1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market for ultra - long credit bonds has slowed down, but the index of ultra - long credit bonds has shown stable performance. The trading volume of ultra - long industrial bonds over 10 years has increased, while the subscription sentiment for new ultra - long industrial bonds has significantly cooled. The spread between active ultra - long credit bonds and Treasury bonds of similar maturities continues to narrow. Accounts with stable liability ends need to reasonably control the position of ultra - long credit bonds [2][4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Market Characteristics - The market for ultra - long credit bonds has slowed down. Factors such as the slight tightening of cross - quarter funds, the tilt of the stock - bond balance, and the net value fluctuations of credit bond ETFs have disturbed the sentiment of going long on ultra - long credit bonds. The yield distribution of existing ultra - long credit bonds this week is generally the same as last week, and the number of existing ultra - long credit bonds with a yield below 2.2% remains at 650 [2][13] 3.2 Primary Issuance Situation - The supply of new ultra - long industrial bonds remains high. The issuance scale of new ultra - long credit bonds this week totals 29.5 billion, basically the same as last week, and ultra - long industrial bonds are still the main new addition. However, the subscription sentiment for new ultra - long industrial bonds has significantly cooled this week, which is related to the average issuance interest rate of new ultra - long industrial bonds dropping to a new low and the increased volatility of the capital market near the end of the quarter [3][22] 3.3 Secondary Trading Performance - The index of ultra - long credit bonds has shown stable performance. In the latest week, the equity market has strengthened. Due to the stock - bond seesaw effect, the indexes of mainstream bond varieties have weakened, but the index of credit bonds over 7 years has been relatively stable, with the weekly increase of the AA+ credit bond index over 10 years being 0.18%. - The trading volume of ultra - long industrial bonds over 10 years has increased. Although the preference for ultra - long credit bonds has been disturbed by the strengthening of equity assets this week, the weekly trading volume of industrial bonds from 7 - 10 years has dropped to 448, while the trading volume of industrial bonds over 10 years has increased to 176, reaching a new high in weekly trading volume since 2024. In terms of trading returns, the average weekly trading return of industrial bonds over 7 years has dropped to a new low, and the spread between 7 - 10 - year varieties and 20 - 30 - year Treasury bonds has narrowed to 25BP. - The trading of ultra - long credit bonds is still mainly at a low valuation, and the low - valuation trading margin of industrial bonds from 20 - 30 years is at the forefront. However, the proportion of TKN trades in credit bonds over 7 years has decreased significantly, indicating that investors still have concerns about the sustainability of the market for this variety. - In terms of investor structure, insurance companies and funds have continued to buy ultra - long credit bonds this week, but the intensity of funds chasing long - term credit has slowed down, and the scale of increasing the position of 5 - 10 - year credit bonds this week has dropped to 3.2 billion [4][32][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In June, the capital market was loose with a slight downward shift in the capital center under the central bank's care. In July, the capital market may continue to be moderately loose due to favorable factors, but it may not loosen significantly [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 6 - Month Review: Central Bank's Care Leads to Slight Downward Shift in Capital Center - **Capital Market Looseness**: In June, the capital market remained loose, with most - term capital centers moving down. DR001, DR007, and DR014 operation centers decreased by 11bp, 2bp, and 1bp respectively compared to May. DR001 mostly operated below the policy rate, and the deviation of DR007 from the policy rate "anti - seasonally" narrowed [2][12]. - **Central Bank's Warm Attitude**: The central bank showed a warm attitude. It conducted two outright reverse - repurchase operations in June with early announcements, net - injecting 2000 billion yuan. MLF continued to increase, with a net injection of 118 billion yuan in June. The central bank's total net - injected funds in June were the second - highest among the same periods since 2018 [16]. - **Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit (NCD)**: In June, the maturity scale of NCDs reached a record high, and the issuance scale was the second - highest in history. However, the NCD issuance rate, after rising in mid - to - late May, started to decline in June under the central bank's long - term capital injection. The R - DR spread seasonally widened [3][19][21]. 3.2 7 - Month Outlook: Capital Market May Continue to be Moderately Loose under Favorable Factors - **Historical Seasonal Pattern**: Historically, capital rates in July tend to decline seasonally. Since 2018, the capital market in July has been more relaxed than in June, mainly manifested by the narrowing of the deviation of DR007 from the policy rate [4][24]. - **Exchange Rate Factor**: The recent dissipation of RMB depreciation pressure and the exchange rate approaching 7.15 mean that the current exchange - rate environment no longer restricts the central bank's monetary easing [4]. - **Central Bank's Mention of "Preventing Capital Idling"**: Although the central bank mentioned "preventing capital idling" in the second - quarter monetary policy meeting, since 2024, when this statement was made, the capital rate did not rise significantly. The central bank's frequent mention of it in 2025 may not be directly related to a change in its attitude [5][31][32]. - **Liquidity Gap**: In July, the net financing pressure of government bonds will slightly increase by 80 billion yuan compared to June. The increase in government deposits may widen the liquidity gap. Considering the maturity of monetary tools, the liquidity gap will be 2.06 trillion yuan. Assuming the central bank conducts equal - amount roll - overs, the estimated excess - reserve ratio in July is about 1.3%, slightly lower than in June [6][37][42].

2025 年 7 月 2 日 电力设备与新能源行业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业月报 证券研究报告 新能源与电力设备组 分析师：姚遥（执业 S1130512080001） yaoy＠gjzq.com.cn 锂电 6 月洞察：国内储能呈现抢装潮，固态设备迎中试交付 本月行业重要变化： 1）锂电：6 月 23 日，碳酸锂报价 5.96 万元/吨，较上月下降 7%；氢氧化锂报价 6.24 万元/吨，较上月下降 5%。 2）整车：5 月国内新能源乘用车批发销量达 122 万辆，同/环比+33%/+17%；1～5 月累计批发 498 万辆，同比+41%。 行情回顾： 2025 年 6 月以来，锂电板块表现较为活跃，超半数环节跑赢沪深 300 和上证 50 指数。三元正极板块实现领涨，涨幅 为 15%；部分板块呈现下跌态势，锂电隔膜、汽车零部件、新能源车板块下跌幅度分别为-3%、-3%、-6%。本月锂电相 关板块多数环节月度成交额继上月大幅下降后开始快速回升，主要系固态电池等板块资金交易活跃。本月多数锂电相 关板块处在 3 年历史估值分位底部，市场对锂电板块关注度回暖，未来存在进一步估值修复空间。 本月研究专题：政策加码制 ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Report's Core View - As of June 30, 2025, private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds in the outstanding credit bonds had higher overall valuation yields and spreads compared to other varieties. Compared with the previous week, the yields of non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds were mostly adjusted, with the 1 - 2 year private enterprise private non - perpetual variety having a relatively larger upward range, averaging 9.7BP. Among real estate bonds, the yields of state - owned enterprise private non - perpetual varieties increased more overall, with the 1 - 2 year variety rising 4.8BP. - In financial bonds, varieties with higher valuation yields and spreads included leasing company bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools, and securities sub - bonds. Compared with the previous week, the yields of most financial varieties increased. Specifically, the yields of 1 - 2 year private perpetual and within 1 year public perpetual varieties in leasing bonds increased by more than 5BP; the interest rate increase of each variety of general commercial financial bonds was less than 2BP; among Tier 2 capital bonds, the adjustment range of urban and rural commercial bank varieties was larger, with the yield of 2 - 3 year rural commercial bank Tier 2 bonds increasing by 9.8BP, but the yield of 3 - 5 year rural commercial bank Tier 2 bonds decreasing by more than 12BP; in addition, the yield increase of each maturity variety in securities company bonds and sub - bonds was controlled within 5BP. - For urban investment bonds, in public urban investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces were both below 2.4%; urban investment bonds with yields exceeding 4.5% appeared in prefecture - level and district - county levels in Guizhou. In private urban investment bonds, the weighted average valuation yields in coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian were below 2.8%; varieties with yields higher than 4% appeared in prefecture - level cities in Guizhou, Shaanxi, and Yunnan. Compared with the previous week, the yields of most public urban investment bonds increased slightly, and the yields of most varieties in private urban investment bonds also increased [2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Outstanding Credit Bonds - **Valuation Yields and Spreads**: Private enterprise industrial bonds and real estate bonds had higher overall valuation yields and spreads. The valuation yields and spreads of leasing company bonds, urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools, and securities sub - bonds in financial bonds were relatively high [2][3][4]. - **Yield Changes Compared to Last Week**: Non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds had yield adjustments, with the 1 - 2 year private enterprise private non - perpetual variety having an average increase of 9.7BP. Among real estate bonds, the 1 - 2 year state - owned enterprise private non - perpetual variety increased by 4.8BP. Most financial varieties saw yield increases, with specific increases varying by bond type [3][4]. Urban Investment Bonds Public Urban Investment Bonds - **Valuation Yields**: The weighted average valuation yields in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were below 2.4%, while yields exceeding 4.5% were in Guizhou's prefecture - level and district - county levels. Other regions like Guangxi, Yunnan, and Gansu had relatively high spreads [2]. - **Yield Changes Compared to Last Week**: Yields mostly increased slightly. Larger - increase varieties included 2 - 3 year non - perpetual bonds of Sichuan provincial level, 3 - 5 year non - perpetual bonds of Anhui provincial level, within 1 year non - perpetual bonds of Guizhou prefecture - level cities, and within 1 year perpetual bonds of Hebei provincial level [2]. Private Urban Investment Bonds - **Valuation Yields**: Coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian had weighted average valuation yields below 2.8%. Yields higher than 4% were in prefecture - level cities in Guizhou, Shaanxi, and Yunnan. Regions like Heilongjiang, Qinghai, and Gansu had relatively high spreads [2]. - **Yield Changes Compared to Last Week**: Yields of most varieties increased. The varieties with larger upward ranges were 3 - 5 year non - perpetual bonds of Guangxi prefecture - level cities (9.9BP), 1 - 2 year non - perpetual bonds of Shaanxi district - county levels (9.7BP), 1 - 2 year non - perpetual bonds of Jilin prefecture - level cities (8.0BP), and 3 - 5 year non - perpetual bonds of Liaoning prefecture - level cities (7.7BP) [2]. Industrial Bonds - **Non - financial and Non - real estate Industrial Bonds (State - owned Enterprises)**: The yields of private and public bonds were mostly adjusted compared to the previous week, with different adjustment ranges for different maturities [12]. - **Non - financial and Non - real estate Industrial Bonds (Private Enterprises)**: The 1 - 2 year private non - perpetual variety had a relatively large upward range in yield, averaging 9.7BP [3]. - **Real Estate Bonds (State - owned Enterprises)**: The yields of private non - perpetual varieties increased more overall, with the 1 - 2 year variety rising 4.8BP [3]. - **Real Estate Bonds (Private Enterprises)**: No information on private bonds; for public bonds, some maturity varieties had yield decreases [12]. Financial Bonds - **Leasing Company Bonds**: The yields of 1 - 2 year private perpetual and within 1 year public perpetual varieties increased by more than 5BP [4]. - **General Commercial Financial Bonds**: The interest rate increase of each variety was less than 2BP [4]. - **Tier 2 Capital Bonds**: Among urban and rural commercial bank varieties, the 2 - 3 year rural commercial bank Tier 2 bonds' yield increased by 9.8BP, while the 3 - 5 year rural commercial bank Tier 2 bonds' yield decreased by more than 12BP [4]. - **Securities Company Bonds and Sub - bonds**: The yield increase of each maturity variety was controlled within 5BP [4].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, assigning a target price of 132.30 RMB based on a 70x PE for 2025 [3]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic optical fiber connector manufacturer, heavily reliant on Corning, which accounts for 70% of its revenue. The partnership allows the company to indirectly supply major North American clients like NVIDIA and Microsoft [2][17]. - The main product, MPO (Multi-fiber Push On) connectors, is entering an upward cycle, supported by strong demand from data centers and advancements in technology such as CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) and OIO (Optical I/O) [2][49]. - The company has a competitive edge due to its close collaboration with Corning and its strategic positioning in the supply chain, which enhances profitability [2][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a leader in the optical device industry, with a product portfolio that includes passive optical components, active optical products, and optical sensing products. Optical connectors contribute significantly to its revenue [13][14]. - Corning is the largest customer, contributing 70% of revenue, with a strong focus on exports, which account for nearly 80% of total sales [17][26]. 2. Main Products and Market Dynamics - MPO connectors are crucial for short-distance interconnections in data centers, with the market expected to grow significantly due to the increasing demand for high-speed data transmission [49][50]. - The report highlights that the value of MPO per GPU is expected to increase as data center architectures evolve and transmission speeds rise, with estimates showing values reaching up to $381 per GPU in advanced configurations [58][59]. 3. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 2.01 billion RMB (+46%), 2.81 billion RMB (+40%), and 3.85 billion RMB (+37%), respectively. Net profit is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 430 million RMB (+65%) for 2025 [3][6]. - The company's gross margin is expected to remain strong, with a forecasted gross margin of 42% in 1Q25, reflecting its competitive position in the industry [36][30]. 4. Competitive Landscape - The MPO market is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape, with the top three players holding a combined market share of 36%. The company benefits from its established relationships and cost advantages in the supply chain [61][62]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancements in the MPO industry, which are expected to enhance the overall market valuation and competitive dynamics [2][49].

Group 1: Government Debt Issuance - In June, government debt issuance remained high at 2.8 trillion yuan, up from 2.3 trillion yuan in the previous period, with net financing of 1.41 trillion yuan[5] - By the end of June 2025, the net financing scale of government debt is projected to reach 7.8 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 56.2%[5] - The cumulative issuance progress for various types of government bonds is 52.0% for general bonds, 47.5% for special bonds, and 85.2% for special refinancing bonds[5] Group 2: Automotive Market Trends - From June 1 to June 22, retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.269 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24% and a month-on-month increase of 8%[8] - The price war in the automotive sector ended in June, with BYD offering discounts of up to 34% on certain models, boosting consumer purchasing intentions[8] - The automotive industry faces risks from intense competition, which may affect product quality and future maintenance services[4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The BCI index fell to 49.3 in June, indicating a cautious outlook among enterprises, with sales and profit expectations declining by 2.7 and 2.9 percentage points respectively[11] - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.2 points to 49.7% in June, with production and new orders indices improving to 51 and 50.2 respectively[19] - GDP growth for the second quarter is expected to be between 5.3% and 5.4%[20]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Standard Allocation" for the basic chemical sector, indicating a high potential for structural opportunities despite a lower probability of success [4]. Core Insights - The basic chemical sector currently has a high valuation safety margin, with the PB historical percentile dropping below 9% since 2010. When the PB percentile is below 10%, the sector's cost-effectiveness for allocation becomes apparent [4]. - Supply, cost, and demand sides continue to face disturbances, impacting the overall success rate of investments in this sector [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - Focus on sub-industries with marginal changes, such as pesticides, glyphosate, and sweeteners [4]. - Pay attention to the export chain, particularly lubricating oil additives, tires, and potassium fertilizers [4]. - Look for performance certainty in sectors like refrigerants and civil explosives [4]. Market Dynamics - The chemical industry is experiencing significant internal competition, with "change" being a focal point for attention [6]. - The industry is under pressure from substantial investments, with a compounded growth rate of 14.1% for raw materials and products over the past four years [17]. - The current investment cycle is nearing its end, with potential delays in capacity realization expected over the next 1-2 years [17]. Supply and Demand Trends - The chemical sector's inventory has not shown significant cyclical changes, remaining in a low-level oscillation state [20]. - Despite a slight recovery in chemical consumption due to government stimulus, the real estate sector continues to struggle, impacting overall demand [22][23]. Price Trends - The report highlights various price movements in the chemical sector, with glyphosate prices showing a year-on-year decrease of 10.26% as of May 2025 [36]. - The report also notes the price fluctuations of several chemicals, indicating a complex pricing environment influenced by supply chain disruptions and production capacity [34][35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic economy is in a stage of phased recovery of internal and external demand, driving the PMI index to repair upward for two consecutive months [5][11][25]. - In the third quarter, the economic fundamentals still face several pressures, including the potential drag of high - temperature weather on production, the risk of demand decline as the driving force of reduced external uncertainties weakens, and the market's pessimistic outlook on the future fundamentals reflected by the decline of business operation expectations and employment indexes [5][25]. - Whether the existing policies can be implemented faster and whether the Politburo meeting in July can provide new incremental information may be important catalysts to help the bond market break the current volatile pattern [5][25]. Summary by Directory 1. Demand Repair Drives Strong Production - The demand index rose to the expansion range for the first time since the intensification of trade frictions in March, with the new order index rising 0.4 points, and the increase was greater than that of production, indicating the effect of domestic demand expansion policies and the dual suppression of production by seasonality and unclear demand prospects [3][11]. - The rebound of domestic demand may be mainly driven by national subsidies and the "618" shopping festival, with a fragile structure, and the decline of the employment index also reflects this [11]. - The new export order index's upward slope slowed down significantly, and the export replenishment based on the easing of trade frictions may be nearing the end, and external demand may face a quarterly decline in the second half of the year [3][16]. - High - temperature weather in July - August may further drag down manufacturing production [11][12][13]. 2. Price Index Moderate Repair - The raw material price index and the ex - factory price index increased by 1.5 points respectively compared with the previous month. The rise of the raw material price index may be related to the increased geopolitical risks leading to greater fluctuations in international crude oil prices, and the increase in oil prices is transmitted to other raw material prices through transportation costs [4][19]. - The repair of the downstream price index may be related to the temporary suspension of national subsidies in some regions. After the central funds for trade - in are issued in July, the price trend of terminal products needs further attention [4][21]. 3. Strong Recovery in the Construction Industry - The drag of real estate on the construction industry has weakened. The construction industry PMI index rose 1.8 points to 52.8 this month, and the business activity index of housing construction returned to the expansion range [5][22]. - The business activity index of civil engineering construction was 56.7%, down 5.6 points from the previous month, but it has been in the high - prosperity range above 55.0% for three consecutive months, indicating that infrastructure is still the main force for the expansion of the construction industry [22]. - After the holiday effect fades, the consumer service industry has a seasonal decline, while the producer service industry is relatively strong [25].

- The macro timing strategy model suggests a recommended equity position of 45% for June, with signal strengths of 50% for economic growth and 40% for monetary liquidity[3][26][27] - The micro-cap stock rotation and timing signals remain strong, with the micro-cap/Chow index relative net value rising to 1.93 times, above its 243-day moving average of 1.41 times[4][29] - The micro-cap stock's 20-day price slope is 0.00257, indicating stronger upward momentum compared to the Chow index's -0.00019[4][29] - The risk warning has been lifted, with volatility congestion at -0.415%, well below the warning threshold of 0.55%, and the 10-year government bond yield at -0.27%, below the risk control line of 0.30%[4][29] - The market's recent rise has favored small-cap growth styles, leading to strong performance in market cap, consensus expectations, and growth factors, while technical and low-volatility factors have underperformed[4][40] - The market cap factor had the highest IC in the CSI 300 pool at 0.2241, while the growth factor had a weak signal in the CSI 500 pool with an IC of -0.0305[39] - The market cap factor also performed well in the entire A-share pool with an IC of 0.2347[39] - The weekly performance of multi-factor strategies showed the market cap factor leading with a gain of approximately +2.21% in the CSI 300 pool, while the growth factor rose by about +0.17%[39] - The consensus expectations factor and growth factor are expected to continue performing well, while technical and low-volatility factors may see a rebound as market sentiment slows down[40] - The convertible bond selection factors showed the stock growth factor leading with a gain of about 0.72%, followed by the stock consensus expectations factor with a return of about 0.63%[45] - The stock quality factor fell by about 0.26%, the stock value factor retreated by about 0.66%, and the convertible bond valuation factor had the largest decline of about 1.70%[45] Model Backtest Results - Macro timing strategy model, equity position: 45%[3][26][27] - Micro-cap stock/Chow index relative net value: 1.93 times[4][29] - Micro-cap stock 20-day price slope: 0.00257[4][29] - Volatility congestion: -0.415%[4][29] - 10-year government bond yield: -0.27%[4][29] - Market cap factor IC in CSI 300 pool: 0.2241[39] - Growth factor IC in CSI 500 pool: -0.0305[39] - Market cap factor IC in entire A-share pool: 0.2347[39] - Market cap factor weekly gain in CSI 300 pool: +2.21%[39] - Growth factor weekly gain in CSI 300 pool: +0.17%[39] - Stock growth factor weekly gain: 0.72%[45] - Stock consensus expectations factor weekly return: 0.63%[45] - Stock quality factor weekly decline: -0.26%[45] - Stock value factor weekly decline: -0.66%[45] - Convertible bond valuation factor weekly decline: -1.70%[45]

2025 年 06 月 30 日 国际关系动态报告 国际关系研究报告 证券研究报告 国金政策与战略组 分析师：杨佳妮（执业 S1130524040002） yangjiani@gjzq.com.cn 联系人：商景皓 shangjinghao@gjzq.com.cn 国金地缘政治周观察｜当前美国和各个国家贸易谈判进展 核心观点 地缘动向复盘：本周聚焦美国贸易谈判。美欧谈判方面，6 月 25 日北约峰会在荷兰海牙落幕，6 月 26 日欧盟在比 利时布鲁塞尔举行峰会，对美贸易谈判是峰会焦点之一。中美方面，6 月 27 日，中美贸易博弈迎来重大转折。卢特 尼克称美国已经与中国签署协议，中国商务部也表示双方进一步确认了框架细节。 国金观点周观察： （1）整体来看，美方对达成协议的急切程度高于其谈判对手，我们做出判断的原因主要基于三点：一是 7 月 9 日 谈判截止日即将到来，目前美国与主要国家的谈判仍无实质性进展。二是特朗普目前面临着经济与政治的压力，关 税问题若迟迟得不到解决，这将限制特朗普对其他问题的解决。三是 7 月 4 日为美国"独立日"，特朗普计划在此特 殊日期前后宣布一批政治成果，以达到政治宣传的效果。特朗 ...