宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】12 月 FOMC 会议点评 有克制的"价""量"双宽 主要观点 12 月 FOMC 会议：中性偏鹰的降息 1、降息 25BP 至 3.5-3.75%，符合预期。与 9 月就业数据变化相符合，本次会 议声明删除失业率"仍处于低位"的表述，对经济和通胀的描述没有变化。 2、"金发姑娘经济"预期：美联储官员上调 2025-2028 年的增长预测，下调 2025-2026 年的通胀预测。2025、2026、2027、2028 年四季度的 GDP 同比预 期分别为 1.7%、2.3%、2.0%、1.9%（9 月预期分别为 1.6%、1.8%、1.9%、1.8%）； 2025、2026、2027、2028 年四季度的核心 PCE 同比预期分别为 3.0%、2.5%、 2.1%、2.0%（9 月预期分别为 3.1%、2.6%、2.1%、2.0%）。 3、点阵图预计明年和后年各降息 1 次，但分歧较大。 4、重启"扩表"：从今年 12 月启动"储备管理购买"（具体见下文）。 5、鲍威尔的表态中性略偏鹰。1）认为明年经济将稳健增长。2）到年底失业 率可能升至 4.5%，随后将小幅 ...

Inflation Data Summary - November CPI increased year-on-year from 0.2% to 0.7%, meeting expectations of 0.7%[2] - Core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, maintaining a high level since 2022[2] - PPI decreased year-on-year from -2.1% to -2.2%, with expectations of -2%[2] Key Influences on CPI - Food prices significantly impacted CPI, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% compared to -2.7% in November last year[2] - Fresh vegetable prices rose by 7.2% due to adverse weather affecting production and transportation[2] - Medical service prices increased by 0.3%, marking the eighth consecutive month of price rises[2] PPI Trends - PPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the second consecutive month of increase[3] - Seasonal demand in coal and gas industries contributed to price increases[3] - The computer and electronics sector saw a price increase of 0.1%, while the automotive sector's price decline narrowed from -0.2% to -0.1%[3] Future Inflation Outlook - CPI is expected to maintain a positive year-on-year trend, with projections of around 0.7% for next year[4] - PPI is anticipated to show a recovery trend, but the timing for a positive year-on-year change remains uncertain, with estimates around -1.4% for next year[4] - The supply-demand dynamics in the midstream manufacturing sector are crucial for PPI stabilization[4] Risks and Considerations - Potential upward risks for CPI include improvements in service sector pricing, particularly if consumer subsidy policies expand[5] - The midstream manufacturing sector's price stabilization is critical for PPI recovery, as it has been a significant drag on overall PPI performance[5]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Framework - The ten-year government bond yield reflects the risk-free rate of a country and should correspond to the country's economic growth and investment returns[1] - Prior to unconventional monetary policy, a nominal GDP growth of 4%-5% typically corresponds to a ten-year bond yield of 2%-5%[2] - Currently, China's nominal GDP growth is approximately 4.2%, while the ten-year bond yield is around 1.85%[4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Perspective - The increase in the corporate-resident deposit gap indicates strong demand for funds in the real economy, leading the ten-year bond yield by about one year[9] - The non-bank investment gap has been rising since October 2024, suggesting an increase in financial institutions' risk appetite, which leads the ten-year bond yield by about six months[9] - The corporate-resident deposit gap has risen by 9% over the past year, indicating a higher probability of an increase in the ten-year bond yield[9] Group 3: Policy Perspective - As of 2022, 2023, and 2024, the ten-year bond yield has declined more than the policy rate by 12bp, 38bp, and 30bp respectively, indicating limited further downward space for yields[10] - The current expectation of unconventional monetary policy for 2025 has cooled, suggesting a gradual return of the ten-year bond yield to normal levels[3] - Historical experience shows that during periods of government-led leverage increases, the probability of significant interest rate hikes remains low[11]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15.19 CNY [2][10]. Core Views - The company, TUBABO (兔宝宝), is a leading player in the decorative panel industry, focusing on the sales of decorative materials, particularly plywood, which is well-suited for the lower-tier market [7][14]. - The company has a strong channel layout and brand strength, targeting both C-end and small B-end markets, with significant growth potential in the underdeveloped markets [10][9]. - The report forecasts revenue growth of 0.3%, 10.3%, and 9.7% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth of 33.5%, 0.8%, and 9.3% respectively [10][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - TUBABO has been a key player in the decorative panel industry for over 30 years, becoming one of the largest in terms of sales scale and channel coverage [14]. - The company’s revenue is primarily derived from decorative materials, which accounted for 81% of total revenue in 2024, while the custom home business has been declining [15][22]. 2. Market Dynamics - The decorative panel market is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape, with significant opportunities in the C-end and small B-end markets [9][61]. - The company’s main product, plywood, is favored in traditional woodworking systems, while particleboard is preferred by large custom furniture manufacturers [50][55]. 3. Channel Strategy - TUBABO is accelerating the establishment of specialty stores in rural areas, with a notable increase in the number of stores [7][10]. - The company is also enhancing its online presence through partnerships with e-commerce platforms to drive traffic and customer acquisition [7][10]. 4. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue from panel sales reached 48 billion CNY in 2024, with an 8% year-on-year growth [32]. - The brand licensing business has shown stable growth, contributing significantly to the overall gross margin, with a gross margin rate of 99% [34][38]. 5. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in the real estate market, which will positively impact the company’s business in the medium to long term [10][7]. - The company is expected to leverage its channel advantages and brand strength to capture substantial growth in the lower-tier markets [10][9].

Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points in December, lowering the federal funds rate range from 4%-3.75% to 3.75%-3.5%[1] - The Fed raised its economic growth forecast for the U.S. next year while lowering inflation expectations, with the 2026 GDP growth forecast increased by 0.5% to 2.3% and the core PCE forecast reduced by 0.1% to 2.5%[1][4] Future Rate Projections - The latest dot plot indicates the Fed may cut rates once in both 2026 and 2027, with no cuts expected in 2028, maintaining a neutral rate at 3%[1][4] - The median forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 is not expected to be lower than 3.25%, with a similar outlook for 2027[4] Economic Outlook - The Fed's decision to purchase short-term U.S. Treasury securities aims to maintain ample reserve levels, unrelated to monetary policy stance[1][5] - The Fed's actions support a positive outlook for the U.S. economy, with potential upward pressure on the dollar and long-term Treasury yields[1][7] Risks and Market Reactions - Risks include a potential price war in the oil market and systemic financial risks in emerging markets[2] - Following the Fed's rate cuts from April to September, U.S. equities, the dollar, and long-term Treasury yields have shown upward trends, indicating a shift in market sentiment[7]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 政策双周报（1121-1209）：政治局会议召开， 保险投资股票风险因子调降 ❖ 宏观基调：发挥存量增量政策集成效应，增强消费品供需适配性 （1）政治局会议：12 月政治局会议强调继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度 宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调 节力度。 （2）促消费：11 月 26 日，六部门联合发文增强消费品供需适配性进一步促 进消费。 （3）金融强国：12 月 3 日，中央金融办副主任、中央金融工委副书记王江发 表署名文章称，扎实做好金融防风险、强监管、促高质量发展各项工作，推动 金融强国建设在"十五五"时期取得新成就。 ❖ 财政政策：更加有力有效实施积极的财政政策，地方债发行突破 10 万亿 （1）政策基调：财政部部长蓝佛安发表了题为《发挥积极财政政策作用》的 署名文章，强调准确把握"十五五"时期财政面临的形势任务，更加有力有效 实施积极的财政政策。 （2）地方债：12 月 2 日，据第一财经，全国地方政府债券发行规模约为 10.1 万亿元，为年度地方政府债券发行规模历史上首次突破 10 万亿元。 ❖ 货币政策：关注跨周期平衡 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2025 年第 49 周） 重庆发布"好房子"建设支持新政，万科公 推荐（维持） 布债务展期议案 行业研究 房地产 2025 年 12 月 09 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,299.23 | 1.03 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 11,793.16 | 1.23 | | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -3.9% | 10.8% | -9.5% | | 相对表现 | -2.6% | -8.5% | -25.8% | | | 2024-12-0 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 出口强在中游——11 月进出口数据点评 事 项 11 月我国以美元计算出口同比 5.9%，预期 3.8%，前值-1.1%；11 月以美元计 价进口同比 1.9%，预期 3%，前值 1.0%。 主要观点 核心观点： 1）11 月出口增速反弹超预期（较上月高 7 个点）有基数的影响（5 个点左右）， 也有需求韧性的支撑。一是 11 月我国制造业 PMI 新出口订单大幅修复且各行 业全面回升，二是出口边际增长动能有所恢复。9-11 月环比平均 1.1%，与历 史同期均值相近，Q3 出口月度环比均值仅有 0.4%（大幅低于过去十年同期平 均 1.4%）。 2）品类来看，出口强在机电（对应中游制造），弱在劳密。1-11 月，我国机电 产品出口累计同比 7.9%，2024 年为 7.4%，其中，"机电三样"（车、船、集成 电路）出口增速均在 15%以上。 3）往后看，①月度视角下，12 月基数抬升，或带来同比读数 2-3 个点的调整 压力。②季度视角下，领先指标显示外需环境稳健，电子链或继续助力增长。 ③半年至一年维度下，货币宽松累积效应驱动的稳定外需环境+机电出口景 气，或支撑出口 ...

资料来源： Wind ，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 12 月 8 日收盘价 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券行业周报（20251201-20251207） 吴清主席协会大会讲话：明确"十五五"路径，重 推荐（维持） 塑行业格局 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 代码 | 股价（元） 2025E | | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 广发证券 | 000776.SZ | 21.71 | 1.90 | 1.94 | 2.05 | 11.45 | 11.17 | 10.60 | 1.31 | 推荐 | | 中信证券 | 600030.SH | 28.70 | 1.90 | 1.91 | 2.08 | 15.14 | 15.03 | 13.77 | 1.53 | 推荐 | | 华泰证券 | 6016 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 金山办公（688111）跟踪分析报告 强推（维持） WPS 365 升级，金山打造 AI 协同办公龙头 事项： 11 月 25 日，金山办公宣布旗下 WPS 365 正式升级为全球一站式 AI 协同办公 平台，推出 WPS 灵犀企业版、团队空间、"轻舟"引擎等新产品，并对智能文 档库、数字员工两大 AI 核心产品进行升级。此举将让 WPS 365 成为首个拥有 全产品矩阵、覆盖全球主流平台、链接全球各地的 AI 协同办公平台。 评论： 公司研究 云软件服务 2025 年 12 月 09 日 | 目标价：432.9 元 | | | --- | --- | | 当前价：305.45 | 元 | 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 公司基本数据 | 总股本(万股) | 46,317.93 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股(万股) | 46,317.93 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,414.78 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,414.78 | | 资产负债率(%) | 27.08 | ...