Macro and Strategy Research - The US core PCE in May slightly exceeded expectations, primarily driven by core services, while household income saw its largest decline in nearly a year due to reduced government transfers, impacting consumer spending negatively [2][3] - The manufacturing PMI in June remains in contraction territory, indicating cautious production outlooks among businesses due to insufficient orders and accelerating inflation expectations [2] - In Europe, inflation data showed a slight rebound driven by services, and the unemployment rate has slightly increased, which may influence ECB decisions amid ongoing US-EU tariff negotiations [3] Fixed Income Research - The June manufacturing PMI showed improvements in both domestic and external demand, but July's manufacturing sentiment may be constrained by weather factors [5] - After the quarter transition, the funding environment has turned more relaxed, with DR007 dropping below 1.50%, marking a new low for the year [5] - The issuance of bonds in the primary market slowed down, with a total issuance of 56 bonds amounting to 335 billion yuan, reflecting a significant drop in new local special bond issuance in early July [5] Industry Research - In May, the healthcare CPI rose by 0.3% year-on-year, while the pharmaceutical manufacturing PPI fell by 2.0% year-on-year, indicating challenges in the pharmaceutical sector [8] - The pharmaceutical sector saw a slight increase in the stock market, with the SW pharmaceutical industry PE ratio at 27.81 times, representing a 143% premium over the CSI 300 [9] - Recent policies have been introduced to support the pharmaceutical industry, including measures to optimize clinical trial reviews and approvals for innovative drugs, which are expected to enhance the sector's growth [10][11] - The recent approval of the first GCG/GLP-1 dual receptor agonist for weight control by domestic companies highlights the increasing innovation capabilities within China's pharmaceutical sector [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View of the Report The bond market is currently in a period of limited fundamental data and policy calm, lacking a clear main line. The liquidity situation is the key variable affecting the bond market. With loose liquidity at the beginning of the month, the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly. However, the current interest rate curve is relatively flat, and the downward space for long - term interest rates can only be opened after a further decline in short - term interest rates [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Important Event Review - **PMI Data**: In June, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively. The manufacturing production index rose 0.3 percentage points to 51.0%, and the new order index rose 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%. The new export order index rose 0.2 percentage points to 47.7%. The contraction of raw material purchase prices and ex - factory price indices slowed down. The destocking pace of raw materials and finished products slowed down. In non - manufacturing, the construction business activity index rose 1.8 percentage points to 52.8%, while the service business activity index dropped 0.1 percentage points to 50.1%. Considering the influence of high - temperature and typhoon weather, the manufacturing industry may face seasonal decline in economic prosperity [9]. 2. Funding Price - **Post - Quarter Funding Eased**: From June 27 to July 3, the central bank net - withdrew over 50 billion yuan in the open market. After the quarter, the funding situation returned to a loose state. DR007 fell below 1.50%, and R007 dropped to around 1.52%, both lower than the levels in the first half of June. The yield of 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit also dropped significantly, reaching a new low of around 1.61% [10]. 3. Primary Market - **Slower Issuance at the Beginning of the Quarter**: From June 27 to July 3, 56 interest - rate bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 335 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 202.1 billion yuan. The scale of newly - added local special bonds increased significantly at the end of June, possibly due to quarterly or semi - annual issuance progress requirements, and decreased significantly at the beginning of July [15]. 4. Secondary Market - **Strong Oscillation and Steeper Curve**: From June 27 to July 3, the yields of all - term treasury bonds declined, with relatively larger declines in medium - and short - term treasury bond yields, mainly driven by loose funding. The bond market had limited incremental information, and the interest rate oscillation range was small. In this market situation, investors pursued spreads such as those between new and old bonds [16]. 5. Market Outlook - **Fundamentals**: Recent incremental information mainly focuses on changes in the trade environment, such as the indirect impact of trade agreements between the US and other countries on China [21]. - **Policy**: At the central level, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1 discussed issues such as promoting the construction of a unified national market and high - quality development of the marine economy, which is helpful for improving the current low - inflation situation. In terms of monetary policy, compared with the first - quarter meeting, the second - quarter meeting communiqué had three main changes. The possibility of introducing incremental policies in July is limited, and the monetary policy mainly focuses on "implementing existing policies + flexible adjustment", with attention on open - market operations [22]. - **Funding**: Liquidity remains the key variable affecting the bond market. Liquidity is mainly loose at the beginning of the month, and the main point of contention is whether the central bank will buy short - term treasury bonds in the open market [22].

Industry Overview - The medical and biological industry is experiencing a policy-driven innovation development, with multiple supportive policies introduced to enhance the sector's health and growth [1][5][6] - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for healthcare was 100.3, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.3% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [14][21] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for pharmaceutical manufacturing was 98.0 in May, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.5% [21][23] Financial Performance - From January to May, the cumulative revenue of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry was 994.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, while the total profit was 135.32 billion yuan, down 4.7% year-on-year [23][29] - In May, the export value of medical instruments and devices was 1.637 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, while the cumulative export value for the year reached 7.946 billion USD, up 6.0% [29][30] Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.90% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.23% in June, while the medical and biological sector saw a modest increase of 0.70% [4][63] - As of June 30, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the medical and biological industry was 27.81, with a valuation premium of 143% compared to the CSI 300 index [4][69] Policy Developments - The National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) has proposed measures to optimize the clinical trial review and approval process for innovative drugs, aiming to complete reviews within 30 working days for eligible applications [5][76] - The State Council is working on optimizing the collection policies for drugs and consumables, emphasizing the need for better collaboration in the healthcare system and improving the compensation mechanisms for public hospitals [5][77] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities related to innovative drugs and their supply chains, particularly those showing performance recovery and benefiting from policy optimizations [6][78] - Specific sectors to watch include the CXO sector, which may benefit from improving overseas demand and order recovery, as well as the medical device and pharmaceutical sectors that are positively impacted by optimized procurement rules [6][78]

晨会纪要（2025/07/04） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.04） 宏观及策略研究 政策部署两大方向，短期市场强势震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 基金研究 小盘成长风格表现突出，主动权益基金发行市场火热——公募基金 7 月月报 金融工程研究 主要指数全部上涨，两融余额小幅上升——融资融券 7 月月报 行业研究 证 国补夯实家居业绩改善基础，持续关注高景气的宠物食品行业——轻工制造 &纺织服饰行业 7 月投资策略展望 券 研 究 报 告 晨会纪要（2025/07/04） 宏观及策略研究 政策部署两大方向，短期市场强势震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（6 月 2 ...

Industry Overview - The domestic furniture industry showed significant growth in the first five months of 2025, with retail sales totaling 75.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.40% [2][19] - The furniture manufacturing sector experienced a revenue decline of 3.90%, totaling 248.87 billion yuan [19] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has effectively stimulated consumer spending, leading to rapid sales growth in related products [19] Market Performance - From June 2 to June 30, the light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.12 percentage points, with a return of 3.62% compared to the index's 2.50% [4][49] - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.56 percentage points, achieving a return of 1.94% [4][53] Strategic Recommendations - The report recommends increasing holdings in several companies, including Oppein Home (增持), Sophia (增持), Semir Apparel (增持), Pathfinder (增持), and Guibao Pet (增持) [6][55] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to continue driving growth in the home goods sector, with central government funding of 138 billion yuan allocated for the third and fourth quarters [6][57] Key Data Points - In May, furniture exports amounted to 5.637 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 9.40% [21][58] - The pet food industry saw a significant increase in sales during the "618" shopping festival, with total sales reaching 7.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 36.36% [6][57] - The retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles totaled 613.84 billion yuan in the first five months, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.30% [2][40]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In June, all major market indices' valuations were adjusted upwards. In terms of price - to - earnings ratio and price - to - book ratio, the historical percentile increases of CSI 300 and CSI All - Share were among the top, while the ChiNext Index remained at a historical low. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 23 industries rose, with the top 5 gainers being communication, national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, electronics, and media; the top 5 losers were food and beverage, beauty care, household appliances, coal, and transportation [1]. - In June, 70 new funds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 62.728 billion yuan. The issuance of active equity funds was booming, while the issuance of passive equity funds decreased slightly. Only commodity - type funds declined, with a 1.66% drop, and the largest gain was in equity - biased funds, up 2.68% [2]. - From the perspective of fund style indices, the growth style outperformed the value style, and the large - cap style underperformed the small - cap style. Overall, the mid - cap growth style performed outstandingly, rising 5.83%, while the large - cap value style had the smallest increase, about 2.52% [2]. - In the ETF market, last month, there was a net inflow of 59.605 billion yuan. Bond - type ETFs had a net inflow of over 90 billion yuan, and stock - type ETFs had a net outflow of 31.54 billion yuan [3]. - In June, the risk - parity model rose 1.59%, and the risk - budget model rose 2.34% [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Month's Market Review 1.1 Domestic Market Situation - In June, all major indices in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose. The ChiNext Index rose by over 8%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and CSI 500 rose by over 4%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 23 industries rose. The top 5 gainers were communication, national defense and military industry, non - ferrous metals, electronics, and media; the top 5 losers were food and beverage, beauty care, household appliances, coal, and transportation. In the bond market, the ChinaBond Composite Full - Price Index rose 0.31%, and the total full - price indices of ChinaBond Treasury bonds, financial bonds, and credit bonds rose between 0.13% and 0.40%. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 3.34%. In the commodity market, the Nanhua Commodity Index rose 4.03% [13]. 1.2 European, American, and Asia - Pacific Market Situation - In June, most European, American, and Asia - Pacific markets rose. In the US stock market, the S&P 500 rose 4.89%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 4.21%, and the Nasdaq rose 6.57%. In the European market, the French CAC 40 fell 1.11%, and the German DAX fell 0.37%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Hang Seng Index rose 3.36%, and the Nikkei 225 rose 6.64% [21]. 1.3 Market Valuation Situation - In June, all major market indices' valuations were adjusted upwards. In terms of price - to - earnings ratio and price - to - book ratio, the historical percentile increases of CSI 300 and CSI All - Share were among the top, while the ChiNext Index remained at a historical low. Among industries, the top five industries with the highest historical percentiles of price - to - earnings ratio in the Shenwan primary index last month were real estate, banking, automotive, chemical, and electronics. The real estate industry's price - to - earnings ratio percentile reached 96.6%. The five industries with lower historical percentiles of price - to - earnings ratio were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, non - bank finance, food and beverage, light manufacturing, and household appliances, all with percentiles less than 25% [24]. 2. Overall Situation of Public Offering Funds 2.1 Fund Issuance Situation - In June, 70 new funds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 62.728 billion yuan. Among them, 33 stock - type funds were issued with a scale of 11.646 billion yuan; 14 hybrid funds were issued with a scale of 6.317 billion yuan; 14 bond - type funds were issued with a scale of 35.293 billion yuan; 4 FOF funds were issued with a scale of 7.5 billion yuan; 3 REITs funds were issued with a scale of 1.3 billion yuan; and 2 QDII funds were issued with a scale of 0.67 billion yuan. A total of 17 active equity funds were issued with a scale of 6.738 billion yuan, and 36 index funds were issued with a scale of 28.472 billion yuan. The issuance of active equity funds increased significantly, while that of passive equity funds decreased slightly [32]. 2.2 Fund Market Return Situation - In June, only commodity - type funds declined, with a 1.66% drop, and the largest gain was in equity - biased funds, up 2.68%, with a positive return ratio of 97.63%. From the perspective of fund style indices, the growth style outperformed the value style, and the large - cap style underperformed the small - cap style. The mid - cap growth style performed outstandingly, rising 5.83%, while the large - cap value style had the smallest increase, about 2.52%. Generally, smaller - scale funds in the equity market performed better. The large - scale funds with a scale of 4 - 10 billion had the largest average increase of 2.80%, with a positive return ratio of 97.52%, while the super - large - scale funds over 10 billion had the smallest increase of 2.16%, with a positive return ratio of 88.46% [2][40][43]. 2.3 Active Equity Fund Position Situation - Using Lasso regression to measure the positions of active equity funds, the position on June 30, 2025, was 75.44%, a decrease of 3.76 percentage points from the previous month [47]. 3. ETF Fund Situation - In the ETF market, last month, there was a net inflow of 59.605 billion yuan. Bond - type ETFs had a net inflow of over 90 billion yuan, and stock - type ETFs had a net outflow of 31.54 billion yuan, with funds flowing from broad - based indices such as CSI 300 to bond funds. In terms of liquidity, the average daily trading volume of the overall ETF market this period reached 265.76 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume reached 126.808 billion shares, and the average daily turnover rate reached 8.59%. At the individual bond level, most broad - based index targets had net outflows except for the CSI A500 Index. Huatai - PineBridge CSI 300 ETF had a net outflow of 5.45 billion yuan, while Huatai - PineBridge CSI A500 ETF had a net inflow of 13.54 billion yuan. Among the most actively traded targets, Financial Technology ETF, Hong Kong Securities ETF, Communication Equipment ETF, ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF Huabao, and 5G ETF had the highest monthly gains, rising between 15.7% and 18.8%. Food and Beverage ETF, Consumption 30 ETF, Wine ETF, Leading Home Appliance ETF, and Southeast Asia Technology ETF had the highest monthly losses, falling between 1.6% and 4.4%. In terms of fund flow, the top funds with net inflows also included Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovation Pharmaceutical ETF, Bank ETF, A500ETF Harvest, and Hong Kong Non - Bank ETF; the top funds with net outflows also included CSI 300ETF E Fund, ChiNext ETF, Harvest CSI 300ETF, and CSI A500ETF Fullgoal [3][51][52]. 4. Model Operation Situation - Four types of large - asset allocation models were constructed using stocks, bonds, commodities, and QDII. In June, the risk - parity model rose 1.59%, and the risk - budget model rose 2.34%. Since 2015, the annualized return of the risk - parity model has been 4.64%, with a maximum drawdown of 2.31%; the annualized return of the risk - budget model has been 4.45%, with a maximum drawdown of 9.80%. Next month, the asset allocation weights of the models remain unchanged. For the risk - parity model, the ratio of stocks: bonds: commodities: QDII is 6%: 70%: 12%: 11%; for the risk - budget model, it is 13%: 52%: 9%: 25% [62][63][65].

Fixed Income Research - The overall yield of credit bonds decreased in June, with most issuance rates down by -16 BP to 4 BP, and the issuance scale of credit bonds increased month-on-month [3] - The net financing amount of credit bonds increased, with corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds showing positive net financing, while enterprise bonds and targeted tools showed negative net financing [3] - The credit spread remained stable with a slight contraction in most categories, and the AAA-rated 3-year and 5-year bonds are still at a relatively high percentile, indicating potential for slight compression [3] - The report suggests a strategy of increasing allocation during market adjustments, focusing on the trend of interest rate bonds and the coupon value of individual bonds [3] Financial Engineering Research - All major indices in the A-share market rose last week, with the ChiNext Index showing the largest increase of 4.06%, while the Shanghai Composite Index had the smallest increase of 0.07% [5] - The margin balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased to 1,848.694 billion yuan, with a notable increase in the financing balance [7] - Non-bank financial, electronics, and computer sectors saw significant net buying, while oil, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical sectors had less net buying [7] Industry Research - The central bank's proactive signals and easing Middle East tensions are positively impacting the metal industry [9] - Steel demand is expected to weaken due to weather factors, but the decline is anticipated to be limited, while raw material prices are decreasing [9] - Copper prices are supported by tight supply and low inventory, but trade uncertainties remain a concern [9] - The gold market may see reduced demand due to easing geopolitical tensions, with future price influences from economic data and geopolitical situations [10] - The rare earth market is at a cyclical low, but policies are optimizing supply, with new demand from humanoid robots and new energy sectors [10] Mechanical Equipment Industry - The mechanical equipment sector outperformed the broader market, with a 2.85% increase in the index compared to a 2.67% rise in the CSI 300 [13] - Excavator sales in May showed a slight year-on-year increase, but domestic sales declined, attributed to seasonal factors [13] - The successful hosting of the humanoid robot exhibition indicates a trend towards mass production, suggesting investment opportunities in this sector [14]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Neutral" while the non-ferrous metals industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the central bank's liquidity release is stabilizing market expectations, with the steel demand expected to weaken further but with limited downside [14] - For copper, tight supply and low inventory are supporting prices, but trade uncertainties and seasonal demand weakness are concerns [39] - The aluminum market is facing macro uncertainties, but low domestic inventory is providing some support for prices [46] - Gold demand is expected to weaken due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with future price influences from economic data and geopolitical factors [51] - The lithium market is under pressure from oversupply, with prices expected to remain weak [56] Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The report notes that steel inventory is increasing as the off-season deepens, with a marginal increase in fundamental pressure [14] - As of June 27, the total steel inventory was 13.325 million tons, a 0.02% increase from the previous week but a 23.42% decrease year-on-year [25] - The average price index for steel on June 27 was 3,344.56 CNY/ton, down 0.49% from the previous week [37] Copper Industry - The report indicates that copper prices are supported by tight supply and low inventory, with LME copper prices at 10,100 USD/ton and domestic prices at 80,300 CNY/ton as of June 27 [42] - The copper refining fees were reported at -43.57 USD/ton and -4.36 cents/pound [40] Aluminum Industry - The aluminum market is characterized by stable production and seasonal demand weakness, with LME aluminum prices at 2,600 USD/ton and domestic prices at 20,900 CNY/ton as of June 27 [47] - The report mentions that the average price of alumina was 3,121 CNY/ton, down 2.38% from the previous week [47] Precious Metals - The report states that gold prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, with COMEX gold closing at 3,286.10 USD/ounce and SHFE gold at 768.64 CNY/gram on June 27 [51] - Silver prices showed a slight increase, with COMEX silver at 36.17 USD/ounce and SHFE silver at 8,792.00 CNY/kg [51] New Energy Metals - The lithium market is facing oversupply, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 60,400 CNY/ton, a 0.33% increase from the previous week [57] - The report indicates that the supply pressure in the lithium market is expected to continue [56] Rare Earth and Minor Metals - The report notes that light rare earth prices are at 444,500 CNY/ton, with a slight increase, while heavy rare earth prices have seen a decrease [69] - Tungsten concentrate prices are stable at 172,000 CNY/ton, while APT prices have decreased slightly [73]

Core Insights - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, with a focus on the production rhythm of humanoid robots and the potential investment opportunities in the industry chain [8][70][71] - The report recommends "overweight" ratings for specific companies including SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC [2][71] Industry Overview - In May 2025, excavator sales reached 18,202 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.12%, with domestic sales at 8,392 units, down 1.48% [7][24][70] - The report highlights that the domestic construction machinery market is currently in a renewal cycle, with urban renewal initiatives expected to drive steady demand for engineering machinery [70][71] - The humanoid robot industry is progressing well, with major manufacturers like Tesla clarifying their mass production routes, which is anticipated to accelerate the development of the industry chain [70][71] Market Performance - From June 1 to July 1, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 2.67%, while the Shenwan Mechanical Equipment industry increased by 2.85%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.18 percentage points [5][59] - As of July 1, 2025, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Mechanical Equipment industry was 26.75 times, with a valuation premium of 115.88% compared to the CSI 300 [67][68] Key Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a focus on investment opportunities in companies involved in urban renewal and humanoid robotics, emphasizing the importance of these sectors for future growth [70][71] - Specific companies recommended for investment include SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC, all rated as "overweight" [2][71]

Macro and Strategy Research - The US Treasury market has a history of over 200 years, with significant events shaping its development, including the Civil War and the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system. The US bond market accounts for over 40% of the global market [2][3] - As of the end of 2024, the total US national debt is projected to reach $28.3 trillion, nearly doubling since 2017. The issuance of debt follows principles aimed at minimizing expected costs and providing predictable issuance guidance [2][3] - The trading of US Treasuries occurs mainly in Tokyo, London, and New York, with an average daily trading volume increasing by 1.8 times over the past decade. The investor structure is diverse, with overseas investors, the Federal Reserve, and money market funds accounting for about 60% of the market [3] - Long-term US Treasury yields are influenced by expected real rates, expected inflation, actual risk premiums, and inflation risk premiums. Recent data shows that the 10-year Treasury yield is slightly below last year's level, with a trend of first declining and then rising [3] Industry Research - The easing of US-China tariff issues is expected to support domestic exports, with a focus on companies with global layouts that will have competitive advantages [7][8] - H&M Group reported a 1% year-on-year increase in net sales for the first half of 2025, indicating resilience in the retail sector [7] - Xiaomi launched its first AI glasses, which are lighter and more suitable for Asian users compared to competitors. The Chinese smart glasses market is projected to reach 2.9 million units by 2025, with Xiaomi expected to capture 10% of the market share [8] - The light industry and textile sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.68 percentage points and 1.97 percentage points, respectively, during the week of June 23 to June 27 [7][8]