Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a new phase of supply-side reform (Supply-Side Reform 2.0) in response to the government's call for orderly exit of backward production capacity, particularly targeting industries like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e-commerce [4][10]. Group 1: Supply-Side Reform Context - The recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to govern low-price disorderly competition and improve product quality, which has raised market expectations for a new wave of supply-side reforms [4][7]. - The article draws parallels between the current situation and the supply-side reforms initiated in 2015, which led to a significant bull market in commodities like steel and cement after addressing overcapacity [7][14]. Group 2: Industry Focus - The current focus of the reform is on new industries such as new energy vehicles and e-commerce, contrasting with the previous focus on traditional sectors like steel and cement [10][12]. - The article highlights that industries with historically low profit margins, such as petrochemicals, electrical equipment, and telecommunications, may also become targets for reform if the anti-involution movement expands [12][14]. Group 3: Demand and Market Dynamics - The sustainability of demand is crucial for determining the long-term direction of industries, as seen in the past when the real estate sector supported commodity prices during the previous supply-side reforms [11][12]. - The article raises questions about whether the current reforms will be limited to downstream sectors or if they will encompass the entire supply chain, which could significantly impact demand and pricing [14][15]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The article suggests that the upcoming political bureau meeting will be a critical point for assessing the government's long-term demand-side strategies and their implications for various industries [15]. - It also notes that if the reforms are too aggressive, particularly in sectors that have already undergone significant transformation, there may be a need for government intervention to correct course [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting emphasizes the importance of advancing the construction of a unified national market and promoting high-quality development of the marine economy [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Impact - The meeting highlights the need to address issues of overcapacity, low-price competition, and the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which aligns with supply-side structural reforms [4][5]. - The steel industry is identified as a key area for reform, with a focus on eliminating ineffective and inefficient production capacities, which is expected to support steel prices [10]. - The cement and glass industries are also under scrutiny due to severe regional overcapacity and intense price competition, with policies aimed at improving supply-demand dynamics and stabilizing prices [10][11]. Group 2: Specific Industries Affected - The steel industry will see impacts on rebar, hot-rolled sheets, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, as the exit of backward capacity is expected to reduce supply and support prices [10]. - The non-ferrous metals sector, particularly electrolytic aluminum, is under pressure to replace and eliminate outdated capacities, which will likely support aluminum prices [11]. - The basic chemical raw materials sector, including soda ash, PVC, methanol, and PTA, faces similar challenges of overcapacity and intense competition, with policies aimed at stabilizing prices and promoting healthy industry development [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the long-term outlook for the commodity market, emphasizing the ongoing down cycles in real estate and coal sectors, which are expected to continue impacting commodity demand negatively [5][7][10]. - The real estate market is underperforming due to high inventory levels, and stabilization requires either market-driven solutions or policy interventions. Current housing price pressures indicate that recovery will take time [10][13]. - The construction industry, which includes non-real estate projects, is also expected to decline, further pressuring demand for related commodities. The construction area is projected to continue decreasing until the end of 2027 [11][13]. Group 2 - Coal prices have returned to levels seen between 2016 and 2020, primarily due to increased supply and competition from renewable energy sources. The demand for coal is expected to remain weak as renewable energy continues to grow [16][18]. - The article highlights that while coal prices are at marginal cost levels, a rebound is possible, but a significant reversal in the downtrend is unlikely. This indicates that commodities related to coal and real estate will remain in a down cycle [18][20]. - The performance of commodities linked to the dollar's credit has been strong, with gold and silver prices significantly increasing. The article discusses the potential for a weakening dollar to influence commodity prices positively in the future [20][22]. Group 3 - The article discusses the implications of U.S. fiscal policies on the dollar's strength, suggesting that high fiscal deficits will undermine dollar credibility, which could lead to a favorable environment for commodities like gold [21][24]. - Gold is identified as a leading indicator for other commodities, with its price movements often preceding changes in the Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) index by about a year [24][27]. - The relationship between the dollar cycle and emerging market growth is emphasized, indicating that a weaker dollar could lead to increased demand for commodities from emerging markets, which are the primary growth drivers for commodity demand [30][33].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current challenges and dynamics within the poultry and soybean meal industry, particularly focusing on price fluctuations and inventory pressures [1][4][30] - The price of chick seedlings has dropped significantly, falling below 2 yuan per chick by the end of June, compared to around 3 yuan at the end of May, indicating a rapid decline in the breeding sector [1] - The processing segment of poultry products is currently the most profitable, although sales are weak, leading to high inventory levels, especially in the Shandong region [1][10] Group 2 - The oil mills are experiencing inventory pressure, with some urging customers to pick up products to avoid storage issues, and the operating rate is expected to remain high in Shandong by mid to late July [2][44] - The daily usage of soybean meal has increased, primarily due to formula adjustments rather than an increase in feed sales, with expectations for stable usage in July compared to June [3][33] - The soybean meal inventory pressure is anticipated to rise significantly by mid-July, with feed factories reluctant to accept contracts due to a preference for higher protein content soybean meal [4][10] Group 3 - The procurement attitude for soybean meal for the period from October to January remains cautious due to policy uncertainties, with expectations that the basis may weaken compared to July [5][34] - The current soybean meal addition ratio in chicken feed has increased to 30%, up from 25% in late March, indicating a shift in feed formulation strategies [7][49] - Seasonal characteristics of poultry feed sales show a peak demand period from May to October, with a notable increase expected in August and September [8][45] Group 4 - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts shows a disparity, with approximately 80% of contracts for July to September sold, while only about 20% for October to January [13][41] - The quality of Brazilian soybeans has been noted to be lower this year, affecting the protein content and overall supply dynamics [14][22] - The overall supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient in October, but the tightness of supply in December to February remains to be observed [28][46] Group 5 - The market for soybean meal is characterized by a balance of high supply and high demand, with expectations for better demand in the third quarter compared to the fourth [30][33] - The pressure on soybean meal prices is expected to be limited in July, but caution is advised for August due to potential fluctuations [31][54] - The current physical inventory of soybean meal is around 7 days, with Shandong showing higher inventory levels exceeding 10 days, indicating a passive accumulation trend [42][44]

Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment improved as the Israel-Palestine conflict eased, and U.S. macro data showed resilience, leading to increased expectations for three interest rate cuts this year, resulting in a "risk on" environment where risk assets generally rose, particularly copper prices which increased while gold prices fell [1][3]. Precious Metals Market Overview - Gold prices fell last week, with COMEX gold down 2.9% and SHFE gold down 1.5%, while silver prices showed a slight increase [2][21]. - The easing of the Israel-Palestine conflict led to a decrease in market risk aversion, and subsequent dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials raised expectations for interest rate cuts, causing the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields to decline [4][20]. - Despite the short-term decline in gold prices, the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties suggest limited downside potential for gold in the medium to long term, with a recommendation to wait for stabilization [4][49]. Base Metals Market Review - Copper prices rose significantly, with COMEX copper increasing by 4.86% and SHFE copper by 2.79%, driven by a combination of favorable market sentiment and supply constraints from overseas smelting plants [2][3]. - The copper market is expected to enter a traditional off-season with low inventory levels, which may support price increases if inventory does not accumulate during this period [5][49]. - The copper concentrate TC weekly index rose slightly, indicating a "strong mine, weak smelting" market dynamic, with smelting plants facing production losses due to low processing fees [8][10]. Inventory and Positioning - COMEX gold inventory decreased by approximately 530,000 ounces, while COMEX silver inventory increased by about 3.62 million ounces, indicating mixed trends in precious metal inventories [35]. - The positioning data from CFTC shows that non-commercial short positions in gold remain low, suggesting a lack of strong directional signals from positioning alone [7][40]. Market Outlook - The overall market sentiment is expected to remain positive for copper, with low inventory levels potentially leading to price increases, while gold may experience limited downside due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [49].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price movements and market dynamics of various commodities, particularly focusing on industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, suggesting a potential recovery for these commodities after significant declines [3][4][5]. Group 1: Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are influenced by production cuts in major production areas, particularly in Xinjiang, where a reduction of approximately 1,500-1,700 tons is expected due to factory shutdowns [4]. - The market has seen a shift in the price curve for industrial silicon, moving from a Super Contango structure, indicating a potential price bottoming out [6][9]. Group 2: Polysilicon - The recent increase in polysilicon prices is attributed to a meeting held by the National Development and Reform Commission to support price stabilization, alongside a significant rebound in coal prices, which affects production costs [5]. - The market sentiment around polysilicon has improved due to excessive pessimism in the past two years, leading to a demand for valuation recovery [5]. Group 3: Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate has experienced a short-term increase in prices due to a mismatch in warehouse receipts and a favorable market atmosphere, indicating a potential for recovery [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the interaction between market behavior and price movements, suggesting that merely analyzing static balance sheets is insufficient for predicting price trends [5][10]. - It highlights that historical price structures often lead inventory changes, with price movements typically preceding inventory adjustments by 3-5 months [8][9].

Group 1 - The carbon market is experiencing a short-term price decline due to macroeconomic factors, but market activity and transaction volume are increasing, indicating robust development. Long-term expectations suggest tightening carbon emission quotas from 2026, pushing companies towards green energy and energy-saving technologies [2] - The electricity market reform is driven by the surge in renewable energy installations, leading to increased pressure on grid peak regulation. The reform aims for full market-based pricing for renewable energy, which may create revenue uncertainties and has led to a drop in demand since June [3] - Domestic polysilicon production remains stable at 90,000 to 100,000 tons per month, with annual capacity exceeding 3 million tons. However, high inventory levels and unstable profit expectations from photovoltaic power generation have resulted in weakened demand [4] Group 2 - Industrial silicon prices have unexpectedly dropped below 7,000 yuan per ton, below the optimal cost line for leading companies. Despite losses, production remains stable due to employment and loan pressures, with monthly production at 300,000 tons [5] - The lithium carbonate market is facing increasing oversupply, with projected supply of 1.6 million tons and demand of 1.3 million tons by 2025, leading to a surplus of 200,000 tons. Prices may continue to be under pressure in the short term [6] - The aluminum alloy futures market has low participation and limited delivery sources, with a focus on cost factors such as scrap aluminum prices and industrial silicon [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong government aims to establish the region as a global digital asset center through the "LEAP" framework, focusing on legal and regulatory optimization, expanding tokenized product offerings, advancing application scenarios, and developing talent and partnerships [1][6][28] Group 1: Legal and Regulatory Streamlining - A unified and comprehensive regulatory framework for digital asset service providers will be established, covering trading platforms, stablecoin issuers, and custodians [2][10] - The Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) will be the main regulatory body for digital asset trading and custody service providers, with a public consultation on licensing mechanisms planned [12][13] - The government will review laws and regulations to facilitate the tokenization of real-world assets and financial instruments, enhancing efficiency and transparency [15][18] Group 2: Expanding Tokenized Product Offerings - The issuance of tokenized government bonds will be regularized, with the government having previously issued approximately HKD 6.8 billion in tokenized green bonds [16][17] - Incentives will be provided for the tokenization of real-world assets and financial instruments, including tax exemptions for tokenized ETFs [19][20] - The government encourages the tokenization of various assets, including precious metals and renewable energy, to enhance market liquidity and accessibility [19][28] Group 3: Advancing Use Cases and Cross-Sectoral Collaboration - The stablecoin issuer licensing regime will be implemented on August 1, 2025, to support practical application scenarios [22][23] - Collaboration among regulatory bodies, law enforcement, and technology providers will be strengthened to develop digital asset infrastructure [23][24] - The government welcomes market participants to propose how to experiment with licensed stablecoins to improve payment efficiency [22][28] Group 4: People and Partnership Development - The government will collaborate with industry and academia to promote talent development in digital assets, focusing on blockchain applications and innovation [26][27] - Hong Kong aims to become a center for knowledge sharing and international cooperation in the digital asset field [27][28] - Initiatives will be launched to support startups and financial institutions, ensuring a sustainable talent pool for the digital asset industry [26][28]

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者邵翔 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 文 | 邵翔 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 7 月降息"豪赌"？特朗普"爱将" vs 联储主席，美国货币政策迎来关键博弈。 近期美联储理 事沃勒与副主席鲍曼接连表态支持在7月启动降息，引发市场对货币政策转向的强烈预期。 作为特朗普任命的理事，沃勒和鲍曼的激进鸽派发言并非"空穴来风"，而是美联储在多重约 束下的策略性选择： 既要应对经济数据的"迷雾"（经济下行担忧），又要平衡白宫的政治压 力，同时维系市场对政策独立性的信任。而作为美联储内部具有影响力的官员，其激进表态 也或将一定程度影响后续联储的降息决策，为货币政策转向预留"安全垫"。 | | 鲍曼和沃勒降息表态 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 官员 | 职位 | 与特朗普关系 | 降息表态 | | 的曼 | 美联储理事、监管副主 席 | 特朗普1.0任命为美联储理事: 特朗普2.0任命为美联储副主席 | 如果通胀压力得到控制,将支持在下次会议 (7月) 上尽快 ...

卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者林彦 邵翔 川阅全球宏观 . 文 | 林彦 邵翔 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 我们一直认为：作为一个慢变量，宏观应该是经济和金融市场中相对容易预测的部分。但在经历了近期的市场波动后，外界也许更加理解我们为什么会说： 今年预测不到的事，远比我们自认为能预测的事要多。当"百年未有之大变局"下遇到了历史上数一数二"善变"的美国总统，全球宏观研究员和外贸企业突然 成为了同一拨"被害者"。唯一能庆幸的是相比后者，至少我们不用安排自己的产品"海面两万里"（抢转口或是出口）。 目前看来，今年中间这两个季度可能是作为这个"乱纪元"中最混乱的一个阶段。 对市场有着深刻影响的因素包括但不限于：全球关税战 +减税支出再平衡+美联储独立性+美国三权分立争端+全球央行节奏错位+中东地缘政治冲突等。市场关注的宏观内容几乎涵盖了所有的社 会科学范畴。而我们的学习迭代能力完全跟不上事态变化的速度。所以我们觉得最合理的对策是： 着眼当下，对即将到来的三季度做有限 的预测（而且主要是偏长期的逻辑，然后看 ...