证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车行业跟踪报告 2Q 板块财报前瞻：2Q25 销量高增，板块财 推荐（维持） 务增长预期乐观 乘用车销量：预计 2Q25 批发、零售均实现两位数左右同环比增长 行业研究 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张程航 电话：021-20572543 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360519070003 证券分析师：李昊岚 邮箱：lihaolan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524010003 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 232 | 0.03 | | 总市值(亿元) | 51,073.47 | 4.91 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 32,514.94 | 3.97 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -0.7% | 12.4% | 33.6% | | 相对表现 | -3.4% | 9.2% | 20.1% | 汽车 2025 年 07 月 04 日 -9% 9% 27% 45 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 供需有待 【宏观快评】 经济或呈现低波运行——6 月经济数据前瞻 主要观点 核心观点：展望 6月及二季度，经济或呈现低波运行特征。首先，从GDP数 据来看，受益于国内的两新政策、出口的韧性，生产端保持较快增长。预计 2 季度全部工业生产增速 5.9%左右，预计 2季度 GDP增速在 5.3%左右，接近 1季度的 5.4%。其次，受益于政府债发行的前值，社融增速稳中有升，预计6 月末抬升至 8.8%左右。再次，市场较为关注的出口数据，增速或边际放缓， 但仍有韧性，预计 6 月出口同比在 3.5%左右。 后续来看，关注重心在可能带来经济走势出现变化的几个方向。包括美国与各 国的关税谈判进展、地产的库存去化、"反内卷"在供给端的约束等。 一、GDP：预计 2 季度 GDP 增速在 5.3%左右 主要原因来看：1）受益于设备更新、以旧换新、出口韧性，工业生产在 2 季 度维持偏强态势。预计 2 季度全部工业（规上+规下）增速在 5.9%左右。2） 受益于以旧换新，零售环节增速继续回升，预计批发零售业2季度增速为6.8% 左右，高于 1 季度的 5.8%。3）信息业与租赁服务业，预计维持高增长。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the major indices experienced an upward trend in the second quarter of 2025, with the ChiNext Composite Index leading with a 5.80% increase and the National Index 2000 rising by 4.41% [1][12][13] - In terms of industry performance, only a few sectors showed negative returns, with the comprehensive financial sector increasing by 32.16% and the national defense and military industry rising by 16.03% [1][13][14] - The report highlights that the timing models performed excellently in Q2 2025, particularly the price-volume resonance V3 model, low volatility blade model, and characteristic volume model [1][6][18] Group 2 - The report identifies sectors to watch for Q3 2025, including oil and petrochemicals, automobiles, and electronics, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [3][6] - The report emphasizes the use of multi-dimensional models for market timing, industry rotation, and stock selection strategies, which are based on estimated fund positions and over/underweighting [7][18] - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various timing models, including short-term, medium-term, and long-term strategies, showcasing their historical performance and future predictions [6][18][19]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the issuance of wealth management products, with 3,574 new products launched during the period from June 14 to June 27, 2025, compared to 2,530 in the previous period, indicating a strong market recovery [6][9] - Fixed income products dominate the new issuance landscape, accounting for 95.41% of new wealth management products, reflecting a conservative risk appetite among investors [19] - The report notes a shift towards diversified investment products, with some institutions beginning to explore equity and derivative assets to enhance returns while maintaining stability [19] Summary by Sections 1. Wealth Management Products - During the period from June 14 to June 27, 2025, the market saw a total of 3,574 new wealth management products, a significant increase from the previous period [9] - The majority of new products (84.28%) were issued by wealth management companies, with an average performance benchmark of 2.64%, the highest among all types of institutions [9] - The structure of new products remains stable, with fixed income products leading at 3,410 new issues, representing 95.41% of the total [19] - Short to medium-term products (3-6 months and 6 months-1 year) are favored by investors, indicating a preference for liquidity alongside returns [20] 2. Fund Products - A total of 91 new public funds were established during the reporting period, with a total issuance scale of 786 million units, a 96.75% increase from the previous period [25] - Bond funds led the new issuance with 344.50 million units, although their market share slightly decreased to 43.83% [26] - The report notes a resurgence in various fund types, including QDII, REITs, and FOF funds, indicating a recovery in the market [30] 3. Insurance Products - The market saw the issuance of 38 new insurance products during the reporting period, continuing a trend of moderate growth [39] - Life insurance products saw a decline in new issuances, while annuity products surged, becoming the dominant category with a market share of 57.9% [39] - Regulatory changes are influencing the structure of insurance products, particularly in the area of dividend insurance, which is expected to remain a key focus for companies [38]

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券分析】 2025H1 可转债复盘：一波三折，强势表现 宏观叙事下随正股波动，稳定性更胜一筹 2025年上半年，转债在多重因素驱动下呈"N"型向上波动。横向比较来看， 转债指数在 2025 上半年较主要股指均表现强势，估值较 2024 年底抬升 3.58pct。从指数走势来看，2025年上半年转债市场两起两落，可根据事件驱动 和表现划分为三个阶段，主要包括2024年底到春节前转债资金面支撑下的估 值抬升、春节后至三月底的科技板块主题热、4月初至6月关税扰动波折下转 债随权益市场回调与反弹。 转债条款："老龄化"下更多的强赎退出，下修触发次数回落。在年初主题热 点催化下转债平价结构快速修复，较多转债实现强赎条款触发，上半年共计57 只转债退市，合计 96只转债触发强赎，其中36只转债公告实施赎回，强赎概 率 37.5%，较 2024年的 42.4%小幅回落。下修触发次数回落，下修概率降低。 上半年合计 218只转债 365次触发下修条款，有42支转债公告提议下修共计 43 次，提议下修占触发下修概率 11.78%，较 2024 年降低 6.41pct。此外，回 售期的转债数 ...

Group 1: Fund Flow and Market Trends - The supply side of funds has slightly contracted, with public equity issuance recovering in the past two weeks, while leveraged funds saw a significant net inflow of 265 billion CNY, up from a previous outflow of 29 billion CNY[8][24] - Equity financing surged by 543.5 billion CNY in the last two weeks, indicating strong demand, while southbound funds continued to flow in with a net inflow of 259.5 billion CNY[8][24][82] - The net inflow of retail investor funds in the A-share market was 633 billion CNY, a decrease of 402.1 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it at the 19.2% percentile over the past five years[9] Group 2: Trading Activity and Sector Performance - Trading congestion metrics indicate that the financial and TMT sectors are on the rise, while most cyclical sectors are cooling down; for instance, the brokerage sector's heat index rose by 34 percentage points to 39%[8][9] - The insurance sector increased by 17 percentage points to 34%, while the chemical sector decreased by 11 percentage points to 79%[8][9] - The computer sector's trading heat rose by 16 percentage points to 67%, and the communication sector increased by 7 percentage points to 68%[8][9] Group 3: ETF and Stock Buyback Trends - Stock-type ETFs experienced a net outflow of 197 billion CNY, significantly larger than the previous inflow of 139.8 billion CNY, placing the current sentiment at a low point[50][51] - The amount of stock buybacks increased to 21.1 billion CNY from 15.4 billion CNY, which is at the 61% percentile over the past three years[54][55] Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - The search interest for Kuaishou's A-shares has surged, driven by the recent peak in the Shanghai Composite Index, which reached a new high for the year[9][135] - The public fund concentration trend has weakened, shifting towards value styles and focusing on consumption and cyclical industries, with 30% of the top public fund stocks leading the gains in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and military sectors[9]

合前 11 2 证券研究报告 【每周经济观察】 关税战下的美国抢进口:规模、区域和结构 海外周报第 96 期 主要观点 4月美国对全球普征基准的10%对等关税,与此同时,一系列重磅关税虽然豁 免但只是暂停,挥之不去的关税阴影驱使美国进口商抢进口。当下我们回顾前 四个月美国进口数据,重点解析"抢什么商品"、"从哪抢进口"两大核心问题, 从而或可为后续美国进口形势展望提供分析基础。 (一)加了多少关税? 左 观 机 元 每周经济观察 2025年07月 03日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:张瑜 电话:010-66500887 邮箱:zhangyu3@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360518090001 证券分析师:夏雪 邮箱:xiaxue@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360524070004 相关研究报告 在分析抢进口之前,首先一个小问题是,美国有效关税率究竟提高了多少?有 效关税率定义为关税收入/进口额,4月,美国整体进口有效关税率飙升至 7%, 2024年为 2.3%,其中,对中国有效关税率升至 37.5%,3月为25%,2024年 为 10.6%;对中国以外地区有效关税率升至3.9%;3月为1.8 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 "人形机器人的 Optimus 时刻"系列（十一） 推荐（维持） 精密减速器：群雄逐鹿，新的篇章 三大行业共振，减速器迎来全新机遇。 1、工业机器人：减速器最大的下游应用场景。据睿工业，2024年我国市场用 于工业机器人的精密减速器出货量约为109.7万台。从长期来看，工业机器人 向智能化与柔性化方向升级，以及国产技术在高端应用场景（如汽车制造等） 中的不断突破，将持续推动精密减速器市场实现稳步增长。 2、工业母机：减速器最核心的下游应用场景。当前我国高端机床的核心零部 件主要依赖日本及德国品牌，国产零部件使用率较低。从长远看，实现中高端 机床零部件的国产化率提升是实现自主可控关键。我们拆解各类型机床对应减 速器配置数量，测算 2024 年我国机床领域减速器总需求量为 59.8 万台。 3、人形机器人：减速器最潜力的下游应用场景。目前人形机器人领域主流的 减速器配置方案为"谐波减速器+行星减速器"的组合。特斯拉方案单Optimus 需要 16个谐波减速器，对应价值量在 2万元左右；国产全旋转模组方案，单 台机器人减速器价值量约为 3 万元左右。 三大类别看目前国产减速器厂商布 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a year-on-year increase in net profit of 70%-100% for the first half of 2025, with a midpoint estimate of 5.22 billion yuan, reflecting an 85% increase [7]. - The emerging business segment, particularly the subsidiary focusing on aviation power systems, is projected to benefit from the booming low-altitude economy and evolving international dynamics, leading to significant revenue growth [2]. - The financial forecasts for the company show a robust growth trajectory, with total revenue expected to reach 13.94 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 32.7% year-on-year increase [3]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 10.51 billion yuan, 13.94 billion yuan, 16.09 billion yuan, and 18.52 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 28.9%, 32.7%, 15.4%, and 15.1% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 461 million yuan in 2024, increasing to 919 million yuan in 2025, with a remarkable growth rate of 99.2% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 0.40 yuan in 2024 to 0.80 yuan in 2025, reflecting the company's improving profitability [3]. Business Performance - The company's traditional business segments are experiencing high demand, particularly in motorcycle engines and general machinery, which are expected to drive revenue growth [7]. - The integration of the company with its joint venture, Longxin General, is anticipated to create synergies that could enhance overall performance [7]. - The aviation power segment reported a revenue of 160 million yuan in 2024, marking a 71.74% increase year-on-year, with expectations for further improvement in 2025 [2].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 关税战下的美国抢进口：规模、区域和结构 ——海外周报第 96 期 主要观点 从两个视角看：1）主要区域进口增速。从这个角度看，今年以来进口暴涨的 拉动主要源自欧元区、东盟、中国台湾地区、澳大利亚和印度。1-4月美国进 口累计同比（按人口普查局口径，后文同）为 19.3%，上述 5区域合计拉动美 国进口同比 11个点。4月美国整体进口增速下滑至 1.9%，上述 5区域中，东 盟、中国台湾地区和印度仍然保持较强拉动，合计约为5.7个点，而欧元区拉 动转负，拖累约 0.1 个点。 2）主要区域进口空运占比。从这个角度看，今年以来抢进口最强的（2025Q1 相比于 2024年空运进口占比提升最多的）或是澳大利亚、欧元区、印度、越 南（或东盟整体）、中国台湾地区。与此同时，上述五个经济体中，4月单月空 运进口占比相比 2025Q1下降的主要有澳大利亚、欧元区，或反映这两个区域 抢进口动能边际衰减。 核心观点：四问美国抢进口：1）美国有效关税率究竟提高了多少？4月升至 7%，2024 年为 2.3%，其中，对中国为 37.5%（2024 年为 10.6%），对中国以 外 ...