证券板块 本周券商行情驱动因素主要来自中美谈判缓和提振市场情绪以及行业并购重组主题持续发酵。1）6 月 6 日，证监会核 准中央汇金成为长城国瑞证券等 8 家金融机构的实际控制人；2）国信并购案临近审核，6 月 13 日，国信证券公告其 发行股份收购万和证券 96.08%股权事项，将于 6 月 19 日接受深交所并购重组委审核，进一步强化券商并购重组主题。 投资建议：建议关注四条主线：（1）港交所：ADT 增长有望驱动业绩与估值提升（25/05 ADT 为 2103 亿元，同比+50%； 累计 ADT 为 2423 亿元；截至 25/05 末上市公司数量 2633 家，同比+23 家）。（2）四川双马：创投行业或会迎来进一步 政策催化，科技赛道占优，创投业务有望受益。公司管理基金的已投项目——奕斯伟科技（2024/12/24 状态更新为已 问询）、奕斯伟计算技术（2025/5/30 向港交所递交上市申请）、邦德激光（高端装备，2024/1/3 进行上市辅导备案）、 屹唐半导体（2025/3/13 证监会批复注册）、群核科技（"杭州六小龙"之一，2025/2/14 向港交所递交上市申请）、丽 豪半导体（拟最快 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the AI-related sectors, particularly in servers and IDC, driven by strong demand for AI computing power and infrastructure [4]. Core Insights - The continuous breakthroughs in large model capabilities are expected to accelerate AI penetration across various industries, leading to sustained growth in computing power demand [1]. - Oracle's capital expenditure guidance indicates strong AI demand, with projected cloud revenue growth exceeding 40% in FY26 [1]. - NVIDIA's plans to deploy over 3000 EFLOPS of AI computing power in Europe and establish 20 AI factories highlight the increasing demand for AI infrastructure [1]. - The report emphasizes the robust growth in AI computing demand, particularly in Europe, and recommends focusing on companies within NVIDIA's supply chain [2][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The telecommunications sector is experiencing steady growth, with major operators reporting a 1.0% year-on-year increase in telecom revenue [3]. - The AI computing demand remains strong globally, with NVIDIA's initiatives in Europe expected to significantly boost AI capabilities [6]. Sub-Sector Analysis - **Servers**: The server index decreased by 2.10% this week but has a monthly increase of 2.11%. The demand for AI computing power is expected to rise sharply in Europe due to NVIDIA's initiatives [2][6]. - **Optical Modules**: The optical module sector saw a 1.64% increase this week, with a monthly rise of 13.47%. The demand for 800G/1.6T modules is expected to increase due to Oracle's capital expenditure adjustments [2][10]. - **IDC**: The IDC index decreased by 1.85% this week but has increased by 4.44% this month. The establishment of AI factories in Europe is anticipated to drive IDC construction [14]. Key Data Updates - Major telecom operators reported a total revenue of 598.5 billion yuan in the first four months, reflecting a 1.0% year-on-year growth [3]. - Capital expenditures from major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon have shown significant year-on-year increases, indicating strong investment in AI infrastructure [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as servers and IDC driven by domestic AI development, as well as optical modules benefiting from overseas AI growth [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The copper market shows a stable upward trend with expectations of tightening supply in the second half of the year [14] - The aluminum market is stabilizing at the bottom, with better-than-expected production in photovoltaic aluminum profiles [14] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are gaining attractiveness due to heightened geopolitical tensions [14] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Bulk and Precious Metals Market - Copper prices decreased by 0.24% to $9647.50 per ton on LME, while Shanghai copper fell by 1.17% to 78,000 yuan per ton [15] - Aluminum prices increased by 2.10% to $2503.00 per ton on LME, and Shanghai aluminum rose by 1.84% to 20,000 yuan per ton [3] - Gold prices rose by 3.16% to $3452.60 per ounce, driven by increased safe-haven demand amid international tensions [17] 2. Updates on Bulk and Precious Metals Fundamentals 2.1 Copper - The import copper concentrate processing fee index dropped to -$44.75 per ton [15] - National copper inventory decreased by 0.47 thousand tons to 14.48 thousand tons [15] - Expected increase in operating rates for copper enterprises in China by 1.57 percentage points to 54.56% by June 2025 [15] 2.2 Aluminum - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 17,000 tons to 460,000 tons [3] - The operating rate of aluminum processing leaders fell by 0.4 percentage points to 60.9% [3] 2.3 Precious Metals - SPDR gold holdings increased by 4.27 tons to 940.49 tons [17] - Geopolitical events, including the escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran, have increased gold's short-term safe-haven appeal [17] 3. Overview of Minor Metals and Rare Earths Market - The rare earth sector is experiencing upward momentum, with export controls likely to drive prices higher [35] - Antimony prices are expected to rebound due to new certification standards for flame-retardant cables [39] - Molybdenum prices remain stable, with a positive outlook due to increased demand in the steel industry [40] 4. Updates on Minor Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals 4.1 Rare Earths - Prices for dysprosium and terbium remained stable at $800 and $3500 per ton, respectively [36] - The Chinese government is facilitating compliant trade for heavy rare earth products [36] 4.2 Antimony - Antimony ingot prices fell to 189,500 yuan per ton, reflecting weak export demand [39] - The upcoming implementation of stricter standards for flame-retardant cables may boost demand for antimony [39] 4.3 Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices remained stable at 3840 yuan per ton [40] - Steel procurement volumes have increased by 8% year-on-year, supporting molybdenum demand [40] 5. Overview of Energy Metals Market - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 0.4% to 60,400 yuan per ton, while hydroxide prices decreased by 2.18% to 66,000 yuan per ton [6] - Cobalt prices remained stable, while nickel prices decreased by 2.5% to $15,100 per ton [6]

Group 1 - The report indicates a divergence in the performance of simulated portfolios, with most strategies experiencing a decline in returns, while some credit style portfolios saw a rebound [2][14][15] - In the interest rate style portfolios, the city investment ultra-long and city investment barbell strategies achieved returns of 0.22% and 0.17% respectively, while in the credit style portfolios, the city investment ultra-long and city investment barbell strategies had returns of 0.5% and 0.3% respectively [2][15] - The weekly average return of the city investment heavy bond portfolio increased to 0.2%, up by 9.1 basis points from the previous week, with the ultra-long city investment strategy showing significant recovery, achieving a weekly return of 0.5% [2][17] Group 2 - The report highlights that the cumulative excess returns of various credit strategies have shown divergence over the past four weeks, with the city investment barbell, duration, and short-end sinking strategies yielding cumulative excess returns of 23.1 basis points, 14.4 basis points, and -0.2 basis points respectively [4][31] - The financial bond strategies have not shown excess returns in the past month, with the secondary capital bond bullet-type and broker bond duration strategies both deviating negatively from the benchmark by over 10 basis points [4][31] - The ultra-long city investment strategy achieved an excess return of 18.7 basis points, while the industrial ultra-long and secondary ultra-long strategies underperformed their respective benchmarks [4][34]

1 风险提示：测算模型失效风险；重仓股补全与实际差异较大风险；基金持仓、久期大幅度偏离的风险。基金相关信息及数据仅作为基金研究 使用，不作为募集材料或者宣传材料；本文涉及所有基金历史业绩均不代表未来表现 2 • 本周（2025/06/09-2025/ 06/13，下同），沪深300下跌0.25%，主动股票及偏股混合基金整体测算股票仓位上升0.16%，至84.90%。 • 本周主动股票及偏股混合型基金前5大行业：电子（13.97%）、电力设备（9.12%）、医药生物（6.89%）、汽车（6.52%）、机械设备（5.75%）。 • 加仓前3大行业：石油石化(+0.28%）、有色金属(+0.22%）、轻工制造(+0.10%）；减仓前3大行业：电子(-0.21%）、食品饮料(-0.15%）、机械设备(- 0.09%）。 • 本周中债10年期国开债到期收益率上行1bps，中长期纯债整体测算久期中位数上升0.37，至3.35年，位于近5年的100.00%分位数。近4周平均久期 中位数为3.01年；本周久期分歧度有所上升，测算久期标准差上升0.17，至1.78年。短期纯债久期中位数上升0.06，至0.95年。 • 信用债基 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in sectors such as AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, indicating a rising risk appetite among investors [2][9]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has shown significant improvement in risk appetite, with notable performance in sectors like AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, leading to increased investor interest, especially in small and mid-cap stocks [2][9]. - The report suggests active participation in A+H shares due to observed discount phenomena in IPOs, with a focus on new consumption and manufacturing sectors [2][9]. - There is a sustained bullish outlook on virtual assets and the Web 3.0 market, driven by stablecoin policies and IPOs, with expectations for more regulatory developments in the future [2][9]. - The valuation of overseas Chinese assets remains influenced by US-China trade relations and the broader economic environment, highlighting the need to monitor changes in US tariff policies and domestic economic strategies [2][9]. Industry Tracking Summary 1. Education - The education index decreased by 0.98% from June 9 to June 13, underperforming compared to major indices, with 51talk rising by 12.09% and Thinking Education falling by 11.55% [10][14]. 2. Luxury Goods - The luxury goods sector faced slight pressure, with key stocks like Prada declining by 6.01% while new brands like Shiseido rose by 2.02% during the same period [18][21]. 3. Coffee and Tea - The sector showed stable growth, with individual stocks like Luckin Coffee increasing by 1.87%, while others like Bawang Tea experienced declines [23][27]. 4. E-commerce - The e-commerce sector saw a slight decline, with major players like Alibaba and JD.com facing competitive pressures, while the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index rose by 3.46% [29][34]. 5. Streaming Platforms - The streaming sector outperformed, with Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music showing significant gains, while Netflix experienced a decline [35][38]. 6. Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 5.9%, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices showing slight fluctuations, indicating ongoing interest in virtual assets [42][43].

子行业周度核心观点： 风电：菲律宾 3.3GW 海风项目招标,要求 2028-2030 年完成项目交付，开发周期远短于正常海外海风项目，看好国内 交付能力更强的国内风机、基础、海缆企业获取相关订单；文船重工宣布完成第一批 Inch Cape 单桩生产，项目基础、 海缆交付有望逐步启动，建议关注下半年东缆等企业订单确收情况；国电投 2.5GW 陆风机组集采开标，5.XMW 机型投 标均价环比 3 月集采开标上涨 17%，继续推荐下半年盈利有望趋势性改善的整机环节。 锂电：复合集流体产业化靠近，全固态电池产业化持续迈进。铜价的持续提升推升铜箔在电池的成本占比，已经成为 未来电池材料的最大降本环节，我们坚定看好复合铜箔产业化 0-1，预计 Q3 有望最快看到复合铜箔的落地，重视电池 大赛道的格局重塑机会；6-8 月预计有行业全固态电池产品送样测试的产业催化，今年主要的电池企业、主机企业预 计推动中试线的落地，重点关注增量环节干法电极设备、锂金属负极、硫化物电解质等。 本周重要行业事件： 光储风：菲律宾 3.3GW 海风项目招标；国电投陆风机组开标价格继续走强；上海 SNEC 展期间多家企业发布叠层及常 规光伏电池/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - As of June 13, the weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.35 years and 2.98 years respectively, both at over 90% quantile levels since March 2021. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading terms of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 3.90 years, 3.70 years, and 2.03 years respectively, with general commercial financial bonds at a relatively low historical level. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.64 years, 2.05 years, 3.56 years, and 1.62 years respectively, with securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds at relatively low historical quantiles and leasing company bonds at a relatively high historical quantile [2][10]. - The coupon duration congestion index declined after reaching its peak in March 2024 and then slightly increased this week, currently at the 53.10% level since March 2021 [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Full - variety Term Overview - The weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 2.35 years, 2.98 years, 3.90 years, 3.70 years, and 2.03 years respectively. The durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.64 years, 2.05 years, 3.56 years, and 1.62 years respectively [2][10]. - The coupon duration congestion index is currently at the 53.10% level since March 2021 [13]. 2. Variety Microscope Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average trading term of urban investment bonds hovered around 2.35 years. The duration of Shaanxi provincial urban investment bonds exceeded 6 years, while that of Hebei provincial urban investment bonds shortened to around 0.81 years. The historical quantiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as Jiangsu district - level, Zhejiang prefecture - level, Chongqing district - level, Guangdong prefecture - level, Fujian district - level, Sichuan provincial, and Henan prefecture - level have exceeded 90%. The durations of urban investment bonds in Anhui prefecture - level, Zhejiang prefecture - level, and Guangdong prefecture - level are approaching the highest since 2021 [3][17]. Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading term of industrial bonds shortened slightly compared to last week, generally around 2.98 years. The trading duration of the food and beverage industry shortened significantly to 1.28 years, while that of the public utilities industry lengthened to 3.35 years. The trading duration of the food and beverage industry is at a relatively low historical quantile, while those of public utilities, transportation, commerce and retail, non - ferrous metals and other industries are all at over 90% historical quantiles [3][21]. Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of securities subordinated bonds shortened to 2.05 years, at the 45% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds lengthened to 3.90 years, at the 78.6% historical quantile, lower than the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds shortened to 3.70 years, at the 66.8% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year [3][23]. Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading term, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at the 79.3%, 45%, 50.4%, and 95.9% historical quantiles respectively. The durations of securities company bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds lengthened slightly compared to last week [4][26].

牧业： 截至 6 月 14 日，我国主产省集贸市场活牛价格 26.71 元/公斤，环比-0.01%，目前为动物蛋白消费淡季，牛肉价格保 持震荡状态；奶牛方面截至 6 月 5 日主产区合同内外平均收购价为 3.05 元/公斤，环比-0.3%，同比-8.1%，奶价下跌 幅度持续放缓，散奶方面近期维持在 2.5-2.6 元/公斤。我们预计随着供给端产能去化的逐步传导，原奶价格在 25H2 有望企稳回升，目前原奶价格依旧低迷，随着青贮季到来，预计行业去产能有望加速；肉牛方面近期犊牛与活牛价格 已经上涨，预计新一轮肉牛周期有望开启，板块景气度有望拐点向上。 投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.06.09-2025.06.13）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2725.63 点(周环比+1.62%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 3864.18 点（周环比-0.25%），深证综指收于 2001.06 点（周环比-0.33%），上证综指收于 3377.00 点（周环比-0.25%），科 创板收于 972.94 点（周环比-1.89%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑赢上证综指。从一级行业涨跌幅来看，本周排名前三的为 有色金属（周环比+3.79 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests that ROBO+ represents the strongest industrial trend in the automotive sector, with a focus on intelligent driving and humanoid robots as key directions for growth [4]. Core Insights - Tesla's Robotaxi service is set to trial in Austin, Texas, with a limited fleet of 10 to 20 Model Y vehicles equipped with new "unsupervised" FSD technology, marking a strategic shift towards autonomous driving and mobility services [9][10]. - XPeng's G7 SUV features advanced AI capabilities with three self-developed Turing AI chips, achieving over 2200 TOPS of computing power, significantly higher than the industry average [10][11]. - The establishment of the world's first embodied intelligent robot 4S store in Beijing is expected to enhance the integration of sales, parts supply, after-sales service, and feedback mechanisms in the robotics industry [18]. Summary by Sections Intelligent Driving - Tesla's Robotaxi service is a pivotal move towards commercializing autonomous driving, indicating a shift in valuation logic for the company [9]. - XPeng's G7 showcases a significant leap in AI automotive technology, emphasizing the importance of self-developed chips for competitive advantage [10][11]. - Partnerships in the automotive sector, such as GAC Toyota's collaboration with Momenta, aim to integrate advanced AI technologies into vehicle safety and driving behavior [12][13]. Robotics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated pilot applications for elderly care robots, deploying over 220 units across various settings to enhance service capabilities [17][22]. - The global first embodied intelligent robot 4S store in Beijing is set to open in 2025, with significant interest from over 100 companies, indicating a robust market for humanoid robots [18]. - Companies like McD Tech and Star Era are actively pursuing commercialization in the robotics sector, with new products and strategic partnerships aimed at enhancing service capabilities [25][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the explosive growth potential in high-level autonomous driving and humanoid robots, suggesting a focus on key players in the chip, lidar, and optical components sectors [4][45]. - Companies such as Horizon Robotics and leading lidar manufacturers are highlighted as critical players to watch in the evolving landscape of intelligent driving [45][46].