Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 13.20 CNY, compared to the current price of 10.76 CNY [1][12]. Core Views - The company focuses on the amino acid industry and aims to become a leader in synthetic biology, leveraging its extensive experience and capabilities in the sector [5][16]. - The company has established a strong market position in various segments, including animal nutrition amino acids, flavor enhancers, human medical amino acids, and colloidal polysaccharides, with significant production capacities [5][9]. - The acquisition of Xiehe Fermentation is expected to enhance the company's product portfolio and accelerate its international expansion strategy [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Focus on Amino Acid Core Business - The company has been deeply engaged in the amino acid industry for years, establishing a leading position with production bases in Jilin, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang [5][16]. - Current production capacities include 1.1 million tons/year for MSG, 1 million tons/year for lysine, and 450,000 tons/year for threonine, with plans for further expansion [5][25]. 2. Steady Demand Growth and Competitive Advantage - The demand for animal nutrition amino acids is steadily increasing, driven by rising consumer income and the need for high-quality animal protein [5][9]. - The company benefits from a strong competitive position, with a high concentration in the threonine industry and a significant market share in lysine [5][9]. 3. Acquisition and International Expansion - The planned acquisition of Xiehe Fermentation is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in pharmaceutical amino acids and facilitate its international market entry [10][11]. - This acquisition will allow the company to optimize its product structure and strengthen its risk resistance in the global market [10][11]. 4. Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - The company has maintained a strong cash flow, with cumulative cash dividends of 11.51 billion CNY from 2012 to 2024 and a dividend payout ratio of 62% in 2024 [10][11]. - The report forecasts revenue growth from 27.24 billion CNY in 2025 to 32.78 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding net profits increasing from 3.14 billion CNY to 3.86 billion CNY [12][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting an increase in metal prices due to rising interest rate cut expectations [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring copper smelting negotiations, which have reached a critical point with TC/RC set at 0.0 USD/dry ton, indicating ongoing tightness in copper concentrate supply and potential production cuts in the second half of 2025 [8]. - It also notes that domestic aluminum ingot inventories are showing signs of accumulation, but the expectation of interest rate cuts may support aluminum prices moving forward [8]. - The report highlights the strong performance of specific companies, such as China Hongqiao, which is expected to see a 35% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by higher sales prices and volumes of aluminum alloy and alumina products [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector includes 125 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 295.59 billion CNY and a circulating market value of about 257.00 billion CNY [5]. 2. Market Performance - The absolute performance of the sector over the past month, six months, and twelve months has been 9.1%, 15.3%, and 22.7% respectively, indicating a strong upward trend [6]. 3. Copper Industry Insights - The report discusses the copper smelting industry, noting that the TC negotiations have reached 0.0 USD/dry ton, which may lead to increased production pressure in the latter half of 2025 [8]. - It also mentions that copper prices increased by 1.3% in response to these developments and the interest rate cut expectations [8]. 4. Aluminum Industry Insights - The report tracks aluminum inventory levels, indicating a slight increase in domestic aluminum ingot inventories, with a total of 463,000 tons reported [8]. - The report suggests that the aluminum market may face challenges due to seasonal effects but could be supported by the anticipated interest rate cuts [8]. 5. Precious Metals and Small Metals - The report recommends focusing on companies in the precious metals sector, such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining and Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company, as well as small metals like tin and silver, which are expected to see production growth [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the mechanical industry, emphasizing the importance of robot application scenarios and AI-related equipment [2][7]. Core Insights - The mechanical industry is expected to enter a new recovery cycle driven by monetary and fiscal policies, with a focus on AI and automation technologies [7][20]. - Key companies in the industry are projected to experience significant revenue growth, with specific recommendations for companies like 汇川技术 (Inovance Technology), 信捷电气 (Xinjie Electric), and others [3][20]. - The demand for high-performance servers, GPUs, and advanced PCB equipment is surging due to the rapid iteration of AI models and smart hardware applications [7][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The mechanical industry comprises 633 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 50,973.14 billion yuan [4]. - The industry has shown a 27.6% absolute performance increase over the past 12 months [5]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - 汇川技术 (Inovance Technology): Expected EPS growth from 2.12 yuan in 2025 to 3.01 yuan in 2027, with a strong buy rating [3]. - 信捷电气 (Xinjie Electric): Projected EPS of 1.83 yuan in 2025, increasing to 2.78 yuan by 2027, rated as a strong buy [3]. - 法兰泰克 (Falan Tech): Anticipated EPS growth from 0.60 yuan in 2025 to 0.94 yuan in 2027, also rated as a strong buy [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the importance of focusing on companies involved in AI and robotics, particularly those with established partnerships and innovative solutions [7][20]. - Specific recommendations include companies like 柯力传感 (Keli Sensor), 东华测试 (Donghua Testing), and others in the robotics and automation sectors [7][20]. Market Trends - The report notes a significant increase in demand for automation and AI-related equipment, particularly in sectors such as automotive manufacturing and smart logistics [7][20]. - The mechanical industry is experiencing a shift towards more automated solutions, with a clear trend towards the commercialization of humanoid robots and AI applications [7][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the steel industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently experiencing stable supply and demand, but with weak market demand as temperatures rise. Although social inventory has slightly decreased, steel mill inventory has increased, leading to an overall rise in total inventory levels [3][4]. - Steel prices are under pressure but have shown some signs of rebound due to raw material price increases and good sales of low-priced steel resources. The report suggests that steel prices may continue to operate weakly during the off-season but still have some support at low levels due to low inventory and stable raw material prices [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of June 27, 2025, the prices for five major steel products are as follows: rebar at 3,181 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,514 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,205 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,607 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,371 CNY/ton, with weekly changes of -0.63%, -0.71%, -0.17%, -0.19%, and -0.78% respectively [2][15]. - The total production of the five major products reached 8.81 million tons, an increase of 124,800 tons week-on-week [2]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The average daily molten iron production from 247 steel enterprises is 2.42 million tons, with a high furnace capacity utilization rate of 90.83% [2][4]. (b) Consumption Volume of Five Major Products - The total consumption of the five major products is 8.80 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 43,300 tons [2]. (c) Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory is 13.40 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 11,400 tons. Social inventory decreased by 66,000 tons to 9.07 million tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 77,400 tons to 4.34 million tons [2][4]. (d) Profitability - The average cost of molten iron for 114 steel mills is 2,270 CNY/ton, a decrease of 23 CNY/ton week-on-week. The gross profit per ton for high furnace rebar is 145 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil is 108 CNY/ton, and cold-rolled coil is -36 CNY/ton [2][4]. 3. Industry Policy - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to optimize industrial layout and promote the exit of inefficient production capacity while increasing high-end capacity supply [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the communication industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [30]. Core Insights - Marvell's investor day highlighted a positive outlook, with significant growth expected in the data center market, projecting a potential market size increase from $75 billion to $94 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% [15][14]. - The demand for customized AI chips is expanding, driven by a diverse customer base including traditional cloud computing companies and new AI infrastructure builders [15][14]. - Xiaomi launched its first AI smart glasses, positioning them as a personal smart device for the next era, showcasing advancements in edge AI technology [18][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The communication sector saw a weekly increase of 5.53%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.58 percentage points [7][8]. - Year-to-date, the communication sector has risen by 7.36%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index, which has decreased by 0.33% [7][8]. Marvell Insights - Marvell's AI chips are transitioning from general GPU assembly to highly customized system-level collaboration, with XPU currently holding a 25% market share in AI computing [14][15]. - The fastest-growing segments within the data center market are expected to be the customized computing (XPU) market, projected to reach $40 billion with a CAGR of 47%, and the XPU component market, expected to reach $15 billion with a CAGR of 90% [15][14]. Xiaomi Product Launch - Xiaomi's AI glasses feature a lightweight design, advanced camera capabilities, and multi-modal smart interaction, aiming to enhance user experience in various applications [18][19][20]. - The glasses are equipped with a dual-chip architecture for efficient AI processing and energy management, supporting various functionalities including real-time translation and video calls [21][22]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include focusing on major operators like China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, as well as leading companies in optical modules and AI chips such as NewEase, Tianfu Communication, and Shengke Communication [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the low-altitude economy sector, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [50]. Core Insights - The China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC) held a low-altitude economy development conference, launching three major product systems: "Tianxing," "Tianwei," and "Tiangong," indicating a structured approach to expanding in the low-altitude economy sector [6][9]. - The report highlights three key companies in the low-altitude economy: Lais Information, Guorui Technology, and Sichuan Electronic Technology, which are expected to benefit from CETC's initiatives [9][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The low-altitude economy sector includes 122 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 334.069 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 286.285 billion yuan [3]. - The absolute performance of the sector over the past 12 months is 12.2%, while the performance over the last month and six months is 0.6% and -2.5%, respectively [3]. Product Systems - **Tianxing Series**: Focuses on low-altitude support, providing management systems and equipment for high-density, high-frequency flights, achieving a flight punctuality rate of 99.89% [7]. - **Tianwei Series**: Concentrates on low-altitude safety, offering comprehensive safety solutions for urban and regional areas, already implemented in various cities [8]. - **Tiangong Series**: Targets low-altitude manufacturing, with a significant market share in the domestic flight training sector [9]. Company Insights - **Lais Information**: Recognized as a leader in low-altitude digitalization, leveraging its advantages in air traffic management to expand into low-altitude services [11]. - **Guorui Technology**: Positioned to benefit from military trade and low-altitude safety systems, with innovative products like the low-altitude intelligent perception system [14][16]. - **Sichuan Electronic Technology**: Aims to become a leader in low-altitude safety, developing systems for micro-meteorological monitoring and comprehensive safety solutions [19]. Market Performance - The Huachuang Transportation Low-altitude 60 Index increased by 6.3% in the past week and 7% year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which declined by 0.3% [24][26]. - Notable stock performances include Guoxuan High-Tech (25%), New Morning Technology (16%), and Green Energy Wisdom Charge (14%) [27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three major application scenarios for the low-altitude economy from 2025 to 2027: new consumption in cultural tourism, manned transportation, and specialized uses [35]. - Key sectors to watch include main manufacturers, supply chains, low-altitude new infrastructure, and operational applications [36].

证 券 研 究 报 告 政策计算机行业周报（20250623-20250627） 推荐（维持） 小米 YU7 首销爆单，产业加速迭代升级 行业研究 计算机 2025 年 06 月 29 日 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 8.2% | 4.0% | 51.4% | | 相对表现 | 6.1% | 5.5% | 37.8% | $$\frac{1}{4}\mathbb{E}\frac{1}{4}\left(\frac{1}{2}\mathbb{E}\frac{1}{4}\right)$$ 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 联系人：周志浩 邮箱：zhouzhihao1@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 338 | 0.04 | | 总市值(亿元) | 45,343.43 | 4.40 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 39,023.53 | 4.8 ...

Group 1: Macro Analysis - Understanding the relationship between stocks and bonds is crucial for macro asset allocation decisions[2] - Current liquidity improvement is primarily driven by the migration of household deposits, differing from the monetary easing seen in 2014-2015[5] - The scale of non-bank liquidity growth in the first five months of 2025 is approximately CNY 6.2 trillion, compared to CNY 1.6 trillion in the same period of 2015[5][20] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The prevailing logic is to "look at stocks to do bonds," indicating a stock-driven market where risk appetite influences bond trading[3][4] - In the current environment, if stocks rise, bond yields are likely to follow, while a decline in stocks may lead to bond price increases[3][4] - The current market is characterized by a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds, rather than a simultaneous bullish trend in both[3][4] Group 3: Special Considerations - Unique factors this round include the difficulty for household deposits to return to real estate, leading to a stronger migration towards non-bank institutions[3] - The "stabilize the stock market" policy from the top down limits the downward expression of risk appetite in the stock market[3] - The current liquidity situation is not a result of improved economic expectations, contrasting with past trends where deposit migration followed economic recovery[8][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for long-term investment opportunities [4][8]. Core Insights - The banking sector has shown strong long-term performance, with returns exceeding those of the broader market indices over various holding periods. Historical returns since 2010, 2015, and 2020 for the banking index were 170%, 92.9%, and 39.6% respectively, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [3][4]. - The banking sector's return on equity (ROE) remains above 9%, supported by stable asset quality and a decline in credit costs, despite a narrowing net interest margin since 2020 [4][8]. - The sector's valuation is currently at a historically low level, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.85 and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.62, while the dividend yield stands at 5.21%, indicating attractive investment opportunities [25][24]. Monthly Performance Overview - In June 2025, the banking sector experienced a cumulative increase of 5.37%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.25 percentage points, ranking 9th among 31 sectors [12][5]. - The trading volume for the banking sector surged by 74.8% in June, reaching 606.9 billion yuan, reflecting increased market confidence following regulatory reforms [24][29]. - Key performers in the banking sector included Zhejiang Commercial Bank (10.71%), Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank (10.66%), and Pudong Development Bank (9.89%), driven by their low valuations and high dividend yields [17][16]. Market Environment - The interest rate environment remains low, with the 10-year government bond yield declining from 1.68% to 1.65% in June, contributing to a favorable backdrop for banking stocks [21][24]. - The report highlights a structural shift in credit demand, with direct financing increasing while traditional bank credit shows signs of decline, particularly in the residential loan segment [30][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on state-owned banks and stable joint-stock banks, emphasizing the importance of dividend strategies and asset quality [8][4]. - It recommends monitoring banks with high dividend yields and strong asset quality, such as China Merchants Bank, CITIC Bank, and regional banks with robust provisioning coverage [8][4].

Group 1 - The banking sector has shown strong performance due to continuous inflow of incremental funds, with the banking index rising by 41.2% since Q2 2023, significantly outperforming the overall market which only increased by 3.9% [13][9][11] - The "national team" liquidity support has been a key factor, with an estimated net inflow of 1,043.5 billion yuan into banking stocks from ETFs since 2024, representing 3.2% of the current free float market value of banks [13][9][11] - Long-term capital from insurance funds continues to flow into the banking sector, which is characterized by large market capitalization, stable earnings, and high dividend yields, making it attractive to investors [13][9][11] Group 2 - The financial industry's value added as a percentage of GDP has been steadily increasing, reaching 7.29% in Q1 2025 [11][29] - The net profit growth of banks has been more stable, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in 2024 compared to a decline of 14.5% for non-financial A-shares, and banks accounted for 40.6% of total A-share net profits [11][29] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks reached a historical high of 11.0% in Q4 2024, indicating robust solvency [11][29] Group 3 - The banking sector's profitability remains resilient, with the net interest margin showing relative stability during the interest rate decline cycle, decreasing from 1.74% to 1.43% [11][30] - The dividend yield for banks remains high at 5.4% as of June 20, 2025, while other dividend-paying sectors have seen declines in their yields [11][30] - The overall credit cost for banks is expected to remain stable, with the net generation rate of non-performing loans anticipated to fluctuate at low levels [12][30] Group 4 - The outlook for banking operations indicates reduced pressure on core revenue growth, with credit costs expected to stabilize [12][30] - The banking sector's return on equity (ROE) is projected to remain above 9%, with a theoretical bottom line ROE of 8.5% [12][30] - The banking sector is expected to continue to outperform private enterprises as creditors in a low-price environment, benefiting from the relative strength of their balance sheets [10][29]