Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the issuance of wealth management products, with 3,574 new products launched during the period from June 14 to June 27, 2025, compared to 2,530 in the previous period, indicating a strong market recovery [6][9] - Fixed income products dominate the new issuance landscape, accounting for 95.41% of new wealth management products, reflecting a conservative risk appetite among investors [19] - The report notes a shift towards diversified investment products, with some institutions beginning to explore equity and derivative assets to enhance returns while maintaining stability [19] Summary by Sections 1. Wealth Management Products - During the period from June 14 to June 27, 2025, the market saw a total of 3,574 new wealth management products, a significant increase from the previous period [9] - The majority of new products (84.28%) were issued by wealth management companies, with an average performance benchmark of 2.64%, the highest among all types of institutions [9] - The structure of new products remains stable, with fixed income products leading at 3,410 new issues, representing 95.41% of the total [19] - Short to medium-term products (3-6 months and 6 months-1 year) are favored by investors, indicating a preference for liquidity alongside returns [20] 2. Fund Products - A total of 91 new public funds were established during the reporting period, with a total issuance scale of 786 million units, a 96.75% increase from the previous period [25] - Bond funds led the new issuance with 344.50 million units, although their market share slightly decreased to 43.83% [26] - The report notes a resurgence in various fund types, including QDII, REITs, and FOF funds, indicating a recovery in the market [30] 3. Insurance Products - The market saw the issuance of 38 new insurance products during the reporting period, continuing a trend of moderate growth [39] - Life insurance products saw a decline in new issuances, while annuity products surged, becoming the dominant category with a market share of 57.9% [39] - Regulatory changes are influencing the structure of insurance products, particularly in the area of dividend insurance, which is expected to remain a key focus for companies [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In H1 2025, convertible bonds showed an "N"-shaped upward fluctuation driven by multiple factors. The convertible bond index outperformed major stock indices, and the valuation increased by 3.58pct compared to the end of 2024. The convertible bond market experienced two rises and two falls, which can be divided into three stages: the valuation increase supported by the capital of convertible bonds from the end of 2024 to before the Spring Festival, the technology sector theme fever from after the Spring Festival to the end of March, and the callback and rebound of convertible bonds following the equity market under the tariff disturbances from early April to June [2][9]. - The convertible bond market presented strong performance. From the beginning of 2025 to June 30, the CSI Convertible Bond Index outperformed major equity market indices. The net value of convertible bond funds rose by 7.48% in H1 2025, better than that of first - and second - tier bond funds and partial - debt funds. The maximum drawdown of convertible bond funds was - 8.38%, which was better than that of stock - type and partial - stock - type funds [12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025H1 Convertible Bond Market: Fluctuating with the Underlying Stocks under the Macroeconomic Narrative, with Better Stability - **Convertible Bond Terms**: In 2025, the number of forced redemptions remained high. A total of 96 convertible bonds triggered the forced redemption clause, and 36 were announced for redemption, with a forced redemption probability of 37.5%, slightly lower than 42.4% in 2024. The number of times the downward revision clause was triggered decreased, and the probability of downward revision also declined. The number and balance of convertible bonds entering the put - back period were still large, but put - back events only occurred sporadically [3][21][22]. - **Supply - Demand Structure**: The supply improved significantly year - on - year but was uneven. A total of 19 convertible bonds were issued in H1 2025, with a scale of 21.775 billion yuan, up 58.33% and 68.66% respectively compared to H1 2024. High - rating and large - cap convertible bonds had relatively weak issuance. On the demand side, most major holders reduced their positions, but securities firms and private funds increased their holdings [4][30][42]. 3.2 Stage Review: Convertible Bonds' Resistance to Decline - Theme Fever - External Disturbances - **January 2 - January 27**: Equity market had a small "V" - shaped reversal, and convertible bonds maintained a high - level valuation. At the beginning of the year, the equity market's callback and the spill - over effect from pure bonds catalyzed a rapid increase in the valuation of convertible bonds. Insurance funds and ETFs' increased holdings supported the valuation. The 100 - yuan premium rate increased by 3.43pct to 24.10% [5][58][63]. - **February 5 - March 31**: The technology theme fever catalyzed the convertible bond market. After the Spring Festival, the technology theme drove the equity market, and the convertible bond market was affected by the redemption pressure of bond funds, with its elasticity being less than that of the equity market, and the valuation decreased by 1.82pct to 22.28% [5][58][66]. - **April 1 - June 30**: External uncertainties were controllable, and the hot spots shifted to the pharmaceutical and consumer sectors. The tariff disturbances led to a callback in the equity market in April, but the impact was controllable. The convertible bond style turned to be more stable, and the valuation was relatively firm. The 100 - yuan premium rate increased by 2.44pct to 24.72% [5][58][71].

Group 1: Fund Flow and Market Trends - The supply side of funds has slightly contracted, with public equity issuance recovering in the past two weeks, while leveraged funds saw a significant net inflow of 265 billion CNY, up from a previous outflow of 29 billion CNY[8][24] - Equity financing surged by 543.5 billion CNY in the last two weeks, indicating strong demand, while southbound funds continued to flow in with a net inflow of 259.5 billion CNY[8][24][82] - The net inflow of retail investor funds in the A-share market was 633 billion CNY, a decrease of 402.1 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it at the 19.2% percentile over the past five years[9] Group 2: Trading Activity and Sector Performance - Trading congestion metrics indicate that the financial and TMT sectors are on the rise, while most cyclical sectors are cooling down; for instance, the brokerage sector's heat index rose by 34 percentage points to 39%[8][9] - The insurance sector increased by 17 percentage points to 34%, while the chemical sector decreased by 11 percentage points to 79%[8][9] - The computer sector's trading heat rose by 16 percentage points to 67%, and the communication sector increased by 7 percentage points to 68%[8][9] Group 3: ETF and Stock Buyback Trends - Stock-type ETFs experienced a net outflow of 197 billion CNY, significantly larger than the previous inflow of 139.8 billion CNY, placing the current sentiment at a low point[50][51] - The amount of stock buybacks increased to 21.1 billion CNY from 15.4 billion CNY, which is at the 61% percentile over the past three years[54][55] Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - The search interest for Kuaishou's A-shares has surged, driven by the recent peak in the Shanghai Composite Index, which reached a new high for the year[9][135] - The public fund concentration trend has weakened, shifting towards value styles and focusing on consumption and cyclical industries, with 30% of the top public fund stocks leading the gains in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and military sectors[9]

合前 11 2 证券研究报告 【每周经济观察】 关税战下的美国抢进口:规模、区域和结构 海外周报第 96 期 主要观点 4月美国对全球普征基准的10%对等关税,与此同时,一系列重磅关税虽然豁 免但只是暂停,挥之不去的关税阴影驱使美国进口商抢进口。当下我们回顾前 四个月美国进口数据,重点解析"抢什么商品"、"从哪抢进口"两大核心问题, 从而或可为后续美国进口形势展望提供分析基础。 (一)加了多少关税? 左 观 机 元 每周经济观察 2025年07月 03日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:张瑜 电话:010-66500887 邮箱:zhangyu3@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360518090001 证券分析师:夏雪 邮箱:xiaxue@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360524070004 相关研究报告 在分析抢进口之前,首先一个小问题是,美国有效关税率究竟提高了多少?有 效关税率定义为关税收入/进口额,4月,美国整体进口有效关税率飙升至 7%, 2024年为 2.3%,其中,对中国有效关税率升至 37.5%,3月为25%,2024年 为 10.6%;对中国以外地区有效关税率升至3.9%;3月为1.8 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 "人形机器人的 Optimus 时刻"系列（十一） 推荐（维持） 精密减速器：群雄逐鹿，新的篇章 三大行业共振，减速器迎来全新机遇。 1、工业机器人：减速器最大的下游应用场景。据睿工业，2024年我国市场用 于工业机器人的精密减速器出货量约为109.7万台。从长期来看，工业机器人 向智能化与柔性化方向升级，以及国产技术在高端应用场景（如汽车制造等） 中的不断突破，将持续推动精密减速器市场实现稳步增长。 2、工业母机：减速器最核心的下游应用场景。当前我国高端机床的核心零部 件主要依赖日本及德国品牌，国产零部件使用率较低。从长远看，实现中高端 机床零部件的国产化率提升是实现自主可控关键。我们拆解各类型机床对应减 速器配置数量，测算 2024 年我国机床领域减速器总需求量为 59.8 万台。 3、人形机器人：减速器最潜力的下游应用场景。目前人形机器人领域主流的 减速器配置方案为"谐波减速器+行星减速器"的组合。特斯拉方案单Optimus 需要 16个谐波减速器，对应价值量在 2万元左右；国产全旋转模组方案，单 台机器人减速器价值量约为 3 万元左右。 三大类别看目前国产减速器厂商布 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a year-on-year increase in net profit of 70%-100% for the first half of 2025, with a midpoint estimate of 5.22 billion yuan, reflecting an 85% increase [7]. - The emerging business segment, particularly the subsidiary focusing on aviation power systems, is projected to benefit from the booming low-altitude economy and evolving international dynamics, leading to significant revenue growth [2]. - The financial forecasts for the company show a robust growth trajectory, with total revenue expected to reach 13.94 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 32.7% year-on-year increase [3]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 10.51 billion yuan, 13.94 billion yuan, 16.09 billion yuan, and 18.52 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 28.9%, 32.7%, 15.4%, and 15.1% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 461 million yuan in 2024, increasing to 919 million yuan in 2025, with a remarkable growth rate of 99.2% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 0.40 yuan in 2024 to 0.80 yuan in 2025, reflecting the company's improving profitability [3]. Business Performance - The company's traditional business segments are experiencing high demand, particularly in motorcycle engines and general machinery, which are expected to drive revenue growth [7]. - The integration of the company with its joint venture, Longxin General, is anticipated to create synergies that could enhance overall performance [7]. - The aviation power segment reported a revenue of 160 million yuan in 2024, marking a 71.74% increase year-on-year, with expectations for further improvement in 2025 [2].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 关税战下的美国抢进口：规模、区域和结构 ——海外周报第 96 期 主要观点 从两个视角看：1）主要区域进口增速。从这个角度看，今年以来进口暴涨的 拉动主要源自欧元区、东盟、中国台湾地区、澳大利亚和印度。1-4月美国进 口累计同比（按人口普查局口径，后文同）为 19.3%，上述 5区域合计拉动美 国进口同比 11个点。4月美国整体进口增速下滑至 1.9%，上述 5区域中，东 盟、中国台湾地区和印度仍然保持较强拉动，合计约为5.7个点，而欧元区拉 动转负，拖累约 0.1 个点。 2）主要区域进口空运占比。从这个角度看，今年以来抢进口最强的（2025Q1 相比于 2024年空运进口占比提升最多的）或是澳大利亚、欧元区、印度、越 南（或东盟整体）、中国台湾地区。与此同时，上述五个经济体中，4月单月空 运进口占比相比 2025Q1下降的主要有澳大利亚、欧元区，或反映这两个区域 抢进口动能边际衰减。 核心观点：四问美国抢进口：1）美国有效关税率究竟提高了多少？4月升至 7%，2024 年为 2.3%，其中，对中国为 37.5%（2024 年为 10.6%），对中国以 外 ...

Group 1: Central Economic Committee Meeting Insights - The 6th meeting of the 20th Central Economic Committee was held on July 1, 2025, with a significant gap of nearly one and a half years since the last publicly disclosed meeting[3] - The meeting emphasized the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market, focusing on supply-side optimization and combating "involution" competition[13] - The meeting's outcomes are expected to lead to smoother policy formulation and execution, as clarified by the recent political bureau meeting[6] Group 2: Supply-Side Reform and Involution - The concept of "anti-involution" was first introduced in the July 2024 political bureau meeting, with the current meeting reinforcing this stance and calling for specific policy implementations[17] - Historical context shows that supply-side structural reforms initiated in November 2015 led to significant improvements in local government finances, with land transfer income rising from CNY 3.1 trillion to CNY 5.0 trillion between 2015 and 2017[20] - Current local fiscal pressures remain high, necessitating careful monitoring of how "anti-involution" and supply-side optimization are implemented[20] Group 3: Marine Economy Development - The meeting highlighted the ongoing policy support for the marine economy, which has been a consistent focus since the 18th National Congress in 2012[24] - Key investment areas identified include offshore wind power, marine infrastructure, and marine transportation, with expectations for short-term fundamental improvements[28] - The integration of marine economy with other sectors such as pharmaceuticals, military, and cultural tourism is anticipated to catalyze further policy support[28]

证 券 研 究 报 告 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 • 资金流动性： 杠杆&ETF资金分化，快手A股搜索热度持续飙升 ——流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报 2025年7月3日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 1）资金供给端小幅收缩，公募权益新发近两周整体回暖，杠杆资金净流入显著提升，ETF资金情绪低点； 2）资金需求端股权融资近两周暴增5435亿元，南向资金仍持续放量。 • 交易拥挤度：以过去四周成交额占比/市值占比（较全A）作为衡量主题行业交易热度的表征指标来看，金融 &TMT上行，周期多数降温：券商热度分位（下同）上升34pct至39%；保险+17pct至34%；计算机+16pct至 67%；通信+7p ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20250702 市场概况：今日转债增量下跌，估值环比压缩 指数表现：中证转债指数环比下降 0.32%、上证综指环比下降0.09%、深证成 指环比下降 0.61%、创业板指环比下降 1.13%、上证 50指数环比上涨0.18%、 中证 1000 指数环比下降 1.01%。 转债市场共计 25 个行业下跌，跌幅前三位行业为通信（-2.34%）、银行（- 2.17%）、汽车（-1.51%）；涨幅前三位行业为钢铁（+0.70%）、煤炭（+0.21%）、 国防军工（+0.08%）。 (1) 收盘价：大周期环比-0.41%、制造环比-0.79%、科技环比-1.16%、大消费 环比-0.56%、大金融环比-1.55%。 (2) 转股溢价率：大周期环比-1.5pct、制造环比-1.2pct、科技环比+0.82pct、大 消费环比-1.1pct、大金融环比-0.54pct。 (3) 转换价值：大周期环比+0.37%、制造环比-0.42%、科技环比-1.56%、大消 费环比-0.06%、大金融环比-1.80%。 (4) 纯债溢价率：大周期环比-0.57pct、制 ...