美股全线收涨，周五公布的美国 5 月非农就业数据超预期。 数据公布后，美国总统特朗普表示，美联储主席鲍威尔应当降息，应将利率下调整整一个百分点。 01 美股全线收涨 大型科技股普遍上涨 截至收盘，道指涨 1.05%，标普 500 指数涨 1.03%， 纳指涨 1.2%。 大型科技股全线上涨，特斯拉涨逾 3% ，谷歌涨逾 3% ，亚马逊涨近 3% ，脸书涨近 2% ，苹果涨逾 1% ，英伟达涨逾 1% ，微软涨 0.58% | 含歌Ａ | | | | --- | --- | --- | | GOOGL 已收盘06-06 16:00:00 美东 | | | | 173.68 +5.47 +3.25% | | 14.75万人加自选 === > US 融 空 期 LO | | 高 174.50 开 170.83 | 量 3573.18万股 | 总市值 2.11万亿 | | 低 170.83 换 0.29% | 额 61.84亿 | 市盈TTM 18.99 | | 期权 成交量54.61万张 未平仓数354.53万张 | | | | 盘后 173.70 +0.02 +0.01% | | 19:59:51 美东时间 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a strategy for asset allocation that combines gold and high-volatility micro-fund investments to achieve lower volatility while maintaining similar returns [3][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The strategy involves using a combination of gold and micro-fund investments, which historically show nearly zero correlation, providing a solid basis for asset allocation [9][10]. - The optimal allocation ratio of 80% gold and 20% micro-fund is proposed to minimize volatility, resulting in a lower annualized volatility of 10.99% compared to 12.38% for a 100% gold strategy [15][19]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The backtest results show that the 100% gold strategy had a cumulative return of +85.61% with an annualized return of 22.85% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.72 [16]. - In contrast, the 80% gold and 20% micro-fund strategy yielded a cumulative return of +84.42% with an annualized return of 22.59% and a higher Sharpe ratio of 1.92, indicating better risk-adjusted returns [20][24]. Group 3: Risk Management - The maximum drawdown for the 80% gold and 20% micro-fund strategy was 9.48%, lower than the 10.45% drawdown for the 100% gold strategy, demonstrating improved risk control [21][26]. - The recovery time for the mixed strategy was 37 days, while the 100% gold strategy had not yet recovered, highlighting the resilience of the combined approach [21][24]. Group 4: Historical Performance - Historical data indicates a 100% probability of profit when holding the combined strategy for three years, with an average return of +32.50% [22]. - The article emphasizes that asset allocation can maintain returns while reducing volatility, supporting the notion that diversification is beneficial [25][26].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations in the early session, with the three major indices slightly declining. As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.48%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 746.7 billion, an increase of 32.4 billion compared to the previous trading day [1]. Sector Performance - In terms of sector performance, silver, military industry, and agricultural chemical products saw significant gains, while sectors such as football concepts, beauty care, IP economy, and pet economy experienced notable declines [2]. Tesla Stock Impact - The public feud between Elon Musk and Donald Trump led to a significant drop in Tesla's stock price, which fell by 14.26%, resulting in a market value loss of over 150 billion [3][8]. Silver Market Surge - The precious metals sector saw a rise, with silver leading the gains. Notable stocks such as Hunan Silver and Silver Nonferrous reached their daily limit, while others like Xingye Silver and Shengda Resources increased by over 5%. On June 5, spot silver surged by 4.5%, reaching above $36 per ounce, the highest level since February 2012. Analysts suggest that silver's industrial demand and potential trade protection measures from the U.S. government could drive further price increases [13][17]. Military Industry Activity - Military stocks experienced a notable rally, with companies like Qifeng Precision and Huawu Co. rising over 10%. The Indonesian government's evaluation of purchasing Chinese-made J-10 fighter jets could have broader implications for regional military trade dynamics, potentially influencing countries like Thailand and Malaysia to consider similar acquisitions. Analysts believe that China's military trade capabilities and potential will elevate the defense industry's prospects [18][20].

Group 1: New Consumption Stocks - The new consumption stocks, including Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group, experienced significant declines, with Lao Pu Gold down 9%, Mixue Group down 7%, and Pop Mart down 1% [3][6] - These stocks had previously seen massive gains, with Lao Pu Gold increasing by 23 times and Pop Mart rising from 8.6 HKD to 256 HKD over two and a half years, leading to high market expectations [6] - Current valuations are concerning, with Pop Mart's P/E ratio at 96, Lao Pu Gold at 99, and Mixue Group at 46, indicating potential overvaluation [6][9] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector has seen a notable pullback, with various segments such as CRO, medical aesthetics, generic drugs, and innovative drugs experiencing significant declines [10] - Individual stocks like Jinkai Biotechnology fell by 9.79%, and other popular stocks like Qianhong Pharmaceutical and Kexing Pharmaceutical also showed marked declines [11][13] Group 3: Sports Industry - The "Su Super League" has gained immense popularity, driving related sports stocks in the A-share market to surge, with Jinling Sports hitting a 20% limit up for three consecutive days, totaling a 104% increase over five trading days [19] - The league's matches have seen high attendance, with some matches exceeding attendance levels of the Chinese Super League, indicating strong market interest [19][20] Group 4: Military Equipment Sector - The military equipment sector is leading the market, with several companies disclosing restructuring progress related to the China Ordnance Equipment Group, resulting in stock price increases for companies like Dong'an Power and Huasheng Technology [22][23] - The restructuring is part of a broader initiative approved by the State Council, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and market positioning for the involved companies [22]

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes the importance of fixed overall volatility in asset allocation to maximize returns and Sharpe ratios, derived from the pursuit of portfolio efficiency [3][41]. - The article outlines a three-step process to reconstruct investment paradigms: setting risk budgets, decomposing volatility allocation, and maximizing efficiency [6][10][11]. - The article presents backtesting results using the "three-part method" tool, comparing various strategies and highlighting the performance of long bond and equity combinations [4][12]. Group 2 - The first step involves anchoring the overall annualized volatility target, which should align with the investor's risk tolerance, with examples indicating a target of around 2% volatility corresponding to a maximum drawdown of 2% [6][7]. - The second step focuses on decomposing total volatility across asset classes using dynamic optimization models, aiming for negative correlation between asset classes to enhance returns [10][16]. - The third step aims to maximize the overall portfolio efficiency by adjusting the volatility exposure allocated to different asset classes [11][21]. Group 3 - Backtesting results show that an 88.5% long bond and 11.5% equity combination achieved a cumulative return of 22.20% with an annualized volatility of only 2.19%, significantly lower than the 17.72% volatility of the CSI 300 index [16][42]. - The long bond portion contributed an annualized volatility of 1.85%, while the equity portion contributed only 0.68% due to their negative correlation of -0.33, resulting in a compressed overall portfolio volatility [16][22]. - The article highlights that the long bond and equity strategy outperformed pure long bond strategies, achieving a higher Sharpe ratio of 2.47 compared to 2.02 for pure long bonds [21][41]. Group 4 - The article discusses the advantages of the long bond and equity strategy, noting that long bond funds have a higher unit risk-return ratio compared to equity funds in recent market conditions [44][45]. - It emphasizes that a stronger negative correlation between long bonds and equities allows for higher volatility exposure while maintaining lower overall portfolio volatility [46][47]. - The conclusion suggests that in the current market environment, anchoring around 2% volatility, the optimal solution is a combination of long bonds and equities, despite a potentially higher maximum drawdown compared to short bonds and equities [48].

Core Viewpoint - The investment essence of the innovative drug industry is a "high risk, high return" technology game, with value realization highly concentrated in the window of "emergence of potential blockbuster drugs → successful commercialization during patent period" [2] Group 1: Nature of Innovative Drug Investment - Innovative drug investment combines "stage-based value investment" and "probability game" due to the industry's unique characteristics [3] - The overall R&D return rate in the industry is close to zero, with a 90% failure rate in clinical stages, leading to a valuation paradox [3] - The value of companies is highly dependent on single blockbuster drugs, and without replacement products post-patent cliff, valuations can collapse [3] Group 2: Redefining Value Investment - Traditional value investment standards are difficult to apply to pure innovative drug companies due to low R&D returns and high failure rates [4] - Value creation in innovative drug companies is concentrated in the window of "potential blockbuster validation → approval → successful commercialization" [4] - The core of evaluating a drug company is the discounted cash flow of existing products and future pipelines, with blockbuster potential being a key variable [4] Group 3: Probability Game - Drug development is a high-risk process, with early pipeline value being low but exponential increases in value upon successful key clinical trials [6] - Excellent platforms and management can significantly improve success probabilities and efficiencies, although they do not guarantee success [6] - The role of platforms includes improving success rates, increasing the number of attempts, and maximizing the value of successful projects [6] Group 4: Investment Decision Framework - Investment decisions should revolve around the value verification and release cycle of potential blockbuster drugs [8] - Early-stage investments focus on companies with disruptive technology platforms or unique scientific insights, with high risk but potentially huge returns [9] - Key value inflection points occur when core pipelines enter critical clinical stages, significantly increasing success probabilities [11] Group 5: Timing and Exit Strategies - Timing is crucial; knowing when to invest is often more important than which company to invest in [19] - Investors should exit when core value drivers are disproven, growth expectations peak, or when nearing patent cliffs [17] - Continuous tracking of pipeline progress, competitive landscape, clinical data, regulatory dynamics, and sales performance is essential [19] Group 6: Final Conclusion - Innovative drug investment focuses on identifying and investing in companies experiencing non-linear value growth driven by breakthrough drugs [20] - Successful investment requires scientific insight, business judgment, probability thinking, and strict timing discipline [20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current challenges facing the Chinese liquor industry, particularly the white wine sector, highlighting the impact of economic cycles on sales and pricing strategies [3][6][11]. Group 1: Market Conditions - During the recent Dragon Boat Festival holiday, negative news dominated the white wine sector, with prices for premium brands like Moutai nearing 2050 yuan per bottle, approaching the 2000 yuan mark [3]. - E-commerce platforms have been aggressively discounting products, leading to price discrepancies across channels, which has pressured manufacturers to maintain pricing [5][6]. - The overall market environment appears slightly better than last year, with retail sales of consumer goods reaching 161,845 billion yuan, growing by 4.7%, and catering revenue increasing by 4.8% [7]. Group 2: Company Performance - First-quarter reports indicate a significant decline in growth rates for most white wine companies compared to the previous year, with some experiencing substantial drops in net profit [6]. - Moutai is projected to maintain a stable growth rate, while other companies will struggle to achieve positive growth or minimize declines [7][8]. - Moutai has committed to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 75%, with a projected net profit of 86.2 billion yuan for 2024, translating to a dividend of approximately 51.43 yuan per share [8]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Concerns about the long-term viability of the white wine market include changing consumer preferences, high prices, and potential overcapacity [9]. - Historical perspectives suggest that current criticisms of the white wine sector echo sentiments from previous downturns, which were followed by recovery [9][11]. - The article emphasizes that understanding the white wine market can provide insights into broader economic trends, consumer behavior, and financial markets [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the structural differentiation in the A-share market since Q2 2025, highlighting the significant rise in bank stocks and the new economy representative, Pop Mart, driven by the market's dual pursuit of "certainty" and "growth" [1]. Group 1: Bank Stocks - The low interest rate environment creates a "dividend anchoring effect," with the average dividend yield of listed banks at 5.08%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of 1.73%, attracting long-term funds like insurance and social security [3][4]. - Policy benefits and risk mitigation are evident as the central bank's rate cuts and easing measures reduce net interest margin pressure, while regulatory changes increase the weight of bank stocks in core indices, leading to passive fund inflows [4]. - The valuation recovery potential is clear, with the banking sector's price-to-book ratio at only 0.69, representing a 30% discount to historical averages, alongside a projected 4.5% growth in net profit for 2024, indicating strong earnings stability and valuation attractiveness [5]. Group 2: Pop Mart - The explosive growth of Z-generation consumer trends is highlighted, with Pop Mart's overseas revenue surging by 475%-480% in Q1 2025, accounting for nearly 40% of total revenue, significantly outpacing traditional IP companies [7]. - Global expansion and supply chain advantages are emphasized, with overseas stores generating 1.5 times the revenue of domestic ones, and a new factory in Vietnam reducing costs by 10%, positioning emerging markets as new growth drivers [8]. - The capital market's recognition of Pop Mart's "soft power" is reflected in its market capitalization surpassing Sanrio, with a stock price increase of over 22 times since the 2023 low, although its business model is highly dependent on Z-generation consumption habits [9]. Group 3: Market Comparison - Bank stocks are deemed more attractive for short-term investment due to stronger certainty from policy support and risk mitigation, with a controlled risk exposure and a projected non-performing loan rate of 1.62% for 2024 [11]. - Pop Mart presents significant long-term growth potential through IP innovation and global expansion, with the possibility of becoming a "Chinese version of Disney," although risks related to changing Z-generation preferences and competition must be monitored [12]. - The article concludes that bank stocks represent a defensive value play focused on "low risk + high dividend," while Pop Mart bets on "Z-generation + globalization" growth, suggesting that investors align their choices with their risk preferences [13].

来源：雪球 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：边城浪子1986 二、有风口预期 比如2021年中广核新能源有碳中和风口，2024年中烟香港有出海风口，2025年招金矿业有金价 大涨风口，2024年底的腾讯、阿里有Ai风口。 三、市值越小，弹性越高 在预期确定的情况下，市值越小，弹性越高。像市值偏小的中广核新能源、中烟香港都是几倍涨 幅。 而大象腾讯、阿里短期涨幅就相对小一些，因为市值越大，推动上涨所需的资金越多。 像黄金风口的招金矿业就涨不过市值较小的灵宝黄金。 一些球友对我能不断从一只好的标的，切换到另一只好的标的感到好奇。除了自己本身就花大量 时间研究和收集标的外，经常是研究到凌晨1、2点，甚至3、4点。套用一句湖远行的话：我勤奋 一点不比别人差，选出好股的人为什么不能是我呢？ 当然除了勤奋以外，我的选择投资标的的标准主要有以下几点： 一、市值偏小，但大股东实力强劲 就是标的的市值比较小，但大股东却是巨头，这样未来的想象空间和资产注入空间就比较大，容 易得到大股东的扶持，未来市值增长空间就比较大。典型的就是中烟香港。中烟香港在2024年低 位时市值 ...

Group 1: Core Views - The new AI legislation has eliminated uncertainties in global markets for Nvidia outside of China, boosting market confidence with significant projects like Stargate [2] - Nvidia's stock has rebounded to early 2025 averages, indicating a recovery in market sentiment, while Broadcom approaches historical highs [2] - The US stock market appears to be pricing around the Blackwell generation, with companies like Amphenol and Viavi Technologies being key players in this trend [2][3] Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - A-share players are mirroring the logic of the US market, focusing on the pricing recovery of the Blackwell generation while also considering geopolitical risks and technological upgrades [5][6] - Key components for the Blackwell generation include copper cables, optical modules, and PCBs, with PCB production largely unaffected by tariffs due to its export routes [7] - Companies like Shenghong Technology and New Ease have seen significant recovery in market performance, driven by public fund investments [7] Group 3: Domestic Computing Power - Domestic computing power is currently in a phase of consolidation, influenced by factors such as the growth outlook from SMIC and new chip regulations that have halved upstream chip supply [9][10] - The emergence of numerous participants in AIDC has raised concerns about increased competition, as highlighted by recent Q1 financial reports [10] - National-level attention is being directed towards the coordination of AIDC infrastructure to avoid redundant construction [10] Group 4: Future Opportunities - The pricing recovery for Blackwell is expected to complete by the end of June, with future focus on the GB300 and Rubin architectures [12] - The evolution of AI cluster systems is shifting towards "interconnectivity," necessitating innovations in hardware architecture to meet new demands [13] - Opportunities in domestic computing power are anticipated to arise from centralized computing and collaborative innovation between hardware and software [14] Group 5: FAQs - High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) is recognized as a trend, with uncertainties primarily related to tariff barriers that could limit market access [16] - The demand for high-end PCBs is expected to rise as chip complexity increases, although potential shifts in demand due to new technologies like CPO and OIO are noted [17] - The large-scale commercialization of Blackwell is projected to significantly increase the market for 200G/λ, with SiPho technology poised to gain a competitive edge [18]