Core Insights - The report highlights the shift in consumption patterns among the "new silver-haired" demographic in China, moving from a frugal approach to a focus on quality and self-indulgence in their spending habits [2][3] - This demographic, primarily consisting of individuals born in the 1960s and 1970s, is characterized by a stable income and a willingness to invest in experiences and products that enhance their quality of life [3][4] Consumption Trends - Travel has become a significant area of interest, with approximately 17.6% of older adults traveling more than three times a year, and 40.8% traveling once or twice a year, reflecting an increased focus on leisure and health [3] - The consumption of beauty and personal care products has also evolved, with a notable interest in high-quality, personalized, and technologically advanced products, as evidenced by the 2024 survey indicating that brands emphasizing safety and quality are gaining traction among older consumers [4] Service and Lifestyle Changes - The report notes a transition in lifestyle philosophies among the new silver-haired group, who are increasingly independent and exploring diverse retirement options, such as high-end retirement communities and smart home care solutions [4][5] - There is a growing trend of "buying time" through service-oriented consumption, with 25% of online grocery orders coming from individuals over 60, and a 36% year-on-year increase in delivery service orders, indicating a preference for convenience [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in comprehensive wellness and travel communities that integrate medical and ecological resources to cater to the needs of the aging population [6] - It also recommends focusing on anti-aging medical aesthetics and biotechnology sectors, as well as accelerating the application of smart elderly care technologies to enhance community services and smart home ecosystems [6]

氧化锑：1）产量：4 月产量 6470 吨，环比-3.5%，同比-32%；1-4 月 累计产量 2.7 万吨，同比-21%。2）出口：4 月出口 957 吨，环比+56 吨/+6.2%， 同比-1664 吨/-63.5%。1-4 月累计出口 4405 吨，同比-6417 吨/-59.3%。 下游需求：1）焦锑酸钠：4 月产量 2042 吨，环比-1.8%，同比-46%。 1-4 月累计产量 7792 吨，同比-50%。2）光伏玻璃：4 月产量 228 万吨，环 比+16.2%，同比-6.7%；1-4 月累计产量 795 万吨，同比-10.9%。3）化纤： 4 月化纤产量 730 万吨，环比-5.3%，同比+5.3%；1-4 月累计产量 2781 万 吨，同比+5.7%。4）ABS 树脂：4 月产量 52 万吨，环比-8.1%，同比+36.6%； 1-4 月累计产量 216 万吨，同比+33%。5）PET：4 月聚酯切片、聚酯平片、 涤纶短纤及涤纶长丝合计产量 628 万吨，环比+0.2%，同比+10.4%。1-4 月 累计产量 2356 万吨，同比+11.7%。 华福证券 行 华福证券 有色金属 2025 年 ...

证券研究报告|行业专题报告 娱乐用品行业 行业评级 强于大市（首次评级） 2025年5月20日 卡游：卡牌行业龙头，全产业链打造IP泛 消费聚合平台 证券分析师： 刘洋 执业证书编号：S0210525020001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 投资要点 2 卡游有限公司，作为中国最大的泛娱乐产品及玩具企业，同时在集换式卡牌和泛娱乐文具领域排名第一。根据卡游公司招 股说明书，卡游在2024年的收入达到了约100亿元人民币，同比增长率达到了278%，毛利率达67.3%。截至2024年12月 31日，公司拥有96项专利、34项商标的知识产权布局，还具备由70个IP组成的多元化IP矩阵，包括69个授权IP和1个自有 IP。 集换式卡牌市场增速高，中国市场具备较大增长潜力。据灼识咨询测算，中国集换式卡牌市场于2024-2029年间预计将以 11.1%的复合增长率增长，于2029年将达到446亿元。美国、中国和日本是全球主要的集换式卡牌市场。2024年，美国 、中国和日本的集换式卡牌行业市场规模分别为219亿元、263亿元和147亿元。日本和美国等发达国家的集换式卡牌行 业已有多年发展史，与此等国家的消费者相比，中国集换 ...

宏 观 研 究 华福证券 地产探底对内需拖累加深 ——经济数据点评（25.4） 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 社零增速高位回落，补贴效果分化，汽车石油下滑。4 月社会消费品 零售总额、限额以上商品零售同比分别为 5.1%、6.6%，分别较前月的阶段 性高点回落 0.8、2.0 个百分点。主要拖累来自汽车，同比增速下滑 4.8 个 百分点至 0.7%，与金融数据中居民贷款再度降温相一致，显示房地产周期 未出现明确拐点之前，居民汽车消费回升态势尚不稳固。而同样受补贴刺 激的家电音像、通讯器材，4 月零售同比分别达到 38.8%和 19.9%，均处于 一年多以来较高增长区间，补贴效果持续显现。必需品、服务持续呈现较 强韧性和较小弹性，粮油食品同比 14.0%较前月再度小幅上行 0.2 个百分 点，餐饮收入同比 5.2%，尽管较前月小幅回落 0.4 个百分点但仍处于近一 年较高增速区间。 固定投资增速下滑，房地产探底有所加快，制造业基建高位波动。4 月固定资产投资同比 3.5%，较前月回落达 0.8 个百分点，三大主要行业同 步走弱，增长中枢进一步分化。单月房地产开发投资同比-11.3%，跌幅再 度加深 1.3 个百分 ...

策 略 研 究 医疗与消费周报——AI 医疗：AI 医疗海外增长 迅猛，渗透率或打开空间 投资要点： 近期观点 1、医药指数本周关注的 6 个子行业全部录得正收益，表现良好。 策 略 定 期 报 告 2、美国 AI 医疗企业业绩和股价集体走强，AI 大模型公司加速布 局医疗领域。根据动脉智库《医疗大模型研究报告》，医疗大模型市 场规模 2019 年至 2023 年期间年均复合增长率超 100%，预计 2028 年 达 111.6 亿元。根据沙利文与头豹研究院《2024 年中国医疗大健康产 业发展白皮书》以及亿欧智库的测算，目前医疗大模型渗透率低，但 2030 年有望超过 40%。安全性、有效性验证和监管体系缺乏是商业化 推广的主要限制因素。 团队成员 分析师： 赵月(S0210524050016) zy30563@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、如何看指数冲高回落？——2025.05.18 2、市场状态高频数据库——5 月第 3 周—— 2025.05.18 3、重视核心资产风格——产业经济周观点—— 2025.05.18 风险提示 2025 年 05 月 19 日 技术研发不及预期；宏观需求变化；地缘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The state and local governments are actively promoting the construction of "science and technology innovation high - grounds" and accelerating the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds (Sci - tech bonds). It is expected that Sci - tech bonds will bring significant benefits to the cultivation of science and technology enterprises and the layout of emerging industries in various regions [10][34]. - In the bond market, different investment strategies are proposed for different types of bonds such as Sci - tech bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds, based on policy trends, market liquidity, and economic fundamentals [2][43][62]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 From a Micro - and Meso - perspective on Sci - tech Bonds 3.1.1 Local Governments Actively Build "Sci - tech High - grounds" and Accelerate the Issuance of Sci - tech Bonds - National ministries and local governments are promoting the layout and investment in the science and technology innovation industry, aiming to integrate science and technology innovation with industrial innovation. Multiple departments are jointly launching the "technology version" of the bond market to support the issuance of Sci - tech bonds [10]. - Since the beginning of this year, the issuance of Sci - tech bonds has advanced rapidly, with large - scale investors participating. The issued Sci - tech bonds have features such as low coupon rates and high subscription multiples [33]. 3.1.2 Investment Recommendations - Three types of Sci - tech bond issuers are recommended:城投 and产投 platforms in regions with strong economic and innovation potential; provincial, municipal, and some district - level equity - investment state - owned enterprises; local industrial state - owned enterprises and private enterprises with strong industrial operation capabilities and involvement in science and technology innovation fields [35]. - In general investment, focus on economic provinces with good development momentum and debt control, regions with favorable debt - resolution policies, and prefecture - level cities with strong industrial bases and financial support, and adjust the bond duration according to different regions [44]. 3.2 Weekly Views on Industrial Bonds and Financial Bonds 3.2.1 Industrial Bonds - Pay attention to 2 - 3 - year industrial bonds with good liquidity, such as those in the public utilities, transportation, state - owned real estate, and cultural tourism industries. Also, focus on relevant issuers of Sci - tech bonds in high - quality enterprises [62]. - In the coal industry, Inner Mongolia has 13 coal production capacity reserve projects approved, with a total reserve capacity of 23.6 million tons per year [62]. - Policies are being implemented to speed up the repayment of accounts receivable for enterprises in construction, real estate, and urban investment, especially those with more cooperation with central enterprises [65]. 3.2.2 Financial Bonds - This week, the yields of some financial bond varieties declined, and credit spreads narrowed passively. Brokerage bonds performed better, with larger credit spread narrowing [67]. - For Tier 2 and perpetual bonds (Two - tier and Perpetual Bonds, or "Two - Yong Bonds"), if the liquidity does not further loosen in the short term, the compression space of credit spreads is limited. It is recommended to manage liquidity well. 3 - 5 - year high - grade Two - Yong Bonds are suitable defensive varieties. Institutions with stable liability ends and high return requirements can appropriately pay attention to long - term high - grade Two - Yong Bonds [4][67]. 3.3 Primary Market Tracking - Relevant charts show the issuance, net financing, subscription, issuance cost, review and approval, and registration of credit bonds, financial bonds, urban investment bonds, and industrial bonds in the primary market [74][77][83]. 3.4 Secondary Market Observation 3.4.1 "Volume" of Secondary Transactions - Charts display the trading volume, number of transactions, trading volume by province, and trading volume by implicit rating of credit bonds, urban investment bonds, and industrial bonds in the secondary market [88][90][92]. 3.4.2 "Price" of Secondary Transactions - Charts show the weighted trading duration of urban investment bonds and the yield of various types of bonds in the secondary market [99].

2025 年 05 月 19 日 策 略 研 究 两会"爆款"主题面面观，兼论深海科技与具身 智能（人形机器人）的投资前景 投资要点： 策 略 专 题 区别于市场的主流观点，我们认为两会产业主题投资并非是一次 性脉冲机会。两会中的产业政策具有高屋建瓴之效，不仅对短期产业 主题投资有提振效果，还能够指引中长期产业发展方向，带来更持续 的超额行情。此处对全文的分析结论进行总结，以要点的形式展示主 要启示。 （一）短期特征：重视低估值与小市值 1、两会召开后的短期内，低估值主题更易获得估值的抬升。 2、市值分布与累计超额收益率的相关性，随时间推移减弱。两会 召开后的短期内小市值（<100 亿）成分股占比越高的指数，越易获得 超额收益（相对 Wind 全 A），但拉长时间看，这种相关性在减弱。 （二）持续特征：累计超额收益、业绩增速 3、在两会结束后的 T+15 个交易日短期区间，行情有短期的提振。 4、从长维度看，在两会结束后的 T+360 个交易日区间，两会产业 主题往往能跑出超额收益。仅 17、19、23 年表现不佳，或侧面反映出 "新提法"的重要性。 5、平均累计超额收益并不一定在两会当年跑出。也反映出两会主 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the importance of urban renewal actions initiated by the government, emphasizing the need for existing building renovations and infrastructure improvements, with significant progress expected by 2030 [3][13] - Short-term factors include the pressure for stable growth, the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market, and the gradual alleviation of risks associated with major real estate companies, which is beneficial for the building materials sector [3][13] - Long-term perspectives suggest that the opening of the interest rate reduction channel in Europe and the U.S. will provide more room for monetary and fiscal policies in China, with expectations for policies to stabilize the real estate market and improve housing loan conditions [3][13] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The report discusses various local government initiatives aimed at improving housing quality and supporting home purchases, including policies in Shenzhen, Nanjing, Wuhan, and other cities [3][13] - The report notes a 28.7% year-on-year increase in residential transactions in Shenzhen in April, indicating a potential recovery in the housing market [3][13] High-Frequency Data - As of May 16, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement in China is 386.2 CNY/ton, showing a 0.8% decrease from the previous week but a 10.2% increase year-on-year [4][14] - The average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1260.0 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.8% decrease from the previous week and a 25.6% decrease year-on-year [4][21] Sector Review - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.76%, while the building materials sector index fell by 0.24% [5][53] - Among sub-sectors, fiberglass manufacturing saw a 3.07% increase, while cement manufacturing experienced a 1.21% decline [5][53] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: high-quality companies benefiting from stock renovations, undervalued stocks with long-term potential, and leading cyclical building material companies showing signs of bottoming out [6][68]

行 有色金属 2025 年 05 月 19 日 业 研 究 有色金属 20250518 周报：后市稀土管制或有放松可能，看 涨氛围渐浓 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：中美关税缓和呈现短期压制，黄金长期配置价值不改。在关 税的不确定性和市场动荡背景下，美国就业增速将有放缓预期。上周末中 美经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦开展，周一中方发布会表示，会谈取得重要 共识。随即中美双方通过再5月12日统一将对彼此关税降至34%，并在6月12 日前继续讨论进一步降低至20%或更低的可能性。关税政策超预期缓和带动 市场风险偏好回暖，贵金属避险属性承压。短期而言，全球贸易政策不确 定性及全球央行购金支撑金价，整体呈现易涨难跌格局；中长期而言，全 球关税政策和地缘政治的不确定性背景下，避险和滞涨交易仍是黄金交易 的核心，长期配置价值不改。个股：黄金建议关注中金黄金、山东黄金、 赤峰黄金，低估弹性关注株冶集团和玉龙股份，其他关注银泰黄金、湖南 黄金及招金矿业；白银建议关注兴业银锡、银泰黄金、盛达资源。 工业金属：供需偏紧格局不改，整体易涨难跌。铜，短期，美联储降 息预期仍在，基本面偏紧格局延续支撑铜价；中长期，随美联储降息 ...

电力设备 2025 年 05 月 18 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 电力设备 产业周跟踪：硅料减量挺价，CIBF 固态电池引 关注 投资要点： 行 华福证券 储能板块核心观点：印巴冲突带动南亚储能需求飙升，上海发文探索 容量补偿机制。1）印度河断流导致巴基斯坦储能价格飙升，南亚储能市场 需求旺盛；2）上海：探索容量补偿机制，鼓励独立储能利用退役能源设施 站址、海风预留地建设。 电力设备及工控板块核心观点：疆电入川特高压预计 12 月开工，优傲 发布 UR15 协作机器人助力自动化迈向新高度。1）疆电送电川渝特高压直 流工程环评第二次公示，预计 2025 年 12 月开工建设；2）国家电网发布《电 力"人工智能+"白皮书》，数字化及智能化转型持续推进；3）4 月 PMI 有所回落，优傲发布 UR15 协作机器人助力自动化迈向新高度；4）傲意仿 生手终结天价假肢时代，松延动力发布新一代女性仿生机器人。 华福证券 氢能板块核心观点：各地"以用促产"出台氢能产业支持政策，柔性 氢液化装置系统、海上风电制储氢系统实现技术突破。1）辽宁省自 2025 年 5 月 16 日起实施氢车高速通行费减免政策，西安探索建设一批光伏 ...