证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 2026 年依然是强流动性支撑的年份 ——可转债周报 20251209 ❖ 权益市场有呵护政策也有储备增量资金，预期资金流动性充裕。自 2024 年下 半年以来，资本市场呵护政策频出，权益市场各大宽基指数稳健增长，市场信 心逐渐积累。对应的则是公募基金管理规模快速增长，截至 2025Q2 末已较去 年同期增长 10.65%。此外，相对稳健的保险资金在 2025H2 也开始显著增加对 股票市场的投资，其中财险和人身险对股票投资额由 2024 年末的 2.43 万亿元 增加至 3.62 万亿元。 债券研究 展望 2026 年，一方面，险资（财险+人身险）可运用资金余额中股票投资仅占 10%；两融余额虽然看似已增长较多，但从担保比例及成交额占比看依然在相 对中性的区间内。另一方面，12 月 5 日国家金融监督管理总局发布通知，下 调保险公司相关业务风险因子；12 月 6 日，证监会主席吴清表示监管层面将 强化分类监管，对优质机构优化评价指标、适度拓宽资本空间与杠杆上限。监 管机构持续释放宽松信号且市场剩余增量资金也充足，预期 2026 年权益市场 流动性将延续强支撑。 ❖ 股债 ...

Strategy - The technology competition under the Kondratiev wave continues to open up valuation ceilings, with a focus on "bottleneck" and future industry high ground [14][15] - The current valuation of China's science and technology innovation is still lower than that during the internet boom in the 1990s, indicating potential for further upward movement [14][18] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes seizing the high ground of technological development, focusing on key areas such as integrated circuits and advanced manufacturing [14][19] Electronics - The scaling law remains effective, with the introduction of multi-modal and agent models expected to accelerate AI computing demand [8][15] - The PCB industry is anticipated to maintain high growth due to its heavy asset nature and product structure optimization, which can lead to non-linear performance improvements for companies [8][15] Computer - New models are being launched intensively, marking a shift in AI competition towards "strong reasoning + native multi-modal" capabilities [9][15] - Significant releases include Google's Gemini 3 and DeepSeek V3.2, which enhance multi-modal understanding and practical applications [9][15] Media - Long-term optimism for the acceleration of AI product applications and commercialization, with a focus on AI agents, companionship, multi-modal applications, education, and edge AI [9][15] Humanoid Robots - The industry is transitioning from concept validation to commercialization, with companies that have growth potential in key components or specific solutions likely to benefit [10][15] - Investment opportunities are identified in the incremental component sector, with a focus on aesthetic preferences in the market [10][15] Automotive - The launch of Horizon Robotics' HSD and J6P models marks a significant step in mass production, with companies like WeRide and Pony.ai also making strides in the market [10][15] - Recommendations include focusing on luxury car opportunities with strong product pipelines and valuation elasticity, as well as autonomous driving technologies [10][15] Selected Portfolio - The December selected portfolio includes upstream production tools like Zhuoyi Information, upstream computing infrastructure such as Jingwang Electronics, and downstream applications like Alibaba [11][15]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 非农报告之外的美国就业市场观察 主要观点 核心观点：政府停摆致数据断更和 AI 技术可能颠覆就业，引发了市场对于非 农报告"看不见"的就业市场信息的关注。本期海外周报主要观察美国就业报 告之外的就业市场信息，我们发现： 1）非农尚看不到迹象的潜在就业"新"趋势：目前来看，无论是货币政策制 定者，还是学术与市场研究领域，对 AI 对就业影响的前景均判断不明。货币 政策层面，政策制定者正在密切关注当前 AI 发展产生的"双重效应"，即 AI 促进经济产出增长的同时可能又压制了就业。从部分地方联储的调查或研究来 看，当前 AI 对就业市场的净影响仍然有限，但前景仍不明朗，存在高度不确 定性。学术研究层面，对于 AI 影响就业的方向尚无定论，部分研究证实 AI 的 就业替代效应，也有研究指出 AI 的就业创造效应。市场研究层面，多数聚焦 于当下或短期，认为 AI 对整体就业影响有限但行业异质性显著，但具体对行 业影响如何也存在分歧。 2）非农之外观察就业的"新"指标：目前从 6 个跟踪指标来看，美国劳动力 市场的近期（10-11 月）趋势是继续慢性趋弱：劳动力需求走弱（职位空缺数 ...

公司研究 当前价：21.68 元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 证 券 研 究 报 告 苏州规划（301505）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 拟收购东进航科，与低空数字化先锋军共建城市立体 规划新蓝图——华创交运|低空 60 系列研究（二十五） 建筑设计及服务Ⅲ 2025 年 12 月 08 日 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 公司基本数据 | 总股本(万股) | 11, ...

宏观研究 宏观快评 2025 年 12 月 08 日 华创证券研究所 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 等待"两大会"召开——政策周观察第 58 期 近一周，政策出台不多，主要有以下内容。短期内，关注中央政治局会议和中 央经济工作会议"两大会"召开。 1、12 月 1 日，《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《推进党的自我革命 要做到"五个进一步到位"》。文章中，习近平总书记指出"对党的自我革命认 识要进一步到位……我们党进行自我革命，刀刃向内、激浊扬清、刮骨疗毒， 非但不会影响党的形象和威信，反而能够提高党的形象和威信；非但不会挫伤 党员干部的积极性，反而能够更广泛更充分地调动党员干部的积极性；非但不 会影响经济社会发展，反而能够为高质量发展提供坚强政治保证"，"党员干部 增强党性要进一步到位"，"权力规范运行要进一步到位"，"从严监督执纪要进 一步到位"，"落实管党治党责任要进一步到位"。 2、资本市场：1）12 月 5 日，国家金融监管总局调整保险公司相关业务风险 因子，"针对保险公司投资的沪深 300 指数成分股、中证红利低波动 100 指数 成分股以及科创板股票的风险因子，根据持仓时间进行了差异 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the media industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][40]. Core Views - The media sector is anticipated to experience a rebound, particularly in gaming and AI applications, with significant growth potential in these areas. The report emphasizes the importance of both sharpness and allocation in the current market environment [3][6]. - The gaming market is highlighted as entering a favorable valuation zone, with specific companies like Giant Network and Century Huatong recommended for investment [6][16]. - The film market is recovering, with the total box office reaching approximately 437.06 billion yuan, which is about 78% of the 2019 level, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [19][20]. Market Performance Review - The media sector index fell by 3.86% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.28%, resulting in a relative underperformance of 5.14% [9][10]. - The total market capitalization of the media sector is approximately 19,595.28 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 17,850.96 billion yuan [3]. Gaming Market Insights - Tencent's products dominate the iOS gaming market, with titles like "Peace Elite" and "Love and Deep Space" performing strongly [16]. - Upcoming game releases include "Rust" and "PUBG: BLACK BUDGET," which are expected to generate significant interest [18]. Film Market Overview - The film "Zootopia 2" has achieved a box office of nearly 23 billion yuan within six days, with projections suggesting it could help the total annual box office exceed 500 billion yuan [27]. - The total box office for the year has reached 437.06 billion yuan, with a recovery rate of approximately 78% compared to 2019 [19][22]. Important News and Company Announcements - The establishment of the first micro-short drama export base in Shanghai marks a significant development in the media industry [27]. - Tencent's Magic Cube Studio celebrated its 15th anniversary, announcing major updates for several IP titles, indicating ongoing innovation in the gaming sector [28].

Investment Strategy - Crude oil supply is limited while demand remains resilient, leading to expectations of fluctuating prices in the future [9][10] - The global oil and gas capital expenditure trend is declining, with a significant reduction of nearly 22% from the 2014 peak to 2021 [9][10] - Major energy companies are cautious with capital expenditures due to long-term low oil prices and increasing decarbonization pressures [9][10] - OPEC+ has announced no further production increases for the next year, indicating limited supply growth [9][10] Crude Oil - Brent crude oil spot price is $64.58 per barrel, up 0.87% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil spot price is $59.33 per barrel, up 1.23% week-on-week [10][32] - The market is responding to geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which have contributed to price fluctuations [10][32] Coal - The average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 802.7 yuan per ton, down 3.32% week-on-week, indicating weak demand and rising inventories [11][12] - Total coal inventory at major ports in the Bohai Rim reached 27.61 million tons, up 3.77% week-on-week, while southern ports reported 6.426 million tons, up 2.57% [11][12] - Domestic key power plants reported a daily coal consumption of 4.77 million tons, down 3.44% week-on-week, with coal inventory at 13.01 million tons, up 2.09% [11][12] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are declining due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with the price of main coking coal at 1,630 yuan per ton, down 2.40% week-on-week [13][14] - Steel mills are showing cautious purchasing behavior due to lower profitability, impacting coking coal demand [13][14] Natural Gas - The EU has reached an agreement to phase out Russian gas imports by 2027, which may impact global gas supply dynamics [15][16] - The average price of NYMEX natural gas is $4.95 per million British thermal units, up 7.7% week-on-week, while European gas prices have decreased [15][16] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services sector is expected to maintain its growth due to government policies supporting energy security and capital expenditures [17][18] - The number of active drilling rigs globally is reported at 1,800, with a slight decrease in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions [17][18]

证 券 研 究 报 告 基础化工行业周报（20251201-20251207） 本周 Henry 天然气、乙烷、辛醇价格涨幅居前 行业研究 基础化工 2025 年 12 月 08 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：郑轶 邮箱：zhengyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522100004 证券分析师：王鲜俐 邮箱：wangxianli@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522080004 证券分析师：吴宇 邮箱：wuyu1@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524010002 证券分析师：申起昊 邮箱：shenqihao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030001 证券分析师：陈俊新 邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 494 | 0.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 54,965.58 | 4.60 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the consumer services industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The integration pace in the cultural tourism industry is accelerating, with significant mergers and acquisitions indicating a shift from fragmented growth to resource optimization and brand specialization [2] - The acquisition of Junting Hotel by Hubei Cultural Tourism Group for approximately 1.5 billion yuan highlights the trend of state-owned enterprises and leading private companies enhancing their core competitiveness through asset integration [6] - The tourism sector is increasingly recognized as a vital driver of domestic demand and consumption, with a strategic role in local economic development [6] Industry Basic Data - The consumer services industry comprises 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.8 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 457.1 billion yuan [3] Relative Index Performance - The consumer services sector experienced a decline of 0.65% this week, while the overall market indices showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 index increasing by 1.28% [4][9] Important Announcements - Junting Hotel has become a subsidiary of Hubei Cultural Tourism Group, marking a significant shift in ownership and control [33] - Meituan reported a revenue of 95.5 billion yuan for Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 2%, but faced substantial losses in its core local business segment [34] - Yadu Group achieved a revenue of 2.628 billion yuan in Q3, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38.4% [34] Future Shareholder Meetings - Several companies in the consumer services sector have scheduled shareholder meetings in December, including ST United and Xi'an Tourism [36]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】第 49 期 出口高频维持韧性 ❖ 每周经济观察： （一）景气向上 1、外贸：港口集装箱吞吐量同比维持高位。截至 11 月 30 日，我国港口集装 箱吞吐量环比-0.3%，上周环比为+5.4%，四周同比微幅回落至 9.6%，上周为 10%，10 月 26 日四周同比为 6.6%。 2、耐用品消费：乘用车零售周度增速转正，但月度增速转负。截至 11 月 30 日当周，乘用车零售同比增速+2%，前值-7%。乘联分会发布初步统计数据， 11 月全国乘用车市场零售同比-7%。10 月全月同比为+5.8%。 3、地产：住宅销售降幅缩窄，二手房价格暂时止跌。我们统计的 67 个城市， 12 月前 5 日，商品房成交面积同比为-26%。11 月同比为-34%。10 月同比为- 26%。11 月 24 日当周，二手房挂牌价，一线和全国均持平。今年以来，一线 城市二手房挂牌价累计下跌 5.1%，全国累计下跌 5.5%。 4、价格：国内外大宗品价格普涨，农产品价格普涨。本周南华综合指数、RJ/CRB 商品价格指数分别上涨 1%、1.5%。蔬菜批价上涨 2.4%，鸡蛋批价上涨 1. ...