作者郑嘉意 编辑松壑 行至下半场的社保卡"抢户大战"，激烈度骤然上升。 自2021年第三代社保卡进入全国推广阶段，上到国股行、下至城农商行，已全面打响开户竞赛，通过预约、优惠、赠送权益等多种方式锁定客户； 各行"自掏腰包"补贴的意图，则在于通过民生入口获取低成本负债资金、拓展业务场景。 来自四年前的硝烟，直到2025年仍未消散。 以下文章来源于信风TradeWind ，作者郑嘉意 信风TradeWind . 关注资本市场的趋势与发展 一位国有大行华北地区分行网点负责人对信风表示，新卡功能多、更换便利，业务高峰期进展顺利。 "虽然头上有KPI，但二代卡集中到期，新卡功能又好，通知后用户主动来办理的比较多。"该负责人表示，"我们当地的居民基本已经在前两年完成换卡。" 另一位国有大行华南地区员工对信风证实，"换卡业务不难做。" 其表示"我们行和特别多社区都有合作，轮岗的时候都会有居民主动来办理。" 以苏州地区为例。 今年5月，北京人社局启动第三代社保卡第三批集中换发，面向东城区、朝阳区、门头沟区和密云区四个区的参保单位，涉及在职职工300余万人 ； 几乎同期，以 工、农、中、建、交、邮储六大行北京分行为代表的多家银 ...

一季度，即时零售 赛道正在 陷入了一场" 多快省 "的缠斗，而叮咚买菜却在这场贴身肉搏战中意外 地开辟出第二战场。 先来看看叮咚买菜一季度成绩单： 区域优势再放大 叮咚买菜目前 的目标是吸引和留住对商品品质和服务有更高要求的用户群体。简单来说，就是那些对 生活品质有追求的 "好用户"。 从区域表现来看，上海区域 GMV同比增长5.0%，浙江区域和江苏区域则分别同比增长17.8%和 13.9%。温州、湖州、南通、金华等城市，实现了超过50%的同比增长，此外，值得一提的是广深 区域的惠州和佛山也实现了同比40%以上增长。 叮咚买菜一季度 GMV同比增长7.9%至59.6亿元，收入增长9.1%至54.8亿元，连续5个季度保 持营收正向增长； Non-GAAP标准下实现净利润0.3亿元，连续10个季度盈利的纪录持续刷新，期末现金储备达 42.9亿元。 第一季度 ，平台订单总量同比跃升 12.1%，表明平台的用户活跃度和购买频次持续提升； 日均活跃用户数（ DAU）也实现了稳健增长，超过200万，同比增长4.5% ； 同时，日均下单用户数从 74万升至83万（+11.1%）； 用户转化率从 61.6%跃升至64%，意味 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Labubu 3.0 series from Pop Mart is experiencing significant popularity in the global market, particularly in the US and Europe, driven by celebrity endorsements and social media engagement [1][2][3]. Sales Performance - In April, sales in the US and EU markets increased approximately 8 times and 5 times year-on-year, respectively, indicating the successful penetration of Labubu 3.0 in these regions [3][4]. - Online sales through e-commerce platforms in China saw a year-on-year growth of 287% in April, with significant contributions from platforms like Tmall, JD, and Douyin [5]. Social Media and Brand Influence - Pop Mart's TikTok followers in the US grew from 431,200 in March to 722,900 in April, marking a 68% increase, and the brand ranked first in TikTok retail sales in April [4]. - The Labubu 3.0 series is increasingly being used as a fashion accessory by celebrities and KOLs, enhancing its appeal in the fashion sector [1][2]. Retail Expansion - Pop Mart plans to open 110 new retail stores overseas and 20 in the domestic market, aiming for a total of approximately 650 stores by the end of 2025 [5][8]. - The company has opened 14 new retail stores this year, focusing on landmark and cultural locations to provide immersive experiences for consumers [4]. Financial Projections - According to Bank of America, Pop Mart's revenue is expected to reach HKD 22.601 billion and net profit HKD 6.5 billion by 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 91% [8]. - The current stock price of Pop Mart is around HKD 207, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 42.42 times for 2025, which is considered attractive given the company's growth prospects [8][7].

Core Viewpoint - The outdoor sports market has seen significant growth, with brands like PELLIOt (伯希和) capitalizing on this trend, achieving over 50% year-on-year sales growth during the recent e-commerce promotion period [1][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - PELLIOt was founded in 2012 by Liu Zhen and Hua Jingling, targeting the outdoor market from the beginning [3]. - The company has experienced a transformation since the outdoor trend exploded in 2022, with its three-in-one jackets gaining popularity and achieving a compound annual growth rate of 144% in sales [5][6]. - PELLIOt's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is projected to be 379 million, 910 million, and 1.766 billion respectively, with net profits of 24.3 million, 152 million, and 283 million [6]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - PELLIOt has positioned itself as a cost-effective alternative to high-end brands like Arc'teryx, offering similar performance at a significantly lower price [1][11]. - The company has maintained a high gross margin, increasing from 54.3% in 2022 to 59.6% in 2024, and net profit margin from 6.4% to 16% [6]. - The direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales model has been crucial, with online DTC sales accounting for 87.5%, 82.8%, and 76.5% of total sales from 2022 to 2024 [6]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks - PELLIOt faces challenges such as low R&D investment, reliance on a single product category, and difficulties in moving upmarket [2][12]. - The company has a relatively small R&D team, with only 4.5% of its workforce dedicated to this area, which is significantly lower than competitors [11]. - The brand's identity is complicated by naming controversies related to its homage to Paul Pelliot, raising questions about its cultural narrative [14]. Group 4: Future Prospects - PELLIOt is preparing for an IPO, having raised significant funds from various investors, including Tencent, which acquired a 10.7% stake [7][9]. - The company must enhance its operational capabilities and redefine its brand positioning to succeed in the competitive outdoor market [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges facing the U.S. economy, particularly the rising government borrowing costs and the implications of a potential increase in the national debt due to tax cuts and other fiscal policies [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Rising Debt - The U.S. economy is experiencing a second wave of challenges following the resolution of tariff issues, with rising government borrowing costs becoming increasingly evident [1]. - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating has led to a sell-off in U.S. Treasury bonds, causing yields to rise sharply, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching 5.089%, the highest since October 2023 [2]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the Republican tax cuts could increase the deficit to about 7% of GDP, an unprecedented level for a low unemployment economy [2][3]. Group 2: Government and Consumer Borrowing Costs - As Treasury yields rise, the government faces higher interest payments on nearly $29 trillion in debt, potentially leading to increased taxes or reduced government services for citizens [4]. - The high interest rate environment not only affects government finances but also impacts consumers, as borrowing costs for significant purchases like homes and cars are linked to long-term yields [4]. Group 3: Political Stance on Fiscal Policy - There is skepticism regarding whether the Trump administration will make substantial fiscal adjustments, with Republican leaders arguing that the CBO's deficit projections are exaggerated [5]. - Analysts suggest that there will be no significant fiscal tightening in the foreseeable future, and the U.S. is likely to continue running large deficits [5][6]. - The Trump administration's previous promises to address the deficit through efficiency measures have been scaled back, indicating a lack of urgency in tackling the growing debt [6][7].

稳定币兴起正成为市场不容忽视的一大趋势， 美国以及亚洲多个国家和地区纷纷推进稳定币立法，而香港特区率先通过立法，抢占背后的"数字币铸币权"。 5月21日，香港特区立法会三读通过《稳定币条例草案》，标志着 将稳定币这一虚拟资产正式纳入法治监管体系，预计今年底前机构可向金管局申请成为合规 稳定币发行商。 近期稳定币的重要性日益增长， 美国政府也加紧推动稳定币立法， 由于美元地位正受到前所未有的调整，特朗普政府更将其视为巩固美元地位的重要工具。 花旗表示，美国格外看重稳定币对美国国债需求的提振以及对美元霸权的巩固作用。 其实，无论是美国、香港还是欧盟，各主要金融中心都在建立自己的数字货币体系，确保货币在数字金融时代拥有更大货币控制权。 这场"数字铸币权争夺 战"可能才刚刚开始，香港先发制人可能为其赢得竞争优势。 稳定币重要性日益增长，亟待立法打开发展空间 稳定币是一种与法定货币或大宗商品等其他传统资产挂钩的数字货币，可广泛应用于跨境支付、汇款和去中心化金融等领域。根据德银的介绍 ，稳定币主要有 四种类型：法定货币挂钩、资产支持挂钩、加密货币挂钩的和算法型。 稳定币通常被视为传统金融与加密货币之间的桥梁， 它有潜力促 ...

Core Insights - Google is fully embracing AI agents, integrating them into its core services like search and the AI assistant Gemini, aiming to enhance user experience through a new AI mode search [1][27]. Group 1: AI Model Developments - The keynote at Google I/O 2025 showcased advancements in AI, including the Gemini 2.5 Pro model, which is positioned as Google's most powerful general AI model to date [20][23]. - Gemini 2.5 Flash is introduced as a fast and cost-effective AI model suitable for prototyping, enhancing efficiency by using 22% fewer tokens for the same performance [39]. - The Gemini models have seen a significant increase in usage, with monthly token processing growing from 9.7 trillion to 480 trillion, nearly a 50-fold increase [24]. Group 2: AI Features and Tools - The AI Studio has been updated to include a native voice model supporting 24 languages and active audio recognition, enhancing user interaction capabilities [6]. - The new Stitch project allows for automatic generation of app UI designs from text prompts, which can be exported for further development [4][5]. - The Keynote Companion, a virtual assistant named "Casey," can listen for keywords and provide real-time updates, integrating with maps for navigation [10][11]. Group 3: AI Integration in Android - The Androidify app uses selfies and Gemini models to create personalized Android robot avatars, showcasing the integration of AI in user personalization [14]. - The new UI system, Material 3 Expressive, enhances user interface engagement with playful design elements [17]. - Android 16 introduces features like live updates and performance optimization tools, supporting a broader range of devices [18]. Group 4: AI in Search and Browsing - Google is launching an AI mode in its search function, allowing users to ask complex queries and receive structured answers, enhancing the search experience [47][48]. - The AI mode supports multi-turn conversations and generates rich, visual responses, redefining how users interact with search [49][50]. Group 5: Subscription and Pricing - Google has introduced a new subscription package, Google AI Ultra, priced at $249.99 per month, offering access to advanced models and features, including 30 TB of storage [62][63]. - This package includes various AI tools and services, enhancing user capabilities across Google applications [64].

要使超长期债券的需求反弹，市场需要获得更大的保证，即将减少新债券的发行，这在本财年内在技 术上是可能的。 此前周二，日本财务省周20年期国债拍卖录得灾难性结果。投标倍数仅为2.5倍，远低于上月的2.96 倍，创下自2012年以来的最低水平。尾差（Auction Tail，即平均价格与最低接受价格之间的差距）从4 月份的0.34飙升至1.14，为1987年以来最高水平。 市场需求极为低迷，买家基本不愿意接盘长期国债 。 在经历周二债市大幅波动后，日本超长期债券周三几乎没有得到任何喘息的机会。 日本债券市场连续第二天无人出价，30年期和 40 年期日本国债收益率均创下历史新高。 20年期日本国债收益率一度上涨1.5个基点至2.57%，创下自2000年10月以来的最高水平。这一收益率 在周二跃升了令人震惊的15个基点。 同时，30年期收益率下跌1.5个基点至3.110%，较其创纪录的3.14%略有回落，而40年期收益率则在触 及周二3.6%的历史峰值后保持在3.595%不变。 Okasan Securities首席债券策略师Naoya Hasegawa警告： 分析认为， 市场情绪在未来几周内可能继续承压，因为30年 ...

随着特朗普税改法案引发美国债务和赤字担忧升级，交易员正大举押注10年期美债收益率将飙至5%。 据彭博报道，交易员正大规模押注长期美债收益率将因美国政府不断膨胀的债务和赤字担忧而飙升，而 特朗普的减税法案使这一局面变得更加危险。 报道称，包括高盛和摩根大通在内的华尔街策略师正在上调他们的收益率预测。其中，押注10年期美债 收益率将达到5%的头寸规模最大。 CME的未平仓合约数据显示，市场出现了大规模押注十年期美债收益率在未来几周内攀升至5%的期权 交易，金额规模高达1100万美元。 评级下调引发恐慌，30年期美债收益率触及5%关口 周一，30年期美债收益率短暂突破5%，达到自2023年11月以来的最高水平，随后回落。 交易员正支付越来越多的费用来对冲曲线长端的抛售， 与周一美国30年期国债收益率突破5%水平以及 最近美国国债收益率曲线陡峭化的走势相符。长期债券合约中看跌期权的偏斜度现已达到约一个月来的 最高水平。 截至5月13日的一周，CFTC数据显示， 资产管理公司清算了大量多头头寸，对冲基金则平仓了空头头 寸。 ⭐星标华尔街见闻，好内容不错过 ⭐ 摩根大通的策略师Jay Barry和Jason Hunter ...

Core Viewpoint - Labubu is rapidly emerging as a new generation of super IP, surpassing Hello Kitty in search popularity, with significant sales growth potential projected from 3 billion RMB in 2024 to 14 billion RMB by 2027 [3][8]. Comparison of IPs - Labubu and Hello Kitty share similarities in character style and business model, with Labubu being a newer IP launched in 2015, while Hello Kitty debuted in 1974 [4][5]. - Labubu's merchandise includes blind boxes and plush toys, while Hello Kitty has a broader range of products through extensive licensing [5][6]. - Labubu's search interest has shown exponential growth, particularly in Southeast Asia, Mexico, and Spain, indicating a rising global brand influence [5][6]. Market Performance - Hello Kitty has achieved cumulative retail sales of 8.45 billion USD, while Labubu's sales reached 3 billion RMB in 2024 [7][8]. - Labubu's growth rate is outpacing that of Hello Kitty during its early years, showcasing its market potential [8]. Factors Contributing to Labubu's Success - Product innovation through unique materials that differentiate Labubu from other IPs [10]. - Celebrity endorsements and social media presence have boosted Labubu's visibility [11]. - Strategic marketing campaigns, including collaborations with tourism authorities, have generated significant buzz [12]. - Pop Mart's substantial investments in theme parks and retail stores are enhancing Labubu's market presence [13]. Future Growth Engines - The Monsters series, which includes Labubu, is expected to contribute 27% of the group's annual revenue by 2027 [15]. - New IPs like Molly and Crybaby are projected to exceed 5 billion RMB in sales [15]. - The traditional blind box category will remain significant, but other product categories, including plush toys and MEGA figures, are expected to increase their sales contributions [15]. - AI toys are anticipated to become a new trend in the toy industry, with Pop Mart positioned to lead this innovation [15].