. Currently, only three departments have reached a budget agreement, while nine departments' budgets will expire on January 30, 2026. The recent healthcare vote resulted in both parties rejecting each other's proposals, diminishing hopes for a resolution before the Christmas holiday [5]. Group 1: Political and Economic Scenarios - Scenario One: Government shutdown leads to a lapse in healthcare subsidies, triggering interest rate cuts, resulting in a "recessionary" trading environment. In this scenario, the US dollar index and US stocks would decline, while safe-haven assets like gold would benefit. However, this scenario remains low probability as neither party can afford the consequences of failing to extend healthcare subsidies, especially with midterm elections approaching for the Republicans [5]. - Scenario Two: Both parties reach an agreement on healthcare subsidies, allowing the government to operate smoothly, leading to a quarter-on-quarter economic rebound in the US and a pause in interest rate cuts. This scenario would favor US stocks and the dollar index, while gold as a safe-haven asset would face relative pressure. However, significant challenges remain for both parties to achieve a satisfactory agreement on healthcare in January [5][6]. - Scenario Three: Republicans push through fiscal budgets and their version of healthcare subsidies using "budget reconciliation." The economy would remain strong, similar to the first scenario, but this would prevent Republicans from using the "fast track" for future fiscal subsidies and budgets, creating risks for the next government shutdown [6]. - Scenario Four: A compromise budget agreement is reached before the January 30, 2026 deadline, leading to continued uncertainty in the US market. Asset price movements would be convoluted, favoring safe-haven assets like gold [7].

Liquidity - M1 and M2 growth rate difference reached a nearly 56-month high in September, followed by a decline for two consecutive months [4] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for November 2025 is 52.50, up 0.17% month-on-month [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in November 2025 is -3.1 percentage points, down 1.10 percentage points month-on-month [4] - Current London gold spot price is $4,299 per ounce [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate has been below the same period last year for two consecutive weeks [5] - Price changes this week include rebar down 0.61%, cement price index up 0.86%, rubber up 1.71%, coke down 3.29%, coking coal down 0.71%, and iron ore down 0.63% [5] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, and asphalt are down 1.16 percentage points, down 0.30 percentage points, and up 0.3 percentage points respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Titanium dioxide gross profit is at a low level, with a gross profit of -1,679 yuan per ton [6] - Prices for titanium dioxide and glass remain unchanged week-on-week [6] - Flat glass operating rate this week is 73.82% [6] Industrial Products Chain - The semi-steel tire operating rate is at the median level for the past five years [7] - Major commodity price performance this week includes cold-rolled steel unchanged, copper up 2.59%, and aluminum down 0.36% [8] - National semi-steel tire operating rate is 71.57%, up 0.65 percentage points week-on-week [8] Subcategories - Prebaked anode prices are at the highest level since April 2023 [9] - Graphite electrode price is 19,000 yuan per ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 3,128.56 yuan per ton, up 55.87% [9] - Electrolytic aluminum price is 22,070 yuan per ton, down 0.36%, with estimated profit of 4,759 yuan per ton (excluding tax), up 0.19% [9] - Electrolytic copper price is 93,970 yuan per ton, up 2.59% [9] - Tungsten concentrate price is 374,000 yuan per ton, up 5.65% week-on-week [9] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of London spot gold to silver reached a new low since July 2021 [10] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore this week is 4.07 [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 0 yuan per ton [10] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 490 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan per ton week-on-week [10] - The price ratio of stainless steel hot-rolled to electrolytic nickel is 0.11 [10] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) is 190 yuan per ton, up 11.76% week-on-week [10] - The price difference between medium-thick plates and rebar is 30 yuan per ton [10] Export Chain - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index this week is 1,118.07 points, up 0.29% [11] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 75.70%, down 0.10 percentage points [11] - In November 2025, China's PMI new export orders are at 47.60%, up 1.7 percentage points month-on-month [11] - Starting January 1, 2026, China will implement export license management for certain steel products, which is expected to further regulate steel product exports [11] Valuation Percentiles - This week, the CSI 300 index is down 0.08%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being engineering machinery, up 0.30% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 34.35% and 96.70% respectively [12] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is currently 0.51, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 (reached in August 2017) [12]