在这样的背景下，近日， 彭博社（ Bloomberg）对快手高级副总裁、可灵AI事业部负责人兼社区科学线负责人盖坤进行了深度专访。 报道指出，很少有 大型企业能像快手这样，如此迅速地实现向人工智能领域的战略转型。过去18个月里，快手的AI战略路径愈发清晰，并以可灵这一产品迅速切入全球市 场。 根据 Sensor Tower 的数据，截至 1 月 2 日，快手的 可灵 AI 应用是韩国和俄罗斯 iPhone 上收入最高的图形与设计类应用，并在美国、英国、日本、 澳大利亚和土耳其等市场位列前十。彭博预计， 2025年可灵AI的商业收入将达到1.4亿美元。随着可灵商业化和海外化扩展的进程逐步加快，市场对快手 AI布局的预期也在升温，其股价在过去一年累计上涨88%，成为中国AI相关公司中备受关注的标的之一。 在大模型 "参数竞赛"逐渐降温之后，资本市场开始更关心一个问题：哪些AI能力，已经真正走向产品化，并且能跑通商业闭环？ 随着生成式文本、图像和 视频技术逐步成熟，市场的关注点正在从模型性能，转向这些能力是否具备规模化应用和稳定变现的可能性。 过去一年，全球 AI竞争的焦点正在悄然发生变化。 在采访中，盖坤多次强调 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses a significant dialogue led by Elon Musk at Tesla's Giga Factory in Austin, Texas, focusing on the imminent arrival of the "technological singularity" and the transformative impact of AI and robotics on society [3][4]. Group 1: Predictions on AGI and Technological Singularity - Musk predicts that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will be achieved by 2026, with AI's total intelligence surpassing that of all humanity by 2030 [5][6]. - He describes the current state as being within a "supersonic tsunami" of change, indicating that the process of technological transformation is irreversible [5][6]. - Musk emphasizes that the transition will lead to a significant reshaping of human roles, where humans may become mere "biological bootloaders" for digital superintelligence [4][6]. Group 2: Impact on Employment and Society - The transition period of 3 to 7 years is expected to be tumultuous, particularly affecting white-collar jobs, as AI can already perform over half of these roles [7][8]. - Musk foresees a "universal high income" (UHI) model emerging, where the abundance of goods and services will lead to a new economic paradigm, contrasting with traditional universal basic income (UBI) [9][10]. - He warns that this abundance will be accompanied by social unrest, as society grapples with the implications of a world where work is no longer a measure of value [11]. Group 3: Energy Competition and Global Dynamics - Musk praises China's efficiency in solar energy deployment, stating that by 2026, China's electricity output will be three times that of the U.S., positioning it as a leader in AI computing power [12]. - He argues that the future currency will be "wattage," emphasizing the need for the U.S. to enhance its energy generation capabilities to compete effectively [12]. Group 4: Space and AI Infrastructure - Musk outlines plans for orbital data centers, leveraging the Starship's capabilities to reduce launch costs below $100 per kilogram, which would enable large-scale AI computing in space [13]. - He envisions a future where solar energy in space can provide continuous power for AI operations, potentially leading to a self-evolving "Dyson swarm" [13]. Group 5: AI Safety Principles - Musk proposes three core principles for AI safety: truth, curiosity, and beauty, arguing that these will help prevent AI from becoming harmful to humanity [15]. - He stresses the importance of ensuring that AI remains curious about humans and does not resort to deception, which could lead to adverse outcomes [15].

Core Viewpoint - The storage sector, seen as the "AI working memory," is undergoing an unprecedented value reassessment as the AI wave shifts from training to large-scale inference applications [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - U.S. stock market storage concept stocks surged, with SanDisk rising by 27.56%, Western Digital by 16.77%, and Seagate by 14.00%, following NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's remarks at CES about the untapped storage market [2] - Huang emphasized that the storage market could become the largest globally, essential for supporting AI's working memory, and NVIDIA showcased a new storage platform promising five times the efficiency of traditional platforms [2] - Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Wamsi Mohan noted that 2026 will be a turning point for enterprise and edge AI, with exponential data generation driving hardware spending cycles [2][3] Group 2: Data Explosion and Storage Needs - IDC forecasts global annual data generation will soar from 173 ZB in 2024 to 527 ZB by 2029, a more than twofold increase with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 25% [5] - The rise of multimodal AI, which processes and generates unstructured data like images and videos, necessitates significant storage capacity and speed, transforming storage from a passive tool to an active participant in AI workflows [7] Group 3: Opportunities for HDD and SSD Manufacturers - Mechanical hard drives (HDDs) maintain an irreplaceable position in mass data storage due to cost advantages and capacity density, with increased demand from multimodal AI driving HDD shipments and pushing customers towards higher-capacity drives [9] - Seagate and Western Digital are positioned to benefit from this trend, with technologies like Seagate's HAMR and Western Digital's UltraSMR aimed at maximizing single-disk capacity and efficiency [11] - The demand for high-performance SSDs is rising as modern AI systems require extensive random I/O and write operations for tasks like storing prompts and feedback labels [11] Group 4: Edge AI and Flash Storage - Edge AI is rapidly penetrating devices like smartphones and PCs, creating a significant growth opportunity for companies like SanDisk, which specializes in high-performance flash storage [10][14] - The need for low-latency and high-reliability storage in edge AI applications is driving a shift from low-end to high-performance UFS and NVMe interfaces [14] - Major players like Apple, Dell, and HP are expected to benefit from the demand for "AI PCs," with Gartner predicting that AI PCs will account for 43% of all PC shipments by 2025 [14] Group 5: Price Trends and Market Outlook - The surge in demand for storage, coupled with supply constraints, is driving prices up, with reports indicating that Samsung and SK Hynix are seeking to raise server DRAM prices by 60% to 70% in Q1 [12] - The IT industry is entering a "hardware renaissance," with hardware spending as a growing revenue share since 2022, benefiting not only NVIDIA but also storage manufacturers and connectivity providers [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of continuing a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth and stabilize financial markets, while also enhancing financial services and risk management [3][8]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The central bank will maintain a flexible and efficient use of various monetary policy tools, such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, to ensure ample liquidity and relatively loose financing conditions [1][9]. - A structural monetary policy tool system will be improved, including the development of a "technology board" in the bond market to support capital market growth [2][9]. - The central bank aims to keep the social financing scale and money supply growth aligned with economic growth and price level expectations, ensuring a stable RMB exchange rate [9][10]. Group 2: Financial Services and Support - Financial services will be enhanced to support high-quality economic development, with a focus on improving the financial policy framework and evaluation systems [9][10]. - The central bank will optimize financial support for key areas such as technology innovation, small and micro enterprises, and consumer services, while also increasing the issuance of technology innovation bonds [5][9]. - A one-time personal credit repair policy will be implemented to assist individuals in rebuilding their credit efficiently [7][10]. Group 3: Risk Management - The central bank will continue to address debt risks associated with financing platforms and will promote the orderly exit of these platforms [10]. - Financial market monitoring and regulatory enforcement will be strengthened to combat illegal activities and ensure market stability [6][10]. - A macro-prudential management and financial stability framework will be further developed to enhance risk identification and early correction capabilities [10][11]. Group 4: Financial Reform and Opening Up - The central bank will deepen financial reform and promote a higher level of openness in financial markets, including optimizing mechanisms for bond and currency swaps [10][11]. - Efforts will be made to enhance cross-border financial services and facilitate the use of RMB in international trade and investment [11][12]. - The central bank will actively participate in global financial governance reforms and strengthen cooperation with international financial organizations [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the role of Zhejiang Commercial Bank in promoting financial services that support both technological innovation and rural development, showcasing its commitment to "finance for the people" and aligning with national strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Technological Finance - Zhejiang Commercial Bank has significantly contributed to the growth of small and micro enterprises, serving over 500,000 clients and increasing loan issuance by 133% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2]. - The bank has developed a unique credit evaluation system tailored to the characteristics of technology companies, moving away from traditional collateral-based assessments [3][6]. - The case of Wuhan Heyuan Biotechnology Co., Ltd. illustrates the bank's innovative approach, providing critical funding of 5 million yuan to support its research and development efforts [5][6]. - The bank's "Talent Bank" initiative focuses on evaluating companies based on their human resources and technology rather than physical assets, enabling timely financial support [6][8]. Group 2: Inclusive Finance - Zhejiang Commercial Bank has extended its financial services to rural areas, exemplified by the transformation of Taohou Village from poverty to a model of shared prosperity [9][13]. - The bank implemented the "3386 model" to tailor financial services to local resources and industry characteristics, facilitating access to loans without collateral [11][13]. - The successful case of a couple starting a guesthouse in Taohou Village highlights the bank's role in providing 500,000 yuan in loans, which helped them overcome initial financial challenges [11][13]. - The bank has served 800,000 small micro enterprises and issued over 3 trillion yuan in loans, demonstrating its commitment to inclusive finance and rural revitalization [13][15].

Core Insights - The main investment narrative for 2025 is not the strong performance of the US stock market, but rather the significant changes in currency values and the global shift in asset allocation, with gold emerging as the true winner [1][5][12]. Currency Value Changes - The US dollar has depreciated significantly against other currencies, with declines of 13% against the Swiss franc, 12% against the euro, and 4% against the Chinese yuan. This depreciation creates an illusion of asset appreciation when measured in local currency [6][12]. - Gold has established itself as a major reserve asset, taking on the role of the second-largest reserve currency, highlighting the critical impact of currency movements on wealth transfer [6][12]. Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 index recorded an 18% total return in USD, driven by a 12% increase in earnings and a 5% rise in price-to-earnings ratios. However, when measured in stronger currencies, the performance appears significantly weaker [8][15]. - The "Seven Giants" within the S&P 500 saw a 22% earnings growth, while the remaining 493 stocks experienced a 9% growth, indicating a disparity in profit distribution favoring capital owners over workers [8][15]. Global Market Dynamics - Non-US markets, including Europe, China, and Japan, outperformed US stocks, with emerging markets showing an overall return of 34%. This reflects a significant capital shift away from US assets [5][14]. - The interest of foreign investors in US dollar-denominated assets is declining, leading to a preference for non-US equities and bonds [6][14]. Political and Geopolitical Factors - The political landscape is shifting from multilateralism to unilateralism, increasing military spending and sanctions, which diminishes the attractiveness of US dollar assets [10][25]. - The growing wealth gap, exacerbated by inflation, is likely to lead to political unrest and conflict between left and right factions in the US, impacting market stability [10][20]. Non-Liquid Markets - Non-liquid markets such as venture capital, private equity, and real estate are under pressure, facing significant debt rollover challenges and a potential rise in liquidity premiums [9][19]. - The current low liquidity premium may lead to a decline in the value of non-liquid assets compared to liquid ones, posing risks for investors [9][19].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' strategist team has issued a strong bullish signal for Chinese assets, recommending investors to "overweight" Chinese stocks, predicting a robust bull market in 2026 and 2027 driven by corporate profit growth and valuation recovery, with an expected annual increase of 15% to 20% [1][3]. Group 1: Profit Recovery and Valuation Reassessment - The core viewpoint of Goldman Sachs is based on expectations of substantial improvement in corporate fundamentals, with profit growth rates projected at 14% and 12% for 2026 and 2027 respectively, alongside an anticipated 10% valuation uplift [3][4]. - Key factors driving profit acceleration include the widespread application of AI technology, the trend of Chinese companies "going global," and policy measures aimed at curbing disorderly competition, referred to as "anti-involution" actions [3][4]. - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the current valuation levels of Chinese markets do not fully reflect their growth potential, suggesting that improved investor sentiment and capital reallocation will lead to significant valuation reassessment [4]. Group 2: Export Structure Optimization and "Going Global" Dividend - Despite a complex external trade environment, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about the competitiveness of China's export sector, which is a crucial rationale for its positive outlook on Chinese listed companies [6]. - The report highlights that Chinese exporters have successfully diversified their markets, with emerging markets becoming significant growth points, and the shift from simple product exports to globalized layouts, including increased exports of intermediate and capital goods [6][7]. - It is projected that export volumes will maintain an annual growth rate of 5-6% in the coming years, providing direct performance support for related listed companies [7]. Group 3: Policy Easing and Liquidity Environment - Goldman Sachs anticipates a relatively loose monetary policy environment in China, which will benefit stock market performance, predicting two 10 basis point cuts in policy interest rates by the central bank in 2026 [9]. - The report forecasts that the central bank will maintain ample interbank liquidity to support economic growth and government bond issuance, leading to a decline in short-term interest rates, with the 7-day reverse repo rate expected to drop from 1.4% to around 1.2% by the end of 2026 [9]. - The expansionary fiscal policy, with an anticipated increase in the broad fiscal deficit, will also provide support for the real economy and market sentiment [9]. Group 4: Attractiveness of Renminbi Assets and Currency Appreciation - Beyond the potential for stock market gains, currency factors may provide additional returns for foreign investors holding Chinese assets, with the Renminbi currently undervalued by approximately 25% against the US dollar [10][12]. - The report predicts that the Renminbi will gradually appreciate to 6.85 against the US dollar within the next 12 months, supported by strong export growth and trade surpluses, with China's goods trade surplus expected to expand to $1.4 trillion by 2026 [10][12]. - An increase in the current account surplus, easing US-China trade tensions, and policy support for the internationalization of the Renminbi will further bolster the currency's strength, enhancing total returns for international investors denominated in US dollars [12].

Core Insights - NVIDIA has announced the full production of the Vera Rubin platform, which weighs nearly 2 tons and integrates six new chips, significantly enhancing inference cost and training efficiency, achieving AI computations at a trillion operations per second, marking it as a true AI factory [2] - The company has also open-sourced its first inference VLA (Vision-Language-Action) model, Alpamayo 1, designed for vehicles to "think" and solve problems in unexpected situations, utilizing a 10 billion parameter architecture [3] - The first vehicles equipped with NVIDIA technology are set to hit the roads in the US in Q1, Europe in Q2, and Asia later in the year [4][17] Production and Performance - The new Rubin platform has a performance increase of 5 times compared to the previous Blackwell version, with training performance being 3.5 times better [5][8] - The Rubin platform can reduce inference token generation costs by up to 10 times and decrease the number of GPUs required for training mixture of experts models by 4 times [8] - The Vera CPU in the Rubin platform features 88 cores, providing double the performance of its predecessor, and is designed for agent inference, making it the most energy-efficient processor in large-scale AI factories [8] Ecosystem and Deployment - Major cloud providers, including Microsoft, are expected to be among the first to deploy the new hardware in the second half of the year, with Microsoft’s next-generation Fairwater AI super factory set to utilize NVIDIA's Vera Rubin NVL72 systems [6] - NVIDIA maintains a long-term bullish outlook, predicting the total market size could reach several trillion dollars despite concerns about increasing competition and sustainability of AI spending [7] Innovations and Technologies - The Rubin platform incorporates five innovative technologies, including the sixth-generation NVLink interconnect technology and a third-generation transformer engine, which provides 50 petaflops of NVFP4 computing power for AI inference [9] - The platform's modular design allows for faster assembly and maintenance, with an 18 times quicker process compared to Blackwell [9] Open Source Initiatives - NVIDIA has released the Alpamayo model as part of a complete open ecosystem for autonomous driving development, which includes simulation frameworks and datasets [14][21] - The Alpamayo model is designed for the autonomous driving research community, allowing developers to adapt it for vehicle development and as a foundational tool for autonomous driving technology [15][18] - NVIDIA has also launched various open-source models and tools across different sectors, including the Nemotron family for agent AI and the Cosmos platform for physical AI [26][27]

随着马斯克明确给出脑机接口设备的量产时间表，这一前沿赛道正从实验室的科学探索加速走向商业化落地，行业或将迎来从"医疗试验品"向"大众消费品"跨越 的关键转折点。 2026年A股开盘首日，脑机接口板块表现强势。倍益康30CM涨停，三博脑科、翔宇医疗、美好医疗、爱朋医疗、诚益通、伟思医疗等多股20CM涨停，市场资 金对脑机接口商业化前景展现出极高预期。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 涨跌 | 换手率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 688108 | 赛诺医疗 | 23.09 | 20.01% | 3.85 | 14.83% | | 300238 | 元 | 16.62 | 20.00% | 2.77 | 13.53% | | 300753 | 爱朋医疗 | 33.30 | 20.00% | 5.55 | 21.10% | | 301363 | 美好医疗 | 28.86 | 20.00% | 4.81 | 1.93% | | 688626 | 翔宇医疗 | 72.60 | 20.00% | 12.10 | 3.36% | | 300003 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid growth and potential of "manga dramas" (漫剧), a new form of animated short series that is gaining popularity among young audiences, particularly on platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou. This trend is seen as a significant shift from traditional live-action short dramas, with projections indicating a market size that could exceed 20 billion yuan in the near future [4][6][27]. Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - The popularity of manga dramas is reflected in Douyin's data, which shows that in October 2025, the platform's manga dramas surpassed 6.1 billion views, with several series achieving over 100 million views each [6][27]. - The total number of manga dramas launched in the first half of 2025 reached 3,000, with a monthly compound growth rate of 83%, and revenue growth saw a 12-fold increase [6][27]. - Multiple brokerages predict that the annual market size for manga dramas could exceed 20 billion yuan, potentially reaching one-third of the revenue generated by live-action short dramas [6][27]. Group 2: Industry Participation and Competition - Major internet companies, including traditional long-video platforms like iQIYI and Bilibili, as well as short-video platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou, are entering the manga drama space, indicating a competitive landscape [6][27]. - Douyin has introduced incentive policies for manga drama creators, offering guaranteed payments and revenue sharing that can reach up to 30,000 yuan per minute for top-performing works [9][28]. - The entry of various players into the manga drama market is driven by the desire to capture user engagement and leverage AI technology to reduce production costs and enhance content diversity [28][29]. Group 3: Technological Impact - The integration of AI in the production of manga dramas has significantly lowered the barriers to entry for creators, allowing for faster and more cost-effective content creation [9][24]. - AI tools have enabled teams to produce high-quality manga dramas at a fraction of the traditional costs, with production times reduced to 10-13 days and costs ranging from 1,000 to 2,500 yuan per minute [24][26]. - The current production model allows for a more diverse range of content, appealing to a broader audience, particularly young males aged 18-30, who make up over 60% of the viewership [30][32]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Challenges - The future of manga dramas is seen as promising, with the potential to fill gaps in the male-oriented content market and attract younger viewers through innovative storytelling and visual presentation [32][33]. - However, industry analysts caution that the focus should remain on content innovation rather than solely on technological advancements, to avoid a race to the bottom in production quality [33].