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焦点科技(002315):三季度营收稳健增长 17%,平台及AI 付费会员数量持续扩大
Guoxin Securities· 2025-10-28 01:53
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue growth of 17% year-on-year in Q3, with total revenue reaching 487 million yuan and a net profit of 122 million yuan, reflecting a slight decline of 1.98% year-on-year. The decline in net profit was primarily due to short-term impacts from stock incentive expenses [1][2] - The number of paid members on the China Manufacturing Network platform increased to 29,214, up by 2,546 from the previous year, indicating strong growth in membership and value contribution [1] - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 417 million yuan, a significant increase of 52.52% year-on-year, supported by increased cash income from the China Manufacturing Network [2] Financial Forecast and Metrics - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 517 million, 601 million, and 713 million yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 28, 24.1, and 20.3 [3][11] - Revenue forecasts for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 1,526.57 million yuan (2023), 1,668.82 million yuan (2024), 1,957.28 million yuan (2025), 2,234.91 million yuan (2026), and 2,540.99 million yuan (2027), reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.70% [4][11] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 was 78.52%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased investments in buyer-side promotions [2][9] Strategic Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand in emerging overseas markets and the enhancement of its comprehensive trade service capabilities, which will likely lead to increased market share [2][11] - The leading position in AI tools is anticipated to further strengthen the company's competitive advantage and contribute to performance growth [2][11]
富安娜(002327):第三季度收入降幅收窄,费用率企稳
Guoxin Securities· 2025-10-28 01:49
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][20][21] Core Views - The company experienced a narrowing decline in revenue in the third quarter, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% to 535 million yuan, compared to a 15.3% decline in the second quarter [1][2] - Gross margin decreased by 2.1 percentage points to 53.4%, primarily due to inventory clearance [1] - The overall expense ratio stabilized, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.7 percentage points, while sales and management expense ratios changed by +1.0 and -1.3 percentage points respectively [1] - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 28.7% to 54 million yuan, with a net profit margin decrease of 3.0 percentage points to 10.0% [1] - Inventory turnover days increased by 31 days to 285 days, indicating a proactive approach to assist franchisees with returns and exchanges [1] - The company’s operating cash flow significantly improved, maintaining a high net cash ratio of 2.07 [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a total revenue of 1.627 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.8%, and a net profit of 160 million yuan, down 45.5% [2][20] - The decline in revenue was mainly attributed to high inventory levels in the franchise channel due to strong stocking last year, while the direct sales channel was affected by reduced foot traffic [2] - The e-commerce channel remained relatively stable, with expected improvements in growth rates across all channels in the third quarter compared to the first half of the year [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to stabilize its performance next year as inventory improves and franchisee orders return to normal [20] - Long-term, the company has demonstrated operational resilience and has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of over 90% in the past three years [20] - Profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 390 million, 410 million, and 430 million yuan respectively, with a projected year-on-year change of -28.5%, +5.2%, and +5.1% [20][21] Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.46 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.5 [21] - The estimated gross margin for 2025 is 55%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 9.9% [21] - The company’s market capitalization is approximately 6.019 billion yuan, with a closing price of 7.18 yuan [5][21]
国信证券晨会纪要-20251028
Guoxin Securities· 2025-10-28 01:14
Macro and Strategy - The public REITs index has rebounded, with a weekly increase of 0.2%, and the average weekly change for property and operating rights REITs was +0.1% and +0.7% respectively [9][10] - The total market value of REITs increased to 218.8 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.52%, up 0.13 percentage points from the previous week [10][11] Chemical Industry - The 2026 refrigerant quota distribution plan has been released, with a reduction of 3,000 tons for R22 production quotas and a complete elimination of R141b quotas [14][15] - The flexibility of the third-generation refrigerant quotas has been enhanced, allowing for two adjustments per year, with a total not exceeding 30% of the quota amount [14][15] - The chemical industry is expected to maintain a favorable outlook for refrigerants, particularly R32 and R134a, due to tightening quota constraints [15] Mechanical Industry - Tesla plans to launch the Optimus V3 robot in Q1 2026, with a production capacity target of 1 million units by the end of next year [16][17] - The humanoid robot industry is anticipated to enter a large-scale production phase, benefiting both the complete machine and component supply chains [17][18] Oilfield Services - The company is a leading global oilfield service provider, with a focus on offshore oil and gas exploration and production [28][29] - The company is expected to benefit from China's offshore oil and gas development, with a projected capital expenditure of 135 billion yuan in 2025 [29][30] - The drilling platform utilization rate is high, and daily fees are expected to rise due to a decrease in retired platforms [29][30] Chemical Manufacturing - WanHua Chemical reported a revenue of 53.32 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% and a net profit of 3.03 billion yuan [31][32] - The polyurethane segment is experiencing a mixed demand, with a planned capacity expansion of 700,000 tons for MDI by Q2 2026 [32][33] - The petrochemical segment is under pressure from price declines, but revenue is expected to grow due to increased production capacity [33] Agricultural Solutions - Guoguang Co. reported a revenue of 1.523 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 6.09% [35][36] - The company is focusing on promoting comprehensive crop management solutions, with a significant increase in R&D investment [35][36] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [36][37] Dental Care - Dengkang Dental achieved a revenue of 1.228 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 16.66% [38] - The company is adjusting its online marketing strategy, which has led to a temporary slowdown in growth [38]
汇川技术(300124):2025年前三季度净利润增长27%,联合动力上市后表现良好
Guoxin Securities· 2025-10-28 01:14
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][21]. Core Views - The company reported a 24.67% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 26.84% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by robust growth in the new energy vehicle sector [1][2]. - The company is focusing on developing humanoid robots and has launched multiple humanoid products, positioning itself to gain a competitive edge in this field [3]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 54.42 billion, 63.83 billion, and 76.42 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 39, 33, and 27 times [3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 316.63 billion yuan and a net profit of 42.54 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 13.44%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. - The company's revenue from the general automation business was approximately 131 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%, while the new energy vehicle segment, particularly the joint power business, saw revenue of 145.25 billion yuan, up 35.52% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company has maintained a stable gross margin and net margin in its joint power business, with figures of 15.89% and 5.45%, respectively [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts revenue growth of 29.0% in 2025, reaching 477.93 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 27.0%, reaching 54.42 billion yuan [4][19]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 2.03 yuan in 2025, with a gradual increase to 2.85 yuan by 2027 [4][19]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to stabilize around 17.0% in 2025, with a slight increase to 18.1% by 2027 [4][19].
圣晖集成(603163):收入利润同比高增长,毛利率有望在四季度修复
Guoxin Securities· 2025-10-28 01:13
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][16][21] Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant year-on-year growth in revenue and profit, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 821 million yuan, up 59% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 33 million yuan, up 94% year-on-year [1][8] - The company has a robust order backlog, with new orders signed in the first half of 2025 amounting to 2.251 billion yuan, a 70% increase year-on-year, and a total backlog of 2.214 billion yuan as of Q3 2025, up 21% year-on-year [1][10] - The gross margin is expected to recover in Q4 2025, with Q3 gross margin at 8.53%, down 1.47 percentage points from Q2 [2][11] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.116 billion yuan, a 46% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 96 million yuan, a 29% increase year-on-year [1][8] - The company’s cash flow remains healthy, with net cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters of 2025 at 121 million yuan, an increase of 99 million yuan year-on-year [2][15] - The company’s contract liabilities, reflecting advance payments, stood at 175 million yuan as of Q3 2025, a 34% increase year-on-year [2][15] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for the company indicates net profits of 142 million yuan, 206 million yuan, and 305 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 24.1%, 45.4%, and 47.9% [3][16]
宁波银行(002142):2025 年三季报点评:资产质量持续改善
Guoxin Securities· 2025-10-28 01:08
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3] Core Views - The company's overall performance is in line with expectations, with a stable growth outlook for net profit and improving asset quality [3][2] - The company achieved a revenue of 55 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing an 8.3% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 22.4 billion yuan, up 8.4% year-on-year [1][2] - The net interest margin has stabilized, with an average of 1.76% for the first three quarters, unchanged from the previous half [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit growth have slightly rebounded, with a revenue of 550 billion yuan and a net profit of 224 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, showing year-on-year increases of 8.3% and 8.4% respectively [1][2] - The total assets reached 3.58 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, a 16.6% increase year-on-year, with loans totaling 17.2 trillion yuan, up 16.3% from the beginning of the year [1][2] - The company reported a non-performing loan ratio of 0.76%, stable compared to the beginning of the year, and a coverage ratio of 376% for provisions [2][3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 29.2 billion, 31.7 billion, and 34.1 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.6%, 8.4%, and 7.7% [3][4] - The diluted EPS is projected to be 4.27, 4.64, and 5.01 yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 6.5, 6.0, and 5.5 [3][4] - The estimated dividend yield for 2025 is 3.5%, indicating a reasonable return for investors [3][4]
龙佰集团(002601):三季度业绩承压,龙头静待需求拐点
Guoxin Securities· 2025-10-28 01:02
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Longbai Group is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][19] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in net profit in Q3 2025, with revenue of 6.1 billion yuan (down 13.7% year-on-year, down 2.7% quarter-on-quarter) and a net profit of 290 million yuan (down 65.7% year-on-year, down 58.6% quarter-on-quarter) [1][10] - The decline in revenue and net profit is primarily attributed to the drop in titanium dioxide prices and weak demand in the domestic market [1][10] - The report anticipates that the industry concentration will further increase due to the ongoing supply-demand imbalance in the titanium dioxide market [2][14] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the gross margin was 19.4% (down 6.4 percentage points year-on-year, down 5.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter), and the net profit margin was 4.7% (down 7.2 percentage points year-on-year, down 6.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter) [1][10] - The company’s operating expenses ratio was 12.1% (up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, up 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter) [1][10] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been revised down to 2.179 billion, 2.601 billion, and 2.920 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.91, 1.09, and 1.22 yuan [4][19] Market Conditions - The average price of rutile titanium dioxide in Q3 2025 was approximately 12,997 yuan/ton (down 14% year-on-year, down 9% quarter-on-quarter) [2][14] - The total production of titanium dioxide in China for the first three quarters of 2025 was 3.4 million tons, an increase of about 570,000 tons (20% year-on-year) [2][14] - The report notes that the domestic real estate market is under pressure, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 15% in housing completion area as of September 2025 [2][14] Future Outlook - The company is actively advancing projects such as the joint development of the Hongge North Mine and the Xujia Mine, which are expected to increase titanium concentrate capacity to 2.48 million tons and iron concentrate capacity to 7.6 million tons [3][17] - Despite the current challenges, the company maintains a strong position in the titanium dioxide industry, and the report suggests that the stock remains a favorable investment option [4][19]
家家悦(603708):二季度盈利水平持续提升,供应链优化释放业绩弹性
Guoxin Securities· 2025-10-27 14:34
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][9][3] Core Views - The company has shown a continuous improvement in profitability levels in the third quarter, with a slight decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit [1] - The company is benefiting from ongoing supply chain optimization and product development, leading to improved gross margins and reduced total expenses [1] - The company is actively expanding its store network, with new openings and a focus on upgrading store formats to enhance operational quality [9][3] Revenue and Profitability - In the third quarter, the company achieved revenue of 4.581 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.87%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 24.34% to 0.23 billion yuan [1] - Year-to-date, the company reported a revenue decline of 3.81% and a net profit increase of 9.43%, indicating stable performance [1] - The gross margin for the third quarter was 23.79%, an increase of 1.14 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to enhanced supply chain capabilities and optimized product mix [2] Store Expansion and Performance - Direct sales revenue from regions outside Shandong province grew by 1.67% to 2.271 billion yuan, while revenue within Shandong province declined by 4.77% to 9.997 billion yuan [2] - The company opened 7 new direct stores and 13 franchise stores in the third quarter, while closing 14 stores due to layout optimization and lease terminations, resulting in a total of 1,090 stores at the end of the reporting period [2] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts net profits of 2.23 billion yuan, 2.33 billion yuan, and 2.42 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 30, 28.7, and 27.7 [3][4] - Revenue projections for the next five years show a gradual recovery, with expected growth rates of 2.77% in 2024 and 4.40% in 2025 [4]
金融工程日报:沪指放量上涨逼近4000点,科技龙头全线走强-20251027
Guoxin Securities· 2025-10-27 14:33
- The market performance on October 27, 2025, showed that most indices were in an upward trend, with the CSI 500 index performing the best among scale indices, and the ChiNext index performing the best among sector indices[2][6] - The communication, electronics, non-ferrous metals, steel, and computer industries performed well, while the media, food and beverage, real estate, banking, and textile and apparel industries performed poorly[2][7] - The market sentiment at the close showed 64 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 20 stocks hitting the daily limit down, with a sealing rate of 60% and a continuous board rate of 23%[2][14][18] - The financing balance as of October 24, 2025, was 24,398 billion yuan, and the securities lending balance was 174 billion yuan, with the financing balance accounting for 2.5% of the market's circulating market value[2][20][23] - The ETF with the highest premium on October 24, 2025, was the Belt and Road ETF, while the ETF with the highest discount was the Sci-Tech Composite Index ETF Xingye[3][24][26] - The median annualized discount rates for the main contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures over the past year were 0.16%, 3.06%, 10.44%, and 12.84%, respectively[3][29][32] - The stocks with the most institutional attention in the past week were Yuyue Medical, CVTE, Dangsheng Technology, Liangxin Co., Ltd., Guangxin Technology, Runfeng Co., Ltd., Ruipu Bio, and Good Wife, with Yuyue Medical being surveyed by 113 institutions[4][31][34] - The top ten stocks with net inflows from institutional seats on the Dragon and Tiger List on October 27, 2025, included Jingzhida, Sunflower, Star Ring Technology-U, Antai Technology, Hengbao Co., Ltd., China Electric Port, Haixia Innovation, Shandong Molong, Pioneer New Materials, and Chang Aluminum Co., Ltd.[4][36][37]
ETF:周报上周股票型ETF涨幅中位数达 3.45%,AIETF领涨-20251027
Guoxin Securities· 2025-10-27 14:32
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week (from October 20 to October 24, 2025), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was 3.45%. Among broad-based ETFs, the median return of ChiNext ETFs was 8.06%, the highest. By sector, the median return of technology ETFs was 6.60%, the highest. By theme, the median return of AI ETFs was 10.92%, the highest [1][13]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 29.513 billion yuan, but the overall scale increased by 109.578 billion yuan. Among broad-based ETFs, the Shanghai 50 ETF had the highest net subscription of 884 million yuan; by sector, consumer ETFs had the highest net subscription of 581 million yuan; by hot theme, securities ETFs had the highest net subscription of 1.426 billion yuan [2]. - As of last Friday, among broad-based ETFs, ChiNext ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles; by sector, consumer and large financial ETFs had relatively moderate valuation quantiles; by sub - theme, wine and photovoltaic ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of A500 and large financial ETFs increased significantly [3]. - From Monday to Thursday last week, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs increased from 46.442 billion yuan in the previous week to 46.670 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume increased from 2.461 billion shares in the previous week to 2.546 billion shares. Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily margin trading purchases and short - selling volumes, science and technology innovation board ETFs and chip ETFs had relatively high average daily margin trading purchases, while CSI 1000 ETFs and CSI 300 ETFs had relatively high average daily short - selling volumes [4]. - As of last Friday, Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai - Peregrine ranked top three in the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs. This week, 6 ETFs such as Penghua Hang Seng Technology ETF, E Fund CSI Satellite Industry ETF, and Boshi Industrial Software ETF will be issued [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Performance - The median weekly return of equity ETFs last week was 3.45%. The median returns of different broad - based ETFs were: ChiNext ETFs 8.06%, science and technology innovation board ETFs 6.23%, A500 ETFs 3.65%, CSI 500 ETFs 3.49%, CSI 300 ETFs 3.33%, CSI 1000 ETFs 3.28%, and Shanghai 50 ETFs 2.80%. The median returns of cross - border, bond, money, and commodity ETFs were 2.90%, 0.12%, 0.01%, and - 6.19% respectively [13]. - By sector, the median returns of technology, cyclical, large financial, and consumer sector ETFs were 6.60%, 2.76%, 1.70%, and 0.50% respectively. By hot theme, the median returns of AI, chip, and robot ETFs were 10.92%, 8.33%, and 4.82% respectively, showing relatively strong performance, while the median returns of wine, medicine, and dividend ETFs were - 2.17%, 0.60%, and 1.14% respectively, showing relatively weak performance [16]. ETF Scale Change and Net Subscription/Redeem - As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross - border, and bond ETFs were 3,675.5 billion yuan, 916.8 billion yuan, and 575.8 billion yuan respectively. The scales of commodity and money ETFs were relatively small, at 225.4 billion yuan and 167.9 billion yuan respectively. Among broad - based ETFs, the CSI 300 ETF and science and technology innovation board ETF had relatively large scales, while the A500, Shanghai 50, ChiNext, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 ETFs had relatively small scales [18][21]. - By sector, as of last Friday, the scale of technology sector ETFs was 421.7 billion yuan, followed by cyclical sector ETFs at 224 billion yuan. The scales of large financial and consumer ETFs were relatively small, at 206.1 billion yuan and 182.2 billion yuan respectively. By hot theme, as of last Friday, the scales of chip, securities, and medicine ETFs were the highest, at 161.8 billion yuan, 139.7 billion yuan, and 99.2 billion yuan respectively [25]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 29.513 billion yuan, and the overall scale increased by 109.578 billion yuan; money ETFs had a net subscription of 1.3895 billion yuan, and the overall scale increased by 1.3909 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, the Shanghai 50 ETF had the highest net subscription of 884 million yuan, and its scale increased by 6.116 billion yuan; the ChiNext ETF had the highest net redemption of 6.832 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 7.146 billion yuan. By sector, consumer ETFs had the highest net subscription of 581 million yuan, and their scale increased by 358 million yuan; technology ETFs had the highest net redemption of 7.084 billion yuan, and their scale increased by 22.091 billion yuan. By hot theme, securities ETFs had the highest net subscription of 1.426 billion yuan, and their scale increased by 4.062 billion yuan; chip ETFs had the highest net redemption of 3.047 billion yuan, and their scale increased by 9.108 billion yuan [28][33]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and A500 ETFs were at the 90.35%, 88.62%, 99.01%, 96.04%, 63.07%, and 99.70% quantile levels respectively, and the price - to - book ratios were at the 75.60%, 71.81%, 99.26%, 64.06%, 57.71%, and 99.70% quantile levels respectively. Since December 31, 2019, the current price - to - earnings and price - to - book ratios of science and technology innovation board ETFs are at the 98.43% and 71.81% quantile levels respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of the A500 ETF increased significantly [36][37]. - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of cyclical, large financial, consumer, and technology sector ETFs were at the 71.56%, 50.12%, 29.76%, and 99.42% quantile levels respectively, and their price - to - book ratios were at the 79.88%, 67.68%, 36.60%, and 94.06% quantile levels respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantile of large financial ETFs increased significantly [39]. ETF Margin Trading - Overall, the short - selling volume of equity ETFs has been on an upward trend in the past year. As of last Thursday, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs increased from 46.442 billion yuan in the previous week to 46.670 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume increased from 2.461 billion shares in the previous week to 2.546 billion shares [48]. - From Monday to Thursday last week, among the top 10 equity ETFs with the highest average daily margin trading purchases, science and technology innovation board ETFs and chip ETFs had relatively high average daily margin trading purchases. Among the top 10 equity ETFs with the highest average daily short - selling volumes, CSI 1000 ETFs and CSI 300 ETFs had relatively high average daily short - selling volumes [51][56]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia Fund ranked first in the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs and had a relatively high management scale in multiple sub - fields such as scale index ETFs, theme, style, and strategy index ETFs, and cross - border ETFs. E Fund ranked second in the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs and had a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and cross - border ETFs. Huatai - Peregrine Fund ranked third in the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs and had a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and theme, style, and strategy index ETFs [60]. - Last week, 10 new ETFs were established. This week, 6 ETFs such as Penghua Hang Seng Technology ETF, E Fund CSI Satellite Industry ETF, and Boshi Industrial Software ETF will be issued [63].