证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 29 年 月 日 通信 头部厂商稀缺，龙头在缺货情况下更具优势。目前光器件市场中，国际 厂商主要供应商如 Broadcom、Ciena 和 Lumentum 等占据了高规格光 芯片的主要市场，且其技术规格仍在不断提升中，国内厂商需具备技 术先发优势等抢占市场份额。以 EML 与 CW 芯片为例，EML 目前仅有 几家头部厂商如光迅科技等拥有 100G EML 芯片制造能力，CW 大功率 光源也仅有源杰科技、仕佳光子等少数厂商布局。当相关器件严重缺 货时，这些头部企业将具有显著竞争优势。 AI 算力的钟摆：轮回与节奏 事件：本周英伟达股价创历史新高，市值再成全球第一。截至周五收盘 股价达 157.8 美元，周涨幅达 9.7%，市值逼近 3.85 万亿美元；同时 带动国内算力板块上涨，其中新易盛、中际旭创本周涨幅分别为 12%、 6.9%。我们认为，资本市场再次聚焦 AI，不仅是对英伟达的看好，更 是对算力产业长期前景的再次投票。 【AI 产业实质：长周期技术革命而非"主题炒作"】 今年以来，AI 对于各企业的作用已愈发清晰。无论是用户数、AI ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The demand for pre-training and inference remains strong, with significant updates expected for top models like GPT-5 and Grok 4, which are anticipated to enhance capabilities in natural language processing and coding [1][11] - The rapid advancement in coding applications is evident, with companies like Cursor achieving a valuation of $9.9 billion and an annual recurring revenue (ARR) exceeding $500 million, reflecting a 60% increase in just two months [2][19] - The launch of Ant Group's AI health application AQ marks a significant step in the application of AI in healthcare, providing over 100 services and connecting with numerous hospitals and doctors [3][28] Summary by Sections Pre-training and Inference Demand - OpenAI's CEO announced the potential release of GPT-5, which will integrate features from previous models to create a more powerful system [1][11] - Grok 4 is set to be released soon, focusing on programming capabilities [1][11] - The training data and computational power for models like Qwen3 have significantly increased, with Qwen3 utilizing approximately 36 trillion tokens, nearly double that of its predecessor [1][13][14] Coding Applications and Market Growth - Cursor's rapid commercialization has led to a valuation increase to $9.9 billion, with an ARR surpassing $500 million, indicating a strong market demand for AI programming tools [2][19] - The adoption rate of AI in U.S. enterprises is projected to reach 9.2% by May 2025, up from 7.4% in Q4 2024 [2][20] AI in Healthcare - Ant Group's AQ application offers extensive health management services and has been recognized for its advanced AI capabilities, including multi-modal interactions [3][28][29] - The application has been developed using over one trillion tokens of medical data, achieving high standards in safety and privacy assessments [3][29] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in computing power, including Cambricon, Alibaba, and others, as they are expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI applications [4][31]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [5][7]. Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the historical peak in Q4 2021, and the market is well aware of the price decline. The industry is at a critical stage of price bottoming, and the bottom may not be far off. It is essential to grasp the intrinsic attributes of the industry and maintain confidence and determination [3]. - Domestic coal companies are increasingly facing losses, with over half (54.8%) of coal enterprises reporting losses as of March 2025. This situation may lead to a higher probability of both passive and active production cuts as prices continue to decline [3]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a rebound in coal prices due to the high costs of overseas coal mines, which may lead to reduced imports and a subsequent increase in domestic coal prices [3]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The European coal market is experiencing a price decline, with ARA port coal prices at $103.4 per ton, down $3.7 per ton (-3.4%) from the previous week. Newcastle port coal prices are at $106.5 per ton, down $0.1 per ton (-0.1%) [1][3]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions on natural gas prices, which have led to a simultaneous increase in coal and natural gas prices in Europe by 7-9% [6][3]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends key coal enterprises such as China Shenhua (H+A), China Coal Energy (H+A), and China Qinfa, which is expected to reverse its current difficulties. Other recommended companies include Xinjie Energy, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, which are expected to perform well [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The beer and beverage sector is entering a peak season, with a focus on channel changes and growth opportunities. The report highlights three main investment lines for the liquor segment: leading brands, high-certainty regional brands, and elastic stocks benefiting from recovery and increased risk appetite [1][2]. - The white liquor industry is gradually bottoming out, with leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye showing low valuations and dividend value. The report emphasizes the importance of adapting to younger consumer preferences and enhancing brand quality [2]. - The beverage segment is characterized by high growth potential, with companies like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer being highlighted for their strong performance. The report also notes the introduction of new products by Xiangpiaopiao and the competitive landscape in the beverage market [3][6]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - Demand-side strategies focus on solidifying sales foundations, with companies actively managing supply and pricing to maintain strong sales [2]. - Supply-side initiatives include marketing transformations and product innovations aimed at younger consumers, such as low-alcohol and flavored products [2]. - The report indicates that the valuation of white liquor stocks has reached low levels, with current PE ratios around 17.7x, which is approximately 10% lower than the A-share market [2]. Beer and Beverage - The report notes the resignation of the chairman of China Resources Beer, which may present a buying opportunity post-adjustment [3][6]. - The beverage sector is experiencing intense competition, with new product launches and a focus on high-growth potential companies [6][7]. - The report highlights the ongoing transformation in retail, with companies like Sam's Club and Walmart leading in sales growth, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [7].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 29 年 月 日 银行 本周聚焦—短暂回调后，银行股怎么看？ 一、短暂回调后，银行股怎么看？ 结合银行业历史数据来看，银行业绩波动较小，利润基本保持稳定正增长， 从中长期视角来看，具备较高的配置价值。2024 年上市银行利润增速达 2.35%，展望今年，我们认为银行业绩仍有望保持稳定正增长，主要的业 绩支撑因素在于： 1）自营债券端积累大发的浮盈：以 2024 年数据来看，上市银行 OCI 浮 盈/利润比例达到 17.8%，部分银行达到一半以上，如沪农商行（OCI 浮盈 /利润比例 63.6%，下同）、浙商银行（58%）、青岛银行（52.1%）、齐鲁 银行（51.6%）、宁波银行（51%）等。考虑到银行以 AC 账户投资的债券 占总资产的比重更高（2024 年末上市银行 AC、OCI 账户的金融资产在总 资产中的比重分别为 17.9%、8.2%），预计 AC 账户积累的浮盈更为丰厚。 银行可以把握时机、适度地处置一些金融资产，从而对自身的业绩起到一 定的支撑作用。以 2024 年数据来看，上市银行处置 AC 及 OCI 账户的金 融资产收入 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The report indicates that the economic and asset outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests significant external demand pressure and continued weak internal demand, with GDP growth expected to be around 5.2% in the first half and potentially dropping to 4.7% in the second half, maintaining a "保 5%" (ensure 5%) target [3] - The focus of policies in the second half is expected to shift towards stabilizing employment, ensuring livelihoods, stabilizing consumption, real estate, and markets, rather than strong stimulus measures [3] Group 2: Jiangxi Province Economic and Debt Analysis - Jiangxi Province is noted as the only province in China with zero bond defaults, with a GDP of 34,202.50 billion yuan in 2024, ranking 15th nationally, and a GDP growth rate of 5.1%, ranking 18th [5] - The province's general public budget revenue for 2024 is projected at 3,066.6 billion yuan, with government fund revenue at 1,813.9 billion yuan, ranking 17th and 14th respectively in the country [5] - Jiangxi's fiscal self-sufficiency rate stands at 40%, placing it 18th nationally, indicating a moderate fiscal capacity [5] - The report highlights that Jiangxi's debt pressure is relatively high when considering local government financing vehicles and local debts, despite being in the middle range for narrow debt and overall debt pressure [5] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Robotics - Zhejiang Rongtai plans to acquire at least 15% of Jinli Transmission, with an overall valuation of 2 billion yuan, marking a strategic move into the robotics sector [6][8] - Jinli Transmission specializes in micro transmission systems, providing a competitive edge in the production of precision components, which aligns with Zhejiang Rongtai's strategy to enhance its capabilities in intelligent transmission and humanoid robotics [8] - The projected net profit for Zhejiang Rongtai from 2025 to 2027 is expected to grow significantly, with estimates of 3.27 billion yuan, 4.65 billion yuan, and 6.37 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 42%, 42%, and 37% respectively [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Jiangxi's economic and fiscal levels are in the middle in China, with a debt ratio in the upper - middle range. The province has achieved remarkable results in debt reduction and transformation, and its industrial transformation has initially shown results. The integration of industries through the transfer from developed regions will become an important growth point for Jiangxi's economy [1][2][4] - The overall debt pressure in Jiangxi is controllable, but there are differences in the fundamentals and debt pressures among cities. When choosing bonds, it is necessary to consider different risk preferences and bond maturities [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 江西省经济财政债务一览 3.1.1 江西区位概览 - Jiangxi is located in the southeast inland of China, on the south bank of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. It is adjacent to Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Hunan, Hubei, and Anhui. It is the hinterland of the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Minnan Triangle. It has convenient transportation with well - developed highways, railways, aviation, and waterways [11] 3.1.2 江西经济财政情况 - In 2024, Jiangxi's GDP was 3420.25 billion yuan, ranking 15th in China, with a GDP growth rate of 5.1%, ranking 18th. The per - capita GDP was 76,000 yuan, ranking 18th. The "14th Five - Year Plan" aims for an average annual GDP growth of about 7% [13] - In 2024, Jiangxi's general public budget revenue was 306.66 billion yuan, and the government - funded revenue was 181.39 billion yuan, ranking 17th and 14th respectively. The land - finance dependence was 37%, ranking 8th. The fiscal self - sufficiency rate was 40%, ranking 18th, and the tax revenue accounted for 64%, ranking 21st [17][19] 3.1.3 江西债务情况 - Considering narrow - sense hidden debts and local debts, Jiangxi's broad - caliber debt pressure is in the middle in China. Considering urban investment interest - bearing debts and local debts, Jiangxi's debt pressure is relatively high. In 2024, the interest - bearing debt scale of bond - issuing urban investment in Jiangxi was about 2.3 trillion yuan, ranking 9th in China [22] - The narrow - caliber debt ratio in 2024 was 139%, ranking 20th; the broad - caliber debt ratio was 288%, ranking 9th; the narrow - caliber debt - to - GDP ratio was 54%, ranking 17th; the broad - caliber debt - to - GDP ratio was 111%, ranking 6th [22] 3.2 江西省化债成果 - In 2024, Jiangxi improved the "1 + 9" implementation plan for preventing and resolving local debt risks, achieving a double decline in the number of financing platforms and the stock of operating financial debts, and completely eliminating high - risk debts, maintaining the status of the only province with zero bond defaults in China [2] - Since debt reduction in 2023, the growth of Jiangxi's urban investment debt has significantly declined. In 2024, the year - on - year growth was no more than 1%, lower than the national average [2] - In 2024, many places in Jiangxi achieved remarkable results in hidden debt reduction. For example, Jingdezhen completed the task of exiting financing platforms and eliminating hidden debts; Shangrao obtained 14.323 billion yuan of local government debt limits for replacing hidden debts; Ganzhou achieved a "double decline" in the number of financing platforms and debt scale; Yichun obtained over 26.2 billion yuan of debt - reduction policy quotas and reduced government investment project funds by 7.363 billion yuan [25] - In 2024, the proportion of bank loans, bonds, and non - standard debts in Jiangxi's urban investment debt was 56.2%, 31.5%, and 12.3% respectively. Compared with 2023, the financing structure was further optimized [25] 3.3 中部资源型省份——江西省产业结构分析 - Jiangxi is an important non - ferrous metal resource province. Non - ferrous metals, electronic information, and equipment manufacturing are important pillars of the industrial structure. The province has rich non - ferrous metal resources, and the electronic information and equipment manufacturing industries have also developed rapidly [29] - In 2023, Jiangxi launched the "1269" action plan for the modernization of the manufacturing industry, aiming to comprehensively improve the modernization level of 12 key manufacturing industrial chains, build 6 advanced manufacturing clusters, and achieve an average annual growth of about 9% in the operating income of industrial enterprises above the designated size [31] - Each prefecture - level city has clarified the development direction of key industries according to the "1269" action plan and local resource endowments [36] - The industrial transformation in Jiangxi has initially shown results. In 2024, the added value of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increased by 12.5% and 13.1% respectively. The digital economy added - value is expected to exceed 1.3 trillion yuan. However, there is still a gap compared with developed regions [4] 3.4 区域实力对比——经济、财政、债务分析 - In terms of economic aggregate in 2024, Nanchang had the highest GDP of 780 billion yuan, followed by Ganzhou with 494 billion yuan. The GDP of Jiujiang, Shangrao, and Yichun was around 400 billion yuan, while the GDP of Fuzhou and Ji'an was between 200 - 300 billion yuan, and the GDP of Yingtan, Pingxiang, Jingdezhen, and Xinyu was between 100 - 140 billion yuan [49] - In terms of fiscal revenue, Nanchang had the highest general public budget revenue of 52.6 billion yuan. Jiujiang and Ganzhou had similar revenues. Some cities have a high degree of land - finance dependence, such as Jingdezhen and Pingxiang [49] - The old revolutionary base areas in southern Jiangxi have received more policy support. The "Opinions on Supporting the Revitalization and Development of Old Revolutionary Base Areas in the New Era" provides multi - aspect policy support for the industrial revitalization of Jiangxi's old revolutionary base areas [53][54] 3.5 区域增长潜力如何——人口、收入和房价情况 - In 2024, Jiangxi's permanent population was 45.0201 million, with a growth of 0.49% in the past decade. The net population outflow was 5.02 million in 2023. The per - capita disposable income of urban residents in 2024 was 47,514 yuan, lower than that of some neighboring provinces and the national average [45] - Jiangxi actively undertakes industrial transfer from developed regions. In 2023, it issued a plan to integrate into the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Haixi Economic Zone. Some cities have achieved initial results in industrial cooperation [48] 3.6 区域金融资源如何——存贷款余额、金融机构分析 - In 2024, Jiangxi's deposit and loan balances ranked 16th and 14th in China respectively, in the middle range. There are four local city - commercial banks and two guarantee institutions in the province [5] 3.7 区域债务对比——城投债余额、估值与择券分析 - As of June 9, the balance of urban investment bonds in Jiangxi was 702.9 billion yuan. The balance of provincial - level, Nanchang, Shangrao, and Ganzhou was about 100 billion yuan, and the balance of Jingdezhen, Yichun, and Jiujiang was between 45 - 50 billion yuan [7] - The overall debt pressure in Jiangxi is controllable, but there are differences among cities. It is recommended to focus on municipal platforms in the third - tier regions and strong district - county platforms for 2 - 3 - year bonds; for those with low risk preferences, focus on municipal platforms in the second - tier regions for 3 - 5 - year bonds; the over - 5 - year ultra - long - term bonds are mainly concentrated in provincial - level and Nanchang municipal platforms [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is strategically investing in the robotics sector by acquiring a stake in Jinli Transmission, which has an overall valuation of RMB 2 billion, aiming to hold at least 15% of the target company [1] - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in intelligent transmission and humanoid robotics, thereby strengthening its competitive advantage and profitability [1] - The company has a strong foundation in its core business, particularly in mica products, which are well-established and cater to top global automotive clients [2] - The company is projected to maintain high growth in its mica business, supported by increasing contributions from major clients like Volkswagen and Tesla [2] Financial Performance and Projections - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of RMB 327 million, RMB 465 million, and RMB 637 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 42%, 42%, and 37% [3] - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 800 million in 2023 to RMB 2.897 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 34.9% [4] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from RMB 0.47 in 2023 to RMB 1.75 in 2027 [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 95.2 in 2023 to 25.7 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [4] Strategic Developments - The company is making significant strides in the robotics sector through the acquisition of Diz Precision, which specializes in micro ball screws and has a strong R&D capability [2] - The strategic layout in the robotics field is becoming clearer, with initial sales to robotics companies already generating revenue [2] - The company is expected to benefit from its established technology and customer resources, which create a competitive moat in the mica market [2]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for major companies in the offshore wind sector, including 大金重工 and 明阳智能, while maintaining "Hold" for 东方电缆 and 天顺风能 [7] Core Insights - The offshore wind market is entering a growth cycle, particularly in Europe, with expected installations of 4.5GW and 8.4GW in 2025 and 2026 respectively, driven by favorable policies and declining material costs [1][11] - The demand for subsea cables is surging due to the high growth in offshore wind and electricity interconnection projects, with a projected CAGR of 27% for global offshore wind installations from 2024 to 2030 [2] - The European offshore wind foundation market is experiencing a price increase due to local capacity shortages, with prices for single piles expected to rise by 13% and 10% in 2023 and 2024 respectively [3] Summary by Sections Demand - Europe is set to see significant growth in offshore wind installations, with a total of 48.36GW expected from 2025 to 2030, primarily driven by the UK, Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands [14] - The European Union has updated its offshore wind capacity targets to 111GW by 2030 and 317GW by 2050, indicating strong policy support for the sector [16] Subsea Cables - The demand for subsea cables is expected to rise sharply due to the increasing need for offshore wind and electricity interconnection, with a capital expenditure plan of €400 billion by ENTSO-E for renewable integration by 2050 [2] Offshore Wind Foundations - The local production capacity for offshore wind foundations in Europe is expected to become tight around 2027, leading to price increases as demand outstrips supply [3] Wind Turbines - Chinese wind turbine manufacturers, such as 明阳智能, are entering the European market with a significant price advantage, being 19-24% cheaper than Western counterparts [3] - 明阳智能 has secured a 270MW project in Germany, showcasing its competitive edge in the European offshore wind market [3] Investment Recommendations - Companies like 东方电缆 and 中天科技 are well-positioned to benefit from the local capacity shortages in Europe, while 大金重工 is expected to see strong order fulfillment and performance [4]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights that GoerTek (002241.SZ) is positioned to benefit from the upcoming wave of AI and AR technologies, establishing itself as a leader in the optoelectronic sector with a focus on precision components, smart acoustic systems, and smart hardware [4] - GoerTek's revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 2.4% year-on-year to reach 100.95 billion yuan, with a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, expected to rise by 178.3% to 2.39 billion yuan [4] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 101.1 billion yuan, 115.1 billion yuan, and 130 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.3 billion yuan, 4.1 billion yuan, and 4.8 billion yuan [4] Group 2: Industry Performance - The report indicates that the non-bank financial sector has shown strong performance with a 43.9% increase over the past year, while the communication sector has also performed well with a 34.4% increase [1] - Conversely, the food and beverage industry has faced challenges, showing a decline of 0.6% over the past year, while the automotive sector has remained flat with a 32.1% increase [1] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the European offshore wind market, driven by increasing demand for subsea cables and a shortage of local production capacity [3]