Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a decline in thermal coal prices, with significant increases in coal inventory at three major ports [5][30] - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups has decreased month-on-month, while year-on-year growth is observed [39] - Domestic shipping costs have decreased month-on-month, while international shipping costs show mixed trends [49] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal Prices - As of May 9, the price of Shanxi mixed thermal coal at Qinhuangdao is 635 CNY/ton, down 4.80% from the previous month [3][14] - International thermal coal prices have also decreased, with Newcastle coal at 94 USD/ton, down 3.09% month-on-month [17] 2. Production - In March, the monthly coal production from key state-owned mines in Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia increased month-on-month [23] - The total coal production in March was 44,058.20 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.33% [20] 3. Imports - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite in April was 37.83 million tons, a decrease of 2.34% month-on-month [26] - The monthly import of thermal coal in March was 9.18 million tons, an increase of 4.85% month-on-month but a decrease of 30.58% year-on-year [26] 4. Inventory - As of May 9, the total coal inventory at the three major ports reached 15.76 million tons, an increase of 12.73% month-on-month [30] - The average available days of coal inventory for the six major power generation groups increased by 5.11% month-on-month [38] 5. Downstream Demand - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was 759,400 tons, a decrease of 0.26% month-on-month [39] - National electricity generation in March increased by 4.06% year-on-year, while thermal power generation decreased by 1.96% [41][48] 6. Freight Rates - Domestic shipping costs from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai decreased by 13.92% month-on-month [49] - International shipping costs from Newcastle to China decreased by 3.79% month-on-month [49]

元_20250113_173521.xlsx 金属行业 2024 年报综述：行业利润质量 已现质变，板块配置属性显现增强 2025 年 5 月 15 日 看好/维持 有色金属 行业报告 | 分析师 | 张天丰 电话：021-25102914 邮箱：zhang_tf@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480520100001 | | --- | --- | --- | | 研究助理 | 闵泓朴 电话：021-65462553 邮箱：minhp-yjs@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480124060003 | 投资摘要： 从十年维度观察（2015-2024），有色金属行业利润规模已实现质变。2024 年行业实现总营收 34075 亿元，十年间涨幅达 205%；同年行业 实现归母净利润 1384 亿元，十年间涨幅高达 4691%。其中，2020-2022 年间，全球量化宽松周期开启，库存周期切换叠加流动性助推下， 金属行业归母净利润由 19 年的 157 亿元增至 1818 亿元，涨幅达 1062%，行业利润实现从百亿至千亿级的跨越。至 2024 年，随着全球降 息周期的再次开启，有色 ...

集换式卡牌行业：高速发展，卡游再次递 交港交所招股书 2025 年 5 月 15 日 看好/维持 轻工制造 行业报告 | 分析师 | 刘田田 电话：010-66554038 邮箱：liutt@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480521010001 | | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师 | 沈逸伦 电话：010-66554044 邮箱：shenyl@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480523060001 | 投资摘要： 中国集换式卡牌行业近年来发展迅猛，卡游份额 70%。集换式卡牌指具有特定主题的实体卡，可供消费者收藏、交换或对战， 具备社交属性，其产业链涵盖上游 IP 创作与运营、中游产品设计制作及下游产品流通。根据卡游招股说明书的数据，从 2019 年到 2024 年，中国集换式卡牌市场规模从 28 亿元增长至 263 亿元，复合年增长率达到 56.6%，远超泛娱乐玩具整体 15.8% 的增长率。集换式卡牌行业高度集中，卡游作为行业绝对龙头，2022 年及 2024 年市场份额均超过 70%。按商品交易总额计， 2024 年我国集换式卡牌行业市场规模已超过美 ...

（一）4 月社融同比多增源于政府债支撑。4 月社融新增 1.16 万亿，同比+1.2 万亿，主要是政府债券融资同比约+1.1 万亿，体现财政政策更加积极，力度加 大，节奏前置。考虑到近期已启动发行中央金融机构注资特别国债和 1.3 万亿 支持"两重两新"的超长期特别国债，二季度和三季度将是发行高峰，后续社 融增长继续有支撑。当前存量社融同比增速 8.7%，有望维持平稳。此外，4 月企业债券融资 2340 亿。同比+600 多亿，体现 4 月债券利率进一步下行为企 业债券发行带来契机。 （二）考虑隐债置换和 3 月信贷冲量后回落，4 月信贷投放力度较大，结构上 以企业票据贴现为主，一定程度反映实际信贷需求未明显改善。4 月人民币贷 款单月新增 2800 亿，同比-4500 亿；但从前四个月来看，人民币贷款累计新 增 6.14 万亿，同比仅少增 2300 亿。去年四季度以来，地方政府已发行超过 3 万亿特殊再融资债券置换地方隐性债务，对银行表内信贷增长有较大影响。考 虑隐债置换和冲量因素，4 月信贷新增回落，但银行投放力度维持较大。 2025 年 5 月 15 日 看好/维持 银行 行业报告 ——4 月社融金融数 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the basic chemical industry [2][41]. Core Insights - The basic chemical industry is experiencing overall profit pressure, with a divergence in performance across sub-industries. In 2024, the industry is expected to see revenue growth without profit increase, with a slight decline in chemical product price indices and continued low demand globally [4][19]. - In 2024, the overall revenue of the chemical industry is projected to be 28,649.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.96%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1,080.70 billion, a decrease of 7.10% [4][15]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a slight improvement, with revenue reaching 6,769.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.30%, and net profit of 337.50 billion, an increase of 5.58% [4][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The chemical industry is in a low prosperity phase, with a competitive landscape intensifying and continued pressure on product prices and profitability. The overall gross profit margin for the industry is 14.57%, down by 0.65 percentage points year-on-year [4][15]. 2. Sub-Industry Performance - In 2024, the top five sub-industries by revenue growth are rubber products (+23.27%), modified plastics (+16.60%), nylon and polyester (+14.65%), membrane materials (+12.56%), and other plastic products (+9.70%). The top five by net profit growth are nitrogen fertilizers (+145.81%), chlor-alkali (+122.69%), dyeing chemicals (+119.16%), compound fertilizers (+59.81%), and rubber additives (+42.74%) [6][33]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the leading sub-industries by revenue growth are compound fertilizers (+26.73%), modified plastics (+22.35%), civil explosives (+20.07%), potassium fertilizers (+19.93%), and synthetic resins (+18.71%). The top five by net profit growth are fluorochemicals (+99.89%), chlor-alkali (+86.21%), pesticides (+72.93%), membrane materials (+54.54%), and potassium fertilizers (+44.95%) [6][38]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sub-industries with expected improvements in supply-demand dynamics, leading companies driven by capital expenditure expansion and R&D, and high-end chemical new materials benefiting from increased demand or ongoing domestic substitution [7][43]. - Recommended investment targets include Longbai Group, Hualu Hengsheng, Yangnong Chemical, Xinheng, and Guoci Materials [7][44].

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 2025 年 5 月 15 日星期四 分析师推荐 【东兴机械】2024 年报综述-持续关注新质生产力（20250514） 2024 年机械板块涨幅落后，2025 年以来涨幅居前。2024 年全年申万机械设 备指数上涨 5.04%，相较于其他行业涨幅排名靠后，跑输上证指数 7.63 个百 分点，跑输深证成指 4.3 个百分点。2025 年初至今，申万机械设备一级行业 指数涨幅 10.44%，相较于其他行业排名居首，跑赢上证指数 10.43 个百分点， 跑赢深证成指 12.52 个百分点。 2024 年机械板块扣非归母净利润下滑。从收入端来看，2024 年机械行业营业 收入 19995.67 亿元，同比增长 6.55%，同比增速相较于 2023 年有所下滑。 从利润端来看，2024 年机械行业扣非归母净利润 863.64 亿元，同比下滑 3.28%。2025 年一季度机械板块扣非归母净利润增速较高。从收入端来看， 2025 年一季度机械行业营业收入 4540.09 亿元，同比增长 11.23%，增速保持 较高水平。从利润端来看，2025 年一季度机械行业扣非归母净利润 274.96 ...

——美国 4 月 CPI 数据点评 通胀季节性回落，后续关税影响或较为温 和 2025 年 5 月 15 日 宏观经济 事件点评 | | | 事件： 数据方面，住宅环比上涨 0.3%，贡献了 4 月超过一半的通胀。能源价格环比上涨 0.7%，主要来自天然气和电力，覆盖了汽 油价格的下跌。食品价格环比下降 0.1%，主要是居家食品降 0.4%，而外卖食品环比涨 0.4%。核心通胀方面，上涨的有家 具家装（1%），医疗（0.5%），车险（0.6%），教育（0.1%），和个人护理（0.1%）。价格下降的有机票（2.8%）、二手车（0.5%）、 通信以及服装。新车和休闲娱乐价格没有变化。 能源价格的下降主导了通胀和核心通胀的趋势性回落。从长期趋势看，通胀一般落后原油价格一个月，而核心通胀与过去 12 个月通胀的移动平均步调基本一致，可以理解为，在其他因素不变的情况下，由能源成本主导的商品价格的变化慢慢渗透到 服务部门的时间大约为一年。另一个显著影响通胀的为 M2 同比，即长期通胀是货币现象（图 11、12、13）。与去年相比， 通胀环比的波动区间显然又下了一个台阶（约 10bp 图 6）。 我们在年初通胀点评中提到" ...

Group 1: Airline Industry Overview - The airline industry has faced significant operational pressure since the second half of 2024, with major airlines reporting substantial losses, totaling approximately 10.8 billion yuan in Q4 2024, although this was an improvement from the 14.3 billion yuan loss in Q4 2023 [2] - In Q1 2025, the three major airlines reported a combined loss of 4.4 billion yuan, an increase from 2.1 billion yuan in Q1 2024, indicating ongoing challenges despite rising passenger load factors [2][3] - Domestic flight load factors have improved significantly, with Q1 2025 load factors surpassing those of 2019, suggesting a recovery trend in passenger demand [3] Group 2: Domestic Route Outlook - The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) is promoting a rebalancing of supply and demand in the domestic airline market, with measures to control capacity and enhance market regulation [3] - The overall capacity for domestic routes has decreased in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year, which has positively impacted load factors for major airlines [3][7] - If the industry can maintain high load factors while reducing supply, it is expected to significantly benefit the profitability of the airline sector [3] Group 3: International Route Outlook - The recovery of international routes is lagging, with some long-haul routes still not returning to normal demand levels, leading to structural oversupply in the short term [4] - The capacity fluctuations in international routes have become more pronounced, with airlines increasing capacity during peak travel seasons and retracting it quickly afterward [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The current price-to-cash-flow (PCF) valuation of airline stocks is at a relatively low level, suggesting potential for upward price elasticity during the peak travel season [8] - The management of supply and pricing in domestic routes is expected to yield positive results, with higher load factors likely translating into increased ticket prices during peak demand periods [8] - The overall market sentiment is currently low, indicating that airline stocks may be undervalued and could see significant gains as demand increases [8]

机械行业：2024 年报综述——持续关注新 质生产力 2025 年 5 月 14 日 看好/维持 机械 行业报告 | | | 投资摘要： 2024 年机械板块涨幅落后，2025 年以来涨幅居前。2024 年全年申万机械设备指数上涨 5.04%，相较于其他行业涨幅排名 靠后，跑输上证指数 7.63 个百分点，跑输深证成指 4.3 个百分点。2025 年初至今，申万机械设备一级行业指数涨幅 10.44%， 相较于其他行业排名居首，跑赢上证指数 10.43 个百分点，跑赢深证成指 12.52 个百分点。 2024 年机械板块扣非归母净利润下滑。从收入端来看，2024 年机械行业营业收入 19995.67 亿元，同比增长 6.55%，同比 增速相较于 2023 年有所下滑。从利润端来看，2024 年机械行业扣非归母净利润 863.64 亿元，同比下滑 3.28%。2025 年一 季度机械板块扣非归母净利润增速较高。从收入端来看，2025 年一季度机械行业营业收入 4540.09 亿元，同比增长 11.23%， 增速保持较高水平。从利润端来看，2025 年一季度机械行业扣非归母净利润 274.96 亿元，同比下滑 30 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the machinery industry [1] Core Insights - The machinery sector underperformed in 2024 with a 5.04% increase in the Shenwan Machinery Equipment Index, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.63 percentage points and the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.3 percentage points. However, from the beginning of 2025, the index has risen by 10.44%, outperforming both major indices [2][17] - In 2024, the machinery industry's operating revenue reached CNY 19,995.67 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.55%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 3.28% to CNY 863.64 billion. In Q1 2025, operating revenue grew by 11.23% to CNY 4,540.09 billion, but net profit saw a significant decline of 30.03% [2][20][26] Summary by Sections Investment Summary - The machinery sector's performance in 2024 was below expectations, but it has shown strong recovery in 2025, leading the market [2][17] - The report suggests focusing on more proactive fiscal policies and new quality productivity to drive growth [4][41] Sector Performance - The internal segmentation of the machinery industry shows significant disparities, with semiconductor equipment (39.08%), photovoltaic processing equipment (29.60%), and motorcycles (17.85%) leading in revenue growth for 2024. In Q1 2025, semiconductor equipment (33.38%) and motorcycles (30.74%) continued to show strong growth [3][39] - The report highlights that the machinery sector's public fund allocation increased from 2.79% in 2024 to 3.27% in Q1 2025 [30] Policy Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policies to boost engineering machinery sales, with significant government bond issuance planned for infrastructure projects [5][44] - It also suggests continuous attention to new quality productivity sectors, including low-altitude economy, deep-sea technology, humanoid robots, and industrial mother machines [6][49] Emerging Opportunities - The low-altitude economy is expected to benefit from government support, with projections indicating substantial growth in drone deliveries and eVTOL aircraft by 2035 [7][50] - Deep-sea technology is crucial for energy security, with significant potential for domestic equipment replacement in deep-water oil and gas extraction [8][52] - Humanoid robots are positioned to address customization challenges in manufacturing, supported by government initiatives to expand application scenarios [9][53] - Industrial mother machines are identified as essential for reducing costs in mass production, with a growing market for core components [10][54]