Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From December 22 - 26, the A - share market was active with continuous gains for five days. The commercial aerospace and precious metals sectors performed well. The bond market was weak on Monday but improved on Tuesday, with the 10 - year Treasury bond rate at 1.84% on Friday, up 0.68bp from the previous week. The convertible bond market was strong, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index rising 1.64% and the price median increasing 1.52%. [1][7][8] - From December 29 - 31, the convertible bond market was still strong, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index hitting a new high. The market price median was close to the August high, and the premium rates in all price - range convertible bonds were above the 95% historical percentile. In the future, the convertible bond market has support from the expected spring rally and institutional buying, but risks from annual report disclosures and high - gain hot - topic bonds should be noted. [3][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Focus (December 22 - 26) Stock Market - The A - share market had five consecutive days of gains. The commercial aerospace sector was boosted by policies and industry development, and precious metals were strong. The trading volume increased, and different sectors were active on different days. By industry, most Shenwan primary industries rose, with non - ferrous metals, national defense and military industry leading, and beauty care, social services lagging. [7][8] Bond Market - On Monday, the bond market was weak due to the disappointment of LPR cut expectations and the strong equity market. On Tuesday, Treasury bond futures and spot bonds improved. The central bank's Q4 monetary policy meeting had little impact. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.84% on Friday, up 0.68bp from the previous week. [1][7][8] Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.64%, the price median increased 1.52%, and the arithmetic average parity increased 2.42%. The overall conversion premium rate decreased by 0.21%. By industry, national defense and military industry, building materials led in gains, while commercial retail, beauty care led in losses. In terms of individual bonds, Jiamei, Zai 22, etc. had large gains, while Huati, Saili, etc. had large losses. The total trading volume was 3928.17 billion yuan, with an average daily volume of 785.63 billion yuan, higher than the previous week. [2][8][11] Views and Strategies (December 29 - 31) - The convertible bond market was strong last week, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index hitting a new high. The market price median was close to the August high, and the premium rates in all price - range convertible bonds were at high historical levels. [3][17] - In the future, the convertible bond market has support from the expected spring rally and institutional buying in January. However, in January, with the annual report disclosures and high - gain hot - topic bonds, some individual bonds with performance pressure may face challenges. [3][17] - Currently, the convertible bond market valuation is at a historical high, and overall opportunities are scarce. Relative - return investors are advised to allocate small - position, well - balanced non - redeemable and appropriately - priced equity - biased convertible bonds in sectors such as power, storage, etc. Absolute - return investors are advised to focus on high - volatility underlying stocks below 130 yuan or industry leaders with historically low valuations. [3][17] Valuation Overview - As of December 26, the average conversion premium rates of equity - biased convertible bonds in different price ranges were at high historical percentile levels. The average YTM of debt - biased convertible bonds with a parity below 70 yuan was - 4.44%, at a low historical percentile. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 44.43%, at a high historical percentile, and the difference between the convertible bond implied volatility and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stock was 3.3%, also at a high historical percentile. [18] Primary Market Tracking Last Week (December 22 - 26) - Shuangle Convertible Bond and Jin 05 Convertible Bond announced issuance, and Pulan Convertible Bond was listed. Shuangle Convertible Bond is from the basic chemical industry, with an issue size of 800 million yuan. Jin 05 Convertible Bond is from the power equipment industry, with an issue size of 1.672 billion yuan. Pulan Convertible Bond is from the computer industry, with an issue size of 243 million yuan. [25][26][27] Next Week (December 29 - 31) - Tianzhun Convertible Bond and Shenyu Convertible Bond are expected to be listed. Tianzhun Convertible Bond is from the machinery and equipment industry, with an issue size of 872 million yuan. Shenyu Convertible Bond is from the communication industry, with an issue size of 500 million yuan. [29][30] Overall Situation - As of December 26, there are currently 93 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 146.86 billion yuan. Among them, 3 issues with a total scale of 3.43 billion yuan have been approved for registration, and 10 issues with a total scale of 8.52 billion yuan have passed the listing committee. [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US dollar bond industry is "Underperform the Market" [1][4] Core Viewpoints - US employment data continues to cool, with weak employment growth and a rising unemployment rate. In November, non - farm payrolls increased by about 64,000, and the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. In October, non - farm data weakened significantly, with a decrease of 105,000 jobs [1] - Inflation data unexpectedly cooled. The US CPI in November rose 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose only 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest since 2021, providing room for interest rate cut expectations next year [2] - The US GDP in the third quarter grew at an annualized quarterly rate of 4.3%, the fastest in two years, mainly driven by consumer and business spending resilience and more stable trade policies [2] - In the US dollar bond market, it is recommended to prioritize defense. Corely allocate medium - and short - duration investment - grade bonds (5 - 7 - year investment - grade bonds currently have a yield of about 4.3%) and moderately allocate TIPS while keeping low allocations for long - duration varieties over 10 years [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. US Macro - economy and Liquidity - Employment: US employment data shows a cooling trend. In November, non - farm payrolls increased slightly, and the unemployment rate reached a new high. In October, non - farm data was significantly weak, affected by the sharp reduction in federal government employment [1] - Inflation: The US CPI and core CPI in November showed significant cooling, providing room for future monetary policy adjustments and interest rate cut expectations next year [2] - GDP: The US GDP in the third quarter grew at an annualized quarterly rate of 4.3%, the fastest in two years, with strong consumer and business spending [2] 2. Exchange Rate - The report presents multiple figures related to non - US currency trends, Sino - US sovereign bond spreads, and the relationship between the US dollar index and other indicators, but no specific analysis content about exchange rates is provided [50][55][57] 3. Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds - The report shows figures such as the return trends of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds since 2023 (by level and industry), the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, and the returns in the past two weeks (by level and industry), but no specific analysis content is provided [63][65][67] 4. Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 16 rating actions on Chinese - funded US dollar bond issuers, including 2 rating revocations, 6 rating upgrades, 5 rating downgrades, and 3 initial ratings. Specific rating actions for each issuer are listed in the table [71][72]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The refining profit is expected to recover, with sulfur providing incremental performance [1] - The supply-demand relationship for PX continues to improve, and profitability in the polyester segment is likely to recover [2] - The company benefits from the increase in gasoline and diesel crack spreads due to overseas refinery disruptions [3] - Significant price increases in sulfur are expected to enhance the company's profit margins [4] - The company is positioned for substantial profit recovery from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 1.38 billion, 2.27 billion, and 2.57 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 90.9%, 64.2%, and 13.1% [4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading private refining and chemical enterprise in China, with a processing capacity of 40 million tons of crude oil and significant production capabilities in PX and PTA [1][18] - The company has a diverse product range, including high-end materials and new energy products, with ongoing projects expected to launch between 2026 and 2027 [1][18] Market Dynamics - The domestic PX capacity is expected to see minimal expansion from 2024 to 2025, while downstream PTA and polyester capacities are projected to grow, improving the supply-demand balance [2] - Global gasoline and diesel crack spreads have surged due to disruptions in overseas refineries, benefiting the company's export capabilities [3] Financial Projections - The company anticipates a significant recovery in profitability, with net profit forecasts showing substantial growth over the next three years [4][11] - Revenue from chemical products, refining, PTA, and polyester films is expected to contribute significantly to the company's overall income, with stable margins in the refining segment [21][39] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its product chain through investments in high-end materials and new energy sectors, aiming for a comprehensive industrial layout [1][28] - The introduction of strategic investors like Saudi Aramco is expected to bolster the company's long-term growth prospects [34][28]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月28日 2025年12月29日 可交换私募债跟踪 私募 EB 每周跟踪（20251222-20251226） 固定收益快评 | 证券分析师： | 王艺熹 | 021-60893204 | wangyixi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522100006 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 吴越 | 021-60375496 | wuyue8@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525080001 | | 证券分析师： | 赵婧 | 0755-22940745 | zhaojing@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513080004 | 项目获批进度不及预期，经济增速下滑 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 1 证券研究报告 表1：私募 EB 每周跟踪(2025-12-26） | 债券名称 | 主承销商 | 规模 | 标的股票 | 项目状态 | 更新日期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 南山集团有限公司 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月29日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-26 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3963.67 | 13603.89 | 4657.24 | 14573.33 | 3934.70 | 1345.82 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.10 | 0.53 | 0.31 | 0.38 | -0.09 | -0.23 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 8936.44 | 12665.47 | 4604.26 | 4672.38 | 5713.13 | 451.90 | $\frac{\pi\times6}{\pi\times6}$. 【重点推荐】 行业与公司 建筑行业快评:洁净室工程点评-为何洁净室能成为 AI 基建主线？ 华图山鼎(300492.SZ) 深度报告:公考热下竞争格局重塑，产品创新抢占 成长先机 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 宏观周报:宏观经济周报-当基期调整遇上价格回 ...

《生物安全法案》复盘 --如何看待地缘政治对中国CXO企业的影响？ 行业研究 · 行业专题 医药生物 · 医疗研发外包 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 0755-81982723 pengsiyu@guosen.com.cn S0980521060003 证券分析师：陈曦炳 0755-81982939 chenxibing@guosen.com.cn S0980521120001 证券分析师：彭思宇 证券分析师：凌珑 021-60375401 linglong@guosen.com.cn S0980525070003 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 1 报告摘要 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月28日 n 靴子落地，美国《2026财年国防授权法案》夹带《生物安全法案》生效。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2 ü 《2026财年国防授权法案》夹带《生物安全法案》（主要指第851节《禁止与特定生物技术公司签订合同》）落地，标志着美国已将生物安全正式纳入国家防务与 安全战略框架统筹考量，同时彰显其在生物技术供应链自主可控的明确政策转向，本质是中美的科技竞争与产业安全博弈在生物领域的延 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月28日 基金周报 中国 ETF 市场总规模突破 6 万亿，基金销售子公司再迎扩容 核心观点 金融工程周报 上周市场回顾。上周 A 股市场主要宽基指数全线上涨，中证 500、创业 板指、中小板指收益靠前，收益分别为 4.03%、3.90%、3.88%，上证 综指、沪深 300、科创 50 收益靠后，收益分别为 1.88%、1.95%、2.85%。 从成交额来看，上周主要宽基指数成交额均有所上升。行业方面，上周 有色金属、国防军工、基础化工收益靠前，收益分别为 6.45%、6.39%、 5.41%，商贸零售、银行、煤炭收益靠后，收益分别为-1.31%、-0.89%、 -0.89%。 截至上周五，央行逆回购净回笼资金 348 亿元，逆回购到期 4575 亿元， 净公开市场投放 4227 亿元。除 10 年期外，不同期限的国债利率均有所 下行，利差扩大 7.43BP。 上周共上报 77 只基金，较上上周申报数量有所增加。申报的产品包括 1 只 REITs，2 只 QDII，8 只 FOF，易方达中证全指红利质量 ETF、前海 开源上证科创板 100ETF、天弘创业板新能源 ETF、鹏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (from December 22, 2025, to December 26, 2025), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was 2.75%. Among broad - based ETFs, the CSI 500ETF had the highest return with a median increase of 4.04%. By sector, the cyclical ETF had the highest return with a median of 5.37%. By theme, the new energy vehicle ETF had the highest return with a median of 7.17% [1][13]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net subscription of 35.634 billion yuan, and the overall scale increased by 132.202 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, the A500ETF had the largest net subscription of 49.322 billion yuan; by sector, the consumer ETF had the least net redemption of 580 million yuan; by hot theme, the pharmaceutical ETF had the largest net subscription of 408 million yuan [2][30][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Performance - The median weekly return of equity ETFs was 2.75%. Among broad - based ETFs, the CSI 500, STAR Market, ChiNext, CSI 1000, A500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 ETFs had median returns of 4.04%, 4.00%, 3.92%, 3.78%, 2.75%, 1.96%, and 1.41% respectively. The median returns of commodity, cross - border, bond, and money - market ETFs were 3.59%, 0.16%, 0.13%, and 0.02% respectively [13]. - By sector, the median returns of cyclical, technology, large - financial, and consumer - sector ETFs were 5.37%, 3.93%, 1.50%, and - 0.16% respectively. By theme, the new energy vehicle, military, and photovoltaic ETFs had relatively strong performance with median returns of 7.17%, 5.84%, and 5.38% respectively, while the bank, liquor, and pharmaceutical ETFs had relatively weak performance with median returns of - 0.89%, - 0.79%, and - 0.16% respectively [19]. ETF Scale Change and Net Subscription/Redeem - As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross - border, and bond ETFs were 3.8155 trillion yuan, 970.1 billion yuan, and 804.6 billion yuan respectively. The scales of commodity and money - market ETFs were relatively small, at 257 billion yuan and 177.9 billion yuan respectively. Among broad - based ETFs, the SSE 300 and A500ETFs had larger scales of 1.1944 trillion yuan and 299.7 billion yuan respectively [21]. - By sector, the technology - sector ETF had a scale of 430.5 billion yuan, followed by the cyclical - sector ETF with a scale of 215.9 billion yuan. The large - financial and consumer ETFs had relatively smaller scales of 197.6 billion yuan and 185.5 billion yuan respectively. By hot theme, the chip, securities, and pharmaceutical ETFs had the highest scales of 148 billion yuan, 141 billion yuan, and 101.9 billion yuan respectively [24][25]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net subscription of 35.634 billion yuan and the overall scale increased by 132.202 billion yuan; money - market ETFs had a net redemption of 8.324 billion yuan and the overall scale decreased by 8.307 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, the A500ETF had the largest net subscription of 49.322 billion yuan, and its scale increased by 56.639 billion yuan; the SSE 300ETF had the largest net redemption of 5.897 billion yuan [30]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of the SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and A500ETFs were at the 83.92%, 86.40%, 97.69%, 95.55%, 63.15%, and 97.86% quantiles respectively, and the price - to - book ratios were at the 64.26%, 72.88%, 99.59%, 65.46%, 63.64%, and 97.86% quantiles respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of the A500ETF increased significantly [37]. - Among broad - based ETFs, the ChiNext - related ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles; by sector, the consumer and large - financial ETFs had relatively moderate valuation quantiles; by sub - theme, the liquor and new energy vehicle ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles [44]. ETF Margin Trading and Short Selling - As of last Thursday, the margin balance of equity ETFs increased from 47.637 billion yuan in the previous week to 47.882 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume decreased from 2.44 billion shares in the previous week to 2.433 billion shares. Among the top 10 ETFs in terms of average daily margin purchases and short - selling volumes, the STAR Market ETF and the securities ETF had relatively high average daily margin purchases, and the CSI 1000ETF and the SSE 300ETF had relatively high average daily short - selling volumes [4][45][52]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai - Peregrine ranked in the top three in terms of the total scale of listed non - money ETFs. This week, two ETFs, GF SSE STAR Market Chip ETF and Huabao SSE STAR Market Chip ETF, will be issued [5][56].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月29日 2025年12月28日 美元债双周报（25 年第 52 周） 弱于大市 就业降温、通胀回落，美债配置坚守中短久期防御 美国就业数据继续降温，就业增长乏力、失业率上行。美国劳工统计局最 新发布的 10 月–11 月就业报告显示，11 月非农就业人数增加约 64,000 人，略高于预期，但仍处于较低增速区间。与此同时，失业率意外上升 至 4.6%，为 2021 年 9 月以来最高水平，反映劳动力市场整体延续疲弱 态势。10 月非农数据显著走弱，就业人数减少 105,000 人，主要受联邦 政府就业大幅缩水拖累。报告还显示，私营部门就业弹性不足，全职岗 位增长有限，部分行业招聘意愿减弱，就业质量指标趋弱。 通胀数据意外降温，为明年降息预期提供空间。美国 11 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.7%，低于市场预期；剔除食品与能源后的核心 CPI 同比仅上涨 2.6%， 为 2021 年以来最低水平，显示通胀压力显著缓解。由于此前联邦政府 停摆导致 10 月价格数据缺失，本次报告无法提供完整月度环比数据。 这种技术性中断增加了短期解读数据的难度，但整体趋势仍指向通胀降 温。市场普遍认为 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the restaurant industry is experiencing a weak recovery, with leading brands pursuing diversified growth strategies, particularly in the tea beverage sector, which shows promising investment opportunities [3][5][9] - The report highlights that from January to November 2025, the national restaurant revenue increased by 3.3%, lagging behind the 4.1% growth in retail sales, indicating a continued weak recovery in demand [3][13] - The online channel is identified as a structural growth driver, with significant benefits observed in the coffee and tea sectors due to the ongoing competition in instant retail [3][14] Group 2 - The analysis of the market performance indicates that leading tea beverage brands have significantly benefited from the delivery competition, with companies like Luckin Coffee and Mixue Group showing substantial stock price increases of 39.2% and 45.4% respectively [3][33] - The report notes that the performance of restaurant leaders is varied, with some brands like Guoquan and Xiaocaiyuan showing strong same-store sales growth, while others face pressure [3][33] - The investment framework for 2025 suggests that the valuation of leading tea beverage brands is shifting due to changes in performance expectations, with same-store revenue growth serving as a key valuation anchor [3][8][9] Group 3 - The sub-industry analysis reveals that the ready-to-drink tea segment is experiencing a surge in revenue and adjusted net profit, with a year-on-year increase of 32.5% and 58.0% respectively in the first half of 2025 [3][44] - The report indicates that the fast-food sector shows resilience, with brands like KFC and Xiaocaiyuan maintaining stable same-store sales growth despite broader market pressures [3][53] - The report also highlights that the overall restaurant sector is under pressure, particularly in the casual dining segment, which is affected by various factors including the rise of pre-packaged meals [3][53] Group 4 - The investment recommendations maintain an "outperform" rating for the restaurant sector, emphasizing the strong operational capabilities of leading brands and their potential to navigate through market cycles [3][9] - The report suggests that while the tea beverage sector faces growth challenges, leading companies with strong operational and innovative capabilities are expected to gain market share [3][9] - The report identifies specific companies such as Haidilao, Yum China, Guoquan, and Mixue Group as key investment targets for 2026, based on their strong same-store recovery potential and favorable franchisee returns [3][9][66]