Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company has successfully entered the global market with its product GR1803 through a licensing agreement with Cullinan Therapeutics, which includes a total milestone payment of up to $712 million [1] - The company is rapidly expanding its domestic and international business lines, with significant clinical trial progress and new drug applications [2] - The leading product, Celeric monoclonal antibody, is expected to launch in August 2024 and participate in medical insurance negotiations in 2025 [2] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 206 million, 500 million, and 1.078 billion yuan respectively, with net losses expected to decrease from 622 million to 275 million yuan over the same period [2][4] - The company anticipates a significant year-on-year revenue growth rate of 2,384.1% in 2024 and 584.5% in 2025 [4] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to improve from -2.19 yuan in 2023 to -0.75 yuan in 2027 [4] Business Development - The company has submitted a new drug application for GR2001, which has reached the primary efficacy endpoint in its Phase III clinical trial for tetanus passive immunity [2] - The collaboration with Cullinan Therapeutics focuses on the CD3/BCMA target, indicating a strategic enhancement in the company's autoimmune TCE dual antibody layout [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [3][5]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the current policy environment is being driven by fundamental pressures, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the measures taken in 2008 and 2014 [3]. - Real estate is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, serving as a barometer for economic trends, making it a strategic investment focus [3]. - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private firms performing well in land acquisition and sales [3]. - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier cities, two-thirds of second-tier cities, and a very limited number of third-tier cities, which has been validated by recent sales performance [3]. - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are highlighted as critical areas to monitor, with first and second-tier cities expected to benefit more [3]. Summary by Sections New Housing Market - In the past week, new housing sales in 30 cities totaled 196.6 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 9.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% [24]. - First-tier cities accounted for 51.4 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 2.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.8% [24]. - Second-tier cities saw sales of 101.1 million square meters, up 15.6% month-on-month but down 16.0% year-on-year [24]. - Third-tier cities recorded 44.2 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 6.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.5% [24]. Second-Hand Housing Market - In the same week, second-hand housing sales across 14 sample cities totaled 214.0 million square meters, remaining flat month-on-month but down 7.1% year-on-year [31]. - First-tier cities contributed 85.0 million square meters, down 2.8% month-on-month [31]. - Second-tier cities recorded 99.7 million square meters, a slight increase of 0.3% month-on-month [31]. - Third-tier cities saw a month-on-month increase of 7.5%, totaling 29.3 million square meters [31]. Credit Bond Market - During the week of June 16-22, 15 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 10.358 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.187 billion yuan from the previous week [42]. - The total repayment amount was 13.495 billion yuan, an increase of 10.049 billion yuan week-on-week, resulting in a net financing amount of -3.137 billion yuan, down 10.236 billion yuan [42]. - The majority of the bonds issued were rated AAA, constituting 65.6% of the total [42].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][5]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the indoor creative design sector, focusing on interior decoration design, with a strong asset quality and cash flow performance [1][3]. - The company is expected to recover steadily in performance as the peak of real estate impairment has passed, with a projected net cash ratio of 407% by the end of 2024 [1][3]. - The integration of AI technologies is anticipated to enhance the company's business model and operational efficiency, potentially leading to significant growth in profitability [2][3]. Company Overview - The company, established in 2010, has evolved into a prominent brand in the interior design industry, recognized for its creative output and industry influence [15]. - Its main business segments include space design and soft decoration, primarily serving real estate developers, with a growing presence in public and commercial sectors [23][27]. Financial Analysis - The company experienced a revenue decline in 2022 and 2023 due to the downturn in the real estate sector, but is projected to stabilize in 2024 with revenues of 5.3 billion yuan [27][30]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 340 million yuan, showing a significant reduction in the decline compared to previous years [27][30]. - The company maintains a strong cash position, with over 1.08 billion yuan in cash assets, representing 78% of its current assets, and a low interest-bearing debt ratio of 1.8% [38][39]. Industry Analysis - The indoor design industry is considered a post-cycle sector of real estate, with a projected market size of approximately 96.9 billion yuan in 2024, influenced by new construction data [48]. - The demand for interior design services is closely tied to the new housing market, which has seen a decline in new construction over the past five years [1][48].

Company Overview - The report rates the company as "Buy" for the first time, indicating a positive outlook for investment [5] - The company, Blok, is a leading player in the building block toy sector, with significant growth potential [1] - Founded in 2014, Blok focuses on building block toys, with Ultraman as its core licensed IP, and is expanding its IP product matrix [1][14] Industry Insights - The "Guzi Economy," which encompasses the secondary economy around anime, games, and comics, is experiencing robust growth, providing ample market opportunities [2] - The building block toy market has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.5%, growing from 13.2 billion RMB in 2019 to 27.8 billion RMB in 2023 [2] Core Competitiveness - Blok's competitive edge lies in its rich IP matrix, significant supply chain scale effects, and excellent channel marketing strategies [3] - The company has a diverse product matrix that caters to a wide age range, with rapid iteration speed and a standardized supply chain [3][17] - Blok's marketing strategy is driven by content, enhancing brand influence through a robust online and offline sales network [3][16] Financial Projections and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.188 billion RMB, 1.913 billion RMB, and 2.663 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 396.2%, 61.0%, and 39.3% respectively [4] - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 2.241 billion RMB in 2024 and 4.414 billion RMB in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 155.6% and 97.0% [4][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target market capitalization of 430 billion yuan, corresponding to a PE of 15 times for 2026, indicating an upside potential of over 20% from the current price [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the mass apparel market, particularly in men's clothing, with a robust main business and promising growth in new retail management initiatives such as JD Outlet and FCC [1][14]. - The main brand, HLA, is positioned in the mass market, focusing on quality and cost-effectiveness, with a projected revenue growth of 3% to 165.3 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [1][3]. - The company has successfully expanded its retail capabilities through innovative business models, particularly in the JD Outlet segment, which is expected to see rapid growth [2][15]. Summary by Sections Company Fundamentals - The company has transitioned from being primarily a men's clothing brand to a broader retail platform, with significant growth in new business areas [14][15]. - The main brand, HLA, has maintained a strong market position, with revenue expected to reach 153 billion yuan in 2024, despite a challenging consumer environment [20][23]. Men's Clothing Business - The men's clothing sector has seen a stabilization in demand, with the company increasing its market share due to improved competitive dynamics [22][23]. - HLA's product offerings emphasize high cost-performance ratios, appealing to a rational consumer base [24][27]. New Business Initiatives - The JD Outlet business is projected to expand significantly, with net profits expected to grow from 1.67 billion yuan in 2025 to 7.77 billion yuan in 2027 [2][3]. - The FCC business, which includes exclusive Adidas products, is also anticipated to contribute positively to the company's profitability, with net profits expected to reach 1.35 billion yuan by 2027 [3][15]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 222.7 billion yuan in 2025, growing to 264.6 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.1% [3][4]. - The projected net profit for the parent company is expected to increase from 25.4 billion yuan in 2025 to 32.5 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3][4]. Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of over 85% from 2021 to 2024, making it an attractive option for income-focused investors [3][14].

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2025 06 19 年 月 日 宏观点评 增量信息有限——美联储 6 月议息会议点评 事件：北京时间 6 月 19 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布 6 月议息会议决议。 核心结论：美联储如期维持利率不变，下调经济预测、上调通胀预测，点 阵图显示年内降息次数维持 2 次不变，明年降息从 2 次减少至 1 次。会议 过后，市场降息预期变化不大，仍维持全年降 2 次、首次在 9 月。继续提 示：未来两个月将是重要的窗口期，关注贸易谈判结果、特朗普财政法案 落地情况、伊朗-以色列局势演化。美联储下次会议是 7/31，届时这些事 件均有望尘埃落定，因此下次会议可能释放更多政策信号。 1、美联储如期按兵不动，下调经济预测，点阵图显示降息空间减少。 >会议决议：美联储维持联邦基金利率 4.25-4.5%不变，符合市场预期。 会议声明有两处明显变化：（1）对经济前景不确定性的表述从"进一步加 剧"改为"有所下降，但依然很高"；（2）删掉了"委员会判断失业率和通 胀上升的风险已经增加"。 >点阵图：本次更新的利率点阵图与 3 月相比，美联储官员对年内降息的 预期维持 2 次不 ...

Group 1: Retail Sector Insights - In May, the retail sales year-on-year growth was 6.4%, slightly exceeding expectations, indicating a stable recovery in the retail sector since 2025, with some sub-sectors showing marginal improvement [3][5] - New consumption trends are thriving, with key companies such as Gu Ming, Cha Bai Dao, and others being highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3] - The retail adjustment continues, with companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Chongqing Department Store identified as key players in this ongoing transformation [3] Group 2: Electronics Sector Insights - BOE Technology Group announced plans to acquire a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics for a base price of 4.849 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance BOE's display business significantly [5] - The acquisition is projected to strengthen BOE's technical capabilities and market share, potentially increasing its market share to over 30% in the display panel sector [5] - Revenue forecasts for BOE are optimistic, with expected revenues of 215.996 billion yuan, 239.566 billion yuan, and 264.058 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Group 3: Social Services Sector Insights - Meituan is recognized as a leading local life service provider in China, with strong scale and operational efficiency, showing resilience and growth potential amid macroeconomic recovery [8] - Profit forecasts for Meituan indicate a net profit of 41.83 billion yuan, 53.46 billion yuan, and 63.86 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to be 49.98 billion yuan, 61.61 billion yuan, and 72.01 billion yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [4][6]. Core Views - The company is actively investing to strengthen its ecosystem and is optimistic about its long-term competitive advantages [1]. - The core local business has shown healthy growth with a significant investment of 100 billion RMB to support merchants, leading to a 17.8% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025 [2]. - New business segments are improving losses and expanding overseas, with a 19.2% increase in revenue for Q1 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Meituan achieved revenue of 865.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.92%, and a net profit of 100.57 billion RMB, up 87.33% year-on-year [1]. - The core local business generated revenue of 643 billion RMB, with an operating profit of 135 billion RMB, reflecting a 39.1% increase year-on-year [2]. - The new business segment reported revenue of 222 billion RMB, with operating losses narrowing to 23 billion RMB, a 17.5% year-on-year improvement [3]. Business Segments - The food delivery segment is experiencing healthy growth through refined operations, with a focus on high-quality products and services [2]. - The flash purchase segment continues to grow strongly, with an increase in the number of flash warehouses and order proportions [2]. - The company launched a "Meituan Membership" program to enhance cross-selling and transaction frequency in lower-tier markets [2]. Financial Metrics and Projections - The report projects net profits of 418.3 billion RMB, 534.6 billion RMB, and 638.6 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - Adjusted net profits are expected to be 499.8 billion RMB, 616.1 billion RMB, and 720.1 billion RMB for the same years, with corresponding valuations of 15.9, 12.9, and 11.0 times [4]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 37.45% in Q1 2025, with a decrease in sales and management expense ratios [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The acquisition of a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics is expected to enhance BOE's display business by improving product technology, increasing scale in large-size panels, and expanding market share [3][4] - The competitive landscape in the panel industry is anticipated to rebalance, with top manufacturers gaining more market power, potentially increasing their market share to over 70% [4] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - BOE plans to acquire a 30% stake in Rainbow Optoelectronics for a base price of 4.849 billion yuan, which will reduce Rainbow's stake to 69.79% while still maintaining control [1] Company Operations - Rainbow Optoelectronics operates a G8.6 LCD panel production line with a monthly capacity of 120K glass substrates, focusing on high-resolution and large-size panels [2] - The company is set to enhance its production capacity for large-size panels from 30K/month to 60K/month by March 2025, aiming for full production by 2026 [2] Market Position and Strategy - The acquisition is expected to strengthen BOE's VA technology capabilities and enhance its competitive position in the 50-inch and larger panel segments [3] - The market share of BOE is projected to exceed 30%, solidifying its leadership in the 32-inch to 50-inch and large-size panel markets [3] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 215.996 billion yuan, 239.566 billion yuan, and 264.058 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 9.415 billion yuan, 13.410 billion yuan, and 15.513 billion yuan [4][5] - The company's price-to-book (PB) ratio is estimated to be around 1.0 for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the retail sector [5] Core Insights - In May 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, slightly exceeding expectations [1][9] - The retail sales excluding automobiles amounted to 37,316 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.0% [1][9] - The overall retail sales from January to May 2025 totaled 203,171 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [1][9] Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In May 2025, the retail sales of essential goods showed positive growth across all categories, with food and oil products experiencing significant changes [2][14] - Essential goods such as grain and oil, food, beverages, and daily necessities saw year-on-year increases of 14.6%, 0.1%, 11.2%, and 8.0% respectively [2][14] - The retail sales of discretionary items, except for petroleum products, also showed growth, with home appliances and communication equipment experiencing accelerated growth [2][14] Regional and Channel Analysis - Urban retail sales in May reached 36,057 billion yuan, growing by 6.5% year-on-year, while rural retail sales were 5,269 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% [3][28] - Online retail sales of physical goods from January to May 2025 reached 49,878 billion yuan, accounting for 24.5% of total retail sales, with food, clothing, and daily necessities showing year-on-year growth of 14.5%, 1.2%, and 6.1% respectively [3][30] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights a stable recovery in the retail sector since 2025, with certain sub-sectors showing marginal improvements and policy support expected to drive future growth [4][34] - Key investment targets include companies in new consumption, retail transformation, cross-border e-commerce, and tourism sectors [4][34]