证券研究报告 | 2025年06月23日 ETF 周报 本周近 50 亿元资金流入金融 ETF，其中证券 ETF 净申购超 30 亿元 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2025 年 06 月 16 日至 2025 年 06 月 20 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度 收益率中位数为-0.87%。宽基 ETF 中，上证 50ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 0.13%， 收益最高。按板块划分，科技 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为-0.70%，跌幅最小。按 主题进行分类，银行 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 3.09%，收益最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净申购 127.95 亿元，总体规模减少 105.01 亿元。在宽基 ETF 中，上周科创板 ETF 净申购最多，为 30.38 亿元；按板块来看，大金 融 ETF 净申购最多，为 45.60 亿元；按热点主题来看，证券 ETF 净申购最 多，为 33.74 亿元。 上周新成立 8 只 ETF，为华安中证 A500 增强策略 ETF、国联安中证 A500 增强策略 ETF、富国恒指港股通 ETF、东财中证沪港深互联网 ETF、中证 A100 指数 ET ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月23日 上周市场焦点（6 月 16 日-6 月 20 日） 股市方面，上周权益市场震荡下跌，或受"618"大促结束、媒体舆论 对盲盒、食品饮料行业的影响，上周消费板块表现疲弱；红利属性的银 行板块、以及受产业订单预期向好拉动的科技板块表现较好。 债市方面，上周资金面总体维持偏松，国家统计局公布 5 月经济数据、 陆家嘴金融论坛召开等事件未对债市形成较大影响，债市全周延续震荡 行情；周五 10 年期国债利率收于 1.64%，较前周下行 0.44bp。 转债市场方面，上周转债个券多数收跌，中证转债指数全周-0.17%，价 格中位数-0.48%，我们计算的算术平均平价全周-2.08%，全市场转股溢 价率与上周相比+2.39%。个券层面，晶瑞（湿电子化学品）、联得（显 示模组设备）、天创（鞋服产品）、雪榕（食用菌）、首华（天然气供 应）转债涨幅靠前；金陵（足球概念）、志特（建筑铝膜）、金丹（PLA 概念）、东时（驾培）转债跌幅靠前。 观点及策略（6 月 23 日-6 月 27 日） 非银标的相继提议下修，关注临期转债机会： 上周国家统计局发布 5 月份经济数据，各分项表现较为分化，在 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage sector [4] Core Views - The sentiment in the liquor and restaurant chain markets has improved, with a focus on the performance of beer and beverages during the peak season [11] - The retail sales of tobacco and alcohol in China reached 278.7 billion yuan from January to May, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.7%, with May's sales at 48.2 billion yuan, up 11.2% year-on-year [2] - The white liquor index rose by 1.1% this week, indicating a marginal recovery in market sentiment [13] - The report suggests three investment themes: leading companies with proven risk resilience, those showing digital transformation benefits, and companies with market share growth potential [13] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector saw a slight decline of 0.02% this week but outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.49 percentage points [19] - The top gainers in the food and beverage sector included Morning Light Biological (13.43%), Huangtai Liquor (11.41%), and Jinzhongzi Liquor (9.78%) [19] 1.1 White Liquor - The white liquor production from January to May totaled 1.597 million kiloliters, down 7.6% year-on-year, with May's production at 291,000 kiloliters, a 13.4% decline [2] - The report highlights the importance of adjusting policy execution methods to support normal consumption demands [2] - Key recommendations include leading brands like Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, as well as companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Jiangsu Yanghe [2][13] 1.2 Consumer Goods - The sentiment in the consumer goods sector has slightly improved, with a focus on the supply-demand dynamics [14] - The beer sector is expected to perform well during the peak season, with recommendations for stocks like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer [14] - The snack sector is experiencing differentiation, with a focus on companies that are innovating in products and channels [15] 2. Key Data Tracking - The report tracks significant events and market movements, including the performance of various companies and their stock prices [19][68] - The report notes that the high-end liquor prices continue to face downward pressure, with Moutai's price at 1,935 yuan per bottle, down 55 yuan from the previous week [12][30] 2.1 Market Review - The food and beverage sector's performance is closely monitored, with specific attention to the fluctuations in stock prices and market sentiment [19][20] 2.4 Important Events - The report lists significant corporate events, including stock pledges and management changes within key companies in the sector [68][69]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media sector [5][40]. Core Views - The short-term performance cycle is expected to improve, with a long-term positive outlook on AI applications and IP trends [4][40]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on individual stocks within the gaming, advertising media, and film sectors, as the fundamentals show signs of recovery [4][40]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media sector experienced a decline of 1.78% during the week of June 16-20, underperforming both the CSI 300 index (-0.45%) and the ChiNext index (-1.66%) [12][14]. - Notable gainers included Lianjian Optoelectronics, Baina Qiancheng, and ST Huatong, while major decliners were Yue Media and Yuanlong Yatu [12][13]. Key Developments - OpenAI signed a $200 million contract with the U.S. Department of Defense and launched a new feature called "ChatGPT Record" [2][17]. - ByteDance introduced the AI video generation model Seedance 1.0, outperforming Google's latest model [2][18]. - MiniMax launched a video agent tool that generates videos from text commands and maintains character consistency using uploaded images [2][19]. - Beijing introduced support measures for the gaming and esports industry, offering up to 5 million yuan for outstanding projects [2][19]. Important Data Tracking - The box office for the week of June 16-22 reached 366 million yuan, with the top three films being "Sauce Garden Case" (150 million yuan), "New Dragon Trainer" (73 million yuan), and "Breakup List" (32 million yuan) [3][21]. - The top-grossing mobile games in May 2025 were "Whiteout Survival," "Gossip Harbor: Merge & Story," and "PUBG MOBILE" [28][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on gaming, advertising media, and film sectors, with specific stock recommendations including Kaiying Network, Giant Network, and Yaoji Technology [4][40]. - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications across various sectors, including marketing, education, and gaming, and recommends companies like Bubble Mart and Yaoji Technology for IP trends [4][40].

海外资管机构月报 5 月美国股票型基金涨幅中位数超 5%，其中大盘成长型基金 反弹近 9% 证券研究报告 | 2025年06月23日 美国公募基金市场月度收益 2025 年 5 月，美国股票型基金业绩强于国际股票基金、债券基金和资产配 置基金。具体来看，5 月美国股票型基金、国际股票型基金、债券型基金、 资产配置型基金收益中位数分别为 5.59%、4.57%、0.08%、3.31%。 美国非货币公募基金资金流向 按管理方式：2025 年 5 月，主动管理型基金整体净流出 23 亿美元，被动基 金整体净流入 593 亿美元。 按资产类型：2025 年 5 月美国市场开放式基金中，债券型基金资金净流 入较多，为 224 亿美元，股票型基金资金净流出较多，为 510 亿美元。 2025 年 5 月，美国市场 ETF 中，股票型、债券型 ETF 资金净流入较多， 分别达 490 亿、386 亿美元。 值得注意的是，在股票型基金中，开放式基金与 ETF 资金流向相反，表现 为资金流出开放式基金并流入 ETF。 头部资管机构资金净流入 美国开放式基金规模 Top10 资管机构除了 Fidelity 和 PIMCO 之外均 ...

Macro and Strategy - The fiscal data for the first five months of 2025 shows a decline in both revenue and expenditure, with total public budget revenue at 96,623 billion yuan, down 0.3% year-on-year, and total expenditure at 112,953 billion yuan, up 4.2% year-on-year [9][10] - The high-tech manufacturing macro report indicates that the diffusion index remains unchanged, with specific sectors like dynamic random access memory (DRAM) prices rising, while others like acrylonitrile are declining [10][11] - The macroeconomic report highlights a seasonal decline in high-frequency indicators, suggesting stable economic performance despite fluctuations in investment and consumption sectors [11][12] Industry and Company - The food and beverage industry report emphasizes the emergence of new consumption patterns driven by lifestyle changes, indicating a shift towards more personalized and experience-oriented consumption [23][24] - The report identifies three main consumer groups: Generation Z, the silver-haired population, and the middle class, each with distinct consumption preferences and behaviors [25][26] - Investment recommendations include companies like Wei Long, Salted Fish, Dongpeng Beverage, and Guizhou Moutai, reflecting confidence in the food and beverage sector's growth potential [27] Overseas Market Overview - The US stock market has seen a pullback from high levels, with the S&P 500 down 0.2% and a notable shift of funds towards the financial sector [28][29] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.5%, with significant outflows from the pharmaceutical and consumer sectors, while the machinery sector attracted investment [30][31] Financial Engineering - The REITs market has shown positive performance, with the index rising by 0.87% and a year-to-date increase of 13.2%, indicating strong interest in property and infrastructure-related investments [14][15] - The approval of the first data center REITs marks a significant expansion in the REITs market, reflecting growing interest in digital infrastructure [16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][6] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a turning point in the beef cycle in 2025, with a continued rise in meat prices expected until 2027, driven by supply adjustments and improved market conditions [4][16] - The domestic beef and milk prices have diverged, with the beef-to-milk price ratio reaching a historical high of 20.97, indicating potential for accelerated dairy cow culling and a subsequent recovery in raw milk prices [3][20] - The report highlights that the domestic beef market is expected to tighten due to reduced supply and import pressures, leading to a sustained upward trend in beef prices [11][16] Summary by Sections Beef Market Outlook - The report projects that the beef market will experience a significant recovery starting in 2025, with prices expected to rise until 2027 due to supply adjustments and reduced losses among farmers [5][16] - The current beef price has been under pressure, with a cumulative decline of nearly 25% from the peak in 2023, but the report suggests that the market is poised for recovery [5][10] Dairy Market Outlook - The raw milk market has been underperforming, with prices dropping below cash costs, but improvements are anticipated in the second half of 2025 as supply and demand dynamics shift [17][25] - The report notes that the culling of dairy cows will provide additional beef supply, reinforcing the interconnectedness of the beef and dairy markets [19][20] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies directly benefiting from the beef market recovery, such as Bright Meat Industry, and suggests monitoring dairy farming companies like Yuran Dairy, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu for potential performance recovery [4][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [4][11]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector has shown stronger performance compared to the overall market, with the biopharmaceutical sector leading the gains [1][23]. - The introduction of fertility subsidies and the inclusion of assisted reproduction in health insurance are expected to drive growth in the assisted reproduction industry [2][11]. - The application of AI in medical services is anticipated to enhance efficiency and quality, with leading companies accelerating their AI business layouts [2][20]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The overall A-share market declined by 0.21%, while the biopharmaceutical sector increased by 1.40%, outperforming the market [1][23]. - Within the biopharmaceutical sector, chemical pharmaceuticals rose by 3.53%, while medical devices and traditional Chinese medicine saw declines [1][23]. Policy Impact - Over 20 provinces have implemented fertility subsidy policies, which include cash, housing subsidies, and parental leave, enhancing the willingness to have children [2][11]. - Nearly 30 provinces have included assisted reproduction in health insurance, significantly reducing patient costs and expected to lead to rapid growth in the industry [2][12]. AI Applications in Healthcare - AI is being integrated into various medical service sectors, with companies like Guoshentang and Aier Eye Hospital leading the way in AI applications [14][15]. - The report highlights the potential for AI to improve diagnostic accuracy and operational efficiency in healthcare settings [20][21]. Company Earnings Forecasts and Ratings - Major companies such as Mindray Medical, WuXi AppTec, and Aier Eye Hospital are rated as "Outperform" with strong earnings growth projections [3][32]. - Mindray Medical is expected to benefit from domestic medical infrastructure development and product upgrades, while WuXi AppTec is positioned to gain from the global drug development outsourcing market [32][33]. Recommended Stocks - Mindray Medical, WuXi AppTec, and New Industries are highlighted as key investment opportunities due to their strong market positions and growth potential [32][33]. - Companies like Aier Eye Hospital and Guoshentang are noted for their innovative AI applications that could enhance service quality and operational efficiency [14][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the communication industry [5][56]. Core Insights - Marvell predicts that North American CSP cloud capital expenditures (Capex) will exceed $1 trillion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% from an expected $595 billion in 2025 [2][13]. - The customized ASIC market is expected to grow significantly, from $6 billion in 2023 to $40.8 billion by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 47% [2][14]. - Marvell's data center business is projected to capture a market share of 20% by 2028, with potential revenue reaching $94 billion, driven by high demand for customized chips [19][20]. Summary by Sections Industry News Tracking - Marvell's AI Day highlighted the rapid growth of Capex among North American CSPs, with a revised potential market size for data centers increasing to $94 billion, up from a previous estimate of $75 billion, indicating a 26% growth [13]. - The demand for AI ASICs is rising, with Marvell reporting 18 customer projects involving major players like Tesla and OpenAI [14][19]. Market Performance - The communication index rose by 1.58% this week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.45%, resulting in a relative return of +2.04% [3][45]. - Key sectors such as optical modules, IoT controllers, and optical fiber cables showed strong performance, with respective increases of 4.22%, 1.29%, and 1.20% [45][48]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI development on both cloud and edge sides, while also considering the high dividend value of major telecom operators [4][52]. - Recommended stocks include China Mobile, Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, and Guanghe Communication for the upcoming week [4][52].

Core Insights - Global ESG development is characterized by simultaneous technological innovation and policy improvement, indicating a steady progression towards deep technological innovation, diversified financial tools, and pragmatic policy adjustments in the ESG sector [2][6] - In the carbon neutrality field, Norway has launched the world's first comprehensive CCS value chain "Longship," with an annual storage capacity of 1.5 million tons [2][6][17] - The UK government has allocated £200 million for the Acorn carbon capture project, expected to reduce emissions by 18 million tons annually [2][6] - TerraPower has secured $650 million in funding to advance the construction of advanced nuclear reactors [2][6] - Australia has introduced the world's first sustainable finance taxonomy covering high-emission industries, aiming to guide investments towards green and transitional activities [2][6][13] International ESG Events - Amazon Air has begun using sustainable aviation fuel provided by Neste, with a supply of 7,500 tons planned for 2025 [6][9] - SAP has signed a carbon removal agreement with Climeworks for 37,000 tons of carbon removal credits by 2034 [6][9] - The European Union has simplified carbon border tax rules, exempting 90% of small business imports [6][9] Domestic ESG Developments - In China, the delivery of the world's largest and most efficient methanol reserve car carrier "Anji Hongsheng" marks a significant achievement in carbon neutrality [2][6] - Fujian has released a long-term hydrogen energy industry plan aiming for an annual green hydrogen production capacity of 100,000 tons by 2035 [2][6] - The Shanghai completion of the world's first ship-to-ship liquid CO2 unloading operation establishes a complete carbon cycle system [2][6] Academic Frontiers - Research published in the "International Review of Financial Analysis" indicates that incorporating climate risk factors into financial models can enhance the accuracy of industry volatility predictions [2][4] - A study in "Econometrica" highlights the significant impact of large-scale battery storage on electricity market prices and renewable energy integration [2][4] - Research in "Nature" assesses the impacts of climate change on global agriculture, emphasizing the challenges to food security despite adaptation measures [2][4] Sustainable Finance Initiatives - The Australian sustainable finance taxonomy aims to support the transition to a low-carbon economy and enhance investor confidence in low-carbon investments [13][12] - Volkswagen Bank has successfully issued its first green bond worth €1.5 billion to support electric vehicle financing [6][9] - Goldman Sachs has launched an emerging markets green and social bond ETF to provide investors with exposure to sustainable fixed-income securities [6][9]