Inflation Data - The US July CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, and the core CPI rose by 0.32%, both meeting expectations[6] - Year-on-year, the CPI was expected at 2.8% but came in at 2.7%, while the core CPI was expected at 3.0% and recorded at 3.06%[6] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the 2-year US Treasury yield fell to 3.72%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.31%[4] - The market narrative shifted to "moderate inflation → increased rate cut expectations → improved growth outlook," leading to a decline in the dollar index below 98 and a rise in US stocks[4] Rate Cut Expectations - Current market expectations suggest 2.4 rate cuts (61 basis points) for the year, but the analysis indicates a potential adjustment down to 2 cuts (in September and December) or even 1 cut (in October)[5] - There is an identified risk of at least an 11 basis point correction in the current rate cut expectations, indicating potential upward pressure on the dollar index and short-term interest rates[5] Economic Outlook - The rebound in used car prices and ongoing tariff impacts on furniture and auto parts prices contribute to inflation dynamics, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures in the service sector[6] - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term trends over short-term data fluctuations, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's eventual rate cuts and ongoing central bank gold purchases[5]

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. July CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, and the core CPI rose by 0.32%, both meeting expectations[1] - Year-on-year, the CPI was expected to be 2.8% but came in at 2.7%, while the core CPI was expected at 3.0% and actual was 3.06%, with discrepancies attributed to seasonal adjustments and rounding issues[1] Inflation Structure - The rebound in used car prices, tariff impacts on furniture and auto parts, and fluctuations in airfare and hotel prices contributed to the inflation increase[1] - Core goods CPI month-on-month slightly increased from 0.20% to 0.21%, while transportation goods improved from -0.38% to 0.22%[1] - Housing services rose from 0.18% to 0.23%, with owner’s equivalent rent (OER) and rent price rent (RPR) at 0.28% and 0.26% respectively, returning to pre-pandemic levels[1] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the market narrative shifted to "moderate inflation → increased rate cut expectations → improved growth outlook," leading to a drop in 2-year Treasury yields to 3.72% and a rise in 10-year yields to 4.31%[1] - The dollar index fell below 98, while gold prices decreased, and U.S. stocks and silver prices increased[1] Rate Cut Expectations - Current market pricing suggests 2.4 rate cuts (61 basis points) for the year, but there is an anticipated adjustment of at least 11 basis points downward[1] - The optimistic scenario for rate cuts is two times (September and December), while the pessimistic scenario is one time (October)[1] Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential overreach in Trump’s policies, excessive rate cuts leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a steady growth in H1 2025, with revenue reaching 5.705 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 858 million yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year. The lower profit growth compared to revenue is attributed to a decrease in interest income and other earnings [7] - The company maintains a strong market position with a focus on product upgrades and channel innovation, particularly through the expansion of "super stores" [7] - The financial outlook remains positive, with projected net profits of 1.3 billion, 1.46 billion, and 1.62 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to a low valuation with P/E ratios of 9, 8, and 7 [7] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 8.518 billion yuan in 2023 to 13.990 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.57% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 961.43 million yuan in 2023 to 1.616 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 10.89% [1] Segment Performance - In terms of product categories, footwear outperformed apparel, with adult and children's footwear showing strong growth. Adult apparel revenue grew by 10.9%, while children's apparel saw a 11.4% increase [7] - Online sales experienced significant growth, increasing by 45.0% year-on-year, while offline sales saw a slight decline of 1.2% [7] Financial Metrics - The gross profit margin slightly increased to 41.5% in H1 2025, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 15.0% [7] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, reaching 524 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 227.2% [7]

Macro Strategy - The report indicates that loan demand is expected to decline in July, while social financing growth is projected to remain stable [1][22] - The ECI supply index is at 50.06%, showing a slight decrease, while the demand index is at 49.90%, indicating a contraction in both supply and demand [22] - The report highlights a potential rebound in CPI due to rising commodity prices, which may affect market expectations for interest rate cuts in September [1][23] Industry Analysis - The report discusses historical capacity adjustment cases, emphasizing that government intervention is more effective than non-intervention in addressing capacity imbalances [2][4] - It notes that supply-demand rebalancing requires simultaneous efforts in controlling capacity, restoring credit, and stabilizing employment [2] - The "反内卷" policy is expected to differ from previous supply-side reforms, focusing on market-driven measures rather than administrative interventions [6][7] Company Insights - For Hehuang Pharmaceutical, the net profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to $41.4 million due to asset sales, while future projections have been revised downwards due to delays in product launches [11] - For Dazhong Media, the profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, reflecting the impact of the "碰一碰" business model on profit elasticity and cost optimization [12] - For Di'er Laser, the company reported a 29.2% year-on-year revenue growth in H1 2025, driven by strong performance in the photovoltaic equipment sector [13][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 3.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.42%, with a gross margin of 36.8%, up 1.43 percentage points [7] - The company's product mix optimization has driven gross margin growth, while scale effects have improved net profit margin [7] - The company has received domestic and international orders for its 8K chips, indicating strong market recognition and technical capabilities [7] - AIoT products are rapidly expanding, with Wi-Fi chip sales significantly increasing, reflecting enhanced market penetration and product competitiveness [7] - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 73.1 billion yuan, 88.32 billion yuan, and 103.91 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit expectations slightly raised [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 5.371 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.14%, while net profit is expected to be 498.04 million yuan, down 31.46% [1] - For 2024, total revenue is expected to rise to 5.926 billion yuan, a 10.34% increase, with net profit forecasted at 821.92 million yuan, a 65.03% increase [1] - By 2025, total revenue is projected to reach 7.310 billion yuan, a 23.34% increase, with net profit expected at 1.06093 billion yuan, a 29.08% increase [1] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.95 yuan in 2024, 2.52 yuan in 2025, and 3.35 yuan in 2026 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Moutai's sales rhythm remains stable, while the series liquor faces marginal pressure [7] - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 91.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 45.4 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year [7] - The report highlights that Moutai liquor's revenue grew by 10.2% in H1 and 11.0% in Q2, while series liquor saw a decline of 6.5% in Q2 due to high base effects and external demand pressures [7] - The company aims for a revenue growth of 9% in 2025, focusing on optimizing product and channel strategies to explore revenue increments [7] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue forecast (in million yuan): 150,560 in 2023, 174,144 in 2024, 190,161 in 2025, 198,851 in 2026, and 213,603 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.04%, 15.66%, 9.20%, 4.57%, and 7.42% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders forecast (in million yuan): 74,734 in 2023, 86,228 in 2024, 93,233 in 2025, 96,541 in 2026, and 103,001 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.16%, 15.38%, 8.12%, 3.55%, and 6.69% respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS forecast: 59.49 in 2023, 68.64 in 2024, 74.22 in 2025, 76.85 in 2026, and 81.99 in 2027 [1] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a P/E ratio of 24.16 for 2023, decreasing to 17.53 by 2027 [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 1,437.04 yuan, with a one-year low of 1,245.83 yuan and a high of 1,910.00 yuan [5] - The market value of circulating A shares is approximately 1,805,206.49 million yuan [5] Basic Data - The book value per share is 205.67 yuan, and the debt-to-asset ratio is 14.14% [6] - The total share capital is 1,256.20 million shares [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company, which has been downgraded from a previous rating [1]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 was slightly below expectations, but a turnaround is anticipated in the second half of the year [1]. - The total revenue for H1 2025 was reported at $280 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.2% [7]. - The company has adjusted its revenue guidance for the full year 2025 to between $270 million and $350 million for its oncology/immunology segment [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are $838 million, $630.2 million, $560 million, $635.91 million, and $711.90 million respectively, with year-on-year changes of 96.52%, -24.80%, -11.14%, 13.55%, and 11.95% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be $100.78 million, $37.73 million, $413.55 million, $14.50 million, and $62.82 million for the same years, with year-on-year changes of 127.93%, -62.56%, 996.09%, -96.49%, and 333.23% [1]. - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be $0.12, $0.04, $0.47, $0.02, and $0.07 for the years 2023A to 2027E [1]. - The P/E ratios for the years 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 26.55, 70.92, 6.47, 184.55, and 42.60 respectively [1]. Key Catalysts - The report highlights several important catalysts for the company, including the potential participation of the drug "Sewotini" in the national medical insurance negotiations by the end of this year [7]. - The global Phase III study for "Sewotini" is expected to read out data in the first half of 2026, with plans to submit for FDA approval [7]. - The company is also working on new drug candidates through its innovative antibody-drug conjugate (ATTC) platform, with plans to enter clinical development by the end of 2025 [7].

证券研究报告·北交所公司点评报告·专用设备 卓兆点胶（873726） 2025 年中报点评：智能穿戴业务拐点来临， 携手浦森进军半导体设备行业 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 262.57 | 125.12 | 340.00 | 385.00 | 436.15 | | 同比 | (23.86) | (52.35) | 171.74 | 13.24 | 13.29 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 63.93 | (20.75) | 54.33 | 63.21 | 82.57 | | 同比 | (27.73) | (132.46) | 361.82 | 16.34 | 30.63 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.78 | (0.25) | 0.66 | 0.77 | 1.01 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 41.34 | (127.36) | 48.64 | 41.81 | 32 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The "Tap and Go" business model is expected to drive significant growth for the company by integrating offline traffic with the payment ecosystem, creating a full-loop conversion from advertisement exposure to interaction and conversion [2][15] - The company is positioned to benefit from a recovery in consumer spending, leveraging its high operational leverage and the incremental growth from the "Tap and Go" initiative [2][4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 11,904 million in 2023 to 16,775 million in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 5.95% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4,827 million in 2023 to 7,771 million in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 10.35% [1] - The EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.33 in 2023 to 0.54 in 2027, with a corresponding decrease in P/E ratio from 24.50 to 15.22 [1] Business Model Innovation - The "Tap and Go" model utilizes NFC technology to simplify the interaction process, enhancing user engagement and conversion rates [3][27] - This model addresses traditional pain points in elevator advertising, such as quantifying effectiveness and lengthy conversion paths, by providing a seamless user experience [25][26] - The introduction of a CPS (Cost Per Sale) model allows advertisers to pay based on actual user conversions, thus improving ROI and attracting more advertisers, especially small and medium enterprises [48][49] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has a strong foothold in the elevator media market, with a high penetration rate in key urban areas, which supports the expansion of the "Tap and Go" initiative [17][18] - The increasing share of daily consumer goods clients, which accounted for 61.90% of revenue in 2024, provides a solid customer base for the new advertising model [18][21] - The strategic partnership with Alipay enhances the company's competitive edge by leveraging Alipay's extensive user base and payment ecosystem [15][16] User Engagement and Interaction - The "Tap and Go" initiative features a tiered reward system to enhance user retention and engagement, offering cash rewards for initial interactions and coupons for subsequent ones [4][37] - The system's ability to target specific user demographics and preferences through data analytics improves the efficiency of marketing efforts [38][40] - The initiative aims to transform passive advertising into active user engagement, thereby increasing the effectiveness of advertising campaigns [42][45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.17 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 330 million yuan, up 38.4% year-on-year [2] - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 610 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.5%, with a net profit of 160 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 61.91% [2] - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 47.6%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 1.8 percentage points to 27.9% [3] - As of the end of H1 2025, the company's contract liabilities decreased by 17% year-on-year to 1.58 billion yuan, and inventory decreased by 11% to 1.75 billion yuan [4] - The company is actively advancing its business layout in the semiconductor field, focusing on laser equipment for photovoltaic cells and components, as well as laser devices for consumer electronics and integrated circuits [5] Financial Summary - The company forecasts total revenue of 2.514 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 24.8%, and a net profit of 642.54 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 21.78% [1][11] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 2.35 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 31.93 based on the current price [1][11] - The company's operating cash flow for H1 2025 was -143 million yuan, a decrease of 35% year-on-year, primarily due to increased cash payments for goods and services [4]