同时，近年来各地招商引资竞争加剧，或助长部分领域"内卷式"竞争。 国研院调查研究报告显示，目前 地方招商"内卷化"主要表现为四"集中"：一是集中在相同产业领域进行招商；二是集中比拼政策优惠力 度；三是集中在"大项目""大企业""全产业链"方面招商；四是集中在"招项目"的环节上发力，"管项目"方 面缺少可持续性机制。 在此背景下，2024年底以来，政府和业界越发重视"反内卷"。 2024年中央政治局会议明确"防止恶性竞 争"，同年底进一步升级为"综合整治"。2025年全国两会期间，习近平总书记强调破除地方保护与市场分 割；政府工作报告首次将"综合整治'内卷式'竞争"写入政策部署，指出破除地方保护和市场分割，实施全 国统一大市场建设指引。 摘要 2025年政府工作报告明确提出"综合整治'内卷式'竞争"；哪些行业可能存在"内卷式"竞争，本轮"反内 卷"有何不同？本文系统分析，可供参考。 为何当前时点强调"反内卷"？产能利用率与PPI双重承压，地方招商引资竞争加剧 当前我国工业领域面临供需失衡压力攀升，突出表现为产能利用率与价格体系的双重承压。 截至2025年 4 月，PPI已连续31个月同比负增长，仅短于 2012 ...

Core Viewpoints - The economy is transitioning from a phase of "old forces" declining to "new forces" gaining momentum, indicating a structural shift in economic dynamics [2][4][41] Consumption - In April, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales decreased to 5.1%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a slowdown in retail sales of goods above a certain threshold [10][64] - The consumption of essential goods remains stable, with food and oil products showing a growth of 14.0% year-on-year [2][10] - The slowdown in the "old-for-new" policy has negatively impacted the sales of automobiles and communication equipment, while home appliances continue to perform well [2][10] Investment - Fixed asset investment showed weakness in April, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.0%, and a month-on-month decline of 0.8 percentage points to 3.6% [2][16] - The decline in investment is attributed to the nearing end of the equipment renewal cycle, affecting manufacturing and public utility investments [2][16] - Service sector investment remains resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% in April, particularly in cultural and entertainment sectors [3][23] Real Estate - The supply issues in the real estate sector are improving, but the release of pent-up demand is entering a "decline phase" [3][26] - In April, real estate investment fell by 11.3% year-on-year, reflecting a decrease in existing projects [3][26] - The construction completion rate has significantly dropped, with a year-on-year decline of 25.8% in April, leading to a stabilization in housing prices [3][26] Industrial Production - Industrial production showed a decline, with the industrial added value year-on-year growth at 6.1%, down 1.6 percentage points from March [5][36] - Manufacturing production also experienced a marginal decline, with significant drops in sectors related to real estate and consumer goods [36][42] Employment - The urban survey unemployment rate decreased to 5.1% in April, indicating improved employment conditions for both migrant and local populations [71]

Group 1 - The article discusses the monitoring framework for assessing the economic impact of tariff shocks in the U.S., focusing on trade, prices, and risk preferences [3][27] - As of mid-May, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports has decreased to around 16%, but it remains at a historical high, with potential GDP decline of 0.65% and inflation increase of 1.7% due to tariffs [4][13][10] - The article emphasizes that the current economic condition is characterized by "stagflation," which is the baseline assumption for the short term [18][19] Group 2 - In the short term, key economic indicators to monitor include imports, inventory levels, and inflation pressures, with a notable increase in imports and stable inventory turnover ratios [4][39] - The article highlights that the inflation effects of tariffs may be delayed but are expected to manifest, impacting consumer demand [4][58] - The U.S. economy is likely to follow a dynamic path from "stagflation" to "slowdown" or "recession," depending on how tariff conflicts evolve [5][105] Group 3 - The article notes that the U.S. has experienced a significant "import rush" in the first quarter, with a stable inventory-to-sales ratio, indicating robust domestic demand despite tariff impacts [4][39] - Tariffs have led to a shift in U.S. import patterns, with increased imports from countries with lower tariff rates, such as Canada and Mexico, while imports from China have decreased significantly [36][30] - The article suggests that certain U.S. export sectors, particularly oil, coal, and basic metals, may face significant challenges due to retaliatory tariffs [47][5] Group 4 - The inflation effects of tariffs are becoming evident, with U.S. retail prices starting to reflect the impact of tariffs on imported goods [58][61] - The article indicates that the inflationary pressures may suppress consumer spending, as observed in the correlation between inflation and consumer behavior [69][61] - The financial market's volatility and increased financial pressure could further suppress investment and consumer sentiment in the U.S. economy [75][88]

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、王茂宇 联系人 | 王茂宇 摘要 大类资产&海外事件&数据：中美日内瓦谈判实现关税互降，金价回落 美股三大股指齐涨，黄金价格出现回落。 当周，纳指上涨7.2%，日经225上涨0.7%；10Y美债收益率上行 6bp至4.43%；美元指数上涨0.6%至100.98，离岸人民币降至7.2098；WTI原油上涨2.4%至62.5美元/桶， COMEX黄金下跌4.0%至3191.8美元/盎司。 中美日内瓦谈判达成协议，双方实现关税互降。 5月12日，中美达成协议后，美国对华关税降至42%，中 国对美国关税降至27%。美国整体平均关税税率由27%降至16%。新版关税或仍可能使美国GDP下跌0.65 个点，通胀抬升1.7个点。未来可关注芬太尼等局部协议的可能性。 4月美国CPI弱于市场预期，但零售略强于预期。 美国4月CPI同比2.3%，市场预期2.4%，商品通胀将持续 反映关税影响，服务通胀趋势仍为放缓；美国4月零售环比0.1%，略强于市场预期，但剔除汽车、汽油后 的零售口径表现较弱，或前期美国居民"抢购"商品动力有所减弱。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving landscape of trade conflicts, particularly focusing on tariffs and their implications for monetary policy and economic stability [5][12][29] Group 1: Hot Topics - Financial pressure may be a key contradiction leading to the Federal Reserve's potential shift towards a dovish stance, particularly in the context of tariff impacts [5][35] - The article explores the "endgame" of trade conflicts, suggesting that future negotiations may involve splitting issues to facilitate partial agreements [29][37] - The article highlights the "irreplaceability" of Chinese manufacturing, identifying nine industries with strong dependencies that are difficult to replace [10][12] Group 2: Policy Analysis - The article outlines recent monetary policy adjustments, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market [26] - It discusses the implications of April's inflation data, noting that while tariffs have impacted the Producer Price Index (PPI), improved consumer demand has supported the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) [17][18] - The article emphasizes the need for timely and adaptive policies in response to ongoing trade negotiations and economic conditions [12][28] Group 3: Trade Agreements - The recent economic prosperity agreement between the US and UK is analyzed, with a focus on the incremental information it provides regarding future trade negotiations [7][29] - The article suggests that the core interests in trade conflicts may not be easily compromised, indicating a complex negotiation landscape ahead [29][37] - It also discusses the potential for trade negotiations to evolve into more flexible frameworks, allowing for targeted agreements rather than comprehensive solutions [29][37]

Policy Tracking - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the introduction of a comprehensive financial policy aimed at stabilizing the stock market, real estate market, and enhancing financial support for private and technology-driven enterprises [1][2]. 1. Financial Policy Measures - On May 7, a press conference was held to introduce a "package of financial policies" to support market stability and expectations, detailing three major types of monetary policy measures and ten specific initiatives [1]. - The central bank's measures include a comprehensive reduction in reserve requirements and interest rate cuts on structural monetary policy tools, aimed at alleviating the financial burden on commercial banks [1]. 2. Support for Private Enterprises - The "Private Economy Promotion Law" was introduced, marking the first time the legal status of private enterprises is explicitly defined, emphasizing the importance of promoting sustainable and high-quality development of the private economy [2][4]. - The law aims to create a stable, fair, transparent, and predictable environment for the development of the private economy, ensuring equal treatment and protection for private enterprises [4]. 3. Financial Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - The National Financial Supervision Administration issued a notice outlining goals for financial services for small and micro enterprises by 2025, focusing on maintaining credit supply, improving service quality, and reducing financing costs [9][10]. - The notice emphasizes the need for banks to provide sufficient credit support and to ensure that the growth rate of loans to small and micro enterprises is not lower than that of overall loans [9]. 4. Regional Financial Cooperation - During the 28th ASEAN Plus Three Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, discussions focused on enhancing regional financial cooperation to address global economic uncertainties [5][6]. - China expressed its commitment to deepening financial cooperation within the region, emphasizing the importance of multilateralism and free trade [6][7]. 5. Macroeconomic Policy - The Chinese government plans to adopt more proactive macroeconomic policies to achieve a growth target of around 5% by 2025, with a focus on building a unified domestic market and expanding high-level openness [7][8]. - The government aims to share development opportunities with the Asia-Pacific region while addressing global challenges collaboratively [8].

Core Viewpoints - The sudden increase in M2 growth in April is primarily due to a rapid recovery of non-bank deposits, which is linked to effective macro policies responding to tariff shocks, leading to accelerated capital market recovery [3][8][46] - The credit landscape in April shows a pattern of "loan decline and bond financing recovery," with short-term loans decreasing due to previous surges, while medium to long-term loans saw a smaller increase, influenced by debt resolution progress and tariff shock impacting corporate expectations [12][20][46] Financial Data Summary - In April, the total new credit was 280 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 450 billion, mainly due to the corporate sector [26][49] - The total social financing (社融) increased by 1,159.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1,224.9 billion, with corporate bond financing showing signs of recovery [32][49] - M2 increased by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year to 8.0%, while M1 decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.5% [39][50] Resident and Corporate Credit Trends - Resident credit remained subdued, with a cautious debt attitude due to employment market pressures and tariff disturbances, reflected in the BCI enterprise hiring index remaining below 50 for two consecutive months [15][47] - The structure of social financing in April showed a dominance of government bonds and improvement in corporate bonds, with government bonds increasing by 10,666 billion year-on-year [20][48] Future Outlook - The combination of policy measures and easing external shocks is expected to stabilize microeconomic expectations, with the central bank announcing ten specific measures to support capital markets, real estate, and the private economy [25][48] - The recent easing of US-China trade tensions is anticipated to further improve microeconomic expectations and stabilize corporate credit demand [25][48]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new signals released during the policy window period in late April, emphasizing the need for flexible and timely incremental policies in response to external uncertainties and internal economic conditions [2][11][70]. Group 1: New Signals from the Policy Window - The April Politburo meeting highlighted the importance of stabilizing employment, economy, market, and expectations, while maintaining vigilance against external risks, marking the first use of the term "international economic and trade struggle" [3][11][70]. - The meeting emphasized the need for a flexible and unconventional policy toolbox, advocating for timely incremental reserve policies based on changing circumstances [3][11][70]. Group 2: Employment and Market Stability Policies - The April 28 press conference focused on stabilizing employment, detailing three key areas: promoting consumption through subsidies, expanding employment opportunities for specific groups, and enhancing support for the private economy [4][12][76]. - The May 7 press conference centered on market stability, outlining measures to stabilize the stock market, real estate market, and enhance financial support for technological innovation [4][13][76]. Group 3: Incremental Policy Adjustments - The current 90-day tariff "grace period" serves as a crucial window for implementing existing policies and strengthening incremental policy reserves, with strong export performance driven by "rush exports" [5][16][77]. - A series of flexible financial policies have been introduced, including comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts and structural monetary policy tool interest rate reductions to lower borrowing costs [5][18][77]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Funding Focus - Fiscal policy is under scrutiny regarding the issuance and utilization of existing debt quotas, with a notable decline in fiscal revenue in the first quarter, necessitating close attention to government bond issuance and incremental policy sustainability [6][21][78]. - The second quarter is expected to see the continued rollout of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment, with a focus on the pace of incremental funding [6][28][78]. Group 5: Potential Investment Directions - If tariff negotiations progress smoothly, future policy focus may shift towards long-term institutional reforms and structural policy support, with an emphasis on improving income distribution and social security mechanisms [9][46][79]. - Investment in new infrastructure to support emerging industries is anticipated to become a new growth point, alongside the acceleration of traditional infrastructure projects [9][57][80].

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the current easing of US-China tariff tensions, drawing parallels to the previous tariff phase under the Trump administration, highlighting the "irreplaceability" of Chinese manufacturing as a key theme [2][76]. Group 1: Underestimated Tariff Exemption Mechanism - The tariff exemption mechanism operates independently and is primarily initiated by US importers, not reliant on US-China negotiations [3][10]. - During the first tariff phase, the highest percentage of exempted goods reached 60%, with a total of 50 rounds of exemptions since 2018, amounting to a maximum of $118.3 billion [3][13]. - The current round of exemptions is implemented more rapidly than the previous phase, with the exemption list accounting for 26.5% of total US imports from China in 2024, including significant categories like mobile phones (40.3%) and computers (35.3%) [3][15]. Group 2: Reasons for Tariff Exemptions - Exempted products generally have a high dependency on Chinese imports, with significant exemption rates for items like rubber and plastics (62.9%) and furniture (62.2%) [4][20]. - Tariffs have led to increased industry costs, with a clear correlation between the proportion of goods subject to tariffs and the rise in Producer Price Index (PPI) for affected industries [4][25]. - The exemptions also aim to alleviate supply chain mismatches in the US, particularly in industries where domestic competitiveness has declined [5][30]. Group 3: Assessing the "Irreplaceability" of Chinese Manufacturing - Five perspectives are used to evaluate the "irreplaceability" of Chinese manufacturing, focusing on industries that are difficult to decouple from Chinese supply chains, such as machinery and electrical equipment [6][80]. - Industries with high import price increases and low reductions in dependency on Chinese goods, like rubber and plastics, indicate a persistent reliance on Chinese manufacturing [7][45]. - High price premiums for Chinese products in the US market, such as electric vehicles and consumer electronics, demonstrate their strong market competitiveness despite tariff pressures [8][51]. Group 4: Challenges in Indirect Decoupling - Certain industries, such as consumer electronics and textiles, face limited competition from alternative suppliers, making it difficult for the US to indirectly decouple from China [8][57]. - The overlap in product categories between US imports from China and other countries, such as Mexico and Vietnam, highlights the challenges in finding suitable replacements for Chinese goods [8][62].

【物价】农产品、工业品价格多有回落。 本周，农产品方面，蔬菜、猪肉、鸡蛋价格有所回落，环比分 别-2.2%、-2.3%、-0.1%。工业品方面，南华工业品价格指数环比-0.4%。其中，能化价格指数环 比-0.9%，金属价格指数环比-0.4%。 风险提示 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、 屠强 、 赵宇 联系人 | 屠强、浦聚颖 摘要 高频跟踪：工业生产平稳运行，基建开工边际改善，人流出行强度大幅上行。 【工业生产】工业生产平稳运行。 本周，高炉开工保持韧性，同比-0.6pct至3.1%。化工链开工有所改 善，纯碱、PTA和涤纶长丝开工同比分别+1.5、+1.2、+1.6pct至1.3%、1.2%、2.9%。相比之下，汽车半 钢胎开工有较大回落，同比-11.3pct至-17.9%。 【建筑业开工】建筑业开工表现分化。 本周，全国粉磨开工率、水泥出货率有所回落，同比分别-14pct 至-5%、-3.8pct至-6.3%。沥青开工率同比有所上行，较前周+7pct至2%。 【下游需求】港口货运量明显好转，人流出行强度大幅回升。 本周，反映出口的港口货物吞吐量有较大 上行，同比+10.4pct至4.2%。 ...