Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The most significant changes in market sentiment this week were observed in the oil and petrochemical, and food and beverage sectors, with the oil and petrochemical sector showing a positive change rate of 58.0% [26] - The overall market valuation for major indices is high, with the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 having rolling 5-year historical percentiles of 87%, 99%, and 98% respectively [36] - The report highlights that industries with valuations above the historical 80% percentile include power equipment, electronics, light industry manufacturing, and others, while food and beverage, comprehensive, and non-bank financials are below the 20% historical percentile [37] Market Sentiment Monitoring - The weekly heat change for major indices showed that the CSI 300 increased by 3.34%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 5.98% [15] - The top five industries with positive heat change rates were oil and petrochemical, food and beverage, coal, non-ferrous metals, and textile and apparel [26] - The top five secondary industries with the highest positive heat change rates included jewelry, planting, liquor II, lighting equipment II, and oil service engineering [26] Market Valuation Monitoring - The report indicates that the current valuation of the CSI 300 is at a historical high, with a percentile of 87% [36] - Industries such as wind power equipment, aerospace equipment, and semiconductor are currently above the 80% historical percentile [40] Event Tracking - A total of 13 stock incentive events were tracked this week, with notable companies including Good Home and Blue Universe [41] - There were 37 significant shareholder changes, with 32 reductions and 5 increases [44] - 13 private placement events were reported, including companies like Guoxuan High-Tech and Yiwang Technology [46] Analyst Coverage - This week, analysts initiated coverage on 21 stocks, including companies like Juran Smart Home and Tianrun Industrial [47] - Two stocks had their ratings upgraded, namely New Dairy and Wancheng Group [49] - The report lists the top 20 stocks with the most institutional research, highlighting companies such as Yingtang Smart Control and Zhongji Xuchuang [48]

策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略周报】 风格之辩——策略周聚焦 ❖ 调整或已到位，把握配置区间。 市场三大关注点：行业轮动渐近尾声，风险偏好抑制明显，春节前市场进入存 量博弈。经过短期快速的调整，当前机构普遍关注三大方向，具体来看：1、 春季躁动以来的行业轮动或接近尾声；2、市场风险偏好受到明显抑制；3、春 节前或将进入存量博弈。短期看市场情绪难有大幅提升，结构上轮动可能出现 最后一波加速，关注高股息的稳定红利品种，以及有业绩支撑的确定性板块。 我们在 26/2/3《调整或已到位，把握配置区间》指出，因外部突发事件产生的 风险偏好冲击或已到位。历史上由微观流动性引发的牛市中回撤通常呈现进二 退一。从投交情绪看，当前上证 4000 点左右的市场温度已经接近 25/11 的 3800 点，2/2 跌停公司 130 家，超去年 11/21 的 107 家，创近半年新低；杠杆资金 过去 5 个交易日净流出 582 亿元，超过 25/11 高点的 400 亿元。本轮 ETF 和 杠杆资金流出，以及贵金属价格的大幅波动，更类似微观流动性和突发事件引 发的风险偏好抑制，此类回撤往往在短时间内快速完成下跌，不必过分担 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the aviation sector, highlighting potential opportunities in the industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel rush has begun, with air passenger volume averaging 2.313 million per day, up 5.5% year-on-year, while railway passenger volume averaged 11.792 million, down 0.7% year-on-year [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in instant retail, particularly with the launch of the "30 Billion Free Order" campaign by Qianwen, which saw over 10 million orders in just 9 hours [2][35]. - The report identifies key players in the aviation sector, including China National Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from high price elasticity and operational efficiency [2][34]. Industry Data Tracking - Air freight rates at Pudong Airport increased by 5.3% week-on-week and 8.9% year-on-year as of February 2 [7][44]. - The VLCC freight rate rose by 2% week-on-week, while the BDI decreased by 10% [7][48]. - The report highlights the growth potential in the express logistics sector, particularly for leading companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong, as well as the promising outlook for instant retail leader SF Express [7][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "performance elasticity" and "dividend value" as key investment themes for the transportation sector in 2026 [7][31]. - It recommends continued investment in the aviation sector due to expected low growth in aircraft supply and a projected 5% increase in passenger numbers [2][31]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of dividend assets, recommending companies like Sichuan Chengyu and China Merchants Port for their stable performance and potential for increased dividends [7][31].

- The report constructs a "total heat" indicator by aggregating the browsing, self-selection, and click counts of individual stocks, normalized as a percentage of the total market on the same day, and then multiplied by 10,000, with a value range of [0,10000][7] - The "total heat" indicator is used as a proxy for "sentiment heat" to track the attention levels of broad-based indices, industries, and concepts[7] - The broad-based indices are divided into groups: CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and "others," with the total heat indicators of the constituent stocks summed up to obtain the heat of these indices[8] - A simple rotation strategy is constructed based on the weekly heat change rate, buying the broad-based index with the highest heat change rate MA2 at the end of each week, and staying out of the market if the "others" group has the highest change rate[12] - The rotation strategy based on the broad-based heat change rate MA2 has an annualized return of 8.74% since 2017, with a maximum drawdown of 23.5%, and a return of 5.2% in 2026[15] - The weekly heat change rate MA2 for the main broad-based indices shows that the CSI 300 had the highest increase of 3.34% compared to the previous week, while the CSI 500 had the largest decrease of 5.98%[15] - The heat change rate MA2 for the Shenwan first-level industries shows that the oil and petrochemical industry had the highest increase of 58.0% compared to the previous week, while the electronics industry had the largest decrease of -14.1%[26] - The heat change rate MA2 for the Shenwan second-level industries shows that the top five industries with the highest positive change rates are jewelry, planting, liquor II, lighting equipment II, and oil service engineering[26] - The heat change rate for concepts shows that the top five concepts with the highest positive change rates are Huawei Digital Energy, horse racing concept, duty-free shops, Huawei Euler, and pumped storage[27] - Two simple portfolios are constructed: one selects the top 10 stocks with the highest total heat from the top five concepts with the highest heat change rates each week, and the other selects the bottom 10 stocks with the lowest total heat from the same concepts[30] - The historical performance of the portfolios shows that the bottom group can achieve an annualized return of 15.71% with a maximum drawdown of 28.89%[32]

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【金工周报】（20260202-20260206） 短期择时模型多空交织，后市或中性震荡 ❖ 本周回顾 本周市场普遍下跌，上证指数单周下跌 1.27%，创业板指单周下跌 3.28%。 A 股模型： 短期：成交量模型中性。特征龙虎榜机构模型中性。特征成交量模型看空。智 能算法沪深 300 模型看多，智能算法中证 500 模型看空。 中期：涨跌停模型中性。上下行收益差模型部分宽基指数看多。月历效应模型 看多。 长期：长期动量模型中性。 综合：A 股综合兵器 V3 模型中性。A 股综合国证 2000 模型中性。 港股模型： 中期：成交额倒波幅模型看空。恒生指数上下行收益差模型中性，上下行收益 差相似模型看多。 本周行业指数涨跌互现，涨幅前五的行业为：食品饮料、纺织服装、银行、电 力设备及新能源、交通运输，跌幅前五的行业为：有色金属、通信、电子、计 算机、传媒。从资金流向角度来说，除煤炭、纺织服装外所有行业主力资金净 流出，其中电子、有色金属、通信、计算机、传媒主力资金净流出居前。 本周股票型基金总仓位为 94.71%，相较于上周增加了 16 个 bps，混合型基金 总仓位 85.3 ...

- The short-term trading volume model is neutral[2][11] - The characteristic institutional model based on the Dragon and Tiger list is neutral[2][11] - The characteristic trading volume model is bearish[2][11] - The intelligent algorithm model for the CSI 300 is bullish[2][11] - The intelligent algorithm model for the CSI 500 is bearish[2][11] - The mid-term limit-up and limit-down model is neutral[2][12] - The mid-term up-down return difference model is bullish for some broad-based indices[2][12] - The mid-term calendar effect model is bullish[2][12] - The long-term momentum model is neutral[2][12] - The comprehensive A-share V3 model is neutral[2][13] - The comprehensive A-share Guozheng 2000 model is neutral[2][13] - The mid-term trading volume to volatility model for Hong Kong stocks is bearish[2][13] - The Hang Seng Index up-down return difference model is neutral[2][13] - The Hang Seng Index up-down return similarity model is bullish[2][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Huaxia Airlines (002928) [1] Core Insights - Huaxia Airlines is positioned as a leader in the regional aviation market, focusing on the "downstream market" that serves over 1 billion people, indicating significant growth potential [6][7] - The company has a unique business model that combines local government procurement with central subsidies for regional airlines, enhancing its competitive edge [6][8] - The report highlights the increasing government subsidies for regional airlines, which have significantly boosted the company's other income [8][9] Financial Performance - Total revenue projections for Huaxia Airlines are as follows: - 2024: 6,696 million - 2025: 7,548 million - 2026: 8,394 million - 2027: 9,439 million - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are projected at 30.0% for 2024, 12.7% for 2025, 11.2% for 2026, and 12.4% for 2027 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be: - 2024: 268 million - 2025: 591 million - 2026: 911 million - 2027: 1,214 million - The net profit growth rates are projected at 127.8% for 2024, 120.6% for 2025, 54.2% for 2026, and 33.3% for 2027 [2] Market Analysis - The regional aviation market is characterized by a significant disparity in airport passenger throughput, with a "80/20" distribution where a small number of airports handle the majority of traffic [6][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for regional aviation to grow 2-5 times in the long term, driven by increasing demand and government support [6][7][37] Competitive Position - Huaxia Airlines is the only independent airline in China that has consistently focused on regional aviation since its establishment in 2006, covering nearly half of the domestic regional flight points [6][9] - The company has a fleet of 80 aircraft, with over 60% being regional models, showcasing its commitment to this market segment [25][27] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that Huaxia Airlines has substantial growth potential in the regional market, with a target price of 17.1 yuan, representing a 47% upside from the current price of 11.60 yuan [2][9]

Group 1: Market Overview - Credit bond yields generally declined this week, with credit spreads widening passively[1] - The overall equity market was weak, while the central bank supported the liquidity ahead of the Spring Festival, leading to a stronger bond market[1] - The 5-year credit spreads for Puxin bonds widened significantly after a previous compression, while 1-2 year AA real estate bonds performed well with a substantial narrowing of spreads[1] Group 2: Divergence in Bond Performance - The overall demand structure for bank perpetual bonds may be weaker compared to Puxin bonds due to regulatory impacts and changing investment preferences[2] - After a compression of excess spreads, the coupon value of perpetual bonds has decreased, influenced by weak market trading sentiment[2] - Concerns over redemption pressures in secondary bond funds have increased due to volatility in the equity market, leading to heightened selling pressure on perpetual bonds[2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Current market conditions lack a clear trading theme, with short-term pricing factors expected to be neutral[3] - Focus on high convexity products is recommended, particularly in the 3-year and under category, where fund and wealth management demand is high[3] - For 4-5 year products, Puxin bonds near 4 years are highlighted for their high convexity, with yields around 2.5%[3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a strong buy rating for Lumentum (LITE), expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [32]. Core Insights - Lumentum's FY26Q2 results set a record with total revenue reaching $665.5 million, a year-over-year increase of over 65%, marking the second consecutive quarter of record revenue [3][7]. - Non-GAAP operating margin increased significantly by 1730 basis points to 25.2%, while non-GAAP gross margin reached 42.5%, up 1020 basis points year-over-year and 310 basis points quarter-over-quarter [3][7]. - The company reported a non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.67, exceeding expectations, with cash and short-term investments totaling $1.16 billion [3][7]. Revenue Breakdown - **Component Business**: Revenue was $443.7 million, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 17% and a year-over-year increase of 68%. The growth was driven by significant demand for laser chips and components, particularly for cloud transceiver customers [8]. - **System Business**: Revenue reached $221.8 million, reflecting a 43% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 60% year-over-year increase, primarily contributed by cloud transceiver business [9]. Business Progress - **Cloud Transceivers**: The 1.6T product line is advancing beyond expectations, with profitability significantly higher than the 800G products. The company is focusing on reducing design cycles and improving yield to enhance profitability [4]. - **Optical Communication Systems (OCS)**: Orders are coming from multiple clients, with applications across four major scenarios, and expected to continue growing into 2027 [4]. - **CPO**: The company secured several hundred million dollars in orders for high-power laser chips, with deliveries expected in the first half of 2027 [4]. - **Fiber Expansion**: Targeting opportunities in data center architecture transformation, with plans to launch large-scale CPO products by the end of 2027 [4]. Earnings Guidance - For FY26Q3, Lumentum expects net revenue between $780 million and $830 million, with a midpoint of $805 million, representing over 85% year-over-year growth [10]. - Non-GAAP operating margin is projected to be between 30% and 31%, with diluted earnings per share expected to be between $2.15 and $2.35 [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive outlook for Infineon Technologies, indicating expectations for revenue growth and profitability improvements in the upcoming fiscal periods [4][28]. Core Insights - Infineon reported revenue of €3.662 billion for CY25Q4, a 7% decrease quarter-over-quarter but a 7% increase year-over-year, aligning with seasonal trends and guidance expectations [2][8]. - The adjusted gross margin improved to 43.0%, reflecting a 2.3 percentage point increase from the previous quarter and a 1.9 percentage point increase year-over-year [2][9]. - The company anticipates revenue of approximately €3.8 billion for CY26Q1, with a projected segment profit margin in the mid to high double-digit percentage range [4][27]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Infineon achieved a revenue of €3.662 billion in CY25Q4, with a quarter-over-quarter decline of 7% and a year-over-year growth of 7%, which is close to a 14% increase when adjusted for fixed exchange rates [2][8]. - The adjusted gross margin was reported at 43.0%, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.3 percentage points and a year-over-year increase of 1.9 percentage points [2][9]. - The order backlog reached approximately €21 billion, showing a continuous improvement trend over the past six months [2][9]. Segment Performance 1. **Automotive Segment (ATV)**: Revenue was €1.821 billion, down 5% quarter-over-quarter but up 4% year-over-year, with a segment profit margin of 22.1% [3][12]. 2. **Green Industrial Power Segment (GIP)**: Revenue was €349 million, down 21% quarter-over-quarter, with a profit margin of 8.9% [3][18]. 3. **Power and Sensor Systems Segment (PSS)**: Revenue was €1.171 billion, down 3% quarter-over-quarter, with a profit margin of 17.4% [3][22]. 4. **Connected Secure Systems Segment (CSS)**: Revenue was €321 million, down 13% quarter-over-quarter, with a profit margin of 7.2% [3][24]. Demand Situation - The semiconductor market is experiencing a gradual and uneven recovery, with automotive and industrial sectors showing limited demand recovery, while AI-related applications continue to drive significant growth [3][9]. Company Guidance - For CY26Q1, Infineon expects revenue of approximately €3.8 billion, with segment profit margins projected in the range of 15%-19% [4][27]. - For FY2026, the company anticipates revenue growth compared to FY2025, with adjusted gross margins expected to be slightly above 40% [4][28]. - The company plans to invest €500 million in AI-related capital expenditures to support rapid growth in AI power business [4][30].