晨会纪要（2025/05/16） 宏观及策略研究 外部环境显著改善，市场机会关注择时——A 股市场投资策略周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 晨会纪要（2025/05/16） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.16） 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（5 月 9 日-5 月 15 日），重要指数多数收涨；其中，上证综指收涨 0.86%，创业板指收涨 0.68%； 风格层面，沪深 300 收涨 1.41%，中证 500 收跌 1.01%。成交量方面有所缩量，两市统计区间内成交 6.26 万亿元，日均成交额达到 1.25 万亿元，较前三个交易日的日均成交额减少 1137.47 亿元。行业方面，申万一 级行业涨多跌少，其中，美容护理、银行、非银金融行业涨幅居前，而计算机、电子、国防军工行业跌幅 居前。 2、数据方面 2025 年 4 月社融同比多增超 1.2 万亿元，其中政府债券融资是主要支撑项，与 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most major indices rise last week, with the ChiNext Index experiencing the largest increase of 3.82% [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.77%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.04%, the CSI 300 by 2.30%, the SSE 50 by 2.28%, and the CSI 500 by 0.72% [2] - As of May 13, the margin trading balance in the two markets was 1,804.849 billion yuan, an increase of 8.630 billion yuan from the previous week [2] - The average number of investors participating in margin trading was 350,743, up 12.32% from the previous week [2] Industry Insights - In April, excavator sales reached 22,100 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [5] - Loader sales in April totaled 11,700 units, with a year-on-year growth of 19.2% [5] - The cumulative sales of excavators from January to April were 83,500 units, up 21.4% year-on-year, with domestic sales accounting for 49,100 units, reflecting a 31.9% increase [6] - The average operating rate of construction machinery in the first quarter was 44.67%, with 12 provinces exceeding 50% [6] Company Announcements - China CNR Corporation disclosed recent major contracts totaling approximately 54.74 billion yuan [5] - Xuchang Investment plans to increase its stake in Huanghe Xuanfeng by 100 million to 200 million yuan [5] Stock Performance - From May 7 to May 13, the CSI 300 index rose by 2.30%, while the machinery equipment sector increased by 1.95%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.35 percentage points [5] - As of May 13, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the machinery equipment sector was 27.17 times, with a valuation premium of 128.62% over the CSI 300 [6] Future Outlook - The report maintains a "positive" outlook for the industry, highlighting the expected increase in demand for construction machinery driven by improved operating conditions [6] - Tesla's updates on humanoid robots indicate a clear path to mass production, potentially accelerating the development of the related industry chain [6] - The report recommends maintaining "overweight" ratings for companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, and China CNR Corporation [6]

Fixed Income Research - The issuance rates for credit bonds mostly increased, with an overall change range of 0 BP to 8 BP during the period from May 5 to May 11 [2] - The issuance scale of credit bonds increased on a month-on-month basis, with corporate bonds showing zero issuance while other varieties saw an increase in issuance amounts [2] - The net financing amount for credit bonds increased month-on-month, with corporate bonds showing negative net financing while other varieties showed positive net financing [2] - In the secondary market, the transaction amount of credit bonds increased month-on-month, with all varieties seeing an increase in transaction amounts [2] - The yield of credit bonds decreased across the board, with a relatively larger decline in the short end [2] - The credit spread showed differentiation among various types of bonds, with short-term spreads widening and medium to long-term spreads narrowing overall [2] - The report suggests that despite market fluctuations, the conditions for a comprehensive bear market in credit bonds are not sufficient, and future yields are expected to enter a downward channel [2] Industry Research - Metals - The steel industry is under significant profit pressure, with a projected year-on-year decline of 131.74% in net profit for 2024, while Q1 2025 shows a substantial recovery with a year-on-year increase of 549.88% [5] - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to see a year-on-year net profit growth of 1.77% in 2024, with a significant increase of 68.55% in Q1 2025 [6] - The precious metals sector performed well, with a year-on-year net profit increase of 40.68% in 2024 and 44.88% in Q1 2025, supported by geopolitical factors and central bank gold purchases [6][11] - The report highlights the strategic value reassessment of medium and heavy rare earths due to export control policies, leading to price increases in the overseas market [8][11] - The investment strategy suggests focusing on high-quality state-owned enterprises and bonds with strong guarantees, as well as considering opportunities in undervalued real estate bonds [3][5] Industry Research - Light Industry & Textiles - The light industry and textile sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the light industry gaining 3.02% and textiles gaining 3.47% during the period from May 5 to May 9 [12][13] - The report indicates a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, with a significant increase in contract liabilities and cash flow from operating activities in Q1 2025 [14] - The easing of US-China tariff risks is expected to benefit export-oriented companies, improving export data and capacity utilization [13][14]

行 行业业绩综述 贵金属表现亮眼，中重稀土价格上涨 ——金属行业 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报综述 分析师： 张珂 SAC NO： S1150523120001 2025 年 05 月 13 日 钢铁 有色金属 投资要点： 证券分析师 张珂 zhangke@bhzq.com 整体看：2024 年钢铁行业盈利压力较大，行业归母净利同比下跌 131.74%， 行业整体处于亏损状态；2025 年 Q1 行业归母净利同比增长 549.88%，行业 业绩大幅好转。 分子板块：（1）冶钢原料：板块 24 年归母净利同比下降 38.56%，25 年 Q1 同比下降 29.03%，板块业绩未见明显好转；价格方面，24 年矿价整体震荡 下行，25 年 Q1 受缩减粗钢产量预期等因素影响价格依旧走弱。（2）普钢： 板块 24 年整体业绩亏损，而在 25 年 Q1 实现盈利，业绩好转；价格方面， 24 年钢价整体波动下行，25 年 Q1 受需求和美国关税问题影响依旧偏弱。 （3）特钢：24 年业绩在子板块中表现最好，25 年 Q1 归母净利同比增长 10.44%；价格方面，24 年不锈钢价格宽幅震荡，25 年 Q1 价格 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that trade talks have provided positive sentiment, leading to a gradual easing of macroeconomic concerns [1]. - In the steel sector, demand may face short-term pressure due to increased rainfall in southern China, but potential economic stimulus policies could stabilize steel prices [3][4]. - For copper, supply tightness is expected due to the shutdown of the Antamina copper mine in Peru, while trade negotiations are improving market sentiment [3][4]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure from weakened downstream demand and adjusted tariffs, leading to expected price fluctuations [3][4]. - Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset is diminishing due to optimistic trade talks and easing geopolitical tensions, which may put downward pressure on gold prices [3][4]. - The lithium sector is facing oversupply issues, with prices expected to continue declining in the short term [3][4]. Industry Summary Steel - Steel inventory has shifted from decline to increase due to seasonal demand weakness during the May Day holiday, with total steel inventory at 14.73 million tons, a 1.36% increase from the previous week [17][27]. - The production of five major steel products was 8.74 million tons, a 0.22% decrease from the previous week [21]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 92.09% as of May 9 [25]. Copper - The LME copper spot price was $9,500 per ton, a 3.06% increase from April 30, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 31.96% [48]. - The report notes that the copper market is supported by supply constraints and positive macroeconomic sentiment [41][48]. Aluminum - The LME aluminum spot price was $2,400 per ton, a 0.17% decrease from April 30, with SHFE aluminum inventory down by 5.18% [51]. - The report indicates that aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to mixed market signals [50][51]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are under pressure, with COMEX gold closing at $3,329.10 per ounce, a 0.91% increase from April 30 [53]. - The report suggests that geopolitical developments are reducing gold's safe-haven appeal [53]. Lithium and New Energy Metals - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 67,500 yuan per ton, a 2.46% decrease from April 30 [57]. - The report anticipates continued price declines in the lithium market due to oversupply [56][57]. Rare Earths and Minor Metals - The price of light rare earth oxide praseodymium-neodymium was 423,000 yuan per ton, a 2.92% increase from April 30 [64].

编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.13） 宏观及策略研究 输入性因素拖累明显——2025 年 4 月物价数据点评 进出口增速均超预期——2025 年 4 月进出口数据点评 基金研究 国防军工领涨行业 ，公募高质量发展行动方案落地——公募基金周报 晨会纪要（2025/05/13） 输入性因素拖累明显——2025 年 4 月物价数据点评 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 1、CPI：食品和出行价格上行 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/05/13） 宏观及策略研究 2025 年 4 月 CPI 同比降幅持平，环比由降转涨。CPI 环比走高主要受食品价格和出行服务价格支撑，其中， 食品价格上行主要与牛肉进口量减少、部分地区 ...

晨会纪要（2025/05/12） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.12） 宏观及策略研究 情绪波动后的基本面博弈——2025 年 5 月宏观经济月报 固定收益研究 双降落地后，债市或回归基本面交易――利率债 5 月投资策略展望 行业研究 秘鲁安塔米拉铜矿停工，欧盟拟改变电车关税政策 ——金属行业 5 月投资策 略展望 轻工纺服一季度业绩均有承压，后续关注内需政策发力——轻工制造&纺织 服饰行业 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报业绩综述 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 7 要 晨会纪要（2025/05/12） 宏观及策略研究 情绪波动后的基本面博弈——2025 年 5 月宏观经济月报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，S ...

Macro and Strategy Research - The GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 5.4% year-on-year, indicating a strong start, particularly in the "two new and two heavy" sectors [2] - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts in May, with expectations for the next cut potentially in July, while domestic liquidity is expected to become more abundant following the implementation of monetary policy adjustments [3] - A-share market liquidity has shown resilience due to structural support from central government funds and a potential end to the outflow of financing, creating new opportunities for inflows as new market themes emerge [3][4] - The performance of A-share companies in Q1 2025 showed a recovery in net profit growth, particularly among small and mid-cap stocks, indicating improved profitability [4] Industry Research - The engineering machinery sector has seen a significant increase in operating rates, with Q1 2025 excavator sales reaching 61,400 units, a 22.8% year-on-year increase, and domestic sales growing by 38.3% [6] - The average operating rate for engineering machinery in Q1 2025 was 44.67%, with 12 provinces exceeding 50%, indicating a positive trend in demand as the traditional peak season approaches [6] - Tesla's humanoid robot production is expected to ramp up significantly, with thousands of units planned for 2025 and a projected annual output of one million by 2029 or 2030, suggesting potential growth in the robotics sector [7] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the engineering machinery industry, recommending increased holdings in companies such as Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, and others [7]

Fixed Income Research - In April, the issuance guidance rates for all maturities declined, with an overall change of -14 BP to -4 BP. The issuance scale of credit bonds increased month-on-month, while the issuance amount of targeted tools decreased. The net financing amount of credit bonds increased, with corporate bonds, targeted tools showing negative net financing, while company bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds showed positive net financing [3] - The secondary market saw a decrease in the transaction scale of credit bonds in April, with short-term financing bonds seeing an increase in transaction amounts. The overall yield of credit bonds declined, with a more significant decrease in the short end. Credit spreads for most medium-term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds narrowed, but the credit spread for 7-year bonds widened [3] - The report suggests that the overall conditions for a bear market in credit bonds are not sufficient, and long-term yields are expected to enter a downward channel. The strategy of increasing allocation during adjustments remains feasible, while the short-end credit spread has limited compression space, suggesting waiting for better allocation opportunities [3] Company Research - The company reported a revenue of 65.556 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.386 billion yuan, up 13.71% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 14.859 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.88%, and a net profit of 1.038 billion yuan, up 32.65% year-on-year [14][15] - The increase in metal prices supported the company's performance in 2024, with the average closing price of COMEX gold increasing by 38.30% and copper by 14.42%. The company produced 18.35 tons of gold and 8.20 million tons of copper in 2024, with a slight increase in gold and copper production in Q1 2025 [15][16] - The company is progressing well with key projects, including the deep resource mining project in Inner Mongolia and the construction of the Laizhou Huijin Saling Gold Mine. The company plans to produce 18.17 tons of gold and 7.94 million tons of copper in 2025, with significant resource additions expected [16][17]

Macro and Strategy Research - In Q1 2025, the overall A-share market showed a significant improvement in net profit margin, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7% in net profit, reversing from negative growth in the previous quarter [2] - The revenue growth rate for the overall A-share market declined by 0.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2024 [2] - The performance across different sectors varied, with only the main board experiencing a revenue decline, while net profit growth improved across all sectors [2][3] Industry Research - In Q1 2025, upstream resource sectors saw a decline in net profit growth, while midstream materials showed marginal improvement [3] - The prices of non-ferrous metals like copper and tin increased significantly, supporting the net profit growth in the non-ferrous metal industry [3] - The coal and petrochemical sectors experienced a decline in net profit growth due to price pressures, while the steel and construction materials sectors benefited from lower raw material and energy costs [3] - The consumer sector showed notable improvement, particularly in the social services industry, which saw a significant recovery in net profit growth due to enhanced consumption policies [3] Company Research - China Aluminum (601600) reported a revenue of 55.784 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.95%, and a net profit of 3.538 billion yuan, up 58.78% [14] - The increase in production and prices of aluminum and alumina products contributed to the company's strong performance [14][17] - The controlling shareholder, China Aluminum Group, announced a plan to increase its stake in the company, reflecting confidence in its future development [17]