Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" with an expectation that the industry index will exceed the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [53]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the prices of broilers and chicks have reached a bottom and are beginning to rebound, although the losses in the breeding sector have widened [1][2]. - In July, the loss from broiler farming was 2.59 yuan per bird, and the loss from hatcheries was 0.23 yuan per bird, both showing an increase in loss compared to previous months [2][43]. - The report highlights a recovery in chick prices after hitting a low of 0.73 yuan per chick, with a subsequent increase of 0.10 yuan per chick over 15 days due to supply shortages and rising broiler prices [8][11]. Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 1,331.25 billion yuan, with 101 listed companies [3]. - The absolute performance of the industry over the past month is 3.5%, with a relative performance of 3.9% [4]. Price Trends - The average price of white feather broilers in July was 3.21 yuan per kg, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 12.30% and a month-on-month decrease of 8.55% [11]. - The average price of chicken products was 8535.88 yuan per ton, down 8.94% year-on-year and 3.04% month-on-month [11]. Sales Performance - In July, the sales volume of broiler meat for Shengnong Development was 15.87 million tons, up 22.83% year-on-year, while the sales volume for Xiantan Co. was 5.96 million tons, up 31.28% year-on-year [19][28]. - The sales revenue for Yisheng Co. in July was 1.01 billion yuan, down 46.39% year-on-year, while Shengnong Development's chicken meat sales revenue was 14.90 billion yuan, up 14.44% year-on-year [14][15]. Production Capacity - The average stock of grandparent stock chickens in July 2025 was 1.4 million sets, an increase of 7.3% year-on-year, while the stock of backup grandparent stock chickens decreased by 8.5% year-on-year [32][33]. - The average price of parent stock chicks in July was 47.66 yuan per set, with a slight decrease to 47.21 yuan per set in the latest week [35][37].

证 券 研 究 报 告 客观理性看待居民存款搬家进股市 2025年8月29日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 • 上证指数突破3500点以后，各类市场投资者与媒体对居民存款搬家进入股市进行了充分的讨论，其中不乏有声音认为居民存款 搬家仍处于初始阶段。目前上证指数已突破3800点，市盈率PE_TTM达到16.6倍，处过去十年97%分位（过去二十年71%分 位），意味着当前股票已经告别了最便宜的时刻，故整体居民存款搬家处于何种阶段对往后市场趋势、牛市节奏判断以及健康 程度具有重要的影响。 • 华创策略团队于2024年11月《再通胀牛市》即明确提出居民存款搬家的故事，且更类似于农村包围城市的过程，即随着互联 网尤其是短视频平台的快速普及，股市热度得以在居民间得到快速扩 ...

Group 1: Economic Potential of Sports Events - The recent "Scottish Super League" generated nearly 38 billion in revenue from tourism, travel, dining, accommodation, and sports within just six rounds of matches, highlighting the immense potential of sports economics[1] - The Chinese sports consumption as a percentage of income is approximately 0.84%, comparable to the average of 0.85% in developed economies like the US, UK, Japan, and South Korea[2] - The per capita sports consumption expenditure in China is less than 40 USD, which is about 1/6 of the average in major developed countries[4] Group 2: Structure of Sports Consumption - In 2020, over 60% of China's sports consumption was on physical goods, significantly higher than the EU's 35% and close to the US's 2005 level[5] - Spending on services such as watching events and fitness only accounted for 11% of total sports consumption in China, compared to about 20% in the US in 2005[5] - The sports service sector in China, particularly in events, lags behind the US, where the value added from sports events accounted for 32% of the sports industry in 2014, while in China it was only 2% in 2023[3] Group 3: Economic and Employment Impact of Sports Events - The estimated contribution of sports events to China's GDP is around 0.1%, which is significantly lower than the 0.4%-0.5% seen in Europe and the US[6] - Employment in the sports industry in China accounts for about 0.15% of the total workforce, lower than the 0.5% in the UK and US, indicating a need for improvement in employment absorption capacity[8] - The correlation between income levels and sports consumption is strong, with a correlation coefficient of 0.88 across 23 sample provinces and cities, suggesting that increasing income is crucial for boosting sports consumption[4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [37]. Core Insights - NVIDIA reported FY26Q2 revenue of $46.7 billion, a 56% year-over-year increase and a 6% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by strong demand in data centers and AI applications [2][7]. - The data center revenue reached $41.1 billion, reflecting a 56% year-over-year growth and a 5% quarter-over-quarter growth, primarily due to the demand for large language models and AI applications [3][7]. - The company expects FY26Q3 revenue to be approximately $54 billion, with GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins projected at 73.3% and 73.5%, respectively [4][9]. Summary by Sections 1. FY26Q2 Performance Overview - NVIDIA's FY26Q2 revenue was $46.7 billion, with data center revenue at $41.1 billion, both showing significant growth [2][7]. - The gross margins for the quarter were 72.4% (GAAP) and 72.7% (non-GAAP), with a slight adjustment due to the reversal of inventory provisions [2][3]. 2. Business Segment Performance - **Data Center**: Revenue of $41.1 billion, up 56% year-over-year, driven by AI applications and the Blackwell architecture [3][7]. - **Gaming**: Revenue of $4.287 billion, a 49% year-over-year increase, supported by strong sales of Blackwell products [8]. - **Professional Visualization**: Revenue of $601 million, up 32% year-over-year, driven by sales in AI workflows and real-time graphics [8]. - **Automotive**: Revenue of $586 million, a 69% year-over-year increase, primarily due to strong demand for autonomous driving platforms [8]. 3. FY26Q3 Guidance - The company anticipates FY26Q3 revenue of approximately $54 billion, with gross margins expected to remain stable [4][9]. 4. Conference Insights - The growth in AI applications is expected to drive significant demand for computational power, with NVIDIA's platforms positioned to capture a substantial share of the $3-4 trillion AI infrastructure opportunity by the end of the decade [11][22]. - The company is focusing on enhancing performance per watt to maximize revenue potential in energy-constrained data centers [14][16].

证 券 研 究 报 告 启明星辰（002439）2025 年中报点评 强推（维持） 营收短期承压，推进"AI+" 事项： 公司发布 2025 年半年度报告：2025 年上半年，实现营业收入 11.33 亿元， 同比下滑 28.03%；归母净利润亏损 0.93 亿元，去年同期亏损 1.82 亿元；归 母扣非净利润亏损 1.64 亿元，去年同期亏损 1.00 亿元。 评论： 风险提示：行业竞争加剧；政策推动不及预期；产品应用不及预期。 | 目标价：21.38 | 元 | | --- | --- | | 当前价：17.48 | 元 | 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 证券分析师：胡昕安 邮箱：huxinan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080009 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 3,315 | 3,237 | 3,6 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 渝农商行（601077）2025 年半年报点评 推荐（维持） 负债成本管控成效显著，资产质量稳定 目标价：7.8 元/7.02 港元 事项： 8 月 26 日，渝农商行披露 2025 年半年度报告，上半年实现营业收入 147.41 亿 元，同比增长 0.46%；实现归母净利润 76.99 亿元，同比增长 4.63%。不良贷 款率 1.17%，较年初下降 1bp；拨备覆盖率 355.58%，较年初下降 7.86 个百分 点。 评论： 公司研究 农商行 2025 年 08 月 29 日 当前价：6.34 元/5.76 港元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：贾靖 邮箱：jiajing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040004 证券分析师：林宛慧 邮箱：linwanhui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524110001 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 公司基本数据 | 总股本(万股) | 1,135,700.00 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股(万股) ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [7][18]. Core Views - The company's H1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 14.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.07%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.72% to 727 million yuan [1]. - The company plans to acquire a 50% stake in Qiaogou Mining for 855 million yuan, which will enhance its resource advantages by increasing its phosphate resource reserves from 39.5 million tons to 58 million tons [1][7]. - The report highlights the recovery in prices for glyphosate and the concentration of phosphate ammonium export opportunities, which are expected to support continued profit recovery in Q3 [7]. Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.39 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13.44% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.25%. The net profit for the same period was 416 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.72% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 34% [1]. - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 16.44%, down 0.94 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 5.39%, down 0.64 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The report projects adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with estimates of 2.078 billion yuan, 2.500 billion yuan, and 2.826 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 29.8% in 2025 [8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its upstream control in the phosphate chemical industry through the acquisition of Qiaogou Mining, which has a phosphate resource reserve of approximately 18.5 million tons [7]. - The report emphasizes ongoing projects in fine chemical products and key projects that are expected to create new profit growth points for the company [7]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 34.05 yuan, based on a 15x PE ratio for 2026, indicating significant upside potential from the current price of 27.31 yuan [3][8].

证 券 研 究 报 告 仙鹤股份（603733）2025 年半年报点评 推荐（维持） 林浆纸用一体化布局完善，中长期增长动能 充沛 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 10,274 | 12,844 | 15,577 | 18,022 | | 同比增速(%) | 20.1% | 25.0% | 21.3% | 15.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,004 | 1,130 | 1,380 | 1,685 | | 同比增速(%) | 51.2% | 12.6% | 22.1% | 22.1% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.42 | 1.60 | 1.95 | 2.39 | | 市盈率(倍) | 17 | 15 | 13 | 10 | | 市净率(倍) | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 8 月 28 日收盘价 公司研究 造纸Ⅲ 2025 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 138.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 204.4%. The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 47.1 billion yuan, up 362.8% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 33.9%, an increase of 11.6 percentage points [1]. - The company has demonstrated strong performance in its diversified IP matrix and significant growth potential in overseas markets, with overseas revenue reaching 55.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 439.6%, accounting for 40.3% of total revenue [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 32,399 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 148.5% [3]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 11,133 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 256.2% [3]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to be 8.29 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.7 [3][9]. - **Market Capitalization**: The total market capitalization is reported at 435.65 billion yuan [4]. Market Expansion and IP Development - The company has successfully launched nearly 20 plush toy products around 10 core IPs in the first half of 2025, with several IPs generating over 1 billion yuan in revenue [7]. - The overseas market has shown remarkable growth, particularly in the Americas, where revenue increased by 1142% to 22.6 billion yuan, driven by e-commerce and retail expansion [7]. - The company has also enhanced its local operations in the Asia-Pacific region, increasing retail store numbers significantly, which contributed to a revenue increase of 258% to 28.5 billion yuan [7]. Production Capacity and Long-term Growth - The company has significantly increased its production capacity, with a monthly output of approximately 30 million plush toys, which is over ten times that of the previous year [7]. - The report suggests that ongoing investments in new materials and manufacturing processes will further optimize production efficiency and support long-term growth [7].

Q2 利润高增接近预告上限，海外订单进入交 付高峰期 证 券 研 究 报 告 福斯达（603173）2025 年半年报点评 强推（维持） 事项： 公司发布 2025 年半年度报告，2025 年上半年营业总收入 14.8 亿元，同比增长 62.1%，归母净利润 2.5 亿元，同比增长 140.4%，扣非归母净利润 2.5 亿元， 同比增长 183.1%。第二季度营业总收入 8.8 亿元，同比增长 57.8%，归母净利 润 1.4 亿元，同比增长 249.1%，扣非归母净利润 1.3 亿元，同比增长 288.9%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 2,419 | 3,119 | 3,490 | 3,873 | | 同比增速(%) | 12.2% | 28.9% | 11.9% | 11.0% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 261 | 427 | 527 | 632 | | 同比增速(%) | 36.6% | 63. ...