Core Insights - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, with a focus on the production rhythm of humanoid robots and the potential investment opportunities in the industry chain [8][70][71] - The report recommends "overweight" ratings for specific companies including SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC [2][71] Industry Overview - In May 2025, excavator sales reached 18,202 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.12%, with domestic sales at 8,392 units, down 1.48% [7][24][70] - The report highlights that the domestic construction machinery market is currently in a renewal cycle, with urban renewal initiatives expected to drive steady demand for engineering machinery [70][71] - The humanoid robot industry is progressing well, with major manufacturers like Tesla clarifying their mass production routes, which is anticipated to accelerate the development of the industry chain [70][71] Market Performance - From June 1 to July 1, 2025, the CSI 300 index rose by 2.67%, while the Shenwan Mechanical Equipment industry increased by 2.85%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.18 percentage points [5][59] - As of July 1, 2025, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Mechanical Equipment industry was 26.75 times, with a valuation premium of 115.88% compared to the CSI 300 [67][68] Key Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a focus on investment opportunities in companies involved in urban renewal and humanoid robotics, emphasizing the importance of these sectors for future growth [70][71] - Specific companies recommended for investment include SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Hengli Hydraulic, and CRRC, all rated as "overweight" [2][71]

Macro and Strategy Research - The US Treasury market has a history of over 200 years, with significant events shaping its development, including the Civil War and the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system. The US bond market accounts for over 40% of the global market [2][3] - As of the end of 2024, the total US national debt is projected to reach $28.3 trillion, nearly doubling since 2017. The issuance of debt follows principles aimed at minimizing expected costs and providing predictable issuance guidance [2][3] - The trading of US Treasuries occurs mainly in Tokyo, London, and New York, with an average daily trading volume increasing by 1.8 times over the past decade. The investor structure is diverse, with overseas investors, the Federal Reserve, and money market funds accounting for about 60% of the market [3] - Long-term US Treasury yields are influenced by expected real rates, expected inflation, actual risk premiums, and inflation risk premiums. Recent data shows that the 10-year Treasury yield is slightly below last year's level, with a trend of first declining and then rising [3] Industry Research - The easing of US-China tariff issues is expected to support domestic exports, with a focus on companies with global layouts that will have competitive advantages [7][8] - H&M Group reported a 1% year-on-year increase in net sales for the first half of 2025, indicating resilience in the retail sector [7] - Xiaomi launched its first AI glasses, which are lighter and more suitable for Asian users compared to competitors. The Chinese smart glasses market is projected to reach 2.9 million units by 2025, with Xiaomi expected to capture 10% of the market share [8] - The light industry and textile sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.68 percentage points and 1.97 percentage points, respectively, during the week of June 23 to June 27 [7][8]

Macro and Strategy Research - The manufacturing PMI for June 2025 is reported at 49.7%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing sentiment, driven by the continuous release of domestic demand policies [2][3] - The production index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 51.0%, while the new orders index rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%, returning to the expansion zone [2][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5%, with the construction sector showing a significant increase of 1.8 percentage points to 52.8% [3] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 50.7%, reflecting a synchronized recovery in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [3][4] Financial Engineering Research - The report explores the implementation of personal pension systems, including the introduction of index funds as investment options [5] - A total of 85 equity index funds have been included in the personal pension product catalog, with 66 being passive index funds [5] - The analysis of long-term investment in selected indices shows that longer investment periods yield more stable returns, with the dividend index outperforming other broad-based indices [6] Margin Financing and Securities Lending - As of June 25, 2025, the margin financing balance in the A-share market is reported at 18,236.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 370.86 billion yuan from the end of the previous year [8] - The report indicates a structural change in margin financing, with small-cap stocks seeing an increase in both financing and lending balances, while large-cap stocks experienced a decline [8][9] - The net buying amounts in the automotive, machinery, and pharmaceutical sectors were significant, while the non-bank financial and electronic sectors saw lower net buying [8][9] Public Fund Weekly Report - The report highlights a significant inflow of funds into the CSI A500 index, exceeding 70 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 index experienced substantial outflows [11][12] - The overall equity fund market saw a decrease in average positions, with a drop of 3.07 percentage points to 72.31% as of June 27, 2025 [12] - The ETF market experienced a net inflow of 13.94 billion yuan, with bond ETFs continuing to attract investments [12] Multi-Factor Stock Selection Model - The report introduces a multi-factor model using random forests to enhance stock selection, capturing non-linear relationships and complex interactions in data [14][16] - The model outperformed the CSI 500 index in terms of total returns and risk-adjusted metrics, demonstrating the practical value of machine learning in quantitative trading [17]

Group 1: Industrial Enterprises Profit Analysis - In the first five months of 2025, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with a significant drop of 9.1% in May [3][4] - The decline in profits is attributed to multiple factors including reduced working days, tariff adjustments causing delays in orders and production, and a decrease in both volume and price, leading to a 2.7% increase in operating income [4][5] - The profit margin for the first five months was 4.97%, down 4.2% year-on-year, indicating a worsening profitability situation for industrial enterprises [4][5] Group 2: Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic report indicates that the Chinese economy has maintained stable growth despite external pressures, with a GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 2025, surpassing market expectations [8] - The report anticipates a gradual slowdown in economic growth in the latter half of 2025 due to declining export momentum and diminishing policy effects, with infrastructure investment being crucial for achieving annual GDP growth targets [8][9] - The fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with potential measures including the issuance of government bonds to support economic growth [9] Group 3: Fixed Income Market Strategy - The fixed income market saw a significant increase in the issuance of government bonds in the first half of 2025, with net financing close to 3.4 trillion yuan, double that of the same period in 2024 [10][11] - The report suggests that the bond market will remain in a volatile state, with limited opportunities for significant trends, emphasizing the importance of tactical trading strategies [16] - The anticipated monetary policy adjustments, including potential rate cuts, are expected to influence the bond market dynamics positively [16] Group 4: Metal Industry Investment Strategy - The metal industry report highlights strong price trends for copper, aluminum, gold, cobalt, and rare earth elements, with gold expected to maintain upward momentum due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and anticipated interest rate cuts [23][25] - The report notes a recovery in rare earth export demand, driven by the growth in the new energy and robotics sectors, following recent adjustments in export controls [25][26] - Investment strategies recommend focusing on companies with strong resource bases and cost control capabilities in the gold and rare earth sectors [27] Group 5: Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Sector - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing positive momentum, with significant developments in high-end medical device innovation and new drug approvals [28][29] - The report indicates a rebound in the pharmaceutical market, driven by improved policies and a reduction in negative impacts from previous regulations [30] - Investment opportunities are suggested in sectors benefiting from policy optimization and improving performance metrics, particularly in the CXO and medical device segments [30]

固 定 收 益 研 究 固定收益半年报 大浪难寻，细浪掘金 ――利率债 2025 年下半年投资策略报告 分析师： 王哲语 SAC NO： S1150524070001 2025 年 6 月 27 日 2025 年上半年市场回顾 资金价格：2025 年上半年，资金面先紧后松。一季度资金面偏紧且波幅较 大，与央行稳汇率防空转、银行负债压力加剧及政府债供给规模较高有关。 二季度资金价格趋降趋稳，主要源于，在关税冲击下，央行积极维稳资金 面，叠加 5 月降准降息直接带动资金价格下移。 一级市场：2025 年上半年，利率债供给加量，发行规模和净融资规模均远高 于 2024 年同期，其中，国债净融资规模接近 3.4 万亿元，约为 2024 年同期 的 2 倍。节奏上，国债发行主要在二季度提速；地方债则在一季度发行放 量，与国债发行节奏形成错位；政金债发行节奏较为平滑。 二级市场：2025 年上半年，利率先上后下，曲线走平。一季度利率出现较为 明显的上行调整，主要源于"宽货币"向"稳货币"甚至"紧货币"转变， 资金利空逐渐由短端向长端传导，带动曲线呈现熊平特征。二季度"关税交 易"是主线，4 月利率受关税避险和宽松预期升温 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" for the next 12 months, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the CSI 300 index [58][70]. Core Insights - The report highlights the approval of measures by the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) to support the innovation of high-end medical devices, which is expected to enhance the industry’s growth [16][17]. - The report notes that from January to May 2025, there were 167 million instances of employee medical insurance personal account mutual aid, amounting to 22.026 billion yuan [4][16]. - Dupilumab has received FDA approval for the treatment of bullous pemphigoid, marking a significant advancement in targeted therapies [18]. Industry News - The NMPA has approved measures to optimize the lifecycle regulation supporting high-end medical device innovation, which includes ten specific actions aimed at enhancing the development of innovative medical technologies [16][17]. - The report mentions the upcoming ADA conference, where numerous pharmaceutical companies will showcase their innovative drug research, suggesting potential investment opportunities in related sectors [8][57]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing optimization of centralized procurement policies, which is expected to mitigate negative impacts on the industry and improve performance in related sectors [8][57]. Market Performance - The report indicates that during the week of June 20-26, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.57%, while the pharmaceutical and biological sector increased by 1.34%, with all sub-sectors showing positive growth [6][47]. - As of June 26, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the pharmaceutical and biological industry was 27.45, with a valuation premium of 138% compared to the CSI 300 index [51][58]. Company Announcements - Kintor Pharmaceutical announced that the NMPA has accepted the new drug application for Shurike Aolun's injection for the treatment of advanced gastric/esophageal junction adenocarcinoma [27]. - HBM7020, developed by Hengrui Medicine, has entered a global strategic cooperation agreement with Otsuka Pharmaceutical for the treatment of autoimmune diseases [28][32]. - The report also highlights various collaborations and licensing agreements among companies, indicating a trend towards strategic partnerships in the industry [33][34][35].

Group 1: Profit Trends - In the first five months of 2025, the profit of large-scale industrial enterprises decreased by 1.1% year-on-year[1] - In May 2025, the profit of large-scale industrial enterprises fell by 9.1% year-on-year[1] - The operating revenue of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 2.7% year-on-year, a decline of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous four months[1] Group 2: Contributing Factors - The decline in profit is attributed to insufficient demand, price pressures, and a high base from the previous year[3] - The profit margin for large-scale industrial enterprises was 4.97%, down 4.2% year-on-year, with a decline of 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous four months[1] - The industrial added value grew by 6.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from January to April 2025[1] Group 3: Sector Performance - Among 41 industrial categories, over half achieved positive profit growth in the first five months[1] - Sectors such as mining, aerospace, and food processing showed significant profit growth[1] - The equipment manufacturing sector, particularly in technology-intensive areas, continued to see double-digit profit growth[1] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The "export rush effect" in June is expected to gradually manifest, potentially leading to marginal improvements in profit growth[3] - Risks include the possibility that the export rush effect may not meet expectations and uncertainties in the external environment[4]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the gold market is expected to maintain upward momentum due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and sustained central bank gold purchases [3][6][62] - The performance of the metal industry in H1 2025 shows that the steel sector underperformed with a 0.62% increase, while the non-ferrous metal sector outperformed with a 15.34% increase [18][19] - Key metals such as gold, cobalt, antimony, and praseodymium-neodymium oxide have shown significant price increases compared to the end of last year and the same period last year, with gold prices rising by 25.24% year-to-date [2][41] Group 2 - The report indicates that the demand for rare earth exports is expected to recover due to relaxed export controls and growing needs in the new energy and robotics sectors [7][10] - The solid-state battery industry is progressing rapidly, with several domestic automakers planning small-scale applications by 2026-2027, and key manufacturers establishing production lines for solid-state battery materials [8][10] - Investment strategies recommend focusing on companies with rich gold resources, strong cost control, and potential for production growth, as well as those in the rare earth and solid-state battery materials sectors [9][10]

Macro and Strategy Research - The overall economic operation is stable, with certain resilience shown under policy support. However, the export sector faces downward pressure and high base effects, while consumption is also under pressure due to reduced national subsidies and demand front-loading. Investment in infrastructure is expected to play a stabilizing role, and manufacturing is likely to maintain relatively high growth due to policy support [2][3] - Domestic monetary policy will focus on stabilizing growth and combating deflation, with expectations of continued liquidity easing. Interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions are anticipated to be implemented as external conditions change [2][3] A-Share Market - The A-share market has maintained stable trading under the management's policy to "sustain stability and activate the capital market." The liquidity environment is gradually expanding, with a balanced investment and financing backdrop expected to yield better results in mergers, acquisitions, and the growth of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [3] - The performance of the A-share market is expected to remain stable, supported by strong liquidity expectations. The market is likely to experience structural opportunities, with indices having conditions for a rebound as external risks are mitigated and trading becomes more active [3] - Investment opportunities in the second half of the year include sectors such as pharmaceuticals and defense driven by overseas expansion, TMT sectors benefiting from AI trends, and banking sectors supported by low interest rates and insurance capital market entry [3] Fund Research - As of June 18, 2025, the major indices in the A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.11% and the ChiNext Index declining by 4.06%. The first half of 2025 saw frequent sector rotations, with technology and dividend themes alternating in performance [4][5] - Active equity funds outperformed indices, with ordinary stock funds and equity-mixed funds averaging over 5% gains. Bond funds showed slower growth, while QDII funds continued their strong performance from 2024, averaging a 10.44% increase [5][6] - By the end of Q1 2025, active equity fund positions increased compared to Q4 2024, with the highest over-allocated sectors being electronics, power equipment, food and beverage, and pharmaceuticals [6] Industry Research - The light industry and textile sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index as of June 24, 2025. The light industry saw a revenue decline of 0.78% year-on-year, while the textile sector experienced a 13.33% revenue drop [11][12] - The home appliance and electric two-wheeler sectors are expected to benefit from the deepening of the old-for-new policy, with significant growth in furniture retail sales [11][12] - The new consumption perspective highlights the emotional value and rise of domestic brands, particularly in the pet food market, which is projected to grow significantly by 2027 [12][13] - The investment strategy maintains a neutral rating for the light industry and textile sectors, with specific stocks recommended for "overweight" ratings, including Oppein Home (603833) and Sophia (002572) [13]

Group 1: Market and Performance Review - The light industry and textile apparel sectors have outperformed the CSI 300 index, with textile apparel rising by 2.05% and light industry by 2.43% as of June 24, 2025 [21][22] - In Q1 2025, the light industry saw a revenue decline of 0.78% year-on-year, while the textile apparel sector experienced a 13.33% decline in revenue [25][29] - The light industry’s net profit decreased by 18.85% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while the textile apparel sector's net profit fell by 5.56% [25][29] Group 2: Home and Electric Two-Wheeler Industries - The home and electric two-wheeler sectors are expected to benefit from the deepening of the old-for-new policy, which is anticipated to improve demand and sales [37][44] - In the first five months of 2025, the retail sales of furniture increased by 21.40% year-on-year, significantly boosted by the old-for-new policy [43][44] - The electric two-wheeler industry faced challenges, with a projected 10.55% decline in sales for 2024, but the old-for-new policy is expected to support sales recovery [59][65] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - The "谷子" economy, driven by Z generation consumers who value emotional and self-satisfying purchases, is projected to reach a market size of 1,689 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 40.63% year-on-year [7][79] - The pet food market is expected to grow to 3,002 billion yuan by 2024, with a significant increase in consumer preference for domestic brands [97][105] - The sanitary products market is also evolving, with non-leading domestic brands showing potential for growth due to the rise of e-commerce and consumer preferences for single products [7][105]