[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 美国"吃亏论"或是伪命题 兼论美国制造业回流及关税叙事 [Table_Summary] 摘要： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 深度报告 2025 年 04 月 03 日 宏观专题 核心观点:特朗普所提出的制造业回流与关税保护政策，即所谓"让美国再次伟大" （MAGA）的经济叙事，或是一个伪命题。美国是全球贸易受益者而并非输家，通 过产业结构升级，淘汰低端制造业，成功实现了服务业的高度繁荣和贸易顺差增 长。服务贸易的强劲顺差，尤其是美国在金融、技术、文化娱乐、旅游教育等服务 领域的绝对优势，使美国实际上成为全球贸易的最大受益者之一。特朗普的关税和 制造业回流政策，不仅未必能够带动经济增长和就业增加，还面临盟友反制、衰退 冲击、执政基础不稳等多重内外掣肘因素，从根本上难以实现。 MAGA 有关制造业回流及关税的叙事：特朗普发起的 MAGA 运动主张"让美国再 次伟大"，将提高关税、推动制造业回流作为其核心政策，强调这些政策 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its financial performance, with a 25% year-on-year increase in total revenue for 2024, reaching 9.026 billion yuan, and a remarkable 119.46% increase in net profit, amounting to 1.764 billion yuan [10] - The production of gold has increased by 5.6% year-on-year, with domestic mines contributing 3.91 tons (up 14.6%) and overseas mines contributing 11.25 tons [10] - The company has successfully reduced production costs, with the cost of gold sales approximately 278 yuan per gram in 2024, down from 280 yuan per gram in 2023 [10] - The company is expected to continue its upward trend in gold production, projecting a total of 16.70 tons for 2025 [10] - The rising gold prices, which have increased by approximately 17.5% since the beginning of 2025, are anticipated to further enhance the company's profitability [10] Financial Data Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 11.425 billion yuan in 2025, with net profits expected to be 2.623 billion yuan [11] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to improve from 43.8% in 2024 to 51.7% by 2027 [11] - The company's net asset return is expected to rise from 13.1% in 2024 to 22.8% in 2027 [11] - The company has shown a strong cash flow position, with free cash flow increasing by 279.22% year-on-year to 1.749 billion yuan in 2024 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in production and cost reduction, leading to increased profits. In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 9.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.764 billion yuan, up 119.46% year-on-year [10] - The company's gold production has consistently increased, with a projected output of 16.70 tons in 2025, supported by internal exploration and external resource integration [10] - The rising gold prices are expected to continue benefiting the company's performance, with domestic gold prices rising approximately 17.5% since the beginning of 2025 [10] Financial Data Summary - Total shares outstanding: 1,869.56 million [9] - Total market capitalization: 42.813 billion yuan [9] - Revenue forecast for 2025-2027: 11.4 billion, 12.6 billion, and 13.8 billion yuan respectively [10] - Net profit forecast for 2025-2027: 2.623 billion, 3.121 billion, and 3.523 billion yuan respectively [10] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 43.8% in 2024 to 51.7% in 2027 [11] - The company’s cash flow from operations reached 3.268 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected increase in subsequent years [11]

证券研究报告 | 行业深度 计算机 行业投资评级 | 优于大市（维持） 2025年3月31日 IDC：供需格局改善，AIDC开启行业新周期 证券分析师 姓名：陈涵泊 资格编号：S0120524040004 邮箱：chenhb3＠tebon.com.cn 证券分析师 姓名：李佩京 资格编号：S0120524090004 邮箱：lipj＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 姓名：王思 邮箱：wangsi＠tebon.com.cn 0 核心逻辑 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露及法律声明。 1 IDC向AIDC演进，智算需求或推动行业景气度回暖。数据中心作为人工智能、云计算等新一代信息通信技术的重要载体，已经成为新型数字基础设施的算力底座，具有空前重要的战略 地位，堪称"数字经济发动机"。我国数据中心市场规模稳定攀升，2023年全国在用算力中心机架总规模超810万标准机架，同比增长25%，算力总规模达230EFLOPS，位居全球第二。 近些年，我国数据中心的快速供给也致使行业经历了短期的供给过剩。当前，在生成式AI浪潮下，智算需求的爆发或推动我国IDC行业景气度再次回升。 20-23年：新基建强供给&互联网监管弱需求， ...

Macroeconomic Insights - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of recovery, with strong industrial production growth and continued high manufacturing investment, offsetting the negative impact of declining real estate investment[2] - The economy is entering a "dragon in the field" phase, indicating a systemic change in mid-term macro logic, suggesting it is time to adjust expectations[11] - Key factors influencing asset allocation include the emergence of AI applications, the unsustainability of high interest rates and a strong dollar, and the gradual reduction of negative impacts from real estate[11] Sector-Specific Recommendations - **Zhuoyue New Energy (688196.SH)**: The company is a pioneer in biodiesel production, with a production capacity of approximately 500,000 tons by June 2024, and is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in the biodiesel market[14] - **Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233.SH)**: The company is experiencing a supply-demand turning point with inventory at a low level, and is expected to benefit from a favorable long-term supply-demand structure[18] - **New Fengming (603225.SH)**: The company is positioned to benefit from a supply-demand turning point in polyester filament, with inventory levels remaining low and expected demand growth[21] Financial Performance Highlights - **China Mobile (600941.SH)**: The company reported a revenue of RMB 4,837 billion in the personal market, with a mobile ARPU of RMB 48.5, reflecting a slight decline of 1.62% year-on-year[24] - **Shandong Gold (600547.SH)**: The company's gold production increased by 10.51% to 46.17 tons in 2024, driven by improved mining capabilities and higher gold prices, with an average price of RMB 557.19 per gram, up 23.8% year-on-year[30] - **China Coal Energy (601898.SH)**: The company reported a coal production of 137.57 million tons in 2024, with a gross profit margin of 49.9%[32] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include policy support falling short of expectations, economic recovery not progressing as anticipated, and fluctuations in raw material prices impacting profitability[8] - The company’s performance may be affected by uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies and domestic price pressures, particularly in sectors closely tied to domestic demand[12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for 2024, with operating income of 3.251 billion yuan, down 37.79% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.580 billion yuan, down 24.56% year-on-year [5][6] - The investment income from the company's subsidiary, Giant Dragon Copper Industry, accounted for 74.72% of the net profit, with a total investment income of 1.928 billion yuan, an increase of 48.72% year-on-year [5] - The company is actively expanding its potassium salt production and has achieved a production target of 1.073 million tons, exceeding its goal [5] - The lithium segment is progressing with projects in Tibet, with significant lithium reserves and production plans in place [5] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.251 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 37.79% [6] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 2.580 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 24.56% [6] - Forecasted revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 3.036 billion yuan and 4.248 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 3.052 billion yuan and 5.415 billion yuan [7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 44.9% in 2024 to 49.6% in 2025 [7] Market Performance - The company’s stock has shown a relative performance against the CSI 300 index, with absolute gains of 9.78%, 16.42%, and 28.35% over 1, 2, and 3 months, respectively [4]

5[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 藏格矿业(000408.SZ) 2025 年 03 月 31 日 所属行业：有色金属/能源金属 当前价格(元)：35.81 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 康宇豪 资格编号：S0120524050001 邮箱：kangyh＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 藏格矿业 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 9.78 | 16.42 | 28.35 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 11.11 | 13.85 | 30.45 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 买入（维持） 1.《藏格矿业（000408.SZ）：巨龙铜 业投资收益大幅增长；结则茶卡与龙 木错盐湖项目进展顺利》，2024.10.25 2.《铜行业跟踪：24Q3 降息影响定价， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 54.45 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.61%. The total profit reached 5.972 billion yuan, an increase of 7.74% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.412 billion yuan, up 11.52% year-on-year [7] - The production of electrolytic aluminum saw a significant increase, with a total output of 2.9383 million tons in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 22.45%, setting a historical high for the company [7] - The average price of electrolytic aluminum in 2024 was approximately 19,921.61 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 6.5%, contributing to the company's performance improvement [7] - The company anticipates continued growth in electrolytic aluminum production in 2025, with production targets set at approximately 3.01 million tons for electrolytic aluminum and 1.41 million tons for alumina [7] - The report forecasts total operating revenues of 57.4 billion yuan, 58.78 billion yuan, and 60.38 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 6.8 billion yuan, 7.3 billion yuan, and 8.07 billion yuan for the same years [7] Financial Data Summary - The company reported a total market capitalization of 60.24 billion yuan and a total asset value of 41.90 billion yuan [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 1.27 yuan, with expectations to rise to 1.96 yuan in 2025 and 2.11 yuan in 2026 [8] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 13.2% in 2024 to 19.8% by 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 54.45 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.61%. The total profit reached 5.972 billion yuan, up 7.74% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.412 billion yuan, an increase of 11.52% year-on-year [7] - The production of electrolytic aluminum increased significantly, with a historical high of 2.9383 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 22.45%. The average price of electrolytic aluminum in 2024 was approximately 19,921.61 yuan per ton, up about 6.5% from 2023 [7] - The company is expected to continue its upward production trend in 2025, with production targets set at approximately 3.01 million tons of electrolytic aluminum and 141,000 tons of alumina [7] - The decline in alumina costs is anticipated to enhance electrolytic aluminum profits, with the average price of alumina as of March 25, 2025, being 3,160.00 yuan per ton, down about 43.6% from the beginning of the year [7] - The company forecasts total operating revenues of 57.4 billion yuan, 58.8 billion yuan, and 60.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 6.8 billion yuan, 7.3 billion yuan, and 8.0 billion yuan for the same years [7] Financial Data Summary - Total shares outstanding: 3,467.96 million shares [6] - Market capitalization: 60,238.42 million yuan [6] - Revenue forecast for 2024: 54,450 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 27.6% [8] - Net profit forecast for 2024: 4,412 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [8] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024: 1.27 yuan [8] - Gross margin for 2024: 13.2% [8] - Return on equity (ROE) for 2024: 15.6% [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing growth in the weight loss sector, emphasizing companies such as Innovent Biologics, Boryung Pharmaceutical, and Ascletis Pharma [5][10] - A new guideline for obesity treatment was released by the National Health Commission, which includes various treatment methods and lists five approved weight loss drugs [7][10] - The report notes that the pharmaceutical sector has shown resilience, with the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index outperforming the CSI 300 Index in recent weeks [16][34] Summary by Sections 1. Weight Loss Sector - The weight loss market remains robust, with a focus on companies like Innovent Biologics, Boryung Pharmaceutical, and Ascletis Pharma [5][10] - The National Health Commission's 2024 Obesity Diagnosis and Treatment Guidelines detail various treatment methods and list five approved weight loss medications [7][10] 2. Market Performance Review - For the week of March 24-28, 2025, the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index increased by 0.98%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.97% [16] - Year-to-date, the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index has risen by 3.53%, also outperforming the CSI 300 Index [16] 3. Key Company Updates - Innovent Biologics has submitted an NDA for its drug, with expected approvals for weight loss and type 2 diabetes indications in 2025 [11] - Boryung Pharmaceutical's BGM0504 has shown promising results in clinical trials, with significant weight loss percentages reported [12] - Ascletis Pharma's ASC47 has demonstrated unique properties in targeting fat tissue, with favorable clinical trial results [14] - Federated Pharmaceuticals has entered a licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk for its drug UBT251, which includes substantial potential milestone payments [15]