Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights that GoerTek (002241.SZ) is positioned to benefit from the upcoming wave of AI and AR technologies, establishing itself as a leader in the optoelectronic sector with a focus on precision components, smart acoustic systems, and smart hardware [4] - GoerTek's revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 2.4% year-on-year to reach 100.95 billion yuan, with a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, expected to rise by 178.3% to 2.39 billion yuan [4] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 101.1 billion yuan, 115.1 billion yuan, and 130 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.3 billion yuan, 4.1 billion yuan, and 4.8 billion yuan [4] Group 2: Industry Performance - The report indicates that the non-bank financial sector has shown strong performance with a 43.9% increase over the past year, while the communication sector has also performed well with a 34.4% increase [1] - Conversely, the food and beverage industry has faced challenges, showing a decline of 0.6% over the past year, while the automotive sector has remained flat with a 32.1% increase [1] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the European offshore wind market, driven by increasing demand for subsea cables and a shortage of local production capacity [3]

Group 1: Macro Overview - The current overseas macro environment is significantly influenced by tariffs, with an emphasis on analyzing economic internal dynamics rather than solely predicting tariff outcomes [3] - Different scenarios regarding tariff impacts should be developed to create corresponding market response strategies, encapsulated in the phrase "hiding tools and waiting for the right moment" [3] Group 2: Blockchain and Stablecoins - Stablecoins are gaining attention for their advantages in payment scenarios, particularly in cross-border payments, with a competitive landscape emerging due to the non-homogeneous characteristics of different stablecoins [4] - The tokenization of US stocks and the integration of AI agents with stablecoin accounts are identified as key areas for application, potentially leading to a siphoning effect on global financial liquidity [4][5] Group 3: South American White Shrimp Industry - China is the largest consumer and producer of South American white shrimp, with Ecuador being the primary import source; the global farming growth rate from 2018 to 2022 was 7.94% [6] - In 2023, China's production reached 2.2384 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.66%, with per capita seafood consumption projected to rise, leading to a market potential of 143.5 billion by 2028 [6][7] - The price of South American white shrimp has shown significant cyclicality, with recent years experiencing price pressure due to increased production and imports [7][8] Group 4: Industry Trends in Shrimp Farming - The trend towards factory-based and intensive farming is noted, with advantages in yield, efficiency, and stability; regions like the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta are emerging as intensive farming areas [9] - The domestic breeding level is improving, with a projected 50% reduction in shrimp seed imports by 2025, supported by advancements in breeding technology [9] Group 5: Beverage Industry - IFBH - IFBH, a rapidly growing beverage company based in Thailand, dominates the coconut water market in China, holding a 34% market share in 2024, significantly outpacing its nearest competitor [11] - The company's revenue from coconut water reached $151 million in 2024, accounting for 95.6% of its total revenue [11] Group 6: Military and Machinery - Bai Ao Intelligent - Bai Ao Intelligent is positioned as a key player in the ammunition supply chain, focusing on the production of pyrotechnics, which are critical for ammunition performance [12][14] - The company has secured significant contracts, including an 819 million yuan order for pyrotechnic equipment, indicating strong market demand and growth potential [14][15]

Group 1: Macro Overview - The current overseas macro environment is significantly influenced by tariffs, but the evolution of tariffs is unpredictable. It is more important to analyze the internal economic dynamics and clarify what tariffs have changed and what they have not [3] - Different scenarios regarding tariff outcomes should be hypothesized to develop corresponding market strategies, emphasizing a proactive approach [3] Group 2: Blockchain and Stablecoins - Stablecoins are gaining attention for their advantages in payment scenarios, particularly in cross-border payments. The competition among different stablecoins is expected to be intense due to their non-homogeneous characteristics [4] - The tokenization of US stocks and the integration with AI agents are identified as key areas for application, which will have a significant impact on global financial liquidity [4][5] Group 3: South American White Shrimp Industry - China is the largest consumer and producer of South American white shrimp, with Ecuador being the primary import source. The global farming growth rate for this shrimp from 2018 to 2022 was 7.94%, with China's production reaching 2.2384 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 6.66% [6][7] - The per capita consumption of shrimp in China is expected to grow, with the market projected to reach 143.5 billion by 2028. In 2023, the per capita seafood consumption increased to 17.38 kg, with shrimp consumption around 3.18 million tons [6][7] - Ecuador's shrimp exports to China are significant, accounting for 42.88% of imports in 2023, with Ecuador alone contributing 75% of that [6][8] Group 4: Trends in Shrimp Farming - The shrimp price has shown significant cyclicality, with recent years experiencing downward pressure due to increased production and imports. The highest prices typically occur from January to April, while the lowest are from June to September [7] - The trend towards factory-based and intensive farming is evident, with advantages in yield, efficiency, and stability. Domestic breeding levels are improving, with a projected 50% reduction in shrimp seed imports by 2025 [9] Group 5: Beverage Industry - IFBH - IFBH, a rapidly growing beverage and food company based in Thailand, focuses on natural and healthy products, with coconut water accounting for 95.6% of its revenue in 2024, generating $151 million [11] - The company has maintained a leading market share in China's coconut water market for five consecutive years, with a market share of approximately 34% in 2024, significantly surpassing its nearest competitor [11] Group 6: Military and Machinery - Bai Ao Intelligent - Bai Ao Intelligent is positioned in the ammunition supply chain, focusing on the production of pyrotechnics, which are critical for ammunition performance. The company is expected to benefit from increased capital expenditure in this sector due to rising demand [12][14] - The company has achieved a breakthrough in pyrotechnics, securing a significant order worth 819 million for pyrotechnic equipment in 2024, indicating strong growth potential in the military sector [14][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 12.36 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35%, driven by higher sales prices and increased sales volume of aluminum alloy products, along with a decrease in electricity prices [1]. - The significant growth in profits is attributed to the increase in aluminum prices and a substantial decrease in electricity costs [1]. - The company is accelerating the transfer of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, having shut down a 721,000-ton production line and replacing it with new capacity [2]. - The company is positioned for significant growth through overseas expansion and deep integration with upstream and downstream partners, while also benefiting from a notable undervaluation as a Hong Kong-listed stock [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to be 150.949 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.3% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 21.676 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of -3.1% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.33 yuan in 2025 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 6.8 times in 2025, decreasing to 5.9 times by 2027 [4].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The South American white shrimp industry is experiencing rapid growth, with China being the largest farming and consuming country. The global compound growth rate from 2018 to 2022 reached 7.94%, with China's production in 2023 at 2.2384 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.66% [1][13][19] - The demand for shrimp is increasing, with per capita consumption expected to reach a market size of 143.5 billion yuan by 2028. In 2023, China's shrimp consumption was approximately 3.18 million tons, driven by rising income levels and urbanization [1][19][30] - Ecuador is the primary source of shrimp imports for China, accounting for 42.88% of total production in 2023, with Ecuador contributing over 75% of the imports [1][30] Summary by Sections Supply - The global South American white shrimp farming is growing rapidly, with China and Ecuador as the main producers. In 2023, China's production reached 2.2384 million tons, up 6.66% year-on-year, while Ecuador's production in 2022 was 1.1109 million tons, up 24.49% [1][13][19] Demand - Per capita seafood consumption in China is increasing, with urban residents consuming an average of 17.38 kg in 2023. The shrimp market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size of 143.5 billion yuan by 2028 [18][19] Imports - In 2023, shrimp imports accounted for 42.88% of total production in China, with Ecuador being the largest supplier, contributing 75% of the imports [1][30] Price Trends - Shrimp prices have been under pressure in recent years due to increased production and import impacts. The domestic shrimp price is expected to decline further in 2023 and 2024, with a decrease of 11.7% and 8.82% respectively [2][39][45] Industry Trends - The industry is moving towards factory-based and intensive farming methods, which are expected to enhance productivity and efficiency. The domestic breeding level is improving, with a projected 50% reduction in shrimp seed imports by 2025 [4][63][71] Investment Recommendations - Despite recent price pressures, the long-term outlook for the shrimp industry remains positive, particularly for leading companies in seed and feed production, such as Haida Group [4][71]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4]. Core Viewpoints - The military ammunition supply chain is expected to experience unprecedented growth opportunities, particularly in the context of the global geopolitical landscape and China's military development goals by 2027 [1][15]. - The company, Baiao Intelligent, is positioned as a key player in the ammunition supply chain, focusing on the manufacturing of smart equipment for explosive products, which are critical for military operations [1][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Baiao Intelligent specializes in the manufacturing of smart equipment for explosive products, which are essential components in the ammunition supply chain [1][3]. - The company has secured a significant order worth 819 million yuan for explosive products in 2024, indicating a breakthrough in its business operations [3][4]. Market Opportunity - The demand for explosive products is expected to surge due to increased military spending and the need for ammunition replenishment, particularly highlighted by the ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war [2][15]. - The report notes that the average daily consumption of artillery shells during peak conflict periods reached 50,000 rounds, emphasizing the urgent need for production capacity in the explosive products sector [2]. Competitive Advantages - The barriers to entry in the smart equipment manufacturing for explosive products are notably high due to the complex and hazardous nature of the production processes, which require stringent safety and precision controls [2][20]. - Baiao Intelligent's leadership team has extensive experience in engineering and a strong understanding of customer needs, enhancing the company's competitive edge [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 131 million yuan in 2025, with significant growth expected in subsequent years, reaching 250 million yuan by 2027 [4][5]. - Revenue is anticipated to grow from 466 million yuan in 2024 to 1.791 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [5][12]. Industry Trends - The report highlights a shift towards automation and smart manufacturing in the explosive products sector, driven by safety concerns and the need for efficiency [20][22]. - The "black factory" initiative aims to enhance safety and productivity by minimizing human intervention in hazardous operations, which is crucial for the explosive products industry [20][22].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the stock, indicating an expected relative performance exceeding 15% compared to the benchmark index over the next six months [87]. Core Insights - IFBH is a leading player in the coconut water beverage market, with a strong presence in both mainland China and Hong Kong, holding significant market shares of approximately 34% and 60% respectively in 2024 [9][69]. - The company has demonstrated rapid revenue growth, with projected revenues of $15,764.8 million in 2024, reflecting an 80.3% year-on-year increase [6][27]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 34.7% in 2023 to 36.7% in 2024, while the net profit margin is projected to rise from 19.2% to 21.1% in the same period [31][35]. Company Overview - IFBH is rooted in Thailand and has expanded its operations to over 11 countries, focusing on natural and healthy beverage options [9][19]. - The company operates a light-asset model, relying on third-party manufacturers and distributors, which enhances operational efficiency and scalability [48]. - The management team is experienced, with the founder Pongsakorn Pongsak having over a decade of experience in the food and beverage distribution industry [19][20]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of $8,744.2 million in 2023, with a projected increase to $15,764.8 million in 2024, marking an 80.3% growth [6][27]. - Net profit is expected to rise from $1,675.4 million in 2023 to $3,331.6 million in 2024, representing a 98.9% increase [25][27]. - The company’s revenue from coconut water is projected to account for 95.6% of total revenue in 2024, highlighting its dominance in this product category [38]. Business Performance - Coconut water is the primary revenue driver, with sales expected to grow from $8,201.2 million in 2023 to $15,064.2 million in 2024 [38]. - The company has a strong distribution network, with an increase in active distributors from 36 in 2023 to 43 in 2024 [56]. - The majority of revenue is generated from mainland China, which accounted for 92.4% of total revenue in 2024 [41]. Industry Outlook - The global coconut water market is projected to grow from $2.517 billion in 2019 to $4.989 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 14.67% [64]. - The Greater China region is expected to see significant growth, with the market size increasing from $102 million in 2019 to $1.093 billion in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 60.77% [69]. - The coconut water market in Hong Kong is also expanding, with a projected growth from $30.7 million in 2019 to $44.6 million in 2024 [70].

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 06 24 年 月 日 食品饮料 保健品 618 点评：健康消费风起，细分赛道亮眼 保健品 618 概览：营养保健维持高速增长，即时零售等新兴渠道表现亮 眼。根据星图数据，2025 年 618 期间（5 月 13 日-6 月 18 日）全网营养 保健销售总额 143 亿元，较 2024 年 618 期间（天猫 5 月 20 日 20:00-6 月 18 日 23:59；京东 5 月 31 日 20:00-6 月 18 日 23:59；其他平台以各 平台公布 618 起始时间截止至 6 月 18 日 23:59）全网营养保健销售总额 92 亿元增长约 55%。即时零售等渠道亦成功入局，美团于 5 月下旬加入 618 活动，美团自营大药房数据显示滋补保健品订单量同比增长超 2 倍， 表现亮眼。我们认为在健康消费浪潮下，营养保健品类增速仍将保持高速 增长，电商、新零售等渠道或给予更多品牌入局机遇。 分品类：传统品类稳步扩容，抗老、护肝等高成长。根据京东买药数据， 2025 年"京东买药 618 免单"活动会场成交额靠前的品类包括婴童营养 品（维矿/DH ...

【策略】中观数据与盈利预测指向哪些行业景气？——20250623 【固定收益】高频工业品价格底部反弹——基本面高频数据跟踪—— 20250623 ◼ 研究视点 【环保】监测门槛抬高，科创板专层赋能——20250623 证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2025 06 24 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 中观数据与盈利预测指向哪些行业景气？ 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 作者 | 分析师 杨义韬 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0680522080002 | | | | | 邮箱：yangyitao@gszq.com | | | | | 行业表现前五名 | | | | | 行业 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 1 年 | | 通信 | 7.9% | 0.3% | 28.0% | | 银行 | 6.0% | 11.2% | 33.4% | | 石油石化 | 4.9% | 2.6% | -2.0% | | 传媒 | 4.6% | 0.2% | 42.6% | | 国防军工 | 3.5% | 0.8% | 25.9% | | 行业表现后五名 | | | | | ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 23 年 月 日 环保 监测门槛抬高，科创板专层赋能 环保监测准入趋严，科创板扩容助力，龙头享机遇。1、近日，国家市场监 管总局认可检测司与生态环境部生态环境监测司联合修订并对外发布《检 验检测机构资质认定生态环境监测机构评审补充要求（修订草案）》，环 境监测准入标准升级，新增 1 条、修订 19 条条款，严格人员资质、设备 防篡改及场所管理，抬高准入门槛以遏制数据造假与恶性竞争。政策促进 行业格局优化，头部企业受益，监测服务价格有望修复，推动行业向高质 量发展转型，利好碳监测等高端需求。建议关注聚光科技、雪迪龙、碧水 源等企业。2、近日，证监会设立科创板科创成长层，专项服务未盈利但具 技术突破性、高研发投入的科技企业。政策要求企业达标后调层、强制股 票加注"U"标识及强化风险披露，投资者需签署专项风险揭示书。该机 制显著利好技术型环保企业，破解膜材料、碳捕集、固废资源化等领域研 发周期长导致的融资困局，定向增资条款支持技术产业化，人工智能与低 碳技术倾斜政策加速行业升级。建议关注水务及水处理领域碧水源、首创 环保，环境监测领域聚光科技。 ...