Equity – Asia Research 2025 年全球新能源展望 --哪些可行，哪些不可行 Scott Darling, scott.darling@htisec.com Catherine Li, catherine.dy.li@htisec.com 2025 年 6 月 23 日 （本报告为 2025 年 6 月 19 日发布的英文报告的翻译版，以原稿为准） This research report is distributed by Haitong International, a global brand name for the equity research teams of Haitong International Research Limited ("HTIRL"), Haitong Securities India Private Limited ("HSIPL"), Haitong International (Japan) K.K.("HTIJKK"), Haitong International Securities Company Limited ("HTISCL"), a ...

地缘风险上升，美联储继续观望 [Table_Authors] 汪浩(分析师) ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 地缘风险冲击全球资产价格，本周全球股市大多下跌，大宗商品价格多数上涨。美 国经济边际下行，但是在关税前景和中东问题的双重不确定性下，通胀还有很大波 动，美联储货币政策仍将继续等待。 投资要点： 登记编号 S0880521120002 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.23 021-38676666 梁中华(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040019 2025-06-23 [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现。本周（2025.6.13-2025.6.20），全球大类资产价 格中，股票市场大多下跌，大宗商品价格多数上涨。日经 225 上涨 1.50%，新兴市场股票指数上涨 0.05%，标普 500 下跌 0.15%，发达 市场股票指数下跌 0.30%，上证综指下跌 0.51%，恒生指数下跌 1.52%。IPE 布油期货上涨 2.85%，标普-高盛商品 ...

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.23 2025-06-23 全球变局下的金融：促改革、扩开放、重科创 [Table_Authors] 侯欢(分析师) ——2025 年陆家嘴论坛政策解读 本报告导读： 2025 陆家嘴论坛主题为"全球经济变局中的金融开放合作与高质量发 展"，聚焦四点：全球金融治理；更宽领域、大幅度金融开放；资本市场 促进科创和产创融合；一揽子外汇创新政策。 投资要点： 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040074 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 专 题 梁中华(分析师) 021-38676666 登记编号 S0880525040019 [Table_Summary] 2025 陆家嘴论坛于 6 月 18 日上午开幕，主题为"全球经济变局中的 金融开放合作与高质量发展"。 金融体系：关注全球治理。国际货币体系可能继续朝着少数几个主 权货币并存、相互竞争、相互制衡的格局演进。全球跨境支付体系 朝着更加高效、安全、包容、多元的方向发展。国际金融组织需要 提高新兴市场和发展中国家的话语权和代表性。此外，关注结构 ...

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.23 2025-06-23 中央财政发力：扩内需，保民生 [Table_Authors] 侯欢(分析师) ——2025 年 5 月财政数据点评 本报告导读： 5 月央、地层面支出增速分化，前者升，后者落。这体现了中央财政在 扩大内需、保障民生方面积极发力。下半年宏观政策延续积极方向，有 望边际加码。 投资要点： 登记编号 S0880525040074 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 [Table_Summary] 狭义收入：增速边际回落。2025 年 1-5 月，全国一般公共预算收入 同比下降 0.3%，其中 5 月当月同比增速 0.1%，相比 4 月边际回落。 究其原因，除了内需有待提振，也反映了我国 PPI 低位运行。从主 要分项看，个人所得税收入增速回升，保持较高增速；增值税收入 增速明显回升，或主要受消费品以旧换新政策的推动；出口退税收 入增速边际回升，主因或在于，关税摩擦暂缓后，企业抢出口；消 费税收入增速略微回落；企业所得税收入增速小幅下滑。此外，非 税收入增速回落转负，可能对地方收入有所拖累。 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the seasoning industry in Southeast Asia [1]. Core Insights - The Southeast Asian seasoning market is projected to reach USD 20 billion in 2024, with a growth rate of 6.8% expected over the next five years [5]. - Per capita consumption of seasonings in Southeast Asia is estimated at USD 28.8 in 2024, which is lower than China's USD 31.9 [5]. - The average price of seasonings in Southeast Asia is projected to be USD 3.5 in 2024, compared to USD 6 in China [10]. - The region's seasoning market is characterized by a higher consumption share of sauces compared to traditional condiments, indicating a strong reliance on complex flavors in local diets [13]. Summary by Sections Part 1: Southeast Asia Overview - The seasoning industry in Southeast Asia is still in a growth phase, with a per capita consumption of 8.2 kg in 2024, higher than China's 5.3 kg [9]. - The market is diverse, with a wide variety of products including chili sauce, tomato sauce, soy sauce, oyster sauce, and local specialties [13]. Part 2: Country Performance - **Vietnam**: The seasoning industry is expected to generate USD 2.86 billion in revenue in 2024, with a growth rate of 6.7% over the next five years [21]. Local brands dominate the market due to their deep understanding of consumer preferences [27]. - **Indonesia**: The market is projected to reach USD 8.63 billion in 2024, with a growth rate of 6.5% [33]. The industry is driven by urbanization and changing consumption habits, with a notable rise in modern retail channels and e-commerce [33]. - **Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand**: These countries exhibit higher per capita consumption levels compared to others in the region, driven by higher income levels and a demand for high-quality, branded, and imported seasonings [40][43]. Part 3: Investment Opportunities - The Southeast Asian restaurant market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.6% from 2024 to 2029, supporting the expansion of the seasoning industry [47]. - The growth of Chinese cuisine in Southeast Asia is anticipated to foster the consumption of Chinese seasonings, with the international Chinese restaurant market projected to grow from RMB 227.5 billion in 2020 to RMB 359.4 billion by 2024 [50]. - The young population structure in Southeast Asia, particularly in Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam, is expected to drive demand for seasonings as income levels rise [53].

Investment Focus - The market has entered a second phase of broad consolidation, with heightened volatility risks in micro-caps, new consumption, and innovative pharma sectors [1][8] - The Hang Seng Index dropped 1.5% and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.0%, while A-shares also experienced declines [1][8] - Liquidity in the tech sector has been diverted towards innovative pharma and new consumption, but both sectors saw notable pullbacks this week [1][8] Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The sustainability of rallies in new consumption and innovative pharma depends on continued HKD liquidity and steady southbound inflows [2][9] - Recent pullbacks in innovative pharma have increased the AH premium from a 10-year average of 136 to 139, indicating H-shares are underperforming A-shares [2][9] - The liquidity in the Hong Kong market is tightening, influenced by large IPOs and upcoming listings [2][9] Southbound Capital Flows - This week saw a net inflow of HKD 16.3 billion, but only HKD 4.2 billion flowed in during the last three trading days of market decline [3][10] - Significant selling pressure was observed in Pop Mart, with HKD 1.8 billion sold, nearly erasing the past month's inflows [3][10] - Southbound capital mainly flowed into banks, healthcare, and consumer services, with limited outflows in communication services [3][10] A-Shares Performance - The liquor index rebounded 2.7% this week, supported by favorable media commentary, but the overall downtrend remains unaltered [4][11] - The banking sector continued to perform well, rising 2.6%, which helped stabilize large-cap defensives [4][11] - Micro-caps fell 2.2%, underperforming the broader market but still remain at elevated levels [4][11] Market Outlook - The broad consolidation pattern in the market is expected to continue, with high-flying sectors like micro-caps, new consumption, and innovative pharma yet to fully deflate [4][12] - The expiration of the 90-day tariff grace period on July 9 may lead to renewed pressure from U.S.-China negotiations [4][12] - Investors are advised to wait for better entry points, particularly near 21,000 on the Hang Seng Index and 3,200 on the Shanghai Composite [4][12] Short-Term Market Sentiment - Recent U.S. military actions against Iran may extend market downward momentum early next week [5][13] - If the market declines to key support levels, a bottoming rebound may occur [5][13] - The tech sector, after sufficient pullback, is believed to hold stronger rebound potential, particularly in edge AI and application software [5][13]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 22 Jun 2025 中国可选消费化妆品 China (A-share) Discretionary Cosmetics 各大平台 618 大盘及美妆品类战况数据 Data on the 618 overall market and the performance of the beauty category on major platforms 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou 吴颖婕 Mindy Wu yy.kou@htisec.com mindy.yj.wu@htisec.com [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 2025 年 618 大促落下帷幕，整体呈现稳健增长态势。根据星图数据，综合电商、即时零售、社区团购三大领域 2025 年 5 月 13 日-6 月 18 日销售额分别达到 8556 亿元、296 亿元、126 亿元，同比 2024 年 5 月 20 日-2024 年 6 月 18 日增长分别为 15.2%、18.7%、-9.1%。全周期 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 20 Jun 2025 美国消费行业 5 月跟踪报告：多扰动因素仍在，不确定性难消 Multiple disturbance factors are still present, and uncertainty is also present 闻宏伟 Hongwei Wen 肖韦俐 Weili Xiao hongwei.wen@htisec.com wl.xiao@htisec.com [(Table_summary] Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 宏观：抢购潮消退，短期数据回归平稳。（1）整体： 抢购潮消退，信心指数短期反弹。2025 年 5 月美国零售销售 数据为 7154.2 亿美元，环比下降 0.9%，超市场预期的 0.7%降幅。5 月特朗普关税政策部分暂停后，抢购潮消退， 需求回归常态，导致耐用品销售下滑较多。美国 6 月密歇根消费者信心指数升至 60.5，较 5 月的 52.2 大幅增长 15.9%，远超市场预期的 54。关税政策调整，通胀预期缓和，消费者情绪短期恢复。（2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anhui Gujing Distillery Company has been upgraded to OUTPERFORM [2]. Core Views - The baijiu industry maintains its rigid demand attributes, with long-term strategies focused on creating high-quality famous baijiu. Despite facing cyclical adjustments, the social and cultural significance of baijiu ensures its essential demand [3][12]. - The company plans to optimize its product structure and enhance its high-end offerings to capture the upgrading consumer demographic while reinforcing the banquet attributes of its products [3][12]. - Historical revenue and profit performance have been strong, with total revenue and net profit growth rates exceeding 20% from 2021 to 2023. Although growth is expected to slow in 2024, the company remains a leader in the industry [3][13]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2027 are Rmb 23.58 billion, Rmb 24.15 billion, Rmb 25.43 billion, and Rmb 26.79 billion, respectively, with a growth rate of 16% in 2024 [2][10]. - Net profit is expected to be Rmb 5.52 billion in 2024, with a growth rate of 20% [2][10]. - The gross profit margin is projected to remain stable around 79.9% to 79.6% from 2024 to 2027 [10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to maintain a revenue share of over 60% in its home province of Anhui while expanding its market presence in key regions such as Henan and Jiangsu [4][15]. - The focus will be on consolidating its market position in Anhui and gradually expanding to other provinces using a targeted approach [4][15]. Dividend and Valuation - The expected dividend payout ratio for 2024 is 57.5%, with a projected increase to over 70% in 2025, corresponding to a dividend yield exceeding 5.4% [5][16]. - The target price for the company is set at Rmb 191, based on a P/E ratio of 18x for 2025 [5][16].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the aerospace and defense sectors, recommending attention to high-performance structural component manufacturers and defense contractors [5]. Core Insights - The AI technology giants are adjusting their investment pace in data centers, with Microsoft delaying some early projects but expected to resume construction after the fiscal year ends, potentially driving demand in 2025 [2][15]. - The U.S. gas turbine price index increased by 5.3% year-on-year in April 2025, indicating a stable demand in the industrial sector [3][56]. - The 55th Paris Air Show highlighted a strong recovery in the commercial aviation market, with significant orders reflecting the industry's resilience [23][24]. Summary by Sections Data Centers - Major cloud service providers are adjusting their investment strategies, with Microsoft and Amazon accelerating procurement for large clients while Google increases its hosting expenditures [15]. Energy Construction - Michigan regulators are pushing for reliability improvements from Consumers Energy and DTE Electric, emphasizing the need for better vegetation management and equipment replacement [19][20]. - The UK government announced a £14.2 billion investment in a nuclear power plant to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, with a capacity of 3.2GW [21]. Aerospace - The Paris Air Show showcased advancements in military aircraft and green aviation technologies, with a focus on sustainable solutions [23][24]. - The U.S. aircraft engine manufacturing price index remained stable, reflecting consistent demand in the aerospace sector [25][28]. Defense - The report notes significant defense contracts, including the potential $175 billion "Golden Dome" missile defense system, which could become one of the largest defense contracts globally [33][34]. - The EU's new defense funding plan aims to streamline investment rules to enhance member states' defense capabilities by 2030 [33]. Robotics - The global installation of industrial robots in 2023 was 541,302 units, a slight decrease from the previous year, with the automotive sector regaining its position as the largest customer [36][42]. - The U.S. mechanical manufacturing price index showed a modest increase, indicating stable market conditions for industrial equipment [37]. Industrial Equipment - The price index for electric motors and generators in the U.S. rose by 2.5% month-on-month in May 2025, reflecting increased production costs [43]. - China's transformer exports reached 45.8 billion yuan in April 2025, marking a 34% year-on-year increase, indicating strong demand in international markets [65].