Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the home appliance sector, indicating a strong certainty in domestic demand growth and potential for export growth in emerging markets [7][40]. Core Insights - The adjustment of national subsidy policies aims to optimize resource allocation and enhance fund efficiency, guiding the industry towards high-quality development [3][14]. - The subsidy model is shifting from a "universal" approach to "precise control," with a pilot "quota allocation" model in Jiangsu expected to become a national standard [3][16]. - The current funding disbursement mechanism may transition from a pre-allocation based on reimbursement ratios to a "total pre-allocation" system, improving cash flow for enterprises [3][16]. - Online supervision is being strengthened to reduce arbitrage opportunities, with regions like Guangdong and Shanghai tightening cross-regional subsidies [3][16]. - The price system is expected to stabilize, with leading brands likely to initiate structural price increases as subsidy limits are imposed, leading to a more rational competitive environment [3][17]. Market and Sector Tracking - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 0.88%, while the Shenwan Home Appliance Index decreased by 1.4% [4][18]. - Key stock performers included Springlight Technology (+28.64%), Beilingsong (+21.17%), and Hesheng New Materials (+15.81%), while Midea Group (-4.25%), Hisense Visual (-3.98%), and Boss Electric (-3.74%) saw declines [4][18]. - Raw material prices showed a mixed trend, with copper prices up by 1.45% and aluminum prices down by 0.80% during the week [21][23]. Real Estate Data Tracking - In April 2025, the cumulative area of new residential construction was 131,639.8 thousand square meters, down 22.6% year-on-year [5][32]. - The cumulative area of residential construction was 4,319,367.5 thousand square meters, down 10.1% year-on-year [5][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: 1) Capitalizing on domestic demand and subsidy policies, particularly in the white goods sector [7][40]. 2) Investing in the black goods sector, which continues to show structural upgrade logic [7][40]. 3) Targeting the cleaning appliance segment, which remains promising in terms of growth [7][40].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [80]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.91% [13][14]. - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in the pig farming industry, with a focus on the profitability of leading companies amidst fluctuating prices [22]. - The poultry sector is experiencing price stability despite seasonal demand fluctuations, with potential impacts from overseas avian influenza affecting supply [35]. - The dairy industry is seeing a recovery in milk prices due to reduced supply, while beef prices are expected to rise as the industry undergoes capacity adjustments [39]. - The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements expected if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external uncertainties [47]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2682.22 points, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.91%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [13][14]. - The top-performing sectors included telecommunications and non-ferrous metals, while agriculture ranked 20th [14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs sold was 129.17 kg, with a slight decrease in price to 14.05 CNY/kg, down 2.90% week-on-week [20][21]. - Leading companies are expected to maintain profitability above 200 CNY per pig in the first half of the year, despite anticipated price pressures in the second half [22]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens was 7.32 CNY/kg, showing a decrease of 0.68% week-on-week, while overall prices remain stable [32][35]. - The report anticipates a recovery in consumer demand as macroeconomic policies adjust, potentially boosting poultry product consumption [35]. 2.3 Dairy Industry - The price of raw milk has stabilized at 2.6 CNY/kg, with expectations for further recovery as supply decreases [39]. - The beef market is showing signs of a new cycle, with rising prices for calves and live cattle [39]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Grain prices are experiencing fluctuations due to tariff policies, with corn prices at 2294.29 CNY/ton and soybeans at 3925.26 CNY/ton [46]. - The planting sector is stabilizing, with potential improvements if significant reductions in grain production occur [47]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with pig feed at 3.37 CNY/kg and poultry feed at 3.40 CNY/kg [65]. - Aquaculture prices remain steady, with notable increases in shrimp prices [65].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: FuGuo ETF Rotation Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on the FuGuo ETF rotation factor, which evaluates ETFs' investment value from four dimensions: profitability, operational quality, valuation momentum, and analyst expectations. These dimensions are combined into a composite rotation factor through standardization and equal weighting[26][30]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Profitability Factors**: - **Excluding Non-recurring Profit Growth (QoQ)**: Measures the quarterly change in net profit after excluding non-recurring items, aggregated using the median method[30][31]. - **Net Profit Growth (YoY)**: Measures the year-over-year change in net profit, aggregated using the median method[30][31]. 2. **Operational Quality Factors**: - **Operating Capital Turnover**: Ratio of operating capital to operating revenue, calculated semi-annually using the "leading stock" method[30][31]. - **Operating Capital Proportion**: Ratio of operating capital to total assets, calculated year-over-year using the "leading stock" method[30][31]. 3. **Valuation Momentum Factor**: - **Inverse Price-to-Earnings Ratio**: Measures the semi-annual change in the inverse P/E ratio, reflecting market sentiment[30][31]. 4. **Analyst Expectation Factor**: - **Analyst Forecast Change**: Tracks the 3-month change in analysts' consensus EPS forecasts, aggregated using the "leading stock" method[30][31]. 5. The above six factors are standardized and equally weighted to form the FuGuo ETF rotation factor[26][30]. - **Model Evaluation**: The FuGuo ETF rotation factor demonstrates strong predictive power for ETF performance, with stable IC values and effective multi-dimensional evaluation of ETF investment value[26][30]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. FuGuo ETF Rotation Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 7.26%[19] - **Annualized Volatility**: 21.92%[19] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.33[19] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 42.20%[19] - **Turnover Rate (Monthly)**: 53.21%[19] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 5.49%[19] - **Tracking Error**: 9.27%[19] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 0.59[19] - **Excess Maximum Drawdown**: 15.23%[19] - **May 2025 Return**: -2.03%[19] - **May 2025 Excess Return**: -3.46%[19] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: FuGuo ETF Rotation Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor evaluates ETFs' investment value by integrating profitability, operational quality, valuation momentum, and analyst expectations into a composite score[26][30]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **Profitability Factors**: - **Excluding Non-recurring Profit Growth (QoQ)**: Measures the quarterly change in net profit after excluding non-recurring items, aggregated using the median method[30][31]. - **Net Profit Growth (YoY)**: Measures the year-over-year change in net profit, aggregated using the median method[30][31]. 2. **Operational Quality Factors**: - **Operating Capital Turnover**: Ratio of operating capital to operating revenue, calculated semi-annually using the "leading stock" method[30][31]. - **Operating Capital Proportion**: Ratio of operating capital to total assets, calculated year-over-year using the "leading stock" method[30][31]. 3. **Valuation Momentum Factor**: - **Inverse Price-to-Earnings Ratio**: Measures the semi-annual change in the inverse P/E ratio, reflecting market sentiment[30][31]. 4. **Analyst Expectation Factor**: - **Analyst Forecast Change**: Tracks the 3-month change in analysts' consensus EPS forecasts, aggregated using the "leading stock" method[30][31]. 5. The above six factors are standardized and equally weighted to form the FuGuo ETF rotation factor[26][30]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor demonstrates stable performance with an average IC of 6.80% and a risk-adjusted IC of 0.22, indicating its effectiveness in predicting ETF performance[12][14]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. FuGuo ETF Rotation Factor - **Average IC**: 6.80%[12] - **Standard Deviation of IC**: 31.51%[12] - **Minimum IC**: -59.85%[12] - **Maximum IC**: 78.19%[12] - **Risk-adjusted IC**: 0.22[12] - **T-statistic**: 2.24[12] - **May 2025 IC**: -30.91%[14] - **May 2025 Long-Short Portfolio Return**: -6.96%[14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Offline retail: Yonghui's employee training system is continuously upgraded, and the "Craftsman Plan" is steadily progressing. The training center and operations center have developed national skill standards covering seven core projects, with over 3,000 technician certifications expected to be completed by mid-June [1][12] - Online retail: AI empowerment is gradually strengthening, with Kuaishou's Keling achieving an annualized revenue run rate exceeding 100 million USD, and Meituan launching the first AI tool for hotel merchants in China [2][15] Industry Data Tracking - GMV performance: In the second week of May, the overall GMV of Tmall and JD.com decreased by 6.23% year-on-year. The top five categories in terms of growth were automotive and bicycles, consumer electronics, services, home appliances, and toys [3][17] Market Review - From June 2 to June 6, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.13%, 1.42%, 0.88%, 2.16%, and 2.25% respectively. The retail trade sector rose by 1.29%, ranking sixth among nine major consumption sectors [4][22] Investment Recommendations - Yonghui Supermarket: The business model has undergone fundamental changes, moving towards a selective retail route with long-term growth potential in the post-consumption era. Yonghui has unique competitive advantages, including a strong focus on fresh produce, scale advantages, and financing benefits from its listed status [5][30] - Meituan: The takeaway service is entering a new competitive landscape, with long-term confidence in the barriers built in user mindset, rider, and merchant sides. User loyalty is expected to remain strong despite competition from JD.com [6][32]

本期微观交易温度计读数回升 2 个百分点至 43% 本期除交易热度外，其余指标分位均值均上升。交易热度中主要是因为相对换手率、TL/T 多空比分位值不同程度回落， 带动交易热度分位均值下降 7 个百分点。除此外，回升幅度较大的指标包括基金分歧度、上市公司理财买入量、不动 产比价、政策利差。 本期位于偏热区间的指标数量小幅依然为 10% 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量依然为 2 个（占比 10%）、位于中性区间的指标数量上升至 11 个（占比 55%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量下降至 7 个（占比 35%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，30/10Y 国债换手率由中性区间 降至偏冷区间，配置盘力度由过热区间降至中性区间，政策利差、股债比价均由偏冷区间升至中性区间，机构杠杆由 中性区间升至过热区间。 交易热度分位均值下降 7 个百分点 分类别来看，①本期交易热度指标中，30/10Y、1/10Y 相对换手率分位值继续下降 43、10 个百分点，TL/T 多空比分 位值也继续降低 6 个百分点。全市场换手率、机构杠杆分位值上升 7、11 个百分点，因此交易热度分位均值下降 7 个 百分点。②机构行为类中， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, indicating a strong risk appetite and suggesting investment opportunities in various sectors, particularly in virtual assets and Web 3.0 [3][10]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a significant increase in risk appetite, with improved asset quality and trading volume, highlighting the value of asset trading platforms [3][10]. - There is a notable uptrend in multiple sectors such as AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a particular focus on small and mid-cap stocks in media and consumer sectors [3][10]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing development of virtual assets and the Web 3.0 market, driven by stablecoin policies and recent IPOs, suggesting that more regulatory frameworks will emerge [3][10]. - The trend of Chinese companies returning to Hong Kong for IPOs is gaining momentum, with increased trading of companies like NetEase and Ctrip in the Hong Kong market [3][10]. - The valuation of overseas Chinese assets remains influenced by US-China trade relations and the broader economic environment, necessitating close monitoring of trade policies and domestic economic changes [3][10]. Summary by Sections Education - The K12 education sector maintains high growth, with leading institutions reporting over 20% revenue growth during the winter training period, and an increase in non-academic course retention rates [5][11]. Luxury Goods - The luxury goods market shows slight pressure due to macroeconomic factors, but brands that align with demand trends are performing well, with cautious price increases observed [5][20]. Coffee and Tea Drinks & OTA - Coffee and tea remain key categories for delivery platforms, with strong performance from major brands like Luckin Coffee, which continues to expand its store presence [5][25]. E-commerce - The e-commerce sector faces slight pressure, but major platforms like Alibaba and JD.com are expected to benefit from ongoing promotional activities [5][26]. Streaming Platforms - Music streaming platforms are viewed as high-quality internet assets, with sustained profitability driven by scale effects [5][34]. Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The stablecoin leader Circle's IPO saw a 168% increase on its first day, marking a significant event in the virtual asset space [5][38]. Real Estate Transactions - Recent data shows a slight decline in second-hand housing transactions in major cities, suggesting a need for caution in the real estate market [5][50]. Automotive Services - The automotive aftermarket is under pressure, with traditional fuel vehicle service visits declining, while new energy vehicle service visits are increasing [5][45].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [76]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.91% [13][14]. - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments in the pig farming industry, with a focus on the profitability of leading companies amidst fluctuating prices [20][21]. - The poultry sector is experiencing price stabilization despite seasonal demand fluctuations, with potential impacts from avian influenza affecting supply [33][29]. - The dairy and beef sectors are showing signs of recovery, with rising prices for raw milk and beef, indicating a potential upward trend in profitability [37]. - The planting industry is stabilizing, with potential improvements expected if there are significant reductions in grain production due to external factors [44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural index closed at 2682.22 points, with a weekly increase of 0.91%, outperforming major indices [13][14]. - The top-performing sectors included telecommunications and non-ferrous metals, while agriculture ranked 20th [14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market was 129.17 kg, with prices showing a slight decline [19][20]. - Leading companies are expected to maintain profitability above 200 CNY per pig in the first half of the year [21]. - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the second half of the year due to supply pressures [21]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - White feather chicken prices decreased to 7.32 CNY/kg, while overall prices remained stable [29][33]. - The report anticipates a recovery in consumer demand as macroeconomic policies adjust [33]. 2.3 Dairy and Beef Industry - Raw milk prices have stabilized at 2.6 CNY/kg, with expectations for further recovery in the second half of 2025 [37]. - The beef market is showing signs of a new cycle, with rising prices for calves and live cattle [37]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Grain prices are experiencing fluctuations due to tariff policies and external uncertainties [44]. - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing grain yields to counteract potential production declines [44]. 2.5 Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with slight variations in water product prices [64]. - The report notes that prices for various fish species remain steady, with some increases in shrimp prices [64].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive long-term investment outlook for the home furnishing sector, particularly for companies with high dividend support and strong growth potential in 2025 [4][11]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is experiencing weak domestic order intake since May, with government subsidies losing their stimulating effect on demand. However, there are long-term investment opportunities for leading domestic companies with high earnings growth certainty and attractive valuations [4][11]. - The new tobacco sector is expected to see a mid-single-digit growth in H1 2025, with a potential for double-digit growth when excluding the impact of illegal vaping products in North America. The HNB business is anticipated to accelerate in H2 2025 [4][12]. - The paper industry is stabilizing with paper prices holding steady, but overall demand remains weak due to seasonal factors, leading to a forecast of continued weak pricing [4][13]. - The light consumer goods and pet sectors are showing high growth potential, with a focus on companies that demonstrate clear performance and innovative product offerings [4][14]. - The two-wheeler sector is facing short-term pressure but is expected to rebound in H2 2025 with the implementation of new national standards and the continuation of trade-in policies [4][15]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic order intake has been weak since May, with government subsidies losing effectiveness. There is a recommendation to focus on leading domestic companies with high earnings growth certainty and attractive valuations for long-term investment [4][11]. - Specific companies recommended include Sophia, Gujia Home, and Mousse, which are expected to benefit from strategic channel improvements and product innovations [4][11]. New Tobacco Sector - British American Tobacco has updated its H1 2025 earnings expectations, forecasting low single-digit growth, with a potential acceleration in H2 2025. The HNB business is expected to see significant growth due to successful product launches in key markets [4][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of compliance brands and the growth opportunities within the industry as regulations tighten against illegal products [4][12]. Paper Industry - Paper prices are stabilizing, with prices for various paper types remaining unchanged. However, demand is weak due to seasonal factors, and the overall pricing outlook remains weak [4][13]. - The report notes that inventory levels are high, and supply pressures are expected to increase due to rising imports from Brazil [4][13]. Light Consumer Goods & Pet Sector - The report highlights the importance of innovation and clear performance metrics in the light consumer goods and pet sectors. Companies like Guibao Pet are noted for their strong market positioning and growth potential [4][14]. - The introduction of new products and the expansion of online sales channels are key growth drivers [4][14]. Two-Wheeler Sector - The two-wheeler market is experiencing short-term pressure but is expected to recover in H2 2025 with new regulations and product launches. Companies like Yadi Holdings are recommended for their strong market position and growth potential [4][15]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong product offerings and effective channel strategies [4][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting a potential growth exceeding the market average in the coming months [37]. Core Insights - Lululemon's FY25Q1 performance shows steady growth with revenue of $2.371 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.32%, although slightly below analyst expectations of $2.57 billion. The gross margin improved by 0.62 percentage points to 58.34% due to reduced product costs and optimized discounts [10][12]. - The company expects full-year revenue to be between $11.15 billion and $11.30 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5%-7%. Excluding the additional week in 2024, the expected growth is 7%-8% [15][10]. - In North America, revenue reached $1.675 billion, a 3% increase year-on-year, while the Chinese market showed strong performance with revenue of $368 million, up 21% year-on-year [12][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Data Tracking - In April, apparel retail sales grew by 2.2%, underperforming the overall consumer market due to adverse weather conditions affecting spring apparel sales. The report anticipates improvement in May due to better weather and increased consumer activity [16][3]. - Raw material prices remained stable, with fluctuations in cotton and synthetic fiber prices noted [19][20]. Investment Recommendations - For apparel brands, recommendations include Hai Lan Home, which is adapting to consumer trends and expanding its store presence, and Anta Sports, which is expected to benefit from strong performance in its multi-brand strategy. Additionally, recommendations include leading brands like Bi Yin Le Fen and All Cotton Times [22][4]. - In the upstream manufacturing sector, the report suggests that leading textile manufacturers like Zhejiang Ziran and Shenzhou International are well-positioned to benefit from market shifts due to tariff impacts [22][4]. Market Review and Company News - The textile and apparel sector saw a 1.89% increase in the past week, with notable performances from companies like Langsha and Huasheng [23][28]. - Key company announcements include Nanshan Zhishang's stock issuance and Jiangnan Buyi's land bidding for industrial use [34][34].

敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 折价幅度靠前 50 只 AA 城投债（主体评级）中，"24 淮建 01"估值价格偏离程度最大。净价跌幅靠前 50 只个券中， "25 深铁 03"估值价格偏离幅度最大。净价上涨幅度靠前 50 只个券中，"22 万科 04"估值价格偏离幅度最大。净 价上涨幅度靠前 50 只二永债中，"23 中行二级资本债 01B"估值价格偏离程度最大。 统计数据偏差或遗漏，高估值个券出现信用风险 扫码获取更多服务 固定收益动态(动态) 图表1：折价幅度靠前 50 只 AA 城投债（主体评级） | 债券名称 | 剩余期 限(年) | 估值价格 偏离(%) | 估值净价 (元) | 估值收益 | 当日估值 收益(%) | 票面利率 (%) | 隐含评 级 | 主体评 级 | 成交日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 率偏离 | | | | | | | | | | | (bp) | | | | | | | 24 淮建 01 | 4.28 | -0.25 | 101.55 | 6.20 | ...