国泰海通策略联合行业 1月 22 日晚间 19:00 内容 1、如何看待地产基调的积极变化? 2、内需主导,会带来哪些投资机会? 热点解读 IEWS 曲会有 方 奕 首席策略分析师 主持人 苏 徽 资深策略分析师 涂力磊 | 地产首席分析师 部 猛 | 食饮化妆品首席分析师 花健祎 | 建材联席首席分析师 李鹏飞 | 有色钢铁首席分析师 韩其成 | 建筑首席分析师 生 | M = * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * ** # 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 本公众订阅号(微信号 GTHT RESEARCH )为国泰海通证券股份有限公司(以下简 ...

Core Insights - The smart glasses industry is expected to enter a rapid growth phase, with related companies poised to benefit from an upturn in market conditions [1] Group 1: Product Launches and Innovations - Meta and EssilorLuxottica launched the new smart glasses, Ray-Ban Meta, featuring improved audio-visual quality and integration with Meta's Llama3 model [1] - Ray-Ban Meta includes live streaming capabilities and seamless connectivity with Meta's social platforms like Facebook and Instagram, expanding its application scenarios [1] Group 2: Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - The supply chain for AI glasses is more extensive than traditional eyewear, involving numerous hardware and software suppliers, including chip manufacturers and ODM/OEM firms [2] - The entry of various players into the AI glasses market includes mobile manufacturers, internet companies, XR firms, traditional eyewear brands, and 3C companies, with XR startups collaborating closely with traditional eyewear manufacturers [2] Group 3: Sales Growth and Market Trends - Domestic sales of AI glasses are projected to reach 210,000 units by Q3 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of approximately 200%, driven by brands like Xiaomi and Ray-Ban Meta [3] - Xiaomi's AI glasses are expected to surpass total sales of 300,000 units by the end of 2025, with ongoing software optimizations enhancing user experience [3] - The high pricing of Alibaba's Quark AI glasses has led to strong demand, with initial pre-sales exceeding 5,000 units and a significant increase in secondary market prices [3] - Ray-Ban Meta's global sales are projected to reach 1.12 million units by Q3 2025, with a nearly 50% quarter-on-quarter growth [3]

Group 1 - The article highlights a strong start for the convertible bond market in early 2026, driven by positive macroeconomic signals and a return of funds to the market. Key indicators include a manufacturing PMI returning to expansion, improving CPI and PPI, and rising commodity prices, reflecting initial validation of economic recovery expectations [1][2] - The article notes that institutional funds, such as public offerings and insurance capital, are actively positioning themselves in the market during this period, contributing to increased market activity and a rise in margin trading balances [1][2] - Regulatory measures have been introduced to moderate market exuberance, including an increase in the margin requirement for new financing contracts from 80% to 100%, aimed at curbing excessive speculation. This may lead to short-term market volatility but is expected to support long-term stability [1][2] Group 2 - The convertible bond market is expected to maintain a stable performance amid ongoing policy benefits and moderate corporate earnings recovery, despite potential short-term fluctuations. The median price of convertible bonds has risen from 134 to 139 yuan, with the median conversion premium increasing from 33% to 34% [2] - Two core risks in the convertible bond market are identified: the potential for valuation corrections due to cooling equity markets and the risk of forced redemptions impacting valuations. The market may experience short-term fluctuations influenced by seasonal capital movements and regulatory adjustments [2] - As companies begin to disclose their annual performance forecasts, the focus shifts to verifying earnings. The article suggests prioritizing convertible bonds linked to stocks with high earnings growth certainty, particularly in sectors like AI computing, semiconductors, and energy storage [3]

Core Viewpoint - Retail and proprietary businesses are the main drivers of annual performance growth, benefiting from the resonance of allocation power and performance elasticity, with a focus on high-quality leading firms and wealth management characteristics [1]. Group 1: Performance Expectations - The performance of listed securities firms is expected to improve significantly due to active trading and base effects, with a projected year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 46.4% [2]. - For 2025, the adjusted operating revenue of 42 listed securities firms is expected to rise by 34.1% to 565.7 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to reach 216.4 billion yuan [2]. - The Q4 single-quarter profit is projected to be 47.3 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase but a 27% quarter-on-quarter decrease [2]. Group 2: Business Contributions - Active trading has driven significant increases in market transaction volume and margin financing balance, supporting retail business growth alongside the recovery of proprietary business [3]. - For 2025, brokerage and credit businesses are expected to contribute 50.4% to revenue growth, while investment business is projected to contribute 45.5% [3]. - Daily average stock trading volume is expected to reach 2.0576 trillion yuan, a 70% year-on-year increase, and daily average margin financing balance is expected to reach 20.793 trillion yuan, a 33% year-on-year increase [3]. - Brokerage net income and interest net income are expected to grow by 49% and 57% year-on-year, respectively [3]. - Proprietary business income is expected to grow due to the recovery in equity markets and stable bond markets [3]. - Investment banking revenue is projected to increase by 12% year-on-year, supported by a marginal recovery in equity financing [3]. - Asset management business scale is expected to see a slight year-on-year increase, leading to a 4% year-on-year growth in asset management revenue [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends increasing holdings in high-quality leading securities firms that benefit from incremental capital entering the market [4].

国泰海通非银&银行&地产1月专题论坛 2026年1月23日-上海 陆家嘴 · 中国金融信息中心16楼国泰海通旗舰店 13:30-13:35 开场致辞 公司领导 13:35-14:20 践行使命担当,服务居民财富管理 徐海宁-上海秩汇科技有限公司创始人 刘欣琦-国泰海通研究所副所长、金融组长、 非银金融首席分析师 * 本次活动人数有限,请提前报名。 * 参会请联系您的国泰海通对口销售报名 或国泰海通非银金融、银行、地产分析师 研究运营组制作 14:20-15:05 居民财富管理新趋势 金 总-浦发银行财富管理部 15:05-15:50 重点70城房价趋势和2026年研判 李彦国-冰山指数创始人 15:50-16:00 2026房价矛在哪里? 涂力磊-国泰海通证券研究所所长助理、先进制 造组长、房地产首席分析师、中小市值与创新 股权联席首席分析师 16:00-16:10 2026年银行经营趋势展望 马婷婷-国泰海通研究所银行首席分析师 16:10-16:20 重视配置的力量,从机构到居民 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设 ...

2. 减产背后硬逻辑： 测算得巴西棉农面临亏损（成本回报率-15.5%），而竞品二季玉米仍有8.4%回报，且玉米运营成本仅为棉花的1/3。 【 纺服 】 美棉价格历史深度复盘——美国、巴西25/26产量预期双降，美棉安全边际显现 全球棉花供应端迎来巴西、美国两大出口国"双减"，美棉价格在成本倒挂与基差修复双重信号下，底部特征明确，看好棉价上行通道开启。 1. 供给侧收缩预期持续加强： 【巴西】（核心变量）：第一大棉花出口国结束5年产能扩张，CONAB 1/15日最新报告预计25/26年棉花产量同比降6.3%，自25年10月至今每月持续下调预 期。核心产区马托格罗索州减产更为激进，IMEA预计该州产量同比降幅达14.5%。 【美国】WASDE 最新1/12日报告将25/26棉花单产预期大幅下修7.8%，产量下调2.5%，库存消费比回落，库存压力显著减轻。 播种进度滞后： 巴西目前播种率仅8.1%（去年同期14.2%），若错失棉花最佳生长期将进一步加强减产预期。 3. 美棉价格筑底明确： 与成本显著倒挂： 现价（~65美分/磅）显著低于美国平均种植成本（~80美分/磅），并逼近政策抵押贷款利率（54.4美分/磅） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the inventory cycles in the U.S. furniture market, highlighting the dynamics between retailers and wholesalers, and the implications for demand and supply in the furniture industry [1][2]. Group 1: Inventory Cycle Analysis - Retailers are in a passive destocking phase from April 2025 to July 2025, as sales growth outpaces inventory growth, leading to an increase in actual inventory levels [1]. - Wholesalers are in an active restocking phase from October 2024 to August 2025, with inventory growth exceeding revenue growth, indicating a significant increase in actual inventory levels [1]. - By September 2025, wholesalers will transition to a passive destocking phase as revenue growth surpasses inventory growth, despite an increase in actual inventory amounts [1]. Group 2: Brand and Channel Inventory Performance - Furniture brands are experiencing historically low inventory-to-sales ratios, aligning with the trend of retailers reducing inventory since May 2023 [2]. - Home Depot's inventory-to-sales ratio has returned to historical norms, indicating a potential for further restocking, although demand remains constrained [2]. - The overall inventory levels of furniture and building material channel merchants are higher than those of brand merchants, reflecting the trend of wholesalers restocking more than destocking since September 2024 [2]. Group 3: Demand Improvement Pathways - The recovery in the real estate sector, potentially aided by continued interest rate cuts, is expected to enhance retail sales and initiate restocking among retailers [2]. - A low inventory-to-sales ratio suggests that there is room for replenishment, which could lead to an increase in furniture import values and a rebound in midstream manufacturing orders [2].

2C： 高阶引领，重点仍是推进L2+级别的智能车消费。L3落地，汽车的用户价值跃升。 2B： Robotaxi是AI的重要落地渠道。自动驾驶通过Robotaxi，有望更快贡献经济价值。 供应链： 算力、算法、线控底盘。 风险提示： 全球智驾科技发展不及预期，乘用车产销不及预期，原材料价格大幅上涨。 报告来源 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 本公众订阅号(微信号: GTHT RESEARCH )为国泰海通证券股份有限公司(以下简称"国泰海通证券") 研究所依法设立、独立运营的唯一官方订阅号。其他机构或个人在微信平台上以国泰海通研究所名义注 册的，或含有"国泰海通研究"，或含有与国泰海通证券研究所品牌名称相关信息的其他订阅号均不是国 泰海通证券研究所官方订阅号 本订 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the current "transformation bull market" in the Chinese stock market and its implications for investment strategies [1] - Emphasis is placed on emerging technologies as a main investment theme, highlighting the importance of effectively navigating technology investments [1] - The article addresses the balance between yield flexibility and risk control, suggesting strategies for managing these aspects in investment decisions [1]

Macro - The Chinese economy achieved its annual target for 2025, with a GDP growth of 5.0% for the year and a quarterly growth rate of 4.5% in Q4, slightly down due to base effects [3] - Economic characteristics in Q4 showed continued dual differentiation: strong industrial production but structural mismatches in capacity and demand, and a divergence between external and internal demand, with external demand supported by optimized export structures while internal demand lagged due to slow recovery in consumption and investment [3] - The production side showed bright spots, with industrial growth in December reversing previous slowdowns, driven by high-end manufacturing and green transformation, while the service sector's production index grew by 5.0% year-on-year [3] - Consumption showed structural optimization but faced year-end pressure, with rural consumption, online shopping, and upgraded goods performing well, while major consumption sectors like automobiles and real estate showed average performance [3] - Investment continued to face pressure due to funding constraints, insufficient project reserves, and weak demand, leading to a policy focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting new infrastructure and equipment updates to counter external uncertainties and internal weaknesses [3] Real Estate - The rental yield for residential properties has increased from 1.5% to 1.9% from 2020 to 2025, but remains low compared to international standards, with inflation-adjusted yields being a more effective comparison metric [7][8] - In Q4 2025, rental yields plus CPI in second-tier cities began to stabilize and improve, with projections indicating a recovery from 2.3% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 and maintaining that level in 2025 [9] - The proportion of residents willing to buy homes increased to about 16% by the end of December, reflecting improved market confidence, although the proportion of declining listing prices rose to about 19% [10] - Real estate investment is expected to decrease further in 2026, focusing on quality over quantity, with a shift in attention from financial risks to economic contributions from the real estate sector [15][16][17] Aerospace - The launch cadence of the Long March 12 rocket has accelerated, indicating a steady growth in China's commercial space industry, with a record 92 launches in 2025 [22][23] - The commercial space sector is expected to experience rapid development in 2026, with new rocket types set to debut and increased capabilities for satellite internet constellation deployment [23]