Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the petrochemical sector, particularly focusing on private large-scale refining companies [3][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights a transformative period in refining, suggesting a focus on private large-scale refining companies due to structural adjustments in the industry [15]. - The "anti-involution" trend is seen as a potential turning point for the chemical industry, with expectations of improved profitability and competitive dynamics in the coming quarters [16][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of PPI turning positive, which could lead to increased market allocation towards cyclical midstream sectors, benefiting the chemical industry [17]. Industry Overview - The basic chemical industry comprises 493 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 51,121.17 billion and a circulating market value of 45,298.84 billion [3]. - The industry index for the chemical sector is reported at 71.55, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.06% week-on-week and a year-on-year decline of 22.79% [14]. - The report notes that the current operating rate in the chemical industry is around 66.53%, indicating a stable production environment [14]. Price Trends - Key price movements include an 8.0% increase in lithium carbonate and a 7.7% increase in acrylic short fibers, driven by strong demand and supply constraints [6][15]. - The report indicates that the export prices for diammonium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate have risen significantly, with year-to-date increases of 24.4% and 18.1%, respectively [18]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with low valuations and potential for upward movement, including leading chemical firms like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng, as well as companies benefiting from export quotas [17][18]. - Specific companies to watch include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Yihua Chemical, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing structural changes in the industry [15][18].

证 券 研 究 报 告 聚辰股份（688123）2025 年半年报点评 强推（维持） DDR5 SPD 拉货加速，汽车 EEPROM 空间 广阔 事项： ❖ 聚辰股份发布 2025 年半年度报告：公司 2025 年上半年实现营收 5.75 亿元 （YoY+11.69%），实现归母净利润 2.05 亿元（YoY+43.5%），实现扣非归母净 利润 1.77 亿元（YoY+22.47%）。单季度来看，公司 25Q2 实现营收 3.14 亿元 （YoY+17.32%，QoQ+20.20%），实现归母净利润 1.06 亿元（YoY+15.02%， QoQ+6.22%），实现扣非归母净利润 0.96 亿元（YoY+22.57%，QoQ+19.29%）。 评论： 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 8 月 22 日收盘价 公司研究 集成电路 2025 年 08 月 25 日 目标价：112.61 元 当前价：83.28 元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：岳阳 邮箱：yueyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360521120002 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The unprecedented attendance of high-ranking officials, including the General Secretary, at the Tibet Autonomous Region's 60th anniversary celebration highlights the central government's focus on political stability and development in the region[2] - Key projects emphasized include the Yaxia Hydropower Project and the Sichuan-Tibet Railway, which are crucial for regional development and stability[2] - The government aims to promote high-quality development tailored to Tibet's unique characteristics, focusing on agriculture, clean energy, and resource processing[8] Group 2: Policy Developments - New policies regarding personal pension withdrawals were introduced, allowing for additional circumstances under which individuals can access their pensions, including specific medical expenses and unemployment benefits[11] - The government is reinforcing support for PPP projects, allowing local governments to utilize various bonds for financing construction costs of existing projects[4] - The Ministry of Finance announced that the VAT refund policy remains unchanged for key industries, while new conditions and percentages were set for other sectors[20] Group 3: Employment and Consumption - The government is actively working to enhance employment and consumer spending, with recent meetings focusing on expanding sports consumption and promoting the sports industry[10] - The implementation of large-scale equipment updates and consumer product replacement policies has shown significant results in stabilizing investment and expanding consumption[10]

Economic Indicators - The Huachuang WEI index rose to 7.14% as of August 17, 2025, up from 6.52% the previous week, marking an increase of 0.62 percentage points[1] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 8% year-on-year as of August 17, 2025, compared to a previous decline of 4%[1] - The land premium rate rebounded to 10.3% as of August 17, 2025, with a two-week average of 6%[1] Trade and Consumption - Container throughput at Chinese ports maintained a high level, with a four-week cumulative year-on-year increase of 5% as of August 17, 2025[1] - The number of cargo container ships from China to the U.S. decreased by 22.7% year-on-year as of August 23, 2025, compared to an average decline of 5.8% in July[2] - The average daily subway ridership in 27 cities increased by 2.2% year-on-year in the first three weeks of August 2025[1] Commodity Prices - Gold prices rose to $3,373.6 per ounce, an increase of 1.1%, while U.S. oil prices reached $63.7 per barrel, up 1.4%[2] - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 8.9%, marking the largest decline among "anti-involution" commodities[2] Debt and Interest Rates - New special bond issuance reached 3.26 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 74.2% as of August 25, 2025[3] - The yield on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds was reported at 1.3665%, 1.5948%, and 1.7465%, respectively, with increases of 1.59bps, 4.94bps, and 5.74bps compared to August 8, 2025[3]

Investment Strategy - The report highlights that global oil and gas capital expenditures are on a downward trend, leading to a slowdown in supply growth. Since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, capital expenditures in the oil and gas upstream sector have significantly decreased, with a notable drop of nearly 22% from the 2014 peak [9][29]. - The report indicates that major energy companies are facing increasing pressure from policies aimed at carbon reduction, prompting them to shift focus towards energy transition and renewable projects. This trend is expected to continue, resulting in a sustained reduction in capital expenditures for oil and gas [9][29]. - The report notes that the active drilling rig count in the U.S. remains low, which may lead to a slowdown in U.S. oil production growth. The OPEC+ group is also expected to maintain limited supply increases in the coming year [9][29]. Oil Market - The Brent crude oil price is reported at $67.93 per barrel, reflecting a slight increase of 0.03% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil is at $63.13 per barrel, down 0.28% [31][30]. - The report mentions that geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, have contributed to fluctuations in oil prices, with expectations of resilient demand amid limited supply growth [10][29]. Coal Market - The report states that the average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 703 RMB per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.59%. The market is characterized by stable prices, with downstream demand primarily driven by essential purchases [11][12]. - Inventory levels at major ports are reported to be 23.336 million tons, down 1.27% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply situation [11][12]. - The report highlights that domestic coal production is being affected by weather conditions, but overall supply remains sufficient to meet demand from power plants and the chemical industry [11][12]. Coking Coal Market - The report indicates that the coking coal market is currently in a stalemate, with prices for coking coal remaining stable at 1,610 RMB per ton. The market is influenced by fluctuating raw material prices and the profitability of downstream steel enterprises [14][15]. - The report notes that the average daily pig iron production from 247 steel mills is 2.4082 million tons, reflecting a slight increase of 0.04% week-on-week, which supports the demand for coking coal [14][15]. Natural Gas Market - The report highlights a breakthrough in natural gas helium extraction technology in China, with a new device achieving a helium purity level of 6N9. This development is expected to enhance the domestic helium supply [16][17]. - Natural gas prices in the U.S. have decreased, with the NYMEX natural gas average at $2.81 per million British thermal units, down 2.2% week-on-week [16][17]. Oilfield Services - The report emphasizes that the oilfield services sector is expected to maintain its growth due to government policies aimed at increasing oil and gas reserves. The capital expenditure for major oil companies is projected to remain high, supporting the oilfield services industry's outlook [18][19]. - The global active rig count is reported at 1,621, with a slight increase of 21 rigs week-on-week, indicating ongoing activity in the oilfield services sector [18][19].

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|红利资产月报（2025 年 8 月） 8 月延续相对跑输，持续看好红利长期配置 推荐（维持） 价值 ❑ 风险提示：经济出现下滑、改革不及预期、并购整合等资本运作不及预期。 行业研究 交通运输 2025 年 08 月 25 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 122 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 33,240.61 | 3.34 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 28,359.48 | 3.58 | 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Heston Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The Heston model is used to calculate the implied volatility of near-month at-the-money options, serving as a market fear index. It reflects market participants' expectations of future volatility[8] - **Model Construction Process**: The Heston model is a stochastic volatility model where the variance of the asset price follows a mean-reverting square-root process. The model is defined by the following equations: $ dS_t = \mu S_t dt + \sqrt{v_t} S_t dW_t^S $ $ dv_t = \kappa (\theta - v_t) dt + \sigma \sqrt{v_t} dW_t^v $ where: - \( S_t \): Asset price - \( v_t \): Variance of the asset price - \( \mu \): Drift term - \( \kappa \): Rate of mean reversion - \( \theta \): Long-term variance - \( \sigma \): Volatility of variance - \( W_t^S, W_t^v \): Two Wiener processes with correlation \( \rho \)[8] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures market fear and volatility expectations, providing a robust measure of implied volatility[8] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Heston Model - **Implied Volatility Results**: - SSE 50: 20.3% (+2.93% WoW)[10] - SSE 500: 22.36% (+2.82% WoW)[10] - CSI 1000: 25.91% (+4.86% WoW)[10] - CSI 300: 19.21% (+1.12% WoW)[10] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Multi-Signal Shape Timing Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor is based on the frequency and success rate of positive and negative signals derived from historical shape patterns. It aims to predict future highs and lows in the market[12] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Positive signals and negative signals are identified based on historical shape patterns - The success rate of these signals in predicting future highs and lows is calculated as: $ \text{Success Rate} = \frac{\text{Number of Correct Predictions}}{\text{Total Number of Predictions}} \times 100\% $ - For the period from August 11 to August 15, 2025: - Positive signals: 3365 occurrences, average success rate of 70.33% - Negative signals: 3167 occurrences, average success rate of 27.82%[12] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor demonstrates strong predictive power for positive signals, with a high success rate in identifying future market highs[12] 2. Factor Name: Industry Multi-Long-Short Shape Timing Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor is constructed by calculating the difference in the number of long and short signals within industry index constituent stocks. It aims to outperform respective industry indices through timing strategies[15] - **Factor Construction Process**: - For each industry index, the number of long and short signals is calculated daily - If no long or short signals are present, the respective count is set to zero - The difference between long and short signals (scissor difference) is calculated, and the ratio of this difference is used to construct the timing strategy[15] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor outperforms all respective industry indices in backtesting, demonstrating excellent historical performance[15] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Multi-Signal Shape Timing Factor - **Positive Signal Success Rate**: 70.33%[12] - **Negative Signal Success Rate**: 27.82%[12] 2. Industry Multi-Long-Short Shape Timing Factor - **Performance Metrics**: - Outperformed respective industry indices in 100% of backtests[15] - **Examples of Industry Results**: - Machinery: Strategy annualized return 19.72%, maximum drawdown -42.41%; Index annualized return 4.63%, maximum drawdown -72.59%[16] - Retail: Strategy annualized return 19.75%, maximum drawdown -43.39%; Index annualized return -0.9%, maximum drawdown -77.37%[16] - Electronics: Strategy annualized return 22.54%, maximum drawdown -44.99%; Index annualized return 11.13%, maximum drawdown -58.54%[16] --- Additional Observations - **Special Positive Shape Signals**: Specific K-line patterns such as "Golden Needle Bottom," "Rocket Launch," and "Full Red" exhibit strong positive predictive effects[22][23] - **Brokerage Golden Stock Shape Signals**: Combining fundamental analysis with shape-based buy signals significantly improves portfolio returns and reduces maximum drawdowns[27]

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 存单周报（0818-0824）：供需偏不利，定价 修复或有难度 债券周报 2025 年 08 月 24 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：周冠南 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 证券分析师：宋琦 邮箱：songqi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080002 相关研究报告 《【华创固收】政策双周报（0530-0612）：买断 式逆回购前置操作，中美经贸磋商原则上达成框 架 》 2025-06-12 《【华创固收】评级披露仍较缓慢，关注权益轮 动向转债传导——可转债周报 20250609》 2025-06-09 《【华创固收】央行开始买债了吗？——债券周 报 20250608》 2025-06-08 《【华创固收】存单周报（0602-0608）：资金预 期有所缓和，关注存单配置价值》 2025-06-08 《【华创固收】关注震荡市场利差被动走阔的加 仓机会——信用周报 20250607》 2025-06-07 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 供给方面 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][25]. Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in operational quality and successful expansion of customized storage clients. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 575 million yuan, up 11.31% year-on-year [2][10]. - The demand for NOR Flash in the consumer sector has significantly increased, and the company is making steady progress in expanding its customized storage business in various fields such as AI mobile phones, AI PCs, and automotive applications [10]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported: - Revenue: 4.15 billion yuan (YoY +15%) - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 575 million yuan (YoY +11.31%) - Non-recurring net profit: 544 million yuan (YoY +14.99%) [2][10]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved: - Revenue: 2.24 billion yuan (YoY +13.09%, QoQ +17.4%) - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 341 million yuan (YoY +9.17%, QoQ +45.27%) [2][10]. Future Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve the following financial metrics: - Total revenue (million yuan): 7,356 in 2024, 9,755 in 2025, 12,158 in 2026, and 15,250 in 2027 - Net profit attributable to shareholders (million yuan): 1,103 in 2024, 1,559 in 2025, 2,153 in 2026, and 2,636 in 2027 - Earnings per share (yuan): 1.66 in 2024, 2.35 in 2025, 3.24 in 2026, and 3.97 in 2027 [4][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on increasing its market share and has successfully captured opportunities in various sectors, including automotive, consumer electronics, and computing. The strategy emphasizes customized storage solutions and leveraging the growing demand in AI-related applications [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [22]. Core Insights - The company's profitability improvement logic continues to be validated, with multiple business segments showing growth potential. The company is expected to experience rapid revenue growth in the near future [1][7]. - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 37.549 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 7.01%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.417 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 15.65% [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 21.245 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 0.83% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 30.3%, with a net profit of 949 million yuan, marking a year-over-year increase of 12.12% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 102.2% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 104.317 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-over-year growth rate of 3.3%. By 2027, the revenue is expected to reach 121 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 9.1% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 3.535 billion yuan in 2025, with a significant year-over-year growth of 32.6%. By 2027, this figure is expected to rise to 5.283 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 23.8% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.76 yuan in 2024 to 1.51 yuan by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3]. Business Segment Analysis - The smart acoustic assembly business experienced a revenue decline of 34.92% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to product iteration cycles. However, the upcoming release of AirPods Pro 3 is expected to boost sales in the second half of the year [7]. - The precision components business reported a revenue of 7.604 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-over-year increase of 20.54%, with a gross margin of 23.49% [7]. - The smart hardware segment achieved a revenue of 20.341 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-over-year increase of 2.49%, driven by the successful progress of high-margin AI glasses products [7]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading manufacturer in the XR industry, with expectations to benefit from industry growth and increased demand for AI-enabled products [7]. - The global AI smart glasses market is projected to see significant growth, with sales expected to reach 1.52 million units in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 533% [7]. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend through its comprehensive product offerings and technological advancements [7].