Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a deep cooperation between Shengqu Games and Tianqiong Interactive, focusing on the multi-dimensional value of the "Legend" IP [6] - Shengqu Games will continue to develop official products for "Legend" and "Legend World," enhancing user experience [6] - The partnership allows Tianqiong Interactive exclusive rights for derivative games, IP protection, and related products in mainland China, marking a new phase for these classic IPs [6] - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projected between 2.4 billion to 3 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 107.20% to 159.00% [5] Recent Performance - The stock of ST Huatuo has shown impressive performance, with a 12-month increase of 295.4%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index [4] - As of July 15, 2025, the stock price is 13.01 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 96.96 billion yuan [4] Related Reports - A previous report dated August 14, 2023, discusses the establishment of a win-win framework for the "Legend" IP, which is beneficial for the company's long-term development [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry [1][14]. Core Insights - NVIDIA's announcement of resuming H20 chip supply to China is expected to open significant opportunities for its business in the region, potentially alleviating the computational power anxiety faced by Chinese AI companies [5][6]. - The Chinese AI chip market is projected to reach approximately $50 billion in the next two to three years, indicating strong growth potential [6]. - Major cloud service providers are optimistic about capital expenditures, with Microsoft planning to invest $80 billion in AI infrastructure for FY2025, and other companies like Google and Amazon also announcing substantial investments [7][8]. - Prior to the export restrictions, the H20 chip was in high demand in China, contributing significantly to NVIDIA's revenue [8][9]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The computer industry has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a 12-month performance of 60.2% compared to 15.6% for the index [3]. Supply Side - The resumption of H20 chip supply is crucial for NVIDIA, which faced a loss of $4.5 billion due to previous export restrictions [5][6]. - The H20 chip is recognized for its superior specifications, making it a key player in the Chinese AI market [9][10]. Demand Side - Domestic and international cloud providers are increasing their capital expenditures, with significant investments planned for AI and data center capabilities [7][8]. - Chinese tech giants like Tencent and Alibaba are also ramping up their capital expenditures, focusing heavily on AI infrastructure [8]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the resumption of H20 supply will boost confidence in the domestic AI market and expand overall computational capacity, supporting growth in the sector [10]. - Recommended stocks include AI processors, computing rental services, server manufacturers, core components, and IDC providers [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][14]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the release of e-commerce demand in Southeast Asia and effective pricing strategies, leading to accelerated business volume growth [2][5]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a business volume of 1.69 billion parcels, representing a year-on-year increase of 65.9%, up from 50.0% in Q1 2025 [2]. - The company is projected to continue its aggressive pricing strategy to gain market share, despite a significant drop in revenue per parcel in H2 2024 [3]. Business Volume Growth - The company’s business volume in Southeast Asia is expected to increase, with a projected market share rise from 28.6% in 2024 [2]. - In H1 2025, the company completed 3.23 billion parcels in Southeast Asia, 1.06 billion in China, and 17 million in new markets, with year-on-year growth rates of 57.9%, 20.0%, and 21.7% respectively [2]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company is focused on cost reduction and efficiency improvements through increased capital investment in machinery and vehicles, with a total of 5,400 operational trucks in Southeast Asia as of H1 2025, an increase of 1,600 trucks year-on-year [4]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from economies of scale and refined management practices, which will help maintain cost reductions across its three markets [4]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to reach $11.85 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 16% [12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be $368 million in 2025, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 266% [13]. - The report estimates a target price of HKD 15.2 based on a 30x PE for the Southeast Asia market and a 10x PE for the China market [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][8] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 180-210 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 111%-146% compared to 85.5 million yuan for the same period in 2024 [6][8] - The core operating profit for the first half of 2025 is projected to be around 180-210 million yuan, an increase of approximately 44%-68% from 125 million yuan in the previous year [6][8] - The company continues to implement its community central kitchen strategy, expanding its instant retail store network and improving store operational efficiency [6][8] Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue forecast of 7.183 billion yuan for 2025, with expected growth rates of 11%, 12%, and 13% for the following years [7][8] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 340 million yuan, with a growth rate of 48% compared to the previous year [7][8] - The company has registered 41.3 million members by the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 48.2%, with prepaid card deposits amounting to 990 million yuan, up 36.6% [6][8] Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a strong market position as a leader in the "home dining" sector, supported by its product strategy, membership ecosystem, and channel innovation [6][8] - The sales of the 99 yuan beef tripe package exceeded 500 million yuan in 2024, with a total exposure of 6.21 billion times on Douyin [6][8] - The company is optimistic about the potential for expansion in rural areas, which is expected to drive same-store sales and operational efficiency [6][8]

Group 1: Tencent Holdings - The core business continues to show growth resilience, with a focus on the release of AI ecosystem value. The expected revenue for Q2 2025 is 179.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 11% [3] - The gaming segment is projected to grow by 16% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with domestic and overseas growth rates of 16% and 17% respectively [4] - The online advertising business is expected to grow by 20% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in various sectors including video accounts and mini-programs [4] - The financial technology and enterprise services segment is anticipated to grow by 6% year-on-year, with cloud business growth expected to exceed 20% [4] - The adjusted profit forecast for Tencent Holdings for 2025-2027 is 252.3 billion, 282.6 billion, and 314.4 billion yuan respectively, with a target price of 610 HKD [5] Group 2: Aerospace and Energy Industry - The demand for gas turbines and aircraft engines is surging due to increased orders driven by AI data centers, energy transition needs, and military demand [6] - Major players in the gas turbine market, such as Siemens Energy and GE Vernova, report record order backlogs and are expanding production capacity to meet demand [8][9] - The Chinese supply chain is expected to benefit from the demand surge in high-temperature alloys and components, with companies like Zhenhua Co., Longda Co., and others positioned to capitalize on this trend [7][15] - The aerospace engine market is experiencing significant order backlogs, with companies like Rolls-Royce and GE Aerospace reporting substantial increases in their order books [11][12] - The high-temperature alloy industry is rated positively, with expectations of increased demand for key metals like nickel and chromium due to the ongoing aerospace and gas turbine demand [16] Group 3: Alibaba Group - Alibaba is expected to achieve total revenue of 249 billion yuan for FY2026Q1, with a year-on-year increase of 2% [18] - The Taotian Group is projected to see a GMV growth of 5.6% year-on-year, benefiting from national policies aimed at boosting consumption [19] - The international digital commerce segment is expected to grow by 19% year-on-year, driven by strong performance across various platforms [20] - The cloud intelligence group is anticipated to grow by 22% year-on-year, with a focus on public cloud services and improving profitability [21] - The adjusted profit forecast for Alibaba for FY2026-2028 is 1,425 billion, 1,678 billion, and 1,940 billion yuan respectively, with a target price of 119 RMB [22] Group 4: Agricultural Chemicals Industry - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 260-280 million yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 719%-782% [24] - The significant improvement in performance is attributed to rising product prices and strong demand for key agricultural chemicals [25] - The company is actively investing in synthetic biology and AI-driven pesticide development, enhancing innovation and product efficiency [26] - The revenue forecast for the company for 2025-2027 is 4.875 billion, 5.250 billion, and 5.607 billion yuan respectively, with a "buy" rating maintained [26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the high-temperature alloy industry [1][19]. Core Insights - The demand for gas turbines and aircraft engines is surging, driven by increased orders from major manufacturers, which is expected to boost the demand for chromium salts, high-temperature alloys, and components [7][18]. - The domestic supply chain for high-temperature alloys is anticipated to benefit significantly from the ongoing demand surge, with Chinese companies positioned to capture opportunities in the international market [17][19]. Recent Trends - The high-temperature alloy industry has seen a robust performance, with a notable increase in orders for gas turbines and aircraft engines, reflecting a strong market outlook [7][18]. - The report highlights that the global gas turbine market is experiencing a significant expansion, with major players like Siemens Energy and GE Vernova reporting record-high order volumes [9][10][11]. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report identifies several key companies to watch, including Zhenhua Co., Longda Co., Hangya Technology, Yingliu Co., Wanze Co., Hangyu Technology, Parker New Materials, and Sry New Materials, all of which are expected to benefit from the rising demand in the high-temperature alloy sector [7][17][21]. - Profit forecasts for these companies indicate a positive growth trajectory, with expected increases in earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios over the next few years [21].

Group 1 - The report highlights the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, indicating that historically, stock and bond markets tend to move in opposite directions, although this negative correlation has weakened during periods of significant liquidity changes [3][4] - Current disturbances in the bond market are attributed to economic data fluctuations, accelerated special bond issuance, and evolving real estate policy expectations, suggesting that bond market rates may face certain pressures [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic data and policy developments to identify further opportunities for bond market investments [4] Group 2 - The overseas pension asset allocation strategies are categorized into asset management and asset-liability management types, with the latter focusing on ensuring long-term fund stability by considering payment pressures [5][7] - Notable pension funds such as GPIF, GPFG, and CPP utilize different strategies for asset allocation, with GPIF adopting a passive investment approach based on indices, while GPFG adjusts standard indices for active investment [5][6] - The report discusses the dynamic liability-driven investment (LDI) approach recommended by PGIM, which emphasizes flexibility in responding to market changes and aligning with retirees' spending preferences [7][8] Group 3 - The company Feirongda is projected to achieve a revenue of 2.886 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 33.06%, with net profit expected to increase by 103.95% to 123.69% [9][10] - The growth is driven by strong performance in the consumer electronics, communication, and new energy vehicle sectors, with significant contributions from key clients and market recovery [10][11] - The company has established a strong position in the liquid cooling solutions market for AI servers, with its 3D VC liquid cooling module recognized by leading AI server manufacturers [12][13] Group 4 - The report notes rising prices for potassium fertilizer, glyphosate, and organic silicon, indicating potential investment opportunities due to expected mid-year performance increases [15][23] - The chemical industry is experiencing a tightening supply of phosphorus ore, with demand expected to grow due to the increasing need for phosphate fertilizers and lithium iron phosphate batteries [17][19] - The report identifies key opportunities in the chemical sector, including low-cost expansion and improving market conditions for chromium salts and phosphorus ore [19][20]

Group 1 - The report identifies a significant increase in the number of new convertible bonds listed recently, leading to heightened market attention towards new issuances [7][8] - Convertible bonds are categorized into four main types: white horse, value, small market cap, and balanced, each exhibiting distinct pricing characteristics and investment opportunities, necessitating differentiated strategies for new issuances [7][26] Group 2 - White horse convertible bonds are characterized by high initial valuations and a generally high conversion premium, indicating a low investment cost-effectiveness. The report advises against participating in new issuances or buying on the first day due to systemic valuation risks [7][12][26] - Value convertible bonds typically show low initial valuations, with some even trading below par. The report highlights that institutional demand can drive prices upward post-initial trading, suggesting active participation in new issuances and buying during sell-offs for optimal risk-reward ratios [13][17][26] Group 3 - Small market cap convertible bonds exhibit significant price volatility due to limited liquidity, often leading to extreme pricing deviations from fundamentals. The report recommends avoiding high-price chasing and waiting for a price correction after 4-6 months for potential value recovery opportunities [21][27] - Balanced convertible bonds present relatively rational pricing and moderate volatility, with the report suggesting participation in new issuances and buying during initial sell-offs to achieve stable returns within 1-2 months [25][27]

Group 1 - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2 - The core view of the report is that the suppression of the stock market's strength on the bond market is not severe, and the bond market's reaction to the stock market will gradually become dull. However, the bond market currently faces certain disturbances, and further opportunities to go long may require weaker economic high - frequency data, policy implementation, and the start of a new interest - rate cut cycle [4][26][27]. Group 3 1. How does the stock - bond seesaw play out? - The report calculated the dynamic correlation coefficient between the daily changes of the Shanghai Composite Index and the daily changes of the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate since 2015. It found that the stock - bond seesaw effect holds in most periods, with stock and bond markets generally moving in opposite directions. The weakening of the negative correlation mainly occurs during periods of obvious liquidity tightening or loosening, such as from 2016.07 - 2017.05 (liquidity tightening) and 2020.02 - 2022.10 (liquidity loosening). In the current bond market adjustment, the correlation between stocks and bonds has not significantly increased, and the stock market's impact on the bond market will decrease [4][11][13]. 2. How to view the subsequent bond market? - **Fundamental data disturbances**: In June, high - frequency port data showed that export performance remained resilient, and the spread between the six - month national and joint - stock bank bill rediscount rate and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate indicated possible improvement in credit conditions, which may affect bond market interest rates [15][18]. - **Accelerated issuance of special bonds**: The issuance of local special bonds may accelerate significantly in July, increasing the supply pressure on the bond market. It may also disrupt the capital market and restrict the decline of bond market interest rates as it can boost local investment [20]. - **Rising policy expectations**: Policy expectations related to the real estate industry are fermenting. Although the real estate market has been weak, new policies are expected to boost its performance, which may disrupt bond market sentiment [24]. 3. Summary - The stock market's strength has a limited impact on the bond market, and the bond market's reaction to the stock market will gradually become dull. However, the bond market currently faces disturbances from fundamental data, special bond issuance, and policy expectations. Further opportunities to go long may require weaker economic high - frequency data, policy implementation, and the start of a new interest - rate cut cycle [26][27][29].

2025 年 07 月 14 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 117 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 2025H1 业绩预期高增，充足在手订单叠加下游石化项目进展保障业绩弹性--博隆技术/专用设备 (603325/216402) 中小市值点评报告 工业富联(601138.SH)公司报告：乘上 AI 算力东风，服务器与网络双轮驱动--工业富联/消费电子 (601138/212705) 公司 PPT 报告 陶氏计划退出其欧洲有机硅产能，关注有机硅行业修复机会--行业动态研究 硅料报价提至综合成本线上，欧洲分布式储能需求高景气--行业周报 智元入主上纬新材，xAI 发布大模型 Grok4--行业周报 两部门印发《计量支撑产业新质生产力发展行动方案（2025-2030 年）》--行业周报 铝行业周报：海外关税扰动再起，铝需求淡季深入--行业 PPT 报告 极氪发布浩瀚-S 架构，尚界启动预热--行业周报 本周北证 50 小幅上涨，北矿检测上会--北交所行业普通报告 焦煤期货持续上涨的原 ...