Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive sector, highlighting optimistic expectations for the second half of the year [4][7]. Core Insights - June sales performance exceeded expectations, and the market is anticipated to remain strong in the second half of the year, with reduced risks from price wars due to a combination of "anti-involution" and strong sales [2][4]. - Concerns about potential fluctuations in sales due to subsidy policy changes next year may suppress investment sentiment, but there are opportunities for positioning after sentiment stabilizes [2][4]. Data Tracking - In June, new energy vehicle deliveries showed significant growth, with BYD delivering 382,585 units (up 12% year-on-year), while Li Auto and Leap Motor saw declines of 24.1% and 28.8% respectively [5][20]. - Traditional automakers also performed well, with Geely's sales increasing by 42.1% year-on-year to 236,000 units, and SAIC Motor leading the market with 365,000 units sold [5][23]. Investment Recommendations - For complete vehicles, the report recommends Jianghuai Automobile, with a positive outlook for the second half of the year. It also suggests monitoring Li Auto, BAIC Blue Valley, SAIC Motor, Seres, and Xiaomi Group [7]. - In the auto parts sector, it advises low-positioning strategies due to significant industry beta impacts, recommending companies like Xinquan, Xingyu, Aikodi, Haoneng, and Horizon [7]. - The heavy truck segment is expected to maintain strong growth, with recommendations for Heavy Truck A and Weichai H/A [7]. Industry News - In June, the retail market for passenger vehicles reached 2.032 million units, a 15% year-on-year increase, with new energy vehicles accounting for 107,100 units sold, reflecting a 25% growth [32]. - The report notes the launch of the new XPeng G7, which features advanced AI capabilities and is priced between 195,800 and 225,800 yuan [32]. Market Performance - The automotive sector index increased by 0.21%, ranking 23rd out of 29 sectors, while the overall market indices showed positive growth [10][34].

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 金融资金面跟踪：量化周报（2025/06/30~2025/07/04） 推荐（维持） 超额整体平稳，市场成交量有所回落 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：刘潇伟 邮箱：liuxiaowei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525020001 各量化超额整体为正。上周样本量化私募收益及超额如下：1）300 增强策略周/月/ 年初以来平均收益分别为+2.2%/+2.4%/+4.7%，周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为 -0.1%/+0.7%/+4.9% ； 2 ） 500 增 强 策 略 周 / 月 / 年 初 以 来 平 均 收 益 分 别 为 +3.6%/+5.1%/+10.4%，周/月/年初以来平均超额分别为-0.4%/+0.6%/+9.9%；3）A500 增 强策略周/月/年初以来平均收益分别为+2.1%/+2.6%/+8.7%，周/月/年初以来平均超额分别 为 -0.6%/+0.7%/+9.2% ； 4 ） 1000 增 强 策 略 周 / 月 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 20.9 CNY, indicating a potential upside of approximately 39% from the current price of 15.00 CNY [2][9]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the deep cooling technology sector, leveraging a dual-engine model of "equipment manufacturing + gas operation" to drive growth. The company has successfully diversified its operations and is expanding into international markets [6][13]. - The demand for deep cooling technology is expected to grow due to rising oil prices and the economic viability of technological innovations in the energy and chemical sectors. The company has seen a significant increase in new orders, particularly from overseas markets [7][8]. - The gas operation segment is also expanding, with the company investing in industrial and rare gases, which are anticipated to become new revenue sources as projects reach production capacity [6][8]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts total revenue of 27.17 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 10.9%. However, revenue is expected to rebound with growth rates of 18.8%, 19.7%, and 22.2% in the following years [2][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be -78 million CNY in 2024, but is expected to recover significantly to 403 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 616.3% [2][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to improve from -0.20 CNY in 2024 to 1.04 CNY in 2025, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 times for 2025 [2][9]. Business Model and Market Position - The company has established a strong market position in the deep cooling technology sector, with its core products including natural gas liquefaction devices and large air separation units. The company has also successfully exported its products to 53 countries [6][13]. - The gas operation segment has been enhanced through strategic investments, including a joint venture with Posco Holdings to operate projects abroad, marking a significant step in the company's international expansion [6][8]. - The company has a robust order backlog, with new orders in 2024 expected to reach approximately 1.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of over 25% [6][8]. Industry Outlook - The deep cooling technology industry is poised for growth, driven by increasing domestic investments in energy security and the economic viability of coal chemical and natural gas sectors. The company is well-positioned to benefit from these trends [7][8]. - The report highlights the importance of deep cooling technology in enhancing energy efficiency and meeting environmental standards in the coal chemical industry, which is expected to see sustained demand [6][45].

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|低空经济周报（第 44 期） 中国民航局成立通用航空和低空经济工作领 推荐（维持） 导小组，顶层设计持续推进 万丰奥威：A 股低空经济龙头标的，我们持续看好公司通航+eVTOL 双轮驱 动，收购 Volocopter 资产效应被明显低估。 西锐：全球通航制造龙头，我们预计 2025 年业绩保持 30%+增速，对应当前 PE 仅 12 倍出头，明显低于可比公司。 宗申动力：主业业绩高增长，传统主业与新兴产业高景气共振，看好宗申航发 无人机系统核心环节具备领先的量产能力。 应流股份：公司布局"航空发动机+燃气轮机+核能新材料+低空经济"四大未 来战略级方向。 英搏尔：与亿航成立合资公司深度介入 eVTOL 生产领域、与亿维特、广汽高 域等均有战略合作。 莱斯信息：持续看好公司成为低空数字化领域的"一超"， 公司陆续中标低空 项目，全国化布局不断推进。 四川九洲：切入低空飞行检测领域形成商业闭环，围绕低空新基建在物流领域 打造软硬结合样板工程。 深城交：深圳低空数字化领军企业，立足改革前沿。 国睿科技：军贸东风起，低空万象新。持续强调军贸方向，重视雷达，公司是 雷达军贸核 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 长青集团（002616）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 火电项目存预期差，生物质项目或迎扭亏机 遇，与中科系合作打开未来成长空间 公司研究 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 3,786 | 3,815 | 3,954 | 4,055 | | 同比增速(%) | -4.6% | 0.8% | 3.6% | 2.6% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 217 | 330 | 352 | 395 | | 同比增速(%) | 36.3% | 52.4% | 6.6% | 12.1% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.29 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.53 | | 市盈率(倍) | 21 | 14 | 13 | 11 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 7 月 4 日收盘价 供热或其他 2025 年 07 月 0 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】6 月美国非农数据点评 就业状况指数指向"half full"还是"half empty"？ 主要观点 ❖ 6 月非农数据简述：新增非农就业再超预期 1、新增非农就业超预期，录得 14.7 万，预期 10.6 万。就业增长集中在 4 个行 业，政府部门（+7.3 万，前值+0.7 万）、教育保健服务（+5.1 万，前值+8.3 万）、 休闲酒店业（+2 万，前值+2.9 万）、建筑业（+1.5 万，前值+0.6 万）。罢工结 束贡献约 0.56 万的新增就业。 2、失业率从 4.2%下行至 4.1%，预期 4.3%。劳动参与率从 62.4%降至 62.3%。 3、时薪增速低于预期，环比 0.2%，预期 0.3%，前值 0.4%。周工时从 34.3 小 时降至 34.2 小时，处于 2015 年以来的绝对低位水平。周薪环比下降 0.1%，今 年以来首次录得负值。 4、市场降息预期明显降温，美股和美元指数上涨，长端美债利率上行。期货 市场定价的7月降息概率从25.3%降至4.7%，9月降息概率从91%降至70.7%， 全年降息次数从 2.6 次降至 2.1 次。 ❖ 6 月非农 ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20250704 市场概况：今日转债增量下跌，估值环比压缩 指数表现：中证转债指数环比上涨 0.15%、上证综指环比上涨0.32%、深证成 指环比下降 0.25%、创业板指环比下降 0.36%、上证 50指数环比上涨0.58%、 中证 1000 指数环比下降 0.48%。 行业表现：今日正股行业指数下降占比过半，共计 18个行业下跌。A股市场 中，跌幅前三位行业为美容护理（-1.87%）、有色金属（-1.60%）、基础化工（- 1.22%）；涨幅前三位行业为银行（+1.84%）、传媒（+0.91%）、公用事业（+0.67%）。 转债市场共计 17个行业下跌，跌幅前三位行业为国防军工（-2.23%）、纺织服 饰（-1.35%）、汽车（-1.32%）；涨幅前三位行业为环保（+3.15%）、公用事业 （+1.06%）、计算机（+0.69%）。 市场风格：大盘价值相对占优。大盘成长环比下降0.03%、大盘价值环比上涨 1.09%、中盘成长环比下降 0.52%、中盘价值环比下降 0.14%、小盘成长环比 下降 0.59%、小盘价值环比上涨 0.01%。 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车行业跟踪报告 2Q 板块财报前瞻：2Q25 销量高增，板块财 推荐（维持） 务增长预期乐观 乘用车销量：预计 2Q25 批发、零售均实现两位数左右同环比增长 行业研究 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：张程航 电话：021-20572543 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360519070003 证券分析师：李昊岚 邮箱：lihaolan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524010003 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 232 | 0.03 | | 总市值(亿元) | 51,073.47 | 4.91 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 32,514.94 | 3.97 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -0.7% | 12.4% | 33.6% | | 相对表现 | -3.4% | 9.2% | 20.1% | 汽车 2025 年 07 月 04 日 -9% 9% 27% 45 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 供需有待 【宏观快评】 经济或呈现低波运行——6 月经济数据前瞻 主要观点 核心观点：展望 6月及二季度，经济或呈现低波运行特征。首先，从GDP数 据来看，受益于国内的两新政策、出口的韧性，生产端保持较快增长。预计 2 季度全部工业生产增速 5.9%左右，预计 2季度 GDP增速在 5.3%左右，接近 1季度的 5.4%。其次，受益于政府债发行的前值，社融增速稳中有升，预计6 月末抬升至 8.8%左右。再次，市场较为关注的出口数据，增速或边际放缓， 但仍有韧性，预计 6 月出口同比在 3.5%左右。 后续来看，关注重心在可能带来经济走势出现变化的几个方向。包括美国与各 国的关税谈判进展、地产的库存去化、"反内卷"在供给端的约束等。 一、GDP：预计 2 季度 GDP 增速在 5.3%左右 主要原因来看：1）受益于设备更新、以旧换新、出口韧性，工业生产在 2 季 度维持偏强态势。预计 2 季度全部工业（规上+规下）增速在 5.9%左右。2） 受益于以旧换新，零售环节增速继续回升，预计批发零售业2季度增速为6.8% 左右，高于 1 季度的 5.8%。3）信息业与租赁服务业，预计维持高增长。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the major indices experienced an upward trend in the second quarter of 2025, with the ChiNext Composite Index leading with a 5.80% increase and the National Index 2000 rising by 4.41% [1][12][13] - In terms of industry performance, only a few sectors showed negative returns, with the comprehensive financial sector increasing by 32.16% and the national defense and military industry rising by 16.03% [1][13][14] - The report highlights that the timing models performed excellently in Q2 2025, particularly the price-volume resonance V3 model, low volatility blade model, and characteristic volume model [1][6][18] Group 2 - The report identifies sectors to watch for Q3 2025, including oil and petrochemicals, automobiles, and electronics, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [3][6] - The report emphasizes the use of multi-dimensional models for market timing, industry rotation, and stock selection strategies, which are based on estimated fund positions and over/underweighting [7][18] - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various timing models, including short-term, medium-term, and long-term strategies, showcasing their historical performance and future predictions [6][18][19]