重磅研报 【宏观】高频半月观—6 月延续"抢出口"，成色几何？——20250629 【宏观】5 月企业盈利再度转负的背后——20250627 【金融工程】沪深 300、深证成指、创业板指确认日线级别上涨—— 20250629 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周估值与拥挤度分数弱化—— 20250628 证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 杨然 2025 06 30 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 中钨高新（000657.SZ）-背靠五矿集团，全球领先的钨一体化巨 擘 今日概览 研究视点 【煤炭】地缘政治加剧天然气价格波动，欧洲煤炭市场再度补库催化煤 价——20250629 【纺织服饰】波司登（03998.HK）-FY2025 圆满收官，期待产品创新驱 动羽绒主业持续增长——20250627 作者 【固定收益】债市的季节性及其来源——20250629 【固定收益】财政的新特点与后手——20250629 【固定收益】央行呵护，资金平稳跨季——流动性和机构行为跟踪—— 20250628 【银行】短暂回调后，银行股怎么看？——20250629 【有色金属】中钨高新（000657.SZ）-背靠五矿集团，全球领先的 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 06 28 年 月 日 量化分析报告 择时雷达六面图：本周估值与拥挤度分数弱化 择时雷达六面图：基于多维视角的择时框架。权益市场的表现受到多维度 指标因素的共同影响，我们尝试从流动性、经济面、估值面、资金面、技 术面、拥挤度选取二十一个指标对市场进行刻画，并将其概括为"估值性 价比"、"宏观基本面"、"资金&趋势"、"拥挤度&反转"四大类，从而生成 [-1,1]之间的综合择时分数。 本周综合打分。本周市场的估值性价比下降，宏观基本面、资金&趋势分 数变化不大，拥挤度&反转分数下降显著，综合打分位于[-1,1]之间，当前 的综合打分为-0.10 分，整体为中性观点。当前六面图各个维度的观点如 下： 流动性。本周货币强度、信用强度发出看空信号，货币方向、信用方向 发出看多信号，当前流动性得分为 0.00 分，综合来看信号中性。 经济面。本周通胀方向与通胀强度指标发出看多信号，增长方向与增长 强度发出看空信号，当前经济面得分为 0.00 分，综合来看信号中性。 估值面。本周席勒 ERP、PB 与 AIAE 指标分数下降，当前市场的估值 面得分为-0.1 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 06 29 年 月 日 量化周报 沪深 300、深证成指、创业板指确认日线级别上涨 沪深 300、深证成指、创业板指确认日线级别上涨。本周（6.23-6.27）， 大盘震荡上行，上证指数全周收涨 1.91%。在此背景下，沪深 300、深证 成指、创业板指、中小 100、军工、电子、计算机纷纷确认日线级别上涨。 当下，我们认为市场再次回到 4 月 7 日低点的概率基本不存在了。由于上 证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、深证成指、创业板 指仍处于日线级别上涨中，且还有部分指数和板块没有确认日线上涨，因 此我们认为市场的日线级别上涨还要持续一段时间，后续市场有望继续上 涨。中期来看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成指、创 业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 1-3 浪 结构，中期牛市刚刚开始；此外，已有 21 个行业处于周线级别上涨中， 且 7 个行业周线上涨只走了 1 浪结构，因此我们认为本轮牛市刚刚开始， 而且还是个普涨格局。中期对于投资者而言，仍然可以逆势布局。 A ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Anta Sports, Xtep International, and Bosideng [4][12][33]. Core Insights - Nike's FY2025Q4 revenue decreased by 12% year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 86% due to increased discounts and marketing expenses [1][16]. - The company is focusing on inventory reduction, expecting to normalize inventory levels by the end of FY2026H1 [2][21]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the sportswear sector, predicting a recovery in performance and valuation in 2025, driven by outdoor and running demand [7][29]. Summary by Sections Nike's Performance - Nike's FY2025Q4 revenue was $11.1 billion, with a 12% year-on-year decline; direct sales fell by 14% and wholesale by 9% [1][16]. - The gross margin decreased by 4.4 percentage points to 40.3%, while SG&A expenses rose by 5 percentage points to 37.4% [1][16]. - For FY2025, Nike's total revenue was $46.3 billion, down 9% year-on-year, and net profit fell 44% to $3.2 billion [1][16]. Inventory Management - As of May 2025, Nike's inventory remained high at $7.5 billion, but the company is implementing various strategies to reduce it [2][21]. - The report notes that all major regions are actively working on inventory reduction, with strong sales in running and training categories [3][24]. Regional Performance - North America: FY2025Q4 revenue decreased by 11%, with significant progress in inventory reduction despite challenges from new supply and tariffs [28]. - EMEA: Revenue fell by 10%, but inventory levels remained stable, with running and training categories showing growth [28]. - Greater China: Revenue dropped by 20%, with a focus on deep inventory clearance through discounts [28]. - APLA: Revenue decreased by 3%, with a shift towards full-price sales in e-commerce [28]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and quality brands, anticipating performance recovery and valuation increases in 2025 [7][29]. - Key companies highlighted include Anta Sports, Xtep International, and Bosideng, with respective PE ratios for 2025 of 18x, 11x, and 12x [12][33].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The C-REITs market is experiencing a correction in the existing market, while newly issued products have reached their upper limit in price increase [1][5] - The C-REITs total market capitalization is approximately 206.07 billion, with an average market value of about 3 billion per REIT [3][12] - The C-REITs total return index has increased by 14.59% year-to-date, ranking second among various indices [2][10] REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index fell by 1.38% this week, closing at 1109.1 points, while the CSI REITs closing index decreased by 1.46%, closing at 880.9 points [1][10] - Year-to-date performance shows the CSI REITs total return index up by 14.59%, while the CSI REITs closing index is up by 11.57% [2][10] REITs Secondary Market Performance - The secondary market for C-REITs saw a decline this week, with 8 REITs rising and 60 falling, resulting in an average weekly decline of 0.86% [3][12] - The sectors with the smallest declines include energy infrastructure and ecological environmental REITs, while warehousing logistics and consumer infrastructure REITs led the decline [3][12] REITs Trading Activity - The municipal water conservancy sector exhibited the highest trading activity this week, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.8% across listed REITs [4] - The average daily trading volume for listed REITs was 1.795 million shares [4] REITs Valuation Performance - The report indicates that the internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs is relatively low, with some REITs like the ICBC Mengneng Clean Energy REIT showing an IRR of -2.3% [5] - The price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) ratio for listed REITs ranges from 0.7 to 1.9, with the lowest being the China Communications Construction REIT at 0.7 [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [4][3] Core Views - The "136 Document" catalyzes rapid growth in new energy this year, with accelerated electricity market reforms and the southern regional market starting continuous settlement, leading to more flexible electricity pricing reflecting supply and demand changes [3][10] - The cumulative installed capacity of solar power reached 1.08 billion kilowatts by the end of May, with a year-on-year increase of 56.9%, while the share of thermal power generation capacity decreased to approximately 40% [15][67] - The southern regional electricity market officially transitioned to continuous settlement, allowing for daily trading and better reflection of supply-demand dynamics [15][10] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of the end of May, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18.8% [15][67] - In the first five months of the year, solar power added 197.85 GW of new capacity, a year-on-year increase of 149.97%, while wind power added 46.28 GW, a year-on-year increase of 134.21% [15][67] Market Dynamics - The average daily trading volume in the southern regional electricity market is expected to reach 3.8 billion kilowatt-hours after the transition to continuous settlement [15][10] - The coal price rebounded to 620 yuan per ton, impacting the thermal power sector [11][3] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Huaneng International, Jingtou Energy, Huadian International, Sheneng Co., and Baoneng New Energy, focusing on those with flexible quarterly performance [3][7] - Emphasis on undervalued green electricity operators, particularly in Hong Kong stocks and wind power operators, such as Xintian Green Energy and Zhongmin Energy [3][7] Carbon Market - The national carbon market trading price increased by 4.83% this week, with a total trading volume of 6.68 billion tons and a cumulative trading amount of 458.99 billion yuan [52][69]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 29 年 月 日 有色金属 需求淡季不淡，看好工业金属价格上行 黄金：地缘与关税担忧降温引发金价回调，长期牛市格局不改。近期由于地缘与关税的缓和， 黄金价格震荡整理，市场近期转向美联储降息交易。过去一周，由于美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼 的表态，市场对美联储降息预期一度上升。但紧随其后，包括美联储主席鲍威尔、纽约联储 主席威廉姆斯、旧金山联储主席戴利纷纷为降息预期降温。关税对通胀的实际影响仍有待观 察，7 月议息会议前，美国就业和通胀数据将提供重要依据。此外，市场也在关注美联储" 影 子主席人选"，特朗普偏好的更" 鸽派"的" 影子主席"会导致更激进的降息前景。影响黄金 走势的中短期因素多空交织，短期黄金或继续震荡整理。但中长期央行购金、美国高财政赤 字、美元走弱等趋势未变，黄金长期牛市格局不改。建议关注：紫金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰 黄金、银泰黄金、招金矿业等。 工业金属：（1）铜：库存结构性短缺，警惕逼仓风险。①宏观方面：地缘与关税边际缓和、 美联储部分官员释放降息信号，宏观对铜的压制近期有所缓解；②库存端：本周全球铜库存 50.3 万吨，环比-1 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 29 年 月 日 钢铁 黑色冶炼业盈利逐步修复 行情回顾（6.23-6.27）： 中信钢铁指数报收 1,537.19 点，上涨 2.14%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.19pct，位列 30 个 中信一级板块涨跌幅榜第 21 位。 重点领域分析： 投资策略：本周市场出现回升，金融及有色板块表现较好，黑色板块也有一定涨幅。据 国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 1-5 月黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业实现营业收入 31364.5 亿元，同比下降 7.0%；营业成本 29857.7 亿元，同比下降 8.7%；利润总额 316.9 亿 元，扭亏为盈。上一阶段上游黑色采掘业是产业链的强势所在，高价是解决高价的最好 办法，资本回报过高回归是周期的必然。而中游黑色冶炼业资本回报的长期低迷本身就 是供给调整的重要条件，周期问题一定是可以用时间解决的，没有一个周期是永远向下 的，这就是市场经济的力量，可以靠价格去调整供需。冶炼业供给端自身长时间调整是 促使今年利润回升的重要因素，历史上单纯依赖成本下降不能达到盈利回升的目的。此 前我们在深度报告中回顾工业化成熟期中 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 29 年 月 日 通信 头部厂商稀缺，龙头在缺货情况下更具优势。目前光器件市场中，国际 厂商主要供应商如 Broadcom、Ciena 和 Lumentum 等占据了高规格光 芯片的主要市场，且其技术规格仍在不断提升中，国内厂商需具备技 术先发优势等抢占市场份额。以 EML 与 CW 芯片为例，EML 目前仅有 几家头部厂商如光迅科技等拥有 100G EML 芯片制造能力，CW 大功率 光源也仅有源杰科技、仕佳光子等少数厂商布局。当相关器件严重缺 货时，这些头部企业将具有显著竞争优势。 AI 算力的钟摆：轮回与节奏 事件：本周英伟达股价创历史新高，市值再成全球第一。截至周五收盘 股价达 157.8 美元，周涨幅达 9.7%，市值逼近 3.85 万亿美元；同时 带动国内算力板块上涨，其中新易盛、中际旭创本周涨幅分别为 12%、 6.9%。我们认为，资本市场再次聚焦 AI，不仅是对英伟达的看好，更 是对算力产业长期前景的再次投票。 【AI 产业实质：长周期技术革命而非"主题炒作"】 今年以来，AI 对于各企业的作用已愈发清晰。无论是用户数、AI ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The demand for pre-training and inference remains strong, with significant updates expected for top models like GPT-5 and Grok 4, which are anticipated to enhance capabilities in natural language processing and coding [1][11] - The rapid advancement in coding applications is evident, with companies like Cursor achieving a valuation of $9.9 billion and an annual recurring revenue (ARR) exceeding $500 million, reflecting a 60% increase in just two months [2][19] - The launch of Ant Group's AI health application AQ marks a significant step in the application of AI in healthcare, providing over 100 services and connecting with numerous hospitals and doctors [3][28] Summary by Sections Pre-training and Inference Demand - OpenAI's CEO announced the potential release of GPT-5, which will integrate features from previous models to create a more powerful system [1][11] - Grok 4 is set to be released soon, focusing on programming capabilities [1][11] - The training data and computational power for models like Qwen3 have significantly increased, with Qwen3 utilizing approximately 36 trillion tokens, nearly double that of its predecessor [1][13][14] Coding Applications and Market Growth - Cursor's rapid commercialization has led to a valuation increase to $9.9 billion, with an ARR surpassing $500 million, indicating a strong market demand for AI programming tools [2][19] - The adoption rate of AI in U.S. enterprises is projected to reach 9.2% by May 2025, up from 7.4% in Q4 2024 [2][20] AI in Healthcare - Ant Group's AQ application offers extensive health management services and has been recognized for its advanced AI capabilities, including multi-modal interactions [3][28][29] - The application has been developed using over one trillion tokens of medical data, achieving high standards in safety and privacy assessments [3][29] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in computing power, including Cambricon, Alibaba, and others, as they are expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI applications [4][31]