Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong confidence in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovative drugs, predicting a reversal trend in 2025 [4] Core Viewpoints - The innovative drug sector is experiencing strong performance driven by multiple factors, including the completion of quarterly portfolio adjustments, increased policy support from the National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) and the National Health Commission, and significant collaborations in the industry [1][11] - The NHSA and the National Health Commission have jointly released measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, which will accelerate the commercialization of domestic innovative products and create a positive cycle of profitability and strong R&D investment [20][21] - The report highlights the potential of dual/multi-target antibodies in cancer treatment and innovative drugs addressing unmet clinical needs in chronic diseases as key investment opportunities [1][4] Summary by Sections Innovative Drugs - The innovative drug sector remains the main investment line, with a focus on dual/multi-target antibodies for various cancers and chronic diseases [1][11] - AstraZeneca is in talks for a collaboration worth up to $15 billion for the AK112 drug, which has catalyzed strong performance in related stocks [1] Pharmaceutical Sector - The NHSA's new measures will direct more healthcare resources towards innovative drugs, enhancing their commercialization and profitability [20][21] - The report notes that since 2018, 149 innovative drugs have been included in the healthcare insurance directory, significantly increasing the proportion of new drugs covered [22] Biologics - Changchun High-tech's new drug, Vuxin Qibai monoclonal antibody, has been approved for treating acute gout arthritis, marking a significant advancement in biologics [29][34] - The drug shows rapid onset of action and a substantial reduction in recurrence risk, highlighting its clinical significance [33][34] Traditional Chinese Medicine - Lingrui Pharmaceutical's new indication for its nasal spray is expected to boost sales, with ongoing efforts to expand hospital coverage and OTC sales [38][41] Medical Devices - The report emphasizes policy support for high-end medical devices, predicting accelerated commercialization in various segments such as medical robots and AI [3][4] Medical Services - Recent policies to enhance maternity benefits are expected to stimulate demand in related services [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home appliance industry, indicating a strong growth potential driven by domestic demand and favorable policies [7][47]. Core Insights - The 618 home appliance market in 2025 showed robust growth, with major categories experiencing increases in both retail volume and value, particularly in white goods and black goods [2][13]. - The recent US-Vietnam trade agreement is expected to boost sentiment in the Chinese home appliance export chain, providing greater policy certainty for regional export chains [3][21]. - The home appliance sector is transitioning from price-driven competition to a focus on user experience and product value, with significant upgrades in product structures [20][45]. Market Performance Tracking - The overall market is showing a recovery trend, with white goods maintaining stable prices and black goods experiencing significant growth, particularly in the TV market, which saw a 9.7% increase in volume and a 14.5% increase in value during the 618 period [2][13]. - The air conditioning segment demonstrated strong growth, with retail sales increasing over 15% both online and offline, driven by leading brands like Midea, Xiaomi, and Haier [15][20]. - The washing machine market also saw substantial growth, with online and offline retail sales increasing by 17.1% and 12.1% respectively, indicating a shift towards larger capacity and upgraded features [15][20]. Raw Material Price Tracking - Recent trends show a decrease in copper and aluminum prices, with copper down 0.69% and aluminum down 0.23% in the last week, while cold-rolled steel prices increased by 2.58% [29][34]. Exchange Rate and Shipping Price Tracking - As of July 4, 2025, the USD to RMB exchange rate was reported at 7.15, with a slight decrease of 0.01% week-on-week [35][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights three main investment themes: 1) Opportunities in new product forms and industry phases 2) Quality companies with solid fundamentals focusing on robotics 3) Leading companies in the black and white goods sectors [7][47].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the machinery sector, particularly highlighting specific companies for investment opportunities [13]. Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector shows short-term fluctuations in operating rates but maintains a long-term recovery logic driven by domestic demand [7][25]. - The new shipbuilding prices have stabilized and are showing signs of recovery, indicating an upward trend in industry sentiment [7][46]. - The gas turbine sector is experiencing robust growth, with significant increases in orders and production expected [7][55]. Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index increased by 0.26% over the past week, ranking 24th among 31 primary industry categories [3][16]. - Year-to-date, the SW Machinery Equipment Index has risen by 8.29%, ranking 7th among the same categories [3][18]. Key Data Tracking General Machinery - The general machinery sector continues to face pressure, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.7%, indicating contraction [24]. Engineering Machinery - The operating rate for major engineering machinery products was 56.9% in June, down 7.55% year-on-year [7][25]. - The average working hours for these products were 77.2 hours, reflecting a decline of 9.11% year-on-year [7][25]. Shipbuilding - The global new ship price index reached 187.11 in June, marking a 0.22% increase, the first rise since February [7][46]. Oilfield Equipment - The global rig count has stabilized at over 1,600 units, indicating a bottoming out of demand in the oilfield equipment sector [48]. Gas Turbines - The gas turbine sector is on a steady upward trajectory, with GEV's new orders increasing by 44.9% in Q1 2025 [55][56]. Industry Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery trends in various segments, including engineering machinery, shipbuilding, and gas turbines, as they present potential investment opportunities [7][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the liquor industry, suggesting a bottoming opportunity for investment in high-end liquor brands and potential cyclical recovery in beer and yellow wine sectors [2][11][12]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing pressure on sales due to external risks and a need for demand improvement, with expectations for the price of original box Feitian Moutai to stabilize around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The beer industry is showing signs of stabilization with a recovery in dining demand and potential for high-frequency sales tracking, suggesting a favorable outlook for the upcoming peak season [3][12]. - The yellow wine sector is witnessing a trend towards premiumization and market promotion efforts by leading brands, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [3][13]. - The snack food industry remains robust, driven by channel expansion and new product penetration, with expectations for continued high growth in Q2 [3][12]. - The soft drink sector is seeing demand improvement driven by health-oriented and functional beverages, with a positive outlook for brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [4][14]. - The seasoning industry is stabilizing at a low point, with growth relying on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant sector [5][15]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Feitian Moutai's original box price is stable between 1900-1950 RMB, with expectations for a price stabilization around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The industry is under pressure, but the market's expectations for short-term performance have been adequately priced in, suggesting a potential for recovery [12]. Beer Industry - The beer sector is expected to stabilize with a recovery in dining demand and increased focus on non-drinking channels [3][12]. - The industry is positioned for a favorable performance in the upcoming peak season, with anticipated steady mid-year earnings [3][12]. Yellow Wine Industry - The trend towards premiumization is becoming a consensus among leading brands, with increased marketing efforts and a focus on younger consumers [3][13]. Snack Food Industry - The snack food sector is maintaining high growth due to channel expansion and new product introductions, with Q2 performance expected to continue the positive trend [3][12]. Soft Drink Industry - The soft drink market is improving, driven by health and functional beverages, with brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring expected to perform well [4][14]. Seasoning Industry - The seasoning sector is stabilizing, with growth dependent on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant industry [5][15].

科创债 ETF 及获批机构划重点 首批科创债 ETF 登场。7 月 2 日，华夏基金、南方基金、易方达基金、博时基金、广发基金、招商基金、鹏华基金、 嘉实基金、富国基金和景顺长城基金上报的首批科创债 ETF 获得证监会批文。7 月 3 日，10 只科创债 ETF 的招募说明 书、基金合同、发售公告全部于其基金公司官网披露完毕，并宣布将于 7 月 7 日进行发售。首批申报科创债 ETF 的基 金公司包括华夏基金、易方达基金、南方基金、嘉实基金、广发基金、富国基金、博时基金、鹏华基金、景顺长城基 金、招商基金等 10 家机构，主要可分为三类，一是早期布局 ETF 基金的华夏基金、易方达基金等，其 ETF 基金规模 均在 6000 亿元以上；二是需要填补债券型 ETF 发展空白的机构，如嘉实基金、景顺长城基金目前还未发行债券型 ETF 产品；三是进一步丰富 ETF 产品类型的机构，如博时基金、富国基金、广发基金等，在旗下 ETF 基金规模较大的前提 下，积极参与新类型产品的开发。 科创债 ETF 跟踪指数特征简析 首批上报的 10 只科创债 ETF，主要跟踪中证 AAA 科创债、沪 AAA 科创债、深 AAA 科创 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 8.7 RMB based on a PE of 23X for 2025 [4]. Core Views - The acquisition of New潮传媒 is expected to benefit the company in three main areas: enhancing coverage and meeting diverse client needs, solidifying its leading position, and improving data integration for better effectiveness in advertising [2][14]. - The partnership with Alipay to integrate advertising and payment processes is anticipated to enhance the conversion chain from advertisement to consumer action, thereby increasing market potential for elevator advertising [3][35]. - The evolving consumer trends are likely to drive incremental advertising spending in the elevator media sector, particularly as new industries and brands emerge [3][38]. Summary by Sections Acquisition of New潮传媒 - The acquisition aims to complete the coverage of advertising points and demographics, thus better satisfying diverse brand advertising needs [14]. - The company’s leading market position is expected to be further strengthened, enhancing its bargaining power [14][25]. - Data integration post-acquisition is projected to facilitate better effectiveness in advertising campaigns [28]. Partnership with Alipay - The collaboration with Alipay is designed to create a seamless link between advertisement viewing and consumer interaction, potentially resolving attribution challenges in traditional elevator media [35]. - The rapid growth of Alipay's user base and its integration into the company's advertising channels is expected to enhance market reach [36]. New Consumer Trends - Analysis indicates that changes in consumer behavior will likely stimulate new advertising investments, particularly in competitive sectors like internet services and online education [38]. - The report highlights that as competition intensifies, advertising prices for effect-driven campaigns may rise, benefiting brand advertising [38]. - New consumer companies are expected to have robust advertising budgets due to their higher profitability and ongoing industry expansion [38]. Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 54.5 billion, 57.6 billion, and 61.9 billion RMB, respectively, with a PE ratio of 19, 18, and 17 [4][8].

Group 1: Trade Negotiation Strategies - The U.S. is using "reciprocal tariffs" as a negotiation tool to encourage trade partners to increase purchases of American goods and enhance supply chain security[2] - Countries like India, Pakistan, and Switzerland are likely to reach trade agreements with the U.S., while the EU, Japan, and South Korea are still in negotiations[2][21] - The U.S. has clarified its demands in trade negotiations, which will be crucial for reaching agreements by the July 9 deadline[4] Group 2: Trade Deficits and Tariff Rates - The trade deficit with China stands at $295.40 billion, with a proposed reciprocal tariff rate of 34%[5] - The EU has a trade deficit of $235.57 billion, with a proposed tariff rate of 20%[5] - India has a trade deficit of $45.66 billion, with a proposed tariff rate of 26%[24] Group 3: Economic Objectives - The U.S. aims to reduce its trade deficit primarily by increasing exports of energy and agricultural products, which account for about 28% of total exports[8] - The Trump administration seeks to reduce overseas spending and has linked trade policies to military spending commitments from NATO allies[12][13] - Strengthening domestic manufacturing and supply chain resilience is a key goal, especially in critical sectors like semiconductors and medical supplies[16] Group 4: Risks and Uncertainties - The uncertainty surrounding "reciprocal tariffs" may decrease, but the Trump administration retains tools like Section 232 and Section 301 tariffs, indicating ongoing trade policy uncertainty[2][30] - Non-U.S. countries are showing a willingness to compromise to reach trade agreements, while those failing to negotiate may face higher tariffs[30]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the investment suggestion indicates a positive outlook for companies involved in tire manufacturing and export to the U.S. market. Core Insights - Southeast Asia is a major import region for U.S. tires, with significant exports from Thailand and Vietnam despite tariff risks. In 2024, Thailand is expected to export over 42 million passenger car tires to the U.S., accounting for approximately 25% of total imports, while Vietnam is projected to export over 15.5 million, representing about 9% of total imports [2] - The U.S. has imposed tariffs on various tire imports, and the potential for increased tariffs could impact financial markets and corporate strategies. However, the limited elasticity of domestic supply in the U.S. suggests that companies may pass on costs to consumers through price increases [2] - Major tire manufacturers are expanding their global presence, with companies like Sailun and Linglong establishing production bases in Southeast Asia, Mexico, and Europe to mitigate risks associated with U.S. tariffs and to enhance their market share [2] Summary by Sections Industry Analysis - The primary sources of tire imports to the U.S. include Thailand, Mexico, Canada, Japan, and Vietnam. Cambodia is also increasing its exports due to new production capacities. In 2024, Thailand is expected to export 16 million truck tires to the U.S., making up 27% of total imports, while Vietnam's exports are projected at 8.8 million, or 15% of total imports [2] - The establishment of production bases in Southeast Asia is a strategic response to U.S. trade policies, with companies like Zhongce Rubber and Sailun expanding their operations internationally to ensure supply chain stability and cost advantages [2] Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include: - Sailun Tire: A leading domestic tire manufacturer with bases in Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Mexico, focusing on global expansion and brand development [2] - Senqcia: Operating in Thailand and Morocco, while advancing its European factory projects [2] - Linglong Tire: A top domestic tire company with strong supporting businesses and bases in Thailand and Serbia [2] - General Shares: With operations in Thailand and Cambodia, poised for significant growth as overseas production ramps up [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report conducts a comprehensive tracking and analysis of the supply and trading of local government bonds, covering aspects such as the overview of the stock market, the rhythm of primary supply, and the characteristics of secondary trading [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Market Overview - As of June 27, 2025, the local government bond stock scale reached 51.79 trillion yuan. New special bonds accounted for over 43% of the outstanding local bonds, and refinancing special bonds accounted for 21% [11]. - Among the special bonds with clear funding uses, the stock balances of shantytown renovation, park and new - area construction, and rural revitalization were 1.97 trillion, 1.57 trillion, and 1.12 trillion yuan respectively. The stock balance of toll roads exceeded 880 billion yuan, and that of water conservancy and ecological projects was over 200 billion yuan [11]. - As of June 27, 2025, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong ranked top three in local government bond stock scale, with 3.45 trillion, 3.28 trillion, and 3.1 trillion yuan respectively. Other GDP - large provinces like Sichuan, Zhejiang, Hunan, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, and Anhui also had a stock scale above 5 trillion [11]. 3.2 Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week, local government bonds worth 641.644 billion yuan were issued, including 422.296 billion yuan of new special bonds and 77.187 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Ordinary/project income" and "repayment of local bonds" were the main investment areas for special bond funds [19]. - As of June 27, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in June had reached 166.826 billion yuan, accounting for 14.19% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [19]. - In terms of the issuance term structure, the issuance proportion of local bonds within 7 years was relatively high last week, reaching 27.33%. The average coupon rates of local bonds for each major term were basically the same as those two weeks ago. The spread between the issuance rate of 30 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds narrowed to 17.94BP, and that of 20 - year local bonds narrowed slightly to 14.46BP. The upper limit of the bid - rate for new bonds rebounded compared to two weeks ago, and the primary bidding sentiment remained sluggish [30]. - Last week, 8 provinces had new issuances. Shanghai had the largest new local bond issuance this month, amounting to 127.059 billion yuan, with terms mainly concentrated within 7 years and 7 - 10 years. Except for Hebei Province, where the terms were concentrated in 20 - 30Y, the terms of other provinces were mainly concentrated within 7 years and 7 - 10 years. Except for Tianjin, the average issuance rates of other provinces were below 2% [38]. 3.3 Secondary Trading Characteristics - As of June 27, 2025, the yield of 10 - year local bonds was 1.8%, and the spread with the same - term treasury bonds was 15.38BP, at the 30.2% quantile in the past 24 years. The price - difference quantiles of 15 - year and 30 - year varieties were 41.9% and 66.4% respectively [42]. - Last week, the turnover rates of local bonds for each major term increased slightly. The weekly turnover rate of bonds over 10 years was the highest, reaching 1.24%. In terms of regions, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Sichuan had a relatively large number of transactions, all exceeding 200. Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian also had over 100 transactions. The average transaction term of local bonds last week was 16.6 years, and the average yield was 1.89% [46]. - In terms of the investor structure, commercial banks, insurance companies, securities proprietary departments, and broad - based funds were the most active institutions in local government bond trading. Insurance companies remained the main undertakers of local government bond supply, with a total net purchase of local government bonds reaching 313.96 billion yuan, of which the purchase proportion of bonds over 20 - 30 years reached 78.59% [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In economic growth, cement prices have dropped to the lowest level in the same period of the past five years, while power plant daily consumption has been rising continuously. In terms of inflation, pork prices are fluctuating at a low level, and oil prices are oscillating [1][3] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Economic Growth: Cement Drops to the Lowest Level in the Same Period of the Past Five Years 1.1 Production: Power Plant Daily Consumption Continues to Rise - Power plant daily consumption is rising continuously. On July 1, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 842,000 tons, a 5.1% increase from June 24. On June 24, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 1.84 million tons, a 0.7% increase from June 13 [4][11] - The blast furnace operating rate remains stable at a high level. On June 27, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.8%, unchanged from June 20; the capacity utilization rate was 90.85%, a 0.04 - percentage - point increase from June 20. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 94.2%, unchanged from June 20 [4][14] - The tire operating rate fluctuates within a narrow range. On June 26, the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires was 65.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from June 19; the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires was 78.1%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from June 19. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions declined slightly [4][17] 1.2 Demand: Cement Drops to the Lowest Level in the Same Period of the Past Five Years - The property market sales continue to improve month - on - month. On July 1, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 235,000 square meters, a 103.0% increase from June, a 46.6% decrease from July last year, and a 5.7% increase from July 2023 [4][21] - The automobile market retail sales are stable and relatively strong. In June, retail sales increased by 24% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 14% year - on - year [4][23] - Steel prices vary. On July 1, compared with June 24, rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled prices increased by 1.3%, decreased by 1.9%, increased by 1.6%, and decreased by 0.3% respectively [4][28] - Cement has dropped to the lowest level in the same period of the past five years. On July 1, the national cement price index decreased by 1.4% compared with June 24. The cement prices in East China and the Yangtze River regions decreased by 3.5% and 4.3% respectively, weaker than the national average [4][29] - Glass prices fluctuate weakly. On July 1, the active glass futures contract price was 988 yuan/ton, a 2.6% decrease from June 24 [4][35] - The decline of the container shipping freight rate index has slowed down. On June 27, the CCFI index increased by 2.0% compared with June 20, while the SCFI index decreased by 0.4% [4][38] 2. Inflation: Pork Prices Fluctuate at a Low Level 2.1 CPI: Pork Prices Fluctuate at a Low Level - Pork prices fluctuate at a low level. On July 1, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.2 yuan/kg, a 0.4% decrease from June 24 [4][42] - The agricultural product price index is declining moderately. On July 1, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.3% compared with June 24 [4][47] 2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Oscillate - Oil prices oscillate. On July 1, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 68.8 and 65.5 US dollars/barrel respectively, a 0.6% decrease and a 1.7% increase from June 24 [4][50] - Copper and aluminum prices rise. On July 1, the LME 3 - month copper and aluminum prices increased by 2.2% and 1.4% respectively compared with June 24 [4][54] - The month - on - month increase of the domestic commodity index has narrowed. On July 1, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased by 0.2% compared with June 24, and the CRB index increased by 0.4% [4][54] - Industrial product prices vary. Since July, the month - on - month prices of coking coal, coke, and hot - rolled sheets have increased, while the month - on - month prices of cement, glass, steam coal, and other steel products have decreased. The year - on - year decline of most industrial product prices has narrowed [59]