Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming launch of futures contracts for offset printing paper, indicating a significant development in the paper trading market [3][10]. - Offset printing paper is categorized as cultural paper, specifically non-coated paper, with double offset paper being a common type [4][5]. - The production process of double offset paper involves several stages, including pulping, paper making, sizing, and treatment, with variations depending on whether the pulp is self-produced or purchased [5][6]. Group 2 - The cost structure of double offset paper shows that wood pulp accounts for 70%-75% of the total cost, while chemical additives and energy costs make up smaller portions [8]. - The article outlines the characteristics of deliverable products, including weight, size, and brightness, with specific grades set for futures contracts [10][12]. - The quality standards for deliverable double offset paper are defined, including parameters such as thickness, opacity, and tensile strength, which must meet or exceed national standards [13][14]. Group 3 - Current market prices for various brands of double offset paper are provided, indicating a range of prices from 4750 to 5270 [15]. - The article emphasizes that the futures market price may initially align with the prices of deliverable products, particularly in a market where supply exceeds demand [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trading situation and strategies for pure benzene futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, highlighting the initial trading performance and market dynamics following the listing of the contracts [2][3][4]. Group 1: Trading Situation - Pure benzene futures were listed on July 8, 2025, with the initial contracts priced at 5900 CNY/ton, closely aligning with the prevailing spot prices in East China [2]. - The opening prices for the contracts BZ2603, BZ2604, BZ2605, and BZ2606 were 5900 CNY/ton, 5950 CNY/ton, 6050 CNY/ton, and 5900 CNY/ton respectively, indicating a contango structure in the forward curve [3]. - The main contract BZ2603 recorded a trading volume of 24,865 lots and a closing price of 5931 CNY/ton, which is 31 CNY/ton higher than the listing price [3]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - The article suggests a short-term bullish outlook for pure benzene due to low valuations and support from rising oil prices, while recommending a cautious approach for potential short-selling opportunities in the third quarter [4]. - The contango structure observed in the opening prices reflects the current inventory accumulation, but there is an expectation for a reversal in the curve as the market approaches the third quarter [6]. - For cross-commodity arbitrage, the article notes that the processing margin for styrene is currently low, indicating limited arbitrage opportunities, but suggests monitoring for potential upward corrections if margins fall below 100 CNY/ton [10]. Group 3: Price Dynamics - The article highlights that the PX price is currently weak, while benzene prices have shown slight increases, leading to a narrowing PX-BZ price spread [13]. - The anticipated improvement in PX market supply and demand dynamics suggests a potential for long positions in the PX-BZ spread as the market approaches peak demand seasons [13].

Core Viewpoints - The market is currently trading on expectations of supply-side regulation, with strong policies leading to price increases from silicon material manufacturers, which in turn amplifies bullish sentiment. Confidence in the current round of supply-side regulation is expected to continue, with anticipated actions such as capacity mergers, elimination of outdated capacity, and regulation of low-priced products [1] - Despite the bullish sentiment, there are concerns regarding weak realities, as increased production from major manufacturers in July and continued supply pressure in August may lead to a return to inventory accumulation for polysilicon in the second half of the year. The bargaining power remains with downstream players, creating uncertainty about whether they can accept price increases from silicon manufacturers [1] - A strategy focusing on cross-commodity hedging is recommended, as additional bullish stimuli are needed for polysilicon futures to continue rising. The current market does not show fundamental improvements or confirmation of timing, suggesting that single-direction strategies may carry increased volatility risks [1] Supply Capacity Dynamics - As of now, China's nominal polysilicon capacity stands at 3.084 million tons, with an additional planned capacity of 2.188 million tons. Various projects are experiencing delays, such as the 100,000-ton output from Hongli in Qinghai, which is expected in mid-July, while other projects have been postponed [3] - The global polysilicon production for July is projected at 109,100 tons, reflecting an 11.94% quarter-on-quarter increase. However, there are no significant recovery actions observed in Xinjiang's production capacity, and the overall supply pressure is expected to persist [3] Market Feedback and Price Trends - The polysilicon market is under pressure due to increased supply and reduced production from downstream sectors, leading to a forecast of inventory accumulation in the second half of 2025. Current inventory levels are expected to rise to 4-5 months [3] - In July, the global silicon wafer production was reported at 51.84 GW, a decrease of 10.98% quarter-on-quarter, with prices for various types of silicon wafers showing declines [5] - The battery cell production for July is estimated at 57.12 GW, with inventory levels rising rapidly due to weakened demand. The price for battery cells has also decreased, indicating ongoing market challenges [5] Future Projections - The global photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 579.17 GW in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.28%. However, the Chinese market is projected to see a decline in new installations due to demand being pulled forward earlier in the year [5] - The European market shows signs of recovery, with an expected annual installation of 70.65 GW, while the U.S. market is anticipated to face challenges due to policy changes affecting new installations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying investment opportunities in commodities during extreme market emotions and highlights the need for a nuanced understanding of market dynamics and pricing mechanisms [3]. Group 1: Commodity Selection Framework - The framework for selecting commodities based on the "anti-involution" theme includes four key indicators: industry loss cycles, capacity utilization rate declines, risk factors from past market conditions, and the concentration of leading players [4][5]. - Significant categories identified for investment include industries with notable losses such as PVC, stainless steel, and polysilicon, as well as sectors with concentrated market shares like PTA, asphalt, and soda ash [5]. Group 2: Pricing Logic of Anti-Involution Rebound - The pricing logic surrounding the rebound from anti-involution suggests that punitive pricing strategies may alleviate market pessimism regarding deflation [6]. - The trend of local state-owned assets frequently acquiring listed companies is noted, indicating a potential increase in state-owned components within manufacturing sectors [6]. Group 3: Plant Oil Pricing Dynamics - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. biofuel policy on plant oil pricing, highlighting the government's support for the sector and its implications for agricultural resilience [7]. - Key factors influencing plant oil pricing include the trajectory of crude oil prices and the production rates from Malaysia and Indonesia during the seasonal increase [7][8]. Group 4: OPEC+ Production Risks - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production significantly, with plans to raise daily output by 548,000 barrels in August, exceeding market expectations [12][15]. - The organization is set to complete the unwinding of a voluntary production cut of 2.17 million barrels per day, which may lead to deeper oversupply pressures in the oil market [15]. Group 5: Market Resilience of Caustic Soda - The resilience of caustic soda prices is attributed to the decline in liquid chlorine prices, which has raised production costs for caustic soda [17]. - A potential increase in demand for alumina could further support caustic soda prices, presenting a bullish outlook for this commodity [17]. Group 6: Long-term Commodity Price Trends - The article highlights the debate between being a path trader versus a terminal trader in commodity markets, emphasizing the need for a deep understanding of core pricing logic [18]. - Current economic conditions show a lack of significant technological advancements to drive growth, alongside constraints on fiscal policy, leading to a mid-term outlook of price fluctuations in commodities [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the short-term fluctuations and long-term bearish outlook for pure benzene prices, influenced by crude oil prices and supply-demand dynamics [3][4]. Group 1: Cost and Price Dynamics - The long-term price trend of pure benzene is closely aligned with crude oil prices, which are expected to be under pressure due to OPEC+ plans to increase production, offsetting seasonal consumption improvements in Q3 [4]. - The cost and supply-demand factors are expected to exhibit mixed signals in Q3, leading to potential price fluctuations [13]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - High import volumes of pure benzene remain a significant bearish factor for supply, although domestic refinery maintenance may lead to a seasonal decline in domestic production [7]. - Q3 is anticipated to see a temporary improvement in supply-demand dynamics due to the peak demand season, but Q4 is expected to witness a gradual weakening in demand [9]. - Overall, while there may be a short-term improvement in supply-demand in Q3, the outlook for Q4 suggests increased supply and weakened demand, putting pressure on pure benzene prices [11]. Group 3: Strategic Outlook - The strategy suggests a short-term focus on fluctuations with a long-term bearish stance, recommending to sell on highs [15]. - For cross-product strategies, locking in styrene processing margins above 800 RMB/ton is advised, along with a recommendation to buy pure benzene and sell styrene on highs [16]. - The PX-BZ spread indicates that while PX valuations are currently under pressure due to weak demand, there is potential for PX valuations to strengthen in late Q3, suggesting a buy on PX and sell on pure benzene [17].

摘要： 上周宏观一波三折。但主要是美国就业市场的波动在主导市场。周中 ADP新增就业人数意外下降，降息显著增加、利率下行，周后期非农 就业人数却超预期强劲，失业率下降至4.1%，市场对降息预期又立刻反转。在降息预期来回摇摆的情况下，金铜价格也缺乏明显的趋势性指 引。 核心观点 1、上周贵金属偏强震荡，铜价有所回落 贵金属方面，上周 COMEX 黄金上涨 1.8%，白银 上涨 2.68%；沪金2510合约 上涨 1 .1%，沪银2508 合约上涨 1.44%。 主要工业金属价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动-1.16%、-0.24%。 2、宏观一波三折，铜价冲高回落 周初 FT报道贝森特关于美国关税的最新言论，其中提到有限国别关税、其次行业关税。市场理解为针对铜的232调查可能推 迟到9、10月份进行，铜价明显拉涨，随后中国方面明确提出过剩行业反内卷，工业品全线上行，对铜价带来提振。周中ADP 新增就业人数意外下降，降息显著增加、利率下行，铜价应声继续反弹，周后期非农就业人数却超预期强劲，失业率下降至 4.1%，市场对降息预期又立刻反转，铜价承压回落。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Financial Committee meeting emphasized the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, guide companies to improve product quality, and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity. This policy signal has led to a noticeable recovery in the sentiment of the bulk commodity market, with some investors anticipating market benefits similar to those from the supply-side structural reforms of 2016 [3][4]. Policy Impact Analysis - Different periods may have varying policy focuses, necessitating an in-depth analysis of the core impact range of policies. Attention should be directed towards industries with severe overcapacity, widespread losses, high proportions of outdated capacity, and strong policy constraints [4]. - Industries such as polysilicon, industrial silicon, and PVC currently exhibit persistently low profit levels, aligning with the main objectives of policy regulation. The sustainability of profit improvement in these industries hinges on the enforcement strength of policies and the effectiveness of actual capacity clearance [4][5]. Historical Context - The aluminum industry serves as an example where strong policy constraints successfully led to sustained profit improvements during the last capacity reduction phase. Historical experience indicates that there is a certain lag between policy issuance and market rebound, ultimately relying on strict enforcement to achieve profit redistribution within the industry chain [4]. Current Industry Status - Leading companies in industries like polysilicon are beginning to formulate capacity optimization plans. However, due to differences in company nature, interest conflicts, and market constraints, the realization of substantial capacity clearance in the industry will require more time for validation [5]. Profit and Capacity Overview - A summary of key indicators for various bulk commodities, including profit levels, capacity concentration, and the nature of enterprises, has been compiled for reference [6]. - For example, the profit margins and capacity concentration for several commodities are as follows: - PVC: -13% profit margin, 40% capacity concentration, state-owned enterprises [9] - Polysilicon: -13.5% profit margin, 82.23% capacity concentration, private enterprises [10] - Urea: 20% profit margin, 28% capacity concentration, state-owned enterprises [9] - Copper products show varying profit margins, with electrolytic copper at 0.31% and lithium battery copper foil at 26.07% [10].

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者邵翔 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 邵翔 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 昨晚的数据和市场表明，"心理建设"做得好，数据冲击变成"宝" ？ 前有 ADP数据 明显走弱，后有 WSJ 等媒体强调即使数据超预 期、就业也没有看上去那么好；而6月非农确实也十分"配合"： 有惊喜 ， 相比不足11万新增非农的预期，6月数据表现出极高的韧性 （边际上行至14.7万人），失业率超预期下降； 也卖了"破绽" ， 工时和薪资增长均不及预期。市场表现凸显了"正如预期"的自信甚 至自满，标普、纳指再创新高，美元也企稳反弹。 美元美股若想持续同涨，意味着 市场要放弃对美元资产的"前嫌"，但我们认为当前的条件远远不够成熟 。 美国经济并没有摆脱滞胀 的阴影，债务供需失衡以及美联储的独立性问题都可能成为新的波动之源。尤其是作为脆弱性集中点的美元，我们更倾向于这是继续 下跌之前的阶段性盘整。 对于美联储来说，这是一份相对"令人宽慰"的数据，就业短期风险可控，进一步锁定了美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the coal market, particularly focusing on Mongolian coal and domestic coking coal, highlighting price increases and supply adjustments due to production cuts and seasonal factors [3][5][12]. Group 1: Mongolian Coal Market - Mongolian coal prices have increased from 705 CNY/ton to 740-750 CNY/ton due to supply tightening expectations during the Naadam Festival [3]. - The recent holiday closure of three major ports in Mongolia has contributed to a temporary supply reduction [3]. Group 2: Domestic Coking Coal Production - Domestic coking coal production has seen reductions since May, driven by poor sales at state-owned mines and increased accidents at smaller mines, leading to a notable decrease in visible carbon inventory since mid-June [3][5]. - The reduction in production has started to show effects, with previously hidden inventory being consumed more effectively [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Price Movements - The recent shift in futures market sentiment has led to increased trading activity, with spot market prices for certain coal types rebounding significantly, such as Shanxi's lean coking coal price rising from 930 CNY/ton to 970 CNY/ton [7]. - The price of Australian low-sulfur coking coal has also seen a notable increase, with the index rising by 9.7% to 196.85 [9]. Group 4: Steel Production and Market Expectations - Steel prices remain stable due to the relative weakness of coke and iron ore prices, with daily pig iron production maintaining a high level of 2.42 million tons [10]. - Discussions around "anti-involution" have positively influenced market expectations for future steel profits, suggesting potential upward pressure on both steel and raw material prices [12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that while there is a current upward trend in coking coal prices, caution is advised regarding overly bullish expectations, as sustained high production and inventory replenishment from downstream sectors are necessary for further price increases [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the pure benzene industry, highlighting its production processes, supply chain dynamics, and market trends, particularly focusing on the impact of downstream demand and global trade flows [3][5][17]. Summary by Sections Pure Benzene Overview - Benzene (C6H6) is a colorless, flammable liquid that serves as a fundamental petrochemical raw material, indicating the development level of a country's petrochemical industry [3][12]. Pure Benzene Industry Chain - The main downstream products of pure benzene include styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid, with styrene consumption being the largest but declining in recent years due to real estate market influences [12][16]. Production Process - Pure benzene is produced as a byproduct in various chemical processes, with its output influenced by the profitability of producing other chemicals like PX and the demand for blending oil [16]. Global Capacity and Distribution - Global pure benzene capacity has accelerated, primarily driven by China, with Northeast Asia accounting for nearly half of the total capacity [17][24]. Trade Flows - The global trade flow of pure benzene moves from major production areas to consumption regions, with China, the US, and Europe being the primary consumers [20][41]. Domestic Capacity and Production - By the end of 2024, China's pure benzene capacity is projected to reach 25.73 million tons, with significant capacity additions in 2022 and 2023, although growth is expected to slow in 2024 [24]. Seasonal Operation Rates - The operational rates of domestic pure benzene facilities exhibit seasonality, aligning with refinery maintenance schedules, particularly in spring and autumn [33]. Downstream Demand - Downstream demand for pure benzene has been increasing, especially since 2021, driven by the commissioning of styrene and other downstream facilities, although the share of styrene has been declining [35]. Import and Export Dynamics - Domestic pure benzene is primarily imported, with significant imports from South Korea and Southeast Asia, while exports remain minimal [41]. Profitability - The profitability of pure benzene production is typically assessed through the price spread between pure benzene and naphtha, with variations depending on market conditions [46]. Supply and Demand Balance - The supply-demand balance for pure benzene is influenced by various factors, including production costs and downstream demand fluctuations [50]. Futures Contracts - Futures contracts for pure benzene are traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, with specific trading units and delivery standards outlined [53][54]. Delivery Standards - The delivery standards for pure benzene include specifications for appearance, purity, and various chemical content limits, ensuring quality control in trading [54][55]. Delivery Areas and Pricing - Delivery areas for pure benzene are strategically chosen to facilitate trade, with pricing adjustments based on regional supply and demand dynamics [56].